toyota is set to topple gm in car sales. why coming in second place might not be all that bad for the u.s. car company. in today's cover story, are budget talks in washington killing chrismas for retailers? plus, the winter trade. the sectors of the stock market that go up when temperatures drop. dairy dollars - how entrepreneurs can learn from the latest greek yogurt craze. what small businesses need to do now to prepare for 2013. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's tuesday, december 18th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: soaring stocks. the dow rallied 100 points higher yesterday, with the other indices following suit along with gold and oil. oil was up on hopes of a budget deal out of washington. boeing's buying back $3.6

billion shares is getting trader buzz. the company is also pushing up its dividend by 10%. microsoft founder bill gates is upping his stake in in deere & company to 7% from 5.8%. deere closed last night at $86. in the fallout from the tragedy in newtown, connecticut, which remains on our minds, some interesting stats: reports say gun rights groups have given $17 million in campaign contributions, while contributions are $1.7 million for gun control groups. larry levin of trading advantage joins us now for a closer look at today's market action. good to have you on the show this morning. > > nice to be here. thank you. > i am still sensing traders are feeling a bit of a somber trade. even though the market rallied yesterday, i am imagining that what happened in sandy hook is still very much on traders' minds. > > i would certainly think that people are thinking about that. anybody who is a parent

certainly is thinking about it and talking about it here on the trading floors. but that certainly didn't stop people from buying the market up strong yesterday, that's for sure. but definitely something that has got traders talking a little quieter than they might otherwise. > there is also some sobering news coming from the latest economists' survey. they see a mediocre 2013 for the economy. > > i don't disagree with that. 2012 wasn't so spectacular. the market went up a little bit, or a decent amount, but the economy has got a ways to go. the jobs situation in the u.s. is an issue that i don't think is going to go away anytime soon, and if that is the case, 2013 will be a year that will be tough on a lot of people. > larry, what are you seeing seasonally? sometimes there are themes that emerge in the market from seasonal trading. what are you seeing out there?

> > certainly as you get into the season, you get into the colder months. we look at energies seemingly rallying as people start thinking about that and even just a psychological trade when the colder months make you think we are going to use more energy, heat and oil, things like that. that is something a lot of traders think about, and if energy costs more, then maybe the stock indexes and the equities in general are going to go down because people want to sell those markets as seasonal, like you just mentioned, they might go up. so, that is maybe one way to take a look at it. > larry levin of trading advantage. thanks for your time today larry. have a good day. > > you too. retailers say uncertainty about the fiscal cliff is slowing holiday spending. there's nearly always a lull after the so-called black friday weekend of sales. but, as our cover story explains, this year the dip has been deeper. retailers knew it was coming. they just didn't know how bad it would be. the retail lull that followed the $59-billion blowout weekend from black friday to cyber monday. "it's pretty much been deeper than expected." "and it's persisted longer and we've seen growth rates lower than expected." there's nearly always a trough. how long it lasts and how deep it becomes in this case isn't the result of what is happening as much as what might happen. "i think the fiscal cliff is playing on people's minds and

changing their spending habits in a dramatic way." "we're sort of worrying about what we don't know to worry about. are taxes going to go up for everybody? are they going to go up for a few?" to many, the threat is real and could be felt immediately. as of january first, the payroll tax could rise and cut take-home pay by about $100 a month for middle-class wage-earners. that's enough to make anyone hope for doorbuster deals every day. "i think people pulled back, and we have so many late shoppers that 1/3 of them are waiting for doorbuster deals." the retail trough is not a complete surprise. the university of michigan consumer sentiment index dropped more than eight points from late november to early december. but there is hope. and because christmas falls on a tuesday, retailers and panicked shoppers get an extra weekend this year. "we were pretty surprised to find 50% of people hadn't completed half their shopping." "the single busiest day is still the saturday before christmas, and i expect most stores will

be open 'til midnight." too soon to tell if the additional weekend can overcome what worry over the fiscal cliff has taken away. but at worst, online analysts - a growing segment of retail - are shaving a couple of percentage points off their october predictions. as mentioned earlier, buyers emerged in the market as the latest budget offer from house speaker john boehner presented a sign we may be backing away from falling of the fiscal cliff. president obama and congressmen boehner spent roughly 45 minutes in a meeting at the white house monday. the latest position from the gop appears to be a willingness to raise taxes and increase the debt ceiling as long as deep cuts in entitlements are attached. foreign countries now own a record amount of u.s. debt at $5.48 trillion. china owns the most government debt, around $1.16 trillion. japan is a close second by around $1.13 trillion, and brazil rounds out the top three with $255 billion

dollars worth of u.s. debt. meanwhile, economists say u.s. investors are buying debt from countries in europe instead of the u.s., which could signal that investors are less afraid of the euro crisis than before. 6 million americans will soon get money from credit card companies. american express, discover and capital one were all caught in a government crackdown on deceptive credit card practices and will now have to pay back customers a collective $435 million in refunds. american express is already refunding customers, some of whom were charged higher late fees or never received reward money they were promised. some of the refunds are coming by check, others will be on credit card statements, but all the money should be paid back by march. a decision on a record fine for

ubs could come today. bloomberg reports ubs could be bracing to pay a $1.6-billion fine this week. the claims filed against ubs accuse the bank of manipulating the libor, or the interest rate banks use to borrow from each other. ubs' fine of over a billion dollars is nearly triple what barclays paid when it settled a similar case in june. ubs has made no public comments regarding the fine. jp morgan is beind sued over mortgage losses. the national credit union administration is filing lawsuits against both jpmorgan and its bear stearns unit. the suit claims that bad mortgages totaling $3.6 billion were sold to a handful of federal credit unions. losses from the mortgage securities eventually led the unions to collapse. rim is giving 120 top-tier customers a sneak peak of the new blackberry 10. select government and enterprise customers are beta-testing the

new phone. the blackberry 10, which launches next month, is considered by many watchers to be a make-or-break device for blackberry. research in motion, better known as rim, has been struggling mightily to maintain market share against the iphone. the race to the top spot in car sales is becoming more competitive. currently, general motors is in the lead, but toyota is coming on strong and so is volkswagon. based on gm's track record of overproducing cars then offering incentives to clear out showrooms, coming in second is not that bad accoridng to joe wiesenfelder of cars.com. "it might seem like they are losing by going to 2nd or even 3rd place, but in reality if they are giving more incentives to raise sales numbers, it's not necessarily a good long- term strategy." globally, sales of cars and trucks in 2012 are expected to exceed 80 million, making it a record year. the largest demand is for fuel-efficent vehicles. a buyout is brewing at caribou coffee. the minneapolis-based coffee chain is being taken private. a german holding

company plans to shell out $324 million for the buyout, and will pay $16 per share. caribou shares gained steam on the news. shares closed up 30% yesterday at $16.10. a couple of deals are on the table this morning. elliott management is offering to buy software developer compuware for $2.35 billion. shares of compuware rallied more than 13% as officials said they are thinking it over. meanwhile, sprint has reached an agreement to buy the rest of clearwire it doesn't already own for $2.97 per share. that's 7 cents more than its last offer, for a grand total of $2.2 billion. tropicana is betting that adding veggies to its juice will add customers to its base. hitting stores next month, farmstand will incorporate vegetables into tropicana's fruit juice for the first time. campbell's has seen success with the similar v-8 fusion drinks. tropicana says the new beverage is poised to do even better with

the concept because of the product's presence in the refrigerated section of the grocery store. pepsico hopes a new sweetener will add new life to diet pepsi. the company has quietly been changing the blend of artificial sweeteners it uses. pepsico claims a different sweetener doesn't mean a different taste. the change comes in the wake of pepsi losing market share to coke in recent years and just ahead of a major rebranding effort for diet pepsi. the merger of united and continental airlines gets a major boost as pilots okay a joint union contract. flying under one contract will eliminate one of the last sticking points of the 2010 merger, blending two different sets of work rules and pay scales. pilots will receive raises averaging 43.2%, and they've agreed to the use of larger regional jets. this new contract runs through the end of 2016. still to come, changing tastes: how one company conquered the yogurt industry. that story later.

but first, a look at the books. what business owners need to know about planning for end-of- the-year finances. that's next.

the old boy scout motto "be prepared" applies to an awful lot of things, and that includes owners of small businesses as the end of year approaches. with me is sonja brisard, she's owner of bookeeping express and is here with tips for small business

owners. sonja, first of all, welcome. > > thank you. > tell us, how small is small? what are you talking about here? how many employees? > > 50 or fewer is considered a small business. > ok. you told me you have about 10 clients here in chicago. what are you advising them to do? > > first of all, it is not too late. if you haven't done anything all year in terms of your record keeping and your books, it is not too late. organize your receipts. gather them up. find someplace to put them. the old adage of a shoebox? that still works. find an expandable folder. put things in order by month, by category: utilities, rent, office supplies. and get some help if you need some help. find someone who can help you put your records in order. > what do small business owners forget to do, when you talk to them and you hear them come to you for advice? > > the biggest thing they forget to do is keep track of the small expenses. those small expenses can add up, and you can lose out of big business deductions. so keep track of every little dollar that you spend. you may not need it for

your irs purposes, but you need it for your taxes and your business deductions. > this is regardless of what happens in terms of washington with the fiscal cliff, correct? we should all be ready to go to our tax preparer. > > exactly. you need this no matter what happens with the fiscal cliff. it is just something you need to keep your business in order so that you understand what is going on and you're tax ready. > very good. what about internal to your company? what sorts of things should small business owners be doing if they are not doing already, or things that you would advise them to start doing for next year? > > sure. a couple things: first thing is, as a small- business owner, make sure your bank statements and credit card statements come to you un- opened. you review them and make sure that you understand all the transactions. that can

prevent fraud from any employee doing something or making unauthorized transactions. keep separate banking and credit-card accounts. at year-end, you don't want to have to spend time sorting through personal expenses verses business expenses. it is stressful and it can save you time and money if you do those things. > terrific advice. sonja, thank you so much for joining us today. sonja brisard of bookeeping express. > > thank you. still ahead, yogurt is big business - and getting bigger. how one company is stirring things up. more on that next.

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a greek invasion is happening in america in the form of yogurt. hamdi ulukaya, founder, president and ceo of chobani yogurt, joins us now. you have the number-one-selling greek yogurt in the united states. 35% of the market share. so tell us, you now have even bigger news to report. what is it? > > chobani has built a second plant in the united states. we built a 1-million-square-foot plant in less than 11 months, and we are so excited that we are going to be launching three new chobani items from this plant as much as the other ones that all the country is asking for. > how many jobs will you be creating? > > this is starting with 330 jobs, but that is just phase one. > what do you make of all the

success of chobani, and why do you think greek yogurt is so popular right now? > > when we started in a little plant in south evanston five years ago, we believed that food in general should be pure, it should be natural, and it should be accessible. and it should taste awesome. and that is what we aimed for. and we started with yogurt, which is a centuries-, centuries-old food that has been enjoyed for generations everywhere in the world. what happened is, yogurt was never introduced in the right way here in this country. and i think people found it, they loved it, and they spread the word to everybody. you know, throughout our growth for the last five years, we barely did any marketing, except a

little bit in 2011 and our team u.s.a. sponsorship. so the consumer, when they like something, they will take it to the next level, and that's what we saw. but it is still the beginning. we believe that yogurt has just started. we believe that the next five years is going to be more and more people coming to the category and staying. > it is now a $6-billion industry, but you have other companies, such as dannon, a lot of companies trying to play catch-up to you. > > my suggestions to - i don't know the big guys, how they do it - but my suggestions to start-ups, which i was five years ago, is, the marketplace is flat. and for us, if we really make some good food, healthy food, we can make it. so, if you are big or small, it doesn't make any difference anymore. consumers are looking for something great. > there is one concern about your yogurt - and i admit, it is delicious - but, the sugar content, for me, for instance, is way too high. even though the protein is high, it's sugary to me. > > what you will see is gradually, the sweetness of the yogurt is going to go lower and

lower and lower. at least that is what we are going to do with chobani. we don't want to shock it right from the beginning. a lot of consumers are doing it that way. but we have a habit of 20 years, and we have to go to the right direction. > it sounds like you really get this business, and it was wonderful to chat with you today. that is chobani ceo hamdi ulukaya. thank you. > > thank you for having me. stay with us. chart talk is next.

matt shapiro of mws capital joins us now for a closer look at g.e. good morning to you matt. > > good morning angie. > why is this stock, and why now? > > have you noticed lately, the past week or two, the dow seems to be catching up and doing a little bit better, even, than the s&p 500. and one of the reasons are these big stocks like g.e., that i think are finally coming out of a slumber and are going to have a great year next year.

> but haven't we missed the rally on this stock? > > a lot of people have kind of forgotten about g.e. everyone is thinking about apple, facebook, research in motion. what is the next hot stock, recovery-wise? but g.e. used to be $18, just sitting there, a total dog. now that it's popped up to $22, people are scratching their heads. where can it go? what i think it can do is go a lot higher. this stock used to be $40 before the financial crisis, and its businesses are still more than fine. it is paying a 3% dividend, and, as i said, the dow is doing a lot better lately, you will notice, and it's these big, diversified industrial stocks that seem to have the momentum with them. > i am so glad you mentioned this, because i have people coming to me all the time saying, "give me a hot stock tip angie." and sometimes, it is right under your nose. > > yeah it is. g.e. touches all our lives. as they say in

their commercials, it does everything from medical images to locomotives - rails are doing extremely well - to all sorts of, even drilling they've gotten into. so along with their traditional businesses, i think you will find a very vibrant company that has a lot of resources in it and is at the leading edge of many highly technological things that, really, i think are going to lead the market next year. > railroads have been hot lately, at least a lot of talk. it's interesting, there's a lot of call buyers, for instance, surrounding csx right now, so it's interesting you said that about g.e. good to have you on the show this morning. > > thank you so much. > that is matt shapiro of mws capital. that wraps up today. coming up tomorrow, wine investors are hitting some sour notes as counterfiet bottles are coming onto the market. a wine pro will be here to un-cork the story. from all of us at first business, have a great day.

. the road closure drivers need to watch out for. eight people including 3 firefighters are taking tone redwood city, what happened where they found hazardous materials. and in newtown connecticut, we will have a live report as the community continues to mourn. good morning everybody, it is tuesday december 18l1thl0, i am brian flores. >> they cleared out yesterday afternoon. >>