from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over two decades, the vogeico, committed to providing service to its auto insurance customers for over 70 years. more information on auto insurance at geico.com or 1-800-947-auto any time of the day or night. if. for such a small if i live to a hundred.

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>> in the 2008 presidential election, young voters under the age of 30 propelled barack obama to the u.s. presidency. then 51% of voters cast their ballots by a margin of 34 points. that's why the president was revving up the badgers at the university of wisconsin, madison and broadcast to 100 other college campuses. the president has his work cut out for him. a battleground poll conducted last week put the following question, quote, do you think president obama has performed his job as president well enough to deserve reelection? unquote. 38% said obama deserved reelection. 38%. but despite that low number, there may be good news for democrats. in a recent gallop poll conducted last week, democrats have caught up to republicans

in the generic congressional ballot. when asked whether they would vote for a democratic congressional candidate or a republican congressional candidate in their district, 46% of those polled picked a democratic candidate. this is exactly the same percthose who picked a republican candidate. >> question, will president obama be able to rally voters and save the democrats from a november blowout? pat buchanan. >> no, the democrats will have a major defeat. there's no doubt about it. i will say this, the democrats are in better shape than they were in august when they had that mosque thing, the mosque down there at ground zero and obama has done well in his campaigning. the republicans made a mistake putting outhis new contract with america. they broke into their own message and a lot of races, the republicans are slipping in california. the republicans are losing that. the tea party princess is not in great shape up there in delaware. but the republicans are doing

well in wisconsin and some of these other states. so where i think we're at, john, people are talking about 60 seats. ain't going to get 60. i think it's 50/50 or better that the republicans are going to take the house. i do not expect them right now to take the senate. >> eleanor, tell us why at's not true. >> well, there are glimmers of hope out there for the democrats and i'm glad that the president has finally gotten off the mat and fighting back. he has gotten more confrontational and it's good practice for after the election, because there will be more republicans in congress and he is going to have to get more confrontational. his whole thing of, let's all get along, only works if the other party is willing to get along. the republican party has not been party types who are going to be in congress are going to be less willing to work with the president. so he's got to get out there and be a fighter and inspire those people. all those young people aren't going to turn out in the

midterm. historically, that doesn't happen. but enough of them that they might limit the damage. >> is it too late? >> it's never too late if you are president and he's going through a transformation in the white house with some personnel and he'll have to readjust. >> i have this vision of barack obama sitting howard hughs like in a darkroom in the white house late at night wrapped in a bathrobe watching the campaign saying how did we do that? one of the things, one of the many things that barack obama's campaign did brilliantly in '08 was mobilizing the youth vote and what he has done literally over the last week has gone out to college campuses, broadcasting his rallying speeches to all of these college campuses, about a thousand across the country to reenergize the kids and get the kids out. it's back working with the white house on these campaigns. they did that brilliantly and this is one thing that the republicans have not been able

to capitalize on. social media, facebook, twitter. i mean, in '08. john mccain was trying to campaign with smoke signals while the obama campaign was using all of the social media. the other thing that obama is doing and i think probably, it's not so great in terms of the way to run a campaign, but it's being effective, which is he is playing the identity politics card. he is triggering blacks. he is triggering women and triggering the unions. those are the democratic core constituencies. he is telling them to get out and frankly it's working because you are starting to see, according to that generic ballot, that the race is tightening. >> even if he could, according to the figures i have here, turn out liberals, african american, hispanics, and young voters. the coalition that won in 2008 has been gone down in size. >> i think he is going to be

able to mobilize a portion of those constituencies that came out in huge numbers in '08. remember on the other side, it's going to be balanced by older voters who typically always vote in midterm elections, but are going to come out in droves because they are horrified by obama care and the state of the economy. >> and the republican money. >> what about the intensity between republicans and democrats? the intensity on the side of the republicans is 66%. the gop are very interested in the race. it's only 50% for democrats. that's a 60% intensity gap driving the republicans. >> well, i think that's an important, very important factor in the midterm elections. what i think is also going to be very important is the fact that a lot of these people are going to have very difficult economic news between now and the election time. and that's going to drive a lot of people to go out and vote. i don't think -- i don't want to under estimate obama as a campaigner. i don't think it's going to be nearly enough to turn the tide.

the only question is, how big will the republican victory be and the question is, will they get enough to capture the house and how many senate seats will they capture? >> the anger out there is against both parties. when ey go to vote, they vote against the incumbent. >> in the good rhetoric in obama. is there a sense on the part of the electorate, been there, done that? yes you're good, but you are not a leader? >> no, absolutely. not only that he's not a leader, he hasn't delivered. whatever the level of expectations were when he was elected, they were much higher at that point and i think therefore, it's going to be very difficult. >> this is not a gop election at all. that's out at madison. >> what do you mean by that? >> people are voting against. they are coming out to vote against obama. >> that's the intensity factor. >> pelosi and reid and debts and deficits. that's why the republicans made a terrible mistake. the party of no was winning.

here's the things we are going to do. put a target on their back. interrupted their own momentum. >> they should have stood aside and let it be a referendum on the democrats. instead, they put their extreme proposals out there. >> well, the candidates around the country are running on the extreme proposals. you're right. >> self-identified conservative, listen to this number. the largest conservatives are the majority. 42% say they are conservatives. 20% say they are liberals. >> the key, john, is conservatives don't agree with each other except on getting rid of obama and reid and pelosi. if the republicans say on that, they win. if we get into, did we? >> the biden blame game. >> there's some on th democratic base, t e core of it, that are angry because we didn't get every single thing they want. and so those who don't get --

didn't everything they wanted is time to buck up here. >> before he said buck up, he said something else. stop whining. wait a minute. let's get to the point here. is he laying the foundation for a blame game, namely blaming the left if they lose? >> people, he is trying to get -- >> you don't understand. >> don't get these people by yelling at them and blaming them. you want them to come out, you know, and support you. that's not the way to get them out. you can't provoke them. >> they need to be bucked up. but the point he's trying to get across is, if liberals stay home because they are disappointed, they will get a choice that is worse that night one they have now. so just as his economic plan is, it would be worse without any economic plan. if you don't vote for me, it will be worse with the other guy. it's a complicated argument to make. >> he's saying you liberals

better get on your game. you are going to drive me to the republicans. you are going to get things done. that's what he's saying. >> i don't think he is going to cripple him. >> he had them feel as a candidate, is that he would be a unifier. what this is going to do, it's going to make him a divider again. >> monica. >> john, i take pleasure in reminding both president obama and vice president biden who used the phrase, buck up, that the last president to regularly use that phrase to rally his troops was richard nixon. >> you get pat confused? >> no, i was looking at pat because we both worked for president nixon. nixon used the phrase buck up. this is a referendum on progressivism. >> no, i'm talking about progressivism. what eleanor refers to as extreme policies in the pledge, we are talking about cutting taxes, limiting government,

cutting the deficit. > [ inaudible ] >> let eleanor in. >> what's your point? >> i was talking about extreme policies that republican candidates are running on that the republican leaders on capitol hill don't want to be part of. >> let me just clarify. she was referring to are limited government, lowering the tax burden. constitutional government. >> exit question. >> get it in here, pat. >> on a scale of 0 to 10, what is the probability that obama will close the intensity gap with republicans and motivate his coalition to buck up and turn out next month? 0 to 10? >> it is a 0, john. he can't -- he can maybe make some gains, but the real problem, obama's great mistake is he misread an election that said get rid of republicans as a mandate for transformational change that he never had.

and because he moved in that direction, he has lost the center. >> i disagree. he didn't act on the mandate he had from 53% majority win and he misread the public's desire for everybody to get along for thinking the republicans might want to do that. and that failed completely. >> monica. >> close the gap is probably two or three. but there's a march this weekend in washington and john stewart and stephen colbert could put the young people over the top. >> colbert? >> they are having -- >> obama never reached out to the republicans. not on stimulous, not on healthcare. not on any of the issues the republicans were trying to work on him. that 42% conservative number -- obama led this country from the real far left. >> what's your number? >> i don't under estimate the

obama team's ability to -- >> what's your number? >> 2 to 3. >> he had a failed economic policy and a healthcare program that has the lowest level of support that anybody could have imagined for somebody that devoted time and energy. the substance also accounts. i think it's between 1 and 2. >> all right, that substance will be vindicated in the future, either in 2012 or in the future. done good things since the economy with we get it. we get it. and this is why when we outline it here our pledge to america, i can tell you, weare very serious about implementing our pledge. >> house republicans have unveiled a 21 page manifesto. the pledge to america. with this agenda, the pledge

may deflate the democratic wrap against republicans, namely the gop is quote, the party of no, unquote. no programs, nothing constructive. the boehner 21 page document promises that a republican controlled congress will execute the following. one, cut spending. two, cement in place the bush tax cuts at all level. three. trim the u.s. government. four, sack obama care. five, put in gop healthcare. six, pay down the catastrophic u.s. $13 trillion public debt. and get this, any future bills including budget items must include exact words from the u.s. constitution that justify the content of the proposed measure. >> question, what is the reaction of rank and file republicans to the pledge? i ask you monica.

>> what a radical agenda. constitutional government, holy cow. i can see why the left is threatened by this and thinks it's extreme, but it's not. this pledge is a very good start for the gop. one of the big reasons why they lost in 2006 and 2008. it's because they went down this big government, big spending road. they lost touch with what they're supposed to stand for. this pledge, i understand heading into a big election, you don't want to go out there with aggressive bold proposals like a balance budget amendment or a cap because you want to win in november. but after november, assuming they make big gains, they will have to come out with much more aggressive. >> there's nothing extreme about that. and it's an effort to try to co- op the tea party emotions and the tea party candidates are running on positions they want to privatize social security and medicare. they want to get rid of the energy department and this doesn't say how they will go about doing this. everybody can say cutting the

deficit, doing it, specifying the programs. it's a disaster. >> why? >> the republican party had tremendous momentum going forward. they put this thing out. the conservative said this is a pile of mush. the democrats said you're going back to the bush policies. they attacked it. folks like me who were saying the party is really rolling along, why did yoyostop and interrupt this? in addition, john, do you know they put it on the air at the same time obama was given a speech so even on cable, nobody saw their event. >> well -- >> do you think it is tough on them? you don't think people like to hear what we just heard? >> the press says where's your plan? where's your plan? here's our plan and they will get clobbered. >> it's to paper over the establishment of republicans and john boehner has been there. he was there for the first revolution. this is not a new threat facing here. >> they are trying to capture the anger of the country on a couple of issues. they are trying to capture it,

shall we say, if anything from the tea party as well. they want to at least make clear that they are the voice of that anger and not just another party. >> there is an impact to what boehner said. namely that there will be a fusion between tea party and them. because what we just had up on the screen is very attractive to the tea party. it's not everything they want, but it is attractive and pulls them closer so there is a fusion between the two. because when it comes two years from now, there's not a fusion, the regulars and irregulars may be out in the cold. >> everything that he would like to accomplish, of all the things is get the tea party to support the republicans. i don't see where else they can go. >> war for the soul of the republican party will start on november 2. we agree, for example. >> why don't you see that building the fusion between the two? >> well look, the tea party has been taking down regular republicans consistently. quite frankly, these guys are

trying to capture it. get out of the way, ride this to victory and make your decision to what you are going to do. >> a battle between the conservatives, the true conservatives and the republican dreaded establishment is going to be one that is worth the price of admission that even people support the democrats, okay, democrats might lose, but this could be a lot of fun. this is going to be really entertaining. >> so exit question. let's get down to the political fusion. scale, 0 to 100. 0 meaning no fusion whatsoever. and 100 meaning perfect fusion copper and brass forming a single entity. to what extent will the gop and the tea party fuse by the presidential election? >> you just asked a question as to whether or not the republican will provide the next president. reagan is a 10. he did put the anger together and did it. george bush number one didn't. i think it's probably a 4 or 5, but it will take a richard

nixon, frankly, or a ronald reagan to do it. both the skilled politicians. >> eleanor. >> i think all of the candidates in the republican field are going to pander so far to the right that whoever gets the nomination, it will not be worth having. but there are some exceptions. i think i have just been to new jersey and chris cristie is someone who could walk above the various ctions and he could be one of those come from nowhere candidates and i can't say that about anybody else on the political horizon right now. >> cristie is doing some of those radical things you are talking about. cutting taxes, doing pension reform. >> a number of 0 to 100. >> i would say, it's about a 20. i would put it at 20% because the tea party is not going to be coopted. what the tea party is doing is dragging the republican party back to its core principles. whether the establishment in the gop is going be

listening to and absorbing the lessons is an open question. >> what's your fusion number one? >> it's going to be 50 to 60. they know what they want. they want a conservative president. that's the only w ♪[ music ] if you are scanning the market for new friends, don't forget the rich. here are the top 20 wealthiest americans along with their net worth in billions of dollars. as reported by forbes magazine in the october 11 issue. gates, $54 billion. buffett $45 billion. ellison, $27. christy walton $24. charles koch and david koch, $21.5 billion each. jim walton, $20.1 billion.

alice walton $20. walton $19.7. bloomberg $18. brin $15. page $15. 14.5. dell $14. ballmer $13.1. allen $12.7. bezos $12.6. cham beers $12.5. paulson, $12.5 billion. the nation's is an indicator of how well our nation and to a larger how the whole world is doing. >> question, is the wealth r nation's billionaires an indicator of how much or how little the u.s. population is striving? i ask you mort. >> thank you for throwing that question to me, john. i really appreciate it. >> let's get this straight now. okay. we are talking

to deal with it. well, that's very nice and all i can say is i don't agree with your question in the sense that i don't think it's a reflection of how well the country is dog. it's how well the country is doing for a lot of people who have the chance to do well in this country and start off with very lit and will do very well at the end. that's been my experience and i think it's wonderful. >> let's take a look at the 19th century. the billionaires would be rockefeller, james jay hill, carnegie, these are people that built the country enormously. some of these folks are in gambling, finance, they are in trade and service. i think that's a sign that the people are making all their money in things that don't necessarily make a country more powerful. >> gates is not. gates is right at the top. >> the waltons didn't do it. >> mom and pop óstores across america. >> they change and transform the standard of living for a lot of americans. >> the debt is not the guys that built america.

>> i would like to see another list. how much do these various people give to ventures like the carnegies built our library system. and gates -- there's a lot of people on that list i haven't heard of and i would also like to see their involvement in political exercises, because i know there is some prominent democrats on that list. the koch brothers who go against climate change. >> to build america -- >> let me say this. >> he supported progressive candidacy. >> in america's growth and in america's role in the world. >> can we get back? >> it's a huge industry. that's the problem. >> can we get back to the question i put in originally? it takes billionaires to produce the purchasing -- >> no, the standard of living of the average american has been stagnant for years. >> the middle class depends on the purchasing power of billionaires. true or false? >> false. >> the distance between the

very rich and the poor. the district of columbia where i live, they just did a survey. it's the medium income is $87,000 and 40% of the children are in poverty. if the medium income is $87,000. there's a lot of people on the top making huge sums of money. that's not the medium income in the district. >> does it take private capital to create jobs and doesn't it depend upon the billionaires to an extent? the purchasing power that they have? the billionaires -- >> the private capital comes from our predictions, pat. >> i think after the election, john, we have been talking. i think the tea party and the war party which wants to go to war against iran, you could have problems there. a lot of the tea party folks are not anxious for anymore interventions and some are come home america people. >> tea party? >> yes. dynamite. eleanor.

>> california is coming home to the democrats and the revelation that meg whitman had hired an illegal alien for nine years and kind of looked the other way is dealing -- will deal her campaign a deadly blow. >> she denies it? >> she can't deny this woman worked for her and exchanged documents. >> she looks authentic. >> her husband said maybe he did see the documentation from the irs about it. so we'll see. >> we don't know the whole story. [ inaudible ] >> quickly. >> the debt is causing another crisis for the zone. it will put enormous pressure to bail out ireland the way they did greece. >> quickly. >> prprident ahmadinejad is going to go to syria in two weeks to stabilize the country. >> i predict that syria

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