wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. now you won't miss a thing. this is the way. xfinity internet. made for streaming. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by...

woman: a successful business owner sells his company and restores his father's historic jazz club with his son. a raymond james financial advisor get to know you, your passions, and the way you bring people together. life well planned. brett: you know as someone coming out of college it can be very nerve-racking not knowing what to expect, whether you'll like your job or not, whether you'll make friend whether you'll fit in, and here i feel like it's so welcoming and such an inclusive place to work, you just feel like you're valued. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news" . i'm christian fraser. . you're watching the

context on bbc news. mr. trump: my only purpose in even being here today, get out and vote. vp harris: are we ready to do this? we are ready to get out the vote? we are ready to win? all right. >> we know from all the talks this is a deeply divided nation, but one thing is clear and that is they have been exhausted by this campaign. christian: donald trump oc former pete chief of staff, mick mulvaney, jess o'connell, and emmy-winning broadcaster and journalist caroline. it is the last pitch. kamala harris, donald trump on the final campaign sprint before

tuesday's presidential elections. the vice president will spend her entire day in pennsylvania, the bigge of the battleground states. she's making stops in five different cities. donald trump also in pennsylvania this afternoon, but for the third day in a row, the former president started in north carolina. in final polls, kamala harris had a narrow lead within the margin of error. our panelists, donald trump's former chief of staff, mick mulvaney, former ceo of the democratic national committee, jess o'connell, and the emmy award-winning broadcaster and journalist, caroline. so a very good evening. we are almost done. and i, kamala harris philadelphia. donald trump in michigan, and

what comes next is anyone's guess, but we do know this is one of the most consequential elections for america, particularly those affected by wars in the middle east anin ukraine. the stakes in this election are as high as it gets, and to all the millions of dollars that have been spent by the two campaigns, $600 million in pennsylvania alone, the polls suggest this is as close as it gets. the final "new york times"=si enna poll shows kamala harris with marginal leads, and the two virtually neck and back in michigan, georgia, and pennsylvania. it has been an ugly campaign filled with insults, lies, two assassination attempts, and many court cases involving the former president. perhaps it is fitting that the

operative word of the final few days of the campaign was "garbage." >> i don't know if you know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. i think it is called puerto rico. ok. all right. pres. biden: let me tell you something. i don't know the puerto rico i know, the puerto ricans in my home state of delaware, they are good, honest people. the only garbage out there are his supporters. vp harris: i strongly disagree with any criticism of people bad on who they vote for. mr. trump: this truck is in honor of kamala and joe biden. i don't blame him for sticking with his daughter, but his daughter is a very dumb individual. very dumb. she's a radical war hawk. let's put her with a rifle

standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, ok, let's see how she feels about it. vp harris: donald trump has spent a decade trying to keep american people divided and afraid of each other. that is who he is, but america, i'm here tonight to say that is not who we are. mr. trump: the mics, yeah, i think the mics stink. i think it stinks. do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage? [applause] christian: tomorrow night, i will be at the big screen taking you through theesults as they come in. here is a reminder of how this is going to work. the winner of the popular vote on election night is not necessarily win the white house.

one of these two candidates will need to win the electoral college. california, the biggest of them all, has 64 electors. a state like florida, the third-biggest, has 30. it is a race to 270. three states we can allocate ahead of time, those in red republican, those in blue democratic, which leads us to seven battleground states. kamala harris has 21 different paths tohe white house through these southern states, but the simplest route is probably two areas, the midwest, wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. so long as they win the second congressional district in nebraska, omaha, that will get us to 270. what about donald trump? certainly he needs to do better in the south. he would need to hold onto north

carolina, win georgia and arizona, and even if he became the first republican presidential candidate to win nevada since 2004, that would leave him short. he still needs one of the midwest states. but he will take confidence from 2016. the blue wall crumble. he won all three of those midwest states. in 2020, he reverted back to blue. joe biden won each of these states but by the slimmest of margins. he won michigan by 155000 and pennsylvania by 81,000 boats. -- votes. on tuesday night, i must warn you, we will be waiting for results. our panel here, let's quickly dive into north carolina. helen humphrey has been following events for us. explain to us why north carolina is now a battleground state and what each needs to do in order to take it tomorrow.

helena: it has been important for donald trump, who needs to win north carolina. if he does not, he is, frankly, on a more shaky path toward heading for the president to lead. as for kamala harris, this could be her best chance of flipping a battleground state blue. you and i have discussed how slim the margins were in 2020. president biden losing by just about one percentage point, so a very slim margin making this a potentially a very slim battleground state. suburban women, when we think about north carolina, remember that here in the south, this is just one of two states where abortion is still permitted past six weeks. what you see as many women coming in from neighboring states seeking to obtain an abortion in this state. wet kamala harris willing to do is drawing to 60% of white women

voters who backed donald trump in 2020, to remain with a chance of flipping the state. then there are things like the covid migration, when people were worki from home, many young professionals, moving away from liberal cities due to the cost of living, moving to places like here, sunbelt states. that influenced things. taking a look at the economy, you know, it is a big issue in this election, if not the biggest issue, but when you look at the data, job creation in north carolina, president biden has created far more jobs than donald trump. some of the other things in terms of immobilization, why do they need to do to change this? at this stage, as we know, it is all about the ground game to make getting your base out and then some. i was speaking to a chair of a county democratic party, and he was telling me he believes this is the best ground game he has seen in terms of doorknocking, mobilizing democratic voters, imploring them to vote. he said since 2008, of course

2008 is when barack obama managed to flip this state. a lot of republican volunteers going to the blue ridge mountains, for example, the western part of this state that was hard hit by hurricane helene, bringing people down the mountain. it will be a case of people affected by the hurricane as well, getting them out to vote. one thing i will say to you, christian, is we were poised to go to what was one of kamala harris's last rallies. that was canceled. make of that what you will, choosing to remain in pennsylvania. it does not mean she's more confident about north carolina or potentially more concerned about pennsylvania. christian: thank you very much for that. mick mulvay, let me start with you kid you grew up in charlotte. third time in as many days donald trump has been in north carolina. is that becae of panic? mick: no. you always look at where folks go in the last days of the race

to where they think they can make the biggest difference. just because you go to a state does not mean they are in a panic. north carolina is going to be very, very close. i spent the last couple days driving through the rural parts of the central part of the state, and there were a lot more harris-walz signs up that i remember from the last couple of election cycles. north carolina is a true swing state, a true purple state. i do not believe georgia is. georgia is a republican state. the republican governor won by 10 or 12 points the last time he ran. i sort of get that feeling harris is doing better there than republicans might think in north carolina. christian: you have to go back to 2008 to find a democrat that had won it in a presidential election, and far farther back, to the 1980's, wouldn't you, to find another democrat who had won? mick: that is the top of the

ticket. you are absolutely right as far as president, but north carolina has had a democrat governor now for the last eight years. they expect to elect a new democrat governor this time. democrat statewide officers do well. yes, the republican party has done well at the top of the ticket, yes they control some of the ticket seats, but the house races there have always been narrowly completed. to your point, if republicans win at the top of the ticket, they do tend to win by that narrowest of margins. a much more purple state than georgia, where the republica party does dominate, usually, on statewide office. christian: jess, kamala harris finishes in philadelphia tonight. all these cities in the midwest are going to be crucially important to kamala harris. conspicuous by his absence is the president. will we see him tonight? jess: i'm not sure where president biden is set to be. i think he was just there over the weekend.

but i think kamala harris is the one who is running this race right now. she is spending a ton of time in pennsylvania and has crisscrossed a lot the battleground states. i think they are going to finish strong there. i think some of the trends we see in pennsylvania -- first of all, the amount of enthusiasm out there, it will be a very close race. these doors are getting knocked over and over again. these voters are getting a chance to talk to people one-on-one about the issues that matter most to them. the ground game that has been going on in pennsylvania is very, very strong. these folks are activated, and they are going to get to talk about the issues that matter most. kamala harris is prioritizing pennsylvania. i don't think that is a surprise. that is an important state in this race right now. christian: yeah. kamala harris knocked 3 million doors just this past weekend, caroline. if you look at the polling, the polling on which way it will go

is tight, but the same polls, 66% believe the country is on the wrong track. they are annoyed at the incumbent government, normally that means they vote for change. so why is it so tight? caroline: christian, you are absolutely right. kamala has had a real uphill battle, to be honest, hasn't she? even though she's not technically the incumbent, she's only the incumbent's ticket, it has been a challenge for her. that will be the question we will be asking ourselves come wednesday, the day after the election, did she draw enough daylight between herself and president joe biden? has she done enough to convince people that are changed economy, as she likes to call it, is going to be robust enough that they do feel that they can vote for her and make a difference. there will be a lot of people who say they don't have confidence for the vote, former president trump, of course january 6, notwithstanding, a convicted felon a, and of course

the litany of court cases still ahead of him. but, you know, i want to something that mick said as well, and jess, and georgia, i'm in one of these swing states, and i have to say, not the doorknocking, texts, you will hear it from everybody, people have been inundated with text messages. i early voted. i'm an american citizen, and that was my privilege to do that and exercise that right. but my phone of everyday, christian, my phone is blowing up, i feel like the life of the party. i think i'm a party claim, but no, it is just, "have you voted?" i did tell them i have voted. but to get out the vote effort has been intense this election cycle. christian: yeah. i got a sense that you are not unique, caroline, maybe other people are getting texts as well could i don't know. this is a turnout election,

quitclearly, both candidates need to get their votes to the booths tomorrow. what neither can rely on is the infrequent voters, voters who did not vote in 2020, maybe did not vote in 2022, and that is really where the anxiety lies. studies have found that very often men overestimate their likeliod of turning out compared to women. not the only thing men overestimate, is it? [laughter] that is a crucial factor for donald trump. as big as it has ever been in these battleground states, it is those group -- that group of low propensity voters that leans towards trump. if it is getting them to turn out, then you would think, mic k, that would improve his margins in these states. mick: it will, but it is one part of the multivariable equation. what is fascinating about this election, christian, is the historic norms are

falling apart. republicans are leaving white, suburban women, white, married women. donald trump is making tremendous inroads with male african-american and hispanic voters, traditional democrat voters. it's been a strange kind of year. you asked why, by the way, why is it different. if somebody thinks the countries in the wrong direction, then why is the election so close. because it is becoming a referendum about donald trump, it is not trump versus here is, it is trump versus himself. that is what is driving folks to the polls. donald trump is a turnt machine to -- for republicans. he's also a turnout machine for democrats. if you look at these low propensity voters, they come out for donald trump to that is unequivocally good for the trump campaign, but at the same time, he might be driving people to

the folks who are not voting for him. christian: do you think his closing arguments have put more women on board? mick: no, but i don't put much weight on closing arguments. i don't think there are many undecided voters left in the country. i think folks made up their mind on this a good while ago. if you are still undecided, it means you are a person who does not pay attention or is not care. maybe there's an exception to that, but it will be a small fraction of percentage of people. christian: i think mick is right, jess, when you look at the polls, trump does not seem to break 47, 48. if you are excited about donald trump, one of two things is going to happen, you might stay-at-home, only my vote for kamala harris. coming back to caroline's point, do you think she has done enough to turnout, you know, black voters in detroit for latino voters in phoenix, arizona?

what has she done to inspire them? jess: yes, of course, donald trump is activating people in this country, one way or another, no question about it, but there's something else animating this race as well that we have to talk about is abortion, which you mentioned suburban white women, but there is a double digit gender gap for americans that have voted already. if you look across the country since the fall of roe v. wade, any time abortion has been on the ballot, it has won. abortion rights, reproductive rights, freedom has won. there are other issues like abortion, the economy, and donald trump and democracy, in this election. i don't entirely agree that people have not made up their mind, people are working hard. we do have to do some work on the economy. people are struggling to make ends meet in different places, and we got to do some work around all of that. the reality is they are tuning and now as they should be. they still have an opportunity

to vote. 75 million americans have already voted, but a lot more are still going to vote. as far as inroads into communities of color, young people, you see movement. there are going to be new voters in this election that were not around for the last couple of times i donald trump won, and i think we are going to see that in the results, but it is going be close. christian: yeah. since you are there in atlanta, caroline, we should talk about black voters, and particularly black men. there is no doubt, as just just said, there's a huge --jess just said, the's a huge gender gap. what about young black men? caroline: i think that, christian, historically, black voters have turned out for democrats. that is something that i think is still going to be tr here, whether or not kamala has been able to convince black voters, who see pain in the pocket books, lots of voters in the country, and certainly inflation

is coming down, and stock markets are up, but not everybody is invested in the stock market, right? if you talk to the average americans, they are extremely concerned about making ends meet. a lot of them are concerned about whether or not they will be able to send their children to college, so there is certainly a lot that is riding on whether or not kamala harris will be able to get that messaging out. i will say a lot of attention, rightly so, has been on has she been able to do it come up get the vote out with the black community. the black community has been showing up. will they show up for the democrats, kamala harris? white women. this is an underscore matrix. not to put an onus on a group, but maybe a little bit missing on the margins, but for the most part, majority wise, black communities tend to vote democrat, and i do think that that will be the case for kamala harris. christian: all right.

we will take a shortreak. when we come back, we will look at one poll that has that everyone excited, the poll in iowa. we will talk about that, right around the corner. ♪

christian: welcome back. iowa is one state that is not considered one of the battleground states, but it was the talk of the weekend. the respected polls from "the des moines register," which is always out before election day, has kamala harris leading donald trump by three points, 47% to 44%, within the margin of error. four years ago, when it looked like biden was wanting for victory over trunk, it was the reality -- trump, it was the reality check delivered. since then, she has been seen as something of an oracle on iowa politics. jess, i'm sure this created

great excitement over the weekend, but there was a huge margin of error with this. what do you take from the underlying elements of this poll that gives you hope in other states? jess: look, i think the closing days of elections do matter, and i think it is about momentum and energy. i have the privilege of working in iowa many times and met the good folks out in iowa. these are thoughtful people who really, typically get a chance to get to know candidates. a lot of them got to know kamala primary, so it is not that she is not exactly new to them the way she might be new or to some other folks throughout the country. it is within the margin of error. this is a neck and neck race, there's no question about it. but a bunch of text chains going this weekend for sure. christian: i'll bet.

what you see in that, mick? and this is the first federal election since dogs, since the supreme court ourned -- dobbs, since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. women who are turning out for her, the summer in iowa, a six man in place, is this-- six-week ban in place, is this women catching up to dobbs? mick: some of the poles you are talking about are accurate, but donald trump is going to win iowa. kamala harris is not going there. if they thoughshe would win there, she would be going there like donald trump did, when he got late news that michigan was in play come and he spent the last weekend there. i have respect for and sells her. she has a good reputation for being -- for ann selzer.

she has a good reputation for being a goodp pollster. she had 9% undecided the less we can before the election. i don't believe that. i don't put a lot of weight in this particular poll. the trend you mentioned generally about women and abortion, i think that is an accurate conversation to have, but i don't think anybody other than some of the most progressive left wing sort of hopefuls believe that iowa is really in play. christian: ok. well, we will see what the results bring in. certainly one to watch. we will see if that poll bears out. after the break, we will focus announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provideby... financial services firm, raymond james.

announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for amera's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by...