captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> woodruff: french president nicolas sarkozy placed second in the first round of elections, and heads to a runoff with socialist leader francois hollande. good evening. i'm judy woodruff. >> suarez: and i'm ray suarez. on the newshour tonight, we get the latest on the french results, another sign of voter discontent in europe over economic woes. >> woodruff: then, margaret warner examines the case against former senator and vice presidential candidate john edwards, accused of violating

campaign finance laws. >> suarez: we report from pennsylvania on mitt romney's efforts to court social conservatives ahead of tomorrow's primary. >> romney can not afford a narrow victory here, imagine the headlines the next day, romney barely wins. >> woodruff: we get two views on the health of the social security program, now projected to run dry by 2033, three years sooner than previously expected. >> suarez: and hari sreenivasan talks to geologist richard alley about a new documentary exploring ways communities can save money by conserving energy. >> woodruff: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been providedy: >> this is the at&t network-- a living, breathing intelligence bringing people together to bring new ideas to life. >> look, it's so simple. >> in a year, the bright minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road,

improving it in the cloud, all in real time. >> good idea. >> it's the at&t network. providing new ways to work together, so business works better. >> bnsf railway. >> citi. supporting progress for 200 years. >> the william and flora hewlett foundation, working to solve social and environmental problems at home and around the world. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank u. >> suarez: a new wave of political and economic turmoil in europe shook governments, and stock exchanges today.

the ruling coalition in the netherlands fell, and the president of france faced an uphill fight in a run-off to retain his job. >> in paris and across europe, all eyes were on francois hollande, now a major step closer to becoming the first socialist president of france since 1995. hollande landed 28% of the vote in sunday's first round election that saw a turnout of more than 80%. he finished ahead of conservative nicolas sarkozy, the incumbent president garnered 27%. the two will meet in a may 6th runoff election. >> i'm going to do exactly as i did in the first round. i'm going to gather all the french people without want change. >> this campaign must be about the truth this is a crucial moment. the french people need to have all the facts so they can choose. and i won't be running away from it or hiding from it.

>> reporter: but sarkozy faced deep disconsent-- discontent over frances debt and high unemployment. hollande calls for less austerity and more focus on economic growth. the voter unhappiness fueled the far right voter she won nearly 18% vowing to quit the your owe currency system and curb muslim immigration. >> when i heard this morning that certain people were talking about a protest vote, i find that particularly rude and inn regard to our supporters. just because they are for more national protectionism is because they want less immigration, is because they want security problems resolved. >> suarez: economic worries and disillusionment with deficit cuts also drove the dutch government into collapse today. the prime minister and his cabinet resigned after the far right freedom party lost in back a new austerity package. >> it's not just the purchasing power for the elderly or less economic growth or unemployment figures rising as a direct

result of the $18 billion in cuts. no, it's the whole thing. we just don't want it. >> suarez: meanwhile, new economic data showed spain has fall enback into recession just two years after emerging from the last one. and the european union reported the picture for the entire eurozone is mixed at best. the 17 countries using the euro saw their average deficits fall to just over 4% of economic output in 2011. but their overall debt rose to 87% of output, the highest level since the euro's creation in 1999. it all weighs heavily on european markets today, as major indexes fell 2 to 3% n part traders freted about what will happen in france if the long time socialist party leader hollande wins, as polls suggest he will. he said he wants to renegotiate a european treaty designed to limit excessive government spending as a way of

spurring growth. up to now, france under sarkozy has joined with germany to push other countries for fiscal restraint and spending cuts. for more on the french another on on the wider austerity programs in europe, we turn to-- at the brookings institution, well, a lot of big headlines ought of this vote, the incumbent comes in second, a huge turnout, and candidates of the far right and left do very well. what's going on. >> they z indeed, the election was a surprise in that the forecasted participation participion was very low and it turned out that the french voted by more than 80% which is not a historic high but which is very high. and yes, they're not really many surprises in the result. they look like more or less like the polls predicted

them, however the national france with almost 18% of the vote is also at the very high point historically. >> suarez: candidates to the left of hollande and to the right of sarkozy got almost, welljust a little more than o out of every four votes ca who has the riskst road in trying to get those voters over to their side, hollande or sarkozy. >> sar koz ooerx he has an uphill battle. because he got 27% of the vote and so now he needs to gather votes from other candidates. the problem is that the reservoirs can tap into are the extrom right on the one hand, but they are only about half of the extreme right voters have announced that they would vote for him. and then on the other hand, the center where francois -- the centrist candidate got 9% of the vote but here only about a third of those voters say they would vote for president sarkozy. and so not only these are small reservoirs of votes,

but sarkozy must straddle the idea lodge came divide between the extreme right and center and choose between one and the other and he probably will not be able to get both so for him it is a very difficult task ahead. >> suarez: a two-round presidential race sets up some fascinating dynamic force an american. what is usually the pattern? dot people whose condition datas didn't make the second round stay home or do they finally come home to another candidate. >> no they actually generally come home and you don't see a very big drop in participation in the second round. you know, the saying in france is that in the first round you vote for your friend, you vote for your heart, and in the second round you vote against your enemy tlarx is to say what motivates to you go to vote is to eliminate the candidate that you really do not want to see as the president. >> suarez: now when the news began to come out that the socialists had come in first the french ballotting, first futures and then the

actual markets themselves in france and in other forces in europe began to decline, why is that? >> there is some apprehension about the possibility that the renegotiation of the european treaty that has been agreed upon in the last few months, especially following the lead of angela merkel, the german chancellor and nicolas sarkozy, the french president, would be renegotiated. francois hollande has announced he would renegotie it. so this hahad some people worried. i think they worry wrongly but that has been the perception of some in the market. the other worry would be that francois hollande would not hold the deficit and the debt to levels that would be compatible with recovery of the eurozone, even though the candidate himself has pledged to respect all the european disciplines that have been agreed collectively. >> suarez: but is there a growing sense in europe that

austerity is not having its intended effect, that consumer demand has to drive a recovery at least to some extent and maybe hollande plan has more to offer than sarkozy? >> that's exactly true. what happened was that in december when francois hollande said that he would renegotiate the fiscal compact-- exact treaty, that has now to be ratified by the european countries, that sent shockwaves but since then the outlook for european growth has been very, very bad. and so re and more people incling in the market, amonthe observers but also in spain and in italy are calling for a rebalancing of the treaty towards growth. and so what hollande has said is that he would renegotiate the treaty not to get rid of the new disciplines, the fiscal disciplines that the treaty includes but in order to add sort of protocol on growth on the stimulus in order to, you know, basically avoid

having europe die a virtueous death. >> suarez: the parliamentary majority for the prime minister in the netherlands crumbled over ju that question,heth more austerity could be passed for the coming fiscal year. tell us more about that. >> it's really a pan-european issue. and even the knelter-- netherlands who really had been reliably in the so-called virtuous category way very good credit rating, et cetera, have shown that even for them it's difficult to impose austerity without having some kind of at least short term or midterm prospect of growth. and that is what lead to the demise of the governmen, with the extreme right leader being part of the government and pulling away from the tough and painful measures respecting the deficit objective would entail. and so yes, whether you look at spain, at italy, at the netherlands, at france, you

see the political repercussion. and that's why the optimistic take on a possible francois hollande victory on may 6th which is by no mean assured but which seems likely, would be that because he has pledged to renegotiate the treaty with angela merkel and because he has the support of the spd, the german socialists who are needed to ratify the troty anyway, that they could be a new renegotiation or a new consensus on rebalancing austerity and discipline, fiscal discipline measures with growth. >> suarez: thanks a lot. >> thanks very much. >> woodruff: still to come on the newshour, john edwards on trial; the conservative vote in pennsylvania; the coming shortfall in the social security trust fund; and an earth day documentary. but first, the other news of the day. re's kwame holman. >> holman: the political upheavals in europe weighed on wall street today. the dow jones industrial average lost 102 points to close at 12,927.

the nasdaq fell 30 points to close at 2970. wal-mart shares were down more than 4.5%, some $10 billion. the "new york times" had reported the retailing giant blocked an internal bribery probe involving executives in mexico. the scandal involving secret service agents and u.s. troops who allegedly patronized prostitutes in colombia has widened again. pentagon officials said today a 12th member of the military is under investigation. his unit provides secure communications for the president. defense secretary leon panetta flew to colombia today on a long-scheduled visit. en route, he confirmed new disciplinary measures. >> . >> we have suspended the security clearances of individuals there, pending the results of this investigation. frankly my biggest concern is the issue of security and

what could possibly have been jeopardized by virtue of this kind of behavior. >> holman: white house officials have ruled out misconduct by any presidential staffers. nato has suffered more fatalities in afghanistan. the alliance announced today that two more service members were killed in a bombing on sunday. that came a day after the u.s. and afghan governments agreed to a long-term security pact. it calls for continued u.s. financial and military support until at least 2024. most foreign forces are set to withdraw from afghanistan in 2014. in syria, the opposition reported a new massacre in the city of hama. activists said government troops using heavy machine guns killed between 30 and 50 people, a day after u.n. monitors visited. today, the monitors moved to a suburb of damascus, where thousands of protesters greeted them. the crowd chanted for the end of president bashar al-assad's regime.

president obama ordered new sanctions today aimed at syria and iran. the measures will impose penalties on countries that use cell phone and sociamedia technologies to crack down on dissent and target protesters. mr. obama spoke at the holocaust museum in washington. >> the bitter truth, so often the world has failed to prevent the killing of innocence on a massive scalement and we are haunted by the atrocities that we did not stop. and the lives we did not face. we need to be doing everything we can to prevent and respond to these kibsd of atrocities. because national sovereignty is never a licence to slaughter your people. >> the >> holman: the administration also announced grants to develop technologies that can warn people in countries where mass killings occur. the florida man accused of killing an unarmed teenager was released on bail overnight. george zimmerman is charged with second degree murder in the fatal shooting of trayvon martin. the case sparked protests

nationwide. zimmerman ignored reporters as he left the jail in sanford around midnight. he followed another man to a car, but his destination was being kept secret. the second perjury trial of former baseball star roger clemens is now under way. a federal jury was seated today in washington, and opening statements began. clemens is accused of lying to a congressional committee when he denied using steroids and similar drugs. the pitching great's first trial ended last july in a mistrial, when prosecutors used video material that the judge had barred. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to ray. >> suarez: opening statements began today in the john edwards trial looking at whether the former senator, vice presidential candidate, and one- time presidential hopeful violated campaign finance laws. margaret warner begins with some background. . >> good morning,. >> good morning. >> warner: john edwards arrived at the federal court house in greensboro, north carolina, for his felony

trial accompanied by his oldest daughter, kate. his prosecution on campaign finance violations marks a long fall from grace for edwards. the son of mill workers who became a famed trial attorney and got elected to the u.s. senate in 1998. six years later after seeking the democratic presidential nomination, he became john kerry's vice presidential running mate. the ticket lost and within days edwards's wife elizabeth edwards disclosed she had breast cancer. but it seemed to go into remission and her husband announced his second presidential bid in december 2006. >> this campaign will be a grass roots, ground up campaign where we ask people to take action. >> this time the former senator faired poorly in the early contest and quit the race in january 2008. but by then "the national enquirer" was reporting he had had an affair with real hunter, a videographer hired

to document his campaign. hunter gave birth to a baby girl in february 2008. and after repeated denials edwards admitted in january 2010 to being the child's father. he and his wife ultimately separated and elizabeth edwards died of cancer in december 2010. but news of at fair prompted an investigation an i ju of last year, john edwards was indicted on six counts of violating federal campaign-finance laws. prosecutors say he received $900,000 from two wealthy benefactors, and used it to keep his pregnant mistress in hiding and at fair a secret. 9 money was never reported. edwards has denied any wrongdoing saying the funds were personal gifts, not campaign contributions. >> i didn't violate campaign laws. and i never for a second believed i was violating campaign laws. >> if convicted on all

counts, edwards could face 30 years in prison and a one and a half million dollar fine. michael, welcome. first of all, give us a flavor of what it was like in the courtroom today? paint a picture for us? >> well, there was a line to get in. that is the first time that happened to me at a trial there were more people trying to get not courtroom than seating a lot of the people who came were just interested in see wag would happen wed wards and lawyers interested in seeing a former trial lawyer on trial. >> warner: and so what the-- the prosecutor, the lead prosecutor gave an opening statement, what did he say that one outlined his theory of their face, and two why, what edwards did was a crime. >> well, key to the government's case is proving that edwards not only knew about the money but he

directed especially a cover-up -- essentially a cover-up to keep public from finding out about the affair. not motivated from hiding at fair from his wife will you to influence the outcome of an election. under federal campaign-finance law, any money given to influence the outcome an election, they say that is certainly what edwards was trying to do. edwards's lawyer contend he was just trying to hide the affair from his wife and avoid humiliation. >> warner: what kind of evidence, i mean neither of them introduced actual evidence but what kind of examples did either cite to support their theory? >> well, the dedense-- defense is saying that most of the 900,000, more than 900,000 that is at issue in the trial, the bulk of that, about 750,000 came from-- bunny melon, they say young took the money from melon-- . >> warner: you have to explain, are you talking about andrew young who was an aide to john edwards.

>> yes. >> warner: right? >> yes, andrew young was essentially edwards's body man. he drove him to and from campaign appearances. the two men were more than just employer a employee though. they were friends. young went to edwards beach houchls they went to unc basketball games together. and when edwards became embroiled in this affair and his mistress became pregnant young initially claimed the baby was hit. >> warner: so you were explaining, so the defense contends what, that the money was actually paid to young. >> that the money, yes, that the money flowed through young. that edwards never touched the money. that young took that money, deposited it in a personal account and used most of it not to care foredwas's pregnant mistress but to build a $1.5 million mansion outside of chapel hill. they say most of the money from the air es went to the construction of that home, not anything having to do with covering up the affair. >> warner: so then in the afternoon andrew young himself took the stand.

>> yes, he did. he recounted how he met edwards, how the first time he saw edwards speak when he was running for senate in 1998, he knew that that man may become president and wanted to do anything he could to work for him. through the yea he and edwards grew, obviously, very close. young held the title of special aide to the senator. and young recounted also the first time that he met real hunter picking up edwards from a flight from dulles airport, there luntzer a videographer got off the planed with edwards and for the first time, young says he was directed to pick up miss hunter's bags and put them in the vehicle for for her to ride to the hot well mr. edwards. younalso testify he that he suspected that she spent the night in his room that night. >> warner: now it sounds like it is going to boil down to young's word versus edwards. first of all, how did

edwards react in the courtroom today? he is sitting at the defense table, right. >> he is sitting at the defense table, probably about 25 feet away from the witness stand. he stared intently at young throughout young's testimony. however young never once looked back in edwards's direction. >> warner: and he is expected to testify, john edwards? >> my understanding i that decisions not yet been made. but mr. edwards was known as a trial attorney in north carolina. not only for being very successful for his clients, but his ability to woo jurors. and i would be very surprised if he didn't take the stand in his own defense. >> woodruff: . >> warner: now a lot of experts in campaign-finance law say that this definition f he were to be convicted, it really broadens the definition of what is a campaign contribution. what dow understand to be the implications of this case, more broadly, beyond this drama that is playing out there. >> well, regardless of how the case turns out it will be precedent setting for

campaign-finance law. essentially edwards' attorneys contend that no one has ever been prosecuting for doing what he has alleged to have don't especially essentially money that never went to a campaign account, that the candidate never spent, that the defense contends was a gift from friends to help cover up a personal and private matter, that it didn't have anything to do with the campaign. >> warner: and finally -- >> the prosecution on the other hand says it is a donation. >> warner: and finally, of course, john edwards really is the home boy, noh carolina, e home boy who made good, humble beginnings, came to fame and potentially could be vice president. how is this case being looked on and he being looked on in north carolina today? >> well, you know, for those us who pay attention to politics, it's a huge case. during jury selection one thing that became very clear was a question to the potential jurors in the case a loft north carlinians didn't pay attention to the scandal. they know who john edwards s

that he ran for president, they know he was their senator t they really don't know the details of this case. and how much they still care, i'm not sure. >> warner: well, thank you so much. >> woodruff: turning to the presidential election, despite upcoming primaries, the focus now is on the two-man race between president obama and governor romney and on romney's need to appeal to voters in the political center. but at the same time, the former massachusetts governor has another important job to take care of: reaching out to the g.o.p.'s conservative base. >> . >> woodruff: on this busy historic stretch of road near york, pennsylvania where confederate general jeb stuart stopped on his way to the battle of gettysburg, a row of yard signs advertised a politic

of the family living next door to where history has it, stuart slept. inside the 140-year-old yellow log house lives leanne burkeholder. >> electrical signals cannot jump over the synapse. >> woodruff: home schooling her two daughters. she helped found a tea party group in the area, serves on the republican state committee, and has been working hard to elect conservatives to office, including rick santorum. >> i was very disappoint thaed got out of the race. i mean so many candidates, even on a local level, are afraid to talk about the social issues. and the social issues tie into economic issues. just as much as jobs and you know things like that. and santorum was not afraid to say what he believed. >> woodruff: both burkeholder and fellow tea party leader ted wagah is waging a long shot bid for congress, say they still plan for vote for santorum

in tuesday's primary. easy since his name remains on the ballot. >> yes, rick santorum, he was my candidate because he had strong moral values and principleses. i believe that a lot of issues we have in washington, both fiscally and socially are due to a lack of morality in washington. >> woodruff: we originally came to southeastern pennsylvania here in lancaster county and in york county next door, because this was to be a hotly contested area in the republican primary. once rick santorum dropped out, we were curious about how mitt romney is seen by former santorum supporters and the many undecided conservatives. as we discovered, this reliably red part of the state was a good place to find out. >> it's 64 degrees. at news radio 910 wsba. >> newt gingrich may well be on our show to he is a true conservative, romney is not. >> woodruff: every morning in drive time popular conservative host gary sutton and jim horne of am

radio wsba guide their listener us through a discussion of day's political news. >> with you know, we is still have the vapor trail of all that going on with the idea that is an torum was maybe the true conservative. but there is nobody there. so romney is the, you know, romney becomes the ham sandwich vote. >> woodruff: some of the effort to convert conservatives to romney is being directed by groups in washington. about two and a half hours south. a few antiabortion organizations have moved quickly now that is an tore up has step add side, to endorse romney. marjorie dannon feldzer heads the susan b. anthony list. >> we've gotten to know him over the years since his conversion to the pro-life issue. and i will say as a convert myself it rings true and is authentic. more importantly, however, are the concrete commitments that he has made to be a president who on the subtler level will be very active in implummeting pro-life policies. >> woodruff: their numbers

are hard to measure but so-called social conservatives are a powerful force in the republican party. with strong views on abortion and gay rights in particular. for example, this vote 2012 map center shows evangelical christians dominate parts of the southeast. but they are a factor for the gop across the country. >> back in pennsylvania, at the lancaster bible college, rick santorum visited 9 day he left the race, we met with some young people who talk openly about trying to find a candidate to match their christian values. none ruled out voting for romney eventually. but as of today, they're looking at options from ron paul to president obama. >> right now what i don't see with governor romney is enough distinctions on fiscal policy and on social policy between him and president obama for me to feel totally comfortable

coming in and giving him my support. >> roev wade has been around nor 20 years. he didn't see any reason to try to abolish it. but yet at this point now he is being backed by, you know, pro-life organizations. i would like to know more what caused the change. >> and i do agree with that. his morals, yes, they are good to some extent and a agree with some of them but not all of them. you know, with him being a mormon and stuff it is not necessarily what i agree with. >> woodruff: tuesday's gop primary is not on their radar screen. which public policy professor and pollster terry madonna of nearby franklin and marshal college insists should concern romney who he says needs a convincing win. >> what he does not want to leave pennsylvania with is a four or five point victory over a candidate, santorum, who has suspend-- suspended his race who is literally said i'm out of the contest. he cannot afford romney cannot afford a narrow victory here. imagine the headlines the

next day. romney barely wins. >> woodruff: this why the romney campaign and the so-called super pac supporting him restore our future, are still spending more than $2.6 million on tv ads in pennsylvania. >> the principleses of business work in government and it's high time to bring those principleses of fiscal responsibility to twoorn d.c.. >> woodruff: madonna says romney's immediate k458 eng is to win over social conservatives, many of whom were attracted to santorum. >> santorum can go a long way if he assures that cohort of voters, evan gel calls, born again, pro-lifers, that romney conversion is genuine, that he's one of them. >> woodruff: this may happen later. but it hasn't yet. 59 a lancaster county republican fund-raiser last week, santorum cancelled. and romney stayed away from social issues before the mostly conservative audience. >> we have two very

different paths. the path that the president represents is trillion dollar deficits every year, leading in my view to a grease like-- greece like setting with where we face economic cries. the path i represent is cutting federal spending, capping it as a percentage of our economy, and finally balancing our budget. >> woodruff: textbook salesman bill coder said he didn't need convincing. >> he's great on social issues. you know, a lot of people talk about oh he is a flip florp, he's not somebody that can be trusted. but i look at it from the perspective of somebody becomes more conservative, i'm all for it we need more of that with. >> woodruff: former lancaster county gop chair rejects the idea romney isn't conservative newpaper. >> look deeply will you see that he is one of the most conservative, the most solid conservatives we've ever run for president, if you care about not only social issues but also economic and business-related and fiscal policy. he's so rock solid. >> woodruff: his wife sharon had been a long time santorum backer. but the night of the dinner

announced a change. >> decided it has become obvious to me that we now need to make a choice between obama and romney. and so i will be a romney supporter. aren't you glad. >> mi, very, very good, yes. >> my daughters are going -- >> if we can win a conservative like her over, we can win any conservative over. so this is good. >> duty calls. and we have a great nation and we want to keep it that way. >> woodruff: a couple of the tea party members gathered at leanne burkeholders say they know they will eventually come around to romney but not yet with much enthusiasm. her husband scott burkeholder is also on the republican state committee. >> i think m itt is a littl little-- squishy. he's kind of wishy washy on a lot of things. he doesn't like to upsets the apple cart and i don't like that i myself will work for romney bus i just, i don't see an alternative to

obama. i mean i just can't fathom another four years of president obama. >> george chaplin has is also driven by opposition to the president, despite misgivings about romney's religion. >> now i don't particularly care of all the baggage that he maybe brings along with him, as far as i'm concerned, i am not too fond of a mormon president. but sometimes you have to set those thing as side. >> woodruff: allison blew says she prered go romney if he chooses a truly conservative running mates. >> if rick santorum was the nominee i would have gone out and hit the pavement to sign, you know, the whole nine yards. for romney i will tell my friends, most of them will vote for him anyway. you know, i just won't be as excited. if he would pick a conservative as his vice president like mccain picked palin for his vice president that will go a long way amongst conservatives. >> i am a conservative.

i don't consider myself a republican, it's just the party that i have to vote in to be play in the top primary. but i think that people who believe the way that we do, are tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. and that's how i see a vote for romney. he's going to have to attract social conservatives to win in november. >> woodruff: terry madonna says romney can attract them with an economy-related message. >> i think the way to do that is to begin to talk much more about how fiscal issues relate to social conservatives as well as other voters. social conservatives care about jobs. >> woodruff: for now romney's camp insists it is not worried about the most conservative voters, saying his views on growing business and reducing government spending will go a long way toward winning over people like miss burkeholder. >> woodruff: you can track

the results of all five of tomorrow's primaries online using our interactive map center. >> suarez: the long-term health of social security worsens. that's according to the latest projections today from its trustees. the program's trust fund will become insolvent in 2033, three years earlier than previously estimated. the social security fund for disability is in even tougher shape. it's expected to move into the red in 2016, but trustees favor transferring money to shore it up. treasury secretary tim geithner spoke of the impact to come at a briefing today. . >> its reports project that when krdz on a combined basis, social security's retirement and disability programs have dedicated funds sufficient to cover benefits for the next 20 years. but in 2033, incoming revenues and trust fund

resources will be insufficient to maintain the payment of full benefits. after that time, dedicated funds would be sufficient to cover about three quarters of full benefits. >> suarez: currently, the average social security benefit for a retiree is $1,232 a month. medicare's finances are no worse than they were a year ago. but it faces a bleaker situation overall. its hospital insurance fund will become insolvent in 2024, and that's assuming congress and the president allow scheduled cuts in payments to take place in future years-- something that has not been the case historically. tonight, we focus on the state of social security. nancy altman is the co-director of the group social security works. she's also the author of the book, "the battle for social security." and david john is a resear fellow specializing in retirement security with the heritage foundation. he worked previously on capitol hill on proposals to change the program. nancy altman, the fund is

still in surplus, collect morning money than it pays out. the trust fund is growing but the date at which they won't be able to pay the guaranteed payout just moved three years closer, so? is it generally in goods shape, generally in danger? >> generally in good shape. social security, the social security system from the beginning has been very closely monored and has always been very conservatively managed. so efly year it projects out 75 years. now when you project out that far you going to show these fluctiations. recently trustees reports have shown that the exhaas shen date is 2028, others show 2048. so 2033, 2035, 2036 are all within that range. the important point is what you said, social security is projected to have a $60 billion surplus this year. it has a 2.7 trillion dollar accumulated reserve. and it has two decades, 20

years to-- congress has 20 years to figure out, ideally sooner to give peace of mind, but of all the federal programs it is in the best shape. >> suarez: david john, generally in good shape or generally in danger. >> generally in danger. today's report essentially is similar to if you are falling. the good news is we haven't hit the ground yet. but the trajectory is accelerating. >> suarez: with you both looking at the same stats what is giving you such a gloomier outlook? >> well, because the overall actuaryial deficit which social security calculates is the worst today with this report than it has been since 1983 reforms. it's growing worse and what we're seeing is the effects of a weakening economy on the system. we're seeing people working less. we're seeing wages noint creasing to the level that we expected. and of course social security is mainly financed with a payroll tax on those wages so if they don't grow

than the program doesn't meet its projection. >> what is causing that? is the economic swoon of 20089 -- 009, more people unemployed, more people retiring earlier, fewer people paying into the kittie? >> it's that and the other thing is that it is the demographic change. we are an older society. we have more people who are retiring. and we're going have more and more baby boomers who going to be collecting social security. social security can basically as it is currently structured pay out about 75% of what it has promised starting in only 21 years. and that seems like a long time but given the speed thatongress acts, it may take us awhile. >> suarez: nancy altman t didn't sound like you disagree with david's numbers, just his conclusion. >> exactly right. i say, you know, most people if you told them they could pay all of their expenses for the flex 20 years, and after that, they could pay 75 cents on the dollar but they would need a little bit more, most people say coy pay my mortgage, car loan,

everything tlarx is the situation social security is in. it's overall cost is quite modest compared to social security systems all around the world total is about 6% of gross domestic product at its most expensive. a wealthy country can afford those benefits. >> suarez: what about disability insurance it is a much less talked about part of the program but key for families that have lost a breadwinner. why is it in a different happy from the program as a whole. >> it is very, i'm glad you are raising that because it is important to remember that social security is more than retirement program as important as that is. it is wage insurance so it provides wages in case someone becomes disabled or dies leaving children. and the disability insurance trust fund is a separate trust fund from the old age trust fund. part of what has happened there are the economy, people who have really been disabled and holding on have

lost jobs, some staff the change in workforce, women's labor force participation. >> suarez: so when you say disabled and holding option, you mean people who might be disabled aren't as quick to go back to work. >> no, no, just the opposite. they really fit the definition of disabl but they prefer to work and they have been holding on to their job. but now with the downturn in the economy they have lost their job, they have run out of unemployment, they have no other choice but to apply for these benefits. but the important point is that historically policymakers who have seen the old age portion of social security, the survivors, life insurance and the disability insurance as one. they are these separate trust fundsed. but if you simply reallocate which is what congress has done historically, they could do it next week. and if you reallocate the amount from the workers contributions and employers matches that go to social security, both programs are fine until 2033. >> suarez: do you agree, a

simple fix on disability orcismer. >> it's a simple fix on disability. the problem is the disability program has been a problem for years now. we have got huge delays in procession. some of the applications. there are different standard depending on which area of the country that you live in, and things like that. so disability definitely needs to be fixd. and that's really the red flag from this report. but it goes beyond that. because nancy talked about two percent of gdp. well, we've got a 15 trillion dollar economy. so that means that social security basically needs about 300 billion a year on top of what it is receiving from its payroll tax. that's just not sustainable, because that's money that would otherwise go to schools and roads and defence and things like that. >> there was a grand bargain in the 1980 that put social security on firmer footing for the next generation. >> yes. >> suarez: would it be as hard to get something like that done this time around. and we're close to the end

of our time. are we looking at a really, really tough battle? >> i'm afraid that at this point with this congress getting the approval for resolution on motherhood, morality and the flag it would be a difficult thing to do. >> i would say alan greenspan is insistent on that greenspan commission that resulted in the amendment. the difference then was that everyone a he good that the program was fundamentally sound and we shouldn't be talking about private accounts and other kinds of things. and a compromise was able to be a cheefted. today we don't have agement on the basic facts. i think that david and coy work out an agreement because we agree on the facts. but, and the facts are that the program is fundamentally sound, it's well structured, it stood the test of time. we need to keep it that way. >> suarez: but one of the trustees say today during the release of the report, every day, every year that passes, further constrains our option. this gets harder to fix. >> much, much harder. because if are you going to make changes in benefitses,

if are you going to make changes in retirement age or something along that line o you've got to give people plenty of advance notice that this is going to happen. every year that we wait, it limits us to just raising taxes and that's really not necessarily a good move. >> suarez: david john and nancy altman, thank you both. >> thank you so much. >> woodruff: finally tonight, yesterday was earth day, with celebrations around the globe. hari sreenivasan talked recently to a geologist who is also the host of a new film. and he's traveled the globe looking for ways human ingenuity have solved tough energy problems. >> sreenivasan: "earth, the operator's manual" is a new three-hour pbs documentary that looks at different ways communities within the united states and the world are making smart energy choices based on their pocketbooks and the environment. the host of the series is richard alley, a professor of geo science at penn state university.

tells us what ice corp. samples show us about the earth's -- >> thiis a pattern of natural variability of the climate that our planet has experienced over the past 400,000 years, as recorded in the physics and chemistry of ice cores. the regular ups and downs there temperatures are result of changes in earth's orbit around the sun, and their subsequent effects on levels of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases. you can think of this natural variation as the ice age roller coaster. >> occasionally we cross some sort of a tipping point and the earth evolves really rapidly to a new state which is very different. over the last 100,000 years of the ice age cycling, we've had a couple dozen of these large, abrupt, widespread climate shifts. almost as if the earth was bungee jumping off the climate roller coaster.

>> richard alley joins us now, thanks for being with us. why jump off a bridge to make a point? >> well, we want the show to be engaging. something that will catch peop's aentionment but weant to tell the real story. now we humans are pushing the climate. we hope that it goes nice and smoothly and gently. but when we look at history, way back in climate history, we know that when nature pushed the climate, sometimes it was smooth and sometimes it wasn't. >> suarez: so when you look at those core samples you see the fluctiation up and down what is to say a lot of that happened way before humans were around. so what is the impact that humans are having on it. >> so what we see from the core samples is ultimately the climate makes sense. if the sun gets brighter, it gets warmer. if you change where the sun hits the planet with the or bid, the place is getting

more sun tend to get warmer. if you change the co2, raise it, it gets warmer. what the core samples show us is that climate makes sense and that our understanding is sort of working pretty well. >> uh-huh. >> and so then we ask what is pushing it now. the orbits are real slow. 10,000 years from now they will matter. next year, not. the sun if anything it has been dimming a little bit but not much change it really hasn't been that unstable to us. but we are uniting that co2 nobody. so we take the understanding that works in history and apply it to the future and we see that we're going matter. >> now you've had an opportunity to visit several different communities around the country. for example in baltimore, some of the poorest folks are actually making the biggest difference and saving the most money when it comes to starting to conserve its energy that they use. but one of the questions people ask is will changing my light bulb really make a big difference? opinions changing yur light bulb will make a little difference for you but will save you money.

and if all of us change our light bulbs it really does make a difference. and this is something i think is really important s that these things work for people. people are enjoy t they think they are doing the right thing, the good thing but they are also helping themselves in the pocketbook. >> let's take a look at the producer's side of the equation. you had a chance to go to china and take a look at an energy plant there where they have a pretty promising technology to try clean up the co2 that they are emitting. let's take a look at that clip. >> this plant uses a process called post combustion capture. where coal is first burned in a less traditional manner and the co2 is captured. >> it is remarkable in every way. they are capturing 150,000 tons of carbon dioxide and have been doing that now for 18 months successfully. >> they sell the captured

co2 for use in soft drinks and chemicals turning it into a resource. in the future, they will scale up and begin sequestering the co2 deep underground. >> already that means that it works and that the cost and performance are pretty well understood. so if it can be widely applied, then it creates the new benchmark that will define whether or not this works any wrels. >> i should mention the gentlemen in there is julio freedman. further in the documentary it says maybe that could work for a 20% cost increase. do we collectively have the will to swallow that kind of pill. >> i think we do. i think ultimately we love the benefits we get from energy. and ultimately we're going to want a lot of energy and we're going to want flring in the way that our grandchildren and their grandchildren can have it. and so we will do what is needed in the invention, in the implementation that will get us the energy in the best way. and by finding out what this

will cost, what you can do, it lays it out four. and now you can say look, this is doable. we can do this. we canmine and or wecan wind or we can do sun and we can conserve and we can-- now you have a full menu that you can choose from for what works for you, your country, your individual community, for yourself. >> how important is convincing governments 6 this? >> there are problems that each of us as an individual can solv we do not need a federal monitor to make sure i wash my hands after i use the rest room there are problems that our governments have solved with barela problem r us. the ozone hole going to get fixed because inventors came up with new things and the governments agreed how to implement them. this problem is, energy and environment is probably big enough that it's going to take us as individuals and us working together. >> richard alley, thanks some of for joining us.

>> and thank you. >> woodruff: "earth: the operator's manual" airs on many pbs stations this week, and also online. find a link on our web site. >> suarez: again, the major developments of the day. a new wave of political and economic turmoil shook europe. the ruling coalitionn the netherlands fell, and the president of france faced an uphill fight in a runoff. and social security's trustees reported the program will run out of money to pay full benefits in 2033, three years earlier than the last estimate. online, we have another in our series on how health care reform is affecting ordinary americans. kwame holman explains. kwame? >> holman: we profile a retired veteran who spent much of his life without insurance, and opposes the reform effort. we have his story as the supreme court weighs the new law. find that on our health page. also, see photos of this year's top ten green buildings, as decided by the american institute of architects. that's on paul solman's making

sense page. and on our world page, we examine whether the viral kony 2012 campaign to raise awareness about a ugandan warlord lived up to its hype. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. >> woodruff: and again, to our honor roll of american service personnel killed in the afghanistan conflict. we add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. here, in silence, are 11 more.

>> suarez: and that's the newshour for tonight. on tuesday, we'll look at arizona's tough immigration law, being challenged this week at

the supreme court. i'rasuarez. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. we'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. thank you, and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> citi turns 200 this year. in that time, there have been some good days and some difficult ones. but through it all, we persevered. supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. >> bnsf railway. >> at&t.

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