go on. now, that goes back to our -- >> tomorrow morning. >> but that goes back to our iowa as a predictor issue, and what is your words of wisdom on that? >> i think it is less of a predictor, perhaps than it has been in the past. >> michael? >> yes. and i think, you know, we have heard it from almost everyone, even ron paul during the last two days was asked does he envision himself as president, he said, well, probably not. this could be the man who wins the iowa caucus tonight. >> all right. thanks to all three of you and now back to judy. >> so thank you, jeff, and let's go now to the convention center in downtown des moines, iowa, media central for the journalist whose are covering these caucuses tonight and joining us from there is matthew strong, he is chairman of the iowa republican party. matt strong, thank you for talking with us. what do you make of these early numbers? >> well, good evening, judy, actually, i just return from my

own precinct up in iowa which is a suburb just north of december moins and i think what we saw up there mirrors mirrors what we are seeing across the state and new people showing up at the caucus, 27 percent of the people attended were new republican registrants tonight and at least in my precinct romney won followed by santorum, actually followed by newt gingrich and then ron paul, so i think we saw a got robust attendance compared to 2008, at least in my precinct, we are on pace to have a record turnout across the state and of course as a results show it is way too close zero to to call between ron paul, romney and santorum so buckle up it could be a wild ride for at least an hour or so. >> well, we are going to keep watching until all of the numbers are counted, matt strong, tell me which you think these new voters are showing up at the caucuses, what is it about this year? how do you explain it? >> i think there are two things, one is obviously we have seen a growth in the republican party

here in iowa, 34 straight months of republican registration gain so we have more iowans that are identifying with the party and the candidates, there is no question that ron paul had a specific turnout planned with independents and most of that is driven by what we have seen relative to the national debt, my at the discussion earlier was talking about foreign policy but if you look at what ron paul ads have been he focused on cutting a trillion dollars in spending, shutting down five federal agencies and talking to people at my caucus caucusing for ron paul issues reled t shrinking washington that motivated them to come out tonight. >> matt, i have been covering these caucuses for a number of years, and it seems to me that the television ads of the candidates who could afford to do it have been more of a factor this year than in the past, how do you read that? and what do you think about how negative many of them have been? >> yes , there is no question, i think, in the advent of super pac e.r.a., united with more

unlimited corporate spending it has changed this the landscape in the caucus campaign and i think every candidate has to fight two fronts, not just retail politics when you look at romney and a paul or santorum they had a constant presence on the ground but you have to be prepared to wage the air war and i think iowa is just the new frontier in what we will see in politics all across the country. >> do you think it has been too negative? >> well, you know, it is a fine line. at the end of the day i believe a competitive primary will yield our strongest possible general election mom knee against barack obama, and i know what weighs for our candidate on the other, waits for our candidate and i know the president obama is gearing one their own super pac so we need a battle-tested candidate. >> i want to ask you, matt strong, about the fact that iowa voters seem to have been so undecided for so long in this election year, how do you

explain that and to what extent does that either strengthen or weaken whoever wins or comes in close coming out of iowa? >> yes, judy, i think there were a couple of things, it was a very unusual caucus campaign because the candidates did not do the amount of retailing politicking we are used to in iowa, i there at this debates had something to do that, we talk about the extensive television advertising, one reason it was such a late-breaking opportunity here, they wanted to see the candidates up close in question and ask the tough questions we are used to do every four or eight years, secondarily, you know, i just think at the end of the day, iowa republicans want to do two things, they want to find a candidate to beat barack obama next november but they also want to send a message and i think you see that with the top three candidates that are bunched up that each of them has run very aggressive campaigns here talking about what we need to do to shrink the federal debt, both romney and paul, their ad campaigns specifically focused on the debt issue, so

even though things are relatively good economically in iowa i think we have the same concerns most americans do about a government that is not living within its means. >> and just finally, if the final results are as bunch at the top as they are now, does that mean nobody really gets a lift coming out ofhestate and has iowa resolved the presidential selection process when all is said and done? >> well, you know, i like to point out we are just the first step in the process, we are not designed to be the decider, traditionally we do play the role of winnowing the field so it wouldn't surprise me if you had more attention on the top three finishers out of iowa, once again, iowa could play that role of winnowing the field as we move on to south carolina and north carolina. >> all right. well we will leave it there, matt strong is the chairman of the iowa republan rty and goodto s you, and thank you for stopping by and talk to you later tonight. thank you. >> thanks, judy. >> thanks, judy and now we are

back to stuart rothenberg and kristina bellatoni. >> we are now up to 26 percent of the vote, that is the news, more amazing thing is we still have so few -- we still have this dead heat between romney, santorum and paul, take a look at that. >> what do you make of it, stu? >> it is going to be tight and tight all night, i mean, when you have this chunk of the vote in and what we have seen from the entrance polls it looks like photo finish, this is a kentucky derby, i don't know, somebody is going to win by a nose but in politics it is not quite that clear-cut. and the fact that we have three contenders who are seemingly headed for the finish line at the same time, i think that probably makes it worse for the people who aren't close behind at their heels because if you add those numbers up, we talk about 70 percent of the vote right there, if my math is pretty close. >> yes.

>> and, you know, they are not much left for the rest of the field. >> we have a few more votes since you started talking, still a dead heat, kristina. >> yes when you drill down on the precincts which you can find on our web site it is helpful to see there is just a handful of votes that are for bachmann and a few huntsman, the former governor. >> yes, he is definitely ceded "want you are seeing this as such a situation in flux right now. >> part of the big discussion we have been hearing and all of the polls leading up to this and some of the entrance numbers we have seen tonight is people want to vote no matter who they support they want to vote for the people who they think can defeat barack obama. >> have we seen any sign that the person who they think is that person, often mitt romney, is benefitting from that? >> on the entrance polls yes there is evidence of that, the entrance polls have asked the question of what is most important candidate quality four years ago, electability was in

the single digits, seven or eight percent, and now it is can defeat president obama, not quite one in three but three in ten, close to 30 percent of responrespondents say at this p, the numbers may change slightly but are saying that electability is a big deal to them. >> and in second place in that category is voters who are going for newt gingrich which is interesting because he is obviously looking at about fourth place here but 21 percent, according to this entrance poll, are saying they voted on electability and that's why they picked -- >> is it possible, kristina, to look at this map and begin to isolate some of the support for some of tse cdidate it is rely hard to know that romney seems to be scattered kind of around the state, he is in green, ron paul also with some strength in, we assume, right around des moines, interes interestingly, interestingly enough and santorum seems to be scattered strongly around the state. >> none of these counties have

been full -- or the counties have been fully counted yet so you have in many cases half of the precincts have reported so the numbers are rapidly changing the, western part of the state, particularly this sioux city area, romney won all of that, in 2008 and we are not seeing any numbers from there yet, so that could really change these dramatically if those come in strongly for him. and then th the central part ofe state is what mike huckabee was able to capture in 2,00 2008, at of the core evangelical vote and you have a lot of candidates now on top with these early returns. >> i think it is fair to say the color pallet is confused compared to what we woul we woue expected compared to what we saw four years ago, now maybe, maybe the colors will align the way we think that th are supposed to align on the basis of four years ago, but right now it is odd. >> perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, this is kind of in keeping with how volatile this race has been all along. >> it is a different kind of race than four years ago, isn't it somewhere you had a

conservative, mike huckabee, who had the evangelicals and now the republican electorate and to some extent the new independent voters have scattered across a number of candidates. >> we are just under a third of the vote in and going to keep monitoring it and we will get back with some more, thank you, stu and kristina. >> >> next, the crackdown on syrian dissidents this time in the united states. while the death toll in syria has now climbed over 5,000, another sinister side of the struggle is playing out right here at home. >> we report. >> sreenivasan: it's an anthem filled with meaning for syrian- american virtuoso. among the words to his composition entitled "my

homeland." when will i see you free? he played it before hundreds protesting outside the white house this summer against the regime of al assad and in support of the uprising. though he says the song intends a global message, his appearance and his performance may have almost cost his parents their lives back home in damascus. >> when i performed at the white house, a few hours later the syrian security forces of that regime attacked my parents. here's a regime who couldn't stand a five-minute song. >> sreenivasan: did you expect them to go after your parents? >> yes. i actually warned my parents. i'm going to be performing. watch out. >> sreenivasan: his 73-year-old father and his 66-year-old mother were attacked in their damascus home in late july. an assault documented with photos and video a short time later.

>> thank god they have didn't kill them. they handcuffed his hands. they made him watch my mom being beaten. >> sreenivasan: he had tape placed over his mouth. handcuffed. beaten. >> that's my dad. that's my mom after the attack. >> sreenivasan: she's bleeding from her eye and her head. >> you can see her neck too. >> sreenivasan: shortly after the attack, his parents were granted emergency visas to be with their son here in the u.s. he's convinced it was not random thuggery or even rime loyalists but an attack orchestrated by the security forces of assad. he contends that the attackers acted on information gathered here in the united states. he has feared for his own safety here and perhaps with good reason. he's received threatening phone calls and his own website was hacked in mid december by the syrian electronic army which plastered a menacing message across the page.

how do you know that your parents were targeted because of what you did in washington? >> when they were beating my mom she was screaming, why are you killing me? why are you hitting me? they said we're doing this to teach you a lesson: because your son is demonstrating against us. i have no doubt in my mind that there's a group of people who are surveiling, monitoring, the syrian-american community. and it's managed by the syrian embassy in washington. >> sreenivasan: that's a charge the syrian government categorically denies. but it's not just syrian expatriates making that allegation. in mid-october the f.b.i. arrested mohammed sewey, a naturalized citizen from syria and a former car salesman in northern virginia. among the charges leveled in the indictment, that he was acting as an agent of the syrian national intelligence service. the indictment alleges he was actively spying on the expatriate community here and passing information back to syria where relatives of u.s.- based protestors would then be

threatened or killed. prosecutors say he had protests videotaped for delivery to syrian agents. the u.s. attorney for the eastern district of virginia, based in alexandria. his office is prosecutg the case. >> if you go through the indictment it lays out in detail act after act after act of him engaging in conduct in which he's trying to conceal, hide or misrepresent the fact that he's an operative for syrian intelligence. he's directing other people to make recordings of dissidents and protestors and then providing that information back to the syrian government. >> hello. >> sreenivasan: part of the foundation of that case was built on wire-tapped conversations he had in arabic with his wife. and with an f.b.i. informant. his defenders say the government has misunderstood the tone and content of the nine conversations. and mistranslated similarly harmless expressions unique to syrian arabic.

but mcbride says there are other parts of the case that link the man to the assad regime. >> at a time of immense civil unrest in syria, the president takes time to meet personally with this man. he has access to the syrian ambassador here in the united states. he has access to high-level members of the syrian intelligence agency. >> sreenivasan: his trial is set for may. he is jailed without bail now, though he freely admits he's an assad supporter his family and associates say he wouldn't risk his and his wife and children's livelihoods here. they insist he's innocent. he expressed a desire to be interviewed by the newshour but our requests were denied by the authorities who hold him. his public defender also declined to speak on the record. the syrian embassy in washington d.c. has repeatedly refused newshour requests for an on- camera interview with either the ambassador or a top aide on this

matter. and whether the syrian government is running agents in the united states. but in a statement they did say there have been concerted efforts recently by individuals and the media to spread lies and distortions regarding the embassy of syria. these proceed post russ allegations claim that the embassy is involved in targeting or intimidating syrian expatriates in the u.s. which is absolutely untrue. the syrian-american community is divided between support for the uprising and for the assad regime. at a syrian orthodox church outside washington, not a single parishioner wanted to talk about their homeland. the congregation's pastor struck a careful middle ground. >> we are with those people who ask rightly for their rights. they want it in the right way going on the streets, demonstrating peacefully but not for those people who.... >> sreenivasan: only 10% of syria is christian.

the assad regime has allowed them to practice and even attain high rank in the syrian government. some syrian christians are cautious to take sides in the uprising. that caution has been reinforced by the recent travails of christians in egypt as islamists come to the fore. the pastor says no one is without blame in syria. and every side is spreading its own misinformation. >> everyone is engaging in propaganda constantly: the government and the opposition. everyone. the church is even engaged in propaganda. everyone for his political point of view and how he sees what is good for the country. >> sreenivasan: he says he has heard the rumors of the presence of the secret intelligence in the united states but he believes the syrian government when it says they have nothing to do with it. >> i have heard it on the news. i have gone to the syrian embassy in d.c. and the statement posted over there that the embassy says has nothing to do with this.

it's never recruited anyone to work for it. who is american and who lives in the u.s. >> sreenivasan: those denials meant little at a recent meeting of the syrian-american council outside washington. speaker after speaker denounced the damascus regime, speaking and singing of a syria without assad. many told the stories of family harassed, assaulted or worse allegedly because of actions taken by their family members here in u.s. this person is from michigan. she did not want her last name used for reasons that will become apparent. her father who left syria 40 years ago was marching outside the syrian embassy this past spring when the ambassador invited him and others in to talk. >> he gave his first name, last name, where he was from. i got a text from my sister saying isn't this crazy? they just came to my uncle's house and asked what's your brother?

>> sreenivasan: another uncle hers died from a brutal beating security forces meted out when they came to arrest one of his sons. she told us that ten cousins were also rounded up, tortured and beaten. she said if she thought it would make a difference to her family's safety she would stop protesting. >> you know, they're everywhere in the syrian community. i'm certain that there's surveillance. to me that won't stop. the wall of fear is down. >> sreenivasan: whether any part of that wall was ever built here will be a key issue when the man is brought to trial next spring. >> ifill: on our web site, we want to hear from syrian- americans who believe they or their family members have been intimidated by agents of the assad regime, and its supporters. you can submit your infoation nfidentiay at newshour.pbs.org.

>> believe it or not there was some other news today, and we have that, kwame. >> wall street got the new year off to a good start, stocks rallied from the opening bell on positive economic news out of china and germany. the dow jones industrial average gained more the w jones indurial average gained me than 179 points to close at 12,397. the nasdaq rose more than 43 points to close at 2648. the u.s. navy will continue sending warships to the persian gulf, despite threats from iran. that word came today after iran said its just-completed naval drills could close the strait of hormuz, if the west tries to embargo iranian oil. the commander of iran's army pointed to the u.s. aircraft carrier "john c. stennis," which left the persian gulf last week. >> in my opinion the enemy has gotten the message of the

military drill. we want to emphasize that we have no plan to begin any irrational act, but we are ready against any threats. we warn the american warship that was previously in the persian gulf it is a threat to us and it should not return. we are not used to repeating our warnings. >> holman: in washington, a pentagon spokesman said u.s. naval deployments in the persian gulf would continue, as they have for decades. and white house spokesperson jay carney said iran's warnings show that global sanctions are hurting. >> it reflects the fact that iran is in a position of weakness. it's the latest round of iranian threats. it's confirmation that tehran is under increasing pressure for its continued failures to live up to its international obligations. iran is isolated. and it's seeking to divert attention from its behavior and domestic problems. >> holman: iran's warnings to the west have escalated as it faces the possibility of curbs on its vital oil exports. a string of bombings struck southern afghanistan today, killing at least 13 people.

three separate explosions erupted in the city of kandahar, one in the morning and the others in the evening. one of the bombs was onboard a motorcycle that blew up at a police checkpoint. four police officers and a child were among those killed. the other blasts went off within minutes of each other at a busy intersection. in egypt, prosecutors began to make their case in the trial of former president hosni mubarak. they accused him of tyranny and corruption during his decades of rule, in the first of three days of opening statements. mubarak could face the death penalty if nvicted. his two sons and eight other defendants also are on trial. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to judy. >> thanks, kwame. i am judy woodruff in des moines and i can tell you at this hour counting of what results have come in from the iowa caucuses, with about 31 percent of the precincts reporting, mitt romney, rick santorum and ron paul are all bunched at right

around 23 percent, it is kind of a stunning three way tie at this point, and guinni have to say, what i am -- if my recollection is correct, if this is the way it enup and we are a long way from the end, this could be the lowest percentage for a winner coming out of iowa in a long time, maybe ever. >> well, certainly huckabee four years ago the republican who won these caucuses was up north of 30 percent, like 34, 35 percent, what we are seeing in this case, at this late hour eastern time, just before 10:00 o'clock eastern time about 9:00 o'clock central time the caucuses have been open for a while and we are just talking about 100 votes or so separating these top tier candidates. completely unusual, and, in fact, the networks are already reporting they don't plan to call this until every vote is counted. >> that's right. and even though we have heard from republicans, they think they are going to have a great turnout, at this point, gwyn, it

looks like the turnout is going to be either on par or maybe a little less than the last time. again, we are reluctant t to mae projections and going to wait and see what the final vote count is, but iowa may not we may kn who is gng toe at the bottom because the bottom three whose names we haven't mentioned lately, newt gingrich, rick perry and michele bachmann, we know who they are, but the person at the top is very much in doubt. >> well, and what is interesting is that everything from what we can tell from the entrance pose, these interviews with voters when they arrive at caucuses tell us what we thought we knew, we knew rick santorum was popular among evangelicals and romney was popular among higher earners and said economy and businessesas their big concern and tse who oosed the tea arty and we knew ron paul could get this incredible appeal from young people although she the oldest person in the race. what we don't know is how the numbers actually shake out in the very end, it is amazing, judy. >> you are exactly right, the

entrance polls showing the candidates fit the profile of everything we thought coming up to tonight. well, our coverage will continue on pbs at 11:00 o'clock eastern, there will be a half hour special, gwyn and i will be back, for now, that is the news hour, i am judy woodruff, and i am gwen ifill, perhaps you can find real numbers where we will post the victory and concession speeches plus all of our programming on your mobile device, just download the pbs news hours for interactive maps and more and we will be here for a special result of the result of the caucuses as we promised at 11:00 o'clock eastern time and as the campaign moves to new hampshire again tomorrow evening, thanks for watching, good night. major funding for the pbs news hour has been provided by bnsf railway. and by the billand melinda gates foundation dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to live a healthy,

productive life. and with the ongoing and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captiong sponsoreby macneil/lehrerroductns captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

no. well, it's just past there. first house in the right after the cottage on the l don't panic. brazen it out. me? - no. - right. here goes. yippee!