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narrator: pediatric surgeon. volunteer. topiary artist. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". >> hello. i am christian fraser. this is the -- this is "the context." winds of 120 miles an hour, flooding rains, 300 millimeters, that will bring inundation. >> this tampa bay water that comes through downtown, it is literally three steps away from approaching the road, which to my right behind me here, those

are people's homes. >> still have time to do that if you are in this big bend area, but time is running out very rapidly. >> it is great to be prepared. it is nice that they are prefilled. especially when i'm by myself. >> we are prepping and hoping for the best. ♪ christian: hurricane and dalia barreling toward florida's gulf coast. supercharged by the warmer waters in the gulf, the authorities say it is life-threatening. we'll bring you live footage from the scene. also the grim task of counting the dead in ukraine. the counteroffensive taking its toll. we have a special report from the front line the world's biggest emissions charging scheme for drivers has today come into force in london. drivers of older polluting vehicles will pay 12 pounds $.50 to drive into london barrows.

good evening. this hour, florida's gulf coast is feeling the outer bounds of hurricane idalia. evacuation orders are in place now in 21 counties north of tampa, and what we call the big bend area of florida. the system started as a tropical storm, but it is rapidly intensifying over the unusually warm waters in the gulf. through the day, it has been moving north from west cuba, going -- growing from a category one hurricane possibly to a category three, winds that could reach 110 miles an hour. it is the storm surge that has the authorities most concerned, particularly around the cedar key and some of the very low lying areas. they are predicting waters could rise as much as 12 feet. here is our forecaster with more. >> western cuba has been hit with strong winds and flooding rain, as tropical storm idalia

passed to the west. we can take a look at idalia on the satellite picture. since giving past western cuba and heading into the gulf, it has strengthened and is now a hurricane. one of the big worries about hurricane idalia is that it worked -- at is that as it works into the gulf, it will work across warm seas, where temperatures across the border in the gulf of mexico are abe average. particular close to the coast of the u.s. where sea temperatures are around two or three degrees above average. it is the warm seas that power these hurricanes, and likely will lead to a period of rapid intensification for hurrican idalia. the storm is likely to have winds of 120 miles an hour with stronger gusts spanning up to 150 miles an hour. flooding rain, three millimeters in places. and a big storm surge, two to four meters high. where that coincides with high tides, that will bring inundation. the threat of extreme rainfall is not just limited to florida.

it also will be across parts of north and south carolina, with several hundred millimeters of rain on the way. rapid intensification from hurricane idalia, landfall in florida on wednesday, with damaging wind gusts, a storm surge, and flooding. a member of the risk of flooding is not just for florida, but it will extend to north and south carolina over the next few days. christian: not a storm to take lightly. in the last hour, we have had this update from the governor, ron desantis. >> this storm will impact inland counties, and particularly in northern florida, you are going to see significant impacts. the contours of that will determine -- will be determined by the path of the storm. but i think you are doing the right thing to be prepared. we are talking about counties like columbia, we are talking about counties like hamilton, madison, all of those counties are going to be affected by hurricane idalia. we are monitoring some of these

computer models. you may see the national hurricane center update, the track at either the 2:00 or 5:00 advisory. there are models suggesting this will take a westward shift, that could bring it in two areas like jefferson and leon and will call area, and peoplhave known this is a possibility. i know all of those counties are making preparations. . but that is something to look out for. there is still a range of uncertainty here. they will be updating this track as the day goes on. and we will have probably better resolution on that as we get to the two orf -- to the 2:00 or 5:00 advisory. that is a possibility. we have been in contact with these officials, and i know people have been making preparations. christian: in tampa forest, north america correspondent john sudworth. i can see behind you, it is the calm before the storm.

in the next few hours, temple will get the out of bounds of this hurricane, and it could be a rough night. john: that's right. you could be forgiven thinking it is a normal day in tampa. a few minutes ago, we had the first band of rain move through, very heavy downpour. the eye of the storm is a few hundred miles off over the gulf of mexico, moving slowly. and that in itself is a concern because the slower hurricane moves, the more sustained the damage is likely to be. authorities predicting landfall sometime tomorrow morning, local time. as you have mentioned, it is not just the speed of the winds with the storm expected to intensify to a category three, winds well over 100 miles an hour. but really the storm surge that they are most concerned about. this concern that those wind speeds will push water from the

gulf of mexico up along florida's gulf coast, into that area that you mentioned. the big bend area of the state, where the panhandle meets the gulf coast. and no concern, focus there, and those warnings to residents in the path of the storm to get out while they still can't. christian: 12 feet, that is big. that is total inundation for very low lying areas on the big bend in florida we can see in the live box there, that big bank of gray sky heading tards northwest florida. at the moment, the sea looks quite calm, but that will not be the picture in five or six hours time. john: it's not at all. we have been to some of the emergency shelters today. we have seen residents arriving. they are a trickle at the moment but authorities say they expect that to pick up as we move into this evening. the advice at the moment is residents who can should seek

shelter with friends or relatives. the emergency shelters are really an option of last resort, and we have -- we have seen people taking them, including homeless people here in the city of tampa who have nowhere else to go. the police and the other services out on the streets warning them that they need to take shelter. i was here last year when hurricane ian came ashore further south along this coast from where i am. and again, though real damage was caused by the storm surge. a 12 foot storm surge along an area of low lying coast can real cause significant damage. . that is what we saw this time last year. and that is what the authorities are most concerned about today. christian: talking about hurricane ian last year, and the damage it did around the fort myers area which we all remember, presumably, if there is something like that over the next 24 hours, that is going to compound problems for the state.

rebuilding work, and i think they spent something in the region of $19 billion already, that is still underway. john: yes. 150 lives lost during hurricane ian. many of them as a result of that serious flooding. as you say, many residents still pickg up the pieces of their lives, struggling with insurance payouts. here we are with another event. this one coming ashore slightly further north, but that does not mean that they will be spared. strong winds expected along the gulf coast. this is a nightmare for people who live through -- lived through en at the end of last year. the concern once again in terms of the bigger picture, the bigger context, you mentioned it already, are these unusually warm sea temperatures. they don't cause hurricanes but once a hurricane has begun to develop, those warm water

surface temperatures add power to the hurricane. again, that is what the scientists are saying this time around. at the moment it is a category one hurricane out in the gulf. because of those warm waters, they are expecting it to intensify. the prediction is that it comes ashore, it will be a category three storm. that is a significant weather event. and the authorities are asking everybody who can to listen to the warnings. as i say, if you are in danger, do everything you can to get out of the way. christian: thank you very much for that. let's stay in tampa and speak to the hurricane climatologist, nick, who has been watching this for us. good to see you. that point john was making reference to. warm nature of the waters in the gulf of mexico, what is that doing to the hurricane? nick: first, thank you for having me. as john said, the sea surface

temperatures in the gulf of mexico have been running two to three degrees celsius above normal. they are about 30 to 32 degrees celsius, depending on where you are. that provides a little more fuel to the storm. tropical cyclones and hurricanesthey like having warm water as their fuel. that can lead to significant intensification. christian: the cone we watch so often on our screen, which seems to be heading northwest, over that cedar key area around the big bend of clore -- of florida, not the big population centers. do we have full confidence in that or do sometimes hurricanes take a swing in a direction you don't expect? nick: certainly historically, there have been storms that take on a last-minute jog somewhat unpectedly. however, most of our computer models used by the national hurricane center have been pretty consistent in the big

eric -- in the big bend. . it is to remember a hurricane is not a point. impacts can spread well beyond the center. for example, right nowtropical storm force winds are up 40 miles an hour greater and are extending 250 miles east of the storm center. while the direct landfall is likely to be in a less populated area, impacts from the storm are expected to be significant in the tampa area, in orlando, potentially even to jacksonville and northeast florida. christian: we are obviously focusing on idalia because that is the one that is coming in the next 24 hours. but we are looking at pictures of this monster hurricane out in the atlantic, hurricane franklin, which is just enormous. already a category four hurricane. it is 500 miles across. that is almost the size of the state of ohio. what is that doing end is that heading in the direction of florida as well?

nick: no. thankfully hurricane franklin, while it is impacting the east coast mostly in the form of rough surf, large waves, and rip currents, it is not going to come to the united states. it is expected to bring tropical storm force conditions to the island of bermuda. they are under a tropical storm warning. however, a direct hit on bermuda looks unlikely from franklin. it is expected to continue off into the central atlantic, and it will start to encounter cooler waters. franklin is expected to weaken trends -- before it transitions into a latitude cyclone. christian: that is something. talk to me more generally about the hurricane season. obviously florida is well used to florida -- two hurricanes coming in at this time of year. are you worried they are getting bigger and stronger? nick: certainly with climate change and anthropogenic warming, there has been discussion over the future of

tropical cyclones. certainly we would expect on average, if water is warmer, all else being equal, stronger hurricanes. storms have more fuel and a greater potential of intensity. ocean water and temperatures, that is one piece of the puzzle. certainly we would want to look at changes to vertical wind shear, changes with wind speed and direction with height, and other chairs that could impact tropical cyclone development innsity. we have seen since 2017 a large number of strong storms, not just impacting florida, but as well as impacting other parts of the world as well. christian: big night for you, thank you for sparing us some time. appreciate it. nick: thank you. christian: if you have watched the campaign ads of those republicans running to become the next president to the united states, you will spot a familiar theme. the former vice president mike pence, senor tim scott, florida governor ron desantis, the former u.n. ambassador nikki haley, all of them say if

elected, they will expand the oil production they claim joe biden has shut down. >> hey, everybody. mike pence here. remember to dollar a gallon gas? i do. then joe biden became president of the united states and launched his war on energy. >> should be in the habit of energy addition. we want all forms of energy. we don't want to go to any other foreign countries to get our energy. >> we are going to open up all energy production. we will be energy dominant again in this country. >> america would be the leading country on earth if we had a president who believed in our national energy resources. if we have to, we would rise to the top, because we have more energy when you add oil, gas, and coal. christian: drill deeper into the facts, there is a hole in the republican argument. they may blame biden's green agenda for higher prices on the forecourt, but in come to that is not the root of it.

. if you look further, america is in fact pumping oil at a faster rate than ever before. u.s. oil production is forecast to average an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year. that will keep growing to 13.1 million a day in 2024. the president will most likely point to this hurricane we have been talking about, and go tell the media that climate change is an existential crisis. evidence suggests the world's biggest polluter is a sleigh walking, to cut oil and gas production. i am joined by the oil and gas policy reporter at politico. this was your story we saw this morning. the figures are quite startling. when you look at it, it is going in the wrong direction. ben: yeah. the u.s., to a certain extent, when you count oil and gas, we have energy coming out of our ears. we are supposed to hit a record high of production next year.

the issue is the economic indicator that voters care about is gasoline prices. those have been going up at the end of the summer. that is when -- what republicans are trying to hone in on. people paying at the gas pump. but they are pointing at the wrong causes for that. i'm trying to make it a political game and it is really a market issue. christian: they are probably pointing to the campaign pledge he made in 2022 stop new drilling on federal land. has he done that? ben: no. he has not. that was a campaign promise that went on the wayside. i remember talking to democrats in congress when the promise was getting banding about by biden. democrats said, i don't know if he means it, we will see. fast forward a couple years later, drilling is still going on here. it is interesting that at any time the biden administration does anything that might result in less drilling here, the trade

association and the oil industry jump on it. it goes to court, and the drilling continues, as if nothing ever got proposed. christian: as you say, you have energy coming out of your ears. drill for oil, frack for gas, supplying it to the world. your energy self-sufficient. why is the price of gas going up on the forecourt? ben: there is not really anything being energy self-sufficient, but never really happens in a global market like oil and gas. it is a land war in europe or a real estate downturn in china can affect your energy prices here. what is causing the gasoline prices to go up is basically we have a tight refining system in the u.s., we have had a number of fuel refinery, the places that make your gasoline and diesel. one exploded, one had a major fire, so it closed down. there is a bottleneck. we have all of the oil that we need, but we can't refine it

into road fuel. you add that to traders getting worried about this hurricane, going through florida, that is shutting down oil rigs in the gulf of mexico. it is a little bit of column a, a little bit of column b, resulting in gasoline prices going up. christian: it is not insulated from shocks wherever they may be in the world. presumably, decisions made at opec plus, by countries like saudi arabia, russia, iran, that affects the price, does it? ben: exactly. saudi arabia has their own economic agenda. they have two do some development in their own country and they need money for that. they are trying to prop up the price of oil. they have said they are cutting production, and they have done so for a number of months. they said they would continue that policy, and therefore the oil market gets tighter. christian: they start cutting production for the election to put more pressure on him? ben: there is that idea out

there. other folks i talked to who do talk to the saudi's say that is not really what is happening. the world is not always that u.s. centric where saudi arabia makes all of its economic decisions based on who they want in the white house. americans will keep buying oil. or keep the market going. but there is an idea that saudi arabia for years has been wanting to dirsify its own economy. it does not want to ba.1 trick pony, like the world's oil rig. they need to make sure they get a certain revenue coming in month after month. that is why they want to keep oil prices steady. christian: really interesting. in spite of everything we are hearing on the political debate. thank. good to talk to you. around the world and across the u.k., this is bbc news. let's take a look at those u.k. stories making news today. the collapsed retail chain, wilco, has been spent in while rescue bids for the store are

considered. unns representing staff have met the administrators but worn wilco is not out of the woods yet. the chain collapsed into an administration which has put 12.5 thousand jobs at risk across its 400 u.k. stores. the government has announced plans to change water poution rules to allow more houses to be ruled -- built. unless it is proven that work will not have phosphates and nitrates to local rig -- local rivers. the changes will not solve the root causes of england's housing problems. england has announced there will be a signicant increase in the number of blood pressure checks carried out in the community. the service as it plans to extend tests and pharmacies and offering them in places such as barbershops and mosques. it is hoped that it will reduce death from heart attacks and from strokes. you are live with bbc news.

the flight disruption that hit the u.k. over the bank holiday monday has continued into a second. hundreds of flights in and out of the u.k. were canceled. the problem with an air traffic control was fixed within several hours. they said tonight that the fault was down to flight data received, which compromised both primary and backup systems. by the time the automatic processing had been restored, hundreds of aircraft and their crews were in the wrong place. the transport secretary says it will take several days to get people back to where they should be. the air traffic control providers as an independent investigation will continue, overseen by the u.k.'s civil aviation authority. spring in the associate -- let's bring in the associate professor in law and finance at the university of reading. thank you for being with us. what do you make of the explanation we have had from the chief executive tonight that both the main server and the backup server were compromised by some bad data?

>> if you look at what happened in the united states with the faa, they did have a situation in january where there was a file system error. it does sound analogous to that. that error was something which a contractor had made. it could be something like that, although obviously without any greater specificity, it is hard to say. and it is something that deserves to be investigated. perhaps not only through this process, but given the ownership structure, perhaps independently as well. christian: there has been this reference to uploading the wrong info, which does seem such a simple thing to trip the entire system. does that tell us that it is perhaps not fit for purpose? >> it certainly suggests there is the possibility of some gaps. and that is one of the things

that could have arisen as a result of the pandemic. the numbers are projected to be around 2.7 million this year in terms of the number of passengers. it was 1.3 million in a recent year. there was a 60% drop in revenue. during the pandemic. and that is basically because of the passenger numbers, because it is a user pays system. it is not a public good model. one of the questions you have to ask is, is it possible something that should have been upgraded was not upgraded? is it something that, based on the risk-based parameters that they had, they may have not kept up with things that needed to be done? can also ask questions as to whether or not there has been any disruption in terms of staff. has there been an undue issue in

terms of recruitment, retention? christian: i have read reports that there is a problem with recruitment and retention, in many of those working within the system are nearing retirement. >> yes. that is something i think you very wl put the finger on, which could be a contributing cause. if you don't have the skilled personnel at one of the critical locations, that could be something which contributes to it. we have to look at wheer it is something which is internal, which is contractor based, which perhaps goes back to the software. there is a lot of places where vulnerabilities can take place in the system. and i think we have to be cautious about saying where that is at this particular point in time. christian: very quickly, only about 30 seconds, but critical systems are very difficult to update when they are constantly working. >> yes. that is another clear concern. it is something where if there

redundancy in the system, it is something that you can do. but it also depends upon the way that the coding is taking place, and it is something that should give everyone pause as well. christian: good to talk to you this evening. thank you very much. we will take a short break. then we will focus on remembrance day in ukraine and the number of people lost on the front line. . do stay with us. ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. anby judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by...