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? >> reporter: tina new thought she'd found happiness with eric bechler. until he changed his story about what happened the day his wife disappeared in the ocean. >> you didn't think about going to police. >> no. not yet. i just felt like it wasn't telling me the truth all the way. and i was really afraid because he was always with me. >> reporter: afraid. yet they continued to see each other, sleep together and party about two weeks after eric changed his story, he and tina went to a club and took the drug ecstasy. >> we get home, we walk inside the house, and we're just both laying on the bed, staring straight up at the ceiling together. all of a sudden as we were talking, i just-- it just came to me, and i said to him, i said, "oh my god, you hit her over the head." and he goes, "how did you know that?" >> reporter: the fact is, she hadn't known. call it intuition. or the effects of the drug. or a random guess.

>> i said, "you need to tell me the truth." he's calmly talking to me and he says, "i-- i'm going to tell you the truth." he goes, "we had this huge party, so everybody could see how happy we were together." >> reporter: all their friends were there. witnesses to the happy marriage. then a couple of days later she says eric told her he took pegye out to sea on that rented boat. and although pegye didn't know it, he took along some weights. >> and he goes, "then i walked up behind her." and he goes, "tina, i he hard she didn't feel a thing." and i'm just like, "what do you mean you hit her so hard?" and he goes, "i hit her over the head with the weight." >> reporter: she said he told her there was blood everywhere. then, tina says, eric bechler told her how he got rid of his wife. >> he did some knot that he knows, and he -- he did her wrists and her ankles together so she was completely bent in half. he said he took the two trash bags that he had and put her body in it, and then he said he

>> reporter: two years after pegye vanished. a stunning confession. >> and then do you go to sleep next to a man that you believe is a killer. >> no. and-- no, actually then we have sex. and i felt like i had to do it because i think that made him feel like i was going to be quiet, and you know, that he was, i don't know, sealing the deal with me or something. >> reporter: but the deal was not sealed. not with anyone. the case was still open and detectives had been keeping an they knew the relationship was growing volatile. >> we excited about it in a morbid kind of a way, because we knew it was going to go sideways. >> because when relationships go sideways, sometimes people start talking? >> that's right. >> reporter: and that's what happened two weeks after eric's apparent confession. a neighbor called 911 after hearing yelling coming from tina's apartment. when police arrived, eric was gone. but tina was angry.

card detective murphy had given her almost two years earlier. >> i grabbed my partner. and we went out there in the middle of the night. and we met up with tina. >> reporter: she told detective murphy and his partner gary jones - what eric had said. a big break, yes. but not nearly enough for an arrest. remember, tina was pretty far from an ideal witness. detectives knew they'd need more than her word against eric's. so they asked tina. >> "will you be willing to wear a wire?" and i said, "yes, that's the only way you're going to get him." >> why would you turn in a guy who had basically taken you from a terrible life and given you a great life? >> because i couldn't live with myself. i mean, no way. >> reporter: police planted microphones in her car, in her purse, and on her body. and tina arranged a meeting. she told eric that after the domestic violence call, sheriff's homicide detectives came in to ask questions about

eric - was to get their stories straight in case the cops questioned her again. tina - wired up - picked up eric from his home and drove to a restaurant called el torito. >> were you worried about this? >> not really. i was more worried that i wasn't going to get him to confess it again. >> i have two stories in my head, i don't want to screw up at all. >> okay, there's nothing. there's no story to tell, you weren't there, it was an accident. >> let's go have some margaritas. >> restaurant, tina tried to get eric to repeat the details of pegye's death. eric wouldn't go there. >> you don't need to worry about details, details are not important. >> reporter: so tina tried to get him to say why he did it. >> you could have just got a divorce, why would you go to that degree? i mean, how do you know if you don't get so mad at me and you wouldn't want to kill me? >> tina, i've been way more mad at you than i ever was. >> i know so how could you do that?

confession but it's not a denial either. >> are you thinking to yourself at that point, "that's it, i got him." >> i honestly thought that was good, but i still thought that wasn't enough. >> eric you do know. so there's a reason was it because the money or is it just for. >> reporter: remember, pegye had a life insurance policy worth more than $2 million. >> it's partly money, partly about the kids. >> reporter: again, she tried to get him to give her a reason. >> what was it about her that made you want to go to that extreme? >> i felt like i was backed in a corner like she was going to steal the kids away and i'd never see them again. >> reporter: and eric reassured tina. >> all i know is that i would never, ever do anything to harm anybody again. >> she was good. she was really good. >> reporter: but the drama wasn't over. tina left the restaurant with eric, still wired up. >> and this is where it gets really scary. so, we're walking out to the car and he says to me, "let me sdr drive." >> reporter: that was not part of the plan. >> and we lose sight of them. >> now, you know, in a movie this is where you hear the sound of gunshots. >> that would not have been

>> reporter: in the car with eric now behind the wheel, tina cranked up her acting skills and the tension. >> i can't live with the lie. >> tell them -- just tell them [ bleep ] i haven't talked about it for over a year and a half and you don't remember the details. >> you are making me lie and it's not easy for me. >> i'm not making you do anything. you can [ bleep ] turn me in if you want to. >> turn you in for what? >> turn me [ bleep ] in. >> [ bleep ] tell them everything. >> what? >> whatever you [ bleep ] want. >> don't you talk to me that way. >> reporter: now tina tried to get eric out of the car. >> pull my car over! >> i will. >> now! i don't trust you. i'm afraid of you now. >> i'm just -- all i'm asking. you don't have -- nobody knows anything but you. you don't have to tell anybody anything. >> reporter: eric pulled over and got out. and tina hopped in the driver seat. >> if you guys can still hear me, meet me at my house, that's where i'm going to be. >> reporter: just like that, tina new drove away from her old life. >> in the end you got enough?

>> you understand you're under arrest. >> reporter: eric was arrested and charged with pegye's murder. >> well, what was it like to get the call that eric had been arrested? >> well, i just trembled all over. i couldn't really -- couldn't really believe it. >> reporter: but two weeks after eric's arrest made headlines, tina made some headlines of her own. that put the whole case in jeopardy. coming up -- >> i did not commit thisme tina's credibility, that's on trial, too. >> did you think anybody would believe you? >> no. >> without that statement, they don't have anything that makes

>> reporter: beach volleyball is a kid's game played by grownups. murder for profit is played only by adults. and it's for keeps. prosecutors believed eric bechler was trying to be

detectives had put him in jail. but then, two weeks after eric's arrest, came this headline in the local paper. "witness in murder case doubts suspect's guilt." tina new, who'd worn a wire and helped police nail eric, now said maybe he didn't kill pegye. >> i knew that the kids had lost their mom, and now they're gonna probably lose their dad for a very long time. and so i felt guilty. >> reporter: guilty that s thought she'd marry. >> and i remember he called me from the jail and he told me that he had tried to hang himself with his sheets. >> it was eric's frantic behavior from -- from the lockup, that was enough to make you think twice. >> i didn't want him to die. >> you felt guilty. >> i felt guilty. >> and you tried to roll the whole thing back. >> yeah, i did. >> reporter: but, she says, she always believed he was guilty. and in the winter of 2000, eric bechler went on trial.

compromised. not just by her waffling about eric's guilt and her own checkered past, but also by one detail in the story tina says eric told her, something defense attorney john barnett says is critical. >> you'd expect if pegye's head was caved in by 35 pound dumbbells, there'd be blood. >> quite a lot of it. >> everywhere. and there wasn tried to defend herself. >> i'm a horrible witness when it comes to looking at me on paper. >> did you think anybody would believe you? >> no. you know, i knew that i told exactly what he had said to me and i knew that i was doing the right thing. and i honestly didn't care what anybody thought. >> reporter: then there was the conversation she had recorded at el torito. eric's own words. the jury heard all of them. barnett offered his own explanation.

calm her down. in any event, the defense said -- eric never said on tape that he hit pegye. the only person who heard him say that was tina. a drug user. a woman with a fraud conviction on her record. without that statement, they have a lot of circumstantial evidence and a lot of what ifs, but they don't have anything that makes this a homicide. >> reporter: the defense offered bechler. >> she was under a great deal of pressure and could easily be distracted, and, in combination with alcohol which she rarely drank but she did on that day, could contribute to a lack of care in driving the boat. >> you don't think pegye bechler faked her death? you think she's dead? >> i don't think she faked her death. no, i do not think that. >> you think she died accidentally -- >> that's -- >> --and her body still hasn't been found? >> that's right. >> reporter: prosecutor debbie

>> he basically had 3.5 million reasons to kill her. and that's about what he stood to gain if he had gotten away with it. >> reporter: and, said the prosecutor, the circumstantial evidence was compelling. eric had a weight tree back at home that appeared to be incomplete. investigators believed eric used the missing weights to kill pegye and then sink her body. and what about the blood? a luminol test conducted on the boat indicated there might have been a lot of blood in the boat, but that it was cleaned up, matching tina's testimony about blood everywhere. and of course, there was tina herself. despite her past and her criminal record and her drug use, she rang true to you? >> yes, absolutely. >> reporter: who would the jury believe? and would tina's past make a difference? >> it doesn't matter what i did before or after i met him. you know, what i did with myself, has nothing to do with what he did.

guilty of first degree murder. >> you're thrilled that the man who did it is behind bars, but nobody wins in this situation, nobody. the children now have no mother and no father. so there is no winner. >> reporter: but the jury did not believe eric killed pegye for the money. he was found not guilty of murder for financial gain. at his sentencing, eric bechler addressed the judge, once again denying he killed pegye. tragedy that has befallen both of our families. as much as the marshalls are hurting, my family is also hurting because i did not commit this crime. >> reporter: the judge sentenced him to life without the possibility of parole. eric's mother, linda, thinks the verdict was wrong. >> is it possible you don't know your son as well as you think you know him? >> oh baloney. i know that kid like the back of my hand.

>> listen, if my kid was a druggie, doper, ne'er-do-well, thief, rapist -- >> murderer? >> well, yeah, but he isn't. he isn't. >> reporter: pegye bechler's body has never been found. >> you wanted to know what happened, but you still don't want to hear murder. >> but at least now you know. >> that's still pretty hard to take. and even with all this information, we don't have a >> you all right? >> yeah. >> you discover you were stronger than you thought you were? >> oh, yeah. >> reporter: pegye's mother and sister ended up raising her kids. and one more person who was stronger than she thought, tina new. >> you're leading a different life these days. >> completely different life now. >> reporter: she gave up drugs, married a nice guy and now she's a stay-at-home mom with five

sometimes real life is better. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm lester holt. thanks for joining us. this sunday, the final days before the election. and a mad scramble by both candidates. hillary clinton targeting her check mate states. >> tonight, i want roar. >> donald trump, still searching for a path to 270. >> nobody said it was going to be easy for us. but we will never be stopped. never, ever be stopped. >> we'll get the latest from our correspondents on the campaign trail. i will talk to former speaker of the house newt gingrich. and the chairman of the clinton campaign, john podesta. plus, where the race stands this morning, the results from our final nbc news/wall street

inside analysis from the pollsters. and finally, the race for the senate. >> would you tell a child to aspire to be like donald trump? would you point to him as a role model? >> absolutely. >> has turned his back on us. >> we will break down the key battles state by state and the last minute fight for control. joining me for this last "meet the press" before the ee lebs are nbc news special correspondent tom brokaw, republican strategist nicolle wallace, chris matthews, savannah guthrie and jose diaz belart. this is it. welcome to sunday, and a special edition of "meet the press." >> from new york, this is a special edition of "meet the press" with chuck todd. >> good sunday morning from election headquarters, right here at 30 rock in new york

an election that peter heart says was never about hope. it's always been about fear. fear on one side of a changing world and a changing america. and fear on the other side about donald trump. we have a lot to cover. we will get right to it. here it is, our final brand-new nbc news/wall street journal poll out this morning. we have a tightening race. hillary clinton leading donald trump by four points in the four-way matchup. 44 to 40. that's a big change from last month's poll which had clinton leading d that poll, of course, taken before the james comey e-mail announcement. last night in reno, nevada, trump was rushed off stage when someone in the crowd shouted gun. there was no gun. trump did return to finish that speech. >> nobody said it was going to be easy for us. but we will never be stopped. never, ever be stopped. i want to thank the secret

>> at the same time, hillary clinton was rallying her voters with the help of katy perry and a concert in philadelphia. >> you ready to rock for hillary? >> when your kids and grandkids ask you what you did in 2016 when it was all on the line, i want you to be able to say, i voted for a better, fairer, stronger america where everybody has a chance >> this weekend, the two campaigns are taking very different paths to election day. today, hillary clinton and tim kaine are targeting a number of states in an attempt to try to check mate trump. michigan, not yet lit up on our board, is suddenly in play. tomorrow clinton and president obama and bill clinton are all going to be saturating that suddenly into the battleground state. d donald trump and mike pence have no clear path.

the wall, trying to find some combination of new states, like minnesota, that will get them to 270 electoral votes. of course, they still have to win the traditional battleground states, florida, ohio and north carolina and find a couple of blue states to flip. iowa looks good. is it michigan? we have correspondents all over the campaign trail. we will begin in philadelphia where hillary clinton will be waking up this morning. that's where we find our kristin welker. philadelphia, what's this about? >> reporter: chuck, pennsylvania is a part of secretary clinton's firewall. in order to win here, in order to win the white house, she has to get large margins of african-american voters in urban areas like right here in philadelphia. that was on display during that katy perry concert here last night. clinton has made 16 stops to pennsylvania since the dnc. a lot of those stops aimed at energizing african-american voters. consider this.

black vote here in pennsylvania in 2012. clinton doesn't need to match that. she's got to get comparable numbers. it's in other battlegrounds like north carolina and ohio where she will be joined by lebron james. and to help her make her case, she has a million volunteers stretched all across the country helping to get out the vote. >> there you go. now let's go to wilmiwilmington north carolina, check in on katie tor. >> donald trump is visiting eight states in two days. they are taking a renewed interest in michigan where they say internal polling showed them in a dead heat with hillary clinton. why? they say their jobs message is cutting across all demographics in that state. in order for them to get to 270, they believe michigan is absolutely their best path. if they do win that state, they

where hillary clinton is currently polling in the lead. also, nevada and new hampshire. they are making a surprise visit to minnesota, a state that president obama won by eight points in 2012. but the campaign does concede that in order to win, they're going to have to find a blue state and turn it red. check? >> katy, thanks very much. now let's go to the swing state, perhaps the most important swing state of them all, florida. it's in orlando that we're going. we like to say on this show, florida, florida, florida. >> reporter: it looks like this year as well. early voting smashing all kinds of records. just over this weekend, the democrats have started outpacing the republicans. big reason, 200,000 more hispanic votes have been cast already this year than in all of 2012. a word of caution for hillary clinton. she's behind where barack obama was in 2012. that's why the president is coming here today, big puerto rican population.

because on election day, republicans tend to outvote the democrats. this is the last day of early voting here in florida. including most of the big population centers. make no mistake, chuck, looking like another heart-stopping election day in florida. >> sure does. thanks very much. finally, our final stop on the map this morning, it's actually usually first stop of any presidential candidate, it's in the great primary city of manchester, new who has been covering hillary clinton for decades. an andrea, what do you got? >> reporter: this is not the way hillary clinton wanted to finish up. her plan to end on a positive note got upended by the fbi letter, forcing her to fight back. for the past week, everywhere we have gone with her, she habs ben reminding voters of every thing donald trump has said. tomorrow night, the clinton campaign will take two minutes. they are paying for a commercial

they're hoping to reach 20 million people. it will be all about uplifting, inclusive america. they are making it as we speak. it's going to include that stronger america theme. first, of course, tonight she will be in new hampshire where voters famously are late deciders. clinton will be introduced by the gold star father who the campaign says represents the very best of america and president obama coming back here tomorrow. as we march towards election day, we can tell you that as of yesterday, nearly 40 million people have already voted. we expect the total early vote turnout to be 50 million by tuesday. there are strong indications this weekend the hispanic vote is up sharply in las vegas and along the critical i-4 corridor of florida. that would be very good news for hillary clinton. joining me now is the chairman of the clinton campaign, john podesta.

>> talk about the good news on hispanic turnout. but you are having struggles with african-american turnout. we have seen indications north carolina, georgia, ohio, michigan, that all that turnout among african-americans is down in the early vote. i will put up a north carolina stat here that shows it down almost 6% from the turnout in 2012. why do you think you are having trouble motivating afn- through the primaries, african-american voters came out for hillary clinton. we expect that again now. and we're working very hard to make sure that happens. she is campaigning across the country in african-american communities. we have had the president out for us. you know, you are comparing us against the first african-american president running for re-election. we think we can hit those numbers. the president is helping us do

coalition and a bigger coalition. you mentioned the historic hispanic turnout we're seeing in fl florida, in nevada, where we feel good. obviously, more work to do between now and tuesday. we have had college educated women voting in higher numbers, voting for her in higher numbers. asian americans voting disproportionately. so we're feeling very solid going into this last weeke of work to do. >> you brought up the president. i want to play for you a clip of an interview he did with reverend sharpton about motivating african-american voters to the polls. take a listen. >> michelle and i, we talk own the dinner table, we explain to our daughters, not everything is supposed to be inspiring. sometimes you just do what you have to do. one of the things you gotta do right now is to make sure to vote for hillary clinton. >> it's not a hope and change

president to come up with another rational other than not everything is supposed to be inspiring? >> look, we're on the ballot on tuesday on the ballot in these early votes is what kind of country we're going to be. as a president has crisscrossed the country, he laid that challenge to the voters on the line of what kind of country are we going to be. are we going to build pep uople? are we going to run a campaign run a campaign of inclusion and solving our problems and making the right investments for people as hillary clinton has proposed? she has done that all her life. that's what the cause of her life has been is to fight for family and children. and that's what we think that voters who are now i think with enthusiasm coming out and voting for her will do. chuck, we have a million volunteers. we did 7 million voter contacts yesterday alone.

demonstrate. >> what's happening in michigan? how concerned are you? we saw the iowa poll numbers. you are clearly behind in iowa. likely that's the one blue state for sure that trump is going to flip. michigan, obviously, you are taking it seriously by sending secretary clinton and the president up there. >> look, if we hold on to nevada, hold on to michigan, you know, then hillary clinton is going to be the next president of the united states. most people vote on so our schedule has been oriented to being in the early vote states in the earlier period of time. now we're going to michigan, to new hampshire, to pennsylvania where they do it the old-fashion way, everybody votes on election day. we feel like we got a lead in michigan. we want to hold on to it. we think we can do that. >> tim kaine yesterday in an interview said, people within the fbi are actively working to try to help the trump campaign.

to the trump campaign and that there are forces in the fbi that are actively working against your candidacy? >> look, i think what mr. comey did nine days ago was a mistake. i think it broke with precedent. i think it was criticized by democrats and republicans. including four -- i'm sorry, two former deputy attorney generals who served with him in the bush administration. i think it was a mistake. >> lead to resignation? >> i never questioned his motivation. i just said it was a mistake. it broke with precedent. there's a reason for the policy. it looked like that it was interfering in the election. i think the leaks that have been ongoing, which was what tim was referring to, is worrisome. i think the men and women of the fbi are doing a tremendous job out here across the country. but the leakers should shut up. >> let me ask you a final

i don't think anybody feels as if it being exposed the way your personal and private messages have been exposed. explain what this has been like. >> you mean on a personal level? >> yes, sir. >> i've got a pretty thick skin, chuck. what i have worried about is to make sure that this is an unprecedented situation where a foreign power hacked my e-mails as assange to dribble them out in order to maximize the damage to hillary and to maximize the help to donald trump, who has adopted essentially russian foreign policy and rejected bipartisan u.s. foreign policy. so it's kind of an unprecedented circumstance. look, my job is to make sure that we're doing what we need to do to make sure that those volunteers are on doors, on the

win this election. >> john foe dpodesta, campaign for the hillary clinton campaign, that's all the time i have. thanks for coming on. >> thanks, chuck. joining me now, from the other side, is former speaker of the house and a current donald trump supporter, newt gingrich. welcome back to "meet the p press." >> chuck, it's great to talk to you. >> let me start with reading from a memo you wrote on behalf of the rnc earlier this year. principles for planning the 2016 general election points were, speaker gingrich, under words and ideas matter were this, the wrong words cripple or kill. the right big idea or ideas expressed in clear and simple language with the right tone can win campaigns. if donald trump comes up short, is it because he violated those first two bullet points in your -- in what you sort of set out there, words matter sometimes? >> well, i think the reason trump is such a fascinating

encompass those points. he hurt his campaign at times by saying things unwise. at times he has been a historic figure. his use of large ideas, whether it's make america great again or drain the swamp, the speech he gave at gettysburg where he outlined item after item in his contract with the american voters, his proposal for a new deal for african-americans, which is more than any republican presidential candidate in my lifetime. so he's a funny paradox on the o brilliant marketers i have ever seen. on the other hand for a while, he was undercutting himself. if he had not done that, he would be ahead by ten or 15 points right now. as it is, he has had to make a comeback. go ahead. >> no, no, no. >> your turn. >> i am bemebemused about the s in hispanic turnout. could it be donald trump could lose -- to look back and say he

called -- when he insulted mexicans on that very first day? because it does seem -- at least so far -- that the evidence is that activated the hispanic vote. >> you know, look, the other side of that coin, chuck, is could it be that hillary clinton when she loses will look back and say, i shouldn't have been a serial liar, i shouldn't have totally abused national security and i shouldn't have used the state department office for personal corruption? i mean, she's got plenty of stuff to look back on if she loses. s she was the run who represented the incumbent president. she's the one who spent 46 years of her life trying to become president. now she's scurrying off to michigan. she didn't think it was in play. she's lost ohio in addition to iowa. that's two states that have flipped for sure. i think that she has a very long couple days here. remember, trump brought into this election -- i was at a book signing the other night in georgia. 90-year-old woman who had never voted in her lifetime. there are people trump is

>> do you think when you look back on this election that the lack of unity inside the republican party, how much of that has been a handicap to his election? i look at a place like new hampshire in particular where you don't even have the senate candidate kelly ayotte and the presidential candidate on the same page. 1,000 votes could flip new hampshire. >> that's exactly right. that's one of the real challenges that we faced all represented an outside grass-roots populism that was furious at the republican leadership. when this campaign began, 63% of all republicans said they did not like their leadership in washington. and those are the people who nominated trump. well, it turns out some of the folks in washington didn't particularly like having what is in effect an outsider populist hostile takeover of the party. i get that. some of them would rather have

the corruption continue rather than elect donald trump. i get that. the question for trump is, can he arouse enough voters to overcome these? my guess is he can. i think we're going to be shocked how relatively few people there are who care about the never trumpers. >> can i ask you quickly, you use the word let the corruption continue. have we been too loose with some words? i say that because -- >> no. >> look, there's actual corruption that is a crime and then there's sometimes politics. fair or not. do you worry we have let language get too loose? >> no, chuck. i worry -- with all due respect to you as a person. you you know we're pretty good friends. i worry the elite media has blindly refused to tell the truth. every foreign gift, foreign speech -- every one -- >> it's a big charge. >> it's the u.s. constitution.

nor their spouse can take money from foreigners. she has to be guilty of 70 or 100 counts just on that one charge. then you look at the people who came into the office -- by the way, the interesting thing about wikileaks is they showed us how corrupt the system was. she showed us people are being told you need to get them in because they're giving to the foundation. i think the real corruption is the lack of the media being willing to be honest about how much lawlessness >> now you have gotten me to my last sort of point here. i'm trying to figure out, november 9 -- what do we do as a country on november 9? it has been a rough election. i want to use your words. this is what you said in january of 2001, after another very contentious presidential election. you said the following. most americans do not find themselves actually alienated from their fellow americans or fearful if the other party wins

that was america 2001. do you believe that's the case in january of 2017? >> no. no. i think tragically, we have drifted into an environment where if hillary is elected, the criminal investigations will be endless. and if trump is elected, it twill be like madison, wisconsin, with scott walker. the opposition will hostile and so direct and so immediate that it will be a continuing fight over who controls the country. i think that we are in for a long, difficult couple of years. maybe a decade or more. the gap between those of us who are deeply offended by the dishonesty and corruption and the total lack of hon hesty on clinton team and on their side their defense of unions, which they have to defend, nirdi understand that, that will lead

there's a picture you painted there. >> i wish it wasn't true, chuck. >> i think everybody agrees on that. speaker gingrich, i appreciate you coming on the show. >> good to be with you. >> later, we will check in with our pollsters to see how sturdy this hillary clinton four-point lead really is. see who has the edge in the fight for the control of the senate. that's on a knife's edge as well. we will talk and have a continuing conversation there that we started with speaker gingrich. plus, you will hear from some on air folks that were familiar to you, been around this table throughout the season. we asked them to tell us what they are going to be watching for on election night. here is the first couple. >> right away, i'm going to watch for new hampshire, one of the first states we get results from. is there any sign of life for donald trump in what has become pretty blue. >> watch for arizona which used

thank you is what we say. s indicate but we mean so much more. we mean how can we help? we mean what can we do? we mean it's our turn. to do our part. to serve you, for all you've done to serve us.

welcome back. sundays don't get bigger than this. my panel is so excited, they're handicapping things. neither does our panel. we had to go super size. we went five this morning. call it our spinal tap final. >> i take that personally. >> there you go.

savannah guthrie, good to see you. nicolle wallace. the man who is always playing hard ball, mr. chris matthews and my pal from miami, jose diaz belart. welcome to all of you. grand >> let's not start there. >> it's john podesta questioning the fbi. newt gingrich talking about the next four years. >> i've been at this a fair amount of time. i have never seen the country so fractured. founding fathers said we the people in order to form a more perfect union. this campaign has been we the african-americans, we the

wealthy, we the people who don't know quite what to do. we're in tribal warfare here. that's not who we are. that's not what we can be. newt gingrich is right, we're in for a very difficult time whoever wins that. there are so many things that have not been addressed in this campaign. >> it's too long. >> most of all, what you see is everything happens at warp speed. bret baier who is a respectable reporter at fox the other day said he evidence about to indict here. turns out not to be true. doesn't make a difference whether it's true, it's in the minds of the voters at this point. that's not a way to run a democracy. >> let's talk about the last two days of the democracy and what's happening here. explain the trump strategy. they're all over the map. >> you keep putting it up -- i was going to say black and white but it's in red and blue. they can run the table. they can win the battleground states which in a normal year

states and flip a deep blue state other than iowa to win. i think it's very trump-like to say the battleground states will take care of themselves. he is concentrating his time in the state it would take to win. >> pennsylvania, chris? >> i was in the democratic city committee meeting of the ward leaders friday noon. they let me in. they don't usually do that. that's when they hand out the street money. it's real. 200 bucks for voting division. these guys are >> what's it used for? >> it's all professional. it's legal. you pay people to go out door to door starting at 11:00 in the morning. you roust them out of the house. you say, you have voted? go back and forth. you roust them again. you make sure in these congested all democratic districts where everybody is a democrat, they all vote. you turn in the plurality of 450,000 votes coming out of the city. with the suburbs being basically 50/50, more pro hillary this time, because of professional

it's very professional. i don't know what trump is thinking about. i asked brady the boss of the city, what is he talking about he is going to carry pennsylvania? he is -- it's his own mind. it's not going to happen. i think it's the firewall pennsylvania once again. >> if the african-american vote is not animated, has the latino turnout, jose, in florida made up for that gap? >> i tell you, chuck, if hillary clinton wins this campaign, i wouldn't be surprised if she renames the states the way should be said. florida, colorado, nevada, carolina. every one of those -- >> that's what people are afraid of. >> donald trump's america is not happy. >> the latino community comes out to stand up against something instead of for something. but against donald trump. and if she wins, it may be very much because of that 27 million possible latino voters. >> nobody can say they didn't see this coming.

they wrote a document. it was supposed to be the ghost of christmas past, the ghost of election past, what went wrong in 2012. if she wins on tuesday night, is it going to be because of the fastest growing demographic, hispanics, because of the gender that out votes, women. ? it will not be a shocker. it won't by something republicans didn't see coming. >> what you said to speaker gingrich was right. as a guy who is an expert brander, did he brand himself as so anti-mexican by rapists and murderers when he came down the escalator open day one? that will be what we have to unpack in the aftermoath. >> since that time, he has not been on telemundo. he has not been -- we asked him. >> you have never interviewed him? >> a couple of weeks after that announcement. then i was thrown out of a press conference he had . >> what we're seeing is donald trump, the one we have known in

including judgment. he has mistaken those big crowds that gets as he got last night, 10, 15, 25,000 people for how you run a general election. he thinks by showing up he is going to get people who are going to show up there at his rally. but that's 25,000. it's not 2 million he needs in every state. he is mistaken about what it takes to win. >> whoever wants to jump in on this question is this. we're talking about trump and him coming up short. clinton campaign is not just a little nervous, they're a lot nervous here. should they be? >> they're in michigan. the explanation is that no one voted. they need to turn out the vote. there's no -- >> it's true. >> it's true but there's an o offensive case to make. >> it's a fair question. somebody with the advantages she came in having in the sense of she's outspending two to one on the air. she's got a map that favors her from the get go. as we mentioned, a candidate who has in some ways alienated two of the biggest demographic groups.

she keeping it this close? that's not a flattering question for her. >> it's a good question to end on. you know who might have those an answers? our pollsters. we will get the insider look. the nbc/wall street journal poll. >> if donald trump gets a larger margin in georgia than is expected, you will see this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. when i have a headache,

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we are back. earlier we revealed the top lines of our poll which showed hillary clinton ahead of donald trump. there's more behind those numbers. we thought we wou from the people that do this poll all the time for us, our pollsters. bill and fred. fred, i will start with you. clinton is winning. i will let team blue begin. how durable is this four-point lead? >> it's pretty durable. the different between the poll we conducted a couple weeks ago and now is that trump made up ground with groups he needed to make up ground with. republicans, white non-college

but to me, the most important number for the clinton campaign and why i think her lead is durable is if a candidate in politics is having momentum, they should be winning with independents. our poll he's losing by six points. >> that's actually shocking, bill. over the last three elections, the challenger has carried independents. it's not always meant victory. the challenger has carried independents. that has to be a flashing yellow sign. what should give trump hope? >> what gives trump hope is we have a large chunk of people who are not decided. that's large. it's almost 8, 9, 10%. they are break even to lean republican in terms of their house preference. this race could tighten. however, in all of our data, we still have donald trump losing with white college voters. if you are going to lose latinos, you cannot win without -- >> let me put up these numbers. college educated versus non-college educated whites. this divide may be one of the

men, trump is only winning by a point. among non-college educated white men, he is winning by almost 40 points. fred? >> the pundits and analysts talk about the ceiling for clinton. there's a ceiling for trump, too. i think one of the failures of his candidacy if he loses on tuesday is the inability not just to get minorities but to get these white educated voters that bill is talking about. >> let me ask you this. how much of an impact -- i'm going -- what was an important factor in deciding the vote here on clinton? clinton's use of her private server. it was 58%. it does seem as if the issues with trump were more important to voters, trump's temperament, 76% said it was important and trump on women. his negatives outweighing her neg negatives. is that an explanation for the lead? >> we have to remember that we have two candidates of the highest negatives ever since we have had polling in the 1930s. we would all be talking about

negatives except for donald trump. but still in campaigns as much as these candidates are not liked, the person with the slightly higher negative tends to win in our nbc/wall street journal poll. that gives an edge to secretary clinton. >> we did word clouds. we asked the first couple of days of polling -- this is not from all 1 th,000 responders. we asked trump voters you think about hillary clinton? we asked clinton voters what they think of trump. of clinton in this word cloud. liar, dishonest, crooked, corrupt. fred, here is what clinton voters think of trump. put that up. sexist, racist. a crook and a racist. how is america coming together? >> chuck, those are word clouds. bill and i went through the verbatims. >> those were word clouds we could air. i'm not -- you are right. i read through these. i couldn't believe the four

if i had hair. i think the previous segments there's an election and a winner. the question on wednesday and going forward is what does the other side do and do we come together as a country. i think that's a big x factor. >> this is horrifying. >> it is horrifying. we also asked the question how comfortable and are you ready to accept this person as your president. we asked that question 2000. a week or ten days after that election was still unresolved. 60% plus of americans said, okay, i will do that. george bush, okay, i will do that. here today, hillary clinton is barely break even. and donald trump is a negative. on wednesday morning, we're not going to have a grace period. there won't by a little rise. there's going to be two people that this country is very uncomfortable with as president. >> half the country will think we either elected a crook or a racist. unbelievable. bill, fred, we keep ending every segment so upbeat. appreciate it.

will control the senate? could be a photo finish tuesday. or wednesday. or thursday. or december. stay with us. >> north carolina. north carolina is a state that has flipped and flopped. if it goes for hillary clinton it's an east coast state, that will be an early night call.

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