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america." >> and now, bbc world news. >> the headlines this hour. republicans in iowa are making their choice of candidates to take on barack obama. the votes are being counted. it is a three-way race between ron paul, rick santorum, and mitt romney. >> the two men hopes found guilty of the merger. -- murder. >> welcome to y"newsday."

but republican party supporters in iowa have voted on who they want as their candidate to challenge barack obama. results are still coming in, and it does seem to be an extraordinarily tight race. here is what we have so far. with 88% of votes counted, mitt romney has 24.5% of the vote. ron paul has 21.1% of the vote, and rick santorum has 21.6% of the vote. that means there are literally a handful of votes between the leaders. now this will culminate in the republican national convention in august, where the nominee

will be formally anointed. i am joined by a political analyst and author. thank you for joining me in iowa. we did not expected to be this close. what is your initial take on those numbers? >> my initial take is mitt romney is in trouble. he has lost boats from how well he denied in 2008. the fact republicans still cannot find a candidate, there is going to be some real trouble. >> he could still come out of this, and the front runner from iowa could still win. >> after spending millions of dollars and having a head start, he is still going to end up with the same numbers. 75 percent of republican voters did not want him, so that is not good for someone who wants to be a front runner.

>> is that what you are thinking? the former senator from pennsylvania, who has been campaigning assiduously in this state, does not have a lot of money or organization, but his efforts have paid off. >> he has been the road warrior of this campaign. he has gone everywhere, and its extent from squeaks of the lead, he is -- fifth he can squeeze out the lead, but it is too early to tell. >> let's talk about ron paul. he was the other candidate we were focused on. we have seen lots of young people turning out for his rallies. what did you make of his turnouts? >> ron paul has done well, but he does not see himself as a real candidate. he is a bit of a spoiler. >> i am going to stop you. ron paul is about to speak. let's hear what he has to say.

>> ron paul, ron paul! >> thank you very much. i think you might recognize my wife. her picture is on that cook book. anybody see that cook buook? thank you very much. what a delightful crowd. sometimes i say that was an -- sometimes people say that was a good speech. i say, that was a good crowd. we talked about and a.j. mentioned one of three tickets out, which is obviously true, and one of two that can run a national campaign and raise the money, but there is nobody else but has people like you who are enthusiastic and believe in something.

that is all the difference in the world. before i continue with any more comments, i want to bring forward three of our chairman and you met already. if stryker and david fisher would step forward as well as the chairman, and they have led the charge all the way through io was = = = -- through iowa. [applause] all i can think about in tough campaigns and all the hard work is the work you people do. it is unbelievable the energy you have and the efforts you have made, but what makes me feel good about it is you are doing it because you believe in something. [applause] you also know there are two good things. some people think you just do

that because you believe in something and want to promote a cause. absolutely, but what is the best way to promote their cause? and win an election. that is the best way. the enthusiasm has been fantastic. thousands have been involved and they are ready to go, but we have to look of the wonderful changes that have occurred in a positive way. the country has suffered in a negative way. the economy has suffered. our foreign policy has been a mess and drains us economically , and our military forces, but at the same time, our people have come together, and we have the task to reintroduce some ideas republicans needed for a long time, and that is a

conviction and none of freedom is popular. -- a conviction that freedom is popular. [applause] once again, we have had a fantastic showing for this cause and challenging people not the status quo we have been putting for decade after decade, but challenging them to go to this old fashioned idea, and it is a very dangerous idea. let's obey the constitution. [applause] too often, those who preach limited government and small government, they forget that invasion of your privacy is big government, and we have to emphasize to protect your personal rights and your economic rights are what the government is supposed to do. they are not supposed to run our

lives or spend our money. also, what we have introduced with so much a enthusiasm i hear so often from so many volunteers, somebody came up to me and he was a refreshing my memory. back in the early 1970's, nixon said, we are all keynesians, which meant even republicans except of liberal economics. i am waiting for the idea we can say we are all austrians now. the biggest change i think in intellectual and political change is the emphasis on important matter, making sure we get to the bottom of the bailout, and that is our federal system. we need reforms and a new monetary system and but obey the

constitution. this is something we made great progress, so the important step and we made, and there was a national poll, and they were talking about how many people support of the gold standard. how long has it been since they took a national poll on the gold standard? the majority of the people believe we should have a gold standard and not a paper standard. also, the great strides we have made has been on foreign policy, the fact that and once again we can talk in republican circles and make it credible, be aware of the military industrial complex, talk about the old days when robert taft said we should be engaged in these entangling alliances. he believed in the day he did

not even believe in nato. we do not need nato or the un to tell us when to go to war, but we have seen a great difference. the maturity -- the majority of the american people are behind us in this effort. it costs too much money. too many people get killed too many people get sick, and maybe 70% or 80% of the american people say it is time to get out of afghanistan. [applause] those are the issues and we have brought front and center. they are out there. they are not going to go away, and we have tremendous opportunity to continue this momentum. it will not be long but there is going to be an election, and this momentum is going to continue, and this movement is going to continue, and we are

going to keep going like we are tonight. tonight we have come out of an election, and we are essentially three winners, and we will go on. we will raise the money. i have no doubt about the volunteers. they are going to be there. a lot of you have said, you thank meat and complement mesa as, but let me tell you, and -- you thank me, and compliment me, but i have to say without your enthusiasm and we cannot do it. we want to do the job and present the case, and if

anything is not perfect, i worry about you and making sure you are satisfied. i think there is nothing to be ashamed to of and ready to move on to the next stop, which is new hampshire. [applause] >> ron paul, ron paul! i have another speaker, a special guest tonight. he has been with us for quite a few years, and you may have met him, but i would like to have him come out and say a few words. he has been serving in the military for 10 years.

a lot of it was in iraq and afghanistan. he was on tv, and he did not get a chance to finish his statement, so i would like him to make his comments about why he is fighting for the constitution and what he thinks we should do, but i would like to invite jesse to come and say a few words to you. thank you. [applause] how about ron paul? is there is any man who has had a vision for this country, it is definitely him. >> ron paul giving not exactly a concession speech and not exactly a victory speech. he seems to have come in third. he is the congressman from texas. he is a libertarian determined to balance the budget, and he

has a foreign policy if some republicans have had problems with. he wants to to bring the american troops home. he is more isolationist and some republicans are comfortable with. let's bring in jason. what did you make of what he had to say? >> he was not happy. it is like third place in pop idol. you're going to say something nice, but you are not happy with your position. he has to assume he was going to be a lot more successful than he did. he did not do as well as expected. >> he is a candidate who really did need to get a win. >> it is important for him to raise money. coming in third, he is going to end up with 3% or 4% of the vote. it does not help him at all.

>> i want to ask about the turnout, because some republicans have been suggesting they thought there was a lot of enthusiasm here in iowa before this process and they were going to see very high numbers. it does not seem to be the case. what you read from that? >> it is about the candidates. there is nobody who is going to galvanize the party. you have a small niche community that is very excited. rick santorum did not have a strong base. you have enthusiasm for the process and not for the people. >> what does that tell you about november? we may have learn more about of presidential election tonight than we thought we were going too. >> it means barack obama is celebrated. >> he is vulnerable. >> he is going to realize he might have a chance of people are that unenthusiastic about

the republicans. >> looking at the numbers, we do not have all of those. it does look like we have mitt romney and rick santorum very close for one and two. what is going to be the take away? >> if mid romney wins, he goes from saying, i am a front runner. it is time to support me. if rick santorum wins, all those who do not want to vote for mid rahm 8 say, maybe we can vote for someone else. -- for mitt romney say, we can vote for someone else. >> newt gingrich has not done well tonight. let's have a listen at what he has to say tonight. [applause] fax good evening.

-- >> good evening. we all know this 2012 election is about jobs and the economy. a know american demand candidate with ideas and solutions to rebuild the america wheel of a. -- the america we love. there is only one beguin nights -- reganite conservative in this election, and we just punched his ticket.

>> thank you, linda, and i want to thank linda miers, greg, my former colleague. they really held this together when it could have fallen apart. i want to thank everybody who worked all fall, particularly in the avalanche of negative ads. i want to thank the people of iowa. all through the negativity, everywhere we went, people were positive. they were willing to ask questions, and they wanted to get to the truth rather than the latest 30-second distortion, and it feels like this process does work. i am delighted to be here tonight, and i think we are at the beginning of an extraordinarily important campaign. >> [applause] >> the ultimate goal of this

campaign has to be to replace barack obama and to get america back on the right track. [applause] .et's be clear one of the things that came obvious in the last few weeks and i know what is that there will be a great of state in the -- in i know what is there will be a great debate in the republican party -- in the last few weeks in iowa is there will be of great debate in the republican party before there is a debate and with obama. rick santorum who waged a great, positive campaign. [applause] i served with rick. we have had a great relationship over the years, and i admire the courage, the discipline, and i also admire how positive he was.

i wish i could say that for all the candidates, but here is the key thing to ask. it is not just about anything obama -- it is about what do we need to do as a country to get back on the right track? that is a lot bigger than replacing one person in the white house. fixing the bureaucracy, resetting the culture common and getting the judge as to understand they operate within the constitution. we have to reestablish the work ethic and recognize we want to reward work and not redistribution. we want to reward paychecks, not food stamps. this is going to be an important national conversation, but it is not just here at home. we have to understand this is a major debate with congressman paul, who has done great tonight, and i commend him.

his views on foreign policy i think are stunningly dangerous for the survival of the united states, and i think it is a simple question, which i would be glad to ask congressman's. if you have a terrorist who is prepared to put on a bomb and where it as a vest and walk into a grocery store or a mall or a bus and blow themselves up as long as they can kill you, why would you think if they could get access to a nuclear weapon they would not use it? an iranian nuclear weapon is one of the most frightening things we have to confront for the future of every young person up here and every young person out there. if they are going to live in safety, they have to live in a world where there is no iranian nuclear weapon, period. [applause]

on that front, we will have a very important. is the world dangerous, and do we need to be strong enough to protect ourselves, or is the and it islly safe, lore just the americans that are confused. i have no doubt about 9-11. it was bad people trying to kill us. i have no doubt about the importance of the survival of israel as a moral cause we have to recognize for our future. we will have a great debate, and it is important for setting the new stable foreign policy for the 21st century. one other thing, and that is whether this party wants a reagan conservative who helped change washington in the 1980's and helped change washington as speaker of bauhaus, some --

speaker of the house or do we want a moderate who will be pretty good at managing the decay but has given no evidence of any ability to change the culture or change the political structure or change the government. [applause] let me be clear, because i think it is important, given all the things done in the last few weeks. we are not going to run nasty ads. goo[applause] i do reserve the right to tell the truth. it's the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on his record and then politics. this is going to be a debate in

new hampshire that will go on for a few weeks, and i am convinced republican party will take someone with a track record of changing washington. [applause] i want to say to the things, and i think you will join me. my dad was a soldier for 27 years. i would not have survived in this campaign against millions of dollars of negative advertisement if not for the thousandth of volunteers who up.wed o there is somebody who drove in four thanksgiving and said, i am saying.

people wanted to get america back from the right track. they were not from wall street. they have courage and work and were smart, and together, they survive the latest onslaught in the history of the iowa primary, and we set the stage. [applause] i want to say one last thing. we were in waterloo, which have the largest single site for caucusing, and a very distant relatives named craig gingrich spoke for me, and he was very kind. he got to know my younger daughter, and he would send what he was going to save. part of it was about his sons who just came back from serving in the middle east.

i would like to close with this. >> make sense of international news at bbc.com/news. >> funding was made possible by the freeman foundation of new york, stowe, vermont, and honolulu. newman's own foundation. and union bank. cracks at union bank, our relationship managers work hard to know your -- >> at union bank, our relationship managers ard to know your business. we offer solutions to small businesses and to major corporations.

what can we do for you? >> "bbc world news america" was presented by kcet los angeles. presented by kcet los angeles.