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a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your purpose, and the way you give back. life well planned. erika: i love seeing interns succeed, i love seeing them come back and join the engagement teams and seeing where they go from there, i get to watch their personal growth, it makes my heart happy. (laughs) announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman founon. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news" >> hello, you're watching "the context" on bbc news. >> i think you have to put this letter in the context of our ongoing and long lasting about the levels of humanitarian

assistance that have made it to palestinian civilians. >> they say israel needs to improve what it's doing radically within 30 days. don't forget, within that 30 days is the u.s. presidential election. so there could be a sense here the israelis could run down the clock. >> not enough has been going in the southern areas of gaza and nothing has been going into the north. we've just had this small breakthrough where we've had 12 truckloads going with a truck of fuel as well. but it's just not enough. ♪ regina: the u. issues an ultimatum to israel, allow more aid to gaza or military assistance coulde cut. a small warning from the biden administration. we'll take a look what might come next. also on the program, thomas is

to to over as england's football manager succeeding southgate and what will he bring to the team? will there be a national insurance rise in the u.k.'s upcoming budget. and thed a machine straighter hasn't ruled one out. it's one of america's starkest warnings yet to its long time ally, a strongly worded letter from the u.s. to israel's government and says if it doesn't boost humanitarian aid to gaza the next 30 days it could see military assistance stop. the letter was written two days ago and called on urgent and sustained actions by the government this month to reverse the trajectory. let's go to our correspondent in washington, gordon kerara. does this letter come as a surprise to people in

washington? gordon: it has come out of the blue in one sense but the state department in the briefing the last hour or two said it isn't new in the sense they've been pressing for more aid to be able to get into gaza for some time. their point was back in april, they made representations to israel about the problems of getting aid in and that led to an increase in that case of aid deliveries getting back up to 300 to 400 trucks getting into gaza. but the state department has been saying that has now dipped to around half of that level with september being the lowest month of aid deliveries this year and has led to the concern and therefore this letter which was sent privately on sunday by the secretary of state secretary of defense to israeli counterparts but was clearly within a day or two leaked, leading to this public recognition there is this renewed pressure is the way they

put it, on israel to make it easier for some of that aid to get into gaza. regina: i don't think we've had substantive reactions from israel about this leaked letter. but this comes, this threat to withdraw u.s. military assistance to israel, just as the u.s. house sent over more help. gordon: that's right and comes at an interesting moment. it's not quite clear, there's a 30-day period for them to respond and there's no telling if they responded in any way but the u.s. is hoping there might be some change in the coming days and weeks that happened earlier in the year. you're right, it also comes at a moment when the u.s. supplied a missile defense system to israel and announced it is going over, announced that over the weekend including u.s. troops to operate

the sophisticated system to help israel defend against the threat of ballistic missiles from iran. i think you're seeing a complicated relationship here where the u.s. is supportive of israel in certain areas and more critical in others. it was noticeable the u.s. officials at the state department wer calling for cease-fire agreements in gaza and weren't using the same language when it came to lebanon and hezbollah and are more supportive in this case of israel's defense against a possible retaliation from iran because of course we're still waiting for israel itself to respond to that last iranian ballistic missile attack. so clearly different axis going on here at the moment the u.s. is playing. regina: thanks for the update, gordon. and he was talking about a state department briefing which took place in the last hour or so. our state department correspondent tom bateman was there and he asked a question. tom: just the challenge on the

point you discussed the timing of the letteand said the situation has changed but in a lot of ways it hasn't. you talked about 1.7 palestinians are at risk of a lethal contagion. that's been a situation building up and hasn't just happened overnight. there will be those who sayou had a year to issue this letter and issue such a stark warning to the israelis and why has it taken so long? >> it hasn't taken -- i completely reject the premise of the queson. we have intervened on numerous occasions. the point i made in a previous question, in the days right after october 7, the secretary was in israel having very difficult conversations with the prime minister about the need to let the first trucks come in across the border and was successful and got rafah to open up to let trucks cross the

border. we had difficult conversations with israel about the need to open carom shalom and we saw it open. we saw over the course of months repeated examples of the u.s., not any other country, but the united states intervening and getting results. now what we've see is a significant degradation in the amount of humanitarian assistance coming in. regina: let's turn to the latest in lebanon and the deputy chief of hezbollah gave a address and threatened to target all targets in israel and he said the solution to the conflict in israel is a cease-fire but warned the group was prepared to keep fighting and inflict pain on israel. meanwhile, the children's charity unicef said more than 400,000 children have now been displaced in lebanon with 90% of that number in the past three

weeks. an international affairs analyst at the university of south florida and global national security institute expert is here on "the context." before we talk about israel i want your reaction of this letter that's been sent by the secretary of defense and secretary of state to israel issuing a effective ultimatum? gu i think the united states tries to establish a balance to stand with israel as an ally but not to expand this scale of war. the americans are deploying a anti-missile system which is obviously a act of support but they're also cautious israel being armed and equipped if one of the most if not the most me

sophisticated missile system and it could be directed at nuclear and could wage war and is a sophisticated tangle but not encouraging the war in israel. regina: let's turn to the situation in lebanon. we've been talking about this attack that killed at least 21 people. it was and is really air strike in northern lebanon which is quite unusual and it hit a predominantly christian village. we see israel expanding its scope of attacks when comes to lebanon. what do you think the strategy is there and what might come next in terms of a possible response from hezbollah. guest: that's a very good question. first of all, israel is trying to retaliate a response as well as attack which led to the killing of the four soldiers and injuries of the others on the same dais real launched 37

aerial operations and launched rockets and some of it has a deterrence or retaliatory nature but the other part is the israel are really concerned why they are bombarding hezbollah's position in south lebanon as well as gradually, it seems is getting a food with demand system and moving to the north. one thing they're concerned about is after hezbollah's involvement that started in 2013-2014, hezbollah's military expanded and food in the northern part of lebanon and turned one of the corridors to syria and is a severe concern of hezbollah why they are getting under attack in the south, the north could be a place of refuge and they're trying to neutralize it. some of it has a retaliatory

impact after the hate attack and one to send a message to hezbollah and the lebanese government the israelis are very much capable to expand their scope of attack all over lebanon if hezbollah comes at similar actions in the future. regina: you talked about israel expanding the scope of its attacks, of course and there's the conflict, potential escalation between israel and iran. we saw of course iran sending those missiles towards israel and now people are braced for possible retaliation from israel and we know it's likely to come but the question is when and in what form? guest: i don't know when it's going to be but think it will be soon. i can't comment on behalf of israel but i believe the attack will be soon and won't be a while but this month and early

november. but while it seems the attack or retaliation is going to happen, the scope of it is going to be lesser and more limited than what we expected. the original expectation is the israeli air force would launch a strike against iran's oil refinery and nuclear facility and could be a full waged war but since the u.s. offered military support and with the projecti of the war, the israelis have limited their scope of revenge or retaliation and would most likely be the attack of military facilityies and the underground missile cities or by drone and missile building facilities and somewhere in that neighborhood but i think it's limited. regina: thank you for joining us in florida. thanks for sharing your thoughts. around the world and across the u.k., this is bbc news.

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regina: a development in sport and in the last half-hour or so, it's confirmed the former chelsea manager thomas tuchel will be the england's new manager and german wl take over from lee cossley and will be a manager of the team after fabio kapelo. and we have a brazil based fuhbol expert and specializes in the english teams. what do you make of this appointment, tim? tim: it shows the f.a. wanted to act quickly. part of the idea we thought of having a caretaker, lee crossley would buy time until the manager of real madrid would be

available and they decided not to do that and wanted someone is not in work now and actedhel quickly to bring someone in though lee had crossley will take charge of it for the next games but they wanted to end speculation and act quickly. aside from that i find it intriguing for a number of reasons. first is that international futbol is very different from club futbol. the club coach, he has his players all the time. he can work relentlessly with his players. and we know that tuchel is a detail fanatic and you see him as a lanky figure prowling the touch line with a permanent scowl as he casts his eye on the details. but for the national team, you simply don't have time training with your players to work on the little details, maybe the big idea is more important than the little detail. purely and simply because there's not the same time on the

training ground. so can tuchel adapt to that? there's no easy answer and only one way to find out. that intrigues me, can he adapt to the demands of a international coach. and tuchel doesn't tend to stay in the same place for very long. he's a fiery character and if you look through his career, even his brief career as a player and then as a coach, there have been lots of disagreements and why is the main problem and he fell out with munich after falling out with the owners of chelsea. yo look at the england dressing room and i think you can see some very fine players, a real talented generation but some big egos as well, perhaps. and you'd expect that from good players. you'd expect them to have an ego around them. i think thomas tuchel will ruffle a few feathers and uld

like to be a fly on the wall to see how he handles this dressing room of stars. regina: fuel inside that breaking sports news and there's plenty more on the bbc sports website, running a sports page, interesting fact i just picked up from that, out of 578 games he was in charge of across three different countries, he's boasted 337 wins. now, let's move to british politics and prime minister storma hasn't ruled out tax increases for businesses in his first budget in charge which comes in two weeks' times and he refused to rule out a rise in employer insurance contributions and in an interview with the bbc said such a change would not breach a manifesto commitment to protect work freers tax rises and is one of the biggest hints how the government plans to plug what it says is a 22 billion pound black hole when it comes to public finances. what would that mean and would it break a labor manifesto

pledge? ben from verify has been looking at it. ben: speculation on october 13 budget rates might be to impose national insurance costs on employers. firms currently pay this tax on the salaries they pay to workers but don't have to pay it on the money they put in people's pensions and the speculation is that might change. here's what labor's 2024 manifesto said in this area. we will not increase national insurance and labor will not increase taxes on working people. so with this national insurance hike, if it happened to break that pledge, ministers have suggested in recent case there's a -- recent days there's a distinction between national insurance paid to employees and not paid to employers and is true in terms of the direct impact. employee national insurance comes off your monthly paycheck and employer national insurance does not and is paid directly from the company to the government. but the direct impact of national insurance is a different matter.

ecomists who carefully studied the direct impact on the national insurance, most of it in the end falls not on the company and shareholders but the employees in the form of lower wages that otherwise would have been paid and less hiring than otherwise would have had happen. so in this sense would be a tax on working people and why many have described employer national insurance as a tax on jobs. it's estimated that imposing full national insurance on employers' pension contributions could raise around nine billion pounds a year and understandable why rachel reeves has billions of pounds on the books is examining it. but warning the chancellor raising more money from employer national insurance complicates and diorts the tax system and jobs market and in a way risks holding back growth. regina: that's ben chief from the bbc verify team and our

correspondent is in westminister. what did we hear from the bbc breakfast this morning? hannah: there's lots of reaction and is still an if whether or not they go ahead with this. we do not know for sure that this is going to be announced in the budget. if they do go ahead, that question about the manifesto pledge whether or not it breaks that will run and run. to some extent that is a question of semantics but already being used by the conservatives to attack labor and it does potentially raise issues of trust as well. e more profound implications as ben was saying there are potentially economic, the liberal democrats today have been urging the government to rethink on that basis. they say the chancellor should be protecting particularly smaller businesses who are the

backbone of the economy and in communities particularly in areas the liberal democrats represent. it was only yesterday that we have this big investment summit in london with the chancellor and prime minister urging businesses to invest in the u.k. to create more jobs. they say they brought in billions of pounds of investment and created jobs as a result of that but this clearly does illustrate the tensions that are there as the government tries to pursue that growth which is needs to bring in taxes to pay for public services but at the same time it says ihas a black hole in the public finances. the language around that has perhaps become a little bit optimistic in recent weeks after the doom and gloom of the early days of the government. but it's very much a reminder there are those tough decisions as the government likes to say

that will come up in the budget in two weeks tomorrow. regina: hannah miller, thanks very much for bringing us up to date on the politics around that. joining us to discuss it in more details is a lecturer at liverpool. dr. steve nolan. massive health warning that we don't know what will come in that budget. what hannah was saying there is it's clear the government said labor has said in the manifesto they wouldn't be increasing taxes on working people but there is the possibility that that could fall on the employer and employer pension contributions. can you explain how this might work if it's going to be in the budget. steve: at the moment pension contributions by the employer don't face national insurance contribution and potentially that would be an increase in tax for the employer. so the argument of whether or

not it ends up being paid by working people is almost to a certain extent is dancing. and as ben was explaining there's concerns for the economic research that in the long run this kind of thing ultimately ends up being paid for by workers and can be in a number of ways. in the short term it may be because businesses have this increasing cost may not make hiring decisions they were going to hire and people that were going to get jobs don't get jobs and in the long run you see pay raises not being as high as much. ultimately, even though when we get our paychecks we don't see these kind of employer national contributions, they are a part of the cost of employing labor. so if you increase that cost that has to be dealt with in some way and ultimately it does usually fall on the pair of workers. regina: that's one step of explaining how it can affect

things, a massive caveat if it comes up in the budget. the government says something like 22 billion pound black hole in the public finances. i was reading the institute fiscal studies, the i.f.s. says if you introduce national insurance at the full 13.8% rate, that could raise as much as 17 billion pounds and could be quite a good money spinner but wouldn't plug the entire gap. what is your assessment of that? steve: no, it wouldn't plug the entire gap and that 17 billion goes down to 12 billion when you consider the upset to workers which the government would have to cover there. so there's still going to have to be other revenue rated. now, a lot of this story, and in particular of this kind of looking for interesting ways to raise taxes because of how the government banged its hands in the election promising not to raise income tax and national insurance contribution or

corporation tax, they're the massive revenue raisers in our economy and came up at 75%. if you immediately promise you're not going to touch those, if you want to balance the budget, and there a budget that needs to be balanced, it means the government is having to scramble around for various different taxes that are not necessarily the most efficient way to be designing our tax system. regina: what are more efficient ways then? steve: i'm an economist and don't have to deal with the political realities but really when we have things like the split between income tax and national insurance, it doesn't really make any sense. we should just have one income tax. now, that would be a more efficient way and get rid of a lot of distorted behavior, weird incentives for people to plan their incomes in certain ways. but i'm aware that for a politician to enact this kind of thing there would be a lot of sts for them.

regina: dr. steve nolan, thank you very much for taking us through some of the numbers on that. and of course we don't know what's going to be in the budget for sure until it's announced in a couple weeks. a great reminder of the breaking news that we got this last hour or so and that is that thomas tuchel has agreed to become england's new futbol manager and the third british nonmanager of the team and he managed chelsea between 2021-2022 and we'll have more on that in a short moment. stay with us here on "the context." announcer: funding for prestation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. announcer: fding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation,

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