safe port? advance orders for the iphone 5 start today. how many are going to wait in line... or online? alternative energy stocks are hot - two traders debate which stocks to trade without getting burned. and in our cover story: manufacturing jobs are on the rise. but how do you get students excited about a career in making things? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. i'm bill moller. angela miles is off. here's our first look for a friday morning:

it's the first full trading day after the fed announcement, and qe3 will be all over the markets today. the central bank will extend super low short- term rates until at least mid- 2015. and it will buy upwards of $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. on the heels of the fed announcement, gold investors cheered. gold shot way up yesterday. money is pouring into gold- based exchange- traded funds. central banks are building their gold reserves. in germany you can buy gold at train stations. 100 years ago, jp morgan told congress, "gold is money. everything else is credit." the fed chairman said housing is the missing piston of the growth engine. but moody's has raised its outlook on the country's biggest homebuilders. low interest rates, lower home prices and pent- up demand prompts moody's to raise the outlook from stable to positive. and the u.s. government's budget deficit for this fiscal year has passed $1 trillion. actually it happened sometime last month. it took the treasury department a little time to crunch the numbers. for the fourth straight year the government has run a trillion-dollar-plus

deficit. you can certainly assume that the markets today will be driven by what the fed did yesterday. let's talk with ira epstein. he's the managing director of the linn group. let me just have you get at it: what's your analysis for what ben bernanke announced yesterday? > > political move. very bullish the stock market, bullish the metal markets. meant to get housing off the floor and get people back to work. and very very political. > > what was more important? what bernanke said in his afternoon news conference or the action that the fed took earlier yesterday? > > i think that today was the whole thing. in other words, what took place yesterday on the fed announcement was the key. all he did is come in and he juiced it up. he didn't tone it down. the man juiced it up and said, "they're doing whatever they have to do." this is your opening salvo. there is

more to come if this isn't enough. > > how do you buy into this? > > on breaks. normally what you get is that yin-yang. you get the first reaction, it goes to asia overnight, then it comes back. so today, you'll be looking at, i hope, some breaks in the market, and i think you take advantage of them. > > the dow did come back, but it was over 200 points, closing higher yesterday. do you think it's a sugar high, or is there some sustaining power here? > > i don't think this is a one-move high. the market wasn't looking for this aggressive of a move. so i do believe that on breaks the market is going to be bought, and there will be breaks. let's face it, these markets get frothy, then they come down again. but this is extremely bullish for the market. > > ira epstein from the linn group. you have a good trading day. > > thank you. there aren't a lot of tv shows glamorizing the career of manufacturers. but the sector is coming up with other ways to encourage students. a field trip to a very big trade show is a starting point for those involved with teaching a workforce. it's not a car, nor a sports figure that's caught the attention of students at this trade show. it's machine tools.

"i've always liked motors, even when i was little." "they're always going to have to make new things, be more advanced, more technlogical." wheeling high school in suburban chicago, along with other schools, led field trips to the international manufacturing technology show, hoping to foster an interest in manufacturing. not a difficult sell for some students who've already worked, for example, with a plasma cutter. "it's a cnc plasma cutter. what's cool about it? it's loud, makes a shower of sparks, cuts cool stuff." here, students saw that manufacturing doesn't depend as it used to on brute strength, but instead computers and problem solving skills, and may be a first step toward an engineering or business career. "i want to get an me degree with an emphasis in manufacturing. it's where the jobs are and what i like to do." the business research association the conference board finds positions for skilled workers have grown 152% since the recession. a georgetown study predicts more than 4.5 million certificated workers will be needed by 2018. "we have been getting girls

signing up for class. the industry knows that it needs more women engineers." all of this underscores the importance of showing young people how manufacturing is done and where a job in it may lead. "it's not just manufacturing, it's engineering manufacturing. these students are designing and improving things, and we hope to prepare them for skill- based careers." as for which states have the highest demand, right now for skilled workers in the u.s., the conference board lists ohio, michigan, texas, california, illinois and indiana. i mentioned there's some brightness around housing. still the dark cloud of foreclosures hangs over the market. overall the number of new foreclosures has dropped. but in several states they've increased. illinois had the highest rate in the country with 1 out of every 298 houses receiving a notice of foreclosure. other

states seeing higher numbers: maryland, new jersey, new york and florida. the rate has been dropping though in traditionally high-foreclosure states such as arizona, california and nevada. it's an economy thing - bank accounts are on the decline. the lack of free checking options means many american households can't afford the extra fees attached to opening accounts. about 8.2% of u.s. households forgo bank accounts in favor of riskier ways of getting cash, such as prepaid cards, payday loans, and check- cashing. around 6% claim credit problems are the reason for staying away from banks. others - around 18% - just prefer to use cash, and plan to get into banking in the future when finances are more secure. jobs with the most growth in the last year are a surprisingly eclectic bunch. among the top 10, software engineer is first, with a 74% growth rate since

last year. that's just ahead of customer service representative, which grew at a 50% rate. these numbers come from a survey by careerbuilder. social media managers are growing at 48%, with truck drivers at 45%. even with the tough job market, employers say they can't find enough people to fill some positions. the good news: they plan to hire and train workers with no experience. the teachers strike in chicago has fueled debate about how best to judge job performance. it's an intense issue in a lot of cities where public education is under pressure to improve. we found the public on both sides of whether to support the strike, and also asked whether teachers' job performance should be evaluated based on how high their students score on standardized tests. "no, absolutely not. i work hard for my money. i'm not lucky enough to have that. the harder i work, the more i make." "i do. i don't think they get enough credit. they're dealing with kids." "no, i don't. it isn't enough when you have unruly students and we don't have anything in place to deal with that."

"it puts the entire burden on teachers and that's not fair. these kids have problems in their neighborhoods that they bring to their school and affect their ability to perform." "already, there's a extensive debate about standardized tests, but now they're using them in a way they were not intended. this is going to open debate on how these tests are used." you have the digital data - photos, an e-book, maybe a self-published book you've written. you may soon be able to walk into a store, push a button and turn that data into a good old-fashioned book. a 3-way venture between on-demand books, reader link and kodak will bring this about. kodak has been trying to reinvent itself since its photo business was destroyed by the digital revolution. the machine that does this is called the expresso book machine. there's no word on pricing. go online to get in line or wait a week and stand in line.

today, apple begins taking advance orders for the iphone 5. though the phone's new features are not revolutionary, it's an iphone, and demand is expected to be unprecedented, or so say analysts. in fact, they expect it to be apple's best selling product ever, netting apple $5 billion within a month. if you want to test drive first, wait 'til next friday, when the phones go on sale in stores. look for iphone fanatics to start camping out next thursday, maybe wednesday. you might call it the fast car index. the view that the sales of high end luxury goods indicates overall economic health. the first half of 2012 was a banner period for the italian luxury sports car maker ferrari. it now expects higher results for the balance of the year. 2011 was a solid year, and chairman luca di montezemolo says "we look forward to ending 2012 having improved still further on last year." this year, ferrari built 3664 cars - a record. ferrari is

a unit of fiat, which also controls chrysler. makers of so-called "pink slime" beef products are hoping to fight back. beef products incorporated, which makes the beef product shunned by mcdonald's and safeway, plans to file a defamation lawsuit. it has closed three of its four plants and laid off 650 employees due to the rampant speculation over the product. "pink slime" is made from fatty trimmings. it's sprayed with ammonia to kill bacteria. still to come - romney, obama? who's going to do the most for job growth? our 2 experts go at it in a segment we call traders unplugged. but first, credit card debt protection plans? worth it? find out, next on first business.

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and they're here to help veterans affected by it. i can see that what we're doing here at the polytrauma unit is to move from survivability to thrive-ability. [male announce if you think you or a veteran you know has sustained a brain injury, get screened. whether it's a lawnmower or a vacuum clearner, you're always asked this question: "would you like to buy a product protection plan with that?" they're sold for all kinds of things - you can even get plans to bail you out of debt on your credit card. in fact, americans spend more than 2 billion dollars a year on that kind of insurance. but, do you really need debt protection? bill hardekopf is a credit card expert. he's also the ceo of the card information site lowcards.com. what's your answer to that question bill? do you really need debt protection? > > in most cases consumers do

not need that kind of protection. they pay quite a hefty fee to be covered, and there are a number of loopholes in that coverage that consumers need to be aware of. > > but, you know, when times are tough -maybe you lost your job, maybe there's a medical expense - that kind of protection might actually prevent a family from falling into bankruptcy. > > that's absolutely true, and that's how credit-card issuers appeal to you buying that kind of payment protection plan. however, it's about 99¢ per month for every $100 you owe. so, if you owe $5,000, they're going to be paying about $49.50 each month to have that kind of protection. and as i said, there are a number of loopholes in that coverage that consumers need to be aware of before they make that purchase decision. > > what was the estimate from the general accounting office as to how profitable this is for credit card companies and how much money people actually get back with such plans?

> > according gao, they did a study that said this entire industry raised $2.4 billion for credit card issuers. that was on 24 million credit card accounts. so, the average credit card cardholder is paying about $100 for that kind of coverage. according to the gao, they said on every dollar spent, consumers were actually getting a benefit of 21¢. > > very quickly bill, give me two or three of the questions somebody should ask themselves first before taking out this kind of debt protection. > > first off, obviously, what is the fee on this kind of protection? what exactly does it cover? is there a waiting period that has to go into effect before you get the coverage? and what kind of cancellation clause is there? if it turns out that this is too expensive for your needs, you might need to cancel. some of these programs are good for certain instances. however, you need to read the terms and conditions of the policy before you make your buying decision.

> > you might need to put on your glasses, but do read the fine print. all right bill hardekopf from lowcards.com, thanks so much. > > thank you, bill. still ahead, home movie-watching is up as theater movie-watching is down. our 2 traders go head- to-head as to which stocks will pop because of that.

time now for traders unplugged, as we bring you two traders ready to go toe-to-toe over hot topics. joining us from the floor of cme group, top traders alan knuckman and jared levy. good morning, guys. round 1: hot air. texas is the nation's leader in wind energy, but with alternative power tax credits possibly coming to an end, which energy company stock would you buy now? > > this is not the end of oil, but the fact that oil has bounced up all the way to $100, you want to look at some other sectors. i think natural gas is still undervalued, and it dropped from $40 all the way down to $14, and right now it's only sitting at $18- the ung. the ung, right. looking at the etf that tracks natural gas, i think it's a more efficient way to play into it, and if it just bounces back half of this downward move, we still have about a 50% rise here. > > as a texan i support natural gas. i will say that i

like chk a little bit better. i like how they move the gas around. i think chk has put a lot of money into that part of their business, and i also agree with alan, you can play with ung. one thing to remember though, you've got that negative roll yield. natural gas does take a while, you could be a little bit away in your profit. so chk would be my pick. > > also look at some coal companies. they've really been beaten down. if you can hold them long-term, you can look at them almost as a- > > round 2: because of the drought a popcorn crisis is possible. if moviegoers stay home because they can't have popcorn or have to pay too much, is this a boon for netflix or amazon? > > go ahead. > > i like amazon here, and i'll tell you why i like amazon. first of all, they just fired off their new fire, their new kindle. i also like amazon because they're creating a

content universe, and here's the deal: movies are changing. you can get brand new movies now by going on your computer and clicking. > > right. you don't have to go to the theater, and the popcorn's really the only reason to go, and the big box of candy. but, if you've looked at the amazon stock, it's up 20% from the 15th of july when this crisis started in the corn market. so it looks like it's already priced in. looking at netflix, it's been killed, absolutely killed, from to $220 down to $50-something. you can sell a $50 put if you want to buy the shares at a lower level because the volatility is high, and use that to buy the stock at a discount. but it can always get more discounted. > > i feel like that stock's broken way too many times. i'd stick with amazon. > > round 3: who is better for job growth? mr. obama or mr. romney? > > to be non-partisan, the budget office has projected that we are going to get 12 million jobs in the next president regardless of who it is. > > and here's the deal: either president has their work cut out for them. one thing i didn't like about some of the statements by our friendly democrats is that they said, you know, "hey, obama's added 4.5 million jobs" - which is great! but you can't forget

about the jobs that are leaving. > > that's the question. did you ask "is romney going to get a bunch of jobs overseas?" or are you talking about america? you've got to be more clear on this. > > it's my- it's always the person's fault that... you know... okay, here you go, ticker time: what company trades under the ticker p e t m - pet'm? > > petmeds. > > petmeds? is that where you buy the flea collars for your dogs on late night tv? > > i do frontline. > > late-night tv? > > it takes care of west nile virus. > > you're very close. it's petsmart. > > i knew it was petsmart. i just thought that... > > pet'm. it's so cute. thanks for being on the show todaalk, > > thank you. can this market go any higher? we'll cover that in chart talk, next.

chart talk is the name of this segment. let's talk with matt shapiro. he runs a little company called mws capital. ok matt, we have the nasdaq at something like a 10-year high, the dow at a five-year high. a lot of people might be thinking, "it can't go any higher than this." what do you say to your clients? > > well, what i tell my clients is that this market has a lot more room to grow because valuations are still compelling, and the alternative - a 10-year treasury at 1.75% - is not going to keep pace with inflation. now, yesterday, we had a big move not only through technicals in the stock market,

but gold had a big move. so, there's a lot of things making this market think it's going to have a finish. at the end of the year it's going to be very very strong, and stronger than people think coming into the election. > > so you don't think just buy into it and get ready to sell within a handful of days. you think long-term investors have opportunities here too? > > yes. there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, bill. for several years people have been pulling money out of mutual funds out of necessity, out of fear of the stock market. there's a lot of money that needs to come into stocks. for instance, blackrock advisers, the largest stock custodian and manager telling people, "you've got to be in stocks, you're going to live a lot longer than you think." and we're going to see a trend of people pushing the valuations up from these historical lows in the stock market. > > cyclicals, talk about that. > > cyclicals have been a tough stock to invest in over the last year. take a look at a stock like ford - just getting back over 10. it was as high as

18 a year-and-a-half ago. so, there's been some pause and hesitation in the economy, and that's really affected the cyclicals. for instance, fedex issued a profit warning last week. so it's been the growth stocks, the defensive big dividend payers, that have done so well. but, with this big move in the market, with gold doing very well, i think economic growth is going to be faster than people thought, and you're going to do well in cyclicals as well bill. > > you have a good trading day matt, thanks. > > thanks a lot. thank you for watching. for all of us at first business, have a great weekend. we'll see you on monday.

we are live in hayward where a driver hits a power pole. we'll tell you how many people are without electricity. a police chase that starts in vallejo ends at this elementary school. we'll tell you why it started. the reason why americans are bracing for violent protests in the middle east. and tomorrow new taxes start for online shoppers but there may be a way around it.

it's all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. thank you for joining us on this friday morning, september 14th i'm pam cook. let's check in with steve paulson for the friday forecast. high steve. >> hello, pam. we have a bigger fog bank and a little stronger sea breeze. some inland locations will still be warm to hot. few high clouds might take aim more toward the north bay. but overall 50s to 90s. we'll have your weekend forecast in seven minutes. here is sal. good morning. we are doing pretty well around the bay area. when it comes to traffic. let's take a look at the pictures. highway 101 san rafael. that looks pretty good as you drive out to the middle of the marin county. also the morning commute looks pretty good on highway 4 westbound coming up to the willow pass grade. 4:29 let's go back to pam. happening now pg&e is working to get the power back