>> tom: a snowy january puts a chill on job creation. but the labor market's problems stretch beyond mother nature. >> there's still some signs of softness, even excluding what we can see on the weather effect. the services industries in the private sector and the government are still quite soft. >> suzanne: we're still far from being back in business when it comes to jobs and the economic recovery. you're watching "nightly business report" for friday, february 4. this is "nightly business report" with susie gharib and tom hudson. "nightly business report" is made possible by:

this program is made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by wpbt >> tom: good evening. susie gharib is off tonight. i'm joined by my colleague suzanne pratt. suzanne, the nation's job market is still in crisis. there were, however, some conflicting signs as to just how bad things are in the latest employment report today. >> suzanne: tom, first and foremost, job creation in january was a huge disappointment. a scant 36,000 positions were added to company payrolls last month. that's a far cry from the roughly 150,000 expected. on the other hand, the unemployment rate fell to 9%. it's lowest level in two years.

>> tom: that has some economists convinced things are actually getting better not worse. erika miller reports. >> reporter: if you are looking for the message in today's employment report, look no further than this manhattan intersection. >> it's a messy report. it's a little bit like the new york city streets right now. it's got a lot of difficulty wading through it. it's definitely distorted by the weather. >> reporter: as economist bruce kasman points out many offices were closed at some point during the month reducing demand for workers. there may also have been some statistical noise that made the data look worse than it is. but one point is clear: job growth is not as strong as you'd expect a year and a half into the economic recovery. >> there's still some signs of softness, even excluding what we can see on the weather effect. the services industries in the private sector and the government are still quite soft. >> reporter: there is great debate about whether the sharp drop in the unemployment rate is positive or negative. the rate has fallen 0.8% since

november. that's the biggest two month drop in more than 50 years. economist michael gapen believes that tells the true story of what's happening in the labor market. >> we think that the payroll data will actually be revised over time to be more in line with what the unemployment data is showing us. >> reporter: but skeptics point out the reason unemployment has been falling is more people are giving up looking for jobs. that means the government no longer counts them as unemployed. the labor market needs roughly 300,000 job gains each month to make a significant dent in the unemployment rate. that's about ten times the gains we saw in january. as a result, many job seekers are begging the government for more stimulus measures. but some economists don't think they're needed, especially if the unemployment rate continues to fall. >> i think actually the reverse is true. this signals that the job market is much stronger than many people gave it credit for. that the policy stimulus being provided by the federal reserve and fiscal policy is working.

and over time you would actually need less stimulus. >> reporter: already there are warnings that the next jobs report may also be clouded by weather, given major snowstorms this week. so it could be spring before there's a clearer read on the labor market. erika miller, "nightly business report," new york. >> suzanne: unrest in the middle tonight we wanted to put the chaos in egypt in some perspective. with 83 million people, egypt is the most populous arab nation. but its g.d.p. of roughly $188 billion a year is little more than the state of alabama. meanwhile, one in four young egyptians can't find work. and as darren gersh reports, the political unrest is making the economic pain more severe.

>> reporter: egyptian banks have been closed all week and many people are running out of cash. few are going to work. and for the poor, who often live day to day, the standoff in tahrir square is hitting hard. the economist's max rodenbeck says the test of wills between demonstrators and the government is increasingly economic. >> the core of the protesters is really middle class people who-- they can go a couple weeks without work and stuff without going to work. but for the vast majority of egyptians who are poor, it is getting increasingly difficult and the government is quite successfully trying to blame all the problems on the protesters. >> reporter: and those problems are mounting. this is the height of egypt's tourism season, last year, a $12 billion industry. but cruise lines have canceled visits and tourists have left by the thousands. some rich businessmen have fled the country, but others have been slapped with a travel ban.

responding to demonstrators demanding an end to official corruption, the government has frozen the assets of leading businessmen, threatening to put them on trial. which is not necessarily a very positive thing for egypt's economy. you don't want to start scaring off your wealthiest people, but that's a sign of the kind of pressure the government feels it is under to deal with the issue of corruption. but egypt's central economic and political issue remains mubarak himself says middle east scholar michael rubin. >> the longer mubarak stays in power, the more radicalism there is going to be in the streets the more imagery is going to be broadcast around the world of sheer and complete chaos in egypt. >> it's been estimated the egyptian president and his family have amassed a fortune of anywhere from $40 billion to $70 billion. wealth that stretches from new york real estate to british and swiss bank accounts. that's money a new egyptian government will likely want back. now this might be a problem more directly for european banks, but

ultimately, it's going to be seen in the streets of cairo as a wedge issue between egypt and the west and that could also undercut the recovery. analysts say egyptian business leaders would welcome a less repressive and more open society. today it remains far from clear whether they will get that. darren gersh, "nightly business report," washington. >> tom: here are the stories in tonight's n.b.r. newswheel: stocks moved higher despite today's mixed news on jobs. the dow rose almost 30 points, the nasdaq added half that and the s&p 500 was up three points. trading volume about the same as yesterday with 900 million shares moving on the big board and just under two billion on the nasdaq. coming soon to an airport near you-- unionized t.s.a. workers. the american federation of government employees says the government has agreed to grant collective bargaining rights to the nation's 40,000 airport screeners. the move comes just days after the transportation security agency said it would not hire

private contractors to screen airline passengers. the justice department is urging the b.p. claims administrator to loosen the purse strings on payouts to victims of the oil spill. in a strongly worded letter, justice reminded kenneth feinberg that his job is not to preserve b.p.'s money. the letter also cited the amount of payouts so far-- just $3 billion of the $20 billion fund. no comment yet from feinberg. any money left in the fund goes back to b.p. still ahead, will sunday's big game be the last for a while? what a potential n.f.l. lockout could mean for billions in stadium i.o.u.s, their investors and communities. >> suzanne: remember the flash crash from last may, when the dow fell 700 points in minutes before rebounding? a member of the panel trying to figure out how to avoid another one said today he expects recommendations to be made by february 18. nobel prize-winning economist robert engle said the group had not yet decided on its final

suggestions for regulators. but, he believes the focus should be on improving liquidity in the stock market. >> the flash crash was fundamentally the result of liquidity evaporating and there are a lot of reasons why it evaporated. so if we can increase the incentives to brokers and traders to supply liquidity, it would reduce the probability that you'll have another even like this, but it won't reduce it to zero. >> suzanne: engle would like to see the exchanges use a peak load pricing model. meaning when volume is heavier, trades cost more. he'd also like to see a crack down on off-exchange trading.

>> suzanne: tom, considering what was going on in egypt this week with all the violence there and the chaos, it's been a pretty impressive week for stocks in pretty much all the major averages. >> tom: it has and not that volatile a week despite all the geopolitical pressure and the oil volatility. a decent week to be long on u.s. stocks so let's get everybody updated on tonight's market focus. >> tom: it took the market a few hours to decide which way to go today, after digesting the january jobs data.

we were able to end the day with small gains, but enough to put the indices at post-recession highs. for the week, the dow industrials were up all five sessions. total gain for the week: 2.3%. the nasdaq went four for five with a gain of just over 3% since last friday. and the s&p 500 added 2.7% for the week. the major indices weren't the only ones seeing some fresh highs, a handful of commodities also popped this week. here's how three settled today. cotton was weaker today, but the selling comes after prices have tripled in the past year. one futures exchange has put limits on cotton speculators. meantime, copper jumped another 1% today. speculators have boosted their positions by 14%. speculators are traders or investors who have no economic need to trade in a commodity. and corn continues its climb to its highest price since the summer of 2008. the leading stock sector was

technology today, led by telecommunications gear makers. specifically, j.d.s. uniphase. it saw a huge pop in price and volume. the price exploded by 27%. we're looking at a 90 session chart here. let's roll out a one year chart to see the longer trend of j.d.s.u. it's quarterly results were much better than expected thanks to its optical components business. and that had others in this business moving. ciena, finisar and oo-claro each saw double digit gains on very strong volume. their optical networking gear is used by telecommunication companies, cable companies and computer networking firms. as mobile computing and online video has grown, so has their businesses.

health insurer aetna was a picture of health. shares jumped 12.5%. this is a $15 billion company that saw its market value grow by more than $1 billion today. earnings were only a penny above estimates, but a huge jump from a year ago. also helping today's stock reaction, a better than expected outlook. among the losers today, casino operator las vegas sands. shares fell 8% as revenue was disappointing. the stock remains in a range between 42 and 52 that it has been in since last fall. another big loser, industrial battery maker power-one lost more than a fifth of its value. its forecast was less than anticipated. this is a three-month low. finally, some of the new stocks this week. tornier makes orthopedic products. despite today's rally, it is below its initial price of $19. epocrates has seen a big jump from its first price of $16. it makes software for hand held

devices for doctors. and telecom gear supplier neo- photonics also saw a nice introduction starting at $11 and closing well above that today. and that's tonight's market focus. >> tom: sunday's super bowl may be the last n.f.l. game for some time. the league and the players union have until march to get a new contract or there could be a lock-out. no deal could spell trouble for the millions spent on building new stadiums. i recently spoke with the head of sports finance at j.p. morgan private bank richard walden and began by asking what kind of

threat a lock-out poses for investors. >> well, if you've got a bond that's depending upon all the revenue from playing games, and they're not playing games, there could be a real disruption in terms of any of the noncontractual ref nourish the regular season ticket sales, all of those items that go into creating the cash flow that help repay the bonds. >> tom: to some degree is depends on how the bonds were constructed. if attach to the game olz the field those cash flows could be quite disrupted, couldn't they? >> correct. and when looking t lockout, not just the nfl but all of the leagues that's potentially coming, and this is something everyone is keeping a very close eye on because there are plenty of bonds that are reliant on, on-field play and other contractual revenues outside of any municipal cash flows. >> tom: investors, and players alike, no doubt. this year's super bowl will be played at one of the new and heavily indebted stadiums,

cowboy stadium in dallas, a billion-dollar shrine to modern-day football, $600 million from i.o.u.s. how could a lockout affect koib stadium? >> well, the one benefit the cowboys have is they have a significant amount of contractual revenue that could continue to pay whether games are played or not. >> there are a variety of contractual obligations that will pay through a lockout. some will pay part. also, the league has provided all sorts of protective funds, either as you saw from the lawsuit from the players' union against using tv money to spectacular reserve that the nfl has set up. these could be used by the team to carry all of the obligations of the stadium. i think people are pretty confidential that it will carry but there's an awful lot of debt out there, and it is much better to play games. >> tom: you mentioned an awful lot of debt. cowboy stadium is not alone. stadiums hosting three of the next four super bowls. including the new meadowlands stadium in new york and new

jersey, cowboy stadium and lucas oil stadium in indianapolis. could they wind up seeing increased borrowing costs if there is a lockout? >> well, all of the bonds that are behind the stadium have reserves that are build built-in there that could carry them for up to a couple years. the problem is if it's an extended lockout, i think there could be a serious impact. it could result in them borrowing more, changing interest rates and having an impact. if it's a short-term lockout, it should be okay. >> tom: what about the construction of new stadiums? there is a new push for new stadiums, the minnesota vikings looking for a new stadium, even los angeles, without an nfl franchise is talking about an nfl stadium. what about the possibility of these new construction practicals and the revenue and local jobs that go along with them? >> well, i think what all of the people doing the planning are contemplating is a significant amount of equity that goes into these deals.

expless less municipal money, less and less private financing that's available. the typical financing mechanism right now for any long-term debt around a sports enterprise or stadium has been a private placement. those are all predicated on this contractually obligated income, whether it be a naming rights deal or long-term sponsorship deal. any new stadium has to involve a lot more equity than in the past. >> tom: finally here, packers or steelers, rich? >> i like both teams. i have no particular favorite there. storied teams. i just want to see a good, fun game that maybe even goes into overtime. >> tom: they both may be client at some point. richard walden from j.p. morgan private bank. thanks, rich. >> thank you. >> suzanne: monday, we tackle super bowl commercials. and ask, did advertisers get their money's worth? beyond the scoreboard looks at how time warner hopes to heat up sales of its annual sport illustrated swimsuit edition. also next week, our market monitor guest is frank cochrane of investment timing consultants. and we'll see quarterly results from walt disney, coca-cola and pepsico.

ally financial, the lender once known as g.m.a.c., has picked four banks to handle its return to life as a public company. citigroup, goldman sachs, j.p. morgan chase and morgan stanley will reportedly lead the i.p.o. uncle sam still owns 74% of ally, after bailing it out with a $17 billion loan during the financial crisis. ally is not commenting on the i.p.o. detail and the treasury has hired its own advisor for the deal. >> tom: 2010 was a good year for most chrysler dealerships. eight out of ten finished the year with a profit. for the most part, that money was used to upgrade or expand their dealerships. chrysler c.e.o. sergio marchionne says he's relying on the 2,300 u.s. dealers to help the company meet its goal of selling two million vehicles worldwide this year. in the coming weeks, chrysler will start selling its compact fiat 500 in u.s. showrooms.

>> tom: investors can't recognize a bull market for stocks when they see one. so says tonight's market monitor and he thinks the bull run will continue. he's john dorfman, chairman and founder of thunderstorm capital. john, always nice to see you. welcome back to n.b.r..

>> thank you so much. >> tom: so what makes you so comfort that this bull market in stocks we've seen over the the past year and a half if not longer will continue? >> well, there's really three things, tom. first is profits. profits are just marvelous right now, about 11% of g.d.p. if you're a guy who is a-- working in a factory, you say i don't want to see profits that high. but that's a portal to other good things that could happen, like unemployment coming down. so that's the first thing. >> tom: okay. >> the second thing is interest rates are low, especially short-term rates are low, and that's stimulative to the stock market. and finally, we're going to be entering the third year ofa know economic expansion pretty soon. and traditionally, according to a piece that j.p. morgan put out the third year of an economic expansion sees 21% gains in the stock market. i'm not looking for that much but i think 10-15 is realistic. >> tom: nice gains still left to be had considering we're up 3%,

3.5% so far this year already. john, you mentioned employment. does today's employment figures for january and the soft numbers you saw worry you, though, about the sustainability? >> i think that, you know, there is mixnews in the employment report today but i like the fact that in two months it's come down from 9.8 to 9.0. things are finally moving in the right direction. >> tom: all right, you brought new picks along that you think are money makers beginning with one of the largest technology comes out there, intel, intc. it's sporting a pretty nice dividend these days, 3.4%. but what's the catalyst for such a juggernaut like this? >> what i really like about intel right now, about 95% of corporate management talk bullish when you interview them but there are two brom tefrz sincerity they like to see. one is companies raising its dividend, and another one is insiders are buying. at intel you see both of those sincerity barometers at work so that's the biggest reason i like it.

>> tom: not just technology but you're getting into automotive manufacturing, magna international, an auto parts maker that has been on fire this year as auto buying and manufacturing has come back. again, presumably, is this a global play or more north american auto market? >> well, it is in fact global but it's mostly north america that interests me right now. one could buy general motors, or ford, but i like to buy stocks with strong balance sheets. and i don't find many car makers or auto parts makers that do but magna does so that's why i chose magna. >> tom: you also like an industrial company, foul industries, makes industrial fans and other equipment. kind of a choppy chart over the past 12 months, pretty volatile, and it's at the top of the range. would you put new money to work or wait? >> i would put money in it if i didn't have it already at work there. their biggest sprukt heavy-scale

industrial electricity management equipment for mostly utilities and refineries, so i think it's a good play on a recovering economy. >> tom: you're not totally bullish. you're a trader and investor. you like moody's to go down in stock price so you're shorth the stock looking for prices to move lower from 29.85, where they're at tonight. who is the catalyst here to push m.c.o. lower jowell, you're right about my feeling about moody's and this is a good moment to say i am short that and long the stocks i have just recommended. moody's, i think, has a plaued business model. they're paid by the people they rate and sooner or later i think that can cause serious sorts of problems. in addition, they have negative net worth when you study their been sheet. >> tom: and certainly a big regulatory focus on moody's in that business. let's get to your previous picks from last june. in the manager space it was transocean, and roen, each of these seeing some big increases.

you still long on these stocks? >> yup, i am. >> tom: nicely done there. and a couple of others. garmin was the loser for you. that stock is down about 7%, and china advance construction a 25% gainer. you still long on these two? >> yup. china advance is still a multiple stock. selling at four to five types earning. as for garnl, i have my matter my throat with that but i do with almost everythingy own. >> tom: are you long, everything you mentioned long, and short moody's for the disclosures. we appreciate it. our guest this evening for market >> suzanne: that's "nightly business report" for friday, february 4. i'm suzanne pratt. goodnight everyone and have a good weekend-- you too, tom. >> tom: good night, suzanne. i'm tom hudson. goodnight, everyone. we hope to see all of you again next week. "nightly business report" is made possible by:

this program was made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by wpbt captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org