from washington "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest if. for such a small word it packs a wallop. if i live to a hundred. if social security isn't enough. if my heart gets broken. if she says yes. we believe if should never hold you back. if should be managed with a plan that builds on what you already have. together we can create a personal safety net, a launching pad, for all those brilliant ifs in the middle of life. you can call on our expertise and get guarantees for the if in life. after all, we're metlife.

its auto insurance customers for over 70 years.e to more information on auto insurance at geico.com or 1-800-947-auto any time of the day or night. issue one, arab revolt. >> and i also think an important lesson we can draw from this is real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. it's going to happen because people come together and apply moral force to a situation. >> from algeria, to iran, arabs are applying moral force. the protestors have three

things in common -- they're all relatively young and they are mostly jobless. they also use online social media websites like facebook and twitter to organize their political activity. over 640 people have died since protests began in late december. algeria, median age of the population, 27 years. unemployment rate, 9.9%. tunisia, median age of the general population, 30. unemployment rate, general population, 14. libya, age 24, unemployment, 30. egypt, age 24, unemployment, 9.7. jordan, age 22, unemployment 13.4. syria, age 21, unemployment, 8.3. iraq, age 21, unemployment, 15.3. yemen, age 18, unemployment 35.

iran, age 26, unemployment 14.6. and finally, the kingdom of bahrain, age 30, unemployment, 3.7%. bahrain, by the way, is a key u.s. ally in the persian gulf. it hosts the u.s. navy's fifth fleet, which keeps the persian gulf open for oil transport to the rest of the world. 35% of the world's oil passes through this persian gulf. the persian gulf is also a strategic area for the fifth fleet fth fleet to monitor iran's activity. question, what explains the explosive protests in the middle east, especially these 10 nations, pat buchanan? >> i think tunisia. ape dictator who could be knocked over, he was gone in a matter of days. suddenly it goes to egypt. this is 1848, john. as it happened all across europe. it's happened across the middle east. but bahrain is key. it's an island of about 500,000

natives, about 70% and 30% sunni and foreign workers and they've been shooting them on the streets on friday after services. in the mosques. what will happen there, john, i think they're going to put that down with force of arms because you've got the american fifth treat for and across the causeway is saudi arabia work where there are two million shiites and 90% of oil. >> and in tunisia you have that young man, recall that? hello, what do you think? >> as the statistics you just put up on the screen indicate, there's an incredible youth bulge in all of these countries. and they're seeing the opportunities because of the availability through facebook and the internet. they're not getting any of it. and so i think this is really redefining our -- what we called the arab street.

we used to consider those fringe radicals. this is really a truly populous uproar, doctors, lawyers, unemployed youth and a huge swaths of the population. it's fascinating to watch the administration because unlike with egypt, i don't think they're nudging any of these autocratic leaders behind the scene necessarily to leave. the president's articulating america's core interests and values. but he is kind of leaving it there, and letth chips fall where they may. because i think there's really worry about what happens after the revolution in the countries, if it gets to that point. >> that's the most vulnerable moment. it's sort of now in egypt, where everything is such an influx. i think there are a lot of different dynamics going on here and a lot of the dynamics vary country to country. so in the case of tunisia or algeria, do you have a great thirst for economic prosperity,

opportunity, and in egypt the muslim brotherhood has been orchestrate this is in the beginning. the original organizers have been waiting 80 years for this moment in egypt. they're not going to blow this. they're riding this. which have the return of the godfather of the egypt muss living room brotherhood came back from qatar this week into egypt. some ominous signs there. in bahrain we have not so much an economic revolt or even an islamist re development. what we have is a monarchy that a schooneee, 70% of the population s shia so you have a tremendous imbalance there and pay close attention to iran. because iran is a mischief maker in bahrain. they want to support the see hartsfield-jackson but also they would like to see a shia uprising take hold to get the united states' fifth fleet out of there. >> what's the impact on israel? >> very dangerous because right now israel is surrounded by

iran on all sides, hezbollah to the north and lebanon and syria, hamas in the south with gaza, the egyptian situation continues to unfold. looks like the muslim brotherhood and other islamists influence could ride this to at least a conclusion that they can control and expand their influence, and now you've got -- >> maybe not -- >> iran playing games. >> maybe not! exactly. >> what do you think? >> maybe not. i think -- brotherhood -- thank you, john. great to be back. reports of the muss living room brotherhood exaggerated from a lot of sources. they -- their impact -- a large degree they've been rather amazed trying to get ahead of the parade there too. what is more important is the big lesson for us if you're going to have an educated populous, get them some jocks. egypt certainly had a lot of frustrated young educated people, some going offer to join al-qaeda or muslim brotherhood. but a lot of them are not ideological. they just want a say in how

they're governed. there was a tremendous pro- democracy spirit there. and that's troubling to some people here in the states who don't want egypt to have democracy. unless they're going to elect somebody -- >> what do you think of mr. obama's performance thus far? >> i think a slow start, but he got up to speed, which is not that unusual in these kind of situations. i mean, we did not have anybody here in the u.s. predicting the fall of the berlin wall either. this has been a massive series of events. everybody said it could happen some day but you didn't know when. everything came together with the crisis. >> as a result of a direct conflict between our ideals and beliefs, which are in democracy and one man one vote, and in our vital interests. in bahrain an american fleet there, which is a check on iran. if you have one man, one boat, will you get a see hartsfield- jackson government there and the sunnis won't allow that, and the king of about rain won't allow. that and i don't think the

americans want that! >> which is why you see the administration playing this very carefully. they're really not out front nudging these leaders aside. on the other hand, if that leader in bahrain topples, the administration wants to be sure they are seen on the side of history and the side of young people. you have an awakening in what was before a pretty busch part of the world with politics. now instead of people being afraid of the governments, you have the governments afraid of the people. a stunning turnaround. >> the governmentst are starting to use live ammunition in all of these places. >> you want to point out that in bahrain, unlike other muslim countries, alcohol is okay. so our sailors can get a beer or martini. >> they can! bahrain is a relatively secular state, because it's an absolute monarchy. and it is a vital interest of the united states. it's right there as a choke punt in the persian gulf, where much of the world's oil flows.

did you know there's an oil tanker from the persian gulf on its way to japan every hundred miles? it comes right out of there. and also keep in mind that that island nation of bahrain lies right next to 13 1/2 miles away from saudi arabia. >> bahrain is more of a commercial enterprise. >> i'm not getting from you, clarence -- this surprises me, because i know how -- >> i'll full of surprises, john. >> you want to make a list and leave it with brianna? >> then you wouldn't be surprised! >> i'm not getting a sense sense of how serious this rein of 10 countries enduring this is to the globe, the planet. >> it's very serious! >> are we rede soon the planet? >> israel is not war with egypt. it is absolute utter isolation. they lost iran in '17, they lost the turks, they're using

egypt. of got hamas to the south, hezbollah, and the king of jordan is in trouble. >> i don't know that their isolation is significantly worse than it was before. and i think that israeli leadership has been playing this pretty well. they were nervous at first and now seem to be understanding that this is okay, that they're going to survive and maybe everybody can ride this out. point is, we're not going to be able to control these forces, so celebrate the democratic uprising and then try -- >> i don't think i'll celebrate until i see how this plays out. >> israel is waiting to see how it comes out. but we riding the wrong pony into tunisia which is the first to blow now they're experiencing turmoil, people are moving trying to get into italy and the island off the coast of utley, which is italian. >> six thousand left the country. that's a real possibility. >> so the sequel to what we see. >> it's unfolding, john.

>> and the relief in particularly in the economy that these countries hope -- >> this is the point, john. one is they are, they are fleeing tunisia and frighten to death. >> right. >> if the flight from egypt -- how do these people -- [everyone talking at once] >> 10 countries over there. >> also a lot of people -- [everyone talking at once] >> economic problems, john. i don't know they have the answers. >> a lot of people fled iraq bus they didn't like what was happening. and i don't remember a lot of discussion on this group worrying about that flight. and a lot of people now are leaving egypt and going back to iraq because iraq seems relatively stable. but the question of crockization, we've got to hope for the best and hope this cracks open the whole middle east with getter political and economic realization. this neighborhood has no track record of democracy and the only arab democracy is the one built by the united states in iraq. and the last -- [everyone talking at once] >> last democratic vote we saw

in the middle east was gaza, hamas won with 70% of the vote. >> what's the biggest democracy in the middle east is turkey. >> right. >> where have they gone? they used to be pro-american, pro-israel and anti-islamic. they're moving pro-islamic, anti-american. >> right on. >> that's -- no, turkey is the best model you're going to get. >> question, how long will it be before tourism returns to normal? we can see it the pyramids else those-ly silly camels. give me the day, month and year when tourists will be welcome in egypt. >> when you got a functioning democratic -- >> when is that? >> i don't know, john. i have no idea. >> you want to -- guess. >> i say not this year. >> i think if -- get a military regime you can get -- >> i have friends going to egypt next week.

they're eager for tourists. and they can't wait until they have a functioning regime after elections are held six months. >> you think they'll be back to normal. >> no, i'm not going for say normal, but there are tours that will be going into egypt. people want to see what's happening there. >> they have to be very brave bus the reports we've gotten out of egypt over the last few weeks of a lot of western journalists, lara logan getting brutally attacked, other male reporters getting brutally attacked, i think it will be quite a while before -- returns. >> the fact is tourism is a major industry in egypt. the army over there is probably -- one of best in the region, probably the best. and they'll do everything to restore tourism as quickly issue two, credit card nation. >> we're not going to be running up the credit card anymore. that's important, and that's hard to do. but it's necessary to do, and i think that the american people

understand that. >> the united states is equivalently living off a credit card. for the fiscal year that began four months ago and terminates eight months from now, the nation will return depend sits of $1.5 trillion in credit. so says the non-partisan congressional budget office in its 190-page report, the budget and economic outlook, physical years 2011 to 2021. and get this -- that's the biggest amount of credit for a one-year period on record. in it highlights the deterioration in america's fiscal outlook, even as the economy grinds forward and the unemployment rate drops slowly. last year, the deficit was $1.4 trillion. the year before it was 1.3 trillion. as a share of the u.s. economy, this economy, this economy, since the second world war.

now there's more to the status of our condition. credit-wise, there's also the ungoing public debt. sometimes called the national debt. it accrues all of our annual deficits. when you add those all up, it totals over $14 trillion and increasing at billion a day! question, why do president obama pass up the opportunity to give congress a budget that includes meaningful deficit reduction? >> because it runs counter to the -- to the -- stimulus spending and tax reductions that obama has already gotten into legislation. when you say meaningful, that of course is a relative adjective. i think that the long-term problem that we have is not with discretionary spending but social security, medicaid and the administration isn't ready to tackle that right now. i wish they it, but they're not. >> everybody in the boat

together at the same time. >> at this point, yes. you got to do it. >> playing politics. >> he's playing politics. >> sure. >> don't we all? >> haven't we all! with these -- >> you got a fiscal and financial crisis of a high order, john. everybody knows it in the country. deficit. >> you want him to approach social security -- >> i would like him to lead. he's the president of the united states! >> oh, stop it. >> the talking points on the republican side is lack of leadership. he punted. of course, he punted. he is not going to go out there and step on the third rail by himself. >> what's wrong with that? >> the social security age is already going up and the social security problem is the least of the problems facing the country. but what has to happen is the leaders of the two parties have to get together and it's begun to happen in the senate, with more mark warner and sacks by chambliss and they need a bill that's too big to fail. >> let me this.

wisconsin and $3.6 billion deficit. >> these are unions that historically for years have never had anyone challenge them. >> who that, the governor. here we go. >> a major showdown between wisconsin union workers and the wisconsin state government. thousands of workers, students and union supporters picketed the capital on madison. they are opposed to governor scott walker's legislation, he's a republican remember, that would require union workers to pay more money into their state pensions and health care plans. he also wants to curb the union's collective bargaining rights. union members say the governor walker wants to bust up the union. on wednesday president obama stood the wisconsin pot by describing walker's actions as a assault on the union. on friday, speaker john boehner weighed in on facebook, saying

the president attacked governor walker for attempting to rein in state spending, then he said, call off th>> right on! look, the state governors are in fiscal disasters, just the way the federal government is? a fiscal disaster. they have to balance their budgets and that's exactly what this governor and and the new republican legislature in wisconsin were elected to do, just two short months ago. what this governor is trying to do is rein in the power of government unions and reduce the size of government overall. guess what, john? there is no money! there is no money in these states! the party is over. and the governor is calling -- [everyone talking at once] >> the other side gets to weigh in. >> he said there is no more money. >> the unions refuse to negotiate with the governor of a reduced compensation so the

choice is -- >> not true, not true! >> or lose your job. >> wait a minute. >> the unions are willing to yield on how much they pay for the health care and pensions and so forth. what they don't want is their right for collective bargaining to be taken away. and that's what it's about. and there is a possibility that compromise if the governor begins up that aspect of the legislation. but the bigger picture here is in all of these midwestern and southern battleground states, the governors who are facing budget deficits are using the cover of fiscal frugality to crack down on the unions, which is the only -- [everyone talking at once] >> quickly, quickly, let's go. >> the big issue is this is barack obama versus scott walker. he is goating the unions and goating the demonstrators. he's weeding his -- >> you know why? because obama has to carry wisconsin if he's going to win re-election. yes or no? >> he's making a move to the left and it's a mistake!

he will lose wisconsin! [everyone talking at once] >> if he loses wisconsin, will he lose election? >> yes! >> the republicans are going to overplay their hand and they're going to do so public employee union workers and ordinary people what issue three, sea-tac launchpad. the 20 levannual conservative political action conference, sea pack, was held last week. nine presumptive presidential candidates spoke at the conference. haley barbour, mitch daniels, newt gingrich, ron paul, tim paw lenny, rick perry, mitt romney, paul ryan, and john thune. but one non-presumptive candidate did appear and held forth. >> if i decide to run, i will not be raising taxes.

[cheering] we'll be taking in hundreds of millions of dollars from other countries that are screwing us. [cheering] we'll be creating vast numbers of productive jobs. [cheering] and -- thank you very much. and we'll rebuild our country so that we can be proud. our country will be great again. >> question, is he serious about a presidential bid authorize is a publicity ploy? >> well, certainly it's a publicity ploy. the question something, is he serious about it? >> i don't know. but he is at least speaking on economic nationalism in a way that nobody else in america is. he's talking about the chinese, tariffs and putting man, one bo

country. the message is right on for a republican, there's no republican out there that's got this message right now. up saw -- >> messenger. >> you saw who won on -- the messenger is too old. you saw who won sea pac, ron paul. also shows there's an anti- defense or anti-war if you will movement inside the conservative movement, which is growing stronger. >> what's the best thing trump has going for him? >> the thing on to of his head, whatever it was. >> that he's not a politician. >> that's not bad. >> what's number two? >> he's a businessesman. >> there's something even better? [everyone talking at once] >> his attitude. he's got conviction and -- >> optimism. >> he said he carries a big stick or heavy stick. and he said that if -- if -- [everyone talking at once]

the world would not be bossing us around. >> money. >> what is it? >> money. >> hard to calculate. >> what does he have? what does he have? name identification, that's what he's government that's invaluable! billions of dollars practically to get that identification. he's known all over. is this a plus for him? >> that's very much a plus because he would about in with a hundred percent name recognition. he's got certitude and conviction, he believes something and says it, and that's what people are looking for. >> had are the negatives? [everyone talking at once] >> where do i begin, john? >> that puts family values in the center. i thinked have some explaining to do. >> couple marriages here and there! so forth. and. >> interesting stuff -- >> interview with his second wife, and she was charming and had wonderful things to say about him. >> maybe he can bring all the wives along with him.

>> as a matter of fact -- >> also john, when you run for president, have to fill out a very lengthy financial disclosure form, which he may not want to do as well. >> he's quite proud of his achievement and there's not much we don't know about him. >> but he may have within the first person to address sea pac with the phrase screwing us, but let's -- bottom line is the republican field is a hot mess. there's no obvious leader. each one of the major candidates. >> we're going forget out. >> huge baggage so it could make an opportunity. >> should trump run, yes or no? >> in the. >> independent. >> fine if he runs, he's not going to go anywhere. >> yes, the more the merrier. >> yes? >> no -- well, i don't care. i'm saying he's not going to get the nomination and he's not going to be president. >> besides that, he can't afford the pay cut. >> i think he should run but it will be a tough, hard slug. but he should run if he's -- about the whole

prediction, pat? >> oil heads over 120 a smile i'm with clarence, rahm emanuel gets his 50% in chicago in the primary. plus one. >> quickly. >> the unrest in the middle east will give a boost to the president bid of john bolton. >> and wisconsin governor walker with surge to the front ranks of republican hopefuls for 2012. >> right on! >> i predict the bush name will not be hurtful in 2012, jeb. it will be a plus. happy president's day! bye-bye! vogeico, committed to providing service to its auto insurance customers for over 70 years. more information on auto insurance at geico.com or 1-800-947-auto any time of the day or night.