today's investment ideas. good morning. it's friday, october 19th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: the google gaffe. google's earnings leaked out early yesterday, sending shares spiraling down during the session. the earnings were due after the close. then another stunner - google fell far short of wall street expectations. it's a miss from microsoft. earnings fell shy of estimates as sales slipped. checking the gas gauge, prices at the pump are finally falling. a gallon of unleaded is $3.73, down from $3.81 a week ago. a new record in mortgage rates: the 15-year dropped to a record low 2.66%. the 30-year is at 3.37%. and gm is hiring 3,000 workers from hewlett packard as it revs up its i.t. services. scott bauer of trading advantage joins us now from cme group. we have a lot to get to today. first of all, a lot of

people are concerned about this so-called black monday. as you know, sometimes there are goblins in this market during the month of october. do you think there is a crash coming our way? > > nope. > > i like that answer. > > very assertive on it. the reason being is really one thing: look at the volatility index, look at the vix. even yesterday, with the massive sell-off in the middle of the day of google, the vix barely changed. we are still trending down toward really almost its all-time lows. so anybody can go out there and just buy cheap protection in this marketplace. if there was something really imminent, really impending, we would see that number climbing up a lot faster, angie. > > let's talk about google. where do you go from here as a trader with google after what happened yesterday, that stock falling more than 8%? > > i wish i could be as assertive with this answer. we're really in no man's land

right here. when i say no man's land, $700-ish is dead center, really dead center, of a support, big support, and big resistance areas. so, i think it's very vulnerable right now toward market sentiment. i think that now that earnings are out, the projections are out, all the information is out, it's very vulnerable now based on the rest of the market. i don't think google in the short run trades just on what google fundamentals are. i think it trades with the rest of the market. if we see technology continue to slide, google probably slides with it. if technology just flattens out a little bit, and the rest of the market still continues to outpace, i bet google probably goes up a bit. but it's really, like i said, i wish i had a better answer. we are right in the middle of no man's land. > > do you think there was a lot of overreaction to the move yesterday in the market? because this is rare for a company to come out early and miss like that. > > it was very weird. it was odd because if they had come out after the market like they always do, like they should have

been, i would have felt we would have seen a much bigger drop in the stock due to the lack of liquidity. so the fact that it was "leaked" out i think really helped keep some sort of support in the stock. now, it's an imaginary support line, and again, that $700 number doesn't really mean a whole lot, other than that it's a whole number. so it's really, i think, very, very vulnerable - like i said before - and probably is going to trade with market sentiment over the short run. > > good to have you on the show this morning. that's scott bauer of trading advantage. in our cover story, some call it big brother - video cameras watching over you while at work. but it's producing safer food products from the beef industry and better hygiene among healthcare professionals who sometimes forget the basics, such as washing hands after treating patients. the company that makes camera systems that watch over you says they're also watching out for you in terms of consumer protection. that's according to adam aronson, whose company, arrowsight, watches by remote camera half of the beef industry and meat processors such as osi. "if osi can improve productivity by 10%, there's opportunities for other industries like this." it took the largest meat recall in history in 2008 to bring cameras into meat packing to the extent that exists today. in three years, arrowsight went from having cameras in one meat packing facility to 30 of them - not to mention other manufacturers and fast-food

restaurants. "it sounds big brother-ish. that's usually the first comment we hear, and it's the right question. we're trying to get people to do a better job." aronson admits management requests cameras, not workers. but when it comes to improving efficiency, faster is not always better. half the time, a manufacturing line's speed is slowed down to improve quality control. in hospitals such as north shore university hospital on new york's long island, cameras monitor how often healthcare workers wash their hands. "they were really washing their hands less than 10% of the time." aronson says within a matter of weeks, hand hygiene - key to preventing the spread of

infection in hospitals - improved 80% and stayed that high during a year-and-a-half of periodic checks. as far as employee representation, he says no union has blocked arrowsight from installing cameras to monitor employees. it's deja vu for the more than one hundred thousand workers at hmx - better known as hartmarx and the maker of president obama's favorite suits. the company is facing its second bankruptcy in four years and a possible liquidation. union workers are vowing to not go down without a fight. "if necessary we'll occupy the plants. we said that we would do that 3 years ago if anybody attempted to buy the company and liquidate the manufacturing facilities." the ceo of hmx group, doug williams, tells first business the company is committed to remaining in america, saying, "it's the intent of the company and management to do everying possible to retain its u.s. workers and factories." williams went on to praise workers and says hmx has a great relationship with the union. according to reports, several buyers are interested in acquiring the company, but

the union is quick to assert that any buyer who only purchases the iconic name and sends the actual manufacturing overseas will face a global boycott. strong economic data out of china could provide some opportunity for investors. china's gdp rose to 7.4% in the third quarter, reducing concerns of futher slowdowns in the world's second largest economy. trader mark sebastian of option pit mentoring tells first business china's data is sending postive signals to investors. "as long as china has a soft landing and europe and north america continue to get their footing back together that is not such a terrible thing. yes, maybe china is flattening out, but if china's slowdown is flattening out, that is really bullish for the world economy." as sebastian notes, the euro crisis continues to threaten the markets. last week the imf warned that markets remain "fragile." thousands of protesters are back

on the streets in greece. cab drivers, doctors, teachers and air traffic controllers are said to be among those rallying against the next round of wage and spending cuts by the government. greek officials are required to reduce the budget by $17 billion in exchange for $31 billion in bailout money. without it, greece will run out of funds next month. the strike is happening as european leaders meet in brussels to decide how to proceed with greece as well as ensure there's not a repeat of the european debt crisis. the keystone pipeline will remain shut down for the next couple of days. the pipeline carrying oil from canada to the gulf coast is a major source of crude to refineries in the midwest and southwest. transcanada, which owns keystone pipeline, discovered what the company calls a "small anomaly" during routine testing, but says there are no spills or leaks. the fbi continues to investigate a terror threat at the new york fed.. (broll - you tube from yesterday) earlier this week a man from bangladeshi was arrested under

accusations of plans to bomb the new york federal reserve. (broll pres obama/ new york stock exchange) reports from the ap say the man also had targeted president obama and the new york stock exchange. the sec is receiving hundreds of whistleblower tips. about a year ago, the sec set up a whistleblower office. under the dodd-frank act, people who provide useful information on finance-related crimes receive between 10 and 30% of the fines and penalties the government collects. nearly 3,000 tips in the u.s. and abroad have been called in during the past year. in corporate earnings news, revenue reached $19 billion at verizon with a surge in iphone activiations. however, the company did mention supply constraints of the iphone 5. revenue rose to $7.6 billion at morgan stanely, with heavy gains made in bond trading. railroad company union pacific's profits jumped 15% to $1 billion, despite a 12% decline in coal volumes. but at phillip morris, revenue fell 5% to $7.9 billion as the company sold fewer cigarettes.

an upcoming vote over food labeling in california has corporations shelling out big bucks. the golden state will vote on proposition 37 november 6th. the legislation determines whether food should carry a special label if it's genetically modified. according to the california "right-to- know campaign," food corporations are spending nearly a million dollars per day on advertising against the initiative. reports say support for the labels has dropped from 70% to under 50% in a matter of weeks. the class of 2011 is saddled with record debt in student loans. a new study by the institute for college access and success reports the average students owes $26,600, a 5% jump from 2010. student debt nationwide recently topped $1 trillion. while some question whether the price of a college eduction is worth it, studies show unemployment for young people without a college degree

is twice as high and that college grads earn more. it's not good-bye, it's just "see you online." that's the case at newsweek, which announced this week it will move to an online-only format. the magazine will stop publishing its printed publication at the end of the year. newsweek's editor-in-chief said the industry is "increasingly affected by the challenging print advertising enviornment." the final print edition of newsweek will be released december 31st. still to come, lobster prices are on the minds of our traders in today's traders unplugged. but first, some consumer demographics are feeling ignored by advertisers. that's next with bill moller.

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advertisers are always trying to reach the biggest & broadest segment of us, the population. one important demographic - african americans. but the findings of a new study show that advertisers are missing the potential of that important consumer market. the study was conducted by the global information and measurement company nielsen and the national newspaper publishers association. it's called "african-american consumers: still vital, still growing." the findings lead me to ask this question: if the african american consumer is being under-served, under-recognized and under-valued?let me put that question to cheryl pearson-mcneil, senior vice-

president at nielsen. what do you say to that? > > i think that not enough companies are recognizing the value of the black consumer, and we wanted to make sure that there was a document that explained their value. and that's one of the reasons we put together the report. > > what do the numbers show then? > > the numbers show that there are 43 million african- americans right here in the united states. if you took a look at other populations of other countries, you would find that out of 195 countries, the black population is bigger than 163 countries, including canada and argentina. so definitely we have a lot of consumers here, and the power that they bring to the table needs to be recognized. > > and it is growing. what was the figure i saw? by 2015 it will be over a trillion dollars? > > by 2015 the buying power will be 1.1 trillion dollars. > > and yet there is this disparity in how advertising dollars are being spent to reach or to kind of ignore that market.

> > i think one of the things that advertisers mistakenly think is that because there are no language barriers like you have with the asian community or the hispanic community, that blacks can be reached simply through general market advertising efforts, and that's simply not the case. what you see is, last year, in 2011, there was $120 billion spent on advertising with general marketers and advertisers. only $2.1 billion was spent with african-american media. so that's a little under 2% of all advertising spent targeting african-american media. yet 91% of black consumers say that they would really like to have more ads featuring their products and services, and that they think black media is relevant to them. > > i think this is probably, if it's taken seriously, going to dramatically change how those advertising dollars are spent. because you have so many different kinds of newspapers, other publications, magazines - and radio and television too - that probably are dying for those dollars. > > we hope so. we hope that the advertisers who are doing it right, like png and l'oreal and mcdonald's and verizon, who are in the top five advertisers who are actually advertising

using black media, that they'll do more of it. but we also hope that other companies will take the lead and understand you're leaving dollars on the table when you're not advertising using african-american media. > > was this study taken - briefly - was it taken because it was suspected that this was the case, or pretty well known that it was the case? > > it's a report. neilson has all types of data and information and insights. what we wanted to do was make sure that it was in one place on african-american consumers, so that advertisers had one source that they could go to for information. > > cheryl pearson-mcneil. thank you so much. > > thanks for having us. thank you bill. still ahead, traders take on how to make money in the housing rebound, next.

time now for traders unplugged. seasoned traders alan knuckman and jared levy are charged up and ready to let loose with their views this morning. good

morning guys. > > good morning angie. > > round 1: housing flip. big institutional investors are buying houses in bulk. how do retail traders make money on the housing rebound? > > it's too late! no, i'm just kidding. but i'll tell you this: if you look at multi- family, that's been the big driver of this housing boom. new home sales, a lot of that new home sales number has been comprised of big housing, and i'll tell you what- > > home builders- > > hold on. can i finish? can i finish? > > homebuilders are up 112% for the year. > > here is the point. rent rates. rent rates have driven a lot of this multi-family rental housing. that's where a lot of the big bulk has gone. you have a point angie. a lot of the good deals are not there. > > the point of this segment is that big financial institutions are buying in bulk. they spent $68 billion to buy repos and foreclosures in bulk- > > they have spent. they have spent. > > buying or spending? > > they have spent already. > > all right, so anyway, they are spending that money, but the individual investor is not

getting a chance at this housing market because they can't get loans and it's not easy for them. > > round 2: debt deal. with interest rates at all-time lows, the ratio of interest payments to gdp is near the all- time low. what gives? > > so jared doesn't want to discuss that, but the point is that interest rates are at all- time lows. when do you borrow money? when interest rates are at all-time lows. that is the time. because right now, treasuries are paying out less than the rate of inflation- > > so you're saying the printing presses, keep them going. > > if you're going to borrow money, this is the time, not when interest rates are at 6%. i don't know, you do the math. > > here's the problem, right? when that debt comes due and they have to re-up- > > in 30 years? > > hold on a sec. if they have to re-up on the 10-years, they still have a lot of those they have to swap debt for, they're going to have to re-do at a higher rate. so the bottom line is, yeah, for now it probably makes sense to borrow. but just not excessively. > > the gdp- > > alan and i differ in our opinions of what the government should be doing. i do not believe that we should be printing money freely and buying our own debts. > > ... is lower than germany, lower than britain, and it's had a high of 109% in 1946. we're not even anywhere close to that. we're at 68% right now. > > round 3: got lobster? lobster prices were at 30-year

lows. the maine lobster council now is spending $3 million on ads. will that get you to buy cheap crustacean? > > the market needs to determine prices. as a free-market person, the markets can determine the price. there was a warm spring this year, that's why there are so many lobsters. they have restricted fishing in past years, so that's what caused this. it's a bumper crop- > > so the lesson learned is to go out and have some lobster. > > this actually creates jobs, because more restaurants can put lobster on their menu, get people in, because it's so much cheaper than it has been in years past. > > how about the 48 million on food stamps? they're gonna go buy lobster? > > a look at this right now: the wholesale price of lobster is $2 versus $4 last year. where i come from, that's half off. lobsters are half off. > > bonus round time: what company trades under the ticker symbol m-o-o? > > it's not a company, it's an etf. > > oh, you got it! good job. the van eck agri. thank you so much for being on the show. > > thanks angie. there's more to come from the trading floor. up next, a look at boeing, caterpillar and facebook ahead of earnings next week. chart talk is coming up.

major earnings will continue to pour in next week. trader tim biggam with tradingblock is here to keep us ahead of the curve. good morning tim. > > good morning angie. > > talk about caterpillar. earnings are coming up on monday. is this stock a buy ahead of earnings or would you wait and see? > > i would probably be a little bit neutral here. certainly cat has had a bounce off that kind of $82.50 low level, hovering slightly above that, about 4 or 5% above that. so, i would be a buyer toward that $80 level. i think the slowdown in china will kind of mitigate any big upside here, and certainly just general slowing in the economy. but caterpillar is certainly

trending at a decent valuation, so i like it, albeit at slightly lower levels. > > what are your thoughts on boeing, which also comes out with earnings next week? > > really almost the same kind of story there with boeing as well. certainly the recent rally we've seen in most stocks across the board is giving me a little bit of cause to be aggressive up here. i like boeing, again, probably about 2 or 3% lower than here. decent p/e yield on both these stocks, and decent valuations, but probably a little ahead of the game in my opinion at these levels. > > let's amp it up a bit then. facebook comes out with earnings next week. is this stock a buy, leave it alone? i know the options vol is through the roof already. > > absolutely. i think from an options standpoint i would be a seller of out-of-the-money puts probably around that $16 strike price. some pretty rich premiums out there. so i would be a willing buyer of facebook

certainly anywhere below $16, but at the levels it's trading at, that $20 level seems to be kind of a sticking point, but i'd be a buyer on a dip and i think using an option to position to be a buyer at about a 15% pullback from here would probably be my play. > > you're right, there seems to be some sort of floor on facebook of around $18 so far anyway. but $16 is where you're comfortable, correct? > > i always like to be a little less risky than most, so i'm willing to give up some of the upside to be a little bit safer. but yeah, anywhere below $16 i think i would be comfortable owning the shares. > > thanks tim. have a good friday. > > you too. thank you angie. that puts a wrap on this week. coming up next week, good morning. we are following developing news from san francisco where shots were fired at police officers. right now dozens of people are camping out on the san jose state campus. the change they are hoping to bring to that city's minimum wage. the big bridge closure set to get under way tonight could

effect your weekend plans. it's all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. good morning. thank you for joining us on this friday morning october 19th i'm pam cook. windy. very windy. steve, how is the weather forecast? >> cool down, pam. in fact coast yesterday was warmer than some inland areas. even all the way out to sacramento. that will not be the case today. the fog has come roaring back. temperatures on their way down. we will see 60s and mainly 70s. here is sal. steve, good morning. we are doing pretty well. road work has been picked up. let's take a look at the commute on highway 4. it looks pretty good so far coming up to the willow pass grade. and this morning if you are driving on the san mateo bridge it looks good. of course we will have closures

there. now let's go back to the desk. we begin with developing news from san francisco. just a few hours ago someone shot at police officers in the western edition. this is after a traffic stop. ktvu alex savidge is there at the scene to tell us the story. alex. >> reporter: san francisco police officers were shot at this morning as they tried to stop a car. luckily no officers were hit. we'll show you the scene behind us. this is where the short pursuit came to a crashing end. the car police were after the cadillac ran this red light here. it was hit by a taxicab. the two people in that car got out and then ran off. police were able to track down one of the people. the second person still outstanding at this point. san francisco police are telling us this morning and a sergeant told us this all began when services tried to make a traffic stop on a car a few blocks away but that car with two men inside drove off and refused to stop