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it's exciting to be part of a team driving the technology forward. i think that's the most rewarding thing. people who know, know bdo. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". ♪ christian: hello. i am christian fraser, and this is "the context." >> ukrainian prisoners of war world transferred to the belgorod region. >> on board the plane there were six crewmembers, 65 ukrainian servicemen for prisoner swap, and three russian military personnel escorting them. the crew and all passengers were killed. >> unverified today, we are

looking at what is behind it downing of that plane near russia's border with ukraine and who is responsible. christian: a plane crash in russia. was it shut down, and who or what was on board? was it prisoners to be swapped, or missiles for the front? the un's security council will hold an emergency session tomorrow at the request of the russians. we will get reaction from washington and from kyiv. it might not be conscription, but ahead of them army says there needs to be a citizens army to face the fact from russia. and in russia, an israeli tank -- and in gaza, a push for a much-needed humanitarian pause.

very good evening. russia says ukraine is to liberally shutdown a military transport aircraft that -- deliberately shutdown and military transport aircraft caring prisoners of war. it exploded in a fireball close to belgorod. photographs taken shortly after showed the wreckage lying in a snowy field. the russian defense ministry says 65 prisoners of war, six crewmembers, and three other passengers died in the crash. it said the pows were being flown to belgorod from next engineer moscow. they claim a second plane carrying around 80 pows was turned around and returned to moscow. our team has been looking at the video f here is niggardly. >> we spent the day figure out as much as we could about what happened let's look at the

video which shows the incident. you can see the plane circled, it disappears out of you for a few seconds, and then you can see the impact. we haven't verified of this. -- we have verified this. everything in the bbc existed with what we know about the area and the weather in the belgorod region. 20 seconds into the video we see this, this smoke plume. could this be a sign that the plane was hit by a missile? experts we have spoken to think yes, it could be. the open source defense intelligence company says this smoke cloud may have had the use of surface-to-air missiles. it also told us it could be a warhead detonating near the plane. another expert from the center for strategic and international studies has said this is consistent with an aircraft being shot down. this smoke plume, he says, is consistent with an explosion.

so there is that. the governor of belgorod has said that everyone on the plane died, and the defense ministry in russia says there were 65 ukrainian prisoners of war on board as well as 6 crew and three others. christian: neither president zelenskyy nor the ukrainian government have made official statement on the crash. a spokesman for ukrainian military intelligence confirmed reports that a prisoner exchange with russia had been due to take place wednesday. they wouldn't comment on whether the pows were on board the plane. in a new york, the russian foreign minister sergey lavrov gave a press conference in which he demanded an emergency session at the un security council tomorrow. foreign min. lavrov: ukrainian prisoners of war were transported to the belgorod region for the next exchange agreed upon between moscow and kyiv. instead of this exchange taking place, the ukrainian side from

the ko kieft region launched an antiaircraft missile attack on the plane, which became fatal. christian: let's go to washington and speak to our north american correspondent, who has spent so much time in moscow previously. good experience of trying to pick your way through the stories when there are so many open questions. what did you take away from the press conference sergey lavrov gave us a little earlier? >> sergey lavrov, as you say, essentially blamed ukraine for what happened, said the ukraine ian antiaircraft systems shutdown the plane -- shot down the plane, and he called it a criminal act and terrorism. as you say, russia has requested an emergency session of the u.n. security council. we understand that will happen tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. moscow expects kyiv to present some more information on about what happened.

today at the press conference, mr. lavrov accused ukraine of spreading disinformation about the incident, essentiallyying about it. i think for a lot of u.s. officials and for me watching the press conference, they really couldn't believe their ears when they heard that, because spreading disinformation is something that the west has been accusing russia of a many years. moscow has been spreading mistruths about a whole host of things, be it russian soldiers coming war crimes. moscow says that was staged. whether it be forcibly removing ukrainian children to russia -- russia says it is saving them. or if you go back to 2018, the salisbury poisonings, pressure says -- russia says its agents in salisbury were tourists and that britain stage the whole thing. the list goes on and on.

i think that we don't really know what happened. we don't know what brought down the plane. what was on it or who was on it. think it is clear that whatever really happened, moscow is decided to seize the opportunity to score some political points. christian: as you say, we do know in the ukrainians say that moscow is trying to create rifts within ukrainian society. a lot of families are desperate for their loved ones to,. -- for their loved ones to come home. it may well up in full of prisoners, this plane, but the question is who shot it down. that is what we don't know, whether it was the ukrainians or the russians who shot it down. will: yes, we don't know. perhaps more will become clear in the coming days. today there was a briefing of the u.s. state department and the representative was asked if the u.s. has more information about this, and the americans also said they are still trying to establish the truth about

what really happened and urged russia and ukraine to conduct investigations to establish the truth and establish facts. but i think u.s. officials and western officials will be listening to moscow's words with a certain amount of incredulously. moscow, as we note, denies, denies, denies. anything it is accused of, it denies any involvement with. if we cast our minds back to february 2022, when there was that buildup of russian forces on the border with ukraine, lots of western officials, ukrainian officials accusing russia of planning to invade ukraine, and was moscow's response back then? another denial. christian: ok, will vernon, that gives us a view from washington. let's go to kyiv and speak with the correspondent sarah rainsford.

the general staff over there said it would continue to strike at the terrorist that from russia. is that indirect confirmation that they did destroy this plane? >> there was no direct even reference to the plane coming down in that statement from the general staff. it didn't even mention the ilyushin-76, but it did make their does make clear why it might be firing missiles of transport planes in the area. it specify that there is an increased threat from the belgorod region to particularly kharkiv in northeast ukraine, where we have seen in the last few days and last few weeks a real increase in missile attacks, hitting residential buildings and killing and wounding dozens of civilians in kharkiv. what the general staff's point was, without confirming it had fired a missile that took down the il-76 plane, what it said

was there is a threat commit military planes bring missiles that are launched across the border, and as you state, it said we would carry on firing back. christian: a russian mp, retired general, said today that ukraine had to down to the plaintiff sabotage future prisoner exchanges. -- had downed the plane to sabotage future prisoner changes. why would they say that? sarah: christian, if you go down that rabbit hole, you are never getting out. you cannot think rationally about those types of comments, because they make absolutely no sense. there is no way ukraine want to jeopardize the return of its prisoners. quite the oosite. there are thousands and thousands of ukrainian soldiers, people were fighting for ts countr who are now in russian jails. there is huge demand inside ukraine for those meant to be return home and brought home safely. i was talking to the mother of a 23-year-old ukrainian fighter who she hasn't heard from from a

very long time. just talked to her yesterday. she's actually distressed that she is extending distressed at the vague possibility that her son -- she is extremely distressed at the vague possibility that her son might've been on the plane. there are concerned families in ukraine waiting for information. but it is important stress that whilst ukraine's defense military intelligence service has said that it has some information, it has made clear it doesn't know, it doesn't have any verified information that there were prisoners of war on the plane, which is what russia is claiming. christian: sarah, looks a very cool the night, we will let you go -- very cold night, we will let you go. he spent 20 years as helicopter pilot and he knows a thing or two. lovely to have you on the program again. what do you see when you look at the video? >> i've been analyzing this all

day, christian come through the risk equation, capability vs. intent. if we taka capability to begin with him does ukraine have the capability to potentially shoot down this ilyushin-76 transport aircraft? the answer is absolutely yes. they have been given the patriot missile system, high on range and i cruise missile aircraft system, which has more than the capability to take out a very large transport aircraft which has a huge radar cross-section. that is a radar-guided missile system. and ukraine has what is called the iris t missile system, medium-range, slightly shorter range missile system that is infrared. a radar-guided missile system will go for the ilyushin-76, which is absolutely massive. the irish t, an infrared homing system, that will go after the engines. the ilyushin-76 has four engines

f if you use a shoulder lunch this'll, quite prolific -- shoulder logic missile, quite prolific in war zones, o missile would not take out the aircraft. ukraine absolutely does have the capability to take out or conduct this potential shootdown. when it comes to the intent side of the risk equation, that is the sort you have been talking about. why would ukraine shoot down an aircraft with 76 ukrainian soldiers on board? there are reports out there that the ukrainians did initially claim the ilyushin-76 was carrying s300 missiles, effectively the russian equivalent of the patriot missile system. if that indeed is true, that would give ukraine the intent to shoot it down. but using what we have at the moment, the intent side doesn't make sense. the capability side, it absolte has capability. christian: as sarah was saying, there has been an uptick in attacks in and around the kharkiv region.

and these are surface-to-air missiles, but they can be used for ground attacks, right? >> s300's have been used in in syria. the preeminent use is very similar to the patriot missile. it is there and it can take out tomahawk missiles, crue missiles. it can take out fast-moving aircraft carried in air-to-ground bombs. s-300 is very potent -- christian: say they were coming in behind enemy lines watching into an airfield like belgorod, they would have an incentive to take it out. >> if they have the intelligence will if we project forward, christian, it is all about the investigation. if pressure is absolutely adamant that their work -- if russia is absolute adamant that there were 76 ukrainian soldiers on board and not missiles, pressure should be able to provide all the evidence to show that the ukrainians were on

board. with the pack to manifest comes all of the names. they should provide and allow access -- back to the malaysian jet shot down by about three missile system. that whole fuselage was put together by the dutch in the aircraft investigation, and you could see on the aircraft that the missile that struck it was a proximity -- you could see over the cockpit where the warhead had been displaced. if the russians are adamant -- all of the evidence to set the truth straight. christian: but we all know that probably that access is not going to be granted. while i have got you, and since we are talking about t russian threat, interesting comments from the chief of the general staff. he is saying t government needs to equip a citizen's army, reservist forced of tens of thousands for a war with russia,

and has publicized the army's lack of funding and inability to modernize. he is talking about 120,000. where are we at the moment and why is he saying that is necessary? >> i'm not sure, given the way that the british military has been depleted the last 20 years, predominantly the army is the one that has suffered the most from the depletion, i think this is more of a pie-in-the-sky idea. it takes years to train soldiers up to -- christian: he said they would be gular soldiers, reserves, and strategic reserves. i guess that would be retired troops recalled? >> yeah, but christian, they will not be the roles that will be massively productive in a fight against the russians. it is the special forces roles, special forces support group, sbs, sas.

they are the departments of the u.k. military that are some of the best in the world that can do the most damage in concert with ukrainian soldiers that have been brought in and drafted into the front lines. i'm not sure that a reservist capability is going tget what the russians could throw at prudential ukraine. you have got to remember as well that in order for the russians to start becoming a major threat, they have got to clear territory inside ukraine and then they have got a hold the territory inside ukraine. it's the holding bit when you have the defense ratio of 3- --1 i.e. an attacking force three times greater than the defending force -- i don't think the formula would work and would be counted prolifically by a reservist mobilization. christian: that is why we get you on, mikey. good to talk to you. around the world and across the u.k., you are watching bbc news.

let's take a quick look at some stories making headlines here today. the body that looks into potential wrongful convictions has warned it may have missed important evidence in a rape case with andrew martinson. he spent 17 years in prison for a crime he didn't commit. his conviction wasn't overturned until a decade later. his lawyers say the criminal case's review commission report means you could have been exonerated earlier. please have shot dead a dog after reports it attacked a man in hamilton in scotland. when were called on tuesday to do with the dangerously out of control animal. the men suffered serious injuries in the incident, which involved a large bulldog-type dog. almost 10 million people in england can no longer access free earwax removal on the nhs. a hearing-loss charity reported that some people are resorting to dangerous self removal methods. the government says patients can still be referred by their gp if

they suffer hearing loss. you are live with bbc news. donald trump has followed his win in iowa with an equally convincing win in new hampshire, not quite as big as polls predicted. he finished 11 points clear of nikki haley, but he took an overwhelming slice of the republican base. 2-2, and the consensus within the party is that the primary is over and it is time for the general election to begin. there is just one problem, haley used her concession speech last night to insist the race is far from over, and in response, trump lashed out at his opponent, who he characterized as an imposter standing in his way. mr. trump: who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory? she did very poorly, actually. she had to win. and when i watched her in the fancy dress that probably wasn't so fancy -- you must really hate her.

[laughter] uh-oh. sen. scott: i just love you. christian: well, there are warning signs and the result for the presumptive nominee. nikki haley has exposed trump's key weakness, independent voters, who don't seem to like him. haley is honing in on the reasons why. ms. haley: donald trump, you have one bout of chaos after a another. this court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. you cannot fix joe biden's chaos with donald trump scales. christian: let's bring in katty kay. lovely to see you. odd response last night. convincing victory, and yet he seemed deeply frustrated with haley's response. katty: yeah, it was not the most gracious of victory speeches

i've ever heard in american politics, laying into the person you are running against, her dress. i don't know how well that will go down with suburban women voters. nobody likes to hear their dress dismissed as cheap and not fancy. i don't think it is going to do him any favors, but clearly he is not happy that she is staying in the race. he has put out in the last few minutes one of his truth social posts calling her a birdbrain. that may not go down terribly well with women voters. it's interesting, she seems to have gotten under his skin, and if she does stay in the race, how much of this kind of thing is he going to say, how much more angry is he going to be? or will the team around him, which has been a pretty good job of reining in some of donald trump' more angry instinctss, will they be able to rein him back in again? if he carries on in this vein, even though he has just won new hampshire, at some point in a general election he will have to win some of the people who voted for nikki haley. he cannot win the election just with the maga base.

you will have to win some in-depth -- he will have to win some independents. christian: a republican emailed me today and he likened it to "rocky." nikki haley was playing the role of sylvester stallone trying to wind up cassius clay until the point he just snaps and goes after him, and she thinks that is the last tactic in her drawer. i could be damaging in a general election. -- that could be damaging in a general election. katty: i think doug is right, and we saw some of that last night. he started to snap,, and again, calling her birdbrain today, that is kind of a snap. the other thing nikki haley's team by thinking he has all of these court cases against him, 91 challenges against him. if he is convicted on any of those, and there are enough

republicans who have said both in iowa and in new hampshire, we won't support donald trump, we won't vote for donald trump if he is convicted on any of those 91 charges, and perhaps by staying in the race she can paint herself at the last person standing. that is the other reason they are going to stay in the race. it gets complicated when you get to the conventions, but it might be that she things everyone else has dropped out, i'm still here, i've got money in the bank -- he raised something like $25,000 in the last quarter of last year -- why not sit it out? what is the downside? christian: she talked last night about why people -- the majority of people in america want something different. let's have a listen to this, the point she is making about the two people who are also in the race. ms. haley: the first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate will be the party that wins this election. [cheers and applause] christian: i guess to outsiders,

when you look at that, you look at someone freshfaced as nikki haley, maybe even dean phillips on the other side, you think here is two smart people who could easily be the candidate. is it depressing to the electorate that it is the octogenarians who are taking all the limelight? katty: yeah, look, i think the mood here is pretty depressed. people aren't interested. clearly donald trump has people who will stand in line for hours and love him, and using quasireligious language about him. they are excited. but i talked to friends of mine in the american press, and they are saying no one is reading the election coverage. they have all of these reporters covering iowa and new hampshire, and it is not getting much pickup because people don't want to think about politics at the moment. one thing we do know is that the next whatever -- feels like it is going to be 100 years, but the next 10 months until the general election are going to be

grueling. it is going to be a brutal fight, whether it is between nikki haley and donald trump or beyond that between donald trump and joe biden. the gloves are going to come off on both sides. i don't think that fills anybody with that much excitement. all of the polls are showing us that americans are not excited about the prospect of two 80-year-olds, were almost 80-year-olds, running. christian: i was going to say are common in the back of a taxi -- most people don't talk politics in the back of a taxi, but with a woman could win the white house. are we seeing why that is so difficult in nikki haley's race to become president? katty: i think there is some of that. i think there is some misogynist language that has been used, certainly about hillary clinton. there was a lot more discussion about her clothing, for example, the fact that nikki haley's dress was brought up last night. that is the kind of thing you don't tend to hear about male

candidates. now, when it comes to the house and the senate, we know that when women run, they win in bigger numbers than men do. they tend not to run as often. there are some barriers to entry for women, but americans by and large would be ready to elect a female candidate. they just need one to win the party nomination again. christian: lovely to see you. we have got narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... woman: architect. bee keeper. mentor. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. george: actually, you don't need vision to do most things in life.