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with them stopping. we should have a cease-fire now. >> we don't know when it's going to happen or what scale it will take and how long it will last. >> there's nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country. ♪ christian: the leadership decapitated, is this when israel pushes? the tanks have been prepositioned and the ground invasion looks to be imminent. we have all the analysis. our correspondents are on stand by across the region. a very good evening, welce to the program. israeli special forces have been

carrying out small targets and raids into southern lebanon gathering intelligence and probing ahead of an expected ground incursion. israeli tanks are gathering the country's northern border. the biden administration says it expects an immanentist really vasion. much of the fighting is taking place at the lebanese border and there is concern it could spread a meeting got underway and the army is waiting for a signal from the government. let's speak to john donaldson who is in israel and what is being discussed and what instructions might be given to the army. jon: to launch some sort of ground incursion going to happen

and could happen, really, any moment now, certainly within the next few hours, heard from the defense minister earlier today and was up on the northern border meeting troops up there. israel has been reinforcing the number of troops on the border and he said that the next phase of the operation against hezbollah could happen as soon as tod and that means in the next few hours. i think the big question is, as you suggested in your introduction is what scale will it be on and what form will it take? it might actually be quite incremental and yomight get an incursion into one part of southern lebanon, spend some time there before moving on to a different part. i'm not sure we'll get tens of thousands of tanks going across the border in one frontier all at once but some sort of operation is imminent.

christian: does the prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, feel after the events of last week or so this is playing well for him politically? jon: i think he absolutely does. one of the key factors is unlike the war in gaza where there are huge divisions within israeli society and within the israeli government or military about prime minister netanyahu's strategy there, many people of course think he should be pursuing more forcefully a cease-fire and hostage release. i think he very much feels he has got hezbollah under caution at the moment and he is pressing forward. hamas says the leader of their operations in lebanon were killed by an air strike in the south and lucy williamson has

been to the northern border and sent us this report. lucy: israel's army is moving closer to a ground invasion. the lebanese border a couple miles away, the next red line in this war. tens of thousands of forces moved up from gaza, we're told by the chief of staff they would soon step on enemy soil and tonight reports from u.s. media that a limited ground invasion could start as soon as today. at the border, israel's defense minister kept up the suspense. israel would use all means required to return evacuated communities to their homes, he said. forces from the air, the sea, and on land. israel has been talking up its readiness to launch a ground offensive against hezbollah but sending these tanks across the border would mean a very different kind of battle to the

air strikes and intelligence it's relied on so far, fighting hezbollah on territory it controls, territory where they've been planning a confrontation like this for years. the border town, they watched israel step up its offensive this month against hezbollah leaders, its communication, its weapons. many say they shouldn't stop there. >> see all this? all this is from now. lucy: these are all the alert sirens to warn you there might be something coming overhe border towards you? >> when there are rockets, i don't have time to go to a safe place. lucy: what needs to happen for you to feel safe? >> to kill all the terrorists and finish, finish this situation. >> i hear every day rockets, rockets, rockets, and americans said don't, don't, don't.

come on. come on. boom, boom. it's not life. lucy: israel's prime minister, often proud of defying his allies, is looking beyond hezbollah to its backer, iran, warning against any retaliation from tehran. benjamin: there is nowhere we cannot reach. there is nowhere we won't go to protect our country. with every passing moment, the regime is bringing you, the noble persian people, closer to the abyss. lucy: miscalculation was seen as the biggest risk in triggering a full scale war on this border but israel's assessment has changed and many fear the faith in an idea of a limited war. lucy williamson, bbc news at the

israel-lebanon border. christian: our chief correspondent is joining us and mr. hobson from the cato institute. welcome to you both. lisa, if i could start with you, the israelis have been saying for several weeks the new warning is to change the situation on the ground such they can get 60,000 people back to their homes in northern israel. do that they have to do two things, one, cut out the rockets and second, rule out any october 7 style attack. how does this limited operation that they're talking about achieve that? lisa: i think this is part of a much bigger offensive by israel in which it is carrying out attacks on lebanon that have gone beyond anything and with greater results than anything could have imagined, most of all, hezbollah. we've seen israel take out pretty much all the top leadership, including at the top, hassan nasarallah.

but week after week they've taken out key members such as the leadership structure, the phrase you use, decapitated, and also took out a lot of mid level operatives in those mass casualty attacks, the pager attack. and in the back and forth of artillery and rocket fire going on over the israel-lebanon border since the gaza war began has been degrading hezbollah's infrastructure. but we've talked about it before, you and i on this ogram, you only can achieve so much in the air. we heard from jon donaldson, israel now believes it has the wind in its sails, that with the success, with the population of israel behind it, and with the kind of unity of political and military leadership, which is very much, very publicly not present on the gaza war, they feel it is the time to strike. and that is why we are hearing about these limited operations, limited could mean a lot of things.

some people may remember in the early months of the gaza war, before they went in with the massive ground operation, and they're still occupying land inside gaza, they did these hit-and-run raids, very targeted for specific objectives to destroy this or destroy that. they have been doing some raids, air raids across the border, and this is what we think may happen first, they don't have enough troops at the border and another armor to carry out something bigger and something bigger may not be the objective though we've heard the head of the northern command say he wants to establish a buffer zone and that would be a return to history. christian: help us with that, if we're talking about a buffer zone, presumably we're talking about taking out this threat known as the rad-1 forces, the special unit of hezbollah that operate close to the border. what is that and how far would they have to go across into lebanon to deal with it.

john: i think this is the question, is whether this war -- whether and is really push into lebanon would be more limited in nature or whether we're looking at a full scale ground campaign. netanyahu said he's willing to push forward in lebanon with full force. aside from just the risk of pushing into lebanon, how far do you need to go, to what extent do the israelis feel they need to degrade hezbollah's capabilities but the real broader risk here i would want to highlight is the risk of regional escalation, all these different flash points that have flared up since october 7 and israel's subsequent war into gaza. this has the potential of really devouring the region quite quickly and the chances of miscalculation is incredibly high. christian: is there a dilemma for the israelis here that things are easier than they thought, that perhaps they bit

off more than they can chew? john: yes, i think as they linger and decide whethe they're going to push into lebanon here, you're risking a now multifront war, one that will be likely a costly war of attrition, one of your colleagues mentioned hezbollah has prepared for this and will be fighting on hezbollah's territory but with these other regional actors involved from iraqnd syria and yemen, these actors that have been escalating alongside israel and hezbollah since october 7, you know, the chances of miscalculation here are tremendous. christian: we shouldn't forget, he said there are unifil soldiers inside lebanon and have been there since 2006 but presumably their brief is limited at the moment. lisa: their brief is limited and they themselves have come under attack and taken casualties in these months of escalating

tension along the border. but they are there to monitor what's described as a blue line that was set i2006 after the last major war between israel and hezbollah and part of that 2006 agreement, hezbollah was supposed to withdraw back to north of the latani river and this is what israel very much wants to achieve now. and beyond that line now is the force that israel will now, if it wants to clear the area, the state department uses the word "infrastructure" but it's not just going to be physical infrastructure, there is this rad-1 force, a rapid intervention force which has been training for decades, a special forces, and not just trained by hezbollah and lebanon but been in action in syria where it's been on the battlefield, honing its tactics and what israel has in mind

though we haven't seen evidence this is the case. but when israel talks about a repeated october 7, the rad-1's whole purpose was to cross the border into israel one day and make sure that never happens this would certainly -- though israel hasn't expressed this but if they want to push hezbollah back they'll have to push back the radwon forces. and we don't know their state after these attacks against israel. christian: it's more than a capitation because they've taken out the third and fourth rung of the hezbollah leadership here and we don't know who is in charge but we got a statement from the group's deputy leader by shake nia kassam, the first address from a key figure since hasan nasarallah's killing and

does it suggest there's some panic within the leadership of the group at the moment. and like you said, they succeeded in killing a lot of commanders and expect criticism regarding the effectiveness of decappizing the heads of terror organizations and we've seen this before where the groups continue to operate where the infrastructure largely remains in intact and hezbollah is wounded and confused but think once it heads into hezbollah's territory, we're talking about a different game. christian: the factor is in iran

and the strategichrough the proxies but biden's administration is there will be a similar conflict like the one in april they had to get involved in. where do you think the thinking is in tehran at the moment and the risk it poses to the regime there? lisa: president biden and senior american officials have been warning iran indirectly if iran does retaliate as it did in april, i was in israel then and more than 300 rockets came across the border, cruise missiles and drones, president biden has warned the retaliation would be even harsher. there are no good options for iran now. it knows if it responds, if it retaliates as it's been threatening to do not just what has happened in the past weeks but the political leader the end of july was assassinated on iranian soil, and we understand that they held back because the

united states again sent direct messages saying don't retaliate, a cease-fire is in sight in gaza and there are reports iran feels very much imbittered they were led down this route and tricked and israel not only did not agree to a cease-fire and hamas might not have either but did launch this new front into lebanon. iran is stuck between two objectives and it feels honor bound to show it is defending their allies and there is frustration expressed by the hezbollah leaders because chic naim qassem was hand in glove with iran and iran hadn't come to his assistance. but iran's main preservation is the republic and the preservation of its military program, the preservation of a nuclear program many are speculating, whether iran is reconsidering whether or not it wants to push further and accelerate that to develop a

nuclear weapon given the risks now. so it feels torn in two directions. initially i think it was just reeling. the fact the first thing it did was take its freedom leader, ayatollah to a safe location must have had a sharp intake of breath if israel can get us anywherewho will be next? then they have to decide what to do. there is a sense in iran and has been said throughout this conflict that they believe benjamin netanyahu was trying to bait them and trying to trap them and draw them in so israel can attack and will also draw the united states in. christian: very quickly on that, hn. it's been and is really strategy for some time to get the americans and iranians face to face, really. do you think that still is the strategy, there are tentacles across the region but benjamin netanyahu thinks the real

strategy is to go for the head. john: no, precisely, i agree emphatically with your colleague. this has been the strategy of benjamin netanyahu the past decades and the past five administrations from the u.s. have been asked to take the fight against iran and what is lingering in the back of netanyahu's mind right now is trying to push for escalation in a manner that draws the united states directly into the fray and we've seen senior u.s. officials warn against this. the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, c.q. brown said a war between hezbollah and israel is likely to drag both iran and the united states directly into the fray. the u.s. secretary of defense, lloyd austin said this conflict could quickly match or exceed the casualties that we've seen in gaza. so from my standpoint the alarm

bell should be going off and is a scenario that should be averted at every cost. christian: we'll get a reaction from washington shortly. we'll take a break and be back after this. ♪

christian: welcome back. a line of breaking news to bring you. we'll concentrate on it in the second hour of our program and that's the fallout from the hurricane helene. that hit the united states. we're just hearing from e u.s. homeland security chief that the death toll that was previously around the 100 mark has risen to 600. there was one county in north carolina which said they had a missing persons list of around 600. so there's a very fair chance that death toll will rise beyond that. you're seeing some horrific scenes across five states, florida, georgia, the carolinas,

and also into virginia. we'll concentrate on that a little bit in the second hour of our program. we're continuing to focus on a ground offensive which may be imminent in lebanon though the strikes have been carrying on throughout the day in the western part of beirut, around the junction and people were stopping to look in disbelief at an apartment building struck by israeli rockets overnight. the first known strike within the sunni muslim part of the city in two decades, even in 2006, that area was largely spared from any attacks and the popular front of the liberation of palestine, a militant group based in lebanon and gaza said three of its members have been killed in that strike. it does really add to that sense of forboding in beirut, plenty of people leaving the city and south of the country. a number of people who have crossed into syria now over 100,000. the white house still showing

restraint from israel but there was a hint at the tension in their relationship after a number of escalations in recent eks but the biden administration seemed not to be privy to. reporter: they're launching a operation into lebanon, are you aware of that and comfortable with their plans? president biden: i'm well aware of it more than you know and we should have a cease-fire now. christian: let's get a statement from the state department. a sense of frustration i thought in the president's voice there, tom. tom: yeah, absolutely. continuing to stick to the line that we had from the administration last week which was that they want the israelis to stop and they want a cease-fire. now, i have to say the briefing we had here at the state department within the last hour with the spokesperson matthew miller was not quite as emphatic at all but a far more emphasis he was putting on israel's right

to kill hasan nasarallah and defend itself and some of the lines we've heard previously from the american administration but what it gives you, christian, is a sense in which how the american position here is being fundamentally driven by the situation on the ground, which is itself being driven at the moment by the israeli actions. and we're seeing, you know, as each day goes past, the american position is having to recalibrate and switch according to what the israelis are doing. remember, it was last week the u.s. led a diplomatic charge at the united nations calling for restraint from israel and hezbollah of a cease-fire and within that same time frame, the israelis continuing what has been a sharp escalation by lebanon via air strikes after the attacks and the killing of hasan nasarallah the end of last week.

we're getting a different message from the americans now and pushed the spokesman on this during the briefing saying, well, look, you've been calling for strength, has that manifestly failed? he wouldn't address it directly but said they have the right to kill hasan nasarallah and the americans supported that. but when i put to him, according to lebanese officials, many of the thousands killed, many civilians among those, and more than a million displaced in the country now according to the united nations, this has the potential to be aame changer in terms of unleashing many more problems and violence and conflict. he put it like this, you know, while he said again, the israelis may be trying to enable diplomacy and strengthen their diplomatic hand through the military action but on the other hand, it also has the capacity to release unintended consequences, as he put it, and miscalculation. so they are clearly still very worried about where all this is

headed. christian: very quickly, tom, presumably in mind of the administration is the open door they're trying to keep with the arab nations that they would need to speak to the day after this war finishes. tom: of course, and that part of the diplomacy remains very important to the americans. whenever antony blinken makes trips to the middle east and he's made 10 since october 7, it's almost exclusively involving both israel and arab untries. but, you know, i think as you suggest, this puts a lot of pressure on those relationships. christian: tom bateman at the state department. thanks for announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james.

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