captions by: caption colorado, llc (800) 775-7838 e- mail: comments@captioncolorado.com from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the vogeico, committed to providing service to its auto insurance customers for over 70 years. more information on auto insurance at geico.com or 1-800-947-auto any time of the day or night. if. for such a small if i live to a hundred. if social security isn't enough.

if my heart gets broken. if she says yes. we believe if should never hold you back. if should be managed with a plan that builds on what you already have. together we can create a personal safety net, a launching pad, for all those brilliant ifs in the middle of life. you can call on our expertise and get guarantees for the if in life. after all, we're metlife. life. one. the r-word. realignment? >> i now pass this gavel and the sacred trust that goes with it to the new speaker. god bless you, speaker boehner. [ cheers and applause ] >> as speaker, i feel part of my job is to help each of you do your job well regardless of your political party. hard work and tough decisions will be required of the 112th

congress. >> reporter: eight weeks ago, november 2nd, 2010, the republican party gained 63 seats in the u.s. house of representatives. before the election, the count in the house was democrats 256, republicans 179. after the election, the count in the house was 242 republicans, 193 democrats. november 2 was a wave election, a tidal wave, in fact, that gave the republicans and the house of representatives their largest majority in 62 years, dating back to 1948 when democrat harry truman defeated republican thomas dewey for president. all in all, the election was a major course change for congress and maybe even more. some say it was a political realignment, a massive change of political direction in the united states that will have

prolonged staying power, even generational. a long, dominant period for republicans and a long, recessive period for democrats. realignment. at least three factors substantiate that realignment analysis. one, democrats poll low. self-identified democrats today are at their lowest they've been in two decades, since 1989. today, democrats make up less than one-third of the population, 31%. two, independents flee the democratic party. independents vote republican. over the last two years, democratic voting by independents has sunk by 12 points. three, 26 out of 50 state let chutes are republican. 29 governors out of 50 are republican. most give republicans the power to influence, redraw and control state and federal

districts to produce republican republican power. question that's the argument for re alignment. but wouldn't it be a political miscalculation for the republicans to believe that a real realignment has occurred. >> certainly would, john. we've had three straight repudiating elections. republicans were repudiated in 2006, their president was defeated as it were in 208. now -- 2008. now the democrats were repudiated in 2010. gig government is unpopular. it's too costly, people want to cut back on it. so the liberal hour is over and that's good for the republicans in the near term. in the longer term, demography is destiny, john. 90% of the republican party votes is based on white votes.

they are down to 75%. they are 65% of the population. they are diminishing toward 50% at mid-century. in the longer term, the republican party has a deep demographic crisis because the minorities are growing in number and they vote between 60 and 90% democratic in every presidential election. >> what do you think about it, eleanor? >> the current republican majority is there because the electorate in 2010 was smaller, whiter, and older than the electorate that voted in 2008. i agree with pat that the republicans are in the wrong side of the demographic divide. they don't do well with young people and don't do well with african-americans and don't do well with hispanics. some of their issues, rhetoric about immigration and pursuit of trying to get away with to abolish birth right citizenship all falls on the ears of hispanic people telling them that that party is not welcoming to them. i think the republicans are

having a wonderful moment enjoying their majority in the house and they likely take the senate in two years, but if they don't figure out how to govern in a way that reaches beyond their base, they are gonna get slapped back just as quickly as they rose to power. >> what about the independents? self-described independents are now 38% of the election compared to 31% of the democrats and 29% who are republicans, according to an aggregate of 21 separate usa today. and what about the independents? >> independents as a voting block are the decisive voting block for any election, presidential all the way down through your local election. so it's incumbent on any presidential candidate or political party to go for that block of voters. what we saw in 2008 is that independent voters went in huge margins for barack obama largely because of bush fatigue

and because the economy had already teetered off the cliff by the time the election occurred. what we saw last november in 2010 was a hemorrhaging away from the democratic party of that crucial independent voting block. what's so interesting what you were mentioning about a realignment is that these changes in the political cycles now are moving at a much more rapid and accelerated pace. so democrats controlled congress for decades until 1994. the gop took it over in '94. they only controlled it for 12 years before the democrats took over after the '06 election. democrats only controlled it for four years. so you have this much more rapid turnover. i would also add to this, though that we are still a center right country. even though pat is right that the republican party has some built-in challenges demographically, the message of the republican party if they can stick to it about limited government, fiscal responsibility and free market, those are the messages that resonate with the majority of american people, and they can

continue to win national elections if they stick to it and don't cave. >> julie, how do you see this? >> a wave of revision against government and against politicians in general, not just an american phenomena. how on earth do you get young people to actually believe in politicians to believe something positive can be done? it's one thing have a negative vision in the republican party that has been campaigning being quite negative. getting the population to believe in something positive is going to be difficult. >> is it cultural? >> i think it's cultural. >> do you think there's something about group adhesion or group involvement that is politically incorrect? we don't gripe anymore so the very idea of a -- we don't group anymore, so the very idea of did shall. >> i think it's instant gratification.

the new generation coming up, part of the problem is politicians have been pandering to that from debt to joblessness and remaking government. >> so now it's a matter of trust? they don't trust politicians? >> talking about the time line -- >> as a class? do you see that in london? >> yes. looking for instant solutions at all times. >> i mean in the existing government and relatively new. >> surprisingly, the new government in london has not merely pulling and showing. >> there is a contempt for how government operates. it's because the ordinary people see it as government just winning out and they are b left out. they are not rebelling against health care, social security, they want their benefits from the government so all this rhetoric about big government and the deficits and all that, it's nice rhetoric, but to figure out how to accomplish those goals and those campaign

promises is gonna be a civil war within the republican party. >> did you hear that? a civil war in the republican party. are you ready for that? >> the republican party is fairly united. john there is a crisis of democracy going on right now quite frankly. i don't think politics can solve all of these problems. you take the whole white american community. the masses of it have never been morale yen natured. they were asked in 2009 what institution do you trust? they said none. this is the independents. they move back and forth and back and forth. [ all talking at once ] >> is everybody neglecting the cost of the financial crisis we are still in? >> why do you single out white people? people across the board -- >> they moved from both to the republicans. >> if this were a period of -- >> maybe they'll move right back. >> would we be saying this if there were a period of prosperity. >> i think there is a

tremendous amount of alien nation. >> exit question,this republican realignment or is it partisan dealignment? >> i think it's neither. i think there's a sense of this, john. people have moved to they don't trust either party, they move from one to the other. >> that's realigning. >> the republicans control one house so it's way too early to pro announce any triumph to the republicans. they've got a lot to prove to show that they can incorporate the tea party within their ranks. >> and the republicans acknowledge that. they understand that the 2010 vote was not a great embrace of the republican party. it was a wholesale rejection of the big government bothism of the last two years. the question for them is are they going to be able to stick to their guns. over 80 came to the house of representatives. i have the cautious hope, john. if they can stick to their

guns. >> is that dealignment? >> yes. i am too cautious to say this is a republican realignment. it is not that. >> you have a bunch of voters looking for a issue two, white house shakeout. so who's coming, who's ma chair council of ma chair of economic gone. austin ghoulsby takes over. chief of the all of budget gone, replacement, budget budge david oxle rod gone, jacob lieu david oxle rod gonejacob the architect of obama's 2008 presidential campaign. the architect secretary going. replacement yet to come. larry summers chief econ advisor gone, replacement yet advisor gone, to to come. paul james l. joneral james l.

security advisor gone. replacement, security nelan. of course rahm emanuel white house chief of staff is running for mayor of chicago and the election is six weeks from now. william daley was appointed white house chief of staff by president obama this week. >> mr. president, proving your strength, your leadership, your vision during a most difficult time for our nation and for the world. i am pleased to answer your call. >> on friday, the president announced that jean sperling will be the new director of the national economic council replacing larry summers. sperling held the same job under bill clinton. question, is this high-volume staff turnover typical for a presidency not yet two years old, eleanor? >> this is not very high volume turnover. in fact, most of these people are just changing seats.

the only outsider really is bill daley, and he's a chicagoan. so there is a cultural affinity. i think these moves are good. i first met gene sperling in the '92 clinton campaign. he used to sleep in his clothes with the lights 0p and alarm clock next to his bed and one across the room. he was only getting two or three hours of sleep a night. he is a real workaholic, a real straight shooting guy and helped craft the tax compromise before the holidays. apparently that's what won him over in obama's eyes. this president is resigning his -- redesigning his staff, i think in a positive way, and all of the talk about shake-up, i think helps him. i think the political system demands a shake-up. >> he's also adjusting -- >> and daley is a good emissary to the business community. >> he's more than that. i think -- >> meaning that he was a ceo? >> john, he's not on a businessman, look this is the daley family, the daley

machine. this is a tough customer. he's a moderately conservative guy. barack obama is making a clear move to the center because he's got to work with the republican party. the people out in the cold here are the nancy pelosi democrats not only in appointments but in policy. they are deeply unhappy and will remain unhappy because obama sees his road to victory on the center right. >> he's more centrist than obama? >> sure. he kicks gibbs out. he will have trouble with valerie jared. [ all talking at once ] >> you think this is his ilding business. that's important right now. >> that is absolutely the critical move for president obama right now because he understands now. he suddenly has just become a free market. what he does understand is that he has got to get this economy moving otherwise he will go down in history as a poor one- term president. the connection with daley, who did nafta under bill clinton that had the left wing and

unions going bananas, what else is new? obama has his eye clearly on re- election and the outreach to the business community is going to be so critical as well as outreach to the independence -- [ all talking at once ] >> there is a modest grumbling on the left, but to howard dean who's progressive. robert reich who was the labor secretary in clinton's term. they are all supportive of daley. you haven't had any complaints. i think this is a broadly well received -- >> howard dean was not a light dusting. howard dean was very tough on the white house. it's the whole aura, the who whole atmosphere. >> he likes daley. [ all talking at once ] >> you want to get into this? >> no, i was saying it's welcoming that he's trying to build bridges. there's been too much finger pointing in the last year. so much of what's happening right now in the american

public depends on this. having someone who's pragmatic is very important in reaching out and building bridges. >> have we seen any evidence already, a touch of centrism -- >> he said get pelosi and reid out of the way and give me what i want. >> that was daley's idea. >> exit question, political probability scale zero to ten zero meaning zero, ten being metaphysical certitude, rate daley's prospects for transforming obama that a centrist, zero to ten? >> i think daley will take obama where he wants to go, which is to the center. >> because he wants re- election? >> obama and he are all aligned on that one. >> obama made the turn before he chose daley. daley reinforces that the next two years are not about more progressive legislation, they are about holding the line on

what he's accomplished and trying to get some progress on energy and climate change. >> there has been no change in barack obama's ideological heart or thinking, however, he has been mugged by political reality. he saw what happened to his party in november. they absolutely got decimated, and remember that he brought in bill daley. bill daley opposed major elements of obama care, including the individual mandate and the public option, and he opposed big chunks of the financial regulatory bill. >> julian? >> we can all agree to agree that basically daley is a >> b@l%b@ @fa @b@fafab@is not impressive. >> reporter: $14 trillion in debt. the ongoing national debt. the national debt is the amount of money the united states has borrowed from sovereign nations like china, from banks worldwide including the federal reserve and foreign banks, state and private as well as

from individuals. the national debt amounts to $45,000 of debt for every man, woman and child in the nation, and 130,000 of debt for every taxpayer. and every day the debt grows by $4 billion per day. the debt is so big that congress has to put a limit on borrowing. it's called the debt ceiling. it's now fixed at $14.3 trillion. congress votes this session on whether to raise the debt ceiling. get this. to permit the further borrowing that keeps the government functioning this year. 300 billion is the maximum before the limit is reached. without raising the debt ceiling, a government shutdown and/or default on the government's obligations could happen, including no funding for social security, for medicare, and for defense. but many republicans in the house and senate, skewed by the tea party, are not taking the

new debt ceiling kool-aid. 14.3 trillion is their debt limit. no new ceiling. >> i will not vote for the debt ceiling increase until i see a plan in place that will our lon obligation. >> question. is the showdown looming over the debt ceiling, the kind of showdown that produced a government shut down before? pat? >> i don't think so, but republicans will get a it through. it's going to go through. >> speaker boehner said the government has to act like grown-ups and it will be the tea party's turn to be mugged by reality. >> the main message can be summed up in two words, stop spending. ultimately, it will come with a price for the democrats because the republicans now have a ton of leverage to extract real serious and deep spending cuts. >> jillian, you must know all

of the answers. >> i only wish i did, but hey, the bad news is this is very bad timing because markets are very nervous right now. you see when's happening in europe. uncertainty about what the u.s. is going to do is like the issue four. u.s. citizen by birth right? >> someone here is illegally and they have a child, that child is automatically granted u.s. citizenship. >> that's right, senator graham, because of a legal doctrine known as birth right citizenship. that means that anyone born inside the united states or a territory of the united states like puerto rico or guam will automatically become citizens of the united states. birth right citizenship applies even if both parents are illegal immigrants. as long as the child is born in the u.s., the illegal status of

the parent does not matter. supporters cite the u.s. constitution, in particular the 14th amendment which dates back to 1866 just after the civil war. "all persons born or naturalized in the united states and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of the united states and of the state wherein they reside." critics argue that the 14th amendment was intended to apply to newly freed slaves, not children of illegal aliens. their solution some. >> i think that at least one parent should be in the country legally before we automatically make all of the children instant citizens. >> 14 states are looking to make that solution a reality. lawmakers from five states unveiled measures this week to deny birth right citizenship to children born without at least one parent that is either a legal citizen or legal resident. nine other states will soon follow suit. the total list, alabama,

arizona, delaware, idaho, indiana, michigan, mississippi,' montana, nebraska, oklahoma, pennsylvania, texas and utah. the goal is not to change the 14th amendment in state legislatures. the inherent behind the state measures is to spur a legal challenge that will beresolved before the united states supreme court. question. as a practical matter, how can individual states deny birth right citizenship to infants. pat? >> after the 14th amendment, there were indians born in the united states who were not citizens. they had to be legislated. people have always understood that to deal with slaves and children who have been in this country. the states are challenging the supreme court decision, john, which had been wrongly interpreted 14th amendment. this is an enormous issue. 300 to 400,000 anchor babies are born every year. >> meaning what? >> the whole family of ill deal aliens in the united states when the baby is born.

secondly there's maternity tourism going on on the west coast. $15,000 to get women into the united states when they are pregnant. they have the baby here and the baby is lined up to go to college in california. >> you hear that? >> i do hear that. >> do you see that as an abuse what pat's describing? >> i think there's certainly a problem with incentive right now. i also say doing it on a state by state basis is problematic. >> so you like the idea of bringing it to the supreme court? >> first of all, anchor babies that he's talking about, it takes, the baby has to reach maturity before they can start bringing in the family. >> they stay here. they are born here. >> bringing in the whole family, you are pretending that there are hordes of people coming in when one little baby -- >> they stay here. >> this is a minuscule percentage, and this country was founded by immigrants who were driven out of other countries and courts have interpreted -- >> legally. they came here legally,

eleanor. that's a difference. >> quickly. >> the people who have been in this country have led good lives. the incentives behind this legislation is so mean spirited. if you want to talk about republican realignment -- [ all talking at once ] >> what's that? >> it's undercutting the impression of american tolerance and inclusion in the world. >> i'll tell you, the united states is a nation of laws not of men. that's what the constitution is all about. and to have these people, and not every illegal immigrant is a good person, eleanor. we have a lot of illegal immigrants committing grave crimes. [ all talking at once ] >> look, john -- >> can we get a little scholarship in here? the supreme court in 1898, u.s. versus long kim of course, in the 1982 decision, the court's majority reaffirmed the view so is it a done deal? >> no, john that is a supreme court issue but they had to decide. it was not automatic the 14th

amendment. it dealt with the legislation the chinese exclusion act. >> when the states are challenging the 14th amendment, challenging predecisions, pat? >> sue dan will -- sudan will vote to break itself in half and it will not be nonviolent. >> the chief of staff reportedly wants a woman as the next press secretary. karen stunny apparently has the inside track. >> hanukkah? >> opec will not increase production any time soon pushing gasoline to over $4 per galp, and i think that will seriously damage both the economy and obama's political fortune. >> jillian some. >> markets will get more and more nervous in greece about the crisis and that will increase the effect of the meaningful market and potentially even the debt. >> on the birds and the fish, i predict the world will not end on may 21, 2011 or within calendar vogeico, committed to providing service to

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