>> tom: vinals thinks the global economy has gained ground despite slowing recently and he sees it accelerating in the second half of the year. >> susie: here are the stories in tonight's n.b.r. newswheel: the problems in greece took a bite out of oil prices.

with jobs still scarce and gas prices still high, consumers are feeling down. a new survey on consumer sentiment from reuters university of michigan shows a drop in confidence in june. the consumer sentiment index fell to 71.8. economists expected a higher more positive number. more evidence today of just how grim the job market is. the labor department says last month the unemployment rate fell in fewer than half of the nation's states. may's jobless rate was down in 24 states, up in 13 and unchanged in 13, showing job growth has stalled across much of the country. still ahead, tonight's market monitor takes on financial stocks. bernie schaeffer tells us if he thinks the year's worst performing sector is ready for a rebound. he's chairman of schaeffer's investment research. >> tom: exports have been one of the bright spots for the american economy, helping boost growth and create jobs.

but new trade deals with panama, colombia and south korea have been stalled in congress for months. that standoff may soon end. washington bureau chief darren gersh spoke with u.s. trade representative ron kirk. kirk also is the former major of dallas. darren began by asking why it's been so hard to pass these trade agreements. >> well, because you're in washington. and everything is, you know, everything is hard in this town. but the reason that we took the time to look at korea and panama and colombia, not just from the standpoint of what does it take to pass them, but look at them in the broader context, that what 95% of the world's consumers somewhere other than the united states, part of our success in the future is going to be linked to our ability to take more of what we make, manufacture, innovate, create here in the u.s. and share it with the

world. and so within that you've got to have a trade policy that not only speaks to those that say hey, pass these agreements, get going, we need the market access but you've also got to have a trade policy that reflects those that say we want to make sure our trade reflects our core values. particularly how you ought to treat workers. not just here but also around the world. and that passing the agreements with trade adjustment assistance gives us the best chance to have a balanced approach. >> right, but republicans use that trade adjusted assistance that helps workers that lose their job because of trade, they don't want it. they say that it's not an effective program. they want to pass these agreement was it. why is that such a priority for the administration. >> well, democrats on the other hand say trade has become an-- for shipping our jobs overseas. and the trades, you know, the unfair trade deals are the reason we've seen manufacturing, and they don't want the trade deals.

well, the reality in part of our challenge in this administration, what president obama tasks me to do is say we've got to find common ground. there's no way we're going to disadvantage american exporters in manufacturer by saying we're going to put us on less favorable terms in these markets that other countries are getting. but at the same time, we can't dismiss the concerns of those that have said honestly that a lot of americans through no fault of their own, that happen to work for an industry that may have been displaced by trade, they typically are 46 years old, anglo and the seoul breadwinner of their family. and they have good skills. and if we can get them the training, the coaching that they need, they can become reemployed. we not only save their job, we keep those families intact. and in many cases we keep those communities in tact. but really what this comes down to is how are you going

to do it how are you going to get this done because many of our biggest trade programs are on hold right now, have expired. how are you going to get this done and when? >> all along we have made a point. our goal was not just to pass a trade agreement. we're trying to build a new paradigm and a new rational to the american public that is increasingly skeptical about trade, about how we can do trade in a different way. and for us there has to be that holistic approach that you combine new market access through trade agreements with strong enforcement, which we've done at uftr and we reflect our core values at represented by our commitment to trade adjustment assistance. that's how you get it done. and we're closer than i think most people think we are. >> the president has set a goal of doubling exports but everybody else in the world has set a goal of expanding exports. everybody can't export their way out of their problems. how is it going to work. >> we can, it is work.

and the one good thing is you know the president laid out that parker two years ago and remarkably we're well on pace to meeting that. one of the things helping to drive our economic recovery is the reality that exports and only 13% of our gdp are contributing almost as much to our economic recovery as consumer spending. >> well, u.s. trade representative and maverick fan ron kirk, thank you very much for your time. >> huge pav ricks fan. thank you. -- mavericks fan. >> susie: a u-turn today for one of the nation's most powerful lobbys. a.a.r.p., which represents millions of older americans said it is open to modest cuts in social security benefits for future recipients. the group has been a leading opponent of cutting benefits. but a.a.r.p. now says it wants to limit any changes in benefits, while making sure the system remains solvent.

>> well, tom, it was a choppy week to be an understatement. and now investors have a weekend to think things over and start over again on monday. >> tom: start over again and of course always looking to europe over the weekend, really, for the clues that we're going to see on monday. but it was quite a day here today, susie. let's go ahead and roll with tonight's market focus. a mixed finish for the major indices for the second session in a row as investors balance the threat of european government debt against lower

energy prices. let's start by updating where the s&p 500 is in relation to its low back in march. that remains a key area of technical support and it is holding. buyers haven't fueled a bounce off that level, but the market has held above that march low. we mentioned the slide in oil prices today. this is what the past 90 sessions look like with crude falling to its lowest price since february. the drop in energy prices may have helped the broader market, but it hurt energy stocks. drilling company nabors fell almost 4%. oil producer hess dropped 1.5% to a new 2011 low. and equipment company national- oil well varco shed just over 1%. these were the leading energy stock losers. technology stocks also were weak.

google continues to see money come out of its share price, sinking another 3% today. this is google's lowest price since september. an analyst at investment bank raymond james reports paid online search spending is down for the industry. google's smart phone operating system android is part of the challenge for research in motion's blackberry. rimm stock got crushed today, losing more than a fifth of its value. this is the past 30 sessions. shares fell off the shelf today. volume exploded after a sour outlook last night. let's pull out to the past five years, showing this recent drop in context. it's below its march 2009 low, down to prices it hasn't traded at since the fall of 2006.

a couple of other big tech stocks that are in the dow industrial index. cisco sank another half percent. it is just pennies above its most recent 52-week low. the company has struggled with disappointing guidance as it tries to re-structure. cisco is the worst dow stock this year, down 25%. microsoft was the best dow stock today with this 1.2% rally. but it's also negative for the year. the worst stock sector this year is the financial sector, but not today. real estate service firm c-b richard ellis jumped more than 4.5%. tennessee based bank first horizon gained almost 4%. and zion bank from utah was up about 3.5%. according to the wall street journal, p.n.c. financial is the winner in the bidding war for the u.s. retail operation of royal bank of canada. on confirmation, but p.n.c. shares fell almost 3% on heavy

volume down to their lowest price since december. the journal also reports securities regulators are considering civil charges against credit rating agencies. moody's shares dropped 5%. parent company of standard and poor's, mcgraw hill fell 3.6%. there was a trio of new stocks going public this week, including two high profile issues. bankrate.com sold its stock today at $15, closing higher. internet radio provider pandora media started at $16. it's below that tonight. and oil and nat gas services company compressco partners began at $20 and slipped from there. and that's tonight's market focus.

>> susie: former washington mutual c.e.o. kerry killinger and other top wamu executives are in talks with the f.d.i.c. to settle a nearly one billion lawsuit filed against them. killinger has until to the end this month to respond to the f.d.i.c.'s complaint against him. regulators allege wa-mu executives took extreme risks with the bank's mortgage portfolio, which led to the largest bank failure in u.s. history. meantime, another former bank executive is headed to prison for eight years. catherine kissick used to head a mortgage division at the now- defunct colonial bank. she learned her punishment today. prosecutors say kissick's role in a $3 billion fraud scheme led to colonial's demise, as well as taylor bean and whitaker-- one

of the nation's largest private mortgage companies. taylor bean's former chairman and owner lee farkas is due to be sentenced later this month. >> tom: here's what we're watching for next week. our friday market monitor guest is alan lancz editor of the "lancz letter." the federal reserve will be in the spotlight as it begins a two-day meeting on tuesday. chairman ben bernake holds a news conference wednesday. monday, creating jobs during challenging economic times. we talk to state leaders about what the role of government should be. >> susie: some encouraging news the group's fear that higher food prices will hurt the world's poor who already spend as much as 80% of their income on food.

>> tom: the fight against medicare and medicaid fraud goes high tech next month. that's when the federal government begins using new software aimed at flagging would-be criminals before they get a check from uncle sam. medicare has awarded a $77 million contract for the new system to defense giant northrup grumman and a group of companies. they'll use technology similar to that of banking and telecommunication companies to spot fraud.

>> tom: greece, jobs, housing. there is no shortage of worries for investors and that may be reason to get optimistic. so says tonight's market monitor. bernie schaeffer is chairman of schaeffers investment research, publisher of the "option advisor market letter." always nice to see you, welcome back. >> thank you, tom. >> tom: it was january when you were here last and you said that the market was in a disbelief rally. investors just didn't believe that stock prices deserved to move higher. we're in essentially the same place in the market today than we were back in january. what about the market rally? >> still in disbelief. got another magazine cover from time recently, june 20th dated, talking about what economic recovery question mark, still no major and close equity mutual funds. something interesting here and now is that the market

is at a point, all the major averages are flat for the year. very often you find that when you reach a benchmark like that, just as we did in march, it is time for a raleigh. people look to come in at points like that. >> one of the places that has fueled this move back to flat is the financial space, the financial stocks are always seen as market leading. it's clearly lead the market lower over the past six weeks. it's the worst performing sector so far this year. are you saying it if the market can move higher from here that bank stocks will as well? >> i think the bank stocks are an interesting short. and an interesting put by, simply because you mentioned that people were looking at the bank stocks and people were bullish on the bank stocks. analysts are extremely bullish there are big fund planners in there. if the sector can't get out of their own way. >> are you bearish on banks. >> this is the hope that sectors decline on until you get the capitulation stage so i think there is still a good short trade shaping up

in the banking sector even though i'm bullish on the overall market. >> you are using markets to play the downside that you expect in banks looking at the xl, ticker symbol for the i shares, financial, here are the options trade, buy january 2012 at the money, the option to sell, a bearish call it profits if the exchange traded fund falls it has clearly fallen a lot already. and you are expecting it to what move into the single digits, perhaps? >> that would be a home run on this option trade but you know, even if you got a 25% decline that would be a very nice gain. and it's a good hedge for a sector that you might be bullish on. >> so noted. you do like consumers. and at least consumer stocks, specifically retail stocks. here is the s&p retail exchange traded fund. the xrt. are you looking at again january 2012 calls, a bullish call. an option to buy this exchange traded fund. if the xrt moves up at the rally, this option rallies

in price as well. what's fueling retail. >> what's fueling the retail stocks isind of the opposite of what the banking and financial stocks are having trouble with. the actual price action has been strong. despite the fact that wall street is very skeptical on these stocks and so what that means is, this is the wall of worry that bullish sectors and markets climb. it means that sideline money is being drawn in reluctantly but steadily into intersecters like retailers whose price action and earnings is positively surprising. and potentially out of sectors like financial where the results are negatively surprising and the expectations are high. >> that is your settup for the next six months. six months ago when you were here you had a couple options. let's look how these have turned out. you were essentially bullish on the i shares russell 2000 exchange traded fun, august at the money calls. the option price is down 43%

as the exchange traded fund essentially has gone nowhere. so time decay is what option traders called it. do you still like this. >> yes. and time decay versus leverage is the conundrum of making money in buying options. >> tom: meantime this one was a big strikeout. you lost all your money with the june at the money calls for the i-- s&p 500, vicks exchange trade note, essentially you were looking for volatility as a hedge. which has actually gone down in the last six months even though it ticked up lately in the past few weeks. >> right. and i would rather hedge sector to sector as we are talk approximating about today tdz so noted. what about disclosures. >> i don't have positions in the xlf or xrt exchange raided fund. >> narrator: we'll catch up in six months. nice to see you, bernie schaeffer, schaeffer investment research. >> susie: and finally tonight, the author who got kids and parents reading together has something new, but it's not a book. harry potter author j.k. rowling will soon unveil her latest venture and all we know so far is that it's called "pottermore" and it won't be a book.

the site has few details, but links to a countdown clock marking the days and hours until the launch. >> susie: tom, media watchers are speculating the big announcement will be about some sort of online "harry potter" experience. >> tom: we're not quite there yet for the harry potter books but we will be in just a short few years, susie. that is that's "nightly business report" for friday, june 17. i'm tom hudson. goodnight, everyone and goodnight to you too, susie. >> susie: good night, tom and have a great weekend. i'm susie gharib goodnight, everyone. we hope to see all of you again next week. "nightly business report" is made possible by: this program was made possible by contributions to your pbs

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