some cities that are strapped for money are cutting back on police but that can invite trouble. >> more police officers on the streets. they can't do it working overtime. >> to stretch their resources, police are turning to mathematics. that story on this edition of equal time. your watching equal time. welcome to the campus of san jose state university and this edition of equal time. i'm your host, journalism

school director. san jose is undergoing a spike in violent crime. bad timing since the police department is short staffed. residents and officials are concerned. >> this is our city. this is not the gang's city. [applause] >> some 200 people gathered in front of san jose city hall on this hot august night. this prayer rally followed 8 killings in just 11 days. >> my friend was shot dead in the middle of the day in the parking lot of the wells fargo bank. nobody came forward to help but a lot of people saw and heard things they didn't report. >> when you see something that's going wrong in your community, please call us.

>> as i look around here today, we've [indiscernable] -- and we're going to come out -- [indiscernable] >> his brother was killed august sergeant and says the city has a long way to go. >> i think so. i think people will feel more safe to speak out when they see more people supporting each other out here but i think there still needs to be more than just tonight for there to be a difference. it has to be a constant thing. not just a one night thing for us to have a difference on the streets. >> patrolling the streets, police are down in numbers. about 80 officers have re- signed in the past year and a half. many of them were jobs in other departments with better benefits. between budget cuts, retirement and resignation, the department dropped from 1400 to just over

1,000 officers in the past five years. there are plans to bring up two police academy classes this fall and next spring. in the meantime, the mayor's prevention task force is spending $800,000 in overtime. >> with a heavy suppression effort, got to arrest a lot of -- people and take a lot off of the streets. we have community based organizations to help prevent retaliation. >> how do you think these officers are going to handle these streets working overtime? they can't do it. >> what if fewer police can be used for some type of nonviolent patrol. bring up other officers to protect the people of san jose. when equal time returns, we'll explore new technology. >> it looks like it's going to work. at least it might offer some help. i'm cautiously optimistic.

>> we'll see what police are evaluating to make efficient use of the power on the streets of san jose. stay with us >> welcome back. we have seen how police in san jose are working overtime to respond to a spike in violent crime. there's simply not enough

police officers. but by getting a boost from technology, the department may be able to scale back from the number of officers assigned so some nonviolent crimes and put them where they are needed the most. >> in this building next to the main head quarters of the san jose police department, the traffic enforcement is evaluating a new weapon, mathematics. >> when you start looking at data in a different way you recognize this is an area we need to be in. >> he studies maps of traffic accident hot spots in san jose generated by a computer program that predicts where accidents will happen. >> if they work well, we'll basically get a map that will tell us now today this is where you want to be at this time. >> he puts officers on the scene where the accidents will occur. on this day, downtown off third

street, police say the key to data is patterns and hotspots. >> that's what we're really looking for. it's just ballparking it and saying well it's tuesday, it's 2:00 in the afternoon, probably this area. it's supposed to give us a much better statistical approach. >> san jose is the first city to try it. >> currently what we're looking to do is sort of judge the egg kansas -- ethicacy of it and see how it can be applied. >> in a city where over 40% of the killings this year [indiscernable] he says these will be used to predict gang violence. >> that brings in different

concerns about profiling and things of that nature. i think with traffic accidents they tend to be across the spectrum in terms of who is involved in them and what's calling them. >> saying prayers for safety for our children. >> back at the prayer rally where we started out. >> do you think it could help solve the problem of violence. >> well, predictive policing is an emerging technology and technique. it's hard to say. >> we're always looking for new innovations in law enforcement. particularly in times with fewer and fewer resources. so this is policing may allow san jose police leverage for resources and ultimately offices and areas where they're most needed. >> when we come back, another student researcher will join us and we'll hear from the former santa cruz mayor and police chief giving their take on

predictive policing. so stay with us welcome back. our focus today is predictive policing. let's meet our guests. >> hey, i'm the former mayor of santa cruz california. >> my name is rob davis.

i'm the retired chief of police here, spent over 30 year with the department. >> and i'm a reporter and i did all the research for the story. >> thank you for being here today. i want to be clear, what exactly is predictive policing. >> it's basically using the data that's collected about previous crimes and running it through to predict crimes that happen in the future when and where they will occur. >> your perspective is that it works. >> it absolutely works. any number of major city assistance cross the country have been extremely successful using it. >> very good. we're going to talk more about specifics but my curiosity is that of the audience. one of the things when i hear a definition like this is okay but using statistics is wonderful but human beings sometimes are unpredictable. so we put in a lot of eggs in the basket or how would you put

it? [indiscernable] -- >> as effectively if we can. if you're not using predictive policing you're wasting your resources because you're not putting those officers or those resources where you need them when you need them. make no mistake about it. it involves statistical analysis but it's also in the process of rolling out your policing. so your community yourself is involved. >> so you're counting on the public to help you. >> absolute line >> reporter: that's more than they used to. >> absolutely -- >> does that really work. >> property crimes were increasing about 20%. we put it in and it dropped 20% it's also developed by an anthropologist. so the funny thing about the question you ask is while human beings are unpredictable

they're remarkably predictable and the private sectors figured this out a long time ago in terms of figuring out what products and services we want to buy and now we're applying in the in the public sector and it's an inexpensive way. >> what are some of the concerns you noted or some of the things that people are concerned about. >> profiling, like if a neighborhood is seen as dangerous it's almost seen as dangerous. it's not police patrolling anymore but almost a police presence. and obviously, are these accurate? if you're policing place where is the policing isn't necessary to that extent, you're almost wasting resources. >> some of this can be used inadvertently to profile people and cause more problems than you really need? >> well, it can. one of the things we like about it though is if we send our police officers out and a

mandate from the mayor, reduce crime, reduce crime, a lot of police officers biases when they're under that brain and mandate. this is data driven. we don't take the ethnicity or racial background, this is about time and place. so we're taking that out of the equation and making it much more analytical than go out and stop crime which is the unusual way that especially in smaller town police force that doesn't have the analytical capabilities, that's the way the mandates come down on already overburdened police officers. >> would you aagreement yes, it is an issue that you have to pay attention because there will be times where in any given city the statistics may tell you go to this specific neighborhood to try and reduce this type of crime and then you find as a result of your efforts there may be an impact on a given sector or entity within your community. which again raises questions about well now isn't that

profiling then. which you have to understand, in the overwhelming majority, it's the residents themselves that are asking for that. remember, if we're using our resources correctly, efficiently, it is going to impact gang crimes. i can't tell you how many times we would go into a given neighborhood and the big concern was we're concerned about gang crime and we were able to tell them you don't need to worry about it. what you need to be worried about is x, y, z. so we wouldn't be putting our gang effort into that community but we'd be putting it somewhere else. at times there was an impact on certain in the city but when you peel away the onion, there were the resident themselves in those neighborhoods who are asking for the police resources because of victimization. people are being victimized the most, most people were the ones saying let's work together to

do something. we used our statistics to help drive our resources. >> you're not necessarily focused on profiling on them, we could be talk about college students and how they get into trouble at certain times during a break or holiday session while they're at the beach or whatever. we all know that numbers can be skewed and people can see numbers from different perspectives. but if the statistics say they do, you might be reacting in a way that is, to them, unfairly. >> we don't target any individuals. we target 500 square foot box by 500 square foot box that says this is where crime is likely to occur and we have 20 of those around the city. so to us it's let's send our police officers to those box during those shifts so they can

be there hopefully as preventatives efforts so we don't have to be in this deal or make any arrests. their present there is -- presence there is enough. or if they see something suspicious and we've had this happen where the police officers rolled up, there's a van and people sort of -- they saw a lot of activity in the van and went inside and sawed off shotguns, the whole deal. without that predictive policing box i'm not sure they would have gone out a way to enforce and make that contact. >> on the other side of that, you're using this data to almost -- what happeneds when they're wrong, when they see something suspicious going on and it happens to be nothing at all. let's say, like, you know, unjust arrests almost. >> well, i mean, i think the police officers aren't going to -- they are limited by rules about what they have to have

reasonable suspicion and probable cause. they're under the same rules they would be as if they were driving by on their way back to their police head quarters or on their way out for day. so the same rule assistance ply. but this is -- rules apply but it's a much more definitive area and time to work on. >> let's identify necessarily a type, first we could say for example, we've got a burglary problem, so computer, tell me on a tuesday morning -- any given day of the week, what day are we going to find it. it could tell us on a tuesday morning between 10:00 and 12:00, most of your burglaries are at this part of the city. it's just common sense to send our resources. not always to just catch people. you want to prevent it. if you're flooding with police officers then you know they will be there, they won't burglarize. it doesn't necessarily mean you're always going to make an arrest. you're trying to prevent and intervene when you can and

arrest if necessary. >> there is that saying for every action there's equal and opposite reaction. there's possibility more cities are fused with this stuff, would it give the person who is inclined to do something illegally an idea of what to anticipate? they know what you're going to do. >> remember, we look at this stuff on a real time basis. it can change. two weeks worth of data and could be something else. if somebody gets wind that we're consecrating our resources to a given area, we will find some place else with the on going physical analysis. >> and some crime, you can trade or gang activity can move, property time -- [indiscernable] -- >> it actually robs those people when they're there, when they're not there, when their lights are on. who has a dog and who doesn't have a dog. when you prevent those crimes it drives down the crime rate

rather than somewhere else. >> just -- it's predicting the number. people who are being burglarized the victims are the ones who are saying it. how does this [indiscernable] -- >> we're working with our community and identifying. >> i'm wondering if your resource -- just thinking about possibly moving this. >> i just saw crime at the leer level, theft, burglary but what about crimes that are more opportunity driven? there's not really an algorithm or something you can use to

predict it. so like is there anyway you can appropriate that or is it just going to be -- >> well, that -- what it said is -- every time [indiscernable] they're writing a report, they're taking testimony, they're going to court. they take them off the street to deal with these so you can't -- $44,000. you take that and allocate that toward preventive programs or park programs or youth programs, work toward putting more officers on gang or investigating murders you're going to have a better out put l are opportunities to prevent quote unquote crimes of

opportunity. for example, you give us the example where somebody may walk by a car and there's an open window so they steal the purse. our statistical analysis will tell us when is that most likely going to happen? here are the three shopping centers. here's the time of day where it happens the most. there's more of a opportunity for people to leave those windows open. so then we go out and do the education with the shopping malls and shopping centers so we get people to be visible at the time where there's more a likelihood they open up an opportunity. you can still impact the crimes of opportunity. >> i guess what i'm worried about is people are going to go to these places and these plans of opportunity but obviously if they know there's police there they're going to relocate or display -- what i'm worried about is not that crime displacement. >> what we mean is san jose does a great job of impacting it's burglary issue.

does that simply mean that people have fled around san jose? there will be some of that but it's not a one for one trade. you're still going to reduce it taking place. especially the crimes of opportunity. what about the more serious crimes? well, this effects all the murder and homicide investigation and -- >> if there's enough data, if it's happening enough then hopefully it's not happening. generating, but if it's happening enough to start to predict -- started to look at other crimes and property crimes, there's a predictive element to it and part of it -- human reaction it could be that a street light is out, that a building has gone vacant and is now attracting criminal activity.

if you get those and start working on some of the environmental causes that generate some of this crime as well. >> i'll give you an example. >> 30 to 40 hah%, maybe 50% of the homicides in san jose. now you can't predict where you have gang members come together at any given memo -- moment but if you know where they come together whenever you can prevent crime in areas or intervene with gang members you know that you're going to impact the fact that some homicide may occur. so you may not be able to say, hey, our computer is telling us we're going to have a homicide this thursday evening for gang, but if you're doing everything to intervene in general you drive down your homicide rate. they were way lower. you compare them to any other city our size or greater in the nation we're very, very low because we know how to use that

predictive policing model. >> how do we budget then in cities and communities around the area for this type of process. sounds like the statistical side of it has to be addressed but then you have a preventive program and you have a work force that touches base with those people. is this going to increase the cost of policing in our community. >> i think it drives it down. i'll tell you why. we started doing this back in the mid 90s. this is when gang crime was across the state. you cannot get out of a gang problem so you have to use your resources. fourth just the police department department resources, but your schools, your nonprofits, other social service organizations. we brought them to the table back in the mid 90s and said what role can all of you play? when you get other players from the community involved in this effort, you're reducing your cost as a police department. >> but isn't all bets off when

you have large groups protesting something or people coming into the community causing problems. >> sure, you're not going to be able to generate the data yet. you won't be able to generate the data fast enough to know but you can do a lot -- the power of this computing when you're pulling in a lot of different information is extremely valuable. one of the nice things about where we're moving in this. the big cities used to be the only ones that could afford this analysis. they could buy the big systems and the computer systems and have all the analysts. in the city of santa cruz, we now can afford this basically cloud based application that's very very inexpensive and gives us the tools that the big city has. >> we're talking technology. the world is moving forward. >> right now it seems that it's doing it cheaper so you can deemploy those to either spend that money on police officers or put more officers on the streets or have them work on different parts of the city. some of events and other

activity that maybe isn't as predictable. >> one thing i wanted to mention, that question also is remember it's not that you have to continue to add resources. not necessarily talk about hey we need millions more to do this. what you're saying is we have done something this way for many, many years and this is what we've got. if we're going to change the dynamic we have to use our current ricardo sources in a different way. it's not like you're saying i need 25 more police officers to go to predictive policing i'm going to take the officers i already have and i'm going to change what they do during their work day. maybe we'll pull some off and put them in a unit and leverage our resources but if you always do what you've always done you'll always get what you always got. they're learning how to do things differently. the work product we're get as good changes. so that's the dynamic. so it's though the about money necessary -- so it's not about money necessarily. it's about changing your business. >> it's redirecting your thinking and resources.

there are also those push back efforts. there are long time police officers, men and women who work under systems that they are comfortable with and they like and they don't want to change. they're not like the young folks that like to try things. is it reasonable to think this is going to happen quickly across the country. >> it was a harder sell in the 90s. when we first started doing this with the gang issues, we have police officers saying you've got an intervention program here. you hired people that used to be gang members and you want them to intervene with these gang members, we're not going to work with these people. change is always difficult but what happeneds is when you begin to see the results, when your crime rate starts to go down and your police department starts to get the way it changes and does business and you're solving crimes and preventing crimes the officers are realizing we're part of something different that's effective and we're on the cut edge. it's a -- cutting edge.

it's a difficult thing not to buy into this because of the success it had in new york and san jose and places like l.a. around san diego and other major cities across the country. when they see the success it's a difficult thing to argue against. >> another point that i have is i know this is technologically going forward for the police department and for safety but i mean, obviously, i mean, the criminals are going to be going technology forward too. it's like whenever somebody comes out with a software. there's always a hacker three like weeks later that comes into something to break into that. how do you combat them going forward in technology and crimes too. >> you'd be surprised at how savvy our people are. we talked about the newer generation coming in. the newer officers aren't fighting this so much. they want the gps devices in the car. they want the maps they can use gps on. they want the iphone and ipads and things to help them get the data on what they're doing.

we don't have a difficult time selling to the new officers. >> you have a generation that's going to help with that. thank you for being here with us and thank you for joining us for this edition of equal time