♪ john: from -- >> from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over three decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. john: issue one -- debate or derision? cruz: you look at the questions, donald trump, are you a comic book villain? ben carson, can you do math? john kasich, will you insult two people over here? marco rubio, why dont you resign? jeb bush, why have your numbers fallen? john: senator ted cruz, one of 14 g.o.p. presidential candidates, satirizing the questions in wednesdays cnbc 2016 republican presidential debate, held at the university of colorado, in boulder.

but get this -- the debate lasted two hours -- apparently only because of an ultimatum! trump: i have to hand it to ben. we called ben, he was with me 100%. we called in, we said were not doing it. they lost a lot of money, everybody said it couldnt be done, everybody said it was going to be three hours/three and half including them, and in about two minutes, i renegotiated it down to two hours so we can get the hell out of here! not bad. [laughter] john: question, what do cruz and trump have in common? pat: there are both unapologetic individuals. they talk back to political correctness. they like to fight, outspoken. they take a strong stance. they have great appeal, the so-called middle american radicals, a major movement in america over the years and i think the two of them -- both were winners in that detective

partly or almost entirely because of the stuff tough stance they took. eleanor: trump has been courting cruz and cruz have been -- hob courting trump really in the beginning. they're like two people in a bicycle race. trump is in the lead and cruz is right behind him ready to take never case trump should failed. which everyone expects at some point. cruz is a national recipients. he has a lot of money, big done others. he has a structure he's put in place. he actually has a plan -- to win the presidency. i think he's been underestimated until this debate. he even showed a sense of humor, which softens that hardline dracula image that he's perfected on capitol hill. he's the one to watch, especially if trump does begin to fade although there's always

the possibility trump doesn't fade. pat: i agree with everything eleanor said. are: let's talk about facts thed. votes ssed 3.3% of the during his 2008 bid. pat: you're talking about the jab at rubio. john: graham was absent for 37% of votes during his short-lived campaign. pat: you're talking about rube o's -- rubio's shot at jeb bush, which was enormously successful. clarence: although i don't know of anyone whose vote has turned on the record in the senate. eleanor: senator rubio said recently people who work for the virginia, they should be fired

or quit. it's a little hypocritical. tom: that's a fact that jeb bush is very, very concerned with marco rubio. and that jeb bush did not have a good debate. he seemed lackluster and his challenge to rubio didn't work. and rubio is playing off that. the bush campaign is in crisis right now, no question. pat: i think jeb bush has got to take down rubio soon. my guess is you'll see attack ads from super pacs and things like that. you're right. those two are in the same lane and only one is going to make it to the finals. eleanor: but bush shouldn't be doing that personally. it's foot in his name. the media is going to start going after florida. his record in florida, and absence of doing anything in the senate, aside from not showing up for votes.

pat: my prediction, the establishment is going to move to rubio because he's the one closest to them with the best shot of winning it in the long run. john: ohio governor john kasich. mr. bush wasn't the only one throwing punches. kasich criticized ben carson and donald trump. >> we're going to just have a 10% tithe and that's how we're going to fund the government or that we're just going to be great or shim 10 million people out of this country leaving their children here in this country and dividing families? folks, we have to wake up. john: governor kasich tried to position himself in this detective as a voice of reason and experience and a reformer. will it be enough to keep him in the running? tom: i don't think so. look, i think john kasich does bring a lot to the party in terms of challenging, make

points that are difficult for some people to suspect but i -- but i suspect he's saturated out and i don't think he can puncture his way in eleanor: a high-performing governor of ohio. no republican has won the presidency without ohio. he's got a path to the number one or number two spot on the ticket. clarence: he's going to lose the idea of run for vice president. which is too bad. i was watching kasich and he reminded me of jimmy stewart in "mr. smith goes to washington." john: he played the role. jimmy stewart. finish the point you were make something eleanor: yeah, i think kasich basically kicked the door open for criticizing of the field then he kind of backed away and other candidates walked through it.

i thought rubio and cruz did better. pat: kasich's problem is, very smart, capable. he'd be an excellent budget director, excellent cabinet officer. he's too angry and too hot for television. it is not cool. came off as too angie with these folks. why can't he point it out with a sense of humor? clarence: a little desperation is showing. john: if my memory is correct and, of course it is, i recall that on two of the post-debate collections of journalists having a drink and talking to each other in gatherings after the detective. large gatherings, the number that came up as number one was john kasich. do you remember that? tom: he's a moderate so people would want him to represent more of the rental brand but i don't

know how he gets past rubio. eleanor: there are several more debates. there's still time here. it's too early to pronounce any of these candidates as dead and gone. john: you mentioned rubio. we can go to medicare and social security with rubio. >> we're talking about reforms for future generation. my mother is on medicare and social security. i'm against anything that's bad for my mother. john: any thoughts on that? pat: what marco rubio is doing, as opposed to chris christie who said we're going to have to cut entitlement growth. marco rubio was saying all you folks getting social security and medicare, i am no threat to you. we'll maintain and it look at reforms down the road, which politically is the right position to be in whether it's

the most responsible, i'm not sure. clarence: but he is working against in image that he's this kid who would threaten my security. hey, i have a mom, i wouldn't urt you, blah, blah. tom: that's the only way to do it. eleanor: even chris christie is not going to go after current resim yenlts or anything like that. this was supposed to be an economic detective. i didn't hear much. they all trotted this fantasies about a flat tax. pat: you're right. where is the transpacific partnership, trade deficits, q.e. 3? except for auditting the federal reserve. john: they talked about the tax code and i have it here. marco rubio and burke and chris christie. previously proposed cutting current tax rates to 8% to 35% depending on the bracket with various reforms to marriage and

child credits and capital gains, corporate and estate taxes. candidates like ted cruz, ben carson and rand paul said they support replacing the current tax system with a simpler form of a flat tax. pat: they were but nothing like that is ever going to get through but they all have their tax plan. the major succumbing up ask the transpacific partnership trade deal. derby is against it, frump is against it. a real conflict there and a great issue. they didn't even bring it up. eleanor: even their tax plans all highly reward top earners where the big challenge facing the country is income disapartment. i don't think anyone wants more trickle-down economics. clarence: at one point their plans don't work. ben carson was told your flat tax or your tithing tax is not

going to pay the bill. oh, yes, they will. tom: yes, kasich was right to point that out. but at the same time, look, with hillary clinton's plans, with the expanding state, with more spending. at some point you to have tax at lower levels. if interest rates go up because of that pressure -- let's have a mass debate and that's why i think paul ryan is good. pat: they have a flat tax and they're talking flat tax because politically that has enormous appeal to the republican base and the entire republican party. supply siders, and pop lewis. that's why they have six flat taxes. john: mike huckabee, he called these plans, the tax arrangements that were mentioned here and you've tried to discuss. these plans are "putting lipstick on a pig." and told cnbc he would promote

replacing income tax and the end of the i.r.s. with a higher sales tax. what do you think of that? tom: honestly, i'm happy for huckabee because this is the guy -- i don't get it. he has very little credibility. and i would prefer that we had a system where the tax code is massive live -- massively simplified and more efficient. you can have lower rates and a bit for revenue. you cannot just have a sales tax. that would kill poor people in america. pat: you could put a 20% tariff on all imports and eliminate the corporate tax. why didn't somebody ask trump, you seem to be a protection analyst. would you do that? ask the others what they think. eleanor: i don't like to criticize my colleagues and

journalists. pat: go ahead. john: feel free. eleanor: you don't want to just give them a forum to present their stump speech. again, this was supposed to be an economic detective. they should have drilled down on economic issues. if they did a round of everybody where what that i thought of the federal reserve, we might have heard solid information. there were ways to elicit information. pat: fantasy football. should be regulated. clarence: that's a regulation issue. they didn't answer the question anyway. tom: we actually should have had eleanor and clarence there because those moderators there were asking -- there was an arrogance, right, that they wanted to make it a -- and they didn't care. clarence: the worst moment of the evening i thought was when the one woman questioned trump and he denied that he had said

what he said and she said where did i read that? asking trump where she read it. jim: the audience for the cnbc debate was how many million? pat: 14 million. john: why was it different than the first debates? how many in the first? pat: 25 million, fox. john: that was the second one? pat: i think it's closer to 22. john: you're wrong there. you have to get with it. 23. this was the first of the presidential debates that had to compete with a world series baseball game. pat: also on a much smaller network. john: rank has its privileges. pat: we all turned in at one time or another to ms, fox, cnn. we all don't tune into the cnbc business channel. john: issue two -- a new

speaker, a new deal. >> i think this process is ridiculous. boehner: the honorable paul d. ryan of the state of wisconsin, having received a majority of the votes cast, is duly elected as speaker of the house. [applause] ryan: but lets be frank, the house is broken. were not solving problems, were adding to them. only a fully functioning house an truly represent the people, and if there were ever a time for us to step up, this would be that time. john: paul ryan, new speaker of the u.s. house of representatives, took office on thursday, pledging to make politics work better. but on wednesday, before mr. ryan took the speakers gavel, the house of representatives passed a major bipartisan budget deal. here are its eight key elements. first, government spending. it will increase by a total of $50 billion in 2016, and $30

billion in 2017. the increases will be split equally between defense and domestic programs, but an additional $31 billion will also be allocated for defense spending over two years. second, $168 billion in long-term savings will be made by reforming the social security disability fund. third, a 2% cut in medicare payments to some healthcare providers will stay. fourth, companies will no longer have to automatically enroll employees with health insurance. fifth, $8 billion will be allocated to prevent medicare premium hikes that some beneficiaries were expecting next year. six, generic drug companies will have to pay higher rebates to

state medicare funds if and when drug prices rise above inflation. seven, to generate revenue, oil will be sold from the strategic petroleum reserve. eight, the u.s. debt borrowing limit will be lifted until 2017. the deal is expected to be passed by the senate this weekend and signed into law by president obama shortly thereafter. is this budget a good deal or a bad deal? eleanor: it's a good deal and it couldn't have happened if john boehner hadn't resigned. he basically gave up the speakership because he knew he would have been forced out trying to put through this budget. the house republicans have come to terms with an interim honeymoon that allows boehner to leave cleaning out the barn, as he puts it. this budget will take stration

at the end of obama's term. gives the new president a year without having to worry about the debt ceiling in a dysfunctional government it's amazing they got this done. it's a small-bore deal in the great scheme of things but it's positive. both participants win. tom: it's a reflection of the fact that republicans are in a position they would conceive as weakness in congress moving towards the presidential election. there's a positive in my generation, beginning of reforms to entitlements but i have a concern. two things, i think it's an extraordinary neglect of president obama's responsibility to say no defense spending without my domestic increases. but also, if you look at the spending we have at the moment, the percentage of g.o.p., it is a problem. the curve says it's going to increase again. that puts interest rates, my generation gets screwed. pat: ryan says the process

stinks. he says the house is broken. this was an orderly republican retreat to a new line of defense maybe in 2017 or something like that. they caved in. they've broken the spending caps here and nancy pelosi has a victory and republicans, all they got is -- they didn't want a fight so they didn't fight. they lost. clarence: they could have -- couldn't have done it without boehner, he had to throw his line down on the sword to get this through. -- they weren't able to cutt down on medicine care spending out -- without bank breaking out in hives. this is a real issue. the house is so fractious right now and the senate to a certain degree it's remarkable they got anything through and were able to hold off more debt ceiling

crisis over the next two years. and that's saying something 6. eleanor: it's huge. tom: but clearly it is a victory for the democrats. they have got more of what they wanted. clarence: it's a victory for america. we have a budget, we don't have to worry about a government shutdown for two years. everybody wins. john: a prominent republican said this about the ryan plan to me. he said it's a good deal because a political stalemate over the debt ceiling now would have rattled economic confidence at a time when third quarter dropte has dropped to 1.5% and the markets are nervous, they're jittery. you agree with that? clarence: absolutely. the one thing marks -- markets care about is stability in washington, as long as we're not on the brink of something. pat: the dow has been going up but there is a truth in this.

republicans wouldn't have shut down the government but they wouldn't have been blamed for it. no debt ceiling, they would have been blamed for the whole thing. not the senate or the president but the republicans until they said we give up. eleanor: paul ryan is a quality human being and a quality politician. it's a new generation so maybe some home lies ahead for further breakthroughs. tom: and one final thing, the markets also want long-term confidence that we're going to resolve our debt issues. john: good point. thank you three -- the ferguson effect. >> something has changed in a lot of places in 2015. far more people are being killed in some of americas cities than in many years. in todays youtube world, are officers reluctant to get out of their cars and do the work that controls violent crime? are officers answering 911 calls but avoiding the informal contact that keeps bad guys from standing around, especially with guns?

i do have a strong sense that some part of the explanation is a chill wind has blown over law enforcement over the last year, and that is surely changing behavior. john: for the first time in decades, violent crime is on the rise in the u.s.s top 50 cities. in washington, d.c., murders are up 20% so far this year. in recent speeches to the university of chicago law school and the international association of chiefs of police, f.b.i. director james comey has warned that the spike in homicides is due to something dubbed the -- quote ferguson effect, unquote. one year ago in august, michael brown was killed by police in ferguson, missouri, triggering protests, riots, and demands for widespread changes in police methods. president barack obama is the leading advocate for changes in

law enforcement tactics and prison sentences. the result is that demoralized police officers now avoid potential confrontations. so says director comey, the nations top law enforcement officer. president obama disagrees. this week, mr. obama dismissed rising crime rates as not, quote. statistically meaningful. unquote. but the presidents former chief of staff rahm emanuel, now mayor of chicago a city particularly hard-hit by murder rates sides with director comey. quote -- we have allowed our police department to get fetal, and it is having a direct consequence. they have pulled back from the ability to interdict. they dont want to be a news tory themselves. they dont want their career ended early. and its having an impact. unquote.

what does rahm by getting fetal? clarence: what he means is fetal position. they're crouching down there, hiding behind their cars and not getting out and patrolling. in fact, there is a -- the prison effect, first of all, what they call the cell phone effect. look at the big cases and they've been generated by cell phone videos in chicago, the city has had to cut back considerably on police and police patrols over recent years, resulting in less community policing so the police are getting less of an opportunity to get out and know anywhere community and contacts and that's a really effective way to bring down crime rates. also in chicago and washington, places that have had rising crime rates recently, the rates are still lower than they were

20 years ago. pat: there were as many people murdered this year in baltimore as in new york city, which is 13 times as large. what comey said an i thought dotely has to be true. comes are watching tv. others get into trouble and others who think they don't. a cop as an individual, they have to be affected by this and there's no doubt about it and comey understands these police and the politicians aren't the ones you look to and comey ask exactly right. clarence: anic dotely you're right but statistically it's very much disputed there's a ferguson effect. eleanor: there's no statistic evidence that this is true. the anecdotes have been fueling it. it's on the right in particular because they want to stop the focus on the police behavior. the administration i don't think is going to back off of that.

but the perspective was careful this last week. he spoke to an international group of sheriffs to basically express confidence and admiration in the pipe who do law enforcement work. john: do you think obama is in denial? eleanor: he's not in denial at all. tom: the important point, if you have cancer you listen to the oncologists, not the business manager of the hospital because he's the expert. comey is wildly respected. body chamralsrass help stop abuse but at the same time communities are saying people protest is the same as throwing rocks on police officers and that has an effect and it's the serious and we should condemn it. john: prediction, pat? pat: angela americaling is on the way out. eleanor: mitt romney's idea of capping production for higher earners will make a comeback.

tom: the leader of isis will be dead by the end of the year. clarence: republicans are going to to have a debate next time that will be much more to their liking. john: buenos aires mayor mauricio macri, the son of italian immigrants, will win the nov. 22 presidential runoff election. his center-right coalition, cambiemos, will bring peronist rule in argentina to an end after its 12-year stretch. happy hall week. bye-bye. ♪

welcome to kqed newsroom are i'm thuy vu. new measures to protect golden eagles and more obstacles to home ownership. we begin with a look at efforts to reform the criminal justice system in california and across the nation. over the past year protests over police shootings have brought renewed attention to racial disparities in arrest, conviction, and incarceration rates. earlier this month president obama said as long as he is in the white house he will fight to make the criminal justice system fairer and more cost effective. >> 30 years ago there were