>> dickerson: today on "face the nation" as isis promises more terror president says he will destroy them. paris continues to paralyze the country as authorities helicopter for a suspect in last week's attacks on paris. the world races for possibility of more. president obama meanwhile ratchets up his rhetoric vowing to defeat isis. >> we will destroy them. they're a bunch of killers. with good social media. >> dickerson: we'll cover it all with voices from capitol hill including top democrat on the senate intelligence committee dianne feinstein. republican chairman of the house of homeland security michael mccaul. president's special envoy to the coalition, brett mcgurk and senator rand paul. plus we'll hear from panel of experts and we'll have our cbs news battleground tracker poll

that shows the ground is shifting in the republican field after the terror attacks. all ahead on "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs good morning, welcome to face the make i'm john dickerson we have lot of ground to cover today we begin with cbs news correspondent elizabeth palmer in paris. >> in the belgian capital things are eerily quiet. they have shut the subway, cancelled public gatherings like football games and concerts. some of islam the young terrorist suspect who escaped after the paris attack was thought to be in the area possibly wearing a suicide vest. not only him the belgian police think there are eight and ten other young men who want to carry out attacks similar to the ones we saw here in paris. in paris, life is gradually getting back to normal although attacks are possible.ther the tension went up suddenly on friday when gunmen invaded the

radisson hotel in mali a former french capital. those gunmen are radical islamists but not affiliated with isis. if isis in sites of the french government and president wants to put together an international alliance to destroy isis which would include not only russia but also the united states. he's also leaning very heavily on european government to clean up their immigration control and tighten surveillance. we know from the greeks at least two of the terrorists from the paris attacks came in to the european union through the greek island with that flood of migrants. the surveillance of these young men coming back to europe from fighting with the islamic state in syria has been very, very lack. francois hollande wants a ssenger list to be started up something like the united states

established after 9/11 which would keep a list of everybody coming in and out of the 26 member country zones and that data would be kept on file for at least a year. >> dickerson: thanks, liz. we go now to malaysia our foreign affairs correspondent margaret brennan who is traveling with the president. >> in his concluding press conference here in kuala lumpur, president obama tried to calm americans vowed not to allow terrorism to become the new normal. >> we do not succumb to fear. that's the primary power that these terrorists have over us. most powerful tool we have to fight isis, is to say, that we're not afraid. >> the president said actions like attempts to block refugees from settling in the u.s., an idea that is being go thought of is betrayal of american values.

he downplayed isis' ranks, yet the president still called on other countries to join in the military coalition said he directly appeals to russia's vladimir putin to start airstrikes against isis rather than the u.s.-backed rebels in syria. >> it would be helpful if russia a directs his attention towards isis, i think isil claiming responsibility for bringing down their plane, there is an increasing awareness on the part of president putin that isil poses a greater threat to them than anything else in the region. >> but that is an unlikely alliance because two countries back competing sides in the syrian civil war. on tuesday president obama will meet with president of france, country that has in sense filed its role in the airstrikes. john? >> dickerson: margaret, thank you. earlier we spoke with the top

democrat on the senate intelligence committee, dianne feinstein. we asked her to give us her thoughts about the president saying his strategy against isis was the right one. >> couple of days ago, secretary of state john kerry, former colleague of ours, addressed the senate intelligence committee and virtually every member was there and what he put forward i think was a more comprehensive sense of what the strategy is. for the first time i really learned the number of nation, is that have signed on to the vien agreement, the basic principles of the agreement. and that's involving both iran and russia. i think that is very crucial. the point theres because the central point of all of this is our side. has got to go but the question is, how and where and over what period of time.

because in the meantime, he's putting out barrel bombs with chemical weapons on his people, killed 250,000 people. russia is his great protector built russia now sees the challenge from dash or isis or isil. so, my problem with that is you need a time agreement. >> dickerson: you had been skeptical of the administration approach. did the briefing from sector to kerry make you think that that approach is sufficient to the job at the moment? >> i don't think the approach is sufficient to the job. i think they are general principles, the general principles in terms of the administration strategy, too, but i'm concerned that we don't have the time. and we don't have years. we need to be aggressive now because isil is a quasi state. isil has 30,000 fighters, it's

got a civil infrastructure, it's got funding. it's spreading in other countries, it's a big, big problem. now what you see i think in other places is a competition developing from other terrorist organizations. but isil is something a part. it's enormously strong it has to be dealt with in a very strong manner. >> you mentioned the time component. does that suggest administration has been too cautious or lacks of a sense of urgency. >> what i'm saying this has gone on too long now. and it has not gotten better. it's gotten worse. there may be some land held by isil in iraq and syria, that's been taken back. but for all of that, there's much more they have gained in other countries. two attacks in tu near sha.

apps libya, take over. the sinai it goes on and on. i think we need a specific larger special operations plan, group of 50 is fine for what they're doing so far but it's not going to solve the problem. and i think getting at one not only able to get at the government but change it. move isil out. that's where the head of the snake, so to speak, has to be cut off. but it's in many other places, too. we don't have a lot of time, there are needless steps, we have over a million people that are refugees that are trying to save their families, trying to run from it.

>> dickerson: do you believe intelligence community has the kind of tools it needs to track the threats? >> i i can say this. director and i think john brennan would agree that the achilles heel in the internet is encryption. because there are now -- it's a black web. and there's no way of piercing it. even in commercial products, play station, john, which our kids use, if the two ends communicate that's incrypted. terrorists could use play station to be able to communicate and there's nothing that can be done about it. >> dickerson: the tech community says if you try to do something, develop a back door that law enforcement could use, that that would open up all kinds of other communication with financial transactions, other sensitive information would then be at

risk if what you're talking about would be put into place? >> no, i don't think so. i think with the court order, with good justification all of that can be prevented. it can be prevented in europe, because europe has been a major driver for more encryption. and i think they are now seeing the results and i think, you know, i had visited with all of the general counsels of the tech companies just to try to ask them to take bomb-building recipes off the internet. recipes that had been tested and we know can explode a plane. directions, where to sit on the plane to blow it up. we know there are bombs that can go through magnetometers to put that information out on the internet is terrible. and i sort of got, well, pass a

law. so, we may just have to do that? but i am hopeful that the companies, most of whom are constituents, hot most, but many, will understand what we're facing. and we're not crying wolf. there's good reason for this. and people are dying all over the world. and i think the sinai russian airliner is a classic example of a bomb that got on a plane, that blew up that plane. >> dickerson: senator feinstein, thanks so much for being with us. >> thank you, john. dickerson: with us now from austin, texass house homeland security chairman michael mccaul. i want to start with the isis threats to both new york and washington, threats that have been made but the fbi says there's no credible evidence do you agree with that assessment? >> we don't have any specific credible evidence of plot underway. in the homeland we've arrested

over 70 isis followers over the last year, we have a thousand investigations in all 50 states that gives you magnitude of what the fbi and homeland officials are looking at. in new york and washington are the top two targets, i talked to nypd they have computer program that took 3,000 cops through that, they are ramp up security in both scene and unscene ways and very visible way, also, to provide deterrence on the street. as we go into the thanksgiving holiday. >> dickerson: i want to ask you about this expression, no credible threat. how confident should americans be when they hear that? in paris presumably last thursday there was no credible evidence or they would have acted on it. would what does that mean in today's terror environment? >> well, it's an old tone of art. but i will tell you, i agree with senator feinstein, i think the biggest threat today is the

idea that terrorists can communicate in dark space, dark platforms, we can't see what they're saying. how did the paris attack very complex, sophisticated, coordinated attacks in involving eight attacks and wide conspiracy of others how did that go under the radar? only rational explanation i have that they were using these dark platforms in dark space to communicate. even if we have court order we can't see. if you can't see what they're saying very difficult to stop it. while homeland security officials consider specific credible threat i think you need to factor in that analysis that there may be plots underway, communications underway that we just quite frankly can't see. that's one of the biggest challenges that we face right now. >> dickerson: seems like that is a weaker assurance than it used to be in the past. just following up on these dark spaces, is there any evidence that encryption was used?

just supposition, right? or have you seen any evidence to suggest these encrypted communications actually were used in the paris attack? >> i think there are strong indicators that they d. that's precisely why nothing was picked up. there was -- there were some warning about a general plot. these guys were talking to each other on their iphones, in my judgment they were talking in the dark space. that is how they pulled it off without detection. that's going to be the real challenge in the homeland how do you -- we know they're talking from morocco to people in paris and belgium also in united states. we've caught communications where they talk to people in new york and in dc and quite frankly everywhere. we have the 4th of july in the chattanooga case which are good examples. >> dickerson: let me ask you about refugees. president obama said this morning that refugees, quote, who end up in the united states

are the most vetted, scrutinized, thoroughly investigated individuals that ever arrive on american shores. there's a lot of talk about refugees, are they the real problem in terms of this coming into the united states? >> there are two prongs, the foreign fighter we've had 5,000 europeans with western passports go into the countries, we need to deal with that. hundreds of americans who have traveled and come back. each of these could be ticking time bombs then we have radicalization over the internet as you and i have talked about, lastly we have the syrian refugee crisis. i take isis at its word when it says we want to exploit the refugee programs to infiltrate the west. we know one, possibly two of these attackers in paris actually came through refugee program. so that's why congress we said, let's put a break on this until we have assurances and confidence we can properly vet and do background checks. because our top national

security officials the fbi director or secretary of homeland security, both currently and publicly in testimony before my committee they expressed their concerns and warnings about this program. so, i take that seriously. we introduced this legislation to put a hold on it until we have assurances we can properly vet and do background checks have them certify so they're responsible and accountable that there's no terrorists coming into the country. >> dickerson: we have 15 seconds left. there's some talk about monitoring mosques, what is your feeling about that? >> goes back to my old days, very sensitive endeavor, approvals at the highest level. i think we have to be involved in the muslim community with outreach programs to identify the signs of radicalization to stop them just like the boston bomber who got kicked out of his mosque for being too radical. we didn't know about that, it would have been nice to have

known. >> dickerson: we'll be back in a minute. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you.

>> dickerson: we're back with brett mcgurk, special presidential envoy to the global coalition to conquer isil. the united states at war with isis? >> john, absolutely we're at war with isis, it's a war that we're not going to relent. but it's not just united states that's at war with isis has to be entire international community. we have coalition ever 65 members that are coordinating members. cutting offer the finances, contesting militarily to the ground. and secure just on friday, that this is unprecedented global threat. we have to work together as a coalition, and we're going to do all that we can to take back their territory, to kill the leaders, to cut off the finances, also to destroy the global networks that are feeding foreign fighters. >> dickerson: legal me ask you

about senator feinstein's credit tim, not her alone, it's not going to leave fast engh. >> well, those of us working on this we're not going to be satisfied until we destroy this organization. we've had to do some things over the last year to set the conditions for us to accelerate the efforts. for example, just over last two weeks we had simultaneous operations in syria and iraq. with kurdish and air forces to cut off the main supply route that isil these are very successful operations. our special forces going into northern syria the mission to organize the forces on the ground, broad coalition, begin to push down. we couldn't have done that six months ago, the conditions are in place. >> dickerson: the 50, the president, how many of those have arrived? >> in fact i was just in northern iraq talking with the task force we're not going to preview when that is -- those are sensitive information. but they have been going in, organizing the forces in fact the forces that they will work

with have been doing very successful operation, they have taken back about 1100 square kilometers, killed about 300isil fight terse is focused on isolating the capital where we think they are being hatched. >> dickerson: is the u.s. operation now, there was talk about iraq, lot of effort, now basically that syria is ground zero for u.s. anti-terrorism operation? >> i gave briefing at the state department just the other day to talk about a multiple pressure strategy across what we call the core of isil and iraq and syria. we're going to two things. going to pressure them and strangle them in the core that means all around iraq and syria we're doing that by cutting offer the final day stretch of border they have with turkey. we're doing by cutting off access points, we're doing it by protecting and working with the security forces to retake ramadi. talking with prime minister about that, simultaneous pressure in iraq and syria but

as we suffocate and strangle them in the core also going to work to strangle international network. we've never seen anything like. this 30,000 foreign fighters from 100 countries around the world is almost twice as many that went into afghanistan in the '80s. we have to work as a global community, we have to share information. 34 countries have broken up foreign fighter plots now we need to do is share the information to take the networks at a single time. >> dickerson: the center of that core you describe, assad. u.s. wants him out, russians don't. we hear about cooperate takes all the countries, if the united states is not cooperating with russia because we have fundamental difference on assad how is any real progress going to be made? >> i think the president spoke to this this morning, the russians that isil took credit for the airliner and all signs that have point to the fact that isil was responsible. but we welcome russia efforts against isil that is something that very much focus on.

in vienna for the first time in history since this started four years ago now have all the players around the table. the russians, the saudis, iranians, all members o the u.n. security council they have agreed on 18 month road map for political transition also to put in place the cease fire, we want to do, been working with the russians on this very closely. have a cease fire against modern opposition and regime to focus on the real threat of isil that this not going to happen. we can't get to cease fire unless we have creditability -- credible to lead to assad stepping aside. >> dickerson: thanks so much. >> thank you. dickerson: we'll be right back.

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michael morell. former national security advisor to president obama tom donilon and former homeland security advise tore president george w. bush, fran townsend. where are we now relative to where we were last week? >> four things that have happened in the last week. we've firmed up that the attacking terrorists was indeed directedly isis leadership, first directed attack in the west. two, we have firmed up that a bomb did indeed bring down the russian airliner over the sinai. three, we had terrorist attack in mali by al qaeda. very important reminder that al qaeda remains out there and in many ways just as dangerous if not more dangerous than isis. four, we have what's ongoing in brussels today, which is very clear to me that this was going to be another attack by the same group, similar kind of attack they raided 'arm this morning

found explosives, found weapons i think that is what we're looking at is possible wave of attacks in europe. john brennan this week said that the terrorist attack was first in a pipeline of many. >> dickerson: all right, michael morell. we will be back with all of you in a moment we'll take quick commercial break we'll be back in a moment. stay with us. the market.redict... but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments

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>> dickerson: some of our cbs stations are leaving us now for most of you we'll be right back with a lot more "face the nation." stay with us.

>> dickerson: we're back now with cbs news security analyst michael morell. former national security advise other to president obama tom done lip and former homeland security advisor to president george w. bush fran townsend. give me your assessment. >> we'll take into account the point that michael made. i think that the terror threat has metastasized. we had a loft success with respect to that but this is now evolved. i think we're in a new and more dangerous stage with respect to the terror against west and united states. i think manifested itself in isis moving from a focused agenda around building so-called cafiphase to external. that's what we've seen. they have basically announced they're going to do this since

last august they have been by my count launched attacks in ten countries. just in the last few weeks we've seen attacks in beirut, paris, which resulted in the loss of life of 400 people just in the last few weeks. we're in new, more dangerous space. >> dickerson: what do you make of this phase? >> what it underscores to tom's point is that you can't have a multi-pronged approach to fighting isis any longer, this notion of the president's agenda of having iraq first before syria, i think what you're seeing is the global threat emanating out of sear california you must have syria first policy now. you must in order to disrupt the global threat. i think that that really is now underscored by this threat as tom points out in places around the world and the loss of lives. >> dickerson: just -- that is who lived through pre9/11 years there's similarity here that is frightening to me. another group who says it wants

to attack us, you have them building that capability just as bin laden built it. we don't have great visibility just as we did not do that. they have single most important advantage, safe haven, building that capability. we just have major attack overseas. embassy bombs ink and paris now, should be wake-up call. >> i really do think you have to say to yourself did we learn anything to 9/11 you have to do in attack do it now before the attack. >> very good point. it's different and more complicated than that. i agree with lot of the points you made. we have seen systemic break down. which has allowed these large swaths of ungoverned territory to emerge into groups. that's a different circumstance in terms of the amount of space these groups have. one of the lessons of 9/11 giving them operational space

like they had in afghanistan is a dangerous thing. and the numbers are a lieutenant bigger with respect to potential pools of terrorists. and last, michael made this point in other forums, the speed with which this organization, isis, has recruited organized itself is substantially faster idea to senator feinstein's point. do today what we will do tomorrow after an attack. >> this is the big challenge. really is the big challenge. the lesson of 9/11 was can we as a nation act before we get attacked. and that is very difficult. your president roosevelt could not bring the american people to intervene in world war ii until pearl harbor. very difficult for president to bring a nation be along. >> dickerson: this is a president who you served, in his 7th year, came in promising to

pull troops out, does he have the energy nor fight if it calls for much more? >> certainly, the circumstances have evolved and changed as we have been discussing, there are a number of things that need to be done both president and secretary of defense says that the effort needs to be intensified. especially in syria. it is critical for us to break the narrative of sus says of this organization to, do that you need victories including taking their their capital in syria. i do think we will head towards having more direct support for these efforts by american special operations. >> to do that, the president would have to acknowledge that the current strategy is failing. in order to revitalize and intensify you have to acknowledge, right, what we're doing isn't producing the results fast enough to mike's point. has to have a sense of urgency. >> dickerson: there's two things to accomplish here to squeeze these guys. one is we have to put pressure on them in the safe haven and

shrink the safe haven that's is lesson learned number one of defeating al qaeda in south asia. number two, remove leadership in rapid succession. those are the two things you have to accomplish. >> dickerson: tom, if dealing with syria in isis requires getting assad out of the way, seems the tension with assad, u.s. wants them gone, russians don't, isn't that a hurdle that needs to be cleared to get some real progress? >> it's a hurdle. but i don't think that should stand in the way of the military operations that we can launch working more intensively. but it's a new phase. i do think it's a new more dangerous phase here that requires new and additional steps. i would not have the effort to take down isis and to take rocca to support directly the kurdish and arab forces in syria. i would not have that be held up by the political process which has to go done. and parallel but it shouldn't be

an obstacle to -- the russians have an interest here in defeating isis, they have hundreds if not thousands of russians who have come into this fight from russia, they have 224 russians killed in this airline attack we believe by isis and sinai. to date they haven't put their focused effort on this, that should be a test for them here. as to whether they can get themselves to act here in coordination with the rest of the nation natural community against isis. >> dickerson: your homeland security expertise, in conversation with they can about syrian refugees what is your take on how much threat that is and how the administration handled the debate? >> l really interesting to me, the president made impacksed humanitarian argument. i believe he does care about of the refugees, he's not made the most persuasive which is the national security argument. to not bring refugees in you leave these people in desperate circumstances and you see the

battlefield that are the camps to recruitment of isis, al qaeda. you lead he those potential new recruits to our children and grandchildren to fight generations later. second thing is, we've had real trouble getting good hum in a tell generals off the ground in sear california these people are fleeing isis, may represent real opportunity at gathering human intelligence as you take them in. the other thing i don't understand republican's point of view. they allowed themselves to be painted as anti-refugee when i think what they're trying to articulate and say, we're anti-isis, we're anti-al qaeda. they are using refugees to insert themselves. both sides seem to be sort of almost intentionally talking past each other, there really is a rational middle ground. >> dickerson: mike, i want to ask you about this motion of rules of in gaugement. do you get the sense that the way in which the u.s. is take can the fight to isil, my

reporting lot of people said there's real concern about collateral damage that blocked some of the activities. has that changed? >> i don't believe it's changed. there's very strict rules of engagement with regard to human collateral and environmental damage from that. i think something we need to look at. allows for collateral damage as lock as proportionate to the military gain. we have very strict standards for important purposes, need to look at that. >> i think a number of new efforts will be taken. i want to go to france and refugees, this is an important point. most difficult way to get at the united states go through the screening process, it's not a large number, it takes 18o 24 loss but we do have real homeland security issues. >> that's right. >> that europe has real flaws in external border control,

intelligence sharing, airline passenger list we need to insist that the europeans clean this up and way to do that i think is pressure that. clean it up, we don't participate. >> dickerson: last word to you, tom. thanks for being us with us we'll be back in a moment. i absolutely love my new but the rent is outrageous. good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. with great coverage it protects my personal belongings should they get damaged, stolen or destroyed. [doorbell] uh, excuse me. delivery. hey.

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we're glad to have you. let me start with this refugee question where we left off. people from other countries that you thought were dangerous but in the conversation today the word is seems to be from experts more about visa waivers say people he do come in through europe, countries where you don't need the kind of screening that you have with refugees. why isn't that the bigger problem? >> i think it's all of the above. my bill would have addressed refugees, students, visitors and those who want to emigrate from countries that have significant jihaddists movements. even just isolating on the refugee thing. we had two iraqi refugees come to my hometown then wanted to buy stinger missiles. one had fingerprints in our database system because he had his fingerprints on a bomb fragment from iraq yet we didn't catch him. this was just a couple of years ago we were not vetting refugees adequately. the boston bombers also came here as refugees became

radicalized for the president say there's no danger is incorrect. i do agree with those who say that these are waiver programs is a problem. there are many french citizens who want to attack their government and attack us. we have no program for screening them. i say they should all come in through global entry sort of frequent flier program, we have to get background check or wait 30 days. right now we have nothing in place i think we are at great deal of risk from variety of sources, refugees but also visa waiver nations. >> dickerson: you have consistently been cautioning your party about overseas military involvement and you've said on these issues, be strong in the homeland keep them from coming in. but has the paris -- growth of isis changed your mind in terms of this argument you have to get them there. you have to fight isis in iraq and syria, degrade them in their operating space so that they don't even get chance to come to america. >> i think the first thing we have to do learn from our history. past several decades if there is one true thing in the middle

east that when we've toppled secular dictators we have chaos. by toppling saddam hussein we're suffering that by toppling gadhafi in libya. we have chaos and third of libya pledges allegiance to isis. by pouring weapons into the syrian civil war on the side of islamic rebels who are actually allied with al qaeda some of whom became isis that was mistake. the ultimate solution, if we want long lasting victory, lasting peace, what we have to do boots on the ground have to be arab, you have to have sunni muslims defeating sunni muslims. even the shiite muslims can't occupy these cities. isis is surrounded but what we have to do we do need a cease fire in syria, probably russia is going to be part that have solution if we're willing to talk with them. also need to engage turkey on one side. we need tone gauge the kids on one side. we need to get the baghdad army

to become less of a sectarian shiite army, when you include significant sunnis in that army when they go into the lands that have been captured by isis, then it will be sunni muslims coming into the towns and recapturing them. nothing else is going to cause a lasting victory. >> dickerson: come back to the homeland here for a moment. you have been very careful about stopping overreach in terms of u.s. surveillance. we've had some talks this morning about encryption being the big back door the way these terrorists can communicate. what is your sense -- how much do you worry that there will be overreach in terms of additional surveillance operations? >> i'm very worried about. that because i think when you have a fearful time or an angry time, that people are coached into giving up their liberty. already many in the intelligence community, if we only had the bulk phone collection program back, what they're not telling you what they're being dishonest about we still have the phone collection program, all phone records are still being collected all the time. we still have the attacks.

realize that in france they have bulk collection or surveillance of their citizens a thousand fold greater than what we have with very little privacy protections, they still didn't know anything about. this so what i would argue is, if you can keep giving up liberty, but in the end i don't think we'll be safer but we may have lost who we are as a people in the process. i'm going to fight to make sure that doesn't happen. >> dickerson: in the last 20 seconds, surveillance of mosques, do you put that in the same category in terms of overreach to answer this threat? >> if you're going to do surveillance to religious institutions, yes. i think surveillance has fairly throw threshold or individuals. i think the discussion should be, will we have surveillance, will we follow people who we think are a risk. that is a lower threshold. yes, we should follow people who are at risk, should we talk to their neighbors and friends, should we talk to their imam. all that have is legitimate but

target mosques have database of muslims? absolutely not. i think that is reel lay disqualifying both donald trump and marco rubio to say we'll close down every place that potentially has a discussion that might lead to extremism. that would require some sort of religious czar which isn't consistent with our freedom. >> dickerson: thanks so much for being with us. we'll be back with our battleground tracker poll.

>> dickerson: we'ring with with new results from our cbs news battleground tracker. in iowa the ground has shifted. donald trump is still in first, he's out front in 30%. but ted cruz is picking up now at 1%. ben carson has cropped to 19%. down eight points from last month. after carson, marco rubio comes in at 11. next candidate is jeb bush with 5%. and carly fiorina at four. rest is two percent or lower. in new hampshire again it's donald trump on top with 32%. marco rubio has made gains there is now at 13%.

ben carson drops to 10% where he's joined with ted cruz, john kasich is at eight. jeb bush, rand paul, carly fiorina at 6%. rest of the field is at 1% or less. south carolina is all donald trump, too. he's at 35%. carson at 19. rubio close behind there with 16%. senator cruz at 13%. jeb bush comes in with 5. and rest of the field is at 3% or less. take closer look at those numbers with our political panel, ruth marcus from the "washington post," karl rove was the top political advisor to george w. bush. and he's out with a new book "the triumph of william mckinley: why the election ever 1896 still matters" and ron brownstein. ben carson slips in iowa what does that mean? >> has taken lot of questions

about whether he's up for the job. as you get closer those -- the polls in general, donald trump whatever reason polls a little better in online only polls like this that we see otherwise he was at 22 in "boston globe" poll today. in new hampshire. but having said that there's no question strong position, this shift toward the nexus of immigration and terrorism. i would say republican race still boils down to two sentences. donald trump is consolidating the blue collar wing of the republican party with 41% nationally. the college and white collar wing remains track furred. he's at 23 there. no one really is there. the question is does the race look different at any point when someone eventually does consolidate that. not that donald trump is going anywhere with his support and more blue collar popular part. >> dickerson: has it changed after paris? >> i think it has changed after

paris, your guest on enl earlier senator rand paul will suffer in the new environment. sass i believe ben carson who is admirable person but unable to answer these questions. donald trump what's interesting to me it doesn't matter. he is the man who was saying in essence, leave isis up to putin to handle, it's no concern of ours now we're going to bomb the expletive out of them. it really doesn't matter. ron made the point that he's strang, relative to the rest of the field he is strong. but he has high floor and low ceiling what is going to be hard for him to move out wherever he is. the rest of the field is beginning to son sol date around notion, it shouldn't, must not be trump that is bad news for him. maybe good news for the two people in the polls that were moving. ted cruz and marco rubio. >> dickerson: let me ask you about themf it's a conversation about isis and homeland security threats in our battleground tracker poll we asked the commander in chief question.

ted cruz comes in 67% think he is ready to commander in chief. 51% think marco rubio that may just be affection translating into another question. but on this question, explain to me what people are thinking when they look at this. do they want somebody just talking strength or do they want somebody who can talk about the geographic complexity and different groups fighting? >> i don't think they know what they want. i don't think they know what they mean when it comes down to specific candidates, somebody who seems, quote, presidential in nature. seems to have a command of foreign policy, who says things that make them feel that they know what they're doing. and let's put something else in perspective. we may think we're close because we're going to start vote can the first of february but we are a long, long way away from this. in iowa, in 2008, over a third of the voters made up their minds literally closing days of the contest. it used to be in 1999 and 2000 feet voting on literally the second of january that people

began to consolidate after thanksgiving. now doing it a month later. we're likely to she several different changes here, the deeper people get a sense of what it is they specifically want, deeper their likelihood is to be link with particular candidate. >> i spent last sunday with evangelical churches around des moines and ames it reinforces what carl said what the findings of your poll are. people are still taking account and digesting the lessons of paris. lot of the people i talked to were still saying nice things about dr. carson but second person they mentioned was ted cruz. i think the emergence of ted cruz in these polls and potential emergence of marco rubio in new hampshire kind of tells you the shape of this race going forward. >> dickerson: do you think democrats will have any opportunity to exploit some of the things republicans have said with respect to these refugees? there's a lot of theeft, does that last to the general? >> i think it does last to the general.

i have to say this week i've been nostalgic for the good old days of george w. bush and his soothing, calming responsible words about muslims back in the 9/11 attacks. this was a very ugly week for republicans in terms of their response on refugees. i think it was -- something that was exacerbated by failure of president obama to explain to people that they weren't crazy to be nervous, but to understand their nervousness to explain it away. >> dickerson: karl rove has to respond to that. >> just say, if president obama had said, speaker ryan, you're right. we need to tap the brakes, let's do what you suggest, what you and significant number of democrats suggest, this was a veto-proof vote out of the house of representatives. if he had said, senate, take that bill up, get it passed i'm going to sign it we'll tap the brakes and put in place the things that will require these

people to recertified. it would not take long for him to make what necessary changes, would have been a confidence building measure. the president is exploiting us for politics, he doesn't care about the -- >> dickerson: very quick points. >> one think that i up lower over the refugees has to be continuation of debate that is going on in the republican primary about whether undocumented immigrants the borders are basically threat to your safety. this is big theme. having said that i think the more important line in the end, what happens with 10,000 syrian refugees, tens of thousands of american troops, dividing line that hillary clinton but r put down, no lodge scale american ground force may ultimately be more point of separation with the republican nominee next year than question of what to do with the refugees today. >> dickerson: 20 seconds ruth on hillary clinton. connection to the obama administration what some people feel as failure on isis or help because she knows this terrain in terms of the issue?

>> i think it's a mixed bag, people who are going to vote for any democrat be are going to vote for her anyway. but i think in contrast with bernie sanders and long term benefit. >> dickerson: sorry. thanks to all of you. we'll see you again next week, mr. rove for our presidential authors panel. thanks for joining us. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?

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>> dickerson: until next week for "face the nation." i'm john dickerson.

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