tv First Business FOX November 28, 2012 4:00am-4:30am PST
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now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's wednesday, november 28th. i'm angela miles. stocks and shocks: a sell-off in stocks and commodities took more of a downturn, possibly following comments from senate leader harry reid that budget talks may be stallng out. groupon shares rallied on word talks are underway about a new ceo. investors poured money into green mountain after the close. the stock gained 20% after hours on better-than-expected earnings. and the new apple imac will go on sale friday. larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us now for a closer look at today's trading market. good to have you on the show larry.
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always good to see your smile. a lot of reports were surfacing yesterday that harry reid actually moved the market because he said that talks had stalled out over the fiscal cliff. do you buy into that? > > perhaps. right now, the market seems to be shrugging its shoulders at every headline that comes in, because we are hearing so much. but what harry reid said was really a game- changer, about perhaps trying to curb filibusters. that would be a game-changer, and would put a lid on the stock market. > he could have that much power? unbelievable. all right, let's move on to our next question and talk about greece. for now it looks like greece will not go bankrupt. is that helping the stock market? > > i think it is, but i think it was priced into the stock market. i think the stock market realizes that greece's debt is unsustainable, so anything they can do to prolong that pain until the inevitable happens where there's debt forgiveness is a good thing for the stock market. > what is it better to own right now - a powerball ticket, or
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stocks? > > stocks. absolutely. i would own stocks before a powerball ticket. > good answer. good to have you on the show. that is larry shover of sfg alternatives. > > thank you. president obama hits the road this week to talk directly with americans about budget plans, possibly in hopes of putting pressure on his republican opponents to compromise on a budget deal. the president will meet with middle class americans today at the white house and then travel to the suburbs of philadelphia friday. top ceos from across the country including llyod blankfein of goldman sachs will be talking with congressional leaders on the hill. those same ceos will then meet seperatly with the president. despite signs that negotations between the gop and president obama may be faltering, the white house spokesman is putting out an optimistic tone. "i would point to comments by members of both parties that demonstrate, i think, significant movement toward compromise that, as i have seen and as you and others i'm sure
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have reported on, demonstrate a change in tone." the president and republicans have just 33 days to avoid another recession. at the end of the year, tax breaks expire and drastic spending cuts are due to take effect. bracing for those higher tax rates possibly coming next year, some corporations are handing out 2012 dividend payments that are looking more like christmas presents. walmart and dillard's are among several companies paying dividends in december instead of in early 2013. currently taxed at 15%, that rate, under automatic fiscal cliff increases, could more than double. many investors believe that no matter how the fiscal cliff situation is resolved, dividend tax rates will likely increase in 2013. jamie dimon is getting public praise from billionaire warren buffett. this week on charlie rose, mr. buffett said he thinks mr. dimon could be the "best person for the job" after treasury secretary timothy geithner steps down. mr. buffett notes that dimon could
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deftly handle another financial crisis, even though jp morgan was forced to take a government bailout during the financial crisis and dimon came under question earlier this year, when the bank lost 6 billion dollars in a trading blunder. cyber monday could almost be re- named "mobile monday." a growing number of consumers used their smartphones and tablets to shop on cyber monday this year. it contributed to an overall bump in sales of 30% from last year. comscore is estimating that sales will reach a whopping 1.5 billion dollars. amazon's kindle fire was the day's most searched-for gift on the web. others that were high in demand were uggs, ipads, the ipod touch, legos, and the wii. some consumers did not get what they bargained for this cyber monday. 132 websites in the u.s. and europe were shut down after allegedly selling counterfeit goods such as jerseys, software and nike shoes. it is the third year in a row websites have been seized for illegal activity on the popular online shopping day.
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more sites are likely to be shut down as the investigation continues. sac capital is holding a special investor call this morning. the firm is under the microscope in the wake of what the sec calls the largest insider trading case it has pursued. charges have been levelled against former sac employee mathew martoma. a call like this is considered unusal, but is not unprecendented. it is not clear if founder steven cohn will be on the line, but management will field questions about the sec's case. the call is scheduled ahead of the market open. there are laws against discrimination by employers, but what about mid-level managers who don't hire and fire but can make an employee's work day miserable because of race, religion, sex or age? in our cover story, the supreme court is weighing that in vance v. ball state, a ruling that could bring mistreatment on the job a step closer to being shown the door. in 1989, ball state university hired maetta vance to work in
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the school's dining department. for 16 years, she was the department's only african- american employee and, according to court documents, was regularly subjected to racial ephithets from co- workers, including those who oversaw what she did each day. "those are the people who workers feel they can't confront if they're being harassed." the university issued a statement saying racially- charged remarks would not be tolerated. despite a series of reprimands, the abuse continued. ultimately, vance sued her employer, the university, and her case has led to the supreme court. this week, justices heard oral arguments. employment attorneys say the case could have wide-ranging implications to any american workplace. "if employers recognize that there's liability, it may create a better workplace but also frustrate employers because you're going to have employers feel they're under a
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lot of scrutiny of their everyday activities, and that's tough for a lot of employers." the case could redefine "supervisor" beyond someone who hires, fires, promotes or demotes. it could include those who "control the daily work activities" of an employee. that would make someone who supervises employees daily - often in close contact - subject to the same standard of conduct as employers. "it'll be interesting to see where they go with it because they've been expanding employer liability for just those types of employment decisions." oral arguments before the supreme court have concluded. a test vote will be held later this week. a ruling could come by the end of june, although some oberservers think it may be released sooner. good help is hard to find, so several car companies are hiring siri to assist drivers. siri, apple's digital assistant, has become popular, and
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especially so with millennials. that's prompting gm and ford to install siri in small car models that appeal to younger, digitally savvy drivers. she'll have the same demeanor, but will also be eyes-free in addition to hands-free. chevy's spark and sonic, along with ford's fiesta, will all soon house siri. the ceo of autonomy is taking allegations against his software company by hewlett- packard very personally. autonomy ceo mike lynch shot off an open letter to hp's board requesting details of alleged accounting blunders. hewlett- packard claims autonomy's books were inaccurate when it purchased the company, which is now resulting in an $8.8-billion write-down for hp. hewlett- packard officials maintain the legal process will bring out the facts. conagra foods is packaging up a new brand. the company has purchased "private label" food
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company "ralcorp holdings" for 5 billion dollars. since the recession, consumers have more of an appetite for store-label brands vs popular brand names. conagra's lines include well- known products such as chef boyardee, while ralcorp offers grocery store labeled brands of cereal, pasta and crackers. conagra shares hit a 7-year high of $29 yesterday. the record powerball jackpot could be part of a powerful plan. this week, the powerball hit a half-billion dollars. the associated press reports lottery offcials want to increase sales by driving up jackpots, as state and federal governments get a cut of the winnings. lottery offcials have not responded to the accusations, but did say the purpose of the lotto is to generate revenue for states, and that high jackpots help the lottery acheive its goals. lottery officials say 60% of ticket sales happen on the day of the drawing, which means the pot may far exceed the half- billion dollar mark today. still to come, why one exchange
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farmers are raking in big profits. the u.s. department of agriculture finds that nearly 50,000 farms have gross sales of more than a million dollars a year. farmers who run their own commercial farms typically have more access to resources that help them compete with larger- scale farms. small business owners are bracing for what could become a better-than-expected holiday season. alice bredin, the small businesss advisor to american express, is keeping tabs with the results of a new survey. good morning to you alice. > > good morning. > based on what happened on small business saturday, how are entreprenuers feeling about the economy as we close out the year? > > small business saturday was fantastic. it's great to be local - it's good to buy local, it's good to sell local - so that was all great. what we know right now is that business owners tell us they are actually feeling better about cashflow than they were this time last year, and that is the
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oxygen in a small company, so i think it is a great sign. > will small business owners be passing that along to their employees? for instance, awarding bonuses? > > that is true. it is a bit of an up, up and away situation right now, with the holidays and small business owners. they are planning on giving bonuses this year in greater numbers than last year. one in four small business owners tell us they will in fact give bonuses this year. that's great news. > how about holiday office parties? i know my office never misses a holiday party, ever. we are grateful. > > everyone loves a party, and the holidays are a fantastic time for small business owners to thank their employees. they genuinely feel so thankful toward them. they know they are the key to their success. and they are telling us that this year they will be throwing holiday parties in greater numbers than they did last year. 40% of them will be having a holiday party, 40% of small business owners say they will get together and celebrate. they are spending a teeny bit less than they spent this time last year on a holiday party. that doesn't really worry me. you can have a lot of fun for less. maybe they are going bowling instead of doing something else. it doesn't
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matter, because it's all great. > how well do small business owners do with charitable giving? > > they are very charitable. they are big givers back to their local communities, they recognize the importance of being a member of the national local community through financial giving, so it's a very important part of who they are. in general, business owners feel so close to the people who helped them to be successful and in general feel fantastic about being a small business owner, so they really like to give back to others because they feel lucky to be doing what they are doing, and i think that translates into a lot of giving. > that is a nice note. we will leave it there. that is alice bredin of american express. thanks alice, happy holidays to you. > > thanks, you too. still ahead, how the potential shutdown of a betting website could shake things up for traders. that's next.
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traders are stunned to learn that intrade.com, the online site that allows people to bet on events that affect the stock market and more, is being sued. the company is accused of improperly offering options betting on future prices of gold, crude oil and even econonmic data. attorney hugh totten of valorem group and
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alan knuckman of option shop join us this morning with reaction. good to have you guys on the show today. > > thank you for having me. > > thank you. > alan, what was your immediate reaction when you heard the news? > > as a trader, we look at this more for fun than anything else. the prediction markets do provide a variable price discovery mechanism for some things that aren't traded on exchanges, and it's interesting to see, because as a contrarian, if everybody is leaning one direction, i am usually thinking that they're wrong, because the public is usually wrong, and might want to look at things the other way > hugh, is that what got the company into trouble? > > i think what got them into trouble is, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it is a duck. in addition to
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trading on predictions of a political nature or even, according to their website today, who is going to win the academy award, what they are trading on are futures of gold prices, futures of economic indicators; and those are things that are actually traded on an exchange, and they sort of derive from those exchanges, and i think that is what the cftc is really worried about. > alan, as you know, intrade.com correctly predicted what was going to happen with the election, and now it is telling us about the fiscal cliff, and the odds are very low that we will go over that fiscal cliff. so, does this change anything in the trading community other than just not having this outlet? > > i think smart traders stay away from markets like gold and oil because volume is the key. without big volume, you don't distill that information that you need to make a decision. so, i don't think it is going to dissuade anybody. but if you really wanted to trade these markets, just like online poker, there are ways to do it, even if you are in the united states. but they are probably better to stick to the prediction business, because that is what they do best. > the statement appears on
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intrade's site, as he alluded to. it is calling the report of intrade's death premature, and that there are plans for a new exchange model to make it legal. hugh, any thoughts on what a new model could look like? what can they do, move to the cayman islands? > > they are in dublin right now, so i don't think a movement is what's in store. but i think what they are going to have to do is they are going to have to stop trading on these things that look like they are deriving from the commodities market, and just stick with the things that are pure predictions, and i don't think that would come under the jurisdiction of the cftc at that point. it will be more like gambling. > > and that's fine by me as a trader, because it is my job to figure out what the markets are going to do - not what the event's going to be - and how the market is going to react, and those are two very different things. > alan, will you miss it if it goes away completely? > > it is fun for politics and for other so-called bets, but i would rather trade in the markets where i can control my probability a little bit better. > we will leave it there. thanks guys for being on the show. that is hugh totten of valorem group and alan knuckman of option shop. have a great day everybody. > > thank you. coming up next, the coffee stock that is grinding out trades this week. chart talk is after the break.
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keeneonthemarket.com, joins me now. why was this stock so hot with traders? even before earnings came out, there was a lot of buzz. > > the market sold off a little bit yesterday, and what we saw is green mountain actually closing toward the highs, at $29.25. then, in the after hours session, off to the races. i was talking about it in the trading room. $32.50 was a very critical level. this is where its recent highs have been. if it breaks out to $32.50, which it broke last night, it can really get to this $40 level. we have a 40% short interest on this stock, so the shorts are getting roasted in the after-hours session. keep an eye on it tomorrow. it traded up to about $37, sold off, settled around $35.50 last night. so it should be very interesting. as i look to trade it today, i am going to trade it intra-day for sure, i am looking to open in, i am going to see what are the price action, price momentum. are there more people that are actually long the stock that want to now sell some of their profits with the stock up 27%, or are there more people that have to cover their short
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position, up 27%? so this one is going to be very, very interesting. > is this a stock that is now just a momentum, a hot stock, a trader-y stock? or, is it ok for just a long-term investor to jump in? > > i think in the short-term it is a good trade to the long side. however, as a long-term investment, i am not looking to do that. as we talked about in rim as well, the chart looks very strong in rim - rim looks very strong on the chart in the short-term. long-term, i don't think there is a play in rim. very similar to green mountain. did they have a good quarter? their gross margin was actually down, so that concerns me. inventory, accounting irregularities, competition - there are a lot of things that concern me in green mountain going forward. but as a trade play that's to the long side, taking advantage of those shorts being roasted i think might be a good play. > andrew, may your cup runneth over today. have a good trading day. > > thank you. that's a wrap for us today. coming up on tomorrow's show, americans stuffed theaters over the thanksgiving weekend. will they go back for a second helping this weekened? we hope you will join us for movies & money on thursday. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching, and have a great
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before the stamp, we will let you know when that rain hits. the storm could bring winds up to 45 miles per hour, it's all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. this is ktvu channel 2 morning news. and good morning everybody, it is wednesday november 28th, i am brian flores. and i guess this is the beginning steve of a very big storm. >> yes. >> he paused. >> not all in one day. >> that is correct, brian and pam, if you leave right now you might miss it, i only had a few sprinkles and the main core is still offshore but it is getting close and you can see rain is starting to pick up a little bit. we see the yellow and green and
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