i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and put into perspective. call me or tweet me @jimcramer. >> this market should go up and the dow plunging through. s&p 50 plunging 3.27%. nasdaq diving 3.03%. that's the worst start for the dow ever. you can go back to 1928. dow has never been down more than 5% until now. it is the worst trading days for the s&p as well at the beginning of the year.

proximate causes of going down. i do not like this market. i said from the moment that the fed started tightening that from now on we will be fighting the fed. they're not our friend. they're not our mortal enemy but they're not our friend. ever since the bottom in 2009 the fed was there to help us, or at least not hinder us. we're down 6% and we would finally be free of the chatter about what would be their next move but no sooner did they raise rates than they began to tell everyone that their job is beginning and might tighten as many as four times this year. since then this horrendous sell off in china. it's similar to the destructive force that descended upon our markets last august. back then if you recall the fed was about to pull the trigger on rate hike but they thought better of it. now then they're buying. they have chosen to make one input matter more than any other in their decisions to raise

it's not that noise is plummeting and easing inflation. it's that hiring is good which means if we get a robust employment number tomorrow morning we could find ourselves down substantially because it would mean more talk that the fed must tighten even in the face of the obvious nightmare of china and what it's doing to our markets. we know one of the main drivers of whether a stock market is going to go up or down is whether the fed is planning to help or hinder the economy. if the fed wants to help our stock market has positive bias, hinder, negative bias. you throw in china which is massive uncertainty. in keeping with a country trying to figure out how a stock market should work and you have a picture that produces selling which gives me a chance to talk about the mechanics of the sell off. i keep seeing questions in social media along the lines of how could there be a sell off of my magnitude because there's buyers that will step up to the

buyer. but what that misses is the notion of real supply and demand. right now money managers want to own less stock than they have in the recent past. they don't like to lose money. so let's take the emotionally turbo charged apple. a stock so many of you have on your lips. apple sin expensive. it's capable of reinventing itself. got a growing ecosystem and doing well. the company is well managed. it has a lot going for it but if you're a big money manager and you own apple you're not sitting there thinking wow i like this ipad pro. you're saying every day i come in and this stock goes down because i hear about slowing cell phone sales. slowing sales that were confirmed this very evening by two large suppliers to all cell phone makers. so you go over to your trading desk and say this firm owns 1

need to sell it. in fact, you can sell it as low as 92. now keep in mind that apple stock went out at $95 and change. you're not going to knock it down. cheap stock. but that means nothing to the manager what made up his mind to sell because he thinks it's going down. this money manager just wants it gone and he's willing to sell it way below the current sale prices. he thinks someone will sell it even below where he wants to sell it. he wants to beat the seller to the punch. i wish there were more to it. i have run a hedge fund and traded personally and run a trust. and i can tell you that the guy who says offer 1 million apple shares 92 low when the stock is at 95 is in control right now because that manager is simply tired of losing money in a stock that isn't going anymore. the company isn't doing as well as it was.

of course i'm picking on apple here. good company. but i could be talking about hundreds of other stock out there where managers are selling their traders to get rid of it. levels that are lower and the traders aren't asking any questions. they're just selling. overlay the sellers of the s&p 500 futures saying the charts are all broken so they have to sell or dump everything and then layer the macro investors that say as china goes so goes the world. when does this process stop? when it's exhausted. when everyone that wants to sell below the current market prices is done and other newer buyers with fresh cash see real values and are willing to take short-term pain. unfortunately while there's individual stocks that are cheap and i'll talk to you about them later in the show, the overall market is not cheap even after the average stock has come down 20% for its highs.

may not notice the decline that's occurring but the sellers have not yet exhausted themselves and we still haven't had what the late great told me we wanted to see. it didn't finish all the way down today and then opens down even worse. that would flush out the remaining sellers in what he called a crescendo of capitulation. so if the market isn't cheap and many large sellers are willing to sell at prices well below where stocks are trading including apple, well, maybe you beat them to the punch. maybe you can sell disney at 99 and get back in at 94. maybe you can sell at 41 and come back in at 28. and you can still sell the

and making the right move. maybe you can take the emotion out of it. recognize that this market needs to experience that wash out that marks the end. the crescendo of selling just hasn't occurred. so you have to play by different rules. let's go to jim in nevada. >> good morning. my name is jim. i work for the railroad here in the battle born state of nevada. a big booyah to you. >> booyah back at you, sir. >> thank you. my interest is in union pacific as i do invest in it through my company's 401k program. just curious what your thoughts are. it has a price to earnings ratio of 12.6 earnings and one year target estimate of 97. just see what your thoughts are. >> i think union pacific is a great american company. that does not mean right now it is a stock i would want to own.

it's down 7% for the year. 6.5. and i would tell you that i think the estimates that you're basing your thinking on going forward may not be as strong as they were in the past and that's going to cause the stock to go down. all of that said would i own union pacific for the long-term after this decline from 124? i would. but if i tell people that they should buy union pacific now and that stock goes down $3 people are going to say you really hurt me. i don't want to hurt anybody. don't own union pacific. good company. okay stock. gordon in michigan, gordon. >> jim? >> yes, gordon. >> my name is gordon, i'm from holland michigan. >> excellent. >> i got a simple one for you. i'm 85 years old. i have an adequate retirement. i'm concerned about what future events may do to my equities. should i be buying gold or silver.

10% of your assets in gold. it works for a long time. that's how i view gold. i have not changed my view. i continue to think that gold is still not up to where i thought it should be given the fact when august 25th and china collapsed but it's an insurance policy. i like to have insurance. don't like paying for it but i have it. >> jeff in nevada, jeff. >> cramer, thanks for taking my call. my patient is united airline. jamie baker calling for a record yahoo! finance -- or this year, yahoo! finance shows everybody going up 20% except for united dropping from $12 to $8 a share. what am i missing? >> some people feel that united

managerially. cheaper is american airlines that people feel better run. i don't know, delta and southwest is a very good company but i have been recommending delta as the play on the airlines. that's my favorite. don't have to hurry to buy it. >> how are you doing? >> struggling like everyone else. >> i wanted to know with all the concern around firearms would this be a good time to pick up swhc. >> i think that the stocks just spiked. i'm loath to come in after a spike to buy because the history in this market is that when you have a spike in a particular segment there's sellers

some degree of value. >> there's sellers that are not yet finished okay? so we'll play by different rules. be a little more rigorous. be a little, let's say tough. twhast this market requires. it. on "mad money" tonight, china is taking a queue from tom petty and can't stop free falling but could there be some scenarios where something good happens? only thing to fear is fear itself and i'm helping you manage your anxiety with my survival guide. not a buy guide. a survival guide just ahead. and oil plunged today. what does it mean for the overall industry? stick with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer #madtweets. send an e-mail to

head to madmoney.cnbc.com. >> whenever we have to navigate through this chaos we wish we had more to go on. more analogs and patterns and totems. they can be helpful in times of turmoil and a quick programming note in terms of turmoil, i'll be with you tonight on a cnbc special trying to help you do just that.

cause is china. more specifically the chinese yuan and break down of the chinese stock market. assuming the chinese market opens down maybe size bli tomorrow which i think is likely we can expect the shanghai composite to trade down below the 3,000 level that the communist government is so fix sated on last summer. what would that mean for us? patterns, totems, maybe we see what our market was like. revisit the late august lows when our stock market was hit with a flash crash and bottomed on august 24th. a couple of days before china. s&p 500 as low as 1,867. dow briefly dipping to 15,370. that's nearly 1200 points below where it went out today because with the chinese market collapsing it's possible we could end up testing those levels. have a couple of caveats. the federal reserve would tell

raised rates. second a major commodity collapse with the most relative commodity falling from 39 to 33 and change. the company's focus on the consumer should be doing better. companies involved in international exports might have stronger bottom lines than we think. even if it's possible china could be hurting anyone doing business there. i wouldn't touch those companies, you know that. what could we learn at looking from the dow jones averages this summer. first only five dow stocks are are below where they traded. but the ones that have apple, american express and ibm. they each reported worse earnings since then. and key cell phone semiconductor supplies are reporting major short falls including two after the close this evening.

if you're selling to the consumer you're doing okay but not industrial. goldman, who knows. it is versus all the other financials. if it had a higher dividend i'd probably tell you to buy it but it doesn't so i don't. many dow stocks are well above their august lows maybe that shouldn't be the case. two stand outs that are bothersome to me, chevron and exxon. 69 and 68 respectively back then versus 83 and $76 today even though oil is well below where it was back then. they're the highest quality players no doubt but their stocks don't make much sense to me up here. third much of the big gains in the dow are either the result of better than expected numbers or changes in the capital structure. real fundamental positives.

depot and nike all rallied on excellent upside surprises. dupont rocketed thanks to the dow chemical merger. all of these stocks seem vernalable to me. nike does too. so i'm not in a hurry to dump it but it's higher than in august. home depot is doing great but that's an expensive domestic hiding place. the stock could be vulnerable. it's from 90 to 115 now. but it's becoming a turn around story. people want to buy that stock into the weakness. ge falls into the same category. too many buyers in between. what else seems odd? most of the health care and consumer stocks are at near their lows from late august. i don't fear those except for j and j. that's up $8. no particular reason.

i label those stocks suspect. they all have business in china too. walmart is back to where it was at the end of august but traded much lower. i don't know how the turn is going but the stock got too cheap and now the consumer is better with the $2 gasoline. i understand why it could rally so big today. united health seems shaky to me given that it's up since late august. finally there's 3-m which my charitable trust owns and united technology and disney. all are viewed as having weakened because of either asian business or in the case of though star wars just literally broke every box office record. 3m's low seems like a logical disney could try to make a standoff where it was back then though i do like the way disney hung in with some of the other companies. traded to 88.

here. i do expect it to come down. it took numbers down. lot of chinese exposure. when you compare the dow components to where they were the last time it broke down you get a pretty mixed to negative picture and a hand full make sense to buy. let's explore china itself. what's the worst case scenario if they decide not to prop up their stock market at 3,000 like last august? they're probably going to do it but we have to plan for the best. we have to analogs here. this could be october of 1987 situation where the dow plunged to 1400 in a couple of weeks but nothing really happened to the u. s. economy. or china could be facing a nasdaq 2000 scenario which might boom and bust have been similar

that would mean it has another 850 odd points of down side. if that's the case, what happens to the chinese economy? very little. but the chinese market isn't big enough. not even at 6 trillion to do that much damage. although at 4 trillion after that landslide. here's the bottom line. reforwardless of how bad things get for the stock market let's remember in 1987 and 2000 stock marketrashes the actual impact of our economy was slight and those crashes actually happened here. so maybe we all need to take a deep breath and remember, news flash, if we live in the united states, not the people's republic of china. much more mad ahead. this market might have you feeling stressed but forget breathing exercises. i'm going to help calm your nerves. then rustoleum, should you get to know it's stock? a real company.

hit 12 year lows today but are investors worried about the commodity overblown? stick with cramer. you get a cold. you can't breathe through your nose. suddenly, you're a mouthbreather. a mouthbreather! how can anyone sleep like that? well, just put on a breathe right strip and pow! it instantly opens your nose up to 38% more than cold medicine alone. so you can breathe and sleep. shut your mouth and say goodnight mouthbreathers. breathe right you're getting 3 here. alright? here goes. yep. [ crunching ] oh! cheddar, sour cream & onion, and salt & vinegar. wow! wow! how did you do that?! i can see through the blindfold.

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>> we have nothing to fear but fear itself. fear and fear is very palpalble

endless selling like we have seen since the beginning of the year. i'm not saying that fdr was wrong about the fear and fear itself address. i'm saying that the stock market is an emotional beast and the beast is a bear and not a bull. this is the most high anxiety market i can recall since 2011. but in a classic example of what i'm talking about the high anxiety moment, overnight the uber investor came out and said we could be about to have another 2008 experience. he said the safety. nevertheless the 24th richest man in the world speaks we can't miss him. what are we doing in this

something that brings your anxiety and help you feel less adrift. and not buy decisions and better decisions. >> suppose we assume that it's as bad as 2008 and china was still over here and bring down our banking system and repeated the great recession? the average stock and the s&p 500 is now down 20% from its high. you can wonder if we're beginning to be in a bear market but that's already the definition of a bear market. technically stock versus been break down for ages now with only a hand full of very overvalued names making the overall averages look better than they are. things are fragile indeed and we're now fighting the fed. something that makes it impossible to think things could be as good as they were before when the fed hadn't started tightening. it's all terrible, all bad, all broken. don't need a weather man to know

way it feels. you can't tell anyone to be fearful if things weren't so hot. how did you make money back then? the answer you bought the accidentally high yielders or ahys as they were nicknamed in the recession. what's an accidental high yielder? it can afford to pay a good dividend that ballooned into a big yield. now let me make this real clear. the company that has to be able to cover that dividend out of the cash flow. plenty of oil and cash firm versus big yields here. there are other companies like chevron. that's a good solid business committed to its dividend and yields 5% but there's two reasons why i'm not inclined to pick it at. chevron stock traded lower last time china blew up.

that oil was at $30 and now it's at 33. that doesn't add up to me. how about you? but what does. all right. how about verizon? but i think they're more likely to raise the dividend than cut it. remember the 10 year treasury, a descent comparison is yielding less than half of what you get from verizon. i like that. what else? how about pfizer. here's a stock a point away from the last big china scare in august. yield is 4%. give or take. pfizer is not only good for the dividend but also merging with allergen which will be spectacular for shareholders. i think that stock would hold up under a chinese-led on slot. how about plays on the consumer. i think l-brands, walgreens and constellation brands all of which reported this very day and put up excellent numbers are places to go if they pull back on china.

history. and constellation raised numbers. people don't cut back on beer except for maybe me because i'm on one of these rotten cleanses with my wife. it's driving me crazy. walgreens put up 5% same store sales numbers today. i doubt any of these companies will be doing business that retreats. i like it even more now that the weather has gotten colder. how can they put up good numbers? because the world isn't ending. a lot of spare change at the pump. the consumer velzing it might be the new number. no wonder walmart down 30% last year rallied the last week of august. walmart is strong because the consumer is still strong and

in one of the worst day in ages. i'm acutely conscious of the fact that when i say these stocks work back then someone might start shouting or say jim on twitter. cramer is bullish, buy, buy, buy. now i'm not bullish. i'm saying they can create as they go down. to say the decline is beginning after the average stock is down 20% seems complacent. i'm stimulating that people are acting on fear which is ending the market lower, fear of earnings in technology stocks. and if these fears somehow all come true, now you have your survival guide. you know what worked last time the fears came true and the systemic risk was here. not across the ocean in china tom in georgia, tom. >> hey, jim.

>> we love your show and thanks for the guidance. >> thank you. >> my question today for fitbit i'm a big fan of the product and kept my eye on it since the ipo in june. i decided to get in but purchasing three rounds in the low $30 range in early december today it continues to slide to $21.50. should i hold the stock or take my losses? >> i think you should hold it. i think fit bit is doing well. that's the company. the stock is not doing well. are they diverging right here? there's a fear that everyone is coming in to get them. whether it be underarmor or apple and apple is going to report a bad number and there are many spill over implications of that with the apple watch. do i think fit bit is going to go higher in the next 48 hours? two weeks? i don't know. do i think it's a good company? yes i do.

don't think fit bit is a good sell here. i just don't. jude in new jersey. >> hey, jim, how are you? >> i'm good. how about you. >> first of all i want to thank you. your staff is terrific. >> thank you. they are great. >> yes and also you do a terrific job of having me make money. >> thank you and is sis coe food still a good investment with the volatility in the restaurant business? >> well, you know, the restaurant business is getting better because of the lower price of gasoline however cisco was going to buy a company and then the stock took off and when i loved it was when it yielded four. it only yields three now. why am i defaulting the yield? that worked for me in 2008. it's a couple of buck toos high. maybe 35 where it was before it had the big rally will be the right place to be. there's plenty of fear in the market but now you're at least armored with a survival guide. i'm trying to get you to think better. not to buy better.

much more mad money ahead. especially rpm international is a real company and inspired big time consumer industrial brands. could the domestic player that makes so many products you used protect your profits in this uncertain market? and oil continues to steady decline but might not be all bad news. and you don't have to tackle this tough market alone. i'm answering your calls, rapid fire, tonight's edition, lightning round. stick with cramer. my son and i used to watch the red carpet shows on tv now, i'm walking them. life is unpredictable

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after yet another brutal decline for the averages, can we please, please, please remember that these hideous market-wide sell offs can ultimately create bargains for high quality stocks if you're willing to stay calm. consider rpm international. you know this company. it's the maker of paints, coating, roofing systems, for both consumer and industrial end markets. it's getting no respect in this market whatsoever even though

quarter in a row. granted rpm gets roughly 30% of its sales from the u.s. housing market. if the fed keeps raising rates people worried about housing in general now and the company has plenty of international exposure too. very little in china though. it's getting hurt by the strong dollar. we can find a way to deal with that. but it doesn't mean something beat yesterday morning. in line revenues. the stock trades less than $2 above it's low. could this be giving you an opportunity of bargain or do we need to tread lightly? let's take a closer look at the chairman and ceo and hear more about the quarter and where his company is headed. welcome back to "mad money." good to see you, sir. >> we have your products. it's a real company that makes real things. and you have a record, a family business that has a record of returning money to shareholders one of the best in the new york

are you going to sweat where china opens tonight? >> we are not. our exposure to asia is less than 3%. 70% of our revenues in north america and 20% in europe and our businesses are doing well. we reported earnings yesterday up 20% year over year and 8% sales growth and expect the rest and it's all about innovation and organic growth and the fact that 2-thirds of our products are maintenance and repair or redecorating as opposed to new construction or cyclical products. >> so you talk about bail square feet of roofing that needs -- let's say a touch up or maybe a total redo and you go to rpm to do it. >> this was an example. it was popular in the 70s and 80s. coming off warranty and the end of their useful life now is over

and our roofing business has come up with a proprietary system that can extend the life of the roofs with the cost of replacements. you totally eliminate the land fills with the roofs and it's all reroofing. not new construction. >> this is what is important. i want people to understand, we talk about stocks all the time. there are companies that actually generate a lot of income from -- your company paid a dividend consecutive for more than almost every company in the world. >> 42 straight years. >> yet you raised the dividend. >> our goal is to raise it every year. i made a quote yesterday, albert einstein was quoted as saying that compound in interest was the 8th wonder of the world. well you like a dividend that grows modestly every year because it's better. >> at the same time you're an innovator that happens to make

around the house. rustoleum is not what i mom used. >> right. new products. really exciting. >> how do you deal with the fact that there's people now saying what are they talking about rpm? don't they realize the world is falling apart? >> our job is to please our consumers and customers and be innovative. it's the life blood of my business. we try and cannibalize our existing products with new and better products. rustoleum is coming out. you'll see it introduced in stores all of our big customers in february. rock solid. a great entrepreneur came to rpm. nobody can attract entrepreneurs and their companies like we can. we're very proud of that. we innovated garage floor coatings about 8 years ago. created the market and it was an over the weekend project.

bringing industrial technology that's consumer friendly and an overnight project. you can start on saturday. sunday night you're done. better looks. better finish. and quicker for the consumer. so it's constantly trying to improve on our existing products and then also bringing new ideas. >> well, i have to tell you, i'm so glad you're here tonight because you're a business man and you know that business gets done regardless of whether shanghai is down 7%. you have an innovation team that created the best in the country. that's what i want. that's frank sullivan. chairman and ceo of rpm international. thank you for explaining to us that there's real business being done. >> jim, thank you very much. he said sure. but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists. with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. and oral-b delivers a clinically proven superior clean

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it is time. it's time for the lightning round. and play this sound. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready? time for the lightning round. start with paul in arkansas, paul. >> hi. buy, sell, or hold? >> no, they already have a government regulation issue and oil going down. the numbers are probably too high. i'll say stay away. >> hey, jim. how are you? >> i'm all right. how about you, sir. >> good. good. hey, the question is on united steel. >> no, the chinese are too busy getting rid of their subsidized dumping steel and that's what is killing their company as well as it's pipe business in the oil patch. elizabeth in nevada.

buy sell or hold? >> i happen to like the guys at aig now. the stock is now under it's tangible book. is there a hurry to do it? you'd buy it down in stages. it's not a bad company at all. let's go to dan in minnesota. >> booyah. >> booyah. >> $43 a share special dividend coming up shortly. what about visteon. >> i'm in that camp now. we're seeing peak autos. so then i can't be all that excited about a company that sells into the auto market. when i saw the numbers we just got right and i know that the fed is going to raise it's going to hurt all so i'm not in a hurry to own a peak auto supplier. barbara in michigan. >> yes, jim. happy new year and booyah to you from michigan. wolverine country.

>> thank you. radius health has been dropping yesterday and today but lately. can you give me a hold or a buy on that? >> well, radius is a speculative stock and you have very solid companies like amgen and celgene getting crushed. you have to expect this one will get crushed more and up more. you have to understand it was pure speculation. everybody is allowed to speculate. you should speculate in one or two positions out of ten but it is a speculative stock and this is what happens. >> brad in new york, brad. >> booyah, cramer. i just want to say thanks for having my pack. >> doing my best, man. what's going on. >> my question was about cig group. at 6 times earnings is this a buy? >> well, it's a financial and the financials are starting to go down because people feeling like interest rates aren't going higher. they're caught in a rock and a

though it is at the 52 week low. i don't see a lot of reasons why i need to be in it. let's go to corey in massachusetts. >> jim, thank you for having me. i'm in a bio tech with great results and the $800 million market that's flowing 150%. what's your take on sgyp? >> i know that there was -- i saw a downgrade by city the other day. i have to check my bio tech bible from the street. i'm not ready at this moment to opine on it because it's a current and fluid situation and that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade. (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time...

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>> with oil breaking down again, down to where it was at the very depths of the great recession now, what does it mean for the industry? i think december of 2008 where oil traded at this exact price is the wrong analog because that was caused by a real decline in demand. what we have now is a massive supply glut so let's ponder another time when we last saw such an oversupply of crude. when it traded in the 20s. if oil returns to these levels, what happens? i would bet many of the independent oil companies could spiral into oblivian. many natural gas companies would

reorganization. but and this is the biggest but in the world, we would also raise earnings estimates. >> many traders view it as a sign. and the declines are cyclical stocks. we refuse to see the weakness in oil is a sign of overproduction. not under demand. to everyone worries that the declines in the oil and gas sector will overwhelm the rest of the economy despite the fact that it's advances in the oil and gas sector that hurt us. last time when i sat down with kevin o'leary we talked about how great it is for our country that oil is going down. take a listen. >> i know it's bad for that sector grown men are weaponing, i get it. oil is going to 25. i get it. but what about the other nine

leave energy out of it and look at input costs. they're going to rock. >> kevin reconciled the decline in the price of oil with real businesses. why? he's a real business person. when you say it to yourself or i say it outloud i sound like i'm being a pollyanna. but when you talk business person to business person you have a rigorous discussion with a bottom line guy and the bottom line say huge boost from this decline. go ask the fed. we're dealing with an oil stock hang over of massive proportions. stock hang over. a hang over of stock creation. it's the inevitable consequence of the boom going bust. too much money raised. too many ipos. too much debt sold. too many limited partnerships dreamed up and put together. they are crushing people. i know that.

i bet ever oil company executive is jealous of how pioneer was able to sell yesterday down $8 from the last sale and raise critical capital. they all need to raise capital. you don't want to be part of the capital rising but the negative spill over hasn't happened yet. they're diversified enough that it won't crush their earnings as it might have done we wouldn't be getting these numbers like yesterday's adp figures plus finally a sense of the positive spill over the real economy when earnings is week over week. i'm not saying that the cal vary is coming. not with the china overhang staring us in the face. i'm not saying it's all bad. i'm saying that it's not custard's last stand for the stock market or for the economy

a level considered unimaginable. boone pickens said he didn't think you could go much below 40

test so you know what you're doing and maybe you should be thinking long-term. that does help. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money."

i'll see you tomorrow.