captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> lehrer: good evening. i'm jim lehrer. egyptian president mubarak stepped down today and handed control to the military. it was a dramatic conclusion to 18 days of protests. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight, we get the latest on this historic day from lindsey hilsum of independent television news, and our own margaret warner. they're both in cairo, where the crowd erupted in cheers when the announcement was made. >> it took us a lot, over 18 days but in the end the people succeeded and we got what we wanted. >> i can't say what i am feeling. i am very happy. i want to do everything i can do.

i want to >> lehrer: then, jeffrey brown examines what the climactic end of the uprising means for egypt and beyond. >> woodruff: then, we look at the 2012 republican presidential hopefuls courting conservatives this week in washington. >> we're goinging to hear a lot of rhetoric. we're goinging to hear a lot of ideas but what is really the critical component is what are they capable of taking action on >> lehrer: and mark shields and david brooks provide their weekly analysis. that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> okay, listen. somebody has got to get serious. >> i think... >> we need renewable energy. >> ...renewable energy is vital to our planet. >> you hear about alternatives, right? wind, solar, algae. >> i think it's got to work an a big scale. only, i think it's going to be affordable. >> so, where are they? >> it has to work in the real

world. at chevron, we're investing millions in solar and biofuel technology to make it work. >> we've got to get on this now. >> right now. >> bnsf railway. the engine that connects us. pacific life. and by toyota. the william and flora hewlett foundation, working to solve social and environmental problems at home and around the world.

and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> lehrer: egyptians celebrated far into the night after president mubarak finally gave way and resigned. the momentous turnabout came after nearly three weeks of ever-growing protests against his 30-year rule. we begin our coverage with a report from lindsey hilsum of independent television news. >> 6:00 in cairo and the news cast cade the through the crowd. across egypt millions were on the streets erupting in excitement. he's gone. after 30 years, gone.

cars honked their horns. it was a moment like no other in their lives. in tahrir square the protestors were besides themselves. ed they they done it they'd won. they bought down president mubarak. >> this is a moment every one here has been waiting for. they thought it was going to come last night. it didn't. they had to wait another 24 hours. rarely can a military takeover have been greeted with such enthusiasm as it is on the streets of cairo tonight. but in the end it all is down to one man, mubarak. and these people say-- he's gone. for many t was a joy beyond words. >> i can't say what i am feeling. i have very happy. i want to do everything, everything i can do. i want to-- i don't know

what i say. i don't know what i say. i can't believe it i i can't believe it i can't believe anything. >> it took us awhile, over 18 days but in the end the people have succeeded and we got what we wanted. >> reporter: a few minutes earlier vice president omar suleiman had appeared on television. >> in the name of god, the merciful, the compassionate, my dear fellow citizen, in the exceptional circumstances that have been going on in the country, the president hosni mubarak decided to step down and to hand over the administration of the country to the high council of the military forces. >> earlier in the day, protestors had gathered outside the presidential palace. not knowing if mr. mubarak was still there. rumors swirled that he had gone to his home. the military stood guard. no longer loyal, but determined that he should

leave with dignity. officers told the crowd they could go no further. the army has always been the most powerful political force in egypt. now it's officially in charge. >> demonstrators refutes to be contained to tahrir square. they were spreading their revolution all over the city. several thousand went tohe tv station. pew barack-- the symbol of the old regime. these young revolutionaries love the army. the soldiers haven't turned against the protestors. in tahrir square, they were already clearing away the barricades. this was the nile revolution and they won. >> lehrer: in the end, mubarak and his family did leave cairo for sharm el-sheik. it was unclear when they might return. meanwhile, the egyptian military promised not to try to run the country itself. the air force commander spoke on state television.

>> the supreme council of the armed forces will at a later time issue statements which will define the steps, roars and provisions to be taken. emphasizing at the same time that it is not an alternative to a ledge get mat government acceptable to the people. >> woodruff: in washington, president obama got the news about mubarak as he was having a meeting in the oval office. later, he emerged to say egyptians have inspired the world with the moral force of non-violence and peaceful change. >> the people of egypt have spoken. their voices have been heard and egypt will never be the same. by stepping down president mubarak responded to the egyptian people's hunger for change. but this is not the end of egypt's transition. it's the beginning. i'm sure there will be difficult days ahead. and many questions remain unanswered. but i am confident that the

people of egypt can find the answers. the word tahrir means liberation. it is a word that speaks to that something in our souls that cries out for freedom. and forever more it will remind us of the egyptian people, of what they did, of the things that they stood for, and how they changed their country and in doing so, changed the world. >> lehrer: the joyful scenes in egypt quickly spread across the middle east and around the world. in beirut, lebanon, and in gaza, people poured into the streets, singing, dancing and setting off fireworks as they waved egyptian flags. and egyptians living in france and other countries staged their own celebrations. in tunisia, car horns sounded in tribute to the outcome in cairo. tunisians ousted a long-time dictator last month and inspired

the uprising in egypt. and at the united nations today, secretary-general ban-ki moon praised egyptians for what they'd accomplished. >> i commend the people of egypt for the peaceful and courageous and ode manner in they have to exercise their legitimate rights. i call on all parties to continue in the same spirit >> woodruff: margaret warner has been covering this drama as it unfolded this week. i talked with her a short time ago. >> margaret, hello. you've also been in the streets several times tonight. tell us what you found. >> warner: well, judy, as you can see and particularly here right behind me, i'm on the fifth floor of a building on the nile river, it's a wild party out here. it's now midnight in cairo and i would say there are millions of people in the streets. every bridge you can see is completely filled.

we had to walk across. cars have been abandoned so people can join the party. fireworks are going off. helicopters are buzzing overhead. nobody knows whose helicopters they are. and it was interesting talking to, a lot of these are people who had not joined the demonstrations originally but want to join the party. so in talking to them, of course they're ecstatic. but i asked, you know, why you fought so hard for democracy. how do you feel about the army takinging over. and listen to what this lawyer said out with where fiancee and her friend. >> i think the army is egypt. because in every house in egypt you have a son or father in the army. so we are one. and we might suffer a little bit because of the strict army rule but this is for our own good. because mubarak left the country in corruption and unemployment. >> warner: but when we got down to tahrir square where really the demonstrators had camped out and protested and some died for the cause, the

picture is definitely more complicated. i mean again it was jubilant, again it was ecstatic it was one big, in fact, very chaotic party. a lot less discipline than it had been earlier today. it's impossible to keep discipline. but listen here now, i found a brotherhood activist and he said this is a great day for egypt. after 30 years we got rid of this author tearian dictator, et cetera, et cetera. and i said are ready to go home. listen what he had to say. >> no. >> no, our demands are not met yet. we are not going to be ruled by the army. we have to have a civil government. i'm not speaking just for myself. everyone with me thinks the same. we are not leaving this place unless all our demands are met. we all understand the army is there for our benefit and make sure we get what we want. >> warner: so judy, what surprised me, but i confirmed by talking to other opposition figures not in the muslim brotherhood, that the plan among the opposition is yes, most people will go home.

we have one more day of the week end, maybe tomorrow, there is even some talk of on the internet about coming down and helping to clean up the square. but they plan to leave enough protestors in the square to pressure on the army to follow through with the reforms and in fact, to create a transition government that is acceptable to civilian protestors. >> unfortunately we lost the line to cry row right after that but reconnected with margaret on the phone. so margaret, everybody has been watching this. and i guess one of the questions people have, is when did things turn around? was there any inkling this morning when people got up in cairo that this might be in the offing? >> warner: judy as daytime in cairo it was clear that something more had to be done. another shoe had to drop. because the reaction against president mubarak's speech last night had just beenn so unanimous at least in tahrir square. we went there in the morning

even before friday prayers and there just -- were just hundreds of thousands of people streaming in across bridge, down street, past army tanks, going through the patdowns, getting to the square. and once we got in there, it was clear from talking to all of these demonstrators who had seen the day before,eree any-- to mubarak nor his complicated handoff to vice president suleiman and all the constitutional guarantees he was offering. one young woman said to us look, he's been promised enough stuff, things for 30 year, no more promises. and we're goinging to stay. they all vowed they were going to stay until their quote rev hution was accomplished. ie, he left. but there was a huge disconnect because i'm told even as late as midmorning, meanwhile, people in the government were still talking to u.s. and european officials and saying, well, isn't it very clear, you know, president mubarak handed off this power. and one western diplomat

said you know, the government had gotten so out of touch with their own people. i mean more than 50% of their people are now under 25. this government just was totally disconnected. and this diplomat said i don't think they understand what's happening and even if they do they don't have the tool kit to draw on. in other words, they didn't know how to communicate with their own people. >> woodruff: was there one triggering event? what changed mubarak's mind what changed the mind of the army? >> well, there are clearly going to be a lot of layers be d this is goinging to unfold over days. but let me make a stab at it. i'm told that first all it is significant that even lasnight the supreme council of the egyptian armed forces which is analogous to the joint chiefs, doesn't meet very often, decided to meet and continue a session. one egyptian official told me that's usually only happens in a time of war so they were clearly in full alert mode. i am told that when the army issued that next statement

which i know you've already reported, when they issued that statement about we are now going to guarantee the commitments made by the president and slice president. they were essentially saying look, we know you don't trust your civilian leaders but we'll guarantee. we'll come signing the note. in other words, they were trying to bridge the gap of trust. they said look at their own windows and see these waves of people moving down the streets and over the bridges. and so one official said to me, egyptian, said clearly it was an unsustainable situation. what i don't know, judy, then is what was the secrets and events. had mubarak already left for share-- or was this all an unfolding coring yog fee. but i did ask was it pew barack who recognized it was unsustainable or was he essentially told that. and this egyptian official said it's very significant that the announcement was made by the vice president and he said it was the president handing over power

to the military and then stepping down. and it is important for them to know this, that it was pew barack's decision. >> woodruff: so it sounds like they were doing looking out of the window just like everyone else. margaret, now everyone is asking, what happens next. the army has said very little about what it intends to do. what are you picking up? >> well, what i'm picking up from the opposition, judy is you can see in that bite wead fm brotherhood activist is that though most of the people are going to leave tahrir square sometime this week end, there is going to be a groups that's going to stay until the army carries-- makes a attempt to carry out reforms and have a civilian kpon tont whatever transition government there is. and for the army as you know has not announced what their plan is. the opposition feels they sent lots of signals to the

army that they actually welcomed the army intervening here. that that was the only way to create some sort of political arena in which party kos form and fair elections could be held. but they are now waiting for the army to reach out to them. and to announce some sort of transitional government that will have army, judges, senior public and political figures to design a kind of road map to get from here to the elections that are goinging to be held, at least plan to be held in september. >> woodruff: well, margaret, it's been an extraordinary day. and you're there reportinging in the early hours of saturday morning. thanks very much. >> thanks, judy. >> lehrer: and to jeffrey brown: >> brown: and we continue our look at egypt and beyond with: tarek masoud, assistant professor of public policy at harvard university; rami khouri, a journalist and

director of the issam fares institute at the american university of beirut. he's now a visiting scholar at tufts university. and hishem' melhem, washington bureau chief for al-arabiya tv, an arab language satellite news channel. hishem, i want to start with this word, historic. explain in n what ways is it historic. >> it iss, because of egypt's size, its culture, its history, its homogeneity, past influence and hopefully renewed influence. you have a regime that was entrenched for more than 30 years. and in the span of 18 days, peacefully, creatively, noisely, this regime was brought down. and this is people's power. the likes of which we did not see in the arab world. and even arabs themselves became so cynical about the promise of a better future. the egyptian its today are telling us our best days are not necessarily behind.

our best days are in the future and today with an exaggeration i can tell you all arabs are honorary egyptian. >> brown: what word dow use for today, rami khouri. >> i would even go beyond historic. i think it's cosmic this is extraordinary. and what it means in terms of the a ran world-- the arab world, after the ton easian starting the process, the tunisian presidents then leading to egypt, we now have a clear break in the modern arab security state that has ruled this region for the last two and a half, three generations. and for the first time we are seeing unbelievably important processes of national self-determination created by the citizenry of an arab country. we have processes of citizens, civil society, businesspeople, rule of law judges and lawyers and military negotiating a transitional mechanism so

that power is vested in the consent of the government. these are unprecedented situations in the arab world. we also have the process where you are likely to get after some time civilian oversight over the military and security as happened in turkey, for instance recently. and ultimately over the expenditures, the budgets of arab, of the arab governments and arab ruling families and royal families. this is unprecedented and it has to happen and it started. >> well, tarek, put the what next, all of that in the egyptian context here. >> yeah, i mean what next is the essential question. there is no doubt that today is an historic day in egypt. they haven't changed their leaders by choice or not. since 1952, basically, hen they overthrew the king. but the question really is now what's next. as many of the people in the reports that you were showing said, they want a civilian government. they're not happy with the military taking over.

the hast time the military took over was 1952 and they had a pretty hard time getting them out. so the question is what kind of guarantees can the military provide that they are actually going to midwife a kind of democratic process, that we're actually going to get the things rami talked about, civilian oversight of the military that is a very tall order in this part of the world. so we're not yet sure that we have actually gotten a regime change. >> what questions do you have hishem, you look at the military, the muslim brotherhood, at democratic powers that really don't have, haven't had any power, right, democratic groups. >> the good thing about egypt is between the two world wars, egypt had a liberal society, it has a political life. it has parties. it was dysfunctional in many ways but it was not ray very repressive regime. egypt at one time was the bellwether of the arab world, a trendsetter, created great culture, movies, cinema. >> brown: you and i have talked about this many times. >> absolutely. and i think when those people were dem crating

against the regime they were demonstrating against the men who became the personification of the decline against egypt. i think today the challenge is what is to be done, again, that famous question. and i think i have seen a tremendous intelligence and creativity to make me believe that the people who are friendly with the army will be also very cynical and very sus by does-- suspicious about what arab armies have done in the past or what they are likely to do. it is true that this army did not shoot at the people. would you expect that in the streets of damascus and the old baghdad but not necessarily in cairo, about you this army is one of the major pillars of that existing regime that really brought the egyptians to their knees. and this is an opaque institution in the sense we don't know much about the dynamics of the senior officer core. the minister of defense, 75 years old, picked by pew barack. because he's like mubarak. so essentially what you have here is people have vested

interest in the status quo, not in real reform because they have economic interest. they have their fancy villas and they have their own industries that they can control. and if we are talking about real reform, if you are talking about real civilian control of the military, if you talk about rule of law, if are you talking about all of these things, i bet you that some in the senior officer korpts in egypt, i don't know much about the general officer corps, will resist these changes. and that's why those people should be skeptic about the intentions, the long-term intentions of the army. my fear is they are trying to coop the povment, try to divide it, try to create fissures among the various groups. and i think at this stage i'm not that concerned about the muss him brotherhood. i think if you create enough space in egypt, civil society will revive itself and then will you have all of these secretary you already-- secular force, liberals, nationals and others compete with the islamists and see the islamists reduced in size. barack obama is correct.

they represent, they have roots in egyptian society but they are not the leading force in the society. and this movement was not lead by the islamists t was lead by seculars. >> brown: what do you think about the role of the army at this point, has enough changed. or has that status quo that hishem is talking about still in place? >> well, i think the egyptian people have around five and a half,000 years of running urban society. they now how to do this. know know about civil society, about legal systems, they know about farming and trade and commerce and foreign relations. they know this better than anybody else in the entire world, virtually. so i have enormous faith in the ability of the ode egyptian people to come together and make this transig. they haven't had a chance to do this in 50 or 60 years. but so i think, but it's there it's a chrome sownally in them and you have hundreds of thousands of egyptians from around the world, nobel prize winners,

scientists, university presidents, the most unbelievably talented people who will come back to egypt now. and i don't think there is going stock any problem. the critical element as my two colleagues and friends have said, the critical element now is the transition. and we must make sure the egyptian people must make sure as the tunisians have tried to do that the transition takes place in a mechanism that includes a lot of civilians as well as the military. the military is held in high esteem in egypt as in most of the arab world. the police, those sort of things that people don't particularly like because they beat them up. but the army is held in high, the armed forces are held in high esteem. and this is the moment where the army will realize that it too can come out as a winner. i think one last point that critical thing to remember in other situations of transition, russia, south africa, other places like this around the world, one of the critical elements for a peaceful transition was to let the people who made money in the old regime keep their money by and large.

you have to be able to say okay this isn't the past. now we're changinging to the future. they took, they stole, no more stealing. let's now get a new system going. and this is hard to swallow but it may be one of the bitter pills that has to be swallowed so the army can keep what it has but then move on to a more democratic system. >> we have all talked about the historic role of egypt in the arab world so who is watching what has happened now and how will it be felt? >> oh, i think everybody in the arab world is much whatting this. other arab leaders are clearly watching this and they are clearly very nervous about what just happened in egypt and very probably up set that their good friend mubarak who probably was giving all of them advice in how to stay in power is now gone. and i think the israelies are probably watching this. and i think they may actually be fairly comfortable by the fact that there is a steady military hand at the rudder in these coming days. but again, i think the issue is that if egypt is going to

make this transingician, it's people in the region are going to be nervous and we just have to deal with that. because there's no way to get democracy which is messy and problematic, without ruffling some feathers in the region. but that's where we need to go. >> a brief last word on whose's watching here and how the impact will be felt. >> you want to use the analogy of the earthquake reverberations from this earthquake are going to be felt by every arab society, not only by the sighted and people but also by the ruler and most of the rulers if not all of them in the arab world are autocratic in varying degrees this is much important than the iranian revolution in 1979 which really reberserk. and arabs read these in arabic, they are influenced by egyptian culture. yes, it is true egypt lost its, you know, influence in the last few years and decades but it sustained a lot too. as a young man growing up in beirut early '60s, '70s, i used to partake in what

egypt used to offer in terms of art and literature and they were really trend seters. >> now they are again. >> and now they have the promise of regaining that, restoring that past glory. and we will all benefit from it. >> brown: all right. we will leave it here. hishem melhem, rami khouri, tarek masoud, thank you all very much. >> woodruff: still to come on the newshour: the auditions by conservative 2012 presidential contenders; plus, shields and brooks. but first, the other news of the day. here's kwame holman. >> holman: more than 100 people have died in the last two days of fighting in southern sudan, a military spokesman confirmed today. the casualties came when a breakaway militia faction ended a cease-fire wednesday, and carried out attacks in two towns. no new fighting was reported today. southern sudan will become an independent nation in july. in pakistan, police charged an american embassy employee detained there committed

"cold-blooded murder". raymond allen davis is in custody for shooting two pakistanis last month in lahore. he said they were trying to rob him. a pakistani judge today extended his detention by two weeks, despite u.s. claims that he has diplomatic immunity. a new protest against releasing davis erupted today in karachi. hundreds of islamist demonstrators took to the streets, calling for him to be hanged. the obama administration today laid out ways to get the government out of the mortgage market. they included eliminating the federal role in housing, except for the federal housing administration; a federal guarantee of mortgages only when the market is in trouble; or offering government mortgage insurance that kicks in only when private insurers cannot pay. the proposals come after the federally-backed mortgage providers fannie mae and freddie mac had to be bailed out, costing $150 billion. treasury secretary mothy geithner summed up the challenge.

>> we need to wind down nanny and freddy and substantially reduce the government's footprint in the housing markets. and that's a process has to happen good allly because they are now the dominant source of housing finance and we want to be careful that that process happened in a way that doesn't interveer with or impede the process of repairing the housing market that still has a long way to go. >> holman: many republicans want to abolish fannie and freddie. they blame the companies for fostering reckless lending that triggered the financial meltdown in 2008. texas congressman randy neugebauer. >> the american taxpayers are tired of bailing out all of these entities. they're ready for congress to take quick action on freddie and fannie and show them a plan on how we are going to get taxpayers off the hook and at the same token not having americans making other americans house payments. and so the quicker we can get the private markets active again, i think the quirk of the solution for freddie and fannie will

become very more clear. >> holman: experts say, in the end, reducing the government's role in housing could mean higher interest rates and greater costs for borrowers. wall street rallied today on the news from egypt. the dow jones industrial average gained nearly 44 points to close at 12,273. the nasdaq rose almost 19 points to close at 2,809. for the week, the dow and the nasdaq gained about 1.5%. and oil prices slipped back under $86 a barrel today, as the events in egypt raised hopes for stability in the middle east. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to judy. >> woodruff: we're still a year away from the iowa caucuses, but the first cattle call of the 2012 presidential campaign began this week. the one thing conservatives won't have heading into 2012 is a lack of options. for proof, look no further than this year's conservative

political action conference, or "c-pac," which got underway yesterday here in washington. by the time the three-day gathering of more than 11,000 activists wraps up tomorrow, as many as a dozen potential candidates will have taken their turn before the crowd. among them, former massachusetts governor mitt romney, who directed his remarks this morning not at his primary competition, but the man he would face if he made it to the general election. >> it's going to take more than new rhetoric to put americans back to work. it's going to take a new president. let me make this very clear. if i were to decide to run for president... ( cheers ) ...it sure wouldn't take me two years to wake up to the job crisis threatening america. >> woodruff: criticism of president obama and his policies was the constant theme. former house speaker newt gingrich also zeroed in on the economy.

>> why are we in a mess? why do we have over 9% unemployment? well, the obama administration is anti-jobs, anti-small business, anti-manufacturing, pro-trial lawyer, pro- bureaucrat, pro-deficit spending and pro-high taxes. what do you think is going to happen? ( applause ) >> woodruff: and minnesota congresswoman michele bachmann called repealing the president's health care overhaul "the driving motivation" of her life. >> we have seen president obama usher in socialism under his watch over the last two years. and "obamacare" is quite clearly the crowned jewel of socialism. >> woodruff: others, meanwhile, looked to introduce themselves to the crowd, with a recent poll showing name recognition to be a most helpful factor at this stage of the race. former minnesota governor tim pawlenty spoke of his blue- collar upbringing. >> so at a young age, i saw up

close the face of loss, the face of hardship, the face of losing a job, and i saw in the mirror something else-- the face of a very uncertain future. i know many americans are feeling that way today. i know that feeling; i've lived it. >> woodruff: and while two of the most talked about 2012 possibilities-- sarah palin and mike huckabee-- skipped the event, there was one surprise appearance. billionaire real estate developer and television personality donald trump said he, too, was thinking of running. >> and i can tell you this-- if i run and if i win, this country will be respected again. this country will be respected again, i can tell you that. >> woodruff: last november's republican victories have been a

shot in the arm for conservatives, and they've brought that new energy here. but it's not yet channeled toward a particular candidate. unlike most recent g.o.p. nomination battles, not only is there not a clear front-runner, the field seems wide open. paul towhey of plymouth meeting, pennsylvania, told us he was leaving his options open. >> i haven't signed on anybody, nor have i eliminated anybody. i really want to have the chance to listen to them all, or hear as many as i can, and then make an informed decision. >> woodruff: tiffany anderson of kingsport, tennessee, said she wasn't in a hurry to decide, either. >> i think people need to be a little bit more picky and more informed about who they put into government. >> woodruff: former pennsylvania senator rick santorum, who is seriously considering a run, said he's hearing a similar message as he travels the country. >> i think most people see it that way. they're wanting to listen to what people have to say.

the crowds that are coming to events for me are big and people are curious. >> woodruff: pamela punt of maple grove, minnesota, said she was looking for someone with vision and leadership skills. >> we're going to hear a lot of rhetoric and we're going to hear a lot of ideas. but what is really the critical component is, what are they capable of king action on? >> woodruff: veteran c-pac participant grover norquist, who runs the group americans for tax reform, said the lack of a clear front-runner isn't a problem for his party. >> it's wide open, and in one sense, it's very healthy for the modern conservative movement. everybody thinking of running is broadly acceptable to the reagan republican party. >> woodruff: but with so many choices, trying to narrow the field down to one candidate could have conservatives spinning their wheels for some time to come. >> lehrer: and to the analysis of shields and brooks--

syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. david, let's just get right to it. who is in fact going to be the republican nominee for president in 2012. >> donald trump. we can stop our coverage right now. we hid the absurd moment. i thought the gerbel wheel was the-- . >> lehrer: what do you make of this. what is going on here? >> a couple of things are notable for the republican field as judy mentioned. it's completely wide open. there is no structure to the race this is not even a front-runner the way there has been with mccain and bush. and it's all very late informing i at this because the congressional election. i personally think they are really very few plausible candidates there are a lot of candidates but donald trump is to the going to get the nomination an michelle bachman is not going to run. somebody people may not have focused on was quickly seen there, the senator from south dakota, ascending to a senior position in the senate so he may want to

stay but he is a smart guy, extremely good looking guy. john mccain always said if hi hisace i would be president right now. and he is a normal guy. and so someone like that, mitch daniels, governor of indiana and mitt romney, for my money those are-- there are not a lot of plausible candidates. maybe four, maybe five. >> lehrer: four or five plausible candidates, mark? >> well, jim, i don't know. i will defer to david when it comes to guys on the plaus ability of republican dan the candidates. the reality of the cpac meeting is that there were 11,000 people there at the hotel, registered for this conference. there were constituency in surgeon of the candidate. there is-- usually it is a candidate, they want to beat barack obama but they don't have anybody. what impressed me the most of all, what they did not discuss, as the world was dominated and riveted on what was going on in egypt, they didn't even address it

in their speeches. >> why do you think that is. >> i think it is a lack of self-confidence. a sure footed innocence. they didn't know what they wanted to say. they weren't sure, the only one who was really critical that i saw was rick santorum, the former senator from pennsylvania who basically took the line that has been developed by both sean hannity and glen beck and that was that barack obama by not supporting hosni mubarak in his hour of need, was turning back on a great ally. and that became the position. but there was nobody there really celebrating the moment of freedom. and taking that, picking up that banner. and that, i think that does belie a lack of confidence, sure footed machines on a terribly important issue. >> do you agree, david, do you agree with mark that what these folks, these 11,000 people want is a, maybe not the whole republican party but these 11,000, they-- it isn't about they have a certain set of issues that they want

a candidate -- >> it is not 11,000. these are true believers. these are not your republican committee persons who own car dealerships around the country. these are true believers. and they are going to have a hold and traditionally somebody like ron paul will win this thing. so they want the hard-core stuff. and so and they want to establish principles. and the other aspect of this group, increasingly true of the party activists as a whole is they are quite libertarian, not that interested in social issues. so they will tend to gravitate towards somebody like paul. just on the egypt thing, there was an interesting split among the glenn beck types, really w delusional ravings about the-- coming back and the conservative establishment saw this as the fulfillment of ronald reagan's democracy dream. there was that interesting split and there were fights between bill crystal and glenn beck. >> lehrer: crystal taking the position. >> saying this is wonderful what are you reefing about, it is not the taking over of the muslim fundamentalists.

and glenn beck for the first time you saw serious conservatives taking on beck and people like that and saying your theories are just wacky. >> lehrer: yeah, but is there any way to measure at this point just how powerful these 11,000 people and the views that they represent, how powerful they are going to be? in eventually deciding who is going to be the nominee? >> they are a multiplier. i would say that given the lack of form in ts race, what you don't want is to alienate this important constituency. these people are going to be players, participants. i don't necessarily agree, david's right, ron paul did win it before but it has been, ronald reagan was their favorite. this is a conservative group. it isn't loony toons there are some people there that you think belong in the flat earth society but you find that liberal groups as well. who are just kind of ideaologicallically driven. these are force multipliers. a lot of people in new hampshire. a lot of people there from

iowa. so you know they're goinging to be there in the first two determining contests where their numbers really matter. the lack of structure in this race, jim, is really fascinating. republicans always have a front-runner. i mean in 1980 it was ronald recognize an it was his turn. in '88 it was george herbert walker bush's turn. in '96 it was bob doyle's turn. george w. bush in 2080, when he returned it was john mccain's turn. the democrats are all over the lot. they meet somebody and nominate them. barack obama, come on up here. george mcgovern, who are you. but the republicans, and there is no front-runner and that really does leave a sense of uncertainty about the party. >> lehrer: how do you feel about the power of these folks? >> yeah, i think they have some power but they were not for john mccain. not by a long shot. and they were ambivalent about george w. bush by the second time. but the party has changed. and the party has moved a little in their direction.

so the libertarian, we have got to repeal health care that really has become a magnifying pog we are in the party. and they do speak to that. so they are sort of on the vanguard of the economic edge. they have to decide do we want somebody who we love or do we want somebody who can win. and right now they want/ -- >> what about in the house this week where there was a little bit av that split over a couple of issues where some tea party people said no, no, we want bigger cuts than the leadership wanted and whatever. is that representative of what is going to happen in other areas as well, do you think. >> the leadership and people like paul ryan are plenty conseative. but they say cutting the middle of a year is problematic. and a lot of the freshman said we are going to cut 85, or cut 100 billion or whatever it is going to be, we're goinging to do some more serious cuts. my big concern is that they are really unwilling to take on the stuff that seriously is contributing to the debt which is medicare, social security, especially medicare. and they are cutting all the stuff actually the people

kind of like. and that they are going to end up cutting kind of effective programs that will have no long-term fiscal benefit. and this is really the challenge that the republicans face. are they goinging to cut all the stuff that is pop larn and not solve the debt and right now they are heading down that direction. >> do you see a serious division. >> i do. i'm glad david made the point. social security is self-financing it is not. i mean there is a problem with the baby boomers, no question about it. but when we talk about entitlements, i mean the reality is that it is solvent and in fact it is bank roled the federal government if you look at the borrowing from social security. i think, gym, what-- jim what we see, there is a real problem for the republicans in the house leadership. because any new leadership when they take over, there is a question of did they develop confidence in themselves, in each other, as a coheesive group. and it just contrasts to

when nancy pelosi took over the house in 2006, the first 100 hours or so they passed the student loan bill. they passed an increase in the minimum yaj wage, veteran benefit, republicans are kind of feeling their bay along. and they are stumbling a little bit. there is a question of confidence with john boehner, how much he can have in his leadership when they can't count and they lose two floor votes this week. and the freshman that david talked about, some 87 strong, they have to be socialized. they have to be made part of a coheesive unit and they're not there yet. and they do want-- they want to cut bigger. >> just quickly i think a pit gating fact certificate to the good. pelosi really-- power in the speakers office, boehner wed not do that. so in some degree having fights and losses is a good thing for the institution. >> lehrer: let's go finally back to egypt. david what word would you

use historic, cosmic or whatever. >> cosmicly historic, mehta cosmic. you know, i mean hishem melham said it-- mel hem said it earlier there are just a few countries in the middle of the beating heart of the middle east. they are both stumbling in some form toward democracy and that is bound to have huge ripples. the second is if take a long historical sweep, you go back to about 1974 when the portuguese dictatorship fechlt you go around the world. 85 oughtocracies have fallen. >> 58. >> 100 countries have seen threats it to autocrassies and 58 have fallen. they haven't all made it, some are sort of in a gray zone in the middle but when historians hook back they will be struck by how this contagion this leapt up around the world in places unexpected. and people have a sense in their head that i want to be a in a certain kind of country, democratic and

openment and if i don't live in that country, i feel humiliated and that is a mental change that swept the room. >> lehrer: mark? >> joyful, ecstatic. it's bottom up. this wasn't orchestrated from the top. no artillery no carpet bombing, no ieds unlike iraq. no body counts. just a remarkable, remarkable historic achievement. and i think that it puts a brand-new face for those outside of the middle east on islam. i mean this is al qaeda hates what happened, is happening right now in egypt. i mean this is an achievement of such single proportion, you can't-- this is what, 90% islamic nation. and you look at the muslim faith and you loonl at that right now and you say wait a minute, how different can they be? they crave democracy. self-determination. >> secular.

>> it is just a remarkable moment. and encouraging. >> lehrer: how much responsibility or should i say credit, if any is due the government of the united states of america. >> minimal. >> lehrer: minimal? >> i think minimal. i think the president there were moments during the past several weeks where he seemed to be on the right side but also moments when he was hedging. and more importantly in the past two years or six years or five years both administrations a withdrawal of support from the democratic portions, a withdrawal of support from the civil society. i think we have to have a lot more confidence in all of these countries and those forces and in being on the right side of history and i mentioned the 85 that fell, with only 30 or 40 transitioned to democracy. it depends on the strength of institutions so now it is more important what the u.s. does now than what it did in the last few years. and do we help political parties form all kinds of political parties do. we help civil society form. are we giving the sort of electoral advice internationally that can be

given. that's really the cution thing, not what just happened. >> how do you feel. >> i think we saw the limits of the united states influence. and i don't argue with david. i do think the president was under enormous pressure from strong friends of israel from strong friends from other allies in that region. not to go fast. i think that was a factor that was not publicized but was very real. and i sense today in his moment. >> the fear being -- >> that the chaos and the important role that egypt has played inician real, on its border, as it is recognizing jimmy carter, the camp david agreements but in addition to that, jim, i think that there was a sense of exhilaration today in the president, almost liberation. the nuances and calibrated, calculated statements. it was really a celebration on his part. and the statement to the people of egypt. >> i just hope he persuaded himself and he embraces that policy from here on out.

>> david, mark, thank you both. >> woodruff: finally tonight, teacher-driven success stories in the classroom. that's the focus of tonight's edition of the pbs program "need to know." this excerpt tells the story of an academic transformation that began with a gym teacher. the correspondent is jon meacham. within start. >> reporter: at namerville central, a public high school of nearly 3,000 students, educators believe exercise will not only get kids fit, but will improve learning and academic performance. and they're putting that idea into practice for a group of students who struggle in reading and in math. at 7:45 a.m. these fshman and sophomores start the day in the gym. >> get your hearth rate up. >> reporter: the key is to get their heart rates up right before their most

difficult classes. >> right now i'm riding the bike to get at least 20 minutes in the zone. >> the whole goal is to get them at 145 to 185 beats per minute for their heart rate. >> reporter: once she has hit her target heart rate zone she heads to a class to improve reading comprehension. >> here is an example of a text to world "connection. and this is what you will be doing in your journals. >> reporter: then comes prealgebra. >> let's look at number 21. you cross reduce -- >> i like gym in the morning, how it refreshes me. i don't doze off a lot so i focus more on to the teacher, more on the lesson, more on everything. >> reporter: paul is the brains behind the program. he was the physical education coordinator here for 26 years. he says some teachers were skeptical when he first came up with the idea. >> they were afraid that the kids would be so hyped up coming out of pe going into

the next class that they wouldn't be able to teach them well. so yeah, skeptics, absolutely. they thought we were weird. >> reporter: but in the six years since the program began, the results speak for themselvesment on average, kids who signed up for physical education directly before reading comprehension read half ace year ahead of those who opted out of the exercise program. >> and in math, the improvements were even more dramatic. >> students with the benefit of pe before prealgebra consistently did better, improve -- to 4 times more than their peers on standardized tests. it is something that he thinks other educators need to know about. >> people are dropping pe because test scores are failing. that's not the approach. that's the exact opposite of what you need to do to be successful. >> and he's not just talking about that group of students. when it comes to academics, the district of namerville is one of the best in the state. he believes one of the key

reasons is that all kids here take a fitness-based pe program. and now he's trying to spread that idea to other schools. >> need to know airs tonight >> woodruff: "need to know" airs tonight on most pbs stations. >> lehrer: again, the major story of the day: egypt erupted in joyous celebrations after president mubarak resigned and handed power to the military. the country's supreme military council promised to pave the way to a democratic government. and president obama welcomed the outcome in cairo. he said egyptians inspired the world with their commitment to non-violent change. and now to kwame holman for what's on the newshour onlie. kwame. >> holman: on egypt, we've gathered more reaction to the sweeping changes, and we look back at mubarak's time in office. on "art beat," jeff asks three young authors about the state of writing and publishing. "patchwork nation" looks at rising foreclosure numbers and falling unemployment in wealthy suburbs. all that and more is on our web

site, newshour.pbs.org. judy. >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. on monday, we'll talk to budget director jack lew about the obama administration's new blueprint for federal spending. i'm judy woodruff. >> lehrer: and i'm jim lehrer. "washington week" can be seen later this evening on most pbs stations. we'll see you online, and again here monday evening. have a nice weekend. thank you and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by:

>> pacific life-- the power to help you succeed. >> i mean, where would we be without small businesses? >> we need small businesses. >> they're the ones that help drive growth. >> like electricians, mechanics, carpenters. >> they strengthen our communities. >> every year, chevron spends billions with small businesses. that goes right to the heart of local communities, providing jobs, keeping people at work. they depend on us. >> the economy depends on them. >> and we depend on them. and by toyota. >> bnsf railway. and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and

foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org