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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  March 9, 2015 6:30pm-7:01pm PDT

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report," with darl tyler mathisen and sue ha rer a. >> investors mark the fifth anniversary of the bull market. but will the run lose the cs-7. mcdonald's reports another month of weak sales. what the new ceo plans to do to improve business. >> credit relief why mistakes on your credit report determine whether you get a mortgage a student loan even a job just got easier to fix. that and more tonight on "nightly business report," monday shall march 9th. welcome. what better way to mark the sixth anniversary of the bull market one of the longest in history, than with a rally. stocks bounced back today, helped by a couple billion-dollar deals, much
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different from what we witnessed on this day in 2009 when the u.s. was in a deep recession housing had collapsed, and lehman brothers had gone under. fast forward six years, the s&p 500 has more than tripled since bottoming, led by consumer discretionary stocks. nine stocks have gained more than 1,000%. today the dow jones industrial average closed up nearly 139 points to finish just under 18,0. the nasdaq added 15 and the s&p 500 tacked on 8. we take a look now at the anatomy of the six-year bull market run. >> the bull market is six years old this month. time to celebrate or get a little worried? >> maybe it's a little bit of both. it's been an incredible run. march 6th, 2009 the s&p 500 was up 211%.
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most of it has been straight up. it's been a long run of 26 bull markets in the past 85 years. this is the fourth longest according to the "wall street journal." there are three reasons for this historic run. first, earnings have hit a record high as corporations have learned to cut costs and run more efficiently. buybacks have surged as corporate america has invested in their stocks at the expense of growing their business. and finally, there's the fed. no one knows how much higher the stock market is because of the fed's stimulus program. but no one, including the fed, doubts that this is an important factor in the rally. and that's the problem investors have now. the economy is clearly improving. but they're worried that even a moderate rise in interest rates or hint that the fed will raise rates anytime soon will end the rally. >> i'm worried that if for example, we go into the march meeting next week and they decide to take out the word patient, you see what happened
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friday with the first hint that things will move up. we'll have to see how the market reacts. >> there's a whole school who believe the fed who will not let things fall apart again. for "nightly business report," i'm here at the new york stock exchange. what's next for u.s. stocks. we welcome back john manley chief equity strategist at wells fargo funds management and senior portfolio management with morgan stanley wealth management. welcome back to both of you. you take the position that this may be a kind of pause year in stocks. why do you say that? >> i think three reasons. number one is the market has compounded at 20% a year for the last three years. and last t s the hottest product? it was the s&p index fund. i know it usually doesn't do well the next year. earnings estimates are coming
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down. that's a reverse from 2010-2011 when even though the market was dipping, estimates hadn't really revised down. i'm concerned about a decline in earnings. and then three, what did we learn last year about tapering? when the fed began tap erg, the market didn't do anything until the tapering was over. i think that's coming up this year as well. it's been a very strong market. stilts have come down. that worries me. and fed policy. >> you know, john those are some very interesting points but you disagree to a certain extent you're still bullish and you don't think we've kind of hit that enthusiastic phase? >> bull markets always sort of end with a bang. there's always a period of time when the market pulls money in and that hasn't really happened. i can't say that it's not going to be down 5% 6% 7%. the things that made it go up over the years, the last six years are still there. the earnings are down because of oil and the dollar.
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those things are rather efemoral efemoral. >> let me turn back to you, andrew and ask whether you think in light of the slowing of earnings the bull market is intact even if you believe it may be due for a pause, that refreshes. is it a pause that refreshes or pause that ends? >> no i think we're in a bull market. i think we have multiyears to go. i think the year will end up being a disappointing, albeit maybe positive but very low positive year for u.s. equities. for u.s. equities. i think it will be better elsewhere, but for u.s. equities i think it will be a low single-digit return year and it will be a pause, not the end of the bull market. >> don, what kind of returns are you looking for this year? and how selective do investors have to be in a market that has run so far?
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>> the main number that -- the single-digit number i don't disagree with. i think that's the best target high single digits. i think there's still that potential that people get really excited. how many corrections we had in the last three or four years, sometimes it's the boy who cries wolf. at some point the investors are thinking i'm missing something and they're skeptical of the skepticism. can't argue with overseas being more attractive, but it's still u.s. good. >> i want to turn back to your point about international being better target of opportunity. if you'd put money into european equities at the start of the year you'd be feeling pretty smart now. do you anticipate that europe is going to be one of those targets of opportunity, or when you say international elsewhere, are you talking beyond there? >> sure. look i'm a portfolio manager. i focus on companies, and the flaw of investing last year in
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europe was that companies were not really generating good earnings growth. and that has started to change and the big change was that the euro peak last may, and there tends to be about a six to nine-month lag between when there's a big change in the currency and when the earnings start to kick in. this year unlike last year the earnings started to accelerate. that's been the key problem for europe. yes, you have good european central bank policy but without earnings growth you can't kick start the stock market. i think that's the change this year versus last year. >> don, one of the things that the market's watching for very carefully is the next fomc meeting, whether or not as it was said in the report whether they take the word patient out and whether they move unon interest rates. you maintain even if they raise rates, that's not necessarily a tightening. >> it's tightening when they try to restrain the economy. when they set interest rates or policies in such a manner that will pull money out of the
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economy, and therefore, out of the capital market. i don't think that's going to happen. i think they may raise rates. that's just a recognition that the economy's getting stronger and we no longer need these extraordinarily low rates. they'll still be pushing money toward the economy. they meet less resistance when things get better. you have to adjust for that. i think there will probably be some change in the langu while it may cause a pause to a certain degree it's still a good thing for the u.s. markets. as andrew said europe is a couple years behind us. >> gentlemen, thank you for a thoughtful and helpful decision. and now to mcdonald's, which saw another month of worse than expected sales in the u.s. and gl the company, which is pretty much synonymous with fast food has seen traffic and profits fall. now the new chief executive is under pressure to turn things around. despite the weak sales reports, shares of mcdonald's did rise
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slightly. courtney has more on mcdonald's tarnished arches. >> the golden arches aren't bringing in golden sales. it may be the largest restaurant chain, but it's been getting attention for all the wrong reasons. the fast food chains worldwide february sales fell nearly 2%. just under half of mcdonald's total sales come from the u.s. comparable sales throughout the disappointing 4% in that key market and fared slightly worse in asia. competition from fast food and rivals increased prices off the higher labor and ingredients costs, and consumers' appetites for healthier alternatives are contributing to the mcdonald's sales slump. the restaurant has been working to regain asian consumer after food safety issues surfaced there last year.
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the disappointing sales trend cost ceo don thunderstorm son his -- don thompson his easterbrook took over as chief executive. mcdonald's executives acknowledge, consumers' needs and preferences have changed and say there's an urgent need to evolve. simpler and more regional menus are part of the plan changes. just last week the company said it would begin to phase out chickens raised with human antibiotics. >> this regional approach the quality upgrades also the technology stuff, that should help in the second half of the year. that's when we and i think the company, would be looking for them to get stability. at that point also i think you're going to get some help from refranchising, maybe some debt leverage to help shareholders get more positive. >> reporter: he said mcdonald's will continue to face pressure in the space. but the changes to come have made him more optimistic about
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the company's outlook. despite the silver lining he still sees a long road to recovery for the golden arches. general motors plans to repurchase $5 billion in shares by the end of next year. now, the move is part of the deal reached with an investor group that averts a proxy fight over the company's balance sheet, as part of the agreement the investor harry wilson will withdraw his candidacy for a seat on gm's board of directors. on a conference call this morning, the ceo said the balance sheet is strong and she is focused now on long-term growth. >> we believe we're in a position to move forward with this framework because we're executing ongs alli. we've made a lot of progress on the customer focused strategy. >> investors did seem to like the move. they sent shares of gm up 3%. now to europe where the european central bank's bond
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buying program began today. national central banks brought up their own government debt including german french italian and belgian bonds. the ecb's quantitative easing program is intended to prop up the region's sluggish economy. finance ministers urngged creditors to continue talks. some say there hasn't been enough progress on new policy measures. >> a top message given to the greek authorities by the other eurozone finance ministers. >> we have spent now two weeks apparently discussing who meets whom where, in what country, and what agenda. it's a complete waste of time. that's why we simply set up and talked about this long enough now, let's start on wednesday.
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>> they ultimately want to see greater details about the financial situation in greece right now. and talks behind the scenes haven't really started. greece needs to step up as far as greater reforms,. the other question raised by a lot of the journalists here was, what's going to happen as far as the consent. we know they have to pay the imf over 1 billion euros in the next two weeks. the message was very clear, greece has to withdraw itself. they're willing to be flexible but they want to see economic reforms implemented before they're willing to help. we're likely to see more discussions on this in the coming weeks. still ahead, some call your credit score the most important number of your financial life. and now, for the first time in a
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decade it may get easier to fix mistakes on your rep the nation's budget deficit will rise slightly this year. the congressional budget office said the deficit will increase $486 billion, slight increase over the cbo's last projection. that rise is a tributed to more on medicare medicaid and student loans. but they say the deficit will fall in the coming years. president obama outlined an initiative today that focuses on a larger technology force.
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he has commitments for more than 300 employers as well as local governments to train and hire software developers information technology engineers, and cybersecurity pros. >> companies like linked-in are going to use data to help identify the skills that employers need. employers like capital one are going to help recruit, train and employ more new tech workers not out of charity but because it's a smart business decision. all that this is going to help us to match the jobs to the worker. >> there are an estimated 500,000 job openings in tech related fields right now while wages in other fields remain stagnant. if you want to rent an apartment or apply for a job, your credit score matters. now it will be easier to get errors off of your report. the big three credit bureaus, equifax, experion and transunion said they will make it easier to change the way medical debt is
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reported. it's all part of a settlement with new york state's attorney general. ayman is fog this story tonight. did this come about because the agencies broke any rules or it's for something different? >> the agencies say they didn't break any laws here but the new york state attorney general is looking into their practices over the past several years. this is a story, sue, that could affect ultimately about 200 million people. among the changes now announced in this deal is the fact that actual human beings are going to be involved if you have a dispute over your credit report. that didn't necessarily used to be true. a lot of those disputes were reviewed automatically by robots. they said they're actually going to train people to review some of those disputes. if you have an error in your credit report that might mean it will be a lot easier to get it fixed. here's the new york state attorney general. >> the credit reporting system in america that we're addressing
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today suffers from inaccuracy. many consumers have to deal with incorrect credit reports, have life-changing errors that are far beyond their control. >> now, the industry responded through a trade association saying we're always looking for ways to improve our procedure and this plan will allow us to do just that. and guys the government says about 8 million disputes were filed with reporting agencies in 2011. so this new change will help a lot of those folks. >> let's talk a little bit about health debt. it's a big constituent for americans' indebtedness. >> a lot of problems people have with imbalances showing up in their credit report is due to the insurance company's delay in paying or disputes that the individual has nothing to do with. there's going to be a 180-delay
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before it shows up on a credit report. that could help a lot of people who are caught between the credit rating agencies and companies. >> ayman, thank you. >> you bet. alcoa is buying rti international metals. and that is where we begin tonight's market focus. the aluminum giant buying the titanium supplier in an effort to grow the aerospace business. >> why is this a good deal? on the one hand we are expanding all value in business. secondly we're expanding it in aerospace that is high growth. this year we believe the commercial aircraft are going to grow 15%. overall 5 to 6% annual growth rate. >> shares of alcoa offjust $30 a share. simon property group is
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launching a hostile bid for rival macerich worth about $16 billion, after saying macerich refused to discuss the confirmation. the activist star board value is upping to yahoo! now. they want a major overhaul there. they want to spin off its stake in yahoo! japan. shares there off 1% to $42.98. shares of whiting petroleum popped on reports that it is seeking a buyer. the search comes as the price of crude plummets which has taken a bite out of the oil and gas producer's results. shares moved up to $37-.71. a retailer sales were in line with consensus. the stock was up 1.5% to $39.51.
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qualcomm is returning cash to shareholders. the tech giant announcing a $15 billion buyback and dividend hike of 14%. the yield on that payout is about 2.3%. shares spiked right after the close. the stock was about 1.5% higher to $72.71. coming up what's at stake for apple as it unveils its much anticipated apple watch. gas prices keep climb.
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the average price of regular grade gas rose # 1 cents in the past two weeks. now sits at $2.54 a gallon on average nationally. still about $1 below where they were last year. baton rouge had $2.61. l.a. the highest, $3.48 a gallon. it is here the highly anticipated apple watch. apple unveiled it today at an event in san francisco, making it the first new category to be introduced under ceo tim cook. as you can see, shares of apple rose during the event, but then ended up 54 cents up more on the watch and why it is so important to apple. >> the apple watch is the most advanced timepiece ever created. >> reporter: apple ceo tim cook today unveiled the company's
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first new product category in . apple watch. >> it's not just with you, it's on you. and since what you wear is an expression of who you are, we designed apple watch to appeal to a whole variety of people with different tastes and different preferences. >> reporter: the watch is available in three collectio. apple watch sport, beginning at $349 apple watch collection available starting at $549 and apple watch edition, an 18 karat gold model with prices starting at $10,000. one potential problem for apple, it's competing in a crowded field of smart watches, but rivals such as motorola and lg. however, to date consumers haven't been too excited about smart watches, only 720,000 android wear devices shipped in 2014 according to research a firm analysis. but apple said its new watch
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isn't just a very accurate timepiece, it also lets users send messages read e-mails and answer calls right from their wrists. the watch is a fitness companion as well measuring calories and providing a snapshot of daily activity. the watch only works with an iphone 5 and higher. they think it could prove a big hit with apple loyalists. >> if you assume maybe 10%, 20%, 30% buy watches, you get into huge numbers. >> reporter: apple is betting if they compete and succeed in this market there's a lot of money on the line. the stock is up nearly 70% in the last 12 months. for "nightly business report," i'm josh the job site career blitz. out with a list of the ten happiest jobs in america. the company used data from 25,000 reviews and rated satisfaction on things like surp port and management. here are the results that may
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surprise you. third place, a loan officer. they work long hours but do help people realize their dreams. number two, an executive chef. lots of stress but the survey says also very rewarding. and number one, happiest people in their careers school principals. they may have to deal with some tough kids but their job satisfaction rating came in tops. >> i was surprised by that one, i have to say. that will do it for "nightly business report." this is the time of year your public television stations seek your support. >> we thank you for that support. and we'll see you back her
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