>> chinese president xi jinping reportedly calling president-elect donald trump to congratulate him. >> trump naming more china hawks to his cabinet... >> he said that he intends to impose tariffs on products imported from china by as much as sixty percent. >> narrator: at a pivotal moment, correspondent martin smith examines the rise of the chinese leader. his life... >> xi jinping learned as a teenager that if you want to survive, you have to master the tools of the maoist tool kit. you have to be redder than anybody else. >> soldiers: >> narrator: his rule... >> xi was not afraid to say, no, we're not ging you the freedoms and rights you deserve. >> narrator: and relations with the united states. >> we can't continue to allow china to rape our country. >> will donald trump, who preaches america first, go to war to defend taiwan? >> you know, i'm not sure. >> narrator: now on frontline, china, the u.s. and the rise of xi jinping.

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(military band playing, crowd clapping in rhythm) (band continues) (song ends, crowd applauding and cheering) >> smith: in july of 2021, china marked the 100th anniversary of the founding of the chinese communist party. >> (speaking mandarin):

>> smith: in his speech, president xi jinping celebrated china's emergence as one of the wealthiest countries on earth. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: by all accounts, xi is the most powerful chinese leader since the founder of the people's republic, mao zedong. and, like mao, he has immense ambitions for his country. ♪ ♪ in his first decade in power, xi launched the largest infrastructure project in history, building ports, roads, and a massive digital network linking china to around 150 countries. ♪ ♪ he has made china the world's number-one producer of electric vehicles. >> (speaking mandarin) >> smith: he has invested heavily in a race with the u.s. to dominate the development of artificial intelligence.

he has plans to dethrone the dollar as the world's reserve currency. and xi has presided over an increasingly antagonistic relationship with the u.s. >> (speaking mandarin): (audience applauding) (cheering and applauding) (cheering) >> xi jinping is different. he does not want to be part of the world as it is. what he wants is to be much more dominant in the way the world is run.

>> smith: orville schell is widely recognized as the dean of china experts in the u.s. and has served as a consultant on this project. he has made many trips to china and has closely observed the rise of xi jinping. >> you can read his speeches, and it all there. he says what he's going to do, and he does it. >> (speaking mandarin): >> and we can't quite believe it's anything but propaganda, whe's laid it all out there., but it isn't. >> (speaking mandarin): >> xi jinping speaks all the time about hostile foreign forces, didui shili. (troops reciting) that is the core

of his sense of the u.s. and china relationship. it's hostile. ♪ ♪ >> smith: we set out to understand the roots of this hostility, to understand xi himself and the china he is leading. but china has heavily restricted international media and we were not allowed to reporfrom inside the country. no current official would speak to us on the record. china is not allowing us to come into china. why? >> china's handling all kinds of challenges in the world. you may or may not be on their radar screen. >> smith: victor gao is a well-known figure who travels the world speaking in defense of xi's china. we interviewed him in new york. what is it about xi jinping's presidency that has fomented this hostility between the u.s. and china? >> i disagree with the way you characterize the situation.

>> smith: but after 2012, when he comes into power... >> i would say, fundamentally, china and the united states need to deal with each other as equals, but china-u.s. relations are moving in a direction which is proving to be difficult and dangerous. ♪ ♪ >> smith: to begin, i wanted to know where xi jinping came from and how his past shaped him into the man he is today. he grew up during a tortured time in chinese history, but he was a child of privilege with red roots. xi's father had fought alongside mao zedong, and, after the revolution, had risen to become a high-ranking communist party official. young xi lived in a comfortable home and was able to attend the best schools. >> he was one of the so-called princelings, and there was a lot of privilege that he enjoyed.

so, xi jinping would have grown up... >> smith: joseph torigian is an auth and professor at american university. >> he went to a school that was primarily attended by the offspring of high-ranking cadres, and they were told that they were going to be the ones who were going to bring china to modernity, who were going to draw upon the legacies of the chinese communist party to transform society. (crowd clamoring) >> smith: prior to the 1949 revolution, china was ruled by a u.s.-backed dictator, chiang kai-shek. >> well-known to every american is lean, keen chiang kai-shek, undisputed leader and idol of millions of chinese. >> smith: mao called chiang a "running dog of imperialism." he fought to depose chiang for 22 years. >> despite aid from america, chiang's forces were beaten back. the revolution was now within mao's grasp, and it was the start of the biggest political

and economic experiment the world has ever seen. >> smith: beforeao's victory, china was among the world's poorest nations. inspired by communist theory, mao blamed china's wealthy elites for the nation's ills. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: mao embraced communist propaganda, like this film, to rally the people against landowners. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: dunce caps, a regular feature of mao's china, were used to publicly humiliate landowners, intellectuals, and disloyal politicians. (crowd roaring) in 1962, when xi jinping was just nine years old, his father became an unlikely victim of these purges.

mao accused him of being disloyal. (crowd roaring) xi's father was subjected to so-called struggle sessions, where he was beaten and denounced. >> his father was framed by a trump-up charge that he supported a novel that might have cast doubt on mao's leadership, and that's simple. >> smith: professor alfred chan is author of an exhaustive biography of xi jinping that chronicles his life. >> his father was drag out and parade in the street. in those day, they put a dunce cap on him, and he was subjected to mock trials. those were essentially kangaroo courts. (crowd shouting) >> smith: here, a sign hangs arou the neck of xi's father that reads "anti-party element xi zhongxun." >> we know that this was an emotionally traumatizing experience for him. when you're a member of the chinese communist party,

everything is the party. your entire life is the party. so, for the party to tell you that you oppose mao, it's hard to overestimate just how galling it is for a member of this kind of organization to hear that. >> smith: xi's father was sent to work in a factory and was later incarcerated for eight years. ♪ ♪ meanwhile, some of the party elite were having doubts about mao's leadership. a famine, the result of mao's failed farm policies, had devastated the country. >> these people have come with reports of people dying in the fields and starving peasants eating some of the seed for next year's planting. >> smith: undeterred, mao launched his so-called cultural revolution in 1966, expanding the categories of those who would be purged. (crowd chanting) >> so during the cultural revolution,

there was something known as the hei wu lei, the black categories. and these were the people who had no standing as human beings. they had no rights. they were considered unacceptable. or, i guess you'd have to say evil. they had to be overturned, and even, possibly, in all too many cases, exterminated. and we saw millions killed. they were not fully human. >> (singing in mandarin): >> smith: marauding bands of youth known as red guards were encouraged by mao to help root out the so-called black elements for punishment. >> (singing): >> (shouting)

>> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: cai xia, a longtime party member, came of age in the midst of the cultural revolution. you say he was the savior-- what did he save you from? >> (speaking mandarin): (crowd shouting indistinctly) >> one of the most pernicious and harmful aspects of the whole maoist revolution was that it distorted and made it impossible for people to be human, and to have family loyalties, friendship loyalties,

to keep any moral compass on whatsoever. ♪ ♪ >> smith: as a 13-year-old boy, xi himself was subjected to struggle sessions. he was forced to wear a dunce cap and was publicly denounced by his own mother. >> according to xi jinping, he suffered quite a few of those struggle sessions. and his half-sister, she couldn't take it, and she committed suicide. the psychological and physical abuse was tremendous. >> (calling in background) >> smith: at 15, xi jinping was sent to the countryside to do manual labor, a so-called sent-down youth. >> at that time, 17 million young people were sent to the countryside to be re-educated by the poor peasants.

mao thought that's the reality of china, the poor and underdeveloped countryside. xi jinping went to one of the poorest part of china, and he stayed there for seven years, and essentially worked as a peasant. work was really strenuous, so xi jinping, being a city kid, a princeling, was never used to the farmers' work style, like beasts of burden. ♪ ♪ >> at first, it was something he couldn't handle. he talked about the hard labor. he talked about living in a cave, he talked about how difficult it was to get along with the peasants. >> xi jinping did, at one point, just leave and try to go home. and his family refused to accept him. so, i mean, it's difficult to know what the consequences of something like that are, but we do know, fundamentally, that all human beings

have close connections to parents. and when those close connections go awry, they have consequences. ♪ ♪ >> i managed to visit this area where xi had served out the cultural revolution, a village in shaanxi province, so i think i got a somewhat unvarnished look at what life was like there. >> smith: until 2016, edward wong was "the new york times'" beijing bureau chief. >> this area of china is one of the poorest areas of china. back then, people lived in these cave homes, and xi lived in a cave home in the back of the house of this elderly man whom i met, mr. lu. mr. lu told me xi had books with him, and his light would be on late at night sometimes, reading. >> smith: xi's time in exile has become part of his creation myth.

a cave where he lived during his seven years here is now a tourist attraction. it's filled with books on marxist philosophy and political theory, which xi says he read in the evenings while struggling to survive, shaping him into the leader he would become. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: jianying zha and her family also barely survived mao. she now lives in new york, the author of eight books on china and a contributor to "the new yorker." >> i was born to this so-called new china, and i was fed this diet of,

"we're living in a strong and happy country," and, "we're going to grow up, and, you know, "not only build a better china, "but at some point, we're going to liberate mankind, including the americans." this was my mother, with myself... i was six, and i remember clearly this night where our house was ransacked by these red guards. they came at night, and our house was turned upside down, my parents were humiliated. you know, you go from the flowers of motherland, mao's children, to, suddenly, we're black elements. ♪ ♪ >> smith: how many people died as a result of the cultural revolution? >> there's different estimates of that. officially, one of the party elders said several millions people died.

(crowd chanting) but, you know, the figures are far from being accurate, because the government, whoever was the dominant regime, had always a tendency to cover up. ♪ ♪ >> smith: between the 1950s and the mid-1970s, china suffered an estimated 25 to 45 million deaths from the famine and om the eradication of black elements. ♪ ♪ >> this is our holocaust. and to this day, the world has not really come to realize that's really what happened. and the same party responsible for it are still in power,

and mao is still a icon? (music playing, people talking in background) >> smith: today, xi jinping lives and works aside this familiar portrait of mao overlooking tiananmen square in beijing. xi has embraced mao. >> it's a mystery why these people don't hate mao. you know? why don't they reflect why the cultural revolution happened... >> smith: li yuan, who grew up in china, now writes a column for "the new york times." >> xi jinping mself talk a lot about his suffering when he was a young kid. >> smith: he says it was good for him. >> yes, and now he, he's telling the chinese young people, "you should learn to eat bitterness. it's, it will be good for you." (people singing chinese national anthem) >> xi jinping learned as a teenager that if you want to survive, you have to master the tools of the maoist tool kit.

you have to be redder than anybody else. (crowd singing in mandarin) his education was one of surviving in a highly politicized environment of the cultural revolution, when his father was one of the antichrists, and xi had to find his way. and to do that, he had to become more political correct than anybody else. fundamentally, xi jinping drank the kool-aid of the cultural revolution. and those formative years really did cast the die. (song ends) (bicycle bells ringing, people talking in background) (car horhonks) >> smith: at age 22, xi jinping returned from the countryside. he had missed years of schooling, but he would manage to gain entrance

to one of china's most elite universities. >> yeah, he was lucky to be accepted into the tsinghua university. it's china's m.i.t. >> smith: well, this is a kid who has no secondary education, and he's able to get admitted to the most prestigious university in china. >> yes, very unusual. mao destroyed the educational system. but then, in the early 1970s, mao decided the educational system had to be reformed, not favoring the elite, but welcome peasants and workers and soldiers, as well. and that's how xi jinping got admitted. >> (speaking mandarin) >> smith: xi got a degree in chemical engineering, but his interest was in party politics. in 1979, after graduation, he was posted as a junior aide to a senior communist party official. but after three years in beijing,

xi decamped to the provinces to pursue his own political career and would rise through the ranks of local government. it was a time of great reform. (crowd cheering, marching band playing) mao had died in 1976, and china was now under a new leader, deng xiaoping. twice purged himself, deng had seen the horrors of the cultural revolution. >> deng and soldiers (speaking mandarin): >> smith: he set out to reverse many of mao's policies. (crowd cheering) >> the 1980s were an extraordinary decade. deng xiaoping was radically changing the relationship of the party to society. he broke up the people's communes, gave peasants property to farm individually, and suddenly, you go to the countryside and saw the most amazing open markets,

where people were selling things they had raised. (people talking in background) was a huge change. (car horns honking, people talking in background) >> it seemed like china was really different and opening, and it was changing really fast. >> smith: anne stevenson-yang worked for decades in china as a financial analyst and entrepreneur. >> ever since deng xiaoping told the politburo that they should change their mao jackets for sports jackets, every big city built these huge airports, and they had straight avenues, straight to these five-star hotels, and these hotels were better than any hotel you'd stay in in europe, and you'd think, "what's wrong with china? this is fantastic." >> today, under the leadership of deng xiaoping, the attitu toward capitalism is changing. not quickly enough for some members of the new generation, who see nothing wrong in mixing marxism with the market economy. >> as one china specialist put it,

such astounding things have been happening under deng that no one who works in the china field is willing to make predictions anymore. (marching band playing, crowd applauding) >> smith: in 1979, deng visited washington. (crowd applauding) deng's opening was seen as a welcome development in the west, and a policy of economic engagement held for the next four decades. >> now we share the prospect of a fresh flow of commerce, ideas, and people, which will benefit both our countries. >> smith: in china, free trade and foreign investment helped lift millions out of poverty. >> (chanting in mandarin): >> smith: but many chinese were not entirely won over, especially students. they were concerned about corruption and wanted democratic reform.

>> (speaking mandarin): >> (repeating): >> man: >> (repeat): >> smith: in the spring of 1989, pro-democracy demonstrations around the country were gathering momentum. (protesters singing) while still a provincial official, xi jinping watched carefully. >> xi jinping tried to gauge the political climate. what's going on? is the central government supporting this? >> (speaking mandarin): >> (repeating): >> and, being very cautious bureaucrat, back home, he tried to prevent students from outside to come in and to link up with the local demonstrations. >> (chanting in mandarin): >> smith: by early june, the protests boiled over. >> at this hour, there are hundreds of thousands of people here in tiananmen square. >> some observers say the current wave of unrest

is the greatest challenge the communist party has had to face. >> the momentum on tiananmen square was strong. for me, the most amazing experience is just hearing people's voice, yeah, from everywhere. >> smith: zhou fengsuo was a student leader during the tiananmen protests. he was among the first to enter the square. >> we want to have a dialogue with the communist government, and i think at that time, there was a real chance, because the party has positioned itself, after the cultural revolution, in the way of, you know, open and reform. >> (chanting in mandarin): >> so you feel like there's freedom in the air >> on tiananmen square.n): >> (singing national anthem):

>> i was on tiananmen square at the night of june 4. we were all standing like clusters, talking to each other. and suddenly, there was a guy standing there, and he fell backwards. and we didn't hear anything, so, you know, we're all stunned. and, and everybody thought, "oh, it must be rubber bullets," until we saw that he's not waking up, and he, there is a, like, a pool of blood or something from his neck. (guns firing) >> tanks are rolling in, down the main thoroughfare, towards tiananmen square. >> as we were kind of retreating, there were, i think, at least a dozen people right around me being shot down. >> the sporadic shooting, automatic weapons opened up, people were diving for cover. (guns firing, protesters screaming) (protesters clamoring) >> that night, it was the worst of china.

the monster reared its head. >> at one of the big intersections, an apc just ran over a, a young girl on a bicycle. it was charging down anything and everything-- barricades, people. and the protesters had put up the steel barricades, and this apc got stuck. and the crowd started gathering around it, hurling insults and rocks and sticks and everything. (crowd shouting) ♪ ♪ >> (speaking mandarin): >> see that guy? >> no. >> there's a guy right in front of the tank. >> smith: the next day, a man stood in defiance,

blocking a column of tanks. >> it wasn't just a single tank he stopped. there were 18 tanks and armored carriers in this convoy. >> he's climbing it. (people gasping and cheering) >> smith: the image of the tank man, as he was called, was carried around the world. >> at one point, defiant demonstrators set an ambulance on fire and aimed it at the troops. but the vehicle smashed into a traffic island, and that prompted the soldiers to open fire once more on the students. (guns firing) >> just overnight, the optimism that chinese felt for their own country, for this newly awakened, newly modernizing, newly reforming china, came to a very abrupt halt. >> smith: david shambaugh is a professor of u.s.-china relations at george washington university. he served in the state department and on the national security council during the carter administration.

>> i lived in china, right after tiananmen, in beijing. that was severe-- this was martial law. the city was occupied by military forces, there were roadblocks everywhere, foreigners were monitored constantly, chinese were monitored constantly, interrogated. so that was a really repressive period. >> in the news this morning, the government crackdown continues in china, where officials say they have arrested student leaders on their most wanted list. >> one of those captured, zhou fengsuo, a 22-year-old physics student. he reportedly was turned in by his sister and brother-in-law. >> smith: it's been reported that you were turned in by your sister. >> that was government propaganda. >> smith: it's not true? >> it's, it's not true. >> smith: zhou says it was a party tactic to sow distrust among his family. >> (speaking mandarin) >> smith: zhou fengsuo was fifth on the party's most wanted list,

and was thrown in prison for a year. >> when i was in prison, and later, for about five more years, the support for students even after the massacre was so strong. like, even the policemen, you know, the, the prison guards, they would acknowledge that the students were right in their demands. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: after the massacre, these photos were smuggled out of china, evidence of what happened to scores of protesters. ♪ ♪ to this day, there is no final accounting of how many people were executed. ♪ ♪

a footnote: after the tiananmen crackdown, soldiers who had opened fire on the protesters were serenaded by a popular chinese folk singer, peng liyuan. two years earlier, peng had married a junior communist party official, xi jinping. xi has never spoken publicly about the tiananmen events. he went silent. >> yes. nothing in the public record that i am aware of. that really shows his cautious demeanor as a provincial official, and he always look to the center for guidance, always trying to gauge what the central government intentions are. >> (speaking mandarin): >> man:

(all speaking mandarin) >> smith: after tiananmen, china moved on. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: under deng xiaoping, china's unwritten, informal social contract stipulated that if you stay away from politics, we, the part will make you rich. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: it's a deal many chinese accepted without protest. ♪ ♪ >> we shouldn't underestimate the amount of political control inside china. but at the same time, it's also important to recognize that over the past 40 years, the government has done a good job in raising living standard >> smith: ian johnson is a journalist with a long history of reporting on china. >> and if you think that tomorrow is gonna be a better day, that you've just bought a house, that your kid's gonna be able to go to college,

that you're going to be able to go abroad, to travel, all of these things that have never been possible before for the vast majority of chinese people, then you'll hold your nose, or say, "well, the party isn't doing such a bad job on balance," and you'll go with the flow. ♪ ♪ >> smith: by the mid-1990s, china's economy was growing at an historic pace. >> supporting china's entry into the wto represents the most significant opportunity... >> you know, especially after china's entry into the world trade organization, you know, china's economy just got another tremendous boost and more opportunities for individuals. >> smith: lingling wei, a reporter for "the wall street journal," grew up the daughter of loyal maoist parents. her maternal grandfather was part of mao's inner circle. she remembers how, under deng, china became more open to wesrn culture.

("sweet georgia brown" playing, crowd cheering and applauding) >> we knew that china's relationship with the united states was getting better. >> colonel sanders' kentucky fried chicken has just arrived in beijing. >> we were exposed to american pop culture. >> ready, boo-boo boy? >> when i was growing up, one of my favorite shows was this american tv series called "growing pains." i just loved it, you know, watching how kids could just talk back to their parents. >> i was just being friendly. what is it with you people? (audience laughing) >> i grew up with a lot of admiration for the united states. i, i really wanted to go there. i was very curious about the u.s. you know, not just me, a lot of my classmates, a lot of my friends, you know, thentire reform generation, you know, had that kind of mindset toward the united states. (traffic humming) >> smi: china was most open to western influence in the coastal provinces, where deng xiaoping lured

foreign companies to invest, offering them tax incentives, flexible labor contracts, and cheap real estate. one of the fastest-growing provinces was fujian, where, by 2000, xi jinping had become a provincial governor. he had earned a reputation for rooting out party corruption. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: beijing took notice, and in 2007, xi got his big break. a corruption scandal in shanghai led the old guard of the communist party to search for a new shanghai party chief. shanghai was the biggest and wealthiest city in china.

xi was brought in to address the fallout from a party secretary's theft of pension funds. >> the move to shanghai was a huge promotion, because the party chief of shanghai is always inducted in the 25 members of china's apex of power. he was picked because of his long experiences in coastal provinces, which were the most open, most develop. >> smith: in shanghai, xi distinguished himself by eschewing lavish party perks, such as a private chef, special doctors, luxury cars, and palatial housing. and after just seven months, he was brought to beijing, where he was catapulted onto the standing committee of the politburo. suddenly, xi jinping became one of china's nine top leaders. (all applauding) he was on his way.

at just 54, party leaders saw xi as pliable and cooperative. they didn't expect a strongman. in one of his first assignments as a committee member, xi was appointed to head the central party school in beijing, a post once held by chairman mao. it's where top party officials are trained, and for xi, it was an early indicator of the leader he aspired to be. >> (speaking mandarin) >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: cai xia taught at the central party school at the time. >> (speaking mandarin):

>> smith: but few people in the west were paying much attention. and inside china, the country was preparing to celebrate its newfound riches. that year, china was hosting the 2008 summer olympics. the person heading up the preparation committee for the games was xi jinping. >> (speaking mandarin): >> xi jinping actually was named the coordinator for the olympics. now, he had very little central government experience, and that was fairly tough, because he had to coordinate the ministry of public security,

ministry of defense... >> (speaking mandarin): >> the olympics, it was a means to test him in his probational period. >> smith: to see if he was material for the top job. >> exactly-- the beijing olympics was china's coming out party, and everything has to be perfect. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: no expense would be spared. at over $40 billion, the games were among the most expensive in history. (crowd cheering) >> 2008 was a spectacular olympic summer game. it was great. >> smith: professor chen jian li is a neurologist at peking university. we interviewed him while he was a visiting scholar at stanford.

you were in the stadium? >> yes. i would say that was a high point. (orchestra playing, crowd cheering) there was a true sense of joy. but it was not a nationalist joy. it went beyond that, honestly. (orchestra playing, crowd cheering) it was, i think, more like what can onlbe described by beethoven's ninth symphony, it was that good. (orchestra playing, crowd cheering) >> smith: xi jinping had passed the test. (band playing, crowd cheering) better yet, he was inheriting a country at its peak. >> the olympics were a major propaganda coup for the chinese communt party, to say, "look, we've arrived-- we're a world power right now." i, i remember... >> smith: between 1998 and 2005,

matthew pottinger worked as a reporter in china r reuters and "the wall street journal." he also served on the national security council during the first trump administration. pottinger sees the 2008 games as a key moment when the u.s.-china relationship shifted. >> they coincided with the global financial crisis, the first spark of which was lit in the united states. >> stunning news on wall street tonight. >> at one point, the market fell as if down a well. >> the debt crisis and economic chaos could have a dangerous ripple effect... >> so those two things juxtaposed together created an incredible sense of jubilation in this idea that china was slingshotting ahead of the united states. >> chinese leaders realize, "wow, "your system used to be one we were trying "to emulate, at least economically, but now, you know, you're no longer our teachers." there's this feeling

that "we're equal to the united states now." >> about that time, china had passed germany, passed u.k., and then passed japan. you know, of course, every year, it goes up and up and up to be the second-largest economy. >> this is an extraordinary period for america's economy. we've seen triple-digit swings in the stock market. major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse and some have failed. >> the collapse of lehman brothers triggered turmoil in markets around the globe. >> the economic crisis made it look to people like xi jinping that history was moving on, the u.s. was in decline, china was on the rise. (man talking in background, audience applauding) they could do just like the great powers had always done. "it's our way or the highway." and that was a very important moment

that changed the relationship between china and the rest of the world, particularly the united states. >> comrade xi jinping. ♪ ♪ (people talking in background, footsteps marching) >> the day had finally arrived. it was time to elect a president, the leader of the world's most populous nation. but there was no discernible tension, no suspense. the election of the chinese president had been decided months in advance. (people applauding) >> smith: by 2012, xi jinping had been able to impress upon the party's elite that he was the man to lead china into the future. he was elected general secretary of the chinese communist party, and, a few months later, he became president. >> (speaking mandarin):

>> (speaking mandarin) >> smith: xi tried to outwardly cultivate an image as a man of the people. his nickname, papa xi. >> xi and woman (speaking mandarin): >> boy and xi: >> when he came into office, he portrayed himself as a normal person, he launch a charm offense, you know? he went to a steamed bun restaurant, and he said he's not going to have traffic control for his car, like, for his motorcade. >> smith: initially, this charm offensive worked. many thought xi would be a moderate. (people laughing and applauding) >> the wishful thinking that existed, i think, was something that westerners delude themselves with about all chinese leaders. "is this the next gorbachev?" >> (speaking mandarin):

>> xi jinping is no reformer, but nobody saw the repressive, dictatorial, control-freak, insecure leader that he has become. none of us saw that. >> smith: a few months after coming to power, a secret memo surfaced called document number nine. >> document number nine is an important internal party document in which xi talks about different forms of subversion that might be taking place in china. it points to civil society groups or ngos, and it says these are dangerous subversive elements in china. >> it's stipulating a whole list of ideological restrictions, including the so-called universal values, which is a code word for western constitutional rule and rule of law.

>> smith: the document instructing party members to forswear western ideals like constitutional democracy, human rights, freedom of the press, and civil society. party members should stay true to the revolution. soon after, a 71-year-old journalist, gao yu, was arrested and sentenced to seven years in prison after allegedly leaking the document. xi was just getting started. >> the news four top officials removed for taking bribes was announced on state tv. >> smith: xi had famously fought corruption in shanghai, and now, as top leader, he launched a nationwide anti-corruption campaign. >> from top bureaucrats to low-levellerks, china, their nickname, tigers and flies. >> smith: corruption was a real problem, but the scope and scale of xi's campaign took many by surprise.

>> xi jinping began to purge. and people at the time, including chinese officials, said, "well, look, this is going to be a six-month thing. he's got to consolidate power." >> more than 80,000 communist party members have been investigated so far. >> that was 12 years ago. the purges are not only continuing, but they've deepened in many respects. they're, they're now encompassing not only xi's enemies, but he's actually also purging many of his loyalists. >> xi jinping has just sacked his foreign minister, just sacked his defense minister, he's sacked a whole lot of other people at the top of the military establishment. >> the former security czar has not been seen in public for more than a year. the investigation... >> those were handpicked people by him. people that he had appointed. the historian stephen kotkin said, "hitler used to kill his enemies and stalin killed his friends." xi, xi is purging both his friends and his enemies. (people applauding) and that is the mode by which he governs. (applause continues)

>> smith: as xi tightened his grip, he watched for other threats. (woman speaking on intercom) today, in china, there are some 600 million surveillance cameras, one for every two citizens, ableo track people's movements down to the minute. >> every street corner, there's facial recognition, there's digital recognition. there's the social credit system. >> smith: the social credit system is what? >> so the social credit system is the sort of highest aspiration of the chinese communist party, to have everything every human being does go into a computer system. and with a.i. and all sorts of other sophisticated programming, you can know exactly where a person is because he'll have bought something with a credit card or a digital payment system. his car will have gone down a highway. every kilometer,

there's a camera taking pictures of your license plate. they will know everything about everybody, real time. ♪ ♪ so this creates a kind of a techno-autocratic system that's unprecedented and with which we've had no experience. it makes george orwell, you know, look like something from the stone age. >> smith: there is also a designated ministry of public security tasked with monitoring the internet. >> "xi jinping came to power and created this agency to control the internet." we were all, like, "ha, ha, ha! "how can you control the internet? internet is so massive, so vast, and..." >> smith: good luck. >> yes! (laughs) and then, he did. he controlled the internet. >> smith: it's part of the great firewall, a combination of legislation and technology used to regulate and block huge swaths of the internet.

in china, there is no google or youtube or facebook. when a meme comparing xi to winnie the pooh went viral on chinese social media, xi jinping was not amused. censors banned any such comparisons. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: when cai xia published an op-ed calling for the protection of individual rights, she was purged from the party. she says she was already being monitored 24 hours a day. >> (speaking mandarin):

♪ ♪ >> there could be millions, tens of millions, or hundreds of millions who have negative thoughts about xi or the system. but it's very hard for them to mobilize to act together. any direct, more confrontational, organized political movement will be zapped. the fear is like, almost like a subliminal air that you, you breathe in. ♪ ♪ (women chanting) (chanting continues) >> smith: there has been significant resistance to xi's rule among large groups of ethnic minorities. the resistance today is concentrated in xinjiang,

home to 15 million uyghurs, kazakhs, and other muslim minorities, many of whom feel like they're not even part of china, which is primarily han. >> xinjiang becomes one of the great early challenges to xi's power. (crowd shouting) xinjiang, for years before xi took power i2012, had been a region where ethnic tensions had flared. (people shouting) the party had tried different forms of control and sometimes very repressive measures, but had often met resistance from different ethnic groups out there. in particular, the uyghur muslims who live in a belt of oasis towns mainly along southern xinjiang. (vehicle horns honking, pele talking in background) >> smith: xinjiang was first taken over by china in the 18th century, but twice it broke away.

beijing has for decades tried to suppress uyghur resistance to chinese rule. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: in the months after xi became president, china was rattled by a series of attacks the government said were carried out by uyghurs. (explosions roaring) >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: they intensified in the spring of 2014, when scores of people were killed at a railway station in southwest china by individuals wielding machetes and long knives. chinese officials blamed the attack on a group of uyghur separatists. >> (speaking mandarin): several weeks after the incident,

president xi traveled to xinjiang. as he wrapped up his visit, there was a suicide bombing and another knife attack at a train station in xinjiang's capital. >> (speaking mandarin): >> this was a trigger. xi decided, "that's it." you know, "we're not going to coddle these people. "we're not going to try to work it out. we're going to control." and i think this bespoke of his toolbox, which he had carried with him ever since he was a teenager, which is, you know, how do you fix things? control-- that's his main tool. (vehicle horns honk, people talking in background) >> smith: xi would return to beijing and enact what the party called a "people's war." the idea was to curb separatism and extremism. a chilling directive was sent out to local officials in xinjiang, instructing them how to separate families and began arresting uyghurs en masse.

the directive was clear: use the "organs of dictatorship," and show "absolutely no mercy." this drone footage appears to show uyghurs being rounded up. it's estimated that over a million have been detained since 2017. >> xi says that we must assimilate the uyghurs and other ethnic groups into the mainstream han culture. and what that means in his mind is, elements of islam have to be eradicated or severely weakened. (people talking in background) even, you know, more radical ideas that are taking root, but basic practices, such as not eating pork, fasting during ramadan, trying to make a pilgrimage to saudi arabia for the hajj. so very mainstream muslim practices must be pulled back

is what he's saying. the central government starts to put in place these internment camps across parts of xinjiang, where large groups of uyghur muslims, and sometimes kazakh muslims, are put into these camps, forced to live there, and the point seems to be to really eradicate knowledge that uyghur culture is built on. >> (speaking mandarin): >> woman: >> man: >> (reciting in mandarin): >> smith: the chinese government portrays the camps as a place for self-improvement, promoting peace and stability in xinjiang. >> (speaking mandarin): >> man: >> woman: >> (reciting in mandarin): >> man:

>> they want them to not speak uyghur, they want them to speak mandarin chinese, and families are separated. so it's really changing the entire foundation of the uyghur culture. >> smith: mihrigul tursun was detained at the airport as she returned to xinjiang from her adopted home in egypt. she was coming back to introduce her newborn triplets to her parents. mihrigul says they accused her of being a spy, and separated her from her children. >> i ask them, "where's my babies? "they are hungry. they are need to change diapers." the chinese police never answer me. but they ask my, my family contact information. where's my family? how, who was who? so i was writing. then one man coming to from my backside suddenly taped my mouth. and i cannot speaking. then they put my hand backside, handcuff,

and then put black hood on my head, then... >> smith: mihrigul was held for several months without her children. when she was reunited, there were only two. >> then they gave me to his dead body, like ice cream. like, you know, you take some ice from the outside? his body ice. >> smith: it was cold. >> yeah, cold-- total ice. he say, "sorry, he's dead. you can take him now, his body." so and then i said, "wake up! wake up!" and then i screamed. so that time is, the doctor say, "call the police." two police coming, say, "get out from here. "shut your mouth, don't scream. "don't say anything. just go out from this place." (sniffles) then they kick me out from hospital. ♪ ♪ >> smith: later, she was detained again. mihrigul remembers spending time in three different camps. >> didn't allow me sleep. then they shave my head, and they give me electric...

>> smith: electric shocks? >> yeah, electric shock. i witness nine people die with me, together in same jail. >> smith: mihrigul's account has been carried by multiple western news outlets, and, in 2018, she was invited to testify before the u.s. congress. >> (speaking uyghur): >> smith: in 2019, a chinese government-owned tv outlet accused her of lying. >> ...where mihrigul tursun claims one of her triplets died. a claim that a hospital adamantly denies. >> smith: they're saying it's all false. this is not true. you've seen these reports? >> yes, because they won't tell. they always lying. this is in, 100% true. >> both mihrigul's brother and mother say... >> smith: the state tv report included mihrigul's brother denouncing her. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: in fact, many other uyghur men and women

who have reported abuse have had family members testify against them. a uyghur human rights project investigation says the government is simply media-washing. meanwhile, the so-called re-education camps are still in operation. chinese officials have maintained that there has been no terrorism in xinjiang since 2016. >> xinjiang is a issue that needs to be studied very carefully. >> smith: dr. jia qingguo is a prominent chinese academic and political adviser tohe government who often speaks out on behalf of the chinese communist party. i interviewed him at a china conference in san diego. i mean, we had an attack on 9/11, but all muslims in the united states were not forced into re-education camps. would that have made sense in the united states, in your view? >> but you fought twwars against iraq

and also against afghanistan. how many people were killed? in xinjiang, china was launching a large-scale campaign against terrorists, okay? the chinese government decided that this is something they have to do. >> smith: they were taken from their homes, they were... >> taken from their homes, yeah. >> smith: ...placed in these camps. but all of those people were not terrorists. >> and they were not harmed. (stammering): in a physical way. >> smith: but families were ripped apart. >> uh.. >> smith: we talked to one woman whose child was taken from her... >> yeah. >> smith: ...when he was only a few months old, and never was returned. >> i don't know, maybe there are better ways of, of dealing with this issue. but then, in the process, i think some of the human rights are violated. that cannot be avoided. >> (speaking mandarin):

>> smith: an estimated 80,000 detainees have been forced to work in factories across china, some supplying american brands. these companies have denied using uyghur labor. but forced labor for other manufacturers continues. >> xi decided, as he did after the economic crisis, that china did not need to bow to any western demands. it's none of our business what he does in xinjiang. he has once again turned to control as the answer for a problem. (class reciting in mandarin) >> whole world know what xi jinping is doing. he's not a very strong, powerful country in this world. >> smith: china is a rich country now. >> china is rich country.

but he is very weak. he just believe, he think he's rich, his money, no. money cannot do everything. (tools whirring) >> smith: over the last 40 years, china's economic growth has been eclipsing that of the united states, growing at an average rate four times faster. china dominates global supply chains, and it holds nearly $1 trillion of u.s. debt. ♪ ♪ >> china is a peer country with the united states today if we use purchasing power parity, its economy is larger than the u.s. economy. and if anyone believes that they can stop china's steady rise as an economy, it's probably indulging in fantasy. >> one thing i have to do is economically take on china.

because china has been ripping us off for many years. somebody had to do it! i am the chosen one. somebody had to do it! so i'm taking on china. >> smith: in fact, donald trump's predecessors have employed measures to restrict china trade practices. >> they're taking our business, they're taking our jobs, they're making our product. >> smith: but in 2016, trump made china a major campaign issue. >> because we can't continue to allow china to rape our country. and that's what they're doing. it's the greatest theft in the history of the world. (band playing music, people applauding) >> smith: days before trump's inauguration in 2017, xi wanted to make sure the incoming president knew where he stood on trade. (audience applauding) he sent a warning from his podium at the world economic forum in davos. >> (speaking mandarin):

(crowd applauding) >> smith: less than three months later, xi would fly to mar-a-lago to test the waters. >> president trump's most important foreign meeting yet, greeting the leader of the country he's previously called our enemy. >> smith: behind the scenes, trp's advisers were advocating bold new measures. >> president trump understood that we had failed to compete with china, and i think because of his business background... >> smith: general h.r. mcmaster served as president trump's national security adviser. >>ne of the lines that president trump would use with xi jinping periodically is, he would say, "you know, i don't blame you, i blame us." so, i think that that summit communicated to kind of a shocked xi jinping that the trump administration was determined to compete,

and to, and to no longer pursue this kind of flawed strategy of cooperation and engagement. >> i don't blame china, i blame our leadership. they should have never let that happen. >> i wrote a lengthy, maybe a 12-page provisional strategy, in a sense, but it really started out by saying how many of our assumptions had been wrong. >> smith: matthew pottinger was one of the architects of trump's china strategy. >> one of the things that i've learned over the years, first as a reporter and, and later working on national security on china, is that the more comfortable china gets, the more comfortable the, the chinese communist party leaders are, the more aggressive and the grander their ambitions. and i, and i actually think that a more confrontational approach, something more reminiscent of key periods of the cold war, is what we should be looking to right now as examples. you always want the enemy to be worried about what you might do. ♪ ♪ >> smith: the first line item on the agenda was to clamp dow on china's effort to steal

intellectual property from western corporations. >> c.e.os. of our most successful and our largest companies would come to me and say, "let me tell you how our company is being victimized by chinese communist party economic aggression." and they would lay out the story of, you know, forced transfer of intellectual property... >> smith: in other words, you can't do business here unless you give us your secrets. >> exactly, and then also, the false promises of access to the chinese market. as soon as they rip off your intellectual property, and pick a state champion to produce those goods at an artificially low price because of the subsidies, they close you out of their domestic market, and then guess what? they dump that hardware and equipment on the international market and drive you out of business internationally. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: the chinese government repeatedly denied stealing and drive you out of business internationally. intellectual property, and xi jinping ordered his diplomats to tap their "fighting spirit," adopting trump's more aggressive

style of communicating. >> (speaking mandarin): >> they were unleashing what they themselves called "wolf warrior" diplomacy. and it was pretty objectionable, frankly. >> smith: john bolton was another national security adviser under president trump. >> but in a way, i think it was beneficial that they did that. they took the mask off. there's no more concealing what their ambitions were. >> 60,000 factories in our country closed, shuttered, gone. six million jobs, at least, gone. >> smith: trump was exaggerating, but less than a year after welcoming xi to america, trump was ready to take off his own mask. >> so we've spoken to china, and we're in the midst of aery large negotiation. we'll see where it takes us. but in the meantime, we're sending a section 301 action.

i'll be signing it right here right now. >> smith: he was firing the first shot in a war that had been ilding and would last for years to come. >> this is number one, but this is the first of many. >> trade war worries igniting after the president signed this order to slap tough tariffs on china... >> smith: he started with a ten percent tariff on chinese aluminum, 30% on solar panels and electric vehicles, 25% on steel and nearly everything else made in china. >> not surprisingly, china's not happy, already threatening retaliation. >> (speaking mandarin): >> what china did was move its exports to other countries and move its imports from other countries, as well. so it shifted the purchase of soybeans, for example, from the u.s. to brazil.

so that wasn't a useful policy. >> president trump has just slapped tariffs on another $200 billion of chinese exports... >> ...igniting the biggest trade war in economic history. >> smith: trump's trade war would consume the remainder of his presidency. >> china is now punching back with an equal amount of tariffs on american exports. >> smith: after several tit-for-tat tariff increases, the trade war, which continued into the biden administration, actually increased the trade deficit. >> the trade deficit has skyrocketed to $891 billion, the highest ever. >> smith: cost increases also led to a decline in u.s. manufacturing jobs. >> ...destroyed the industry in the united states... >> smith: intellectual property theft continued, and the costs imposed by tariffs were simply passed along to consumers of imported products. and now trump has promised to impose even higher tariffs once he is back in office.

tariffs were put in place because china's economic policy was hurting u.s. factories and workers. >> that's a belief on the part of some people in the u.s., especially by the people of the trump administration. >> smith: the biden administration has even extended those. >> but if you talk in private, many don't agree with such kind of policy. why? because it hurts the s. economy. >> smith: there is the argument... >> you have the high inflation. where do you get it? in part because of those tariffs. ♪ ♪ >> our top story, for the very first time since taking office, all seven standing committee members have appeared together at a cultural event led by xi jinping. >> smith: beyond his crackdowns and trade wars with the u.s., xi has had greater ambitions for china's place in the world, which he revealed even before he assumed the presidency.

it was just after he was made general secretary of the party back in 2012. >> seven party leaders took a tour of the grand exhibition "road to revival." >> remember, when xi jinping came into office, the first thing he did was, he took the politburo across tiananmen square to the national museum, where there was a show on the humiliations of china's past. >> ...the party leaders reviewed the different historical stages the nation has gone through. >> smith: six leaders had come and gone since mao zedong. but at the exhibition, xi made clear his allegiance was to mao. >> there were pictures of deng xiaoping and stuff, all of which he by and large ignored, and... >> smith: susan shirk served as an assistant deputy secretary of state during the clinton administration. >> it's like he wants to eliminate the deng legacy, which, of course, was to institutionalize

a system of governance in china that would be more responsive as society modernized. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: in the great hallway, he delivered a speech and laid out his vision, now known as the china dream. >> (speaking mandarin): (applauding) >> and what he was saying to everybody was, his greatest calling was to restore china to a position of international greatness. now, that didn't just mean trading greatness. it meant a position of political greatness, military greatness, to re-flesh out the old imperial empire

that had occupied many peripheral territories, including tibet, xinjiang, manchuria, mongolia, taiwan. xi wants to restore china to its grand estate. so, this actually came to be the roadmap for the china dream. (ship horn blows) >> smith: a key strategy for increasing china's might is expanding chinese control of the south china sea. during his presidency, xi ramped up these efforts. >> the south china sea is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. japan and korea completely depend on it. so, it's no small matter who controls this waterway. and china, in effect, is saying, "everything from the straits of malacca, up around taiwan, to the chinese coast is ours."

>> these are waters through which one-third of the world's maritime trade flows. what china did to actually effect that claim was to commit a lot of ecological destruction, to build up these, these man-made islands. >> smith: the same year that xi became predent, china began building artificial islands on top of seven coral reefs in the south china sea. the manmade islands covered almost five square miles. >> and so they dredge coral reefs to build up islands, and then claim that these islands, you know, were just for research purposes, environmental research purposes. and then, of course, landing strips appeared, and then fortifications appeared, and then missile batteries appeared. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: xi has repeatedly pledged he would not militarize the islands he had built. >> (speaking mandarin):

>> smith: but after many assurances, surveillance shows there are not only runways for fighter jets, but also deep-water harbors able to dock warships. (helicopter blades whirring, man speaking on radio) >> the chinese communist party has a really long record of just lying to our face. (chuckling): and you can't take anything they say at face value. w, what they had done is promised a lot, and not only delivered nothing, but actually intensified their aggressive actions. >> smith: in addition to the chinese coast guard and navy, large fleets of civilian vessels have been sent by beijing to patrol the waters of the south china sea. frequently, they surround and harass vessels from other countries like the philippines, ramming them and blasting them with high-velocity water cannons. >> the water cannon attack lasted for almost an hour, with the force of the water causing damage to the radiant canopy of the philippine vessel, the latest incident of chinese aggression

expected to further escalate tensions... >> this is happening very far away from china in the waters near the philippines. there are warnings from washington saying, "we are a treaty ally of the philippines. "we have a mutual defense clause "in our treaty. you need to back off from this." but china's completely ignoring that for now. >> don't move! don't move! >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: xi jinping has also taken aim at hong kong. >> (speaking mandarin): (applauding ancheering) >> smith: a major port on the south china sea, one of the busiest in the world, hong kong has become the financial capital of asia.

>> hong kong was the gateway of a lot of businesses entering the chinese market, and we were that international financial hub essentially connecting the chinese market with the western market. and a lot of that legacy still stays today. >> smith: anna kwok grew up in hong kong. she was born in 1997, the year that britain returned hong kong back to china. what was the promise that was made to you? >> the promise was high autonomy in hong kong, that we would have what is essentially called "one country, two systems." meaning that even though we are supposedly part of china, hong kong would have its own system, its own governance, its own autonomy, and the people of hong kong has their own way of living. >> britain is proud of the rights and freedoms which hong kong people enjoy. >> smith: in fact, china promised that "one country, two systems" would remain in place for half a century. >> in xi jinping's eyes,

you can't be a obedient citizen, you can't be an obedient people, when you're living under a different system, a different... >> smith: joey siu was also raised in hong kong. she came of age during the so-called umbrella revolution of 2014. >> in the streets, a sea of umbrellas, the symbol of a mass demonstration underway in hong kong. >> protesters, mostly students, are demanding full democracy. >> smith: calling for free and fair elections, demonstrators used umbrellas to shield themselves from pepper spray and surveillance cameras. >> ...on a city fighting to maintain its freedom... >> smith: for joey siu, protesting was part of being a hong konger. >> i could see, you know, demonstrations, people fighting fodifferent rights and freedoms inside of hong kong. so, growing up, what it meant by the promise to the people of hong kong to me was that freedom of expression, that freedom to assemble, to say whatever you want, to be free to criticize the government

or to support the government. ♪ ♪ >> smith: but in 2019, things began to shift. local hong kong officials began to cut back on civil liberties. senior party officials endorsed the move. >> fight for freedom! >> (responding): stand with hong kong! >> leader and protesters (speaking cantonese): >> smith: it began with legislation allowing authorities in beijing to extradite hong kongers to china. (crowd chanting) around a million poured out onto the streets, defying president xi. (man shouting, crowd chanting in response) it was a stunning display of public anger with his presidency. >> (speaking cantonese): (people clamoring) ♪ ♪ >> i think that 2019 really was a nail in the coffin. i think xi jinping...

>> smith: anna kwok became a leading underground activist that year, running operations from outside hong kong. >> even though hong kongers were all out on the streets, millions of them, even though, you know, the entirenternational community showed support, xi was not afraid to say, "no, "we're not giving you the freedoms and rights you deserve." and he was not afraid, you know, to employ police violence against us. (people clamoring, objects crashing) the government is just not worried about optics at all. >> (speaking cantonese): >> they don't care. >> (speaking cantonese): >> (shouting) (sirens blaring) >> now, xi jinping was very astute. some thought that he might march soldiers over the border and take hong kong when it had all those demonstrations. he didn't do that. he waited. and then he passed a national security law,

and they locked everybody up slowly and quietly. >> smith: xi jinping's national security law gave china a broad legal framework to deal with the protesters. >> (shouting) >> smith: the law criminalized collusion and subversion and secession. joey siu was on the frontline, facing tear gas and risking arrest on a daily basis. >> i believe it is almost a consensus among hong kongers that eventually, the chinese communist regime would try to take over hong kong and turn hong kong into just another mainland city. but i think what surprised, you know, hong kongers and international society was how fast that was being done. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: throughout his presidency, xi has repeatedly made assurances that he is committed to hong kong's autonomy.

>> (speaking mandarin): (explosion pops, echoes) (people shouting) >> in 2020, beijing subverted the 50-year guarantee it had made to honor hong kong's "high degree of autonomy." it completely kneecapped that agreement. (people shouting) >> hong kong is, i think, an excellent case study in how china lies. they abandoned the "one country, two system" policy. they began to suppress economic and political freedom. and they're now obliterating the difference between hong kong and mainland china. it's one of the great tragedies of our time, really, to see hong kong snuffed out like this.

>> since the implementation of the national security law, a 17-year-old student now faces between ten years to life in prison. >> smith: since the 2019 protests, joey siu is now a dissident operating from america, as is anna kwok. in 2023, hong kong police held press conferences presenting bounties for the women's arrests. you have family that's still in hong kong. >> yes. >> smith: what has been their fate? >> one month after the bounty was released on me, in last august, they were taken into questioning by the police. >> smith: what did they ask? >> i have no idea, because i'm not in touch with them, and... >> smith: you're not in touch with your family? >> no, and that is for their best interest. oh, my god, i'm gonna cry, yeah. >> smith: you can't call your mom. >> no. >> smith: or your siblings. >> no.

and i think that's the toughest strategy the regime has on people. it's about breaking up the trust and breaking up the human connections you have with each other. (swallows) so that yocannot have that power and that connection you need to keep fighting the fight, because at the end of the day, it's about fighting for people you lov right? and once that connection is gone, you lose that motivation. so i think that's what the chinese communist party has been doing for decades, actually, to various communities that have been trying to fight for freedom. (people exclaiming, bells ringing) >> happy new year! >> happy new year! (music playing) >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: on new year's eve 2023, president xi addressed the nation.

>> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: while he cebrated china's many accomplishments that year, he also made a notable reference to taiwan. >> (speaking mandarin): >> smith: his remarks on taiwan were more pointed than in previous years. they came during taiwan's presidential election season, a recurring reminder to xi that taiwan is not in step with china. (vehicle horns honking) today, taiwan is a vibrant democracy, and its capital, taipei, is one of the wealthiest cities in asia. but xi has been clear that a central goal of his china dream is to reunify taiwan with mainland china. it's a position that the party has held

ever since they seized power in 1949. >> generalissimo chiang kai-shek, now on the last stronghold of nationalist china... >> smith: it was in that year that america's ally chiang kai-shek fledo the island and set up a separate government. for beijing, this was unacceptable, and the problem has festered . >> the taiwan issue is a direct result of an unfinished civil war. very simple. there is only one china, taiwan being part of china. >> smith: the problem today is that the people of taiwan have made it pretty clear with their elections that they do not want to reunify with mainland china. >> the future of taiwan is not to be decided by the local residents in taiwan themselves. >> smith: why shouldn't these people have the right to self-determination? only by the people on both sides evof the taiwan strait,ded

including the 23 million people in taiwan, as well as the 1.4 billion people on china's mainland. >> smith: taiwan was on the agenda when richard nixon and henry kissinger made their groundbreaking trip to china in 1972. >> history in the making. the first american president to set foot on chinese soil. >> smith: but they were here primarily to explore how china could become an ally against america's archenemy, the soviet union. >> kissinger asked me to go along to the meeting. i had been a good note taker. this relieved him of having to take notes. >> smith: a young aide to kissinger, winston lord, was on the trip. he found that mao was willing to engage on taiwan. but mao was also wary of soviet power and seemed more interested in exploring a u.s. alliance. taiwan got pushed down the list. >> during the summit,

mao would outline the basic chinese position. he said that the taiwan issue could take 100 years. that's another way of saying, "taiwan's important to us, we'll maintain our principle, but we don't have to solve it for a while." >> smith: after a week of negotiations, the status of taiwan remained unresolved. nixon referred to taiwan as "an irritant." his private handwritten notes reveal nixon was prepared to yield. "our poly is one china," he wrote. "taiwan is part of china. won't support taiwan independence." it became known as the one china policy. nixon conceded that taiwan was officially part of china. at the same time, nixon and kissinger defended taiwan's right to autonomy. it was a compromise. >> on the specific issue of taiwan, of course we had to make a gesture,

and we came up with a one china formulation that's quite elastic and elusive, and has served until this day. both parties, over, you know, seven or eight or nine presidents, have used this formula both to maintain through ambiguity our relations with china on a sensitive issue, but meanwhile helping to protect taiwan's aunomy. >> smith: the arrangement has remained relatively stable. 1979, president carter attempted to strengthen america's commitment to taiwan, signing into law the taiwan relations act, which stipulated that the u.s. promised to maintain the capacity to aid taiwan. >> ...citizens of taiwan will still be secure. >> smith: but what exactly does that mean? the licy is deliberately, strategically ambiguous. on occasion, there have been incidents. close calls in the air: u.s. and china planes collided over taiwan in 2001,

with both countries blaming each other. >> this accident has the potential of undermining our hopes for a fruitful and productive relationship between our two countries. (audience applauding, music playing) >> smith: but the extent of today's saber-rattling over taiwan is new. >> (translated): we will continue to make utmost efforts for peaceful reunification, but never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option to taking all measures necessary. complete reunification must be realized, and it can, without a doubt, be realized. (applauding) >> i think taiwan is the next great danger in the world. even in this era where the united nations proclaims, you know, self-determination is a high principle, if scotland wants to leave the u.k. or quebec wants to leave canada.

but china has a more old-fashioned view of sovereignty. "we claim it. "it's ours. "get off our ranch. don't get in the way." >> smith: china's military drills over taiwan airspace are a regular reminder of the possibility of a real war. in early 2023, a memo from u.s. air force general mike minihan to his subordinates circulated online that flatly gave a date for when xi would invade. "i hope i am wrong," it read. "my gut tells me we will fight in 2025." "my gut tells me we will fight china in 2025"? you reacted negatively to that-- you think... >> yeah, well, i mean, so first of all, anybody who says they know the date that xi jinping's gonna invade taiwan doesn't know what they're talking about, 'cause... >> smith: '25... >> ...xi jinping

doesn't know the date. >> smith: right, but... colin kahl is a former national security adviser to vice president biden and a former under secretary for policy at the pentagon. >> it's not something you just make up. >> smith: while he disputes the 2025 date, kahl and other u.s. military analysts, as well as the c.i.a., are wary of xi's near-term intentions. xi has made some statements about the urgency and... >> he has, and the date that most analysts point to is 2027. that is the date that xi jinping has given his military to have the ability to do it. now, the ability doesn't mean they'll actually, actually manifest that ability. like, giving them the homework assignment doesn't mean they'll actually complete it. (people talking in background) >> smith: but taiwan's military doesn't want to tempt fate. >> we have several scenarios that we have imagined the enemy will take, and we have plans to weaken those invading force or even take them down. >> smith: in july 2023, i traveled here to watch taiwan's military

rehearsing how to repel a possible chinese invasion. so this is one of the beaches where you expect the p.l.a. a possible to...se invasion. >> yes, correct, we expect this, we expect this place to be as you can see, we're basically higright here, and, uh,l.a. this is where taipei is sitting east, and, uh, that would bad for us. >> smith: so you want xi jinping to see what you're doing. >> yes. (machine guns firing) (speaking taiwanese mandarin): >> smith: this beach is one of 14 landing sites that the taiwanese military has identified as potentially vulnerable to a chinese amphibious and air assault. (guns firing) >> the taiwan strait is difficult to cross it: 20-feet tide, three-mile mudflat, really only conducive

for a crossing three or four months out of the year. >> smith: i spoke to admiral sam paparo, commander of all u.s. forces in the indo-pacific, about the feasibility of a successful chinese takeover. >> it is difficult terrain to get to population centers. >> smith: it's mountainous. >> mountainous and canalizing terrain, as we call it, meaning very few passes that could be easily closed. >> (speaking taiwanese mandarin): >> smith: is it likely that we're gonna go to war over taiwan? >> the likelihood is low, but the consequence is so very high that i owe you every bit of urgency that i can. the effect of some war spiraling out of control

would dwarf the second world war. so we seek to uphold the status quo. we seek to deter conflict. xi jinping believes that the unification of taiwan is existential to the legitimacy of the chinese communist party's rule of china. >> smith: they've gotten along for 70-plus years without reunification. so, what makes this existential? >> i don't know-- i don't... i hope he grants you an interview and tells you. >> smith: admiral paparo says that, in his view, xi jinping and china see taiwan as an existential issue. that it must be unified-- why? >> you don't have the right to separate the land from your motherland, okay?

just like in the u.s., you don't automatically have the right. you need to go through procedures, right? like texas, if they want to get independent, you cannot just have a plebiscite in texas. you need to get other states to approve, okay? this is by the constitution, okay? taiwan is part of china. taiwan has never been separated. (vehicle horns honking in distance) >> smith: more than ever, a successful chinese takeover of taiwan threatens global stability. >> if china takes taiwan, you're talking about an island that is responsible for 70% of all the semiconductors in the world. and 90% of the highest-end chips that power the most advanced technologies that all of us have in our pockets with our iphones and our laptops. >> the world needs this technology. europe needs it, japan, we all need it.

and nobody else does it the way taiwan does. >> smith: china also depends on taiwanese chips. a war that destroys taiwan's chip industry may give xi pause. (man speaking russian on radio) so does the war in ukraine. (man speaking russian on radio) in 2022, when putin invaded, president xi took notice. >> ukrai is marking an anniversary of infamy. two years since vladimir putin launched his war... >> i think xi is watching ukraine incredibly cloly, because the parallels with taiwan, although not complete, are nonetheless haunting. and ukraine could be the best deterrent against xi doing anything in regard to taiwan. >> people thought that that invasion was going to last several weeks, that russia would have its way. but the ukrainians have fought valiantly, they continue to fight. >> i don't think xi jinping is happy about the war in ukraine. without question, he took notice

of how good u.s. intelligence was on russia. and he has to wonder, "well, gosh, if they know this about russia, what do they know about me?" so if he's counting on surprise vis-à-vis taiwan or the south china sea, i think he's got to calculate the odds of him pulling off a strategic surprise are less than they were before because of the quality of u.s. intelligence. (audience cheering and applauding) >> smith: xi has denied that he is preparing to invade taiwan any time soon. but every few years, he orders the military to tiananmen square for a display of china's readiness and might. (audience cheering and applauding) >> one of the things that has been very consistent about xi is his alignment of his identity with the chinese military. i'm in the crowd across from him, and... >> smith: ed wong witnessed several of these spectacles. >> it feels very much like this imperial event, where the leader of this great nation, this great power,

is surrounding himself with people who come to pay tribute to him and to pay tribute to china as a military power. (cannons fire) ♪ ♪ (crowd cheering) and he goes out in a car, standing, you know, out of the sunroof as it drives up and down these rows of troops. >> (speaking mandarin): >> soldiers: >> we see things like intercontinental ballistic missiles on flatbeds. and this is all a signal of china's military strength. >> (speaking mandarin): >> soldiers: >> smith: xi's rapid buildup of china's military capacity has prompted the u.s. to send more weapons to taiwan. (soldiers chanting in mandarin) given the stakes, president biden has been consistent and straightforward. >> to be clear, sir,

u.s. forces, u.s. men and women, would defend taiwan in the event of a chinese invasion. >> yes. (man yelling in mandarin) (cannon fires) >> president biden has said, unambiguously, four times, "the united states shall defend taiwan." no american president has ever said that, and no american president has that responsibility. the taiwan relations act says nothing about the united states defending taiwan. it simply says that, should coercive measures be used by mainland china against taiwan, it will be a matter of "grave concern to the united states." >> smith: now the question is, what will the incoming trump administration do? you've worked for donald trump. if china encroaches further on taiwan, will donald trump, who preaches "america first," go to war to defend taiwan?

>> you know, i'm not sure. and the fact that i'm not sure may not be a bad thing, because as long as it remains ambiguous, "hey, i'm not gonna do anything on taiwan." and i think it's also important for us not to make promises that we y be, not be able to, to fulfill, uh, if congress doesn't authorize military action. ♪ ♪ >> i don't believe that we should fight, uh, unless taiwan becomes independent. but taiwan is not separated from china. why should china use force, okay? if it's a domestic issue, then we can, we can do it, uh, in a peaceful way. (people talking in background) >> smith: taking stock of xi, his ambitions, his deceptions, his human rights abuses, and his threats against taiwan, i come to wonder what u.s. policy should be.

to date, little has been done to effectively stop china's moves in the south china sea, or in hong kong, or to de-escalate the situation in taiwan. >> i think engagement was right to try. and it was a great tribute to american diplomacy under nine presidential administrations, with the perhaps somewhat naive hope that china might not turn into a jeffersonian democracy, but might become less hostile. that was a od diplomatic effort. did it succeed? not yet. and engagement has now ended. now, can we start it up again? i believe that under xi jinping, it's probably impossible. (sirens blaring in distance)

>> for decades, the growth of china's economy was described as a miracle, fueling the rise of a new and massive middle class. but these are less confident days for most of china. >> smith: despite xi jinping's grip on power, his china is not invincible. in recent years, the economy has faltered. growth has slowed. a housing boom has morphed into a housing glut, with tens of millions of vacant units littering the country. (people talking in background) the work force is also aging. but as china's youth attend job fairs, they face a staggering unemployment rate, estimated to be as high as 25%. foreign investment isleeing the country. >> the chinese economy is headed down for much more of a slowdown than we have today. >> it's heartbreaking whenever i talk to my friends back in china. you know, the sense of hopelessness is something i never felt before.

people were just very worried about the direction the country is going. >> ...china's economy having a lackluster month... >> i think xi jinping has taken the economy for granted for most of the past ten years. he sort of figured that it didn't matter as much as ideology, as controlling the way people think and clamping down on dissent. (protesters chanting in mandarin) >> smith: when covid hit china, xi's lockdown policy drew huge protests, becoming the largest anti-government demonstrations since tiananmen square. >> (speaking mandarin): >> (repeating): >> citizens, millions of them, yearning to escape almost three years of intermittent lockdowns. >> the lockdown became a, a kind of lockjaw. and it's no secret, if you talk to people in chinese cities who were locked down, what a, what a nightmare that was. >> in the central city of wuhan, they break down the fence

that kept them quarantined. (people shouting) >> but it also was a kind of a perfect metaphor for the way a leninist system does things: control. (protesters shouting, vehicle horns honking) >> smith: because the government forbade overt messaging, protesters began holding up blank eces of paper as symbols of china's strict censorship. >> the white paper movement is spreading. first, it was all about opposition to china's strict zero-covid policy. but in recent days, the message has morphed, touching the rawest of political nerves. >> freedom! >> (speaking mandarin): >> this white papemovement was very exciting time. i heard these young people shouting, you know, "end ccp." >> (chanting in mandarin): >> and it's the first time that public protest forced ccp into changing its policy. >> (chanting in call and response):

>> but many of the protesters paid huge prices, and they were harassed, and they were locked up. because still, for many chinese, xi jinping is a name you cannot say. you cannot speak out. >> (chanting in mandarin): >> the zero-covid policy woke up many chinese. >> (chanting in mandarin): >> i think e white paper protests suggested exactly the degree to which these forces, dissenting forces, are latent, sort of beneath the surface of things. >> (shouting in mandarin): (crowd repeating): >> having watched china for so many decades, these forces are there, and they keep coming up again and again and again. (people shouting) and they actually grow,

and, and multiply under repression. (people shouting) but right now, china has effected a kind of a techno-autocracy that makes it more difficult than ever to have these kinds of manifestations, 'cause the cost is so high. ♪ ♪ >> smith: today, xi is trying to find a way forward that balances control with the need to get china's economy moving again. >> xi jinping thought that he could have it both ways, clamp down and still have economic growth. but the recipe for success, that you had to unshackle society in order for things to move forward, has now been abandoned. if china continues their policies,

which i think they will, you're gonna have longer-term slower growth. that'll lead to more tensions at home. so i think we're in for a rockier time. (audience applauding) >> even though xfeels that engagement with the outside world might be necessary to jumpstart the economy again, i think at the current moment, he has made the other choice. he has chosen to go down the route of consolidating power, the route of nationalism. >> smith: so, he's taking the darker path. >> for now, he's taking the darker path. ♪ ♪

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