in today's cover story, finally california gets a slight break at the gas pump. what drivers can expect. and, we'll get inside the brainstorming session of politicians who hope to revive the economy. what to watch in the stock market ahead of tonight's vice presidential debates. plus, will oscar buzz surrounding a new movie help put it at the top of the box office heap? and are traders hopping in the costco shopping cart? first business starts now. you're watching first business:

financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's thursday, october 11th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: debate night as vice presidential candidates joe biden and paul ryan square off in primetime. yesteday turned into another downer for the market. alcoa and chevron weighed heavily on the dow. gold ended the session flat and oil dipped by nearly a dollar. and the winter heating outlook is in. following last year's warm winter, some americans will get a sticker shock this year, especially those using heating oil. those bills are projected to rise 20%. lately the hot market has been cooling off. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us. good morning to you. what's your first impression of earnings? > > we've seen a lot of liquidation in the s&p 500 recently. investors are quite concerned about a slowdown in global growth, and also a slowdown in china. we saw alcoa

start to come off here yesterday. there was concern that aluminum prices forecasted going forward would be a little bit lower because of that slowdown in china. > > coming up on friday we have financials in focus with wells fargo and j.p. morgan reporting in. can you see any positioning among traders on those stocks? > > i still think that traders are going to be a little bit more defensive. they're going to start looking at more defensive plays, looking at gold, looking at the u.s. dollar index or also treasuries. they believe that financials should continue a momentum lower, as we've seen over in european banking shares. > > the vice presidents debate tonight. after the presidential debate we saw a move in healthcare stocks. do you think we'll see that again? > > we're probably going to see a lot of healthcare, a lot of educational stocks also start to move around. there's also a lot of concern about some of the defense sectors, because the

romney administration is looking to really boost into that. so you could see a bit of movement in there as well. > > thank you phillip, have a good one. > > thank you. the average price of a gallon of gas nudged lower by a half-cent in california. that may not be much, but after 11 straight days of increases, analysts say it's a start. the spike came when california refineries were winding down production of one blend while a fire and power outages disrupted the supply even more so. as the gasoline supply in california, in which prices jumped to more than $5 a gallon, eased a bit, chevron said its third quarter revenues would be "substantially lower" than predicted. the result of a fire at a chevron refinery; hurricane isaac, which disrupted production in the gulf of mexico; and other reasons - collectively short-term setbacks, according to energy trader phil flynn. "a lot of those situations are going to level out. long-term profitability will increase in the coming months." the situation in california underscores energy supplies in transition. the spike came as gas supplies were shifting from summer to winter blends. but the nation is also in an energy

transition, from coal to natural gas. "demand for coal has been hit because of the cheap price of natural gas. production is so low that prices may even start to rise." but there's still a big debate about how quickly the u.s. may move toward natural gas. cars, trucks - natural gas filling stations? "you've really got to build infrastructure to deliver itto stations. it's wildly expensive."

jason schenker sees oil prices going higher next year with the gap narrowing between west texas intermediate crude - known as wti - and brent blend, from the north sea. he predicts natural gas prices will stay low but begin trending upward in the next couple of years. wear and tear on the new iphone from apple is being called into question. a new type of aluminum is being used to make the iphone 5 thinner and lighter. however, it also can get scratched easier. reports say following complaints, apple ordered suppliers such as foxconn to crack down on production line problems that would lead to scratches during shipments. over the weekend, reports surfaced of protests by factory workers at foxconn over quailty checks, which the company disputed. meanwhile, apple officials blamed users for "holding the phone wrong." a tech analyst has this take on the scratch situation:

"apple's clearly got a manufacturing problem. they are trying to build a very high- quality product using a very low-cost process, and clearly it's not working out very well. and, this is always the risk when you go to these metals with very tight tolerances: they will scratch and you'll have to re-do a batch." the apple company is said to have a wait time of up to 4 weeks for the iphone 5. united is making another run at raising airfare. the airline pumped up prices by $10 per round trip on most flights within the u.s. united reportedly is increasing fares in hopes that other airlines jump on board. airline analysts say this is the 12th attempt this year by airlines to push up ticket prices. it's succeeded four times, but in the rest of the cases, the airlines have had to roll back prices. toyota is in the midst of a massive recall. a faulty power window switch on 2.5 million cars is in need of repair. the problem is linked to several

hundred reports of smoke and fires. the japanese carmaker has recovered from the slow down caused by the tsunami and earthquake, but has yet to catch up to gm in sales. it's been a game of hide and seek between facebook and the sec. that's according to a report by bloomberg, which reports that facebook was "hesitant" to disclose certain information to investors prior to going public. the sec reportedly asked facebook management if investors had up- to-date and correct information prior to its ipo due to discrepancies found in facebook's own reports. now bloomberg is saying investors did not see reports highlighting business challenges until after the company went public. it's a good time to be on the hunt for a teaching job. recently, teacher hiring has been on the rise. the bureau of labor statistics says from july to september, schools added the most teaching positions since 2006. this is due in part to higher tax revenues collected by state governments. however, whether the hiring boom is

temporary may depend on factors like the fiscal cliff and the election. disturbing accounts of animal abuse are coming from an idaho dairy farm. undercover video at the bettencourt dairy farm in hansen, idaho, shows three men beating cows in milking stalls. animal cruelty charges have been filed against the three workers. it is the largest dairy operation in the state. the owner of the dairy farm said he was sick over the video and that the operation does not tolerate animal abuse. on a lighter note, the price of candy for cows is up. the practice of feeding cattle a sugary mix of cookies, candy bars and other delights has been going on for years, sometimes to improve milk production. this year, as more farmers substitute "candy" for "corn," the price of the sugary feed is rising. a livestock nutritionist tells us it is not harmful for the animals. farmers have a 3% limit on goodies they can feed cows. it is a "smashing" season for pumpkins. this fall's pumpkin crop is one of the few that is thriving right now. many crops like corn and soybeans were

scorched due to the summer drought. however, because of pumpkins' ability to survive and thrive in dry weather, the drought will actually contribute to a decent pumpkin crop for the fall season. walmart is warming up for christmas. the retail giant claims to have strategy and momentum heading into the holiday season. the walmart game plan includes: accelerating the opening of small neighborhood stores and using social media to drive sales. also, the retailer bought deep on hot holiday items such as apple ipads and furby. meanwhile, some walmart employees recently protested over sudden cuts in their working hours. walmart shares hit an all-time high of $76.81 during trading yesterday. macy's is offering shoppers an experience in 'toyland' this shopping season. the department store will team with toys 'r' us to add toy departments in 24 macy's locations. toy departments will open as soon as next week and close up shop mid- january. both companies said that the "store within a

store" concept could be expanded. nieman marcus is good to go with its christmas wish book for high-end shoppers. making it into the book this year, this 2012 ferarri, which sells for $395,000 and a special edition speed boat for a quarter of a million dollars. on the lower end, there is a tennis table for 45 grand. still to come, liam neeson proves lightining can strike twice at the box office with his latest hit. that's later. but first, how some political power players are hoping to fix the u.s. economy. paul eggers has that next.

ñçbñ [gentle acoustic guitar musi (male announcer) how far would you go to help someone? would you go to the end of your driveway? would you cross a street? would you cross an ocean? to a place 6,000 miles from home? and how long would you go?

would you go for a week? a month? a year? would you go for two years? would you go if you could use your knowledge to teach someone... and, in the process, maybe learn something yourself? life is calling. how far will you go? peace corps. fedex is reshuffling its deck. the company said yesterday it will cut jobs and downsize its fleet in order to boost its profits. fedex will trim the majority of costs from its express and service units. since the global economic slowdown, fedex is a bellweather that has remained a concern for investors. they got behind fedex's strategy yesterday: the stock jumped following the news and ended the day at 89 dollars. the economy continues to be the main focus for politicians leading up to election day, so it's no surprise this year's chicago ideas week is taking a

political bent. paul eggers was there. it seems like almost everyone has a way to fix america's sluggish economy. "keep it local. if you keep your money local, everyone benefits." "public works. we have to get people working any way we can." "i think we have to change our tax structure. the rich need to pay a little bit more." chicago ideas week brought thought leaders together to address the issue. austan goolsbee seved in the obama administration as the chairman of the council of economic advisors, and he offered the manufacturing sector as a potential fix. 'we're going to have to export more manufacturing, shift the focus of the economy, and that's going to take a long time. it's going to cost money. we're going to have to retrain our workers." advancing that idea focuses on the nation's education system, training the students of today for the hi-tech jobs of tomorrow. 83% of manufacturing firms reported a shortage of skilled technicians, leaving industry executives like ron

bullock of bison gear and engineering corporation highlighting job opportunities in his industry. 'we've had 600,000 unfilled positions on an on-going basis through the national association of manufacturers jobs board.' stressing the value of an education that leads to employment was central to the presentation of economist garret jones, who served as an advisor to republican senator orrin hatch of utah. 'one thing we can have is an education system that actually builds skills workers can use. so moving in the direction of internships and apprenticeships is really the best thing we can do.' bill daley, a veteran of both the clinton and obama administrations, agreed. 'that's the paramount thing we should have as the focus of people. yes, thinking for thinking's sake is good, but when you're trying to put together an education system, what's the end result? a better

society, a more productive society.' in addition to their own ideas, the speakers also shared some insights on grading the ideas of political candidates. 'what should a voter consider when looking at ideas to fix the economy, what's most important? 'what's realistic to get accomplished. not what the philosophy is, but what can actually get done to implement that philosophy. 'any presidential candidate out there that says we should fire bernanke and follow tighter monetary policy, that's probably pretty bad news for the economy. there is no shortage of ideas when it comes to ways to fix the economy. as for those that will work best, voters will decide that on november 6. reporting outside chicago ideas week, i'm paul eggers, first business news. ideas week started last year in chicago as a non-profit by the same guys who started up groupon. still ahead, could hollywood's highest honor be in the cards for ben affleck? see what our critic has to say next.

audiences were "taken" with the new film starring liam neeson - i bet you haven't heard that one yet. our movie critic erik childress is here with the numbers behind the blockbuster hit. good morning. > > good morning. > > nearly $50 million at the box office over the weekend. it's been a while since we've had one of those "oomph" kind of weekend openings. > > yeah. we really haven't had anything really big since"the dark knight rises." september was a very weak month, we were

talking about that a few weeks ago. last week "hotel transylvania" broke all the september 3-day weekends. and this weekend, second week in a row, "taken 2" almost did it for october. it's the third highest october weekend ever. > > critics have been panning this film though. what do you think? > > it's kind of awesomely ridiculous. > > that's what they say. i think it's going to be interesting to see how it performs in weekend two. > > i think the movie is going to have quite a huge dropoff. the first one, "taken"- > > so good. so good. > > it was a great movie- > > it played on tv. > > cable has been very successful, and it was a big word-of-mouth hit at the box office. only opened to half of what the sequel did, but went on to do $145 million. i don't think it's going to do that much, even though foreign-wise it's almost broken what the first one made at the box office foreign-wise. so i think this movie is still going to be in the profit. fox has no problems with that. but, it is

not going to make the $145 million. > > they were advertising it in paris when i was there recently. let's take a look at the weekend numbers from last weekend. as we mentioned, "taken" at nearly $50 million. "hotel transylvania" at $27 million, "pitch perfect" made it into the top five- > > we talked about that. > > "looper" and "frankenweenie" coming in at $11 million. > > big disappointment for "frankenweenie." very upset with that. > > coming up this weekend, "argo." this film has huge buzz. will it live up to the hype? > > it's going to live up to the hype. certainly with critics, who have been praising this thing to the hilt for more than a few weeks now. it played toronto. it's going to be a major oscar player this year. watch out for that. it's going to be a major best picture. affleck's going to be nominated for director. and i think audiences are really going to like this movie too. it's a funny film, it's very suspenseful, it's a true story. it's a very tight film. it only comes in around two hours, so a lot of people are going to go to it. i believe it's going to take number 1 at the box office this weekend. > > here is what else is playing: "atlas shrugged," "here comes the boom," "7 psychopaths," and "sinister." > > "7 psychopaths" is a lot of fun. it's not opening in as many theaters as "argo" and some of these others, so look for that, that's a really fun movie to go to. > > and i saw "arbitrage," and i loved it. i wanted it to go on.

it's a very good film. > > it's a good movie. > > probably won't win any big awards, but boy is it entertaining. > > i think you might be surprised. it's going to get some conversation, i think, with the awards. gere, susan sarandon in particular for supporting actress might be in there. it's worth noting that this film has only opened on something like 250 screens, and it's the second highest grossing film in that sort of range after "the intouchables," released by the weinsteins. so $6 million, it's a very good total for a film like that. > > good to have you here. erik childress. > > thank you. just ahead, costco investors are cashing in on the recent rise in the stock. find out what the charts say about the retailer right around the corner.

we're taking a closer look at the retail sector this morning

with matt cavanaugh of cmz trading. good morning matt. > > good morning. > > yesterday on the down day that we had, costco and wal- mart hit new highs. what do you think about costco stock? is there more room to run? > > well, when i take a look at costco stock, i think it's a great company, but i think it's really priced for perfection here. they really did blow their earnings out: $1.39 a share versus $1.31 expected. they had really nice earnings, but i look at this stock and i say, "hey, new highs, it's pretty expensive..." i think it's probably reached its top, at least in the near-term. > > what does that say to you as a trader when you see a couple of big retail names like we saw going higher - as i mentioned, on down days - does that mean anything at all? > > well, i think that it tells you a few things: number one, people are still having to invest, and they're looking for safe places to put their money. you see this turmoil all over the world, you hear things about europe, you hear things

about a slowdown in china, and here you have these really great businesses, these staple businesses that are solid, that are dependable, and people are going to have to buy toilet paper and toothpaste and all those kinds of things. so, when they see good things out of these types of companies they will rush in and put their money there for a little bit of safety. > > and i'm going to throw you a curve ball on this one: alcoa sold off yesterday. is this a stock that you would buy today? > > you know what, it's a stock that we've talked about. it's been up, it's been down. we've actually called it correctly a few times. i think that the jury is still out on alcoa. i'm going to wait a little bit. i do like the price of it, i do like it as kind of a dollar hedge if you will, but i'm going to wait here. their numbers are going in the wrong direction, and i think we've got time to sit on the sidelines. > > i was asking you because that was coming from one of our viewers, so thank you so much. that's matt cavanaugh of cmz trading. > > thanks. that's a wrap for today. coming up tomorrow, it's traders unplugged. our traders go rogue on the latest round of earnings and debate whether bank of america is a buy. thanks so much for watching, and have a good thursday.

. new information in the kidnapping of mckayla, kidnapped many years ago. why her mother may finally get some answers. and a big challenge facing

both the as and the giants. it is all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. good morning, thank you for waking up with us this thursday october 11th, i am pam cook, what are we in store for, for today? >> we are in store for a lot of low clouds, in fact this may be the coolest day between now and the middle of next week. some of those higher clouds are and coming around that area of high pressure and there could be a few isolated showers. 60s for many and here is sal. traffic is doing well around the bay area, there is road work, lower deck on the bay bridge, golden gate bridge