report" with tyler matheson and sue herera. >> split decision, the brightest minds in business and economic disagree on what the federal reserve will do tomorrow making the start of this meeting one of the most uncertain in recent memory. something's brewing. the world's biggest beer maker wants to get bigger. it won't have an' time getting there. >> expectations today, we learned the slowing global economy is taking a toll on a well-known flagship american company. all that and more tonight on nightly business report for wednesday september 16th. good evening, everyone. the great divide like few have seen before. some of wall street's leading economists, strategists and top money managers are spotlight on whether the federal reserve will raise interest rates when it

wraps up its two-day meeting tomorrow. the latest economic data may complicate further. consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in august as gasoline prices decline. that's the first drop in that index since january. but inflation is something the federal reserve wants to see more of, not less, making what happens tomorrow anybody's guess. steve liesman reports. set, down, hike. for the first time in the five-year history of the cnbc survey a plurality forecasts central bank will raise rates at the meeting. despise rising anxiety of global growth, 49% see the feds rising rates this month. of 15 economists and money managers that responded, 43% say it will come later with 8% unsure. >> we think it will hike, though obviously a very close call. they will try to soften the blow

talking about a very slow exit going forward. whatever the fed does, they do not want to create a serious shock in the capital markets. >> reporter: indeed estimates for the fund 37 basis points for the end of the year and a little under 1.2% next year. that suggests fed say hiking very gradually. there are concerns, probability of recession rose to 19%, third straight monthly gain and highest in three years, though still relatively low. number one global threat, overseas economic weakness. it's the reason most likely cited for the fed doing nothing. still, several analysts insist the market is ready for a rise. >> $46 billion come out of ebit, mutual funds, shaved off $5.3 trillion in global evaluations. part has to do with concern over slowdown in china and assumption fed will do something sooner rather than later. >> opponent of the hike say wages aren't rising, inflation

low, recovery tentative and global weakness will hurt u.s. economy. instead of a hike, they think it's better for federal reserve to call a time-out on raitsing rates. for nightly news report i'm steve liesman. >> our guests tonight have very different views what to do david kelly chief global strategist at jpmorgan funds. he believes the feds should have raised rates a long time ago and ought to do it now. jeff fineman, he thinks the time isn't right just yet. he wants the fed to stay put maybe until the end of the year at least. gentlemen, welcome. josh, it's not that you think the feds should not raise interest rates, it's just that you think they need a little more data before they do. right? >> yeah, i think we're getting close. the economy made a lot of progress, feel a lot of damage from the great recession. i don't think we're all the way there yet. i think that said we'll probably want to wait a little bit longer

to get a little more confirmation that their outlook is holding prudent person. >> what more data do they need? >> a little bit more sign their growth forecasts are coming to pass, that the markets making a little more progress. also, the recent volatility in rising markets and rising global risks is not damaging growth prospects here. >> what about that, david? i know you think they should have raised rates some time ago. we still do in many parts of the world have very fragile economies. >> we'll also have a problem somewhere, but the federal reserve should focus on the u.s. economy and the u.s. economy has an unemployment rate of 5.1%. the 50-year average for unemployment is 6.2. 1.8% year over year, healthy economy and in no way justifies 0% interest rate policy. they are just so far from neutral that they need to get going. >> josh, let's turn back to one of the points you made about why you think the fed will and

probably should hold its position for a little while longer. that is global market stability. i believe david would say, well, are we now saying that the fed is -- one-of- its missions is to keep the market stable as well as managing price stability and the labor market? >> no, i wouldn't go that far. of course they have to take into account impact financial conditions might have on the economy. i think more importantly we've made a lot of progress. the unemployment rate is low for sure. i don't think that tells us the full story. i think there still is slack remaining in the lab market. admittedly a lot less than there was. i appreciate monetary policy is accommodative and you don't want to wait until all the slack is gone before you start going. but i think that waiting a little longer would still afford the fed the opportunity and latitude to move slowly rather than having to move too quickly. >> so david, let's say they do what you think they should do

and they raise rates. is it one and done for the rest of the year or is this the first of a number of rate increases that might come closer together than some people think. >> i think initially it might be one and done for the year. i think they should skip object. they have said they would go more slowly, normally raise 25 basis points at each meeting. they will skip a meeting anyway. it's possible at our news conference tomorrow indicate we'll wait until 2016 to see more data here just to further reassure markets are going to be very slow. frankly, since i think they are way behind the curve, going slow will make them further behind the curve. i don't think they should commit themselves doing it but i think they do. >> answers from first david and then josh. where do you think the funds rate will be a year from now. >> i think pretty low maybe around 1% or so. david. >> i think it will be about 1

1/2. i think four rate hikes next year, maybe two this year or mib just one. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. we'll know a lot more tonight. david kelly jpmorgan, josh fineman. a critical component of the economy is the housing market. today a new report shows builders are the most confident they have been since 2005. the national association of home builders said prospective buyers rising thanks to lower mortgage rates and lab market. it wasn't all positive. the outlook for sales over the next six months fell slightly. >> outlook for global economy weakened slightly. economic cooperation and development says recent weakness in china outweighs strength in the u.s. the research group also says the health of the u.s. economy justifies a rate hike by the federal reserve but that overall global growth will remain subpar this year. >> american household incomes fell last year and the poverty rate inched higher. according to the census bureau,

median income was around $53,600 last year, down from $54,400 in 2013 and more than 6% lower than in 2007. the poverty rate rose to 14.8% last year from 14.5 in 2013. some say those new numbers show the economic expansion has yet to be felt by many americans. >> stocks rally for the second session in a row ahead of tomorrow's big fed announcement. gains in oil prices feel the move higher in the energy sector which help push overall market higher. dow jones industrial up 140 points to close at 16,739, nasdaq 28 points higher and s&p 500 logged a 17 point gain. crude closed 16% higher on a report u.s. inventories fell for the first time in weeks. a massive deal may be brewing that would combine two of the biggest names in beer. budweiser and miller. anheuser bush approaching sab

miller about a possible takeover and that sent shares of anheuser bush nearly 7% higher in today's session. sb miller trades overseas. while no deal is done, such a combination would be one of the largest acquisitions of all time. as hampton pearson reports, it will face a number of big hurdles. anheuser bush inbev wants to take over its chief rival, london-based sab miller to form a beer giant that would brew about a third of all the beer consumed around the world. market cap for the merge group estimated at $275 billion with $69 billion in annual revenue. >> they are having a really hard time holding market share. they are losing in their big brands and they don't have enough high end to keep the growth growing. so we're now at a point where they need another transaction to do what they do best, which is slash costs. integrate businesses.

i think that's why sab now makes sense to them. >> the clock is ticking because under british regulatory rules inbev has 28 days to make its offer. initial approach to sab miller's board, there can be no certainty this approach will result in an offer or agreement or as to terms. from s affirm b miller a cautionary response. the board will review and respond as appropriate to any proposal which might be made. >> antitrust regulators in the u.s. and europe would closely skrcrutinize the deal because i accounts for three-quarters of the u.s. beer market. estimates from both firms expected. >> not a hope held they would be allowed to keep miller coors business given them a 40% share of the beer market at sab right now. there's just no question there will need to be a sale of that business in sab, ab takeover.

>> beer making giants facing increased competition from craft beers especially popular among millennials here in the u.s. production for the first half of the year is up 15%. >> competitively major brewers are losing market share. you look at the two big ones in the united states are anheuser busch inbev and coors between sabmiller. they are losing barrels. >> finalizing a deal between the two rivals won't be easy. questions about board representation and financing must be resolved. in washington, hampton pearson, nightly business report. >> got to love that standup at the bar there, hampton. still ahead, the message president obama sends some of the most influential business leaders in the country today.

>> fiat, chris leer and united auto workers reached an agreement with wages and health care costs. the proposal keeps both sides competitive. chrysler said the deal will bring workers, quote, more significant benefits. neither side disclosed details of the agreement which covers nearly 40,000 workers nationwide. if the terms of the deal are ratified, it will lay the groundwork for negotiations with both general motors and ford. today in washington president obama urged chief executives of some of the nation's biggest countries to pressure congress for a budget plan and avoid government

shutdown. spoke to business roundtable, a group that generators in total $7 trillion in revenues. as we told you last night a potential closure of the federal government is one of the biggest concerns of the leaders of that group. ayman jeffers. >> reporter: part of the standard playbook. over the past several years, we've seen it again and again. when he wants to pressure republicans on capitol hill he turns onallies in the business community as you say the business roundtable and urges business to make his case up on capitol hill. he says he does not want to see a government shutdown over an issue if they don't come together on a deal. here is how the president made the sales pitch today. >> two years ago republicans shut down the government because they didn't like obama care. today some are suggesting the government should be shut down

because they don't like planned parenthood. that's not good sense and it's not good business. the notion that we play chicken with an $18 trillion economy and global markets that are already skittish all because of an issue around a woman's health provider that receives less than $0.20 out of every $1,000 in the federal budget, that's not good policymaking. >> but guys, with the rise of donald trump and the campaign trail among republicans, the question now whether the business friendly strategy of leverage by the president will really work. a lot of anti-establishment republicans on capitol hill are really energized by the trump campaign and they may be in a mood here to kind of stick it to the establishment republicans on capitol hill. so this strategy may not be as effective this year as it's been in the past. >> you mentioned donald trump. the meeting with the ceos came on the same day as the debate. the president did take a shot at

donald trump. >> absolutely. he turned trump's own slogan on its head talking about america winning or not. take a listen to what the president had to say. >> despite the perennial doom and gloom this i guess is inevitably part of the presidential campaign, america is winning right now. america is great right now. >> that coming just hours before the big gop presidential debate this evening and we'll see if any of the republican candidates latch onto that rhetoric tonight, guys. >> ayman, thank you. from the machine in the white house talking about the economy to those who want to be in the white house. tonight republican presidential candidates, as we mentioned, will take the stage for a debate in the ronald reagan presidential library. there are many economic issues that will likely be discussed. john harwood is there for us. john, which candidate is most likely to come off the strongest when it comes specifically to

the economy? >> reporter: well, they are all going to try, sue. you've got donald trump the front-runner saying look at the business deals, look at the real estate empire i've built. i can run the economy best. carly fiorina will say i was ceo of a fortune 20 company at hewlett-packard, i know what to do. all the governors and a couple of senators on stage are going to be saying, no, i have the solution. if it's rand paul it's going to be his flat tax. marco rubio, his different tax reform plan. people like chris christie, scott walker, jeb bush are all going to be claiming they added jobs and balanced budgets during their tenure. >> which of the candidates, john, has been the most granular about taxes or entitlement reform? >> well, not donald trump, i can tell you that. donald trump has not been heavy on policy so far. but interestingly i sat down with carly ffiorina, who is the new candidate on the stage

having graduated from the table debate last time and asked her specifically where she stood on entitlement and on taxes. >> republicans have been talking about this forever. i'm not in favor of revenue neutral taxes, i'm in favor of revenue reducing taxes. how long have we been talking about entitlement reform? we talk about it every election, we talk about tax reform. nothing happens. binders on great conservative ideas on how to reform social security entitlement. we will never get to it because the political class can't challenge the status quo or ever get to it. >> do you think privatization is a useful structural reform to make or would you not do that? >> i am not prepared to go to the american people and talk about how we're going to reform social security and medicare until i can demonstrate to them that the government can execute with excellence, serve the people who pay for it with excellence. >> now, that is a dodge worthy of a very good politician.

>> it's not a dodge. i am deadly serious. >> as i suggested, guys, in my final back and forth with her, that is an invasion that shows carly fiorina belongs on that debate stage with the politic n politicians. >> john harwood in simi valley, thank you for joining us. >> oracle, mixed tonight profit beat expectations but revenue came up short. the software giant saw a big decline in licenses if cloud computing disappointed. stock was volatile in initial after hours trading as you see on that chart. in the regular session skhars up a fraction to $28.37. investors getting a chance to react to news microsoft has hiked its quarterly dividend. the new payout $0.36 a share, up $0.0 a 5. shareholders as of record november 19th. the heightened dividend puts the yield on microsoft shares up 3%. the stock was up slightly at

3430. cracker barrel posted earnings that topped estimates higher menu prices, sales missed consensus which weighed on shares like a double order of biscuits and gravy, bottom of the barely, finished at 145.59. fit bit securing huge corporate deal with target. will offer trackers to more than 300,000 employees. that is one of the largest corporate deals the company has ever secured. showed fitbit popped. williams up in today's session, energy transfer equity close to winning a takeover fight for rival pipeline operator. shares rose more than 5% to 45.86. expedia won antitrust approval to buy orbitz. they did not require any asset sale for expedia in exchange for approval. shares rose, expedia 5% higher

to 12468. global slowdown did damage to one company, fedex lowered its earnings outlook citing weak economy, slower demand and strong dollar. that was enough to pressure the stock which fell nearly 3%. morgan brennan has more on the company that many consider an excellent barometer to assess the global economy. first quarter earnings at fedex increased 20%, but that stell fell short of estimates. the delivery diet guidance on weakening global economic conditions and one-time expense in the ground domestic unit. that sent shares tumbling putting stock even further in the red for the year. freight less than truckload shipment which include a lot of industrial goods experienced weaker demands. but as the company continues to restructure express, earnings growth in that segment soared 45%. analysts say longer term, the company is still on track. >> well, they were very clear to point out that the revision down

in the full year guidance, a mere 2%, $0.20 off $11 number was based on the increase in an insurance accrual, that while they have some uncertainties about the global trade, especially manufacturing economy, that the consumer economy continues to show growth and ecommerce continues to show growth. >> up next for parcel carriers holidays. executives on earnings call said they expect another record peak shipping season. the company plans to hire upwards of 55,000 temporary workers, 10% more than last year. this after ups said it will hire 95,000 in line with 2014 in an announcement yesterday. fedex executives also discussed newly announced rate increases. starting in january rates will rise nearly 5% in all of its divisions. but the company also plans to add a new surcharge to oversized ground packages starting in november. as more companies elect to ship these bulky, heavy packages rather than handle them in their

stores, fedex is looking to be better compensated. >> i think the change in pricing will improve yield and improve efficiency. so there won't be as many pillows of air shipped, there's more product being paid for to be shipped. >> avondale partners continues to rate fedex a buy with a price target of $200 per share, a 35% increase from where the stock is currently trading. fedex one of the most bullish from transportation analysts on the streets. for "nightly business report," i'm morgan brennan. coming up, under armour's ambitious strategy to catch up to the market leader nike.

here is what's what happened foemt. despite fed announcement, lots out, housing starts, weekly jobless claims and philadelphia reserve will release business outlook survey. that's what to watch thursday. >> general motors reportedly close to a criminal settlement with justice department over defective ignition switches linked to more than 100 deaths. as part of the settlement which will require court approval general motors would pay less than the $1.2 billion toyota paid to resolve a similar case. gm would be charged with hiding from regulators and defrauding consumers. under armour is setting big goals for itself. the sports apparel company says it expects reven to double over the next few years. that sent shares higher closing with a 5% gain. sarah eisen spoke with ceo at the company's investors day where he pulled out his company

to even closer to rival company nike. stefan curry, tom brady, jordan spieth, like so many athletes sponsors the company is on fire. they are announcing raising long-term sales projections. >> at under armour, it's important we define victory before we start anything. our definition of victory we look at 2018, next investor goal we'll give you is that we believe that we will be a $7.5 billion company by 2018. i want to be clear of one thing. this is not our finish line. >> while it's an ambitious goal, still a fraction of what nike makes each year. >> we're not out there -- we don't need anyone else to lose in order for under armour to win. we're incredibly focused on ourselves, where we're heading.

>> the industry is booming. at a time when consumers are spending less on clothing, sports apparel is the bright spot. >> sport footwear is up in the high single digits for the year. we've been in a period of growth of mid single digits in athletic footwear for more than a decade now. so we continue to see this category growing. you have whole generations of kids who have done nothing but wear athletic apparel and footwear. they want to continue to do that. in 2014 under armour did $3 billion in business, nike added $3 billion to their business in the same year. so as nike continues to grow, i think it's going to be hard for anybody to catch up to them. >> many compare under armour strategy to its rival nike signing top players, expanding its sports portfolio and going global. but there is one key difference. nike started as a sneaker company while under armour's roots are in apparel. another key, digital strategy, connected fitness. more than 150 million people

have signed up for the app which tracks everything from how you sleep to how you eat to how you exercise. that is set to drive $200 million in revenue by 2018. for "nightly business report," i'm sarah eisen in baltimore. that does it for "nightly business report" for tonight. i'm sue herera, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for me as well. i'm tyler matheson. have a great evening, everyone. we'll see you back tomorrow on fed day.

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