tv U.S. Farm Report NBC December 6, 2015 6:00am-7:00am CST
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finding new ways to increase the amount of dairy consumed at the nation's restaurants. now for the news that moved the markets this week... the epa finally releasing it's long awaited mandates for blending renewable fuels with the nation's fuel supply. the e-p-a increased the ethanol volume targets for 2014, 2015 and 2016 from their proposed levels released last may. renewable fuel use for 2020 was boosted to over 18 billion gallons ...and according to growth energy that's above the 10 percent blend wall. though higher than the previous proposal, it's still well below the 22 billion gallon mark set by congress eight years ago. if
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than what wawaactually used in 2014. us ag exports continuing to fall. it's now forecast at 131-billion dollars for fiscal 2016. that's down from the august forecast and more than 8 billion less than a year prior. the value of us ag imports is now at 122 billion dollars, leaving an ag- trade surplususf about nine billion. usda economists say most of the decline is accounted for by lower mmodity prices, increased supplies of beef and pork and by diminishing chinese demand. during talks this week, federal reserve chair woman janet yellen hinting at an interest rate hike thihimonth. she says economic and financncl information isisonsistent with expectations and they expect improvements to continue. she says quote-- even after an initial increase the federal funds rate and monetary policy will remain accommodative. most economist expect rates to move from 0 to a quarter of a percent. the international monetary fund announcing this
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leading currencies as a standard in international banking. the i-m-f says the yuan meets all existing criteria to be included with the u-sollar, euro, japanese yen and the british pound. in dairy, the october all milk price released at 17-70 per hundred weight. production during the month climbing just point 1 percent--as lower prices continue pressure herd numbers. cow culling is up almost 4 percent on the year. production in california fell more than 5 percent in october the 11 straight month of decline. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather...mike should we expect more winter or a return to milder weather as we head through december? thanks, clinton, at least through the uiddle of december at least for the corn belt. i think we are going to continue to be on the mild side fairly tranquil side, but things may change after that. especially as we head toward christmas,in the meantime drought monitor east of the continental divide just not really an issue. just a couple of pockets with moderate
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news there is that we are in a pattern of storm after storm coming into the west coast and that's going to be the case as we come into this coming week so you can see a pretty good storm, causing a lot of rain along the coast, northern california, into western washington, oregon a little bit of rain and snow east of there, but these first two systems come in and dry out over the plains. so even though there is a cold front there, no real rain, weak system causing some showers in the southeast. otherwise dry through the middle of the country, most of this week. a weak system moving through on wednesday for the southern mississippi valley into the southeast, continues dry for the e rtheast, great lakes back into the northern plains, down into the four corner region, but this is a stronger system it will cause another batch of rain along the coast and by friday that system is moving through the east, decent rain for the mid-atlantic, southern appalachians into florida just scattered showers, great lakes intotohe northeast and yet two more systems coming in from west to east this one has some fairly
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rockies, some showers in eastern colorado, parts of nebraska and along the coast line, obviously. we will be back in our next half hour with a longer range forecast. when we come back we're headed to chicago and the executive women iningriculture conference for this week's round table discussion on markets. (out special coverage of the executive women in agriculture
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monsantotoon behalf of america's farmers.) welcome back to u.s. farm report. joining me here on the panel today at the executive women in agriculture conference in beautiful chicago. i have julianne johnston with pro farmer. i have naomi blohm with stewart peterson, and angie setzer of citizens grain. let's start by talking about this rfs
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you heard and what the epa said? >> my gut reaction was it was good they didn't get rid of it. you know, we were really going in with a lot of opposition and a lot of trouble. a lot of groups were spending tons of money to try to trash the rfs and basically do all they could. in may the epa had come out and talked about a reduction of volume. they actually came in and lifted it up a little bit from their initial numbers in may, and so to me the main thing to remember when it comes to the rfs is that that's just a support level. that's a minimal level, that is not a cap. so it gives us the ability to continue to produce. we can out produce what the rfs is, and now is the time to really try to build that ethanol export infrastructure as well as the fact that the usda's spending millions of dollars to help improve the e 15 or increase the e 15 availability and all of that good stuff. so i saw it and it really, it wasn't
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what'd you think, naomi? your reaction? >> yeah, i absolutely agree with what she said. the one thing that i appreciated more on it was that what they had come out for ethanol was 14.5 million galalns billion gallons -- and what that equates to in terms of corn use was exactly what the usda had pegged. so it keeps a nice floor in the market. it keeps the demand there. it wasn't anything to make the market go higher, but it was just welcomed news. >> okay, and julianne, how does this impact maybe exports or kind of those end users as we go through the e st of the year? >> well, the ethanol demand has been a building business, and when you start going from 14 billion gallons to 14.5 billion gallons we can expect more demand domestically. that's where we are with the strong dollar is finding that we're building our domestic demand which is very important. but also with the epa announcement came an increaea in bio diesel that was unexpected, and that
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that announcement more so than the corn market. >> okay, very good. you mentioned it a little bit. you talked a little bit about the dollar there. naomi, your thoughts on fed chair, janet yellen, considering and hinting more and more and maybe an interest rate hike come december. your thoughts on the dollar and our interest rates and how those two impact our commodities. >> yeah, it's key. they're hand in hand with this higher dollar. of course our exports are down. yellen, i believe on friday, tomorrow, she's going to be coming out with more of a final statent and then the coming weeks if they are or not doing the interest rate. if they do it the market is probably going to say, been there done that. we might see a little bit of a setback. if they don't raise rates, well, that will be nice, new news, but overall if we have a setback it will be a nice way to see the commodity futures bounce up a little bit. that will be an opportunity for cash sales. . the bigger picture, though, i i feel personally that the dollar is going to continue to go higher in the years to come just because of all of the global shenanigans happening. >> sure.
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setback we have in the dollar, use it to make your cash sales because it will give the futures a bump. >> real quick, angie, you agree? >> yeye, i agree. i realal think right now at this point in time most traders have bought the dollar or pushed the dollar up as of late with the expectation that yellen's going to raise rates. and the million dollar question, of course, is the imf has made some changes to their currency basket, so the question will be, are we going to see some other changes develop? some south american countries are trying to move away from their very leftist policies as well. their currencies are very low, so do we see some people kind of leave the dollar and move in that direction because it's a good buy? so we always tell people to kind of stay away from the crowded trades and buying the buck right now is a little crowded in my opinion. >> okay. julianne, she e ntioned south america. we kind of had some recent news out of argentina. real quick, your thoughts on argentina and maybe the impact?
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argentine announcement of reducing, eliminating the tariffs immediately on corn and wheat is going to encourage those producers to sell their grain that they ve b bn hoarding, and it's going to be moving to the market. and this is a weight on the global market. however, if we do see the dollar help u.s. markets become more competitive we could find some hand to mouth buyers, but with the global situation that we have with plentiful grains across the globe it's going to be hard for the u.s. to remain competitive. >> okay. well, we'll talk more about that coming up in our next segment. we'll be right back with more u.s. farm right after this.
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farmers.) welcome back to u.s. farm report. naomi, we were talking about south america right before the break. you think that maybe it could impact our wheat markets here at home. >> yeah, i do because what they're talking about with the tariffs and the reduction of tariffs is to take it from a 23% tax rate potentially down to nothing, so that absolutely gives their producers more incentive to sell wheat but also to grow wheat. and so now we already have a huge surplus of wheat all around the world, and now we're just going to add to this glut. we have this supply issue that continues to grow, and even though there's a couple hiccups wet weather-wise with the crop in india and australia, it still continues to be a little bit more of a negative situation for the wheat market. >> okay. now, angie, you're a little more cynical about how this is all going to play out. >> i'm always cynical. no, i am. i mean, that's everyone's seen every presidential election since they were 15 and realized that promises are very easy to make, but actually following through can be a struggle. so
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relies on 20% 30% of this revenue as a source of government funding in their gdp. so the million dollar question when you have nearly half of your population relying on government services is, what do you do to replace that revenue? so i think it could happen, something may take place where they do eliminate those taxes. they're saying they're going to basically december 11th, which is perfectly understandable because he should follow through on some of his promises, but my secondary question comes from the fact that when you have one good game in town ie the farmers in argentina, what are they going to do to kind of try to reace that revenue source? so i'm still a little hesitant to think that we're going to wake up in the middle of december and have boat loads of wheat being shipped out of argentina. you know, pipeline issues as well. you can only ship out so much. >> sure. >> so a lot of traders
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we may have factored in some of the knee jerk and then we'll start to see maybe some easing of the panic that is taking place with the action in argentina. >> thanks, angie. let's switch gears real quick, talk about livestock and the cattle market because, boy, it's been beat up the last few weeks. >> a year ago we sat here and the cattle market was the best game in town. we were putting in a ten year cycle high that was delayed because of the drought, and we started building the herd by keeping heifers out of the slaughter mix and the supply isn't the problem. the cattle market didn't decline sharply this year because of supply. it was domestic demand. it was global demand. it was that strong dollar. it was the port situation that we had in january and february. cold storage stock shouldn't be at lofty levels that they are, and then we had cattle weights rise too much because producers were trying to make up for the declining cattle prices, and we're at a dysfunction in this market. and basisilly what needs to hahaen is the market needs to simply decide that enough's enough and
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futures market where well, obviously producers aren't making money right now, but we're also below a fdamental level that we should be trading at. >> okay. let's talk dairy real quick, naomi, because you work in that market a lot, and it's been down this yearars well. what fundamentals are you watching on the e iry side? >> we cononnue to watch supply and for the past year, year and a half we've said we had a lot of supply. it was that our export market was so hot that we could export as much as we were making on any dairy product. well, now that doesn't happen anymore because the dollar is so high. that's really made a mess of everything. so we still have a supply issue where supply's plentiful, but the good news is that now that supply is just coming more stationana, and the most recent milk production report said that production was up just .1%, so that means we're just starting to make supplies stay the same, but we have to get that export market going again. and our powder market is really strong right now because
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we still have a lot ofofutter that's not being exported and cheddar, and that's what we have to start getting through. we have to get those markets out. >> okay, real quick, angie, talk about the end user and the pull through, some of these livestock folks, pulling some of this grain we've got a big crop. >> oh yeah, yeah. i mean the good part a aut having increased herds when it comes to livestock and then we're replenishing our poultry numbers of course, because we hopefully at this point in time seemed to have missed that bullet again of the bird flu epidemic this fall that the usda was anticipating. that's helpful from a feed standpoint. million dollar quqution of course thougugis we are makingng lot of ethanol, which we're making ddgs as a result. chcha's come in and toldld us for the second time in four years they don't want our distillers, so we are getting a little backed up on that. soil oil exports have been phenomenal. soy oil demands big, bio diesel, things like that. in order to get soy oil you have to crush beans and get soybean meal. so the one thing thaha
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a lot of by products and then we have, you know, excessive amounts of milo as well as wheat. >> well, expansion in livestock industry is helping with the ddgs. >> yeah. >> sure, domestically. >> we'll be right back with your closing thoughts here on market now right after the break. (recieve a free trial of the daiai market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bower trading. view the markets like never before. go to bowertrading dot
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going to probably get a seasonal balance higher. the funds are going to be doing some short coverings, that makes the futures price balance a little bit. make that your opportunity to get current on cash sales because going intotohis next year t t outlook with everything we know right now is not the best, so when you're making your sales don't just think of where you're at right now but think of the overall weighted average
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only of what you have just harvested but what you're going to be planting also and be thinking about forward contracting that t t. >> all right. angng? >> kind of piggyback a little bit on that. we've e en some opportunities in areas outside of your northern western corn belt fringe states where the basis has been poor, but the eastern corn belt, parts of iowa throughout illinois and things like that we've seen some really good basis opportunities that are historic levels for this time of year. so i have a lot of growers asking me, should i be taking advantage of that? and the answer is, yes. make sure you're doing what you need to do. know what your cash flow needs are, and just make sure you have a target in mind from a cash price standpoint and utilize any pops that happen in the futures market ahead of christmas as the present that they are. >> all right. and julianne? >> obviously i have a lot of problems with the fundamental situation not being realized in the prices for the cattle market, but we've got get weights back under control. lots are backed up, and that has added more pressure to the cattle markets. get lots
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thoughts and tendencies of voters may get tougher. john phipps joins us from his illinois farm to explain. we're down to the final year of the 2016 election season, and there seems to be a problem. according to a recent paper by political scientists, our main source of ammunition for policy arguments is becoming unreliable. people are not responding to surveys like they used to. not only are we not answering public surveys when contacted, when we do particpate, we skip some questions or answer inaccurately. all this leads to
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feeling sorry for researchers who are worried about this development. after all these are the people who call you at all hours, but especially incovenient times. moreover, many so-called surveys are just thinly disguised marketing scams. but as this election season grinds on endlessly, the consequence of americans' increasing refusal to share information with pollsters could make for surprising results. what is really curious about this is how we have been trained to read poll results like thth score of a game, talking about momentum and lead changes as if they actually existed. when even the highest quality polls and surveys have larger ranges of error, the results should be taken very skeptically. couple thatatith a large proportiti of badly designed or executed polls that generate baised results, and we could be creating more
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this is why i think we will move from asking questions to tracking decisions like how we spend money or where we go on the internet. it will be phones, not polls. regardless it is ironic that as we get faster and mo precise technology to gather information, our increasingly reluctant participation is making survey results less useful than before. thanks john...his world and the world we l le in. still to come....on the next half hour of u.s. farm report... world leaders talk climate john phipps opens the farm report mail bag. and we'll dig into home grown demand for u.s. dairy. from the
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report. straight ahead on u.s. farm report... climate cooperation...nations meet in paris to discuss a way forward on a carbon neutral planet. driving demand...a.aew approach is helping build customers and ice support for the e tion's dairy industry. customer support--john phipps answers questions about advice from the show. the market mindset-- baxter black on the pysche of the cattleman. fantastic
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headlines...world leaders gathered in paris this week to address the issue of climate change. president barack obama says he was confident the world will forge a major climate change agreement in the coming weekek obama spoke as he ended a two-day trip to paris for a united nations conference on climate. he was among dozens of aders who descended on the city to kick off the final weeks of talks on an international agreement to reduce global carbon emissions. < "all of this will be hard. getting 200 nations to agree on anything is hard and i am sure there will be moments over the next twtwweeks where progress seems stymied and everyone rushes to write that we are doomed. but i am convinced that we're going to get big things done here." > in conjunction with the climate conference, monsanto announcing plans thiseek to make its operations carbon neutral by 2021. ceo hugh grant says the "untold story" is agriculture's effort to address the issue.
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emission controls and conserving energy at their facilities. grant says a key element of the plan is working with farmers by offering incentives to encourage environmentally friendly production methods like cover crops and conservation tillage. opec oil ministers have effectively scrapped their official output ceiling and agreed to keep producing above that level. for consnsers, that means gagaline prices could drdr even further. opec is unhappy with crude prices hovering around $40 a barrel. but only a few members appeared ready to cut output in an attempt to drive up prices. washington getting work done on a new transportation bill. the highway funding bill also includes a fix to crop insurance cuts that were included in last month's budget deal. the bill, formally known as h.r. 22, authorizes $305 billion in spending. it is the first five-year transportation authorization bill in more than 10 years. it's encouraging congress is looking to have a
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identified isn't that sustainable. and they've found some offsets with gov. agencies that don't have to do with transportation. one things we argue, is that we should have a sustainable transportation system in which use ofofhe system pays for the system.> also included in the bill, an agreement to let bulk trucks carry milk across state lines without needing to offload at the border due to differing ight requirements. the national milk prododers federation is praises the amendment. meanwhile agri-pulse says the usda is planning an overhaul of how it regulates biotechnology. the changes could allow companies and university scientists to develop and test new crops without the usda oversight critics say has slowed innovation. usda would focus on the approval a a regulation of field trials only on plantntand
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scientists in uganda say they are making progress in genetically modified bananas, allowing them to be more disease and drought resistant. bananas are a staple food of this african country. the risk of a bacteria destroyininthe crop is a real threat that scientists are hoping to combat. the bacteria causes the banana plant to wither and affects the quality of the fruit. banana crops are also spoiled by drought.
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populations shows in 2014--bee colonies were at a 20 year high. the country with roughly 2 point 7 million managed colonies. that's in spite of high numbers of annual losses. officials say it's bee keepers that are helping manage populations meanwhile water continues to be an issue on the west coast. a new ground water law set to take effect in 2020 could have a big impact on ag in the state. the sacramento bee reports as many as 300-thousnad acres could permanently disappear from production if anticipated limits are imposed. the state also releasing its first forecast for water allocation. regulators say at this point it will likely allocate just ten percent of the water requested by 29 publicwater agencies. california says depending on how much rain and snow that hits the state this year, the allocation may be increased or decreased. that's
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nanaonal forecast. mike i can't help but n nice we're starting to see more and more storms coming in off f the west coast. thanks, clinton, you have been noticing correctly. in fact, when i put this jet stream into motion the one thing that you are going to notice is just ripple, after ripple, after ripple coming along out of the pacific, right across the lower 48, occasionally they kind of try to close off a little bit, but then they just keep on moving, that's a system situation, where you are just going to have one storm after another every couple of days. now they are not going to cause something where you live every time, although the west coast more than likely that will be the case. here's my thirty day outlook for temperatures: below normal, southern mississippi valley, southern half of the plains, four corner region into the southwest--above normal for the northern plains to the mid-atlantic and everywhere off to the northeast. precipitation over the next 30 days: above normal for the west coast, which
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texas, throughout the east coast area and from about the ohio river southward. the below normal area then: for the western lakes, back into the northern half of the rockies. clinton? milk prices are significantly lower than last year's record setting levels. however, u.s. farmers are seeing prices hold better than some of their global counter parts. part of that reason is a strong desire for dairy products at meal time. nats ... got milk it's a slogan that's been engrained into american culture-- but today-- check off funded--dairy management inc-- is refocusing its efforts. about 8 years ago...the group made the strategic decision to move away from advertising and more toward partnerships in the food industry.... it started with pizza--and helping the big boys find and use more cheese. it's just been astounding the amount of milk sales we're movingngbecause there's more cheese on pizza's now. and they call it the catalytic effect. once they did it with dominoes then pizza hut picked up on it and now more small chains are adding more cheese it kind of snowballs.
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over the last 18 months cheese sales are up big--converted back to milk--the demand has grown roughly 4 billion pounds. now they're trying that with fluid milk and restaurant chains like taco bell. taco bell is using dairy management inc food service expertise to develop products and stuff if flying off the shelf and it is working. and it's not stopping there...butter may be the next big market. the mcdonalds partnership they just recently announced they're switching from vege oils to real butter..mcdonalds' corporate says that could be 600 million pound incremental sales and we've talked to their supply chain people that have to come up with that product and they're saying it going to be more than that. and if mcdonalds does it
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hamburger places if they go to it this thing could be a billion pounds of incremental milk. it's unreal how these partnerships are really paying dividends right now. i mean farmers some times argue why work with these huge companies with millions and millions of dollars but if they don't have that expertise in the food service area and really in what consumers want you're not going to get that pull through and we're seeing that really start to pay off. payoff in demand and pay off at the farm... i think if you look at world dairy prices now we're well above what global prices are and a lot of that here in the u.s. is because of strong domestic demand. all of these programs every gallon of milk that is sold helps move more product. taco bell officials told dairymen and women at the elite producer's business conference last month, that the dmi partnership--and it's dairy experts--is helping the company bring new products to market more quickly. many of which include cheese. next john phipps answers your email. "are we giving conflicting advice? maybe, maybe not." join us this
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questions about where and how we put together the news and content for u.s. farm report. in this week's customer support john answers a viewer about what he thought was conflicting information. fred johnson in driggs, idaho wants to clear up some confusion. "your commentary followed a segment about the
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presented was for them to diversify into beef, and maybe hogs. then you came on and put up a graph of trends in livestock farming in which only chickens were doing well and beef was on a downslide. don't the show's producers/editors understand the value of giving their viewers good non-conflicting advice? why recommend farmers diversify into a declining segment?" send me an address fred for your heirloom mug. you raise a fair point. i'll try to shed some light on the process. first, tyne chooses and writes almost all the stories other than my stuff here from the farm. while we do coordinate, her responsibility is to get the news out, and show useful stories that can add deeper information, mine and i still struggle to believe this is to share an opinion. as a result, my thoughts and the thoughts of the experts we interview arise from different perspectives. the more important
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possible. producers have often complained to me that our market analyists don't agree each week, and from week to week. i think this is a good thing. viewers can choose which arguments they find most convincing and applicable to their operation. in short, the divergence of views on usfr is not a bug, it's a feature. we do not think producers are helped by being told what we think they want to hear, or by getting only one side of any issue. moreover, as new information is available, the best answer can change. our aim is not to confuse, but inform. in the case you mentioned, i was talking about overall industry trends, and the stories we featured were offering advice to individuals. the big trends can change. in fact, the best time to enter a business is often on the downslope, not when everyone else is optimistic. i hope this
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times those edges see a little overlap. don't go anywhere, baxter black joins us from 'out there' right after the break. enter to win this yamaha kodiak 799 eps, a great tool to have on the farm. just go to usfarmreport dot com and click on the link to get details. deadline is december 16th, so dont delay. we've talked a lot about market volatility in recent years and this that's especially true for cattlemen.
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and as baxter black tells it, sometimes its awful hard to separate our emotions from the business and our daily lives. there is an old story that claims that the last two old fellers left on board the titanic when it hit that iceberg and sank were cattle feeders. as the clung to the stern one was heard to say just hang on tommy it is bound to come back up. the law validity thee market in the cow business is legend. the cow
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is kind to his wife when the market is up his children think he is neat . the implement dealer sits by him in church. his banker waves on the street, salesman treat him like he was a king. the hired man, ask for a raise and press is reporting absorbent gains and the banker is singing his praise. a genius he humbly admits to himself smart as a tree of ales twenty feet tall with a bullet proof brain and a friend to all his
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pals. something occurs when the market goes down his family feels it first. the mother-in-law gives him plenty of room and the dog gets regularly cursed. he gets lots of mail from lawyers in town and the gas man wont fill up his tank . the feed company rep has forgotten his name and he is a laugher down at the bank. his ulcer is worst, his accountant is in jail and they repod the pickup he had. his jeans dont fit in the bag in the rear and they have chewed on his tail so bad. he might get discouraged but down at the sale his heart will rejuvenate a gambler in spirit whos living depends on the fickle finger of fate so just like the story of jeykell and hyde he is a wise man or clown a hero, a fool depending
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from out there. from out there... baxter will be back again next week...with more wit and wisdom. still to come on today's program...al pell joins us for tractor tales and a country church salute...stay with us. hang in there baxter... baxter will be back again next week...with more wit and wisdom. still to come on today's progarm... miss any of today's show? head to usfarmreport.com to watch the program online. u.s. farm report, trusted, timely tradition. > welcome back to u-s farm report and tractor
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they of step up and step down. they're kind of neat tractors. i bought this tractor from my neighbor. he does a lot of auctions and picked this one up at an auction and i bought it from him 5 years ago. this one don't get used too much. sets around and looks pretty. possibly one of the grandkids might want it later on. but i'd like to see it stay in the family. and im gonna just keep it around. it would be one of the last things that i would part with. its a pretty tractor too. you could hook a wagon up to the front and back it into a barn a lot easier than you could just back the tractor up. its
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its probably taken best of show and all the way down to third. does that come with a big check or just bragging rights? just bragging rights and a trophy. the ford 8-n took over for the 2n in 1947. the most visible difference between the two--a new paint scheme a lighter shade of gray contrasted by bright red cast iron. this week, we would like to recognize a church celebrating 150 years of worship. the rocky mount baptist church is located in polkton, north carolina--down along the southern border of the state. rocky mount started with only 35 members. congratulations on such a strong history and our thanks to judy carpenter for sharing their story. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - cropwatch is next. that's right clinton...take a look at this
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tulia, texas. as you can see in ice storms, trees often take the hardest hit. that's true and i got this picture from kristen harwell. it was taken just north of blair oklahoma. she says that even in the cold and sludgy mess...there are still moments of beauty to be found. kelsey hammon shared these pictures taken near longmont colorado...following recent snows along the front range. you can still see the storm clouds over the twin peaks there in the first picture. temperatures however, staying fairly mild--20's and 30's according to and the northern plains also seeing more snow this week. in northeast iowa, jeff kramer sent us this photo of him moving machinery in the snow. he says the area received 10 inches of snow about a week ago. mike--your final thoughts on weather for the week ahead? and
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good morning, terror in the spotlight. president obama after meeting with his top advisers in the white house situation room set it address the nation tonight about the battle against isis and keeping americans safe in the wake of san bernardino as the fbi launches a new raid at the home of the man who originally bought the assault rifles.
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