is well organized and stands to gain from an accelerated timetable for elections. >> today the egyptians got their freed a.m. back to determine their fate. >> brown: but some secular and liberal leaders of the uprising against mubarak opposed the referendum claiming the measures don't go far enough. opponents included two likely presidential candidates arab league secretary general mussa and nobel peace laureate el baradei whose saturday visit to a polling station was cut short by a mob throwing bottles and rocks at him as he waded through a crowd. we're joined by the assistant professor of arab politics at georgetown university who recently returned from a visit to egypt.

welcome back. >> clearly. >> brown: clearly an historic moment. certainly unlike any recent, recent election in egypt. >> that's right. there haven't been free and fair governmental national elections iny qipt for 60-some years. regardless of what the outcome was, people's votes counted. that's certainly significant. >> brown: the military remains in control of the government. these amendments were proposed by a committee that the military put together. it provoked some divisions as we said. explain the arguments for and against. >> certainly. the arguments against, which were led by a broad range of opposition parties and opposition groups, progressive political figures and so on, were that the constitutional amendments don't go far enough, that they limit themselvess to the procedures of how the president is elected as opposed to dealing with presidential powers. one of the most difficult things about the last 30 or 40 years in egypt has been that the president has tremendous

powers, sweeping powers to imprison people, to close newspapers, declare states of emergency at his will. it was an imperial presidency. so one of the criticisms was that the constitution didn't go far enough. egypt needs a new constitution. also that by voting yes on this constitutional amendment package, parliamentary elections and presidential elections would occur too quickly and that the new political movements and groups, the youth forces that led the revolution and some of the other political parties, wouldn't be prepared, wouldn't have enough time to organize for those elections and the only groups that are organized on the ground right now and that would then take advantage of early elections would be remnants of the old regime and the muslim brotherhood. >> brown: that explains the post election analysis we've heard that this does... the brotherhood, for example, as one of the parties that can

benefit most. >> that's correct. i think it would be a mistake, however, to think that because the brotherhood supported the constitutional amendments that it was a 77% outcome. i don't think that's the case at all. but certainly the brotherhood pushed for a yes on these amendments but they've also declared and there's every indication to believe them that will only contest 35% of the seats in the upcoming parliamentary election. that's been their pattern in the past. >> brown: the military government. what is their stance now? they keep saying they want to hand back power as quickly as possible. >> i think that's true. i think that, you know, being in charge of egypt right now, of course, is a difficult politically sensitive matter. it opens them up to criticism. they want a process in place. they want to hand over power, i think, to an elected government, a parliament and a president relatively soon. they said six months. >> brown: what does that mean? what happens next, right? >> sure. they've said there will be a

constitutional declaration later this week, but the previous announcements were that the next steps in this process are parliamentary elections in june, followed by presidential elections in august. of course the parliament that is elected as your piece suggested will elect a 100- person body to draft a new constitution. >> brown: in the coming weeks, the coming months you expect to see what? more political parties forming, reaching out to the people? >> oh, i think it will be incredibly vibrant politically. new political parties forming, coalitions forming, of course presidential candidates have already announced individuals that they want to stand in elections. and then all kinds of movement having to do with specifics of new political parties law, calls for the end of the emergency law before these elections take place. things of that nature. >> brown: we will watch, of course.

thanks again. >> you're welcome. >> ifill: >> ifill: and ray suarez has the story in yemen. >> suarez: the nation at the tip of the arabian peninsa has become a haven for al qaeda but also a quiet u.s. ally in the fight against terrorism. now, its ruler of more than 30 years is under pressure from demonstrators, his generals, and diplomats to step aside. for more, we turn to christopher boucek, an associate in the middle east program of the carnegie endowment for international peace, and a frequent visitor to yemen. do these defections, regular resignation represent a real turning point in the strugate of the opposition against the president of yemen. >> a week ago i would have said no but i think there's a cumulative effect. what we're seeing today with the large number of foreign ambassadors that have resigned there's a cumulative effect. it shows decreasing support for the president and the regime. >> suarez: at the same time as major general resigned and took his armored division to

key sights in the capital, other high-ranking generals declared their allegiance to the president. does this bring yemen one step closer to civil war? >> i think there's always been a real concern thatiolence could escalate. you'd have an unintended escalation of violence. there are too many guns and too many grievances in yemen. there are very significant power players lined up on either side of this. earlier today i think there's a very, very real fear that things would turn very violent and very bloody. speaking with people in yemen a few hours ago it sounds like tensions are reduced somewhat. >> suarez: is this president who has been in office for 32 years, president saleh, the type of leader who is ready to turn the guns on his own people? >> i don't think so. i think when we look at what's happened over the last several weeks and months, we see that the president has for most purposes until last weekend tried to manage this situation, i believe. i think he's tried to manage the process.

ultimately i think this will be a negotiated settlement where you have yemen's power working to come to a settlement. it's obvious that the president cannot stay in power until 2013. this cannot go on for two more years. that's been moved up an awful lot in light of today's events and what happened over the weekend. >> suarez: is this more like tunisia, more like egypt? or still has the potential to be more like libya? >> i think we don't know. honestly, no one knows what will happen in the yemen. it seems clear that the president will not last much longer the way things are going. it is very clear that while there is a potential for violence to get out of hand-- and i don't think anybody wants it to get that far-- i think the fear is that it may escalate unintended. >> suarez: today the deputy national security advisor ben rhodes made what would seem to be america's strongest statement yet. our concern in the immediate term has been with the violence.

this should be channeled into a political dialogue. where is the united states in all of this? salae is an ally, isn't he? >> i think for our policy on yemen has been terrorism and security and al qaeda in a arabian peninsula to the exclusion of almost everything else. despite what people in the administration say we've been focused on terrorism. we've not been focused on the challenges such as unemployment, government abuses, corruption. i think these are the things that will bring down the state. al qaeda is our problem. it's not yemen's biggest problem. i think we need to not have a dialogue that we support the government and will provide them military and security assistance at the expense of the people. everyone sees that we're supporting the regime at the expense of the people. >> suarez: does instability in yemen also threaten a sort of open playground for the very forces that the united states

has been worried about in that part of the arabian peninsula? >> absolutely. i think as you see the government's capacity decrease and you see their presence erode from throughout parts of the country and bigger cities you see the spaces in between get larger and larger. it's those spaces that al qaeda or other organizations or other oppositions take root. it's not just an issue in yemen but a regional issue and a domestic security issue in this country. it is a threat to security. >> suarez: this is not a country dotted with big cities or a densely populated place. when we see things happening in the capital, what do we know about what's happening in small towns and villages scattered across arid land. >> the majority of the foreign reporters were expelled last week. there are very few foreign reporters in the country right now. no foreign bureaus. we know very little about what's going on in much of the country. it's a place where westerners and americans more and more did not go to.

we do know what's going on in the capital. i think this is not just happening in the capital. it's in other places too. >> suarez: thanks for joining us, christopher boucek. >> thank you. >> lehrer: now, some perspective on the mideast turmoil from two former national security advisors. zbigniew brzezinski held that post for president carter. he's now a counselor at the center for strategic and international studies. and brent scowcroft had the same job during the george h.w. bush administration. he now has his own consulting firm. dr. brzezinski, are all of these events-- egypt, yemen, add in bahrain and syria as well as libya obviously-- are they all connected? >> they are, of course, all connected in a way. but also, of course, each of them has its own independent dimension. still i think we're dealing with a phenomenon which, if

not handled correctly, can either plunge the region into increasing violence, disarray, or alternatively after a period of time begins to settle and evolve and stabilize. how we play and how our friends play and how the international community plays it and ultimately also how the arab league plays it is absolutely critically important. >> lehrer: where do you come down on this, general skowcroft as to whether or not this is all part of one loosely connected revolution? >> i think it's part of one loosely connected revolution in this sense: what we're seeing now is the impact of globalization in terms of communication because now the world is politicized. for most of our history, the average man didn't know what was going on in anything other than his own village. he didn't care much. now everybody is within

eyesight of a tv or earshot of a radio. they hear what's going on sfim. >> lehrer: one of those little instruments. >> that's right. they're activated by it. in addition, the devices like facebook make it possible to organize a demonstration. you can contact a million people in 30 minutes. turn out in a square at 10:00 in the morning. this is unique. i think that's the reason that the fruit peddler in tunisia has swept the region. i think it's a new phenomenon that we're going to have to deal with from now on. >> lehrer: back to your point, dr. brzezinski, how the united states... is there a u.s. policy that could be formed that would accommodate each one of these developments and it would all fit under their very neatly? >> i don't think we can dominate that process because

that process is autonomous. it's part of history. it's part of a phenomenon i've been writing about for years, the global political awakening of different parts of the world becoming activated the way brent just described it. but we shouldn't elude ourselves into thinking that it is inevitably pointed in a democratic direction. because typically the first phase of this political awakening i've been talking tends to be extremist, fervent, euphoric but potentially very dangerous. and this is why, for example, right now i think we're caught in a situation in which choices seem to be bad. but in my mind at least one is worse than the other. if we didn't react, for example, to what qaddafi was about to do in benghazi and elsewhere, we might have precipitated a situation in which others elsewhere in places at play would act similarly. so we had to make a difficult choice. it came slowly. it still isn't clearly

articulated. i'm somewhat in agreement with senator lugar who today talked about the need for a clearer statement of our goals. but i think we are pointed in the right direction. >> lehrer: do you agree? pointed in the right direction. >> i'm not sure we are, no. i think we know... we're talking about intervening militarily in libya. >> yes, yes. we know little about the opposition in most of these places. one thank that is clear is that they are unified on getting rid of the leadership. in most of these places. what's not clear is what they represent afterwards. as dr. brzezinski said frequently the aftermath of throwing out the old bad guy is a period of turmoil and the success of the introduction of the toughest elements who know how to run a society. that's one of the things that we have to be concerned about. >> lehrer: what about the other side of the coin, to sit back and have done nothing while people were slaughtered

in benghazi? >> okay. everywhere that there are people killed, the united stas needs to intervene? how about zimbabwe? you know, you have the same kind of circumstances. i think the pressures were great. qaddafi is a man that is easy to hate. but this is not the only place there's violence in the region. there's violence in yemen. violence in bahrain. do we follow the same thing that we're going to protect the protestors at any cost? >> lehrer: that's the question, is it not? >> obviously you can't intervene everywhere. you don't conclude that you interfere nowhere. you have to make a judgment. what are the circumstances? and this particular case, once it became clear that there was a significant uprising in libya and once it became clear that qaddafi was setting out to crush it and to crush it absolutely brutally, not to respond to that would not only

be morally dubious but it would be politically questionable because its after effects would be felt in bahrain in yemen, perhaps even in egypt. and elsewhere. we have tunisia, algeria and so forth. remember, the arab league came out quite clearly in opposing what he was doing. so we had no choice. now how we go on from here is a difficult question. we have to define our objectives. my own gut feeling is that now that we're engaged, we have to make certain that the outcome is not a divided libya. it's not a civil war. nor is it an entrenched fierce and revengeful qaddafi in power. >> lehrer: is that your point, general skowcroft, that we can't make sure of all those things. >> we can't make sure. first of all, we are not unified about what we're about. we, the british and the french, have described it somewhat

differently. the germans abstained on the u.n. resolution. the italians have gone back and forth on whether they would let their air bases be used. the turks have grave reservations. and even the arab league who called for intervention called for us to intervene not them to intervene. and even within the arab league there's... the problem is there's no unity on what it is we're trying to do. are we trying to protect civilians? are we trying to throw out qaddafi? are we going to end up owning libya like we own iraq, like we own afghanistan? is it going to be "our" problem? >> lehrer: what about your communications issue turned the other way, that the people in bahrain... if the... devil's advocate question. if the u.s. and the others did not intervene, that would send

a message to somebody in bahrain and to yemen and all the others, aha, they're going to sit back. we can do anything we want to. we can kill our people too. if we want to. >> that's right. but in bahrain if we intervene, are we going to intervene to throw out the king? in bahrain? who is being supported with saudi troops? >> lehrer: good question. dr. brzezinski. >> look, we are where we are, right? to now stop and disengage it would be a calamity for us and for the region and even for the arab league which endorsed it. now we have to ask ourselves very seriously what lugar was asking this afternoon. what are our objectives? in my judgment that objective has to be an outcome which permits in libya a free political choice. under the sponsorship hopefully of the arab league and also the united nations, a situation in which qaddafi is no longer a serious player.

perhaps through the degradation of his armed forces and at the same time surreptitious approaches of the libyan military who can split his military because many of his generals must be concerned that about to lose an army and create a situation which in the end looks like a success for us and for the wider principles that we're trying to promote. at this stage to turn back and simply to say this is a terrible mistake we shouldn't have done it would be a disaster. >> lehrer: the dice has been rolled. >> clearly they've been rolled. they were rolled several days when the military action started. they were rolled even a few days earlier when there was a vote by the united nations which seemed to authorize several things at the same time giving those who were prepared to act an enormous degree of latitude and perhaps that in part is some of the source of the confusion. >> lehrer: do you agree, general, that like it or not, opposed to it as policy as you are, that right now there's no

choice but to move on. >> right now there is no choice but to move on. i just wish we had thought more seriously strategically down the road five years where are we likely to be? first of all, a no-fly zone by itself is unlikely to defeat qaddafi. our director of national intelligence said even in light of a no-fly zone, he's likely to win. that means we're going to have to do something else. what i worry about-- and it's maybe it's hampering because i agree with dr. brzezinski, we are on a course now and we probably have to continue it. but i hope we will continue it with a more thoughtful view of all the other things that may happen as we go down this

course. >> lehrer: gentlemen, thank you very much. >> ifill: engineers in japan pressed forward today with efforts to restore power to that crippled nuclear plant. they made progress over the weekend toward getting the cooling system back on. in washington, a top official with the nuclear regulatory commission said three of the six reactors at the fukushima plant have damage to cores. but he said all are contained, and it appears emergency crews are getting closer to controlling the situation. >> we believe that the spent fuel pools on units three and four-- which had been two components of particular fety concern-- that the situation there is stabilizing, and that the containment in all three units-- one, two, and three-- appear to be functional, and that there's water being injected into the reactor vessels in units one, two, and three.

>> lehrer: at one point today, smoke billowed from two of the reactors, but officials reported no increase in radiation. meanwhile, police said the death toll from the earthquake and tsunami has reached 8,800, and could top 18,000. for the survivors, day-to-day living has become a grinding struggle. alex thomson of independent television news reports from taro on the northeastern coast. >> reporter: fuel shortages remain serious here. 250 cars two miles to get a 7 liter ration. emergency volunteers do get fuel, but even they are finding it hard. we picked up with this delivery of rice, noodles and nappies. the old people's home survived the tsunami so now it's home for more than old people. 30 homeless families also bill

ited here now. unloading, a port worker here before the port was obliterated. now one more though of the army of volunteers getting japan moving. his family is safe but his house is destroyed. as for work at the port when the port has been wrecked? >> well, i have no idea when i'll be working again. >> reporter: back in what was taro, the army are going the extra mile too. mostly to recover bodies here. they are recovering a wardrobe item by item. and a solution of sorts here to what could well be the world's biggest rubbish problem. round the clock they cart the rubble off to the edge of town. and they're dumping it in the town's baseball stayed up. they're not going to play

baseball here anymore. fringed ironically by the tsunami walls which were inadequate. the big question being asked up and down japan now not just about how to make the sea defenses adequate but whether people should be living in areas like this at all. the port's website still boasts that the vast sea walls here will stand any tsunami. they took 25 years to build. the massive st. louis gate capable of withstanding anything. look at those gates today. busted open. high grade steel contorted like cheap plastic. look at the tsunami walls they were so proud of. no wonder the debate here is beginning. not about how to rebuild and redefend. but whether to. >> ifill: judy woodruff has more about the efforts to contain the problems at the nuclear plants. >> woodruff: and for that we're joined by olli heinonen. he served as deputy director

general for the international atomic energy agency. he now teaches at harvard university's kennedy school. mr. heinonen, thanks very much for being with us. there was the bad news about smoke coming out of some of these reactors today but then there seemed to be some good news that the pumps are working in a couple of the reactors, that the power lines are restored. how significant is all this? >> first of all, it is very serious as we heard. this is by far not resolved but we see that the engineers are working hard. once they get the power resred properly, they can look how the equipment has been damaged, which equipment can be used and which equipment needs to be replaced. then we start to see light at the end of this long long tunnel. >> woodruff: when we hear the man at the nuclear regulatory

commission saying that there is, i think he used the term, containment is now functional in three of the reactors, what does that mean? >> it means that the fuel which was in the reactor itself is contain properly so there is no emergency to that end. but the company still has to maintain and restore the adequate cooling of those reactors for those four units which we mentioned. this is still a big work to be done. the additional problems are those spent fuels which are at the top of the reactor in the reactor halls which don't have any containment and which have been artificially cooled in the last few days using water which has been dropped from the helicopters or brought by fire brigades in place. that is a serious problem which also needs to be fixed before we can start the real recovery operations. >> woodruff: it's still all about getting enough water back in these reactors?

>> that's what it is all about. it only can come when there is adequate electricity in the place. >> woodruff: so do we know enough to know what has to be done physically from an engineering standpoint to get things to a place where it's safe? >> i think at this point in time, they are still doing damage assessment because the radiation levels are fairly high there. they don't which equipment is functional, which is damaged beyond repair and needs to be replaced. this will take a few days of time before they can come to this conclusion. then we can go to the routine recovery operations. before that, we have this somewhat temporary arrangement there in the place. >> woodruff: it's interesting. you speak about the radiation levels being high because we also heard today the spokesman with the international atomic energy agency said it was

encouraging that radiation levels are at, i think he used the term, background levels in dozens of japanese cities. >> that's true but i was talking about the radiation level for those people who do the recovery operations at the reactors and try to stabilize them. then the radiation outside of the fukushima power plant, 30 kilometer zone, they indeed have come in the last few days down. this is encouraging. >> woodruff: let me ask you also about the food reports because we hear on the one hand that milk, green vegetables that are being grown in the area near the reactors, the water supply, that there's been some radioactive contamination. on the other hand, we hear that these levels are not dangerous to humans. so how concerned should people be? >> i think that the people

should follow the recommendations of the authorities. they have the best knowledge in the current situation. i also see that it has done its independent evaluation. look on those and the world health organization. so i think that this part of the problem is under control. provided that nothing changes at the nuclear power plants because if there are more releases, then all this needs to change. >> woodruff: at this point, doctor, what are the questions that you would like to have answered in the coming days? >> we need to understand what's the real damage to these reactors, how to fix those in such a way that we can cool the fuel on reactor halls and cool the reactors and stabilize the situation. those facts only come actually when the electricity is brought on so the engineers

can see what levels in various places, which are the temperatures, which are the radiation, so they can start with the cleaning operations. >> woodruff: we thank you once again for being with us. we appreciate it. >> thank you very much indeed. >> lehrer: again, the other major developments of the day. a coalition led by the u.s. hit libya with a dozen more cruise missiles. president obama said other countries would take over leadership of the operation within days. and in yemen, a number of senior military commanders defected to the opposition and demanded president saleh step down. and to hari sreenivasan, for what's on the newshour online. hari? >> sreenivasan: there's more on japan, including a map of electricity outages in areas hit by the earthquake and tsunami. on libya, watch the full defense department briefing on the military mission now under way, and read our guide to the

qaddafis, exploring the libyan leader's family tree. plus, this week marks the one- year anniversary of the new health care reform law. tell us what questions you still have about the legislation and how it's affected you. we'll pose them to experts on our "rx for reform" page. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. gwen? >> ifill: and that's the newshour for tonight. on tuesday, we'll look at the struggle to find enough clean water in the mega-city of dhaka in bangladesh. i'm gwen ifill. >> lehrer: and i'm jim lehrer. we'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. thank you, and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> oil companies make huge profits. >> last year, chevron made a lot of money. >> where does it go? >> every penny and more went into bringing energy to the world. >> the economy is tough right now, everywhere. >> we pumped $21 million into local economies, into small businesses, communities, equipment, materials. >> that money could make a big

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