♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... woman: architect. bee keeper. mentor. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. george: actually, you don't need vision to do most things in life. the technology forward. i think that's the most rewarding thing. people who know, know bdo.

narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. and by contributions to this pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. announcer: and now, "bbc news". ♪ >> hello. you are watching "the context." on bbc news. >> this is an says a lot of qu's been getting. but it leaves a lot of other questions unanswered because we still don't know where he is. >> what has to be remembered is problems in russia do not translate automatically or rapidly intoanba attonficeeldvdn army. >> we gave putin no excuse to

blame this on the west tornado. he made --we made clear we were not involved. we had nothing to do with it. this is part of a struggle within russian -within the russian system. ♪ >> welcome to the program. we've heard from the fed of the wegner group. he didn't want to topple russia's government and his rebellion over the weekend. we are due to hear from the russian president, vladimir putin, and the next few hours. we will try to work out what it all means. a chinese spy balloon, flying over the u.s., the bbc has found evidence of more flying over japan and taiwan. a new development in the most notorious racist murder, the killing of stephen lawrence, the bbc is naming a suspect. and elton john closes this year

and a record-breaking way. we have all the reaction. we will start in russia after those extraordinary events over the weekend. in the last half an hour or so, we've been told to expect statements from vladimir putin. that information, coming from various news agencies. we will keep across that for you if and when he does speak. we will of course bring them to you. we have already heard from the head of the wagner group. in his statements, that he made in an audio message, he shed some light on what happened over the weekend. he says it was not to overthrow the government when he took his mercenary soldiers up the russia. he does admit shooting down russian jets and retaliation he claims for air strikes against his soldiers. our russia editor reports from moscow. reporter: after a weekend of

high drama, there was no sense of victory in the russian capital. the mutiny had failed. but what next for president putin? and what would the russian authorities tell the russian people about what had happened? vladimir putin said nothing today about the mutiny. he was shown discussing engineers. it's not clear when this was reported. but the head of the wagner mercenaries has not been seen in public since saturday and talk today about his rebellion -- talked today about his rebellion. in an audio message, he claimed is fighters did not want to overthrow russia's government. it would be the protest he said, we way of avoiding the destruction of the wagner group. russian officials have denounced him as a traitor. t the prime minister also

blamed the west for what had happened. pressure he said had faced a -- russia he said had faced challenge to its ability, when need to rally around the president. state tv was on message. a presenter claims that russians had united to support vladimir putin and denounced treachery. she said, the traitor did a good job for western propaganda. but at the newspaper kiosk, a different reaction. it was less blame the west, and much more, where is russia heading? russian newspapers are really interesting on this today. even though the media landscape here is heavily controlled by the state, some of the papers are saying things the kremlin is not. for example, this paper says that with the mutiny, russia has demonstrated its vulnerability

to the whole world and to itself. this paper calls it an unprecedented challenge to vladimir putin, with long-term consequences for russia. events that seemed to take the kremlin by surprise. two decades in power have made vladimir putin too confident. >> you do lose your sense of reality. in a giant country like this, when everything is in the center and everybody is doing everything at your whim, he would be an incredible person not to lose your marbles this way. reporter: but don't write off vladimir putin under pressure. one thing he's learned since coming to power is how to stay there. >> in just a moment, we will hear from our eastern europe correspondent, sarah rainsford. first let us get the latest from our international editor who is in kyiv. reporter: anything that is bad

for president putin and russia is good, as far as the ukrainians are concerned, from president zelenskyy, right down through his chain of command. but what has to be remembered is problems in russia do not translate automatically or rapidly into advances on the battlefield for the ukrainian army. since they started their offensive earlier on this month, they have recaptured a number of villages from the russians. but what they have not managed to do yet and they have not really tried either is to make those vital, tactical breakthroughs that would be necessary, if they want to change the course of the war, which is of course their objective and nato's, as well, the people giving them this material support that they require. now, as for the russian army, it's still a question as to whether or not what's happening

in moscow and in russia affects. the fighters of the wagner group have been ruthless and at times effective. and it is possible that without them, the russian army might lose whatever capacity it has left -- not much -- to maneuver and counter attack. in any way, armies do not fight well if their political masters are at each other's throats. so, for president putin and the people who support him in the kremlin, a big priority has to be trying to restore his authority. after the events of the weekend. and that for him right now is the biggest challenge. >> thanks to jeremy bowen. we said right at the top of the show that we are expecting to hear statements from vladimir putin. we are keeping an eye on the

feeds coming through to us. whilst we wait for that, let's get the latest from sarah rainsford. reporter: this is the attempt to answer a lot of questions the wagner's group's leader has left. he left a bit of a hint because intervened to resolve the crisis over the weekend. as to what caused the crisis, the leader was making clear that he was not attempting to overthrow the electoral authorities of russia. this was not a challenge he was trying to make clear to vladimir putin hself. he pains all of it as a fight with the russian defense ministry. the result of a huge feud that's been brewing for a long time between him and the defense minister. he claims that it was triggered,

is march on moscow, when the russian defense ministry fired on positions of his wagner group inside ukraine although we've never seen any proof of that. he's trying to say that this was on a challenge to mr. putin. i have to say that the very fac of this march and the details of what happens, they have i think dented the authority of vladimir putin. he has a president who makes control and stability his by words and those have been challenged very directly by what happened over the weekend. i think it is important that today we discovered that the criminal charges against the wagner group's leader are enforced, there's a case out for him, which is potentially what he is lying low and we don't know exactly an awful lot about where he is. >> thanks to sarah rainsford for that. as you can see as sarah finished talking, the picture changed. we are getting these pictures

in from an agency, we don't have complete control over them. but at the moment you can see that is a frozen image. we will keep it across that feed and see if anything starts happening because we have been warned to expect som statements from vladimir putin. in the hours ahead. we've also heard from afp news agency, saying belarus -- the leader of belarus is also expected to make an address very soon. a quote there is through the telegram channel, the messaging app, those close to the president saying that we are expected to hear from the leader of belarus. but we do now have vladimir putin speaking on those feeds coming in. let's take a listen. >> [speaking russian]

so this is to confirm these are the pictures of vladimir putin we were told to expect, and his statements, speaking right now. we do not have a live english translation of this. we are being told this is a taped replay. so this is not live right now. but this is the first time we are seeing him speak. we are told to expect some statements. this is him, but we don't have an english live translation on this. we are working on that. we are getting some lines out of the reuters news agency on it, very brief so far. vladimir putin, saying that society has consolidated. vladimir putin, saying in this

message that we are watching right now, that society has consolidated. so, the reuters news agency, getting that translation. as those lines come through in drips and drabs, we will bring them to you. this is clearly a very significant statement. this is a statement on state tv in russia. many people have been waiting throughout the weekend and throughout the day today to hear from vladimir putin. to hear his reaction since the events of the weekend with the wagner group. heading back to their bases. we want to know exactly how he is now framing this. how he framed it over the weekend was mutiny, punishment, and betrayal. we don't know the details of what deal was done.

with the wagner group. but we know the head of the wagner group turned his trip around. he never intended to topple but a mere -- topple vladimir putin or the government. it was a military leadership, he was unhappy with their decision making on their performance, he was unhappy with the wagner group, and he said he had to make his point. he did shoot down some russian armed helicopters. but then, we don't know where he is. we know the audio message was released, but we don't have any video of the wagner group's leader. these are the statements we are watching right now. i taped replay of vladimir putin. we are getting more details on what he's actually saying. he says, all necessary decisions to neutralize the threat were

taken at the very beginning. the mutiny would not have been suppressed -- i will correct that, the mutiny and would have been suppressed anyway. organizers realize their actions were criminal. so we have for the first time vladimir putin addressing what happens peer addressing the mutiny, in his words. -- addressing the mutiny, in his words. saying the mutiny would have been suppressed anyway. and the organizers, will presume that is the head of the wagner group, realized their actions were criminal. so, that translation,omin cg hee bbc. we will see if there's any more lines coming as this translation continues.

putin, saying -- another line here from reuters. most of the wagner group are also patrons. so some concession it seems. clearly not a straight forward message from vladimir putin. there is some nuance going on he in his words. he thanks the commanders and soldiers of the wagner group who avoided bloodshed. and that was the leader's message as well. he says he turned his group around two aboard bloodshed and avoid russian blood being spilled. he thanked the commanders and soldiers of the wagne group, who avoid bloodshed. so some significant concessions, it would appear. let's see what other lines are coming through. we will bring you a bit more, just as this message ends.

as we lose those feeds from russia, what we will do is work on that translation into english. just as that was playing out, my colleague has been sending through some lines of translation. we have a couple more -- one more significant one to bring you. they wanted russia to lose and our society to drown in blood but they miss calculated. -colored security services. those who stayed loyal to their oath. all necsary decisions to neutralize the threat were taken at the very beginning. saying the mutiny would've been suppressed anyway. and organizers realized their actions were criminal. so some really interesting lines. they are still coming.

writers saying vladimir putin said, i promise those of wagner who want to go back to belarus, i will keep my promise. so, a lot to digest and a lot to pick through. we will do exactly that now. we can speak to sergey, a professor of international relations at johns hopkins university. thanks so much for coming on the program. >> thank you for having me. >> thanks for standing by as we were getting the message there of vladimir putin, with little bits of translation. we will not get a complete picture for a few minutes. what is your immediate reaction to what you're hearing? >> i did not hear the -- anything remarkably new in this message. he came down hard on the wagner group's leader and the wagner group will not be able to operate in russia. i did not hear the entire message. that kind of connects to what the leader was saying earlier today about wagner having to

relocate to belarus which of course raises interesting questions. but we do have at the moment is very strange love-hate triangle, all playing in different ways. it'll be interesting to see where this leads. >> what do you make of the fact that he's having to make this statement at all? >> clearly putin has been under some stress. this was an unprecedented challenge to his authority. the fact that wagner troops marched almost all the way to moscow. 200 km from moscow is where they stopped and turned around. that simply could not be tolerated in putin's system. this kind of challenge was completely unprecedented. he had to come down hard so he declared him a traitor and said he had stabbed him in the back. what is interesting is that lukashenko interfered and effectively rescued the leader.

sarah rainsford said this has not been confirmed. we have not seen the leader on the ground in belarus. but it does raise lukashenko's standing in this relationship. he was basically sometimes a difficult clients but a client of moscow, now he seems like he is saving russia from bloodbath. he is saving russia from a civil war. so that is an interesting position with lukashenko and how he emerges from this situation. i think putin emerges weakened. his statement and the activity over the last 24-48 hours confirm that. >> to your point there, this reinforces it, we have got another line of translation here in the bbc, quoting putin as saying this, i think lukashenko for his efforts to resolve the situation peacefully, but it was society's unity that played the

decisive role. your reaction to that. on the one hand giving a little bit of credit where i presume he thinks credit is due. but fundamentally he is praising the russian people. >> exactly. one word that he used his a word -- is a word that has nenglish translation, smuta, upheaval. there is a russian collective fear of this upheaval in russia, this smuta, he is saying that there could be an upheaval or civil war, so it is great that the society united around the end that is where he talks about russian unity. so he is playing on russian fears of uncertainty. he is playing on the fear of the civil war, in order to try to shore up his authority. but there's no question that the authority has been badly undermined. >> because so much of his power has been based on this

idea of strength and attraction and almost the idea that there is not any option other than him or chaos, no we've seen a little bit of chaos here. does that whole argument disintegrate, or is there still a lot more to go? >> he is still trying to play on the same theme. saying if it weren't for me, you would have chaos every day. and there is this reference to smuta, the occasional reference to the 1990's. whether this is sustainable over the longer-term is a difficult question because i think eventually the russian people will have to say, excuse me, you were supposed to guarantee stability, economic prosperity, and what do we have now? we have an actual armed mutiny. that is unheard of. certainly in recent times. that will lead to very difficult questions about putin's rule. >> i want to get your thoughts on where this leaves the wagner

group. this is one more line of transition from afp, vladimir putin saying, wagner mutineers can join the army, or go to belarus. your thoughts on that first and where this leaves the wagner group now. >> this was part of putin's regional plan to integrate wagner into the ministry of defense. that of course is the reason that the leader struck out, he did not want to be subordinated to the ministry of the -- of defense by july 1. he is saying those who want to join and remain in russia can do so and the rest can go to belarus. i see this as a strange concsion by putin that does demonstrate his weakness, i.e., what does that show about his ability to control the situation? we are used to thinking of putin as somebody who is able to control his arminians. he is no longer able --

his own minions. he is no longer able to control them and now he cannot even deal with a rebellion and allowed the free exit of those who were rebelling against him. that leaves lots of questions. what will they do in belarus? will they have access to russian equipment? will be operated in africa? will they go back to ukraine? lots of unanswered questions. >> let's look to the head of the wagner group. where does this leave him now? i don't mean geographically. we don't quite know that at the moment. let vladimir putin, given everything you know of his pattern of behavior, what do you think will be his decision? >> well, look, if we've learned anything about foods and over the time he's been in power, is that he does not accept treason. he accepts some competence, -- some incompetence, that is ok.

but he does not accept treason and those who have crossed them in this we have paid the price. the question is, will he be able to reach the wagner group's leader, under the protection of lukashenko? that is where this is unclear. if i was the wagner group's leader, i would be certainly concerned about my future. >> absolutely fascinating. thank you very much for coming on and standing by, for listening to that statement, and picking through each bit as it came out. we really appreciate your time and your expertise. thank you very much. >> thank you for having me. >> just before we take a short break, i want to reiterate what we have heard in the last 20 minutes or so. we were given a short notice -- a short heads up we were to expect some statements from vladimir putin. this would be the first time

we've heard from him since the decision by the wagner group to effectively turn around and head back to their bases. all throughout the day, there s a silence from vladimir putin on this issue, on what happened. then suddenly we got warning that we were going to hear from him and we did, local and state tv in russia, and russian. obviously we didn't have the direct english translation at the time. we are working on that and when we get it, we will bring it to you. what i had is my colleagues here translating on the news agency reuters, translating bits and snippets of what he said, as he went along. some of the highlights include the necessary decisions to neutralize the threat were taken at the very beginning and he said the mutiny would've been suppressed anyway. he organize -- the organizers realized their actions were criminal. he also thank the

commanders and soldiers of the group, who avoided bloodshed. we heard from the head of the wagner group. that was his intention, in turning around. plenty more to pick through. we will bring you those latest lines from vladimir putin. do stay with us. this is bbc narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. and by contributions to this pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. ♪ ♪

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♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... woman: architect. bee keeper. mentor. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. george: actually, you don't need vision to do most things in life. it's exciting to be part of a team driving the technology forward. i think that's the most rewarding thing. people who know, know bdo.