>> "bbc newsnight" is presented funding for this presentation is made possible by the freeman foundation of new york, stowe, vermont, and honolulu. newman's own foundation. the john d. and catherine t. macarthur foundation. and union bank. >> union bank has put its global

financial strength to work for a wide range of companies. what can we do for you? >> tonight, our revolution 2011. yet it has changed our world and at that everyone of us. but mubarak, gaddafi teetering -- how will these revolutions produce what the streets -- what the people on the streets want, a new democracy? why has the choice in arab countries for decades been between as strong man or islamism? is there now a third way? we will look at today's made him in a divided libya. we will have our correspondents take on how the modern arab culture has changed in revolutionary ways. e hello.

good evening. the revolutions of 2011 are incomplete, but it changed the entire world, and the new democratic -- democratic impulse unleashed in the arab states have shown that strong men can be overthrown by arab insurrections. at as they affect all of us. in a special edition, we will examine what is the next step, what the democracies might look like, whether we will see and you islamic republic, and how a new generation of young arabs have unnerved every one of the democratic rulers in their region for decades. first, an analysis of revolution 2011. a work in progress. >> it began with a moment of terrible desperation in an

unremarkable town. driven mad by the corruption and brutality of local officials, a 26-year-old fruit seller douse himself in petrol and set himself on fire. the would have thought one family sorrow could be so subversive? almost overnight, he became a symbol of the resistance. in his defiance inspired others. suddenly, tunisia was in revolt. went to the president' his bedside, but it was too late. for all his might, the president was no match for the symbolic power the dying and then commanded. 10 days after his funeral, the president fled the country, the first arab dictator to be toppled by a popular uprising. >> it is unprecedented.

people go out in the streets and they topple the president. it was the people who toppled this president who came out and made three speeches, and each one he looked more scared than in the one before. and he just disappeared. we saw this elsewhere in the region as well. >> the shock of this involved the region. in algeria, rising food prices have already triggered protests. the arab world had been sitting on a demographic time bomb for years. to many young people, too many -- too many young people, too few jobs. it emboldened the pour across the region. especially in egypt. protestors were talking to each other and social networking website. they harnessed the democratizing power of the internet. on january 25, thousands took to the streets.

it suddenly, there was a confident new arab voice crying out for citizenship and human rights. as of the mubarak, in power 29 years, tried to cling to power, liberation square became symbolic for the resistance. egyptians had crossed of vital threshold. they broke through the fear barrier, defying the state brutality that had khaled them until now. >> we are egyptian people here. >> pro-government gangs also marched on the square. for a couple of days, there were violent clashes. this was an opportunity for the army to intervene, using the violence as a pretext to clear the streets. crucially, they did not. instead, the military chief said they would not use of force. the people, they said, had a

legitimate right to be heard. only one thing would satisfy the protesters -- the removal of mubarak himself. days earlier, it had seemed an impossible dream. on february 11, it happened. mubarak went. >> i hope the army takes us to democracy. egypt is a free country. we will never be beaten by anyone. >> when the special forces feel they have lost legitimacy, then the ruler realizes the kids are on to an. the change in egypt came when the security chief said team zebari, you're in a cul-de-sac -- said to mubarak, you're in a cul-de-sac. >> also and the tiny island

kingdom of bahrain, inspired by egypt, protesters made their own at a symbolic place of resistance. riot police. three died and hundreds were wounded. they had reached the fear barrier, tip. the protest went on. the government backed down quickly. on saturday night, the army and police quietly withdrew. the protesters took back to square, to demand an end to the autocratic rule of the royal family. >> we are living here and we will die here. we are not afraid. >> in libya, protests began in mid-february and descended quickly into chaos and brutality. security forces, many of them

foreign mercenaries loyal to colonel gaddafi, did not refuse to use force. many were killed. many deserted. the east of the country as under control of anti-gaddafi rebels. gaddafi himself made a bizarre television appearance tuesday he was ready to fight to the last bullet. it looked like a desperate last stand. his son, saif al-islam gaddafi, said the rebels would plunge the country into civil war. >> forget the oil and gas. it ready for chaos. >> each of the arab nations as autocratic and in its own distinctive white. there are unifying themes.

and egypt, president mubarak argued the only alternative was at the muslim brotherhood. in bahrain, the royal family used to argue the only alternative them was better, sectarian conflict, and in libya, saif al-islam gaddafi argued without his father, the city would descend into civil war. but in taking to the streets, the protestors have been given the lie to each of these narratives and made us rethink deeply held assumptions about the arab world and the kind of change that might now be possible there. the arab world is in transition. we know what it is in transition from.

but not yet what it is in transition to. but the relationship between arab leaders and the people they will over is fundamentally changed. who would have thought that the desperate self immolation of one man could effect so seismic shift? where the young fruit seller is buried, the main street has been named after him >> what is clear is the entire culture of the middle east has changed young people can access the internet. the new generation as angry and is not going to take it anymore. it has helped create and shape the new revolution. >> how do unarmed people defeat tanks that mercenaries?

craigslist torturers? how did they succeed when arab leaders have been given the task its seal of approval by democracies in the west? we're just weeks into the biggest upheaval the world has seen since 1989, and we do not know where it ends. but the social forces are clear, as are the economic grievances. >> we are tired. we are tired. >> mass unemployment is the reality for those who live in the slums and suburbs of north africa. the 20% use unemployment -- and a region where two-thirds were born after 1980. >> the urban poor community in egypt, and places where porcelains it existed, they played an heroic role against those who had engaged in torture over there.

police are largely -- police stations are largely regarded as torture centers in mubarak's english. -- mubarak's egypt. >> 20 years of globalization have to change the demographics of north africa. there is a significant working class. there are unions, often under state control. a few years ago there was a mass strike that should have been all warning to the regime. >> if you look at the events and 2008 -- this was not necessarily a working-class revolts. [unintelligible] it failed and they did not have them. who rebelled on that day? it was the urban poor who are

related by blood ties to the workers in the factory. remember the issue of class on in egypt. class distinctions are not that concrete. >> there was militancy among workers. what was needed was a spark. this came from another part of society. the sparks for these revolutions for networks of young and educated people. in egypt, the had mobilized for months on facebook. hear, in a virtual online university, a lecture from name -- from a member of the bush administration. >> we do not think it works very well to preach to people and tell them what they should think. >> others use the social media to contact the anti- globalization left in europe. >> and the case of twitter, it

is people having a dialogue. and when cnn or aljazeera or others pick it up, that becomes part of the conversation. should all saying we get to the streets. i am not the square. people started treating. -- tweeting. it completely flat as the social hierarchies. >> the workers, the poor, the left, the intellectuals have proved a counterweight to the forces of tribalism. so where does this leave the region of strategy consultants and arabists who failed to see this coming? >> because we live under the shadow of 1979, everyone is looking for khamenei.

there is no evidence at all. if you look around -- if you look at social discontent, the problems are very basic. people want accountability. they are not being tested and in this ideology. >> one idea has become a modern truism. that the small defeats the hierarchy, that the network of connected individuals can do what the old forms of collective action never dead. that databanks are developed for that idea. at this is just phase one of the revolution, phase 2 could see the forces of islam, militarism, and leftism on a collision course. >> we are entering phase two of the egyptian revolution. note revolution can happen without social liberation. -- no revolution can happen

without social liberation. the fear of economics and gender and minority rights and everything, every single fear that we have. >> we may remember the springtime of the arab world as the beginning of something much more complex. >> here to give us their thoughts on where this unrest may lead us, we have one of the unofficial leaders of the protests in egypt. we're also joined by the american philosopher and author. edberg do you see this as a big moment, a turning point in history? >> absolutely. this represents the mobilization of arab societies. there will be no going back from this. this is a 1989 fight a moment. even if it is defeated, it has

shown that society can be mobilized to this extent, based on the fact that it is much more modern and open to the outside world. this is something that arab rulers are going to have to deal with. i think it is very significant. >> and you? >> there is no doubt at all. it is an extraordinary liberation in every possible way. we got very accustomed, i think, to give revolutions a dirty name. stalin did that. cnn's where did that -- the springtime ideal of people, the idea that there is a community of citizen since -- seemed to be a fantasy. it is the middle east of all places. one should not be saying that, i know. i agree. there is no going back. it scrambled all the cliches.

>> people in china are looking at this and thinking -- hold on a minute. we can do this, too. >> i am sure they're going to be thinking about that. in fact, they control the internet much more tightly than the regimes in egypt and tunisia did. they've also been more successful providing employment and economic opportunity to their citizens. they can diffuse a lot of the anchor. -- anger. the same thing is going on in all of these authoritarian countries. dignity is trashed by a state that is arrogant and unresponsive. i think that is a pretty universal -- anger against that

is a pretty universal feeling. >> there are obviously no rules. and in some revolutions, when the bolsheviks took over, at the revolution in iran -- is that still a concern? >> it is. how many revolutions can we think of starting in december? none, pretty much. there is an amazing sense of springtime rebirth. and france 1848, february, march, and so on. summer is a tough time. the crucial thing to bear in mind -- this cannot be sustained without playing -- paying attention to social and economic issues. a lot of what motivates people right now, especially cents -- lest we missed the point -- there's a huge spike in food

prices creating trouble. the revolutionary moment presupposes this wonderful, but unrealistic optimism that votes and liberty will put food on the table. guess what? it does not. when does the disillusionment happened? this euphoria and brotherhood is not making anyone's life materially better. it is a danger when the hard man drives guns and tanks. >> i will come back to that. i want to come back to the question we raised there, which is the surge of media, the new social media. was that really useful for you organizing yourself, knowing you're not alone? >> it is all about the right to information. when you look at our state media and our press, it is very censored come a very biased, pretty much a lying machine that

only gives information the government approves of, which is not necessarily the truth. so, the social media played a huge role in getting information out and connecting with people to let them know about the protest and the social movement happening, and also to get information in, or something or somewhere where the state media and tv is not necessarily viewing. >> it seems that the arab psyche has changed in a way. no doubt and uncertainty is a good thing. people all other are thinking, we have a choice is it now never had before. brecht's absolutely. -- >> absolutely. people are rediscovering what it means to be arabic. they are proud to be eric -- arabic.

it is the pride of someone in a difficult place. i think that is profound. to the extent -- i would go particularly four libyans -- the voices of the people i know well have changed. the grip was on their threat, and now that is done. -- on their throat, and now that is gone. >> but that does not put food on the table. it may be great, but u.s. many months ahead of sorting out how to do things. simple things like intelligent graduates in egypt or tunisia the cannot make a living because they cannot get a job. that is not going to go away. >> alleges speak of libya specifically because of what is happening now. they are not expecting a

leadership that will hand them utopian demands. people are cleaning streets, taking care of the the own. >> just what you have been hearing there, does that fire you up when you hear it that sense of optimism we just heard? >> absolutely. this whole uprising has killed so many cultural stereotypes, that some of the arabs were different from other people, that they did not participate in the big wave of democracy in the 1990's. at think it shows that they want to be as much of the modern world, are as educated and aware of what is going on, as anyone in the world. >> there has been as stereotypes -- arab democracy, you cannot

have it. >> i think it is wonderful to have it refuted really. all the cliches about -- it is what the british used to say about india really. we cannot go, because they are not ready. exactly. it is amazing. the moment when a culture suddenly has the maturity, and neon light goes on. it is ridiculous. it is indicative of western presumptuous says, actually. >> you have heard that. arab countries are not ready for democracy. visions between different parts of the country. what do you think? is there an element of truth in that, is there? >> not really. this was at discourse that has been really happening over and over and over. from the west, we get it always. the western media always in

powering this oriental list orientalist orientalist stereotype. people at doocy the arab world is no different from any other -- have to see the arab world is no different from any other world. >> yes, i think it is a call for all of us to be more mature. arabs and the world. to be more mature about what society is and why can there. -- what it can do. there are important questions to be asked about the role of certain countries and helping dictators stay in power for longer. these are important conversations we have for us all to have. the sense i get is that people in the west are genuinely enthusiastic and happy.

>> i am incredibly happy. i did not expect to see this in my lifetime. i do want to say that, it is like getting new oxygen. of formless euphoria. we have to think soon enough about power. we have no idea. we simply think -- it is not an islamist moment. i absolutely think it is not going to be an islamist movement. you cannot give power up to twitter. you cannot do it. it could be a genuinely democratic. bright thank you very much. that is all from our special program on the revolutions of 2011.

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