this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. >> housing holdup. pending home sales drop for the third time in four months for one very specific reason. we'll explain. all in? donald trump opts to spend $2 million a week on campaign ads. how that claim might impact others in the run for the white house. and a taxing issue. how wall street pros playing the tax game could hit your portfolio and what to do about it. all that and more for wednesday, december 30th. good evening, everyone, and welcome. tyler has the evening off. stocks fell almost a percent today on what else, a drop in oil. more on that in a moment, but first, not even warm weather across much of the country helped home sales last month. pending home sales, which measures signed contracts for

purchase, fell unexpectedly in november. the national association of realtors said pending sales slid 0.9% from october. it is the third drop in four months, and diana olick explains, the reason why is very clear. >> reporter: lynette bruno knows real estate. she works for trulia, a real estate listing company. so, when she decided to trade up from her condo to a bigger home in red-hot san francisco, she knew what she was in for. >> you can't get too wrapped up in this process, because it can emotionally drain you. >> reporter: it took more than a dozen offers and nearly a year for bruno to get her new home. >> i'm not sure there's any offers that aren't overasking in san francisco. definitely, every single offer that i put in was overasking. there was one point i put in an offer of 52% over, and i was in the middle of the pack of 15 offers.

>> reporter: driving prices and tight inventory are blamed for weak sales in november. pending home sales, which are a measure of signed contracts, not closings, fell just under 1%, well below expectations of a gain. sales are still up from a year ago, but by the smallest margin in over a year. and it's not just san francisco, either. here in washington, d.c., half the homes for sale in november sold in less than two weeks. there's barely a two-month supply here, which pushed the median price to the highest november level on record. sales are suffering everywhere, but especially in california, where prices have gained the most. sales are down dramatically compared to a year ago because there is just so little for frustrated buyers to choose from. >> many of them have already passed so many hurdles -- saving for the down payment, qualifying for a mortgage -- they've done their work. now it's time for cities to do their work, and that could mean changing some zoning laws, allowing for different types of construction, adding affordable homes to the market.

>> reporter: in other words, just giving people something to buy. for "nightly business report," i'm diana olick in washington. >> and a little later, courtney reagan will look at how pricey rents in new york city's commercial real estate is causing some retailers to re-evaluate. oil prices were hit once again today, thanks to a couple of events. the biggest was an unexpected rise in u.s. crude inventory, adding to the concern of a global glut of oil, which has cratered prices this year. also adding to the route, comments from the saudi oil minister who said the kingdom will not change its production policy of unrestrained output, adding that the policy is reliable. all of this added to a drop of better than 3% on the day for both the u.s. and global benchmarks. both are also down 30% this year. and that drop in oil was one big weight on stocks today. on wall street, the indices started lower and the selling accelerated right into the close. in the end, the dow fell 117 points to close at 17,603.

the nasdaq was off 42 points, hurt by better than 1%. loss in apple specifically for that. and the benchmark s&p 500 index dropped 15. and at this time of year, it's expected that some investors will sell stocks for tax implications, but longtime market pro art cashin says things have changed, and you should keep an eye on changes for the sake of your portfolio. >> if you have a stock that's done very well this year, you want to postpone selling it until after the first of the year, because that carries you a whole year ahead taxwise. if you sell it today, you've got to think about it in april. if you sell it in the beginning of the new year, you've basically got a whole year to worry about it. so, with that in mind, these two days, what we've seen in the last five years, a phenomenon has developed where people start shorting those stocks, figuring they will be weak at the beginning of next year. >> tim mauer is director of

personal finance at b.a.m. alliance and joins us now. good to see you, as always. welcome. >> good to see you, too, sue. thanks for having me. >> individual investor, we just heard what art cashin said -- some of the pros basically short the stocks and buy them back in the new year when they're lower. does that impact the individual investor? >> well, it may, and i certainly don't want to argue with art, but i do think that it's possible in this particular year. we didn't have a great market up move. so, while there certainly are going to be individuals and institutions who have individual positions that have done very well, the chances may be better, but because the market wasn't up big this year, we're not even going to see as much of this phenomenon. however, even if we did see the phenomenon, sue, it's normally going to be a very short-term move. i don't believe it's a move that is actionable for individual investors. the chances of getting it wrong are much better than getting it right, and as a result, if someone has a really solid,

disciplined, diversified strategy, i would recommend that they not do anything in advance of the first couple days in january's trading, and instead, stick with their strategy. if we do end up getting a significant amount of volatility, there may be opportunities to do some rebalancing. >> right. >> but i would not recommend betting on this phenomenon. >> all right, so, it comes down to discipline, you say. but a lot of people do expect increased volatility in 2016. i mean, the ranges out there are pretty broad. however, how does the individual investor then shield themselves a little bit from the volatility, which may be driven by institutional investors who have had such a hard time making money in this market? >> i certainly don't argue with seeing more volatility in 2016. we actually saw an uptick in 2015 as well. and interestingly, even though we're going to end the year just about even for the broader markets, we saw a lot of volatility in 2015, and that created opportunities for disciplined investors. that opportunity is generally called rebalancing. i know you've heard this before, and it won't be the last time

that i say it, but when we see meaningful dips and a portion of your portfolio shrinks relative to another rise, that's a great time to shift from the winners and go to the losers. this gives us an opportunity. i don't think people should be fearful of volatility. look for the opportunities that volatility creates. >> right. and if indeed we do see this phenomena play out where you see aggressive shorting by institutional investors, you would argue, if you have your discipline in place, that it provides the opportunity to probably, maybe add to those positions that have been weakened by the pros and use that to your advantage? >> it absolutely creates an opportunity for investors who are willing to recognize it, to not get emotional about what is not really a loss but a decline, absolutely. >> that's the key. you only lose if you sell, correct? >> so true, sue. that's absolutely right. >> how do you feel about the market going into this new year? there's so many different opinions about the market. very quickly, we have about 30

seconds left. >> well, as my friend, larry swedro says, my crystal ball is looking a little cloudy. it's the way we actually begin every year. those who make the big projections are almost universally wrong. so, i don't have a guess for you as to where i think the market is going to end up. i do feel the unease, however, but i still believe that a diversified, disciplined strategy helps with that. >> all right, tim. thanks for joining us. have a great new year. >> thanks, sue. you, too. >> tim mauer with b.a.m. alliance. well, as we know, commodities have taken a beating this year, and it's been tough for material stocks in particular. with the s&p sector down 9%, the second worst performer behind energy. but as morgan brennan tells us, there is a bright spot. >> reporter: many of the factors pressuring energy, including oversupply and slowing global growth, are weighing on the commodities and chemicals that make up the material sector. with oil still below $40 a barrel and china's economic growth continuing to decelerate,

analysts expect 2016 to usher in more headwinds, especially for miners. >> i look at the metals and mining being very difficult in '15, and certainly, we expect that to continue in '16. chemicals is in a better situation, we believe. yes, it underperformed the s&p 500 by midsingle digits in 2015. our sense is that in 2016, as long as the general economic environment continues on the pace that we expect, it should fair fairly well. >> reporter: metals and mining companies have taken a beating with mining giant freeport-mcmoran and alcoa two of the worst performers, down about 70% and nearly 40% respectively this year. but the sector's not without a bright spot. construction material stocks like bolkin and marietta which have gone up in a recovery story. both companies produce rocks for concrete, and that business tends to be almost entirely u.s.-based, unlike other commodities that are exposed to china. as nonresidential construction

has finally begun to take off this year, these stocks have benefited. analysts are cautiously optimistic on chemicals as well. while lower for 2015, this group has jumped nearly 15% in the fourth quarter, thanks to the proposed dow chemical/dupont mega merger. that could spur more consolidation, and experts say a strengthening u.s. economy could help as well, despite rising interest rates. >> i'm actually not as concerned about the fact that the fed funds rate is moving up. if i take a look at when that has happened in the past, '94 and '04, those are actually years of outperformance for chemical stocks. >> reporter: but much of the overall sector's performance hinges on china. the world's second largest economy is the top consumer of many raw commodities, so slowing growth there has been a huge weight, cushing demand and creating a supply glut that's caused prices to plunge and companies to make production cuts. that's a dynamic expected to only continue in the new year. for "nightly business report," i'm morgan brennan.

a big name shuts its doors in times square because of high rent. we'll look at what the ripple effects could be, coming up. with iowa about a month away, the candidates are trying to distinguish themselves, and last night was no exception. when donald trump decided now was the time to step up his campaign spending. >> i'll be spending a minimum of $2 million a week, and perhaps substantially more than that. i'm $35 million under budget. i thought as of january 1st, i would have spent $35 million on

ads. i spent nothing! >> john harwood joins us now from washington. john, it's always good to see you. mr. trump has kind of thrown down the gauntlet to the other candidates. whether or not he actually spends that money, he's letting it be known that he's under budget and he has a war chest. >> reporter: well, he does, of course. he says he's worth more than $10 billion, and so, he's got money to spend, if he wants to. but the fascinating thing about this campaign, sue, is that he spent almost nothing on advertising so far, and he's leading the race. people like jeb bush have spent $40 million already. marco rubio spent $20 million. so, the amounts that donald trump are talking about are not likely to revolutionize the race. in fact, if he spends $2 million a week between iowa and the south carolina primary, which are the three that he alluded to, that's just seven weeks, $14 million, well below what his rivals have spent, but he's

prospered anyway. >> does it make those other candidates, though, spend more, change their game, up their game, in some way, shape or form? >> reporter: well, everybody is seeing a new game this time. the candidates, as i mentioned, who have spent the most have been doing very poorly in the polls. and so, it may be that we're seeing the first cycle where it's become blindingly obvious that tv ad spending isn't going to be that important compared to other elements of the race -- direct voter contact and simply the personas that are portrayed through televised debates and public appearances. but you know, as new as the trump phenomenon is, we haven't seen trump, plus television ads. we might be about to find out. >> we may be. it strikes me, john, and disagree with me if you like -- he reminds me of a disruptor, the disruptors that we see in business, like an elon musk, for instance, with tesla, or like the ubers and the lyfts of the

world. is that a fair characterization of mr. trump in terms of the political movement that he has? >> reporter: no question about it, sue. this is a new model. we have not seen before somebody who had both the celebrity and the charisma to sustain public attention and galvanize public attention without doing the traditional things like television advertising. he has not spent the same kind of time on the ground in places like new hampshire and iowa that his rivals have. now, once voting starts, which is going to happen in a month, we're going to have a test of whether what we've seen on the television screen and in the polls holds up under the real pressure of other candidates who are trying to turn out voters and doing the more traditional things. that's when we're going to know whether the old model is busted or whether it's just been sidelined for a while and it's about to return to the fort. >> it is going to be fascinati g fascinating. john, thanks for joining us. have a great new year.

>> you, too. carl icahn wins the takeover battle for manny, moe and jack, and that's where we begin "market focus." the investors will buy the auto part seller for just over $1 billion after japan's bridgestone said it would not match the bid. shares of pep boys fell 18% to $18.39. shares of weightwatchers soared today after a new television ad featuring oprah winfrey began to air. she also tweeted the ad yesterday to her more than 30 million followers. winfrey took a 10% stake in the company back in october. today, shares were up 19% to $23.05 and have more than tripled since oprah bought in. a bullish note says tesla will deliver more than 18,000 cars in the fourth quarter. that means tesla is on track to meet the higher end of its quarterly guidance and its latest annual forecast. tesla was up a fraction today to

$238.09, but it is up about 8% this year. flat panel-maker universal display get a pop today on a report from korea's "electronic times," saying that samsung and lg are close to final deals with apple to supply oled displays for iphones. this follows a similar report from japan's nikkei just about a month ago, stating apple will launch iphones featuring oleds in 2018. as a result, shares of universal display were up about 7% today to $56.02. and shares of fairchild semiconductor rose today after word it got a revised, unsolicited takeover offer to buy all of its outstanding shares for $21.70 each. that comes out to nearly $2.5 billion. last month, onsemiconductor agreed to buy fairchild's outstanding stock for $20 a share. today shares were up nearly 4% to $20.75. well, we know that manhattan is an island, but it's also an

island like no other in real estate. sky-high rents are forcing some companies to close and forcing others to really re-evaluate whether the pricey real estate is even worth it. courtney reagan takes a look. >> reporter: after 14 years, toys "r" us is closing the doors of its times square store for the last time tonight. five months ago, the retailer closed its legendary fao schwarz store on fifth avenue. and it's more than just toys. crate n barrel closed its madison avenue store four years before the lease ended. the rent is too darn high in new york city. but the shoppers are going to miss toys "r" us. >> i always promise my kids, i said i had to bring them today. >> sorry to say it's more for the experience, and i know that's probably what's hurting it, but the ferris wheel is so much fun. >> we'd definitely like to see it reopen somewhere else with the ferris wheel. that would be awesome. >> reporter: retail rents are sky a high with average rent for

ground space up 40% in the flat iron area, nearly 30% on one part of east 57th street. however, the real estate board of new york says not every area of manhattan is seeing higher average asking rents than a year ago. it's down as much as 6% in some areas. the average asking rent for ground floor retail space in times square is up 3%. the second highest in manhattan at $2,390 per square foot. >> when a retailer looks at their expansion for the entire country, they're going to want more stores in new york. they cost a lot more to build, they cost a lot more for them to pay, you know, rent, but they're the most productive stores. >> reporter: stores located in heavily trafficked areas also offer retailers big-time brand awareness. many retailers justify the higher occupancy cost in part as marketing expenses. frank lao, says the big apple is

hard to beat when it comes to retail exposure, especially for tourists, even though tourism is down, due in part to a stronger dollar. online shopping is hurting stores everywhere. alex partners consulting retail practice says it might be worse for retailers catering to tourists in a city like new york. no one wants to lug around big bags while exploring the city, especially if online ordering and delivery is an option. for "nightly business report," i'm courtney reagan in new york. >> faith consolo joins us to talk more about the real estate market and whether or not the models for retail stores is changing. she is chairman of the retail group at douglas elman real estate and was a real estate adviser on the toys "r" us times square store. good to see you, faith. welcome. >> welcome. thank you, sue. >> all right, tell me more about this, because a lot of people basically think that the flagship model, if you will, is broken, but i think you might disagree with that. >> oh, i do disagree.

i think that bigger is still better. and for a brand, definitely a world-class brand, the flagship's important. if there's a decision that a retailer makes, whether it's nike or a&m or victoria's secret, to have one, big flagship in the center with just new york city, because we are the shopping capital of the world, in a place like times square or on fifth avenue or on broadway in soho, that's a very good marketing decision. it's the face of the brand. it's the face to the world. they not only get the tourists, they're acknowledged all over. and the foot traffic is here. so, i think if you're going to open five suburban stores or one new york city flagship, they're going to decide one new york city flagship. >> but what does the message that toys "r" us send to not only landlords but the industry in general? >> well, you know, it's the toy

business. it has nothing to do -- not nothing -- it has something to do with the location. yes, fao schwarz closed, and yes, toys "r" us closed. and just to give you a point of reference, that lease was $9 million annual rent, which seemed enormous back when we had made that deal, actually, 15 years ago. but today, that rent's $40 million, but the toy business has changed. you have all the toys being purchased not only online but at walmart, at kmart, at all the big box category-killers. and the price differential has made that very unattractive for the toy business. yet, we look at somebody like american doll, who remains on fifth avenue on the corner, a few blocks away, rockefeller center, and they're not going anywhere. >> all right, so, someone -- you maintain, then, that that space that is being exited by toys "r"

us will be filled very quickly. >> well, it is filled. the lease is already signed. it's going to be a combination of the gap and old navy. and for the gap, this was a major decision, because once again, they're reinventing themselves, redesigning, re-emerging. you know, a lot of their customer base was taken away. they were pushed aside by the zara's. so, for them to make this decision was very important, and they believe that this will help reinvent the brand. >> very quickly, i have about 30 seconds left. >> okay, sure. >> how important is the online component of all of this to the box and mortar stores? >> well, online will never displace bricks and mortar, but what we found is many consumers research online and then shop in the store, but it's helped a lot of the bricks and mortar stores by generating more traffic. it may not seem that way, because online is a percentage,

but it has reinforced that, combining with social media is just going to make sales go off the map. >> all right. faith, thank you very much for joining us. >> okay. bye-bye. >> faith consolo with douglas elleman real estate. the new battle for your money is being fought on social media with buy buttons. did it work this holiday season and which companies are leading the way? we'll take a look, next. here's what to watch for on thursday. a snapshot of the job market is first up. weekly unemployment claims come out. they are expected to remain near historic lows. also out, a barometer of the overall economy, the institute of supply management releases its index for chicago. and just like oil inventories are closely watched, so, too, are nat gas

inventories, so we'll get a look at what's on the watch list for the last trading day of 2015. finally tonight, this holiday shopping season, you might have noticed something different as you wished your friends season's greetings on social networks, new "buy" buttons. so, what's latest in the social networks' battle for retail dollars? julia boorstin has more. >> reporter: facebook, instagram, twitter, youtube, pinterest. this holiday season, these social platforms have been promoting buy buttons, making their ads shopable as they compete for retailers' marketing dollars. facebook and instagram worked with target, j. crew and american girl, among others, engaging with customers, starting with gift planning all the way through prompting them to buy. twitter highlighted its tools, such as custom emojis to draw starbucks, best buy, macy's and others to its promoted moments and trends. >> social shopping is new across all platforms. and so, we endeavor to help advertisers find success with their marketing goals for

discovery all the way down to capturing intent. so, we're really encouraged that we have a product like the buy button, but i don't think it's the only thing that we're focusing on. >> bull's eye here got to go on an advantage. >> reporter: this holiday shopping season, online retail sales grew 20%, but that's not thanks to these new buy buttons. to give a sense of how small social commerce is now, social media sites drove just 1.8% of online sales this holiday shopping season at the 200 e-commerce sites powered by custora marketing software. but retail giants are likely to pursue their shopping experiments as a potential source of totally new revenue streams. >> well, 100% of many internet companies' revenue comes from advertising. and with the rise of adoption of ad-walking, they need a second revenue stream, in case that one starts to report negative growth. so, i think rev-share through commerce is a logical next step to try to diversify away from

advertising in the face of the threat of ad-blocking. >> reporter: and some social platforms are looking for ways to offer unique tools for marketers to more effectively drive sales. snapchat offering brands including cover girl the opportunity to integrate into users' photos. and pinterest now sends users alerts when a buyable pin drops in price. everyone's watching to see which social shopping tools drive the highest return for marketers. for "nightly business report," i'm julia boorstin in los angeles. and that's "nightly business report" for tonight. i'm sue herera. we'll see you here tomorrow.

announcer: the following program contains mature content which may not be suitable for all audiences. viewer discretion is advised. can i help you? cynthia: i think we might be getting someone new. jenny: you're going to need them. i've just been seconded to the london. jimmy. i think you'll find in the present day, mrs... carter. carter. both of them. oh, step back and let somebody competent take your place. jenny: i need to talk to you about mr. tracy. he's making mistakes. jimmy! jimmy! you're going to be all right, jimmy, i promise you. announcer: funding for "call the midwife" is provided by contributionse" is provided by contributions to your pbs stations from viewers like you. thank you.