tv BBC News The Context PBS October 2, 2024 5:00pm-5:30pm PDT
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giving these former race dogs a real chance to win. a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your purpose, and the way you give back. life well planned. erika: i love seeing interns succeed, i love seeing them come back and join the engagement teams and seeing where they go from there, i get to watch their personal growth, it makes my heart happy. (laughs) announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news" christian: hello. i'm christian fraser and this is the context. >> all seven of us agreed to
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have a right to respond. >> at that point we saw the israeli air defense, the iron dome, kick into life. they send a lot of defensive missiles up into the sky. >> the raging fires in the middle east are fast becoming an inferno. ♪ christian: now for the conflict in the middle east. eight israeli soldiers killed today in the fighting in lebanon. israel is promising retaliation against iran. joe biden says it is not support a strike on iran's nuclear facilities. we will have all the reaction from the region today. and the first edition of the security brief.
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what is unfolding, and where it goes next. -- more troops to the invasion and said it has been involved in close fighting for the first time with hezbollah. eight israeli soldiers were killed, six in an ambush and two by mortar fire. after last night's attack by iran, israeli defenses were called into action again today. the iron dome taking up rockets fired from lebanon. in new york the security council expressed alarm and frustration at where things are heading. the secretary-general once again called for restraint. >> we must never lose sight of the tremendous toll that this growing conflict is taking on civilians. and we cannot look away from systematic violations of international humanitarian law. this deadly cycle of tit-for-tat
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violence must stop. time is running out, and i thank you. christian: the israeli defense forces said 180 two missiles were fired by iran. the military has acknowledged that airbases were hit that damaged mainly office buildings within the basis, nothing that would unduly affect the air force's operations. overnight they were flying more missions over beirut and today residents in 20 villages in southern lebanon were told to move out by the israeli forces. here's our middle east correspondent lucy williamson. lucy: israel's air force was defending other targets when iran's missiles came. hit several airbases, like this one. another, nearly missing an intelligence base in tel aviv.
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the creator it left, filled with visions of "what if." the attack had twice the scope of iran's last bombardment in april. not all the targets hit were military. one landed in this residential suburb of tel aviv. neighbors rushing through repairs before the jewish new year tonight. temporary solutions for the problems of a regional war. this 83-year-old's he, one of more than 100 houses damaged here. >> everybody was scared, because the blast was enormous. and when we get out of the shelter, we saw something not from this world. all of the house had no windows, no doors.
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lucy: the impact size, around 100 meters from his front door. another "what if." iran has attacked israel directly, actions that were once seen as redlines are now becoming routine. each time the line between message and miscalculation is paperthin. and each time, demands a response. israel's prime minister last night promised a response would come. >> iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it. the regime in iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and retaliate against our enemies. lucy: israel has been crossing redlines of its own, sending these soldiers into lebanon this week. a limited and targeted incursion, it says, to destroy hezbollah tunnels. but another four brigades were called out today, and villages in the south of lebanon told to
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leave their homes and move north. also today, the first israeli casualties. airlifted out of the combat zone. eight killed and others injured in a confrontation with hezbollah fighters, the bbc understands. the risks of old conflicts weighed against the risks of playing by new rules. lucy williamson, bbc news, israel. christian: let's bring you right up to date. just before we came on air w spoke to our correspondent who is on that northern border. >> this has been the second full day of israel's invasion into south lebanon and the first time the israelite troops have come face-to-face with the hezbollah fighters. we got reports very early in the day that hezbollah were claiming they had ambushed some of those israeli troops with reports of some casualties.
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it was not until later in the day that the israeli defense forces confirmed eight of their soldiers had in fact been killed. they were all in their early 20's. we also heard that seven soldiers were injured and some of them were taken to a hospital nearby by helicopter. you can hear a helicopter at the moment. this has been happening all day, both israeli jets and helicopters high in the sky above us. prime minister benjamin netanyahu paid tribute to the fallen soldiers, saying they had died in the middle of a tough or against iran and its proxies. israel also said they would be sending many more soldiers to this part of northern israel, the border with lebanon is just across there. what we have seen today, the israeli casualties, goes to show this is a very difficult fight for the israelis. mr. netanyahu says it is an essential one, but nonetheless extremely difficult in the days and weeks to come. christian: let me share lot
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images we are seeing of that israeli/lebanon border. for the moment it is pretty calm, but we are continuing to watch that. mikey k is sitting by in the studio. we are going to get his thoughts on what has been an extraordinary 24 hours. we will get to that after this break. we will be right back after this. ok. i'm told that we're not actually going to go to a break. so let's start with our new feature which we call the security brief. here it is. ♪ all sorts of grumblings -- grem lins, but we will sort that out. each week will bring you an in-depth military briefing which we hope wi provide you some
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context on the national security decisions being made. the man who will help us do that is a former senior officer in the british military. he flew assault helicopters for 20 years, he is going to run these briefings as he would do for the military. so we are going to start with the iranians. a course of action, what you would know in the business as coaa, what the iranians went for last night. the capability they have. what did you see? >> there is an incredible amount to digest, assess and analyze. the most important thing to look out first is the map distance says. the distances are not insignificant. if we look at this graphic we can see they distances we have between tehran and some of the major cities inside israel, tel aviv and jerusalem. you are looking at 970 miles
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from tehran to jerusalem. what is important is that allows us to assess what type of capability iran has in terms of a ballistic missile threat. the three main ballistic missiles that pop-out is the hatch chrissy, named after the former commander. it has a range of about 870 miles, the other, 900 miles. they are on the far outer reaches of their capabilities. so it may not be launched from tehran more west, just to extend that range. and then you have the 3, which has a significantly greater range of about 1200 miles. the question you are interested in is, there is a lot of talk about the 2. christian: i have seen on twitter that people thought this
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was the missile that iran was using. it's a hypersonic missile. i think we have some video. the pakistani military have similar capability, so we have taken video from them. are you saying it would be a similar thing? and why do you have a problem with some of this reporting, given the distances you just talked about? mikey: there is a lot of chatter on social media and news reporting about dismissal. it is a hypersonic missile that gives it a capability of mach 5 plus. but the problem i have with this is the report that the far reaches of it is about 250 miles. we go back to the map, there is something slightly awry. we can see from this footage, it's mobile. they can either be wheeled or tracked. for me, the only way that the
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fatta 2 could hit israel is if it was deployed mobley into somewhere like syria. if you put that system within the region of damascus, that would give it range to target the main points in israel, only if it is deployed. christian: with that in mind, in a military ops room of the kind you have been in, would they be piecing this together and working out where some of this would come from? they would presumably be satellite imagery of some of these missiles leaving the launchers. would there still be some confusion as to whether they were actually fired from iran or whether some were fired from closer in the region? mikey: there is a vacuum of information as to where this capability has come from but from the analysis we have been discussing today, the only way that could have targeted israel is if it was deployed into syria.
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if it is deployed into syria, you have collaboration between bashar al-assad and the iranian regime. so that will that implicate syria, whichill open syria up to potential targeting from israel. christian: let's talk about israel's missileefense, because it was pretty extraordinary last night. 182 missiles fired. there was some damage around the airbases, but they have taken down most of the missiles as they can in. -- came in. there is the arrow for this high altitude ierception. there is the david sling for the medium-range, and the iron dome for the short range threats coming from hezbollah. explain to us how some of this works. mike sure. let's start with the outermost reaches. you have the arrow 2 and 3. the arrow 2 is an older ballistic system that can go out to about 2400 kilometers.
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the arrow 3 is new, and can engage targets outside of the earth's atmosphere. from a lot of the people i have been talking to, the arrow 3 and 2 syste are the main systems that the israelis rely on in order to counter a lot of those 182 inbound ballistic missiles from iran. if we then come back we have the david slick, as you rightly pointed out, that is stationary. that has a range of about 190 miles. anything that breaks through those will then be targeted by the david sling. what is really interesting is when you come into the iron dome system. it is a 24/7 capability. it is all weaer, and has 360 degree cover. that in itself is hugely important. it is broken down into three parts. you have the target tracking
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radar, you have got the actual interception missile itself, and that is in all the batteries. there is thought to be around 10 batteries surrounding israel to give them full cover. and then you have the c2 system that provides the software that allows the target tracking radar to talk to the missile. the range of that is around 2.5 to 44iles. you can imagine if this system is engaging targets at 2.5 miles over open areas, that will be quite a shock for a lot of people because of the noise. so the iron dome system is quite phenomenal. it has a very high percentage rate of intercept. but we should not forget that as part of this you have u.s. naval warships in the mediterranean who are firing interception missiles as well to try and counter those 182 coming in. christian: i am building to a point here. the cost of each of these arrow missiles is $1.5 million. therefore israel spent $850
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million on that technology in april alone when the iranians first fired. when we talk about this war of attrition, we talk about the distances these missiles are traveling. is this sustainable if there were further and repeated attacks? and does that feed into the strategic military plan you would be making in jerusalem? mikey: this is a really interesting question and we spoke about it at length today. we are just going to bring up now the distances again. not insignificant. the really important piece about this analysis is israel will be looking very closely at what logistical resupply and reloading they have of the arrow 2 and 3, of david sling. they are going to be making very close and calculated decisions on when they are effectively going to run out.
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so if i am a military institution planner in jerusalem, if i know the resupply system is low and the resupply will obviously come from people like the united states, but i would not want to do is provoke iran into another 182 ballistic missile attack, knowing that would bring levels down to a point where the iron dome would become vulnerable. not because of the system itself, but because of the resupply. christian: this is really important. the americans are supplying patriot missile, and i know they were involved in discover as well. they are supplying ukrainians at the moment. there is a lot of pressure on resupply for the americans. are you saying that when benjamin netanyahu talks about there will be repercussions at the time of our choosing, one thing he will be told is hang on, let's just check what we have got and what the retaliation might look like before we go start targeting iran. mikey: going back to the analogy of strategic military planning inside jerusalem, you will be
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having a close conversation on what stockpiles are, what resupply is, and what that means in terms of how patriot is contributing towards the outer reaches. the patriot missile system will collaborate with the arrow 2 and 3. they are very long distance. there might be redundancy in being able to take that up but you are right, it is a very important consideration planners will be taking into account. christian: so we talked about iran and what they are thinking. let's talk about the iranian coalition. what options are on the table for them? mikey: it is a really interesting point and if we can go to the next slide please. the potential targets that i can see are obviously the nuclear facilities, the enrichment of uranium. and then you have other facilities such as oil which would damage iran economically.
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you also have targets such as their defense systems. one of the huge questions about an iranian response, what is that course of action? it is most likely the ml cover, we call it. it will be to put some form of package. what we can see are the potential flightpaths of what a package would look like. in order for israel to get a package of fighters which are suppressing enemy defense, which may be refuel ors, because it is a significant journey there and back. it could be aircraft that suck up a lot of electronic information. it is a lot to consider and plan. if we look at the flight routes
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we have got on the map, you have four potential considerations. the route down the south is the longest and would not require any approval or coordination with a country. the most direct route is saudi arabia. in order for them to use the saudi arabian group, they are going to have to have a lot of coordination with the saudis and coordinate this huge package coming through their airspace and come back again. that is a huge consideration when it comes to what the israelis could do in terms of a fixed wing strike. christian: that southern route that goes around saudi arabia and up into iran, you are talking about presumably a refueling operation, hugely technical. then what? a lot of these nuclear facilities we are told our deep underground, in mountainous situations. if that is an option, and we will talk about the debate going
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on around that, but if it is really an option, what are those israeli pilots flying into? mikey: this then comes down to the breakdown of package. and the cycle they use is called find and fix target tracking engage and assess. there are parked -- it will more likely have onboard a cruise missile. it is the delilah that the israelis have with a range of about 250 kilometers. if you look at what the israeli defense systems are, which have a range of about 120 kilometers, then tt would be a suitable weapon because they could launch a standoff and then the fighters don't get engaged in the missile engagement zone of israeli defenses. all of these things in that cycle will be taken into
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account. and each jet -- the f-35 -- then you have assets like f-16's that would be potentially used with a cruise missile standoff to take on whatever. th can penetrate bunkers and things underground. christian: that is fascinating. some of it certainly goes over my head, but it gives you the idea of not just, let's take off. there is an enormous amount of logistical work going on right now in israel, if indeed it retaliation is coming. of course the other target for israel is hezbollah and a ground invasion is underway. difficult to get an understanding of the topography across that border once you
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leave israel heading into lebanon. it is not just a case of rolling across the border, is it? mikey: it is not. if we can bring up the slide, please. this will give viewers an indication of the type of topography you are looking at. if you are looking at the bottom of the picture, that has received a lot of hey fire, rockets from hezbollah, and a lot of the inhabitants have been displaced. slide please. if we then go to the next slide, idf armor has been gathering in order to cross. christian: that is the u.n. blue line because he, the demarcation. that is the spot just over the
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border where that engagement today we were talking about, around that area is where they were hit. but what you see actually is that hezbollah are on an elevated position as those tanks come in. mikey: let's not forget, that topography shows quite nicely how difficult it is for israeli tanks to navigate that type of terrain. it is upheld and the roads are slow. but this is not just about hezbollah. there is a course of action iran could take that could flood southern lebanon with militia groups, she a militia groups, all around the region. from popular mobilization forces inside iran. you have the syrian army that have been heavily involved in hezbollah over the last 10 years supporting bashar al-assad. and then we have the popular mobilization forces inside iraq. they were pretty significant and it came to all of the u.s. operations inside iraq.
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and then syria, we have the syrian army. we have spoke about that. there are battle hardened, they have worked closely with hezbollah in the past. let's not forget the houthis in yemen. they have been battle hardened as well and terms of what they have been dealing with. christian: the americans found when the armenians flooded the zone in iraq, the army capability -- mikey: brilliant question. the arabians these hind an ied called the efp, the explosive force penetrator. what that effectively is, we can bring up the slide of what it looks like. it is basically a can with explosives and a copperplate in it. it melts the copper into quite a potent projectile. the use of this inside iraq was
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deadly against u.s. armor. so imagine you have these tanks, the high ground, the close if you get these mineral -- these militant groups and they put ied's in the road, that can prove very problematic and israel could get quagged down quickly. christian: truly fascinating and gives an impression that although hezbollah has been subdued, it is certainly not out. i love the slide. we will do it again soon. that is the security brief. we will do it every week. mikey kay, thank you very much. we will be right back after this. ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation.
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