at&t u-verse high speed internet. now on our newly expanded advanced digital network, a connection your whole house can count on. ♪ profits for traders who play it right. in today's cover story, some investors are losing confidence in microsoft. what you need to know before you sell the stock. an electric car company shocks the auto industry. way sales could suddenly rocket. and does cisco systems have the power to spark a rally today? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's wednesday, november 14th. i'm angela miles.

the market is still hanging in the balance. yesterday there was a modest sell-off in stocks and commodities. wall street appears to be using caution while lawmakers in washington prepare to face off over the fiscal cliff. zynga's cfo is exiting the social gaming company for a senior level position at facebook. zynga is shaking up the management ranks and is backing its 2012 outlook. petitions to save thanksgiving from black friday shopping are popping up on the internet. employees and their families are among the first to sign on. and aaa predicts the number of americans hitting the road to head home for the holidays will rise slightly this season to 43.6 million. todd horwitz of the adam mesh trading group joins us. how are trading volumes going with so much talk about this fiscal cliff? and are traders finally tired of those two words? > > good morning, and yeah, we are tired of those words. look:

the bottom line is this: the market is actually telling you - although the market was down yesterday - it rallied and then broke down - the market itself is telling you that the fiscal cliff is really not that big of an issue here, because we are still up 100% from '09 lows, and we're still up 12% for the year. so all we're looking at is we know that the parties are going to come together arm-in- arm and ride in on their white horse and say, "see, we saved you again. we're going to kick the can down the road and we're going to go ahead and allow these things to go on, and we're not going to worry about it. we're going to wait for another six months to figure out the problem." so right now, the fiscal cliff is just noise that's being put out there. > > i would like to get your take on cisco systems. that could make some news and noise today. after the close last night, the stock rallied off of its earnings report. > > you know, the earnings were great, and the earnings were

expected to be good. the stock itself had been pummeled for the last three months down into the low $16s. we kept downgrading numbers on what they were expecting until finally we got the number out, and they beat the street by 2¢. the stock is rallying. it looks to be good. now the question is whether it will hold. the whole tech sector is kind of in its own little bear market right now. while nobody has been paying attention, the nasdaq itself has been down the last five weeks in a row. while nobody is paying attention, apple is down 23% from its high. so, for cisco that's good news. this could help propel a rally. but the markets still look to be a little weak here, so i wouldn't get real excited, but i am excited for cisco. > > we'll see how those traders digest the news all day. good to have you on the show. have a great day. > > thank you. pressure is building from corporate america for congress to reach a consensus before the country falls off the so-called fiscal cliff. president obama is holding nearly a week's worth of discussions with activists and business leaders from across the country. labor leaders who spent time at the white house tuesday say the president remains committed to tax breaks for the middle class and higher taxes for the wealthy. also yesterday, tech executives from dell, intel, ibm and more

warned congress and the president failing to take action is "unacceptable." today he meets with the ceos of ge, walmart and other corporations. david siegel, the ceo who told his employees that some of them would face layoffs if president obama was re-elected, instead handed out 5% raises. his company, westgate resorts, enjoyed record profits this year and he says he wanted to share the wealth. not exactly upbeat about t t t ture, siegel says his employees will need those raises to deal with the impending higer costs he believes everyone will have to dure under an obama administration. a tasty piece of americana may be in jeopardy. hostess brands, the maker of wonder bread, twinkies and ding dongs, is warning that it may be forced to liquidate if union employees continue with a crippling strike. hostess has already announced the permanent closing of three bakeries as a result of the nationwide strike by 30% of its workforce that started last week. workers are protesting wage and pension cuts.

the world's largest operator of bowling alleys strikes out. amf bowling worldwide filed for bankruptcy after failing to find a buyer for its 262 bowling centers. this will be its second trip through bankruptcy since the 1990s. the company, which employs 7,000 people, has struggled with both a heavy debt load and a decline in the sport. united and continental pilots' union leaders say the tentative new contract means the end of bankruptcy era concessions. rank and file members will vote to accept or reject the deal in the next few weeks. if pilots do ratify the new contract, it will pave the way for assimilating flight crews and be one of the last steps in the 2010 merger and subsequent integration of the two airlines. federal investigators have uncovered $1.5 billion in medicare fraud. the inspector general of the department of health and human services says 25% of all medicare claims from nursing homes had errors or overcharges. medicare officials are agreeing to pay closer

attention to fradulent billing. the departure of windows president steven sinofsky from microsoft appears less about the new operating system or tablet he oversaw - although the company has been conspicuously quiet about sales - and more about a company moving from one business model to another. in our cover story, it might not seem a hard landing - unless you're perceived as a rival for ceo with the person who currently holds that job. steven sinofsky, a 23-year veteran of microsoft, left abruptly, two weeks after the debut of the operating system and tablet he guided to their launch under ceo steve ballmer. "sinofsky really carved out a powerful empire, and instead of ballmer's heir apparent, he was perceived as ballmer's rival." analysts call sinofsky's departure "a negative," that he "rescued windows following vista." if there was acrimony, sinfosky didn't hint at it, saying his departure "was a personal and private choice that in no way reflects any

speculation or theories one might read - about me, opportunity, the company, or its leadership." but sinofsky is the last of five operating unit heads ballmer's replaced in the last five years. "what ballmer is doing is trying to create an organization that's more apple-like under steve jobs." in a statement, ballmer called it "imperative that we continue to drive allignment across all microsoft teams and have more integrated and rapid development systems for our offerings." observers see microsoft in transition increasing control over its products. "microsoft is building against an apple model that produces everything - the 'surface' tablet is an example of that and i think you'll see them producing more hardware going forward." sinofsky is now replaced by the lead engineer on windows seven, julie larsen-green and cfo tami

reller. microsoft shares fell 3% tuesday, closing at $27. a struggling railcar stock is getting a jumpstart from activist investor carl icahn. shares of greenbrier rallied more than 20% in trading yesterday. the stock was down 43% for the year. icahn, often refered to as a corporate raider, picked up 2.7 million shares of greenbrier for a 9.99% stake in the company. icahn calls greenbrier stock "undervalued." the company has been profiting on demand for new rail cars. an encouraging sign for home depot and the housing market. the world's largest home improvement chain not only beat analysts' quarterly earnings estimates, it also raised its full-year economic outlook. improvements in the housing sector are translating into an uptick in the need for building contractors and supplies, which is giving the retailer a boost. additionally, the damage done by hurricane sandy will also likely benefit the chain as east coasters start to rebuild.

retailers in los angeles will no longer be allowed to sell commercially bred dogs, cats and rabbits. l.a. is the largest city in the nation to enact such a measure. and from now on, such animals sold at pet stores will come from shelters or rescue groups. an electric moment for the winner of motor trend magazine's car-of-the-year: the tesla model s sedan is the winner for 2013 and it wasn't even close - it was a unanimous decision by the magazine's panel of 11 judges, who drove more than two dozen contenders. it marks the first time ever in the 64-year history of the award that a vehicle not powered by an internal combustion engine has been selected. "tesla will definitely get a boost from getting awards. what it does is reassure investors, and they need the investment, they need the up-front money. it's expensive to start a company, much less a company from scratch." the car, from tesla motors, which is based in palo alto, california, seats up to seven passengers and in government- certified tests can travel 265

miles on a single charge. straight ahead, whether you are at the head of your company or working your way up from the bottom, tips on how to stay on top of your game are coming up with bill moller. then later in the show, how some traders hope to make money on the fiscal cliff. if you are worried about your money, don't miss this! we will be right back.

the merger of globalization and information technology has transformed how companies must now compete. old jobs and ways of doing business are obsolete. when you're fighting competitors across the globe for market share a company and its employees, have to be agile, nimble and work harder than ever. best-selling author jason

jennings has been heralded by usa today as 1 of the 3 most in-demand business speakers in the world. he has new book, "the reinventors: how extraordinary companies pursue radical continuous change." adapt, grow, change - or perish? is it that stark? > > is that stark. if you take a look at the list of the original fortune 100 companies - you may find it surprising - only 2 are left. these are the companies who had the capital, they had the people, they had all the resources, and they couldn't survive. absolutely could not. and it's happening at increasingly warp speed. take a look at blackberry, research in motion - two years ago were at $77 billion. today their market capitalization is $5 billion. what happened? they are fast becoming irrelevant. look at circuit city. irrelevant. a few years ago, one out of every

four beers sold in the united states was a budweiser beer. today it's one of 12. nobody is immune. > > so what is involved? do ceos have the responsibility of having the kind of vision to have top-down cultural change? where does this kind of change, this new way of seeing how businesses run, come from? to happen, what a ceo has to do today, is they have to master the art of letting go. few are prepared to do that. there's four things they have to let go of: they have to let go of yesterday's breadwinners, and they have to work it. they can't do it. they refer to them as their legacy brands: "let's hold on, let's hold on," and it's too late. they have to let go of ego, where they have a need to be the smartest person in the room. when they do that, by the time information reaches them, it has been changed and filtered to conform to their vision of the world. i have never met a company that wants to achieve conventional results. everybody wants to achieve unconventional results. but then they employ conventional wisdom. it's a

basic algebraic equation: you cannot achieve unconventional results without employing unconventional wisdom. > > tom friedman of the times, also lawrence katz, labor economist at harvard, have said, yes, you need agile, nimble, quick-thinking, quick- to-change companies, but also a work force. > > that is exactly right. and the only way that happens is when the leader of the organization understands that they have four members of their constituency, four stake- holders, and those are the workers, those are the customers, those are the vendors and suppliers, and those are the shareholders. unfortunately, most companies act only in the interest of the shareholders. layoffs, plant closings, slashing product offerings. great companies, enlightened leaders who create adaptable, nimble, fast, re- inventive companies, are companies that say "we have to serve all four members of the constituency equally," and that's how you get the work force on your team. > > jason jennings, terrific. thank you so much. > > take care. thanks. thanks as always bill. up next, ways traders are positioning for potential profits on the so- called "fiscal cliff." that's coming up.

the so-called fiscal cliff may have you worried about your portfolio. fear not. traders are not shaking in their boots. they are always on the lookout for ways to make money. joining us this morning with trading strategies, larry shover of sfg alternatives and tim biggam of tradingblock. good to have you on the show this morning. > > thank you. > > good to be here angie.

> > larry, we'll start with you this morning. what are some buy or sell signals you're watching? > > i'm looking at volatility in all asset classes. i'm looking at foreign currency volatility - very, very cheap. gold volatility - very, very cheap. i might be worried about the fiscal cliff, but the markets clearly are not worried at all. volatility continues to dip lower every day. > > tim, what does that tell you? the vix seems to be having no fear. > > absolutely. with what we've seen over the past week and some of the concerns out of both the u.s. and europe, the vix right around the 16 level is kind of complacency as well, which, from a contrarian standpoint, gives me a little bit of pause, but also the fact that we had this nice sell-off. remember, cliffs are meant for lemmings to go over, and i think it's time to start making a laundry list of stocks. i kind of like the combination of yield and a little bit of growth - coca-colas of the world paying about a 3% yield, procter and gamble, even apple is about 2% here, all paying well more than the 10-year. so at some point i

think you'll see a rotation out of fixed-income into stocks that pay a decent dividend. > > larry, other than premium, where are you putting your money? > > right now the commodities sector. we have had a mini risk-off mode the last couple of months. people were worried about the debt, worried about the fiscal cliff, and we've seen commodities go lower and lower. i like to look at oil, copper, gold, everything out there right now is under-priced, probably a good place to put your money in the long-term. > > so for somebody who is just watching their portfolio, watching that 401k, should they load up at this point or unload? > > i really think load up is never a good thing to do, nor unload completely. i think that "risk on, risk off" applies to short-term traders. from a long-term perspective, it's not a bad time to be adding to portfolios slowly. as larry mentioned, gold certainly is one place that has come down a little bit here, and if you believe that at some point either they're going to goose the money-printing press or inflation will creep back in, gold will feel the benefit of both of those.

> > larry, you said you are worried though. > > personally i am worried. i just can't imagine them getting this all together. but when i look at asset volatility every day, it continues to drip lower. so what i would do, i would take a little bit of my money and put it in the vix. as tim mentioned, it's around 16. it's very complacent right now. i think it's a good time to take some of the money off the table and put it in the vix. you just don't know what you don't know. > > i'm glad you said vix, i thought you were going to say put it in your mattress. thanks both of you for being on the show today. that's larry shover of sfg alternatives and tim biggam of tradingblock. thanks guys. > > you bet. still ahead, nearly 800 million shares of facebook could hit the market today. is it time to buy or sell the stock? wait 'til you hear what trader scott bauer has to say. chart talk is next.

nearly 800 million shares of facebook could potentially flood the market today. scott bauer of trading advantage joins us for a closer look at that stock. good morning to you

scott. > > good morning angie. > > let's take a look at fb. i am hearing there are fewer short-sellers in this stock. is that a positive sign for facebook? > > i really think it is. look at $19. $19, over the last six months, which is about how long facebook has been trading, is the support level. we haven't really seen another one. that has been big-time support. these 800 million shares that are coming free, a lot of that, like you said, lot of this short-selling is not going to happen. this is baked into the marketplace. i really think that this is an opportunity for anybody that wants to get in long-term to facebook to really say, you know what, this is a good line in the sand, this is an investment i'm going to make long-term in facebook. > > so, traditionally, we have seen some selling going into these lockups, correct? these un-lockups, i should say. > > we have, and you know, we kind of did last week and earlier this week, and then earlier also, i think it was on monday, we saw the stock actually pop quite a bit prior to this selling. but you know

what, each time that you see the lockup come about, and you see these shares sold, the stock tends to hit a bottom and rebound. and i really see that for facebook. i'm not saying that by december expiration or end-of-the-year that we're going to see this thing trading back to the high $20s or $30s, but this really is going to be a significant turning point in the stock for the long-term investor. > > so finally a floor on facebook - we hope. > > looks like it. > > good to have you on the show this morning. that's scott bauer of trading advantage. have a good trading day scott. > > same to you angie. that's a wrap for today. coming up tomorrow, big-time competition at the box office. the new james bond film is a monster hit, but will the final "twilight" make the sky fall? from all of us at first business, have a wonderful wednesday!

. we will tell you about the explosion and the fire that knocked out power. overnight, the cleanup that prompted crews to use a snowplow. and bay area residents got a pleasant surprise, it is all ahead on the bay area news.

it feels like it is so far. >> about the same, i penciled in a lot of 70-degree temperatures and there will be a few high clouds no different than yet. they had another nice easterly breeze and here is sal. good morning, traffic is moving well around the bay area, no major problems if you are driving on 80 westbound heading out to the mcarthur maze and it is also looking good as you look passed the coliseum. they are working on the power after an explosion and fire last