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and thiss "the context." >> i won't bring to the cabinets approval and outline for a cease-fire in lebanon. the duration of the cease-fire will depend on what will happen in lebanon. >> it is due to be presented to the water cabinet presumably tomorrow and that, most people say, is a formality. i think we can assume it is pretty much -- >> it can also help us to end the conflict in gaza, in particular, hamas will know they cannot count on other fronts opening up in the war. ♪ christian: the israeli prime minister says his cabinet is meeting tonight to approve a deal that will end the fighting with hezbollah in lebanon. after 13 months of rocket attacks and a land invasion that lasted two months, it's expected the fighting will stop tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. local.

we have plenty of reaction for you tonight as well as world leaders responding. we are expecting a statement from joe biden shortly. how quickly can 60,000 people from northern israel returned to their homes, where does that leave the fragile fractured politics in lebanon, and with us all this mean for gaza and the palestinians in the west bank? very good evening. the israeli cabinet is set to approve a u.s.-brokered cease-fire that will pause fighting with the lebanese militia hezbollah. the cease-fire will come into effect at 10:00 wednesday moing despite opposition from some hard-liners in prime minister benjamin netanyahu's cabinet. it comes after several days of intense bombardment in beirut. this afternoon, and while the israeli's securityouncil were in discussions, there were dark pillars of dark smoke drifting above the lebanese capital as one airstrike after another targeted hezbollah positions.

the intensity of the strikes perhaps a clue that the israeli forces recognize they are now on the clock. this was the israeli city of haifa as the population to cover when rockets went the other way, telling you this will be an extremely precarious peace. has bella still retains a significant capability. we will discuss the framework of that shortly. we are expecting statements imminently from president biden, president macron, and the prime minister of israel. >> why go into cease-fire now? there are three main reasons. the first, focusing on the iranian threat. i don't want to expand on that. the second, to allow our forces

to refresh and also allow our resources to be replenished. it is no secret that there have been some delays in the supply of ammunition and arms, and this delay is going to be removed. we are going to have advanced weapons and that will save a lot of of our shoulders -- save the lives of o soldiers and give us great force to perform our missions. the third reason for the cease-fire is to disconnect the two arenas and isolate hamas. from the second day of the war, hamas relied upon hezbollah to fight and with hezbollah out of the picture, hamas will be left on its own. christian: here is the outline of the deal. according to the terms of the deal, hezbollah will withdraw forces from southern lebanon, moving 25 kilometers back from the israeli border north of the litani river. in turn, israeli troops will

withdraw from southern lebanon over a period of 60 days with the regular lebanese army deploying in their place alongside an existing you enforce that is already there known as unifin. the contours of this agreement are not dissimilar to the agreement to end the war in 2006. some of the you and resolutions 1701, and each site has complained that each site has not fully respected their obligations. the israelis are seemingly reassured that this time an international committee will oversee enforcement headed by the united states. here is the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken outlining his thoughts on a potential cease-fire at a meeting of g-7 foreign ministers. >> it will make a big difference in creating the conditions to allow people to return to their homes safely in northern israel and southern lebanon. i also believe that by the escalating tensions in the region, it can also help us to

end the conflict in gaza. in particular, hamas won know that it cannot count on other fronts opening up in the war so, we are tracking this very closely. i hope and believe we can get th over the finish line. christian: just getting news actually that there is now an evacuation order in parts of central beirut. you can see the center of the city a very active through the course of the day. in fact, 20 airstrikes within the last couple of minutes. let's go to beirut with our middle east correspondent. i was thinking tonight, hugo, i was there in 2006 for the cease-fire in beirut, it was a very noisy evening. you get a mix of emotis at a time like this, it becomes very dangerous, the final few hours of a conflict when a cease-fire is pending. hugo: yes, it's been a dramatic really attacks here in the areas

in southern beirut where hezbollah is based, came under intense israeli airstrikes. even here in central beirut, there have been multiple attacks targeting parts of central beirut. earlier today, a building collapsed not very far from here when there was a huge israeli attack. a couple hours ago, we tried to get to the location of the attack but we could not get there because there was another evacuation warning. we were there when the israeli airstrikes were hitting parts of central beirut. so its a dramatic evening here. the expectation is that more attacks are going to come during the night just before this cease-fire comes into effect. we have not had an official announcement yet. reports suggest that this will happen at 10:00 local, 8:00 gmt, and again, the hope here is that this will put an end to more

than a year of violence between israel and hezbollah. this conflict has been devastating for lebanon. more than 3500 people have been killed. one million people displaced. there have been widespread destruction across the country. a lot of people here obviously want to see this cease-fire and recovery but it will take a long time. christian: we know the deal had a green light from hezbollah but do we also presume it has the support of the powers that be in tehran, and why would they be prepared to do that when we were told earlier it was contingent on an end to the conflict in gaza? hugo: exactly. we heard from sources say that hezbollah and iran had given the green light for this deal to go ahead. hezbollah has been extremely weakened after weeks of intense israeli airstrikes. it is now diminished here in lebanon.

obviously, iran knows it is in a very difficult situation because it is seeing its proxies across the region being targeted, not only here in lebanon but also syria, and yemen, as well. all of these groups supported by iran, backed by iran, carrying out attacks against israel. i think there is obviously the big question here in lebanon about hezbollah's future after the war. it is now diminished, still very powerful because of the support that it has especially among she young muslims in this country -- shia muslims in this country, but there is a thinking that the next chapter in this country could include more internal violence. again, we have seen those reports suggesting that hezbollah has agreed to withdraw its positions from the south of the country, and a lot of people here in lebanon will see that this deal is humiliating for

hezbollah. they were in a strong position before this conflict. they were seen as a major threat by the israeli government, and now they have been extremely weakened. on the others, this is a major victory for israel. not only have they managed to degrade hezbollah in a very significant way, but now as a part of this deal, not the deal agreed with the lebanese authorities, but a side deal with the americans, they have the recognition of this right to be able to attack lebanon if there is any kind of violation of this deal. this is a major point here, point of controversy because lebanese see this as a major breach of the country's sovereignty. but the americans, as a part of the deal, have recognized israel's right to go ahead with these attacks. in this country, this deal is being seen as a defeat for hezbollah but as a victory for israel. christian: some really interesting themes in all of

that that we will pick up through the course of the program, not least the politics internally in lebanon. thank you for that. we are awaiting a statement from joe biden which i guess is delayed pending approval from the full israeli cabinet. let's go to washington to speak to our washington correspondent gary o'donoghue who is there. it's all about legacy for joe biden. how much pressure do you think they have put on israel behind the scenes to get this across the line? gary: a lot, and they put a lot of effort d diplomatic effort into this. i think this will be seen as clearly something of a victory for the outgoing administration, if he gets over the line, and if it holds until at least january 20, which is when the inauguration of donald trump will take place. you will remember the amount of time and effort that was put into the situation in gaza over the last year. that has not produced an outcome that the americans or anyone

else is satisfied with, so this is at ast something of a victory in place of that. interestingly, donald trump, his team consulted on the deal apparently, said that they viewed it favorably, but in the last few minutes, donald trump, not able to resist an opportunity, said in a statement, donald trump rightly predicted that axes in the region would make moves toward peace because of his historic victory, and that is exactly what we are seeing take place. donald trump trying to claim credit for this as well. christian: do we think that could form part of it? he said he didn't want to inherit a mess in the middle east, and we know that prime minister netanyahu is closer to donald trump than he ever was to joe biden. gary: i don't think there is any doubt that in these sort of --

places like america are on the one hand incredibly vulnerable in national security terms. these are weak moments, if you like, for the united states, within outgoing president, president not yet in power. but also, they do shakeup views around the world, they make people reassess, make people second guess what might be coming may not be as favorable to them or more favorable. they are -- they have a catalytic kind of power, but i don't know. it is reasonable to think that this change it could make people think differently. christian: always good to get your thoughts. maybe we will come back to you when we get this statement from joe biden later. we will take a short break. around the world and across the u.k., you are watching bbc news. ♪

christian: welcome back. the lives of thousands of people in israel in northern lebanon on hold tonight, their hopes for the near future resting on a cease-fire which is scheduled to start at 10:00 tomorrow morning. i doubt if you're in beirut there is much celebration at least not yet. the final hours of the conflict, sometimes the most dangerous. the israeli military bombarded the subur this afternoon. there have been rare evacuation orders in central and western beirut as well, including in busy commercial district near the american university, not to mention the precarious nature of cease-fire when forces are withdrawing. with us to look at it in more detail is a senior associate fellow at the royal united services institute. you are always welcome on the program. can we take a look at the deal itself, what is on the table? what was the problem with the previous u.n. resolution 1701?

why was that agreement made in 2006 not working, and why is this different? >> there are a number of different reasons why the previous resolution was not deemed to be satisfactory. what is different this time around is that the israelis consider they have graded hezbollah tremendously, that the lebanese army is going to move into the south, and they will take responsibility for security there. as far as we can tell, and we don't know this completely for sure at this point, but the information i have received is that unifil will continue to be the monitoring force. the biggest question about the deal is whether the israelis will hold to it over the 60-day period and thereafter. i personally think they will. that has everything to do with

the fact that there is a trump administration coming in, and i don't think the trump administration wants to have a war erupt in the first week or so of the new term. i do think this particular deal will hold, at least these are the indications now. i don't think it portends anything good for gaza, i don't think it is bad news for gaza, but no good news coming out of this for gaza. on the contrary, i think we will see a lot more destruction and pain there. christian: you put your finger on one of the issues in the proposal, the referral process. supposedly a five-nation committee that will decide whether there has been a breach of the terms. yet, from prime minister netanyahu tonight said that if we see a truck being moved with weapons on it, we reserve freedom of action, reserve the

right to respond immediately. i suppose the big question is, as you say, whether israel itself will abide by the process. >> absolutely. that is an open question. it is a 60-day pause, but the israelis can abrogate at any particular point. even if that is not explicitly said in the resolution or the deal itself. let's be clear, there will not be any system of accountability if the israelis decide to break the deal at any particular point. it is not that there will be sanctions from the u.s. or something if the israelis decide to break the deal. so the question comes down to, will the israelis themselves view it as strategic and in their interest to uphold the terms of the deal? as it stands right now, i think they will. but we do have to wait and see. christian: the idf set on their

social media channel today that they had reached the litani river, so this will be a slow process, retreating back to the border. can we pick up on a couple of things that hugo set at the top of the program? first and foremost, the lebanese army, which he said, is much weaker than hezbollah. in what is being reported tonight, that they will need to be bolstered. can you imagine a scenario where a lebanese army could go into this out and order has been allowed to remove rockets and go into tunnels and be accepted? >> i think what you have seen already is that hezbollah has given the indication that they will supporthe deal. i think there have been reports that the iranians have signed off on that as well which is important for hezbollah. i don't think this is really a question of could the lebanese army do this or that against hezbollah? the larger question is whether

lebanon, writ large, wants to see an end to this war on lebanon, destruction in the south, huge civilian casualties all over lebanon as a result of israeli strikes. i think, broadly speaking, they do. as a rest of that, there is a recognition that there needs to be a bolstering of the lebanese state, bolstering not only of the lebanese armed forces but of the lebanese state more generally. because the way forward is not going to look any better for lebanon unless that actually happens. the indications we have seen so far is that hezbollah is on board with that. the question i have is, how will the authorities in lebanon put together a process that pulls everyone together, all different confessions, groupings in the country, in a way that maintains

the peace that we have seen in lebanon for so long among lebanese? not talking about the invasion, occupation, bombardment by israeli occupations. there is widespread desire in that regard for lebanon to remain a country that isn't at war with itself. and i think the lebanese will hold to that. the side question in this regard is whether or not they will be supported in this regard externally, or if they will be provoked by external forces. i do think it is important for people to keep in mind, irrespective of what gets signed or doesn't get signed, we can expect a lot more violence, destruction in lebanon from the israeli forces right up until the end of the, right until the time the cease-fire comes into effect. christian: this is the point that hugo is making.

you have a country, lebanon, already suffering from compounding crises, economic, political, banking, now plunged into an even deeper void with presumably some recriminations for what hezbollah has dragged them through again, and has weakened hezbollah. do you see a scenario where the different groups which sit uncomfortably together in the parliament could start to pull apart? >> i think that people remember in lebanon how that looked when lebanon was at war with itself. i don't think anyone is hearkening to go back to that. i think there will be serious conversations to be had about the role of hezbollah, about the relationship between hezbollah and the lebanese state, lebanese armed forces, who holds weapons as a military force. decision-making. there will be serious questions

about that. that will be a subject for the lebanese to sort out. but i think the important thing for external actors to realize is, that is a lebanese discussion, not an american discussion, not in israeli discussion, not an iranian discussion. if it is a lebanese discussion and genuinely so, it will hold, it will be cohesive, it will be constructed, it will maintain. christian: always good to have you on the program. thank you for your time. reading a comment from israel's security minister who opposed the process, said we must not trust anyone but ourselves. we must have our own security bell. let's bring in our security correspondent frank gardner. not universally accepted within the security cabinet. frank: we always knew that he would oppose this, took two social media in the last 48 hours of saying it is not too late to stop the deal.

he argues that now is the time with hezbollah on the back foot to basically press forward israel's military advantage and eliminate it altogether. but that is not a war aim of the israeli government, at least not a stated one. i'm sure they would be delighted if hezbollah banished from the state of the earth, but their aim was to drive them north of the litani river north of the residents of galilee, close to the border on the israeli side, could find it safe enough to return home. hayes opposition was always well known. he has always been on the far right, an extreme nationalist. this is someone who has made some very provocative, very nationalistic comments about gaza, about the west bank. he is not somebody who believes, for example, in the two state solution. it is no surprise that he is in opposition to this deal.

interestingly, some of the residents of northern israel have been saying that they are worried, partly agreeing with him in a way, worried that not enough has been done to deplete hezbollah's arsenal. they believe this is simply kicking the can down the road, that a cease-fire might be welcomed, but it does not take away the long-term capability of hezbollah to fire rockets at them. christian: just on that point, one minute left, sirens sounding in central israel after the announcement from prime minister netanyahu. you can see why residents in the north would be concerned, given the rocket that came over the border on sunday, over 200 of them. frank: the darkest hour is always the one before dawn. everyone knew that a cease-fire deal was coming. the israeli military took the opportunity to go for as many targets as they could in the remaining hours before a cease-fire goes into effect.

also it is quite possibly a way of putting pressure, don't even think i'm going back on the deal. israel reserves the right, as it puts it, to freedom of action, to go back into lebanon with airstrikes. it is a fragile deal, whoever approves or disapproves. christian: frank gardner in jerusalem, thank you for that. we are continuing to watch the sky line in beirut. as he said, the darkest hour is always just before dawn. plenty of activity in and around the city over the last 12 hours or so, and parts of central beirut tonight under an evacuation order from the israeli forces. we will continue to watch and analyze the deal which is about to unfold. you are watching bbc news. ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james.

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