>> the final sprint. >> the typical year, we are often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve docracy or put us at risk. this year, we are. >> with days to go before election day, president biden and democrats closing the field to voters. >> we are better off today than we are two years ago, you would not be making choices between heating and eating. >> republicans focus on inflation. arguing democrats holding onto power will hurt voters wallets. >> it is important we get the right people so we can maintain our freedoms we worked so hard for. >> i think the country is going in absolutely the wrong direction. crime is of, inflation is horrible. >> with americans so divided with which direction the country is heading.

next. >> this is washington week. corporate funding is provided by -- >> consumer cellular. additional funding provided by -- and patricia for the u.n. foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities. sandra and carl delay-magnuson, rose hirschel and andy shreeves. robert and susan rosenbaum. the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> once again from washington, moderator yamiche alcindor. >> good evening, welcome to washington week. election day is four days away. more than 35 million americans have voted early. republicans appear have the

momentum on their side as they push to have a red wave take control of the u.s. house and maybe even the u.s. senate. the latest polling indicates republicans are benefiting from voter concerns over inflation. this comes as each of the parties heavy hitters are making their final pitch to voters in key battleground states. >> inflation is a real problem right now. but the question is, who is going to do something about it? the republicans talk about it, but when you press them for an answer, things get real quiet. >> this is the yeare will take back the house, take back the senate, and in 2024, most importantly, we were -- we are going to take back our magnificent white house. >> tuesday's election is th first since the january 6 capitol attack, and many republicans are still denying the outcome of the 2020 election. that along with the violent

attack on paul pelosi, the husband of nancy pelosi, lead president biden on wednesday to sound the alarm about threats to democracy. >> we are facing a defining moment, an inflection point. we must with one overwhelming unified voice speak as a country and say there is no place, no place for voter intimidation or political violence in america. whether it is directed at democrats or republicans. no place period. >> republicans were quick to criticize the speech. here's kevin mccarthy. >> i listened to the president's speech, i don't remember hearing anything about inflation, about gas, about border, about fentanyl, about crime. >> joining me to discuss the latest on the midterms and what to expect on tuesday night and all of next week, senior national political reporter for nbc news, dave wasserman, and

are me at the table, susan page, washington bureau chief for usa today. and jeff salome, national affairs correspondent at cnn. dave, you are the data men. i will say the cook political report you moved, at least 10 house seats held by democrats. i want to pull up a graph. the graphic shows the house race. this is apart from the solid seats. how are things looking on the house side? i want to ask about the house side and what you are seeing. >> republicans have the advantage in the house. 212 seats we currently rate as leaning their way. there are 188 seats we rate as leaning towards democrats. 35 are tossup.

republicans only need six of those 35 tossups to win the house. democrats need 30 of the 35 to keep the house. republicans have had key advantages all along. not only a slight enthusiasm gap according to polls, but they benefited from redistricting, which might give them four of the five seats they need for the majority. they also benefited from a higher number of vulnerable democratic open seats. more democrats retiring in the house from swing seats. 19, 6 for republicans. republicans have had a much stronger recruitment cycle with candidates than in the senate, led by kevin mccarthy's efforts to recruit candidates who are women, minorities, veterans. 70% of republicans and the most vulnerable districts are at least one of those things. that list of vulnerable democrats includes big names. people like katie porter from california, abigail spanberger and elaine gloria, some of their national security stars.

the chair of democrats campaign committee, sean patrick maloney in new york. >> he's one to really watch because he's the head of the d triple c. i want to put up another graphic. this deals with the senate side. 48 dem senate seats, 50 gop senate seats. 122 tossup. talk about what is going on in the senate and the latest there. >> the senate will really come down to four races. arizona, georgia, pennsylvania, nevada. republicans need two to win the senate. democrats would need three to hold the senate. right now they are really tight. republicans might have the slight edge in nevada. even new hampshire is coming into play. democrats are clinging to very small leads in the polling averages in arizona and pennsylvania. georgia really looks like a tossup between democrat raphael

warnock and republican herschel walker. keep in mind, with a libertarian on the ballot in georgia, both candidates supporting considerable negative ratings, we could look at a december 6 runoff to decide control of the chamber. >> i want to come to you, you have been on the campaign trail, you went to pennsylvania, georgia, michigan, iowa, just to name some. i know there are probably more. you say one of the things you will be watching is split ticket voting. you are watching these places where a senate and governors race might determine the outcome of the races. talk about split ticket voting and what we are seeing in the gubernatorial ras? >> these elections don't happen in vacuums. midterm elections play out state-by-state. national forces play a role, but i'm fascinated by the governors ces and senate races. in pennsylvania, the democratic governor candidate, the attorney general, he's in command of the race. probably one bright spot for democrats on the entire map of

the country. will he help john fetterman, or are voters in the mind to deliver a split ticket and vote for schapiro for governor and men it awes for senate? that is also possible. i talked to voters who are interested. in georgia, brian kemp is in a stronger position than some might have thought. will he help herschel walker? will he help pull him over? in arizona, nevada, new hampshire. these governors races are fascinating. new hampshire, we have our eyes on that into this weekend. because the governor is in command of that race. the senate race is suddenly a tossup. will he pull the republican candidate over the edge for senator? maggie hassan, the democrat, they are worried about the race. all of these races are interconnected. on election night, i will watch split ticket versus coattails.

>> it is all fascinating. a record amount of money has also been spent on campaign ads. here's one from elaine gloria. >> politics used to be about serving. today, it is about winning. at all costs. if you are looking for someone who will say anything, just to win, i'm not your candidate. >> here's another from republican senator marco rubio's reelection campaign. >> the radical left will destroy america if we don't stop them. they indoctrinate children and try to turn boys into girls. they allow illegal aliens and drugs to flood america. if you speak out, they banyon social media and call you a racist. >> you are out in georgia, you have been across the campaign trail like jeff and myself and others. talk about what issues voters are talking to you about and how

much it connects to the closing arguments we are hearing in some of the ads like we just played? >> what we just heard in those ads is the difference between someone running in a competitive race and needs to win the center, and someone who is quite safe in florida, which is increasingly trending toward republicans. he's leading the polls by a wide margin. the closing arguments we see across the country are very familiar themes. many republicans, especially on the senate level, are running a very simple message that inflation is bad and it is the fault of president biden and democrats. the reality is much less simple. inflation is a phenomenon around the world, a global phenomenon, not uniquely american. it is about covid and supply chains. you cannot put that on a bumper sticke republicans are betting they can ride that disenchantment voters have and present themselves as a change party. the democratic closing argument is more complicated.

they say demracy is at risk, abortion is on the ballot. if you want it to be legal, vote democrat. they say democrats don't have a plan to deal with inflation other than cut social security and perhaps medicare. if you add all of that up, you see republicans have the simple bumper sticker slogan and democrats have this kind of scattershot series of arguments they are trying to make. in georgia, you see the dynamic with herschel walker, the senate candidate putting money into a closing ad to make the case against the democratic-controlled washington. raphael warnock, the democratic incumbent, has these series of ads trying to emphasize his bipartisan credentials, talk about how he has worked with republicans to do things like build highways and protect farmers in the south. he's also featuring testimonials from various voters, from democrats, progressives, center-right, republicans, making the case agait herschel walker. it is a more complicated

phenomenon for democrats, pushing against the political gravity against republicans who have political gravity on their side down the stretch. >> that gravity, it is really apt in this moment. also bumper sticker versus complex. we saw president biden try to walk and chew gum. a speech on democracy being a threat, but also wants to talk about inflation and reproduive rights. i've heard from some democrats, including the former campaign for bernie sanders who said he should he been talking about inflation. that is what it should have been about. what do you hear? >> this has been a complicated race. complicated because of the attacks on democracy, the supreme court decision overturning roe v. wade. but as we get in the final weeks, it has gone back to the fundamentals, the basics, things that traditionally determine midterm elections. the president's approval rating and how voters are feeling about the economy. on both fronts that is accounting for these new republican momentum that has

republicans feeling confident. republicans believe they will take the house. the only question is by how much? we will see if they are right. it is hard to predict the senate. but we have races like in a new hampshire, colorado, washington state democrats did not think would be tight, and look tight into these last few days. >> what are you hearing from white house officials and sources you have covered? at one point, the biden administration. the thinking behind the speech and impact and consequences of having a more complicated closing argument? >> it was a bit of deja vu. i was in philadelphia when he gave the speech. one speech is not going to grab everyone's attention. it wasimple for the president to go to union station in washington, because he's limited in places he can go. we talk about closing arguments. it may be a bit of a passe way to look at things.

many arguments are happening at the same time. he's on the west coast talking about the economy. it really was wednesday night talking to democrats to get the base on his same anger level and sound the alarm about democracy. there are limited things he can talk about. it is hard to talk about inflation. there is no question the headwinds are blowing. i talked to a democratic campaign manager in a prominent house race who said i sure wish the election would have been last week. >> or september 8. >> you get the sense things are not moving in the right way for democrats. from the president's point of view, he will be in pennsylvania saturday with former president obama, former president trump will be there, as well. there are limited things any president can do. my guess is the white house speechwriters are thinking about the speech after barack obama called it a shellacking, george bush called it a thumping in 2006. >> we focus on the horserace

here, especially a few days before the election. thinking about the president's speech on the attacks of democracy, there w criticism of a smart political speech to make it the moment, not the strongest argument focusing issues driving voters. but the issue has been important to him from his first decision to runor this office. an issue that means a lot to him. maybe you make a speech because it is a message to deliver, even if it is not the perfect moment politically. >> i got the sense he was trying to speak to history and trying to put his hand out and say if this election night turns into election week, election month, if we end up in another place where we are arguing as a country -- i think he was trying to say let's not have political violence and calm it down. republicans and democrats are saying it is off-base. you said something surprising to me. a big chunk of voters are still undecided, even at this very moment.

please explain that. it is four days away. we have heard so many arguments. what is going on? >> in all of these polls of the hottest senate and house races, there's six or 7% of people who have not tuned in to their congressional vote choice. and there are people who make up their minds the day before or day of the midterm elections. their decisions could vary by geography. democrat numbers are holding up better relative to 2020 in red and purple states who have seen big fights over abortion, such as michigan and kansas and pennsylvania. perhaps new hampshire. democrats are facing double trouble in blue states where they are double incumbents and control federal and state government. places like new york and oregon, california. even connecticut and rhode island have house seats at risk because voters are holding democrats doubly responsible for everything they are dissatisfied with.

not only pocketbook, but crime and homelessness. and abortion rights are not under threat in those states. it has not been as potent an argument for democrats. if your top issue is abortion or immigration, i can pretty much guarantee you will bow, and i can tell you with a high degree of certainty which party will vote for. if you are still undecided, you are looking at this choice through a simple lens. if i'm feeling safe in my community and if things are expensive. biden's approval rating on handling the economy among independent voters has been in the mid tide 20's. i think republicans have more upside with the cohort of persuadables who remain. >> he wrote an interesting story this week about the naacp calling radio stations to stop airing an ad by a conservative group america first legal. it is accusing the left and some democratic leaders in promoting racism against white people.

what do we know about this ad and what has come from the naacp calling for these ads to be taken down? >> on the second point, i checked in with my source before the show. they mentioned nine of those radio stations agreed to take the ad down. the letter by the naacp has gotten results. what you see is an ad by a group led by a former trump advisor who is known to be combative, very pug nations, trying to escalate this rhetoric. it is having an impact because race and attitudes towards race are probably the single biggest fault line in american politics. it dates back to 2015 when the candidacy with donald trump was in part based on some rather explit racial appeals, mainly to working-class white voters, that they had been forgotten and looked down upon in ways we haven't really seen before as a dog whistle. it represents an escalation of that. this new ad explicitly accuses

racism of white people. they did not match up to reality, the claims made about the president and vice president that were false or taken out of context. regardless, it is something certain figures on the right see as effective and a way to respond to the fact -- democrats have been speaking a little bit more directly to disadvantaged and marginalized groups in this country, african-americans, latinos, talking about structural racism. rather than responding by incorporating those argument's, some republicans have decided if you accuse us of being racist, we will accuse you of being racist against a different set ofeople. >> interesting they think it will be effective. when you are not in georgia chasing candidates, you are in the capitol building. i have heard about the jockeying taking place on the republican side with wanting to be house speaker kevin mccarthy, but house minority leader kevin mccarthy making his decisions and republicans making plans

about launching investigations. i have also heard with people on the democrat side to see what might be done if house speaker nancy pelosi leaves. what are you hearing? >> very likely next speaker for republicans to take control of the house is kevin mccarthy. he's in line for the job. he spent the last two years making every decision on the basis of what is best for republicans in this election and what is best for my prospects of becoming speaker of thhouse. a republican house, i would say a few things. the republican house in president biden, we will see more brinkmanship on the government. the appropriations bill and government funding bills will become me contentious because republicans are going to have demands, they will want things on immigration and the border wall, spending cuts. the see issues like government funding. the debt limit, as well. a much more potent weapon. potentially more dangerous.

as leverage points for them to get what they want on a policy matter they would not ordinarily be able to get through the normal legislative process. we expect a lot of investigations of the biden administration. that is in the house of representatives. on the epublican side. on the democratic side, there is a big question about what the top three leaders, including speaker pelosi, do, especially if democrats lose control of the house. they are all in their 80's. there's been a moment democrats have been leading to a generational transition, and everyone is asking when it will happen. it is only a matter of time. if democrats lose the house, there is an expectation, some sources are expecting all of those three top democrats to be pressure into stepping down and a new generation of democratic leaders to rise to the top. the man who is most likely to rise to the top is hakeem jeffries. he's positioned himself well for that job, he's gotten support and respect from various sides

of the caucus. in a transition like that, some democrats also said those who are currently lower ranked than him are unlikely to shake the tree, unlikely to cause even more of a disruption than would already be created from someone like speaker pelosi who has lead for 20 years, stepping down. >> are there any bright spots for democrats? a lot of momentum and the wind is at the back of the republicans. is there anything you can say about what the polls are showing? >> it is fairly miraculous democrats are in the game in the senate at all, given president biden is at a 43% approval rating nationally. it is a testament to how weak republican candidates are and how many liabilities they have in georgia, arizona, and new hampshire. yet the house, republicans are probably in the neighborhood of picking up between 15 and 30 house seats, more than 25 or 30

would be a huge wave for republicans, considering they are starting from a higher floor than 1994 or 2010. yet, democrats best hope is probably to minimize losses to the teens. they have a good chance of holding onto seats in places like grand rapids, michigan, toledo, ohio, even alaska, because republicans nominated very flawed and unpopular candidates in those races. >> i want to split my two minutes. i want to talk about nancy pelosi. there have been conspiracy theories about paul pelosi's attack and questions about her future. >> in 20, when she was running to a challenge to her leadership, she said she said she would only serve at maximum two more times as leader of house democrats, which means is is the end of her remarkable tenure as leading house democrats. i think that promise still holds.

although she has been a instant lame-duck by talking about it. i think that was the case even before her husband was attacked in this horrific way in something that kind of caused concerns for every american to see political violence on either side as we saw in san francisco. >> what is going on with former president trump reporting he is eyeing november 14, or sometime before december to announce his presidency? >> at this point, it would be more of a surprise for him not to run. he's been inching ever close to it. i was with him in iowa at a rally on thursday. he said he's probably going to do it, get ready. look, he's expecting do it. that is why he's holding 4 rallies in five days leading up to election day. he has something in common with president biden. he's not wanted in every place on the campaign trail, either.

so he's not really the hottest battleground, but in terms of his own future, he is trying to stop other republicans from running against him or announcing. i'm not sure that will happen. most interesting, look to florida governor ron desantis who is eyeing a trip to iowa. keep an eye on all of that next week. >> thank you so much to our panelists for joining us and sharing your reporting. tune in saturday to pbs news weekend for a look at a swing california district that could determine which party controls and wins control ofhe house. thank you for joining us. good night from washington. >> corporate funding for washington week is provided by -- >> for 25 years, consumer cellular has been offering no contract wireless plans designed to help people do more what they like. our customer service team can help find the plan that fits you. to learn more, visit consumercellular.tv. >> additional funding provided by -- koo and patricia yuen

through the yuen foundation, committed to bridging cultural differencein our communities. sandra and carl -- rose hirschel and andy shreeves. robert and susan rosenbaum. the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. ♪ ♪

announcer: major funding for "tell me more with kelly corrigan" is provided by the quad family foundation, susan and david tunnell donor advised fund through the san francisco foundation, and by the gordon and llura gund foundation. people who know it back to front will tell you the constitution is in some ways miraculous. 39 men, one as young as 26, another as old as 81, debated for 3 months every word in a document that still guides our government today. they distribut power between two kinds of lawmakers-- federal and state judges and one president. they built in checks and balances, knowing some of us will grasp for power by any means. and ironically, the document itself assured rights to one group over all others. and though amended,