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tv   Mad Money  NBC  December 12, 2015 3:08am-4:00am CST

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>> caller: thank you. i have a millennial son who has a little of apple and a little bit of facebook. he wanted to know about microsoft and salesforce or netflix and comcast combo. it's something we do together. >> i'm glad you say millennial. a millennial person will be more interested in sales force. it's a very high growth company that doesn't pay a d didend. microsoft is a less growing company, but very good, that does pay a dividend. the younger person should be drawn to sales force. the older person should be drawn to microsoft because it has a little more capital appreciation and preservation.ti that's the way i want to split the difference. for him, it's crm. listen, i know it isisough out there. today was really ugly. i had a hard day. i don't know about you. even though it was kind of nice out.aybo but i am here to help.
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some gains. remember, we were up big yesterday, raising some cash. we're still very close to the highs. don't say i didn't tell you at the top if you're just a couple of percent away.yo tonight i'm going to the mattress. not rely. stay tunun. any of the purveyors of the plush, we'll see if they're worth owning. then, a meal ticket out of china's middle class. is yesterday's spinoff good news? plus two of corporate america'a' oldest institutions and they just had a merger. don't miss my take on dowdupont. today's news. and you know what i suggest you do? stick with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." a follow @jijiramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.
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head to madmoney.cnbc.com. i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piecec ininy asthma treatment. once-daily breo prevents asthma symptoms. breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled$ on a long-rm asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. breo won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. breo opens up airways to help improve breathing for a full 24 hours. breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of deathth from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in children and adolescents. breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a long-term asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. once your r thma is well controlled, your doctor will decide if you can stop breo and prescribe a different asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. do not take breo more than prescribed. see your doctor if your asthma
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jeez, when you only sleep three hours a night, you take it when you can get it. after today's vicious beat down, it's worth remembering that not every stock that went lower today actually deserved to get hammered like it did. there are enty of companies doing whatever they can to take advantage to control their destiny. you should buy stocks and the market throws a gigantic sale like it did today and like i expect it to do on monday. mattress firm, down $2.68 today. who took my lovey blanket? anyway, back on november 30th, we learned mattress firm, the number one mattress retailer in n
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sleepies, that will make it the only coast to coast, border to border mattress chain in the country. not only does this deal expand mattress firm's footprint, giving them more than 3500 stories, but it gives the company difficult to penetrate markets until the northeast that can be extremely lucrative. the stock has fallen $23 from its two-week high back in march. should you view this as an opportunity to buy it on the cheap? or are there real issues holding the company back because it should give you you pause? this one is a bit of a shootout. let's go to the mattresses. all right, it's somethinini alwaysysanted to say on television, albeit not exactly in this context. the mattress industry is incredibly fragmented.
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sleepy's was second. the average cash payback period for opening a new location is less than a year. you can get your money back in a year. i've done a bunch of businesses. that's really quick. even before the sleepy's deal, the company had a game plan to grow its business organically and through acquisitions. organically is the real growth. mattress c cpanies have been taking more and more shares. consumers demand ever greater expertise when they go mattress shopping. however, this has not been a particularly good period for mattress firm. think about home depot. when the company reported second
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missed on both the top and the bottom. mattress firm same store sales increased. these results and especially the weak guidance were so disheartening that mattress firm's stock weneninto a nose dive. that caught my eye and said something's wrong here. since then the stock has picked up some momentum, in part becacae mattress firm had an interest if not revelatory meeting where they laid out a growth plan. the compananhighlighted their omni channel and direct to consumer reference. the hand holding caused the stock to jump. after the analyst day, the next big development came on november 30th, whenenattress firm announced a landmark acquisition of sleepy's, which has locations in 17 states.
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close in the second half of next year. this takeover is less about cost savings and more about scale. by snapping up sleepy's, mattress firm is establishing itself as a nationwide bedding retailer. the combined company will be able to squeeze more value out of its distribution networks and its ad c cpaigns, plus they'llll have more bargaining power with suppliers and with pricing. on top of that, the buying to p!y down the $740 milliln it's taking on in cheap debt to bubusleepy's. all that said, there are concerns about the sleepy's deal. the implied price of $780
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price for sleepy's. some people are worried that mattress firm is paying for a company that's basically been stagnant despite pretty strong growth in the mattress business. i've seen analysts fret that mattress firm is taking on t t much leverage. at the close of the transaction the company will have debt to ebitda ratio of 4, which doesn't leave a lot of room for error. they're still going to have ormous interest paymymts to me. plus mattress companies have a long history of failure. however, i think many of these worries are being blown out of proportion. mattress firm has a long history of making acquisitions like this one.e. 2012, they bought mattress giant. last year they acquired mattress discounters. mattress kgs, bed mart, sleep train.
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country. we like that. in short, mattress firm has a to know ton of experience as a consolator. sleepy's has been extremely successful in urban areas. at theheame time that we learned about the sleepy's deal, mattress firm preannounced its third quarter results. this time the company beat wall street's earnings estimates, up 3.8%. when mattress firm went on to report full results this past monday, company management maintained their full year guidance as they expect sales toto dececerate in the next quarter. put it all together and there's a lot to like about mattress firm. here is a company that just started getting its act together. and one you might want to look
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i'm trying to give you a full list this week of what could get hurtrt the stock market doesn't have enough stocks that are plays on rising household formation. the optimal situation would be if mattress firm cut down its dell. a deal of stock would be good. it would give you a chance to buy at a discount. if you want to speculate on a nice mattress retailer then you have my bless to go buy mattress firm. i think the bull case is stronger than the bearish one. but keep in mind, it is a legit bear case. not to mention there's an army of short sellers betting against the stock because of its uneven performance and higher leverage. i think the bulls will win out. you should still be careful and only buy mattress firm in akness, because it would be
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the acquisition with sleepy's. with all the moneyt's borrowed to make the transaction, that truly would be disastrous. that's why i need my lovey blanket in case they don't issue that equity that i want. there's so much more "mad money" ahead. it could be a spinoff in yum. could it be a nasty treat for shareholders? then there are two giants of american industry, and today they decided to tie the knot. what's next for dupont and dow? i'm revealing. plus investors barred from accessing their money, the sec standing on the sidelines. it's not the latest hollywood feature. it's happening right now. i'll tell you why it's going to
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here's a question for you. what's happening with yum brands? the global fast food brand has untouchable, given the company's huge e eosure to china wherere they've been plagued by the avian influence, food safety concerns, and worries about the overall strength of the chinese economy and the consumer. yum finally decided to take some tion, announcing it's going to spin off its business, creating two separate businesses, yum china, and yum brands which will
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latete the macro weakness over there along with operating concerns have been dragging down the rest of the company. although if the chinese market were to come roaring back, then yum china would let you participate directly in the upside. when yum first announced the china spinoff, we learned that yum china a uld have exclusive rights to kfc and pizza hut in the people's republic, growing its locations from 69 to up to 20,000 down the road. the global is to create a spinoff that will serve the chinese consumer. at the s se time, owning this stock would be a bet on kfc, pizza hut and taco bell. at long last the rest of the chinese business. over time it plans to be a
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many of its own restaurants. this slower growth, higher margin company also plans to return to shareholders. we like that business model very much. yum just hosted an incredibly important analysts meeting have we finally got some details about the spinoff plan which management expects will be finished by the end of next year. what did they y yesterday? let's starwith what we learned about the future of yum brands once they get rid of china. it will be a more focused, high margin, i'll call it a steady eddie global franchise plan. yum is targeting 13% annl earnings growth along with a 2% dividend someone's the separation goes through. the non-china part of yum will be 96% franchise, oh, my god, a cash machine. in short, the post-breakup yum brands will be exactly the kind
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stock that i'm sure many of you would like a piece of. look what happened with mcdold's when it got sloand steady. this business will have a very different profile after the spinoff. yum china is going to be a much higher risk, faster growing company y an the remaining yumum brands. the chinese company plans to generate 15% earnings growth annually after the separation with no external debt, a massive amount of free cash flow. management believes yum china will have enough cash to pay a significant buyback. yum is forecasting 5 and 6% annual salesesrowth in china and 3 to 5% margin improvement. put it all together, that's 15% earnings growth. that seems doable, although it certainly hasn't been doing that lately.
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through the most crucial pieces of information they gave us. for starters, november sales numbers for yum's china business, sales declined by 3%, driven by a brutal 9% stepdown at pizza hut. it hurt the stock particularly since wall street was expecting a 3% gain. management reiterated their preference for growth in china given the strength of kfc. my view? yum china still has a lot of work to do to stabilize its comps. for now, they're no longer in a tailspin. could be some easy comparisons ahead. yum brands wants its chinese business to flourish. of course there's stilila year go before the breakak goes into effect. yesterday yum told us it plans to return $6.2 billion to shareholders.
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pro-shareholder. one company will be trying to feed the other. how is china doing and what does yum expect going forward? pizza hut yum blames on the market. kfc continins the gradual rebound. this was once a red-hot reason to own yum, kfc china. it's very difficult to predict the actual course of the chinese consumer economy. i think this could be a good story if yum china could figure out what's ailing its chains. the new ceo appears to be focused on making the menus and operations easier for the customers to interact with. but many analysts worry the strategy might be too aggressive and numbers might have to come down. on the other hand, yum outlined five issues they believe could help them turn around pizza hut.
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pizzzzhut value proposition. right now the chinese view this as some kind of high end fancy dining play. that's definitely what yum is going for. they plan to improve thehe in-store experience and roll out better digital technology. personally i find some aspects of the turnaround plan less than encouraging, especially the focus on value. it suggests that yum china might sacrifice price to go boost traffic. outside of china, pizza hut is bringing in its best numbers in years. plus we know taco bell, which has nohinese presence whatsoever, is currently on fire. that's something yum believes they can keep doing for many yeyrs to come. changing advertising, people like it. we've got a lot of promises out of yum at yesterday's investors' meeting. while the company answered many of the biggest questions, right now the story comes down to the company's ability to execute. that's going to o difficult to
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before the spinoff happens. let's see if yum can turn around its chinese business. otherwise i would rather ignore yum china and stick with the stub of yum brands when the breakup happens. but again, we've got a lot of time to make up our minds before we do. however i salute yum's management for taking these bull actions to bring out value at a time when the market is not satisfied with business as usual. if you can get the stock below the $71.31 they were at today, i think it's worth it for the ride. elise in new york. >> caller: hello, mr. cramer. can you advise me if i should keep wmart? i've had it for 35 years. >> this is a very tough question. if you've had it for 35 years, you have a b tax basis. i don't want you t tpay taxes. i think it will take two years to turn.
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to turn it. if you can hold it, take the 3% yield and sit on it, i think it will be fine. i don't expect anything good before then. it will take too long. can yum execute? time will tell. let's see if it can turn around its chinese busy. otherwise but with the stub of yum brands when you get it. much more "mad money" ahead. it's a $130 million deal. don't miss my take on the dowdupont merger. it's kind of like a script out of a hollywood blockbuster.
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here's a prediction. eventually we'll look back at today and think,ow, how did we not take advantage of the weakness in the stock market to buy dodochemical or dupont after the two chemical giants announced their merger deal? we'll be kicking ourselves that we missed the opportunity. i know there's plenty wrong with the stock market right now. let's go through it again, because you knkn i'm very cautious. we have ever-declining prices including oil which put pressure
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this week with a disastrous cut by kinder morgan and the shocking decision by a large mutual fund manager to bar sales of a high yield fund because there was no liquidity to meet redemptions. every industry that i follow is weaker than it was six months ago. we know that the rest of the world is slowing. the stock market is now doing quite pooror. i've become less bullish about stocks. as i've repeatedly said, once the right hikes begin, you can't like it as much as you did before. or to put it another day, this was a bad day to announce the merger of dow and dupont. who wants a worldwide chemical company in a fed slowdown? i would totally agree if i didn't have so much faith in the people doing the deal. the ceo of dow chemical has been rking like a dog to get his company out of the chemica@
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little value added. meanwhile, he's cut out a gigantic amount of waste, in kind of a brilliant way. lowered the cost of the raw feedstock needed for plastic. that's natural gas or methane or propane, while buying back a huge amoununof stock. and offering a bountiful dividend, allowing the stock to rally. dupont too has a ceo we've watched for some time and applauded for his insistence on endless value creation. ed bream was appointed ceo of the company. he sacrificed dupont's history of autonomy. we like bream because we believe in breaking up companies to create value. he created more value when he broke up tyco than anyther ceo.
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do the deal. that's pretty extraordinary. what makes mlike this merger on the facts and the ndamentals? i like the three different companies that they intend to create. they'll give you an agricultural chemicals company, a material sciences company and a specialty products company. each of these busisisses will be a leader in its respective industry. thth$19 billion agricultltal company offers the most comprehensive portfolio in the business. management specifically pointed out the seeds and crop protection segments hand in
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monsanto. before this deal, it was being pulled down by its agricultural business. when the commodities gain strength, it will be t stock worth owning in the segment. the $50 billion material sciences business combines technology offerings that can provide solutions for customers in packaging, construction, goods marketu. dow's plastics and infrastructure business, that's really the old core dow, dovetail perfectly. finally, the specialty products is my favorite. they got electronic materials from dow, dupont's industrial bioscience, nutritional, health, and safety offerings. enzymes that will give you a company that looks a lot like
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the combined entity, dowdupont, how creative is that, did they flip a coin? anyway, they intend to unlock $30 billion of value with the establishment of these three separate companies. i don't even doubt that figure, nsidering that both ceos have amazing records of creating wealth for shareholders. it's not enough to shuffle the deck of the two companies. they're going to cut costs and bring out synergies. those are overused words, but there's a ton of overlap between the two businesses. the ceos can choose which plants to open and which to close, and there will be a ton thth they close, sorry for the works but it will boost the bottom line. i thinthe savings will be even bigger than $3 billion. on a management level, bream is
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two companies. it will most likely take several years to pull off. there's no slam dunk here when it comes to antitrust issues. combining the agricultural business does eliminated some competition. you'll have to wait for a long time to see the fruits of the measure. we've decicid to hold on to dow for the travel trust, because you're being paid to wait, with this yield. while i'm atatt, i want to salute nelson peltz for his persistence in making something happen here. earlier he rebuffed the dupont board after a bitter proxy fight. the stock fell 20 points instantly. he urged viewers to stick with dupont, because he wasn't giving up on pressuring management for
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i said, stay the course, because peltz has the best track record of any activist we could find. he never wavered. dupont stock's dividends are all the way back to where it was. the bottom line, i say congratulations to all involved who put this deal together. so sorry that the stock market couldn't give you more of an instant reward for your efforts. we have a not so hot tape right now, not much working. but one day, dowdupont will seem like a pretty good darned idea. just don't let that day be when the stock is up substantially from this nasty session where the deal was revealed. "mad money" is back after the break. red 97! set! red 97! did you say 97? yes. you know, that reminds me of geico's 97% customer sasasfaction rating.
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>> it is time. it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sese. when y y hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? >> what do you think about nei? >> i say buy. bud in ohio. >> caller: how about regal entertainment group? >> i like the yield. i think it's okay. the whole slate hasn't been that good for movies. how about scott in michigan? >> calr: hi, mr. cramer. buy, sell, or hold, heartland
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>> i think it's got a lot of good things to be said. rachel in florida. >> caller: i am calling about chrysler with the impending -- >> not recommending any oil stks, too risky. dennis? >> caller: northern american tank. >> tankers are all filled, i really like it. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lilitning round is s snsored by td ameritrade. >> i'm in do you dubai. don't bother me, i'm in dubai.
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in the old days. >> that's what i think in the end -- wow. >> they needomebody right here. that's it! i'm a buyer of yahoo!! that's what it was, david. this rubbermaid merger, i like it, it would allow these two companies to bargain better withth the walmarts. the walmarts are always trying to wrest the marginal profit away from cocoanies like these. if they get together, it would be a very successful mix. did that not work well or what?
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the bond market speaks softly but carries a gigantic stick. one of the things i've learned in my many years of investing is you always have to keep one eye on the credit markets on how
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you need to know about issues involving solvency and liquidity. you need to access the debt markets raise capital. i always point out these risks to y y because i myself haha been blindsided by just focusing on equities many times in my life, and not keeping my ear to the ground of the bond market. well, this is one of those days when my ears are burning with concern because of the troubles at a high yield bond fund run by third avenue management llc. this firm has decided to bar investors from getting their money from its focused credit fund because they can't meet their demands to give cash back in any orderly way. when they try to sell the bonds they own, they're destroying the very market for these bonds because there are no real buyers who want to sell. how disconcerting this move is. people at money mutual funds
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get it at a moment's notice. that's what a mutual money fund is. if there's no liquidity in the investments themselves, i think the whole notion of the mutual fund concept is going to be called into question by this one firmrm position. third avenue management is going to sell them over time in order to return your money. but who knows how much will be left versus s at you thought you d in the fund by theheime that liquidation is over. third avenue did not contact the sec before it banned redemptions, according to the "wall street journal," because it needed to act fast. what is this, a run? that is unprecedented and alarming. the implications of the fed's decision are wide ranging. yesterday i told you to get out of emerging market debt, high risk energy debt that's junk, because of the problem thing price of oil. i wasn't broad enough.
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read about third avenue's decisions, and they start making withdrawals. i've looked at recent descriptions and many of their investments seem pretty unattractive, and i am being very kind by saying that, and they were very risky. that's not the point. the point is that thmarket for high yield debt has so little liquidity right now that it's worrisome for those e o own any kind of open-ended fund with this kind of junk in it. normally a fund would go to brokers and ask for pieces of paper. but brokers are no longer willing to buy b bds from funds like these because they fear violating the dodd-frank legislation. meanwhile, as liquidity has drained or dried up, the size of the pool of assets like these has gotten bigger and bigger, growing like a weed. there's perhs as much as $1.4 trillion of this high yield junk
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because of the gootimes coming out of the great recession, and the demand for instruments with bonds because the return is so meager there. this is that reach for yield play that i always tell you to avoid. third avenen's tactics will shock many clients into action this weekend. all at once, on monday, to avoid further losses in a market that's been weak for ages. that's what's going to happen. it's going to cause a t of stress in the system. and it will impact stocks negatively. as we saw today, that was behind a lot of this. once again, i'm going to alert you to my more negative stance on all markets. this tco shall pass. but call me distrereed by the actions of this distressed debt fund. i would like to think it's a one-off development and it w't happeno other funds. but we're already hearing about another fund, a hedge fund, stone line capitit. mutual funds are supposed to let you out immediately. next week could go very rocky
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managers try to flee them.m. with the federal reserve poised to raise rates, it will only exacerbate the problem. stick with cramer. i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn
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mutual funds are inviolate. which is why i'm urging some caution here ahead of the fed meeting. this is a more important story than the fed. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer.
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