protests erupt anew across europe. how that could be trouble for a government trying to dig itself out of crisis. in today's cover story, why some marquee companies are giving investors a warning sign about the global economy. there are more women entrepreneurs in america. but, as we'll see, they still face barriers. plus, how one veteran is helping other vets turn their military skills into entreprenurial skills. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas.

good morning, i'm bill moller, angie miles is off. here's our first look. boy, builders are bullish. the national association of home builders & wells fargo have a housing index. in the grip of the recession it was 8. last december it broke 20. this week it was up to 40. the nahb says more people are visiting model homes, not as window shoppers, but as buyers. once again american investors, even as they bid up the indexes, are keeping a wary eye on europe. things are far from being resolved there, and the worry is that, with so much unsettled with greece, spain and how much germany can be stretched, the current woes will spin out of control. morgan stanley's chief economist in london describes it this way: we are in a global economic twilight zone. quantitative easing has driven stocks up & up, but economies around the world are losing their fire and still teeter on another recession. let's talk today with our trader, john brady, he's with rj o'brien. john, let me ask you about the gold sell-off. are you worried about that at all? > > the gold sell-off has been

very very modest, so we're not actually worried about it. technically, from the longer- term perspective, fundamentally and technically, gold probably has a little bit of upside. in fact, last year's high of $1,830 an ounce, the yellow shiny metal has been below that level ever since august of last year. however, if gold peaks above $1,800 an ounce, we expect to see a new round of buying come in, as once again fiat currencies globally are called into question. > > what are the overall influences? a lot of people continue to look overseas, and not just europe. > > no, that's right, there's much going on. first of all, we certainly have a lot going on in the geopolitical world. the united states embassy is under siege in the middle east. but more importantly, you have china and japan becoming more and more bellicose with each other regarding some archipelago islands off the coast of japan, so that really bears watching. the financial times, in fact, is running an article as we speak how china may perhaps sell japanese bonds

in order to bring the japanese to their knees as regards those strategic islands. so, there's some geopolitical tension out there, which of course should probably aid gold, at least in the short-term. > > we have our cover story today on fedex. that's a good indicator. it's put out some guidance yesterday that is worrying some people. how do you play that? > > i think that's right. there's a lot of concerns domestically about the fiscal cliff and what that will mean for first- and second-quarter economic growth here. i think fedex, in addition to expressing that concern, also expressed concern that the global economy continues to slow. china and the far east are a major point of distribution and sales for federal express. if you look at things like m2 and the velocity of money within china, those numbers have collapsed recently. so there has to be some concern globally about the velocity of money, the strength of the global economy, and i think fedex has expressed that. > > good information john brady. thanks a lot. > > thank you much. fedex corporation has revised downward its forecast earnings for the fiscal year ending in may of next year. in our cover

story, the world's second largest package delivery company says the global economy is getting worse. and fedex is hardly alone. fedex says demand for expensive priority shipping is faltering globally, causing the memphis- based overnight package delivery service to cut its flights, take planes out of service, and offer buyouts to employees in an effort to cut costs. "europe is just a frustrating market. two and three percent declines. fedex is built on global delivery and hasn't been free of europe's 'disease.'" fedex's express unit operates 660 aircraft, 10 air express hubs, and employs 146,000 employees wordwide, but saw operating income drop 28% this year as more customers chose two- and three-day shipping to save money. fedex isn't the only one saying global sluggishness is costing them. tech giant intel and british retailer burberry say global demand for their products is at its weakest since 2009. in a gloomy global forecast, fedex anticipates u.s. gdp growth of 2.2% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013, and global gdp growth of 2.3% in 2012 and 2.7% in 2013. "the sad reality is that we're looking at europe-style growth.

premium services are hit, and these services aren't what they used to be." however, plenty of goods are still traveling on the high seas. drewry maritime research calculated in july that even with the worsening situation in europe, "we are still forecasting 4.3% global container growth this year." if there is a bright spot in the shipping business, it is in that segment involved with two- and three-day ground shipments. that part of the business is seeing a nine percent increase in operating income this year. the people of greece are telling their government they've given back as much as they can. once again the streets are awash in protests. yet the prime minister has to cut 12 billion euros from the greek budget and spread austerity among public sector workers, many of whom are on strike this week. liz alderman of the new york times tells first business that the level of rage may be growing, a possible sign that greek citizens have reached their limit.

"we have a situation here where a lot of people are living hand to mouth. a lot of people are not able to pay their electricity bills anymore, a lot of people have stopped driving because gas has gotten expensive. basically, people are saying 'where is it going to end?' the prime minister says these will be the last cuts under his watch, but few people believe him." greece is not alone. there are strikes across spain, italy and portugual, as workers tell their governments "no" to more austerity. "the big thing to watch going forward is if social unrest starts to rise more and more, particularly in southern europe, what kind of challenge that is going to pose to these governments going forward." a week from today, greece's 2 largest unions are preparing for a general strike. meanwhile, in the rest of the region, banks are getting bigger, thanks to ecb president mario draghi. draghi infused one trillion euros in three- year loans to banks, which eased the pressure to sell assets at lower prices. european banks promised last year to cut more than 1.2 trillion of bank assets to help them make it through the sovereign debt crisis. instead, the banks increased assets by 7%. the economies of the eu continue to contract. one key measure - auto sales. the european automobile manufacturers' association says the eu's auto market could shrink by as much as 10% this year. all the numbers look negative. the big one, new car registrations, is down 8.9% in august from a year ago, following a 7.8% drop in july. the forecast is worse than what the association predicted in

june. not only is demand dropping, car makers have too much inventory even as some plants are operating at below half capacity. back in the u.s., the ford fusion is forging ahead with its new hybrid next year. the new version has five engine choices and gets 47 miles per gallon in the city and highways. ford has sold over 200,000 fusions in the first eight months of sale. in sales, it goes head-to-head with the toyota camry, honda accord, nissan altima, kia optima, and hyundai sonata.

yesterday we showed you the future that technology holds for commuters. the auto tech front also finds new developments to help older drivers drive easier. a big concern for this group is seeing the road clearly. in coordination with the hartford institute, m.i.t. labs has

developed several new technologies: cars equipped with better headlights and warnings for drivers when they're backing up, changing lanes and checking blind spots. jodi olshevski was involved in the study. she says such enhancements will be featured first in cars most attractive to older drivers. "typically when new technologies come out, we see that they're most often built into the luxury end of these vehicles, which actually works well for the over-50 crowd because they're the ones buying these cars. but over time, we see that these technologies are integrated into the entire fleet of vehicles." olshevski says you should talk with your dealer, who will be the 1st to know when these new technologies roll out. former peregrine financial ceo russell wasendorf sr. pled guilty on monday, accused of mail fraud and lying to customers about investment returns. he also admitted to lying to regulators to cover his tracks. wasendorf will stay in jail while a judge determines if he's a flight risk.

the job market is getting an early christmas present from kohl's. the retailer wants to hire more than 50,000 people. that's about 41 workers per store. these are part-time positions from a few hours to more than 20 hours a week, doing such things as unloading trucks, stocking merchandise, and punching the cash register. kohl's will start hiring this month, and they want all positions filled by mid- november. nearly half of retailers say they also want more full-time workers. amazon is testing ways to bring more of its business to customers more quickly. the company will add more distribution centers this year as part of a bigger plan to create same-day delivery. amazon has reportedly teamed up with 7-eleven stores to test an experimental pickup plan. customers would be able to retrieve amazon purchases the same day from their nearest 7- eleven location. as a

consequence of amazon's physical presence in more states, fewer customers will be able to make tax-free internet purchases. currently, 8 states collect taxes from amazon. by 2016, the added distributuion centers will bring the number up to 14 states that will collect taxes. (strike) still to come, what can vets do to transform their military skills into entrepreneural skills? we'll talk with a u.s. army veteran. but next, a status check on women entrepreneurs. have they reached parity with men? we'll be right back.

in arenas large and small, women are coming on strong. they're ahead of men in getting degrees and in starting businesses. well, if they're still under-represented in the board room, so what? they'll just go out and start their own business. for 26 years, hedy ratner has been on the front lines of helping women entrepreneurs. she's the co- president of the women's business development center. you're putting on a big

entrepreneurial woman's conference in chicago this week. give me the status. a lot of metrics would indicate women have reached parity, but i can't believe that's truly true. > > i wish that were true, but we are not at a level playing field. however, women are growing businesses, are starting businesses, and are successful at business. probably more than 40% of all businesses in this country today are women- owned. but the revenues they generate are far less. > > now the changes though have been dramatic since you started your organization 26 years ago. > > less than 10% of all businesses were women-owned, the age of the women was quite different, and the industries and trades were different. now, women are in every industry and every trade, and young women are looking at business ownership as a vehicle right out of college, because they have ideas and experience and technology, and the use of technology so that they can be successful at business today.

> > if the trend has been such, has it flattened to some degree at this point? > > yes, because of the economy. the challenges are great. we're talking about access to capital, access to contracts, and access to resources, and access to venture capital as well. so yes, it's flattened because of the economy, and because banks are less likely to lend to women- owned businesses and to small businesses generally. so they don't have the resources to grow their businesses as fast, or start their businesses. > > if they're not as willing to loan to women-owned businesses, is it because they're run by women, or because women are in, say, the service sector? > > it's a little bit of both. most women are in the service sector, and they don't have assets, so the banks don't have anything to grab on to. but the other issue is that banks are very risk averse - with good reason - and they're looking at much more of the traditional companies that they're accustomed to working with, like manufacturing. so, women are really kind of left out of

the process. however, our organization is now doing much more direct lending, and the direct lending is helping them to grow and sustain their businesses. > > hedy ratner, you've seen a lot, you've done a lot, and you're still working hard. good to see you and thank you. > > thank you. my pleasure. still ahead, back from the battlefield, how can soldiers adapt their skills to get back into the workforce? a conversation with a vet, next.

american veterans come home from

war to handshakes and congratulations, but what they really need is a steady income. even with retraining programs, their rate of unemployment is about double that of the overall workforce. their challenge - how to turn their battfield skills into workplace skills. "rich soldier - mission financial freedom" is the story of one soldier's experience and insights into how warriors can become entrepreneurs. it was written by chaplain and army reserves captain lee escobar. what's the biggest challenge - i think you probably felt it when you came back from battle - the main challenge veterans face when they return? > > the main challenge is making that transition from what i call the hero-to-zero complex. they start off, they're in uniform, they're being exalted by the society and by america, saying, "you guys are our heroes." but then they come back and they can't even find a job. i really want to propose, and what i'm actually suggesting in

my book is, instead of teaching themjust to have a job, which is just one choice, let's give them the opportunity to become entrepreneurs. give them the opportunity to open up their own businesses and become investors, something that they're not taught to do, so that way they can have the right choices in order to bring more steady income in and to actually have a better sense of independence. > > they're used to taking orders, following orders. but the entrepreneurial spirit is sort of self-directed. you found that a lot of the natural skills that they have in the military translate pretty well to the entrepreneurial world. > > absolutely. in the military, we're taught courage. opening up a business and doing something different than what everyone else would say to do is actually courageous. we're also taught at the same time that we have to learn, we have to be educated. in my book "rich soldier," one thing i really

emphasize is we have to, number one, involve. change from where you're at, know there's a difference, and you don't know what you don't know, so educate yourself on what you don't know after you're involved. then actually put it in practice through execution. > > so the book helps them to educate themselves, yet they would probably still need retraining. > > that's it. that's the reason why we have mentors and people doing more reading and more studying. that's just going to be the first step in their evolution to learning to become entrepreneurs and business owners. > > it's interesting, you told me earlier, this is the only job, being in the military, where you're facing death every day. so their experience is pretty intense, pretty extreme. do they find typically that the entrepreneurial world is liberating? are they comfortable in that kind of an environment? > > absolutely, because what ends up happening is their skills translate better into the business world than they do into the actual workforce. if the military members would just look over their codes that they have, their core values, i should say, and look at the core values, they're really entrepreneur values. if they applied that to businesses, they would soar unbelievably into another state, another place of self-esteem, self-worth and confidence. > > the book is called "rich soldier," it was written by lee escobar. thanks so much, lee. > > thank you very much. a lot of indicators out there to take a measure of the investing landscape. we'll go over key numbers next in chart talk.

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let's talk with dan deming for our segment we call chart talk. he's a market specialist at stutland equities. dan, are you getting some cautious indicators about where the markets might be going in the coming months? > > right now, bill, we're seeing some consolidation off of that high we saw in the s&p 500 last week of 1475. but overall, you'd have to say over the last couple of days, there's been pretty minor consolidation here, a little bit of a pullback across the board. but even yesterday, as we moved toward the close, we saw some buying going on, and if you look at the vix, the volatility index, you saw that kind of trending down now as we see some of this uncertainty over the weekend and some of the political situations that were taking place in the middle east at least kind of getting in and being priced into the market right now. > > is this being supported by what you looked at - you were mentioning the spx index. > > exactly. you're looking at, again, some support here in the spx. a little bit more of a pullback as possible. i have

1438 as a support level in the spx. but overall, you're still seeing all these indexes performing pretty well and breaking out to new highs. you're even seeing the consolidation in the financial sector, where you saw the xlf trade up to 16.5, now trading down to about 16, where it's got some pretty solid support if you look back over the last year. > > when we talked to you last week, you were talking about some good indicators in home- building, and that continues to be true. > > it is right now. we're going to have some more numbers tomorrow. yesterday, we got the national associated home builders' index, which came in at 40, two ticks higher than the previous month, which was 38. so still trending toward that mean level of around 50. you're still seeing a little bit of improvement there as we move through the months and into the end of the year. it will be interesting to see how existing home sales and new home sales come out tomorrow and see if that trend continues. overall though, as i said, like you've seen in some of these other indexes, you saw the ehb pull back over the last couple of days as well, just because it looks like, you know, a lot of these home-builders have gotten out in front of this move, and there's certainly room for them to come back in line a little bit, so you're seeing some of these big names - like i said, over 100% if you look at pulte. > > we also had, i think it was the nasdaq, two back-to-back trading downward days - that hasn't happened for a number of weeks. so what are you right now? somewhat cautious? > > you know, it's like right now i think we've got that initial boost off of the fed, the quantitative easing. of course, you're seeing the fact that europe looks like they're going to continue with their support for the government situations over there. so right now, it's being priced into the market. there's a little bit of a pullback here, but overall, i have to say, over the last couple of days, the action has been fairly positive. > > dan, thanks so much. > > you're welcome. thank you. that's first business for wednesday morning. join us tomorrow. we'll hear if a new film starring clint eastwood will hit it out of the park with audiences. from all of us at first

business, have a great day. . dueling meetings in san jose, we will tell you about two different groups and how they want to address crime. we will tell you about a historic flight over the bay

area later this week, it is all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. good morning, thank you for joining us, i am pam cook, it definitely feels like it is getting cool, hey, steve. >> overnight lows are definitely chilly so if you enjoyed yesterday, you will love today, here is sal. just looking at the traffic map, traffic is doing well let's take a look at a couple of nice pictures. the traffic looks good on highway 4 coming up to the willow pass grade with no maim problems all the way to concord. san mateo and dumbarton, traffic is moving wan