hello. welcome back to "newsline." i'm miki yamamoto in tokyo. first the headlines for this hour. authorities have announced that 48 people taken off mount ontake have been confirmed dead, making this japan's worst volcanic disaster in decades. pro-democracy activists in hong kong remain defiant. they've threatened to step up their demonstrations unless they can meet the territory's chief executive. the dollar is at a six-year

high against the yen. the same strength it had before the global economic crisis in 2008. japanese authorities have confirmed saturday's volcanic eruption is one of the deadliest ever. they now say all 48 people found without vital signs have been confirmed dead. and they are still searching through ash and debris, looking for more victims. smoke is still spewing from craters that formed on the southwest face of the summit. about 1,000 self-defense force personnel, police officers, and firefighters, have been searching in difficult conditions. officials say the death toll surpasses the eruption in nagasaki prefecture in 1991, where 43 people died. they now say mount ontake's eruption is the worst volcanic disaster in post-war japan. police say the victims suffered severe injuries that led to their death.

they say many climbers were hit on the head, neck and back by falling rocks. searchers will return to the top of the mountain on thursday to look for any remaining victims. demonstrators in hong kong are refusing to back down. they say they'll step up their protests until leaders start listening to their demands. nhk world has more. >> reporter: people are calling it the umbrella operation. demonstrators have been using parasols to protect themselves from the rain and from pepper spray and tear gas. more and more people have gathered here to express frustration against the authorities. they are defiant, and they say they are here to stay. protesters spent all last night in the streets, calling for a

meeting with hong kong's chief executive leung chun-ying. but leung has not responded to the calls. and demonstrators are showing their frustration. >> translator: he's neglecting us. he's not listening to our requests at all. >> reporter: the protesters are angry about what they see as a threat to hong kong's democracy. officials on the mainland decided in august that candidates for chief executive must be approved by a beijing nominating panel. members of the national people's congress standing committee approved the decision. this virtually rules out participation by candidates who are critical of the chinese political system. it's day four since the demonstration began. most of the protesters stayed the whole night in front of the hong kong government building, which is right there. more people are expected to join the protests on wednesday and thursday, which are public holidays.

demonstrators are calling on officials in beijing to retract their decision about the nominating process. they want an electoral system that allows ordinary citizens to have a say in selecting candidates for chief executive. and they want leung to resign. officials in beijing say the transition to full democracy must move forward in stages. authorities in hong kong say the decision of the people's congress will stand, even if demonstrators continue their protests. but activists warn they'll escalate their protests unless leung agrees to talk with them by thursday. they say the next step may be to occupy government buildings. nhk world, hong kong. u.s. president barack obama and indian prime minister nraen ra modi have agreed to strengthen economic and security ties. modi is visiting washington for

the first time since taking office in may. the two leaders say they'll expand their collaboration on trade and investment. they also deepened their cooperation on renewable energy technology. they both are agreed to step up military cooperation, including expert exchanges and joint exercises. and they've discussed enhancing u.s. technology cooperation to help support india's navy. >> we are affirmed that as two of the world's largest democracies, it is critical for us to continue to deepen and broaden the existing framework of partnership and friendship that already exists. >> translator: i am convinced that india and american economic relations will develop rapidly in the future. >> both expressed their concern about rising tensions over territorial disputes in the south china sea.

leaders of some southeast asian countries say they're worried about china's increased maritime activity in the region. obama and modi are calling on all parties to avoid using force to advance their claims. they say disputes should be resolved peacefully, and in line with international law. the two leaders also say it's important to promote communications with japan. they say they'll explore holding foreign minister talks from all three countries. and now for the latest in business news, a big day for the currency market. here's ron madison from the biz desk. ron? >> it was a pretty big day, miki. investors really flocked to the u.s. dollar. the greenback touched the key 110 yen level at one point on wednesday, and that's a level that we haven't seen in more than six years. analysts say demand for the dollar is growing on expectations of a widening gap in interest rates between japan and the u.s. but profit taking capped gains, we're now seeing it at roughly 109.76.

traders are focusing on the private sector adp jobs figures, which are due out in the u.s. coming up in just a few hours. well, in a matter of just two months, the dollar has gained about 7%. the american currency started losing ground in 2007. this was due to the subprime loan problem that came just before the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. investors sought the safety of the yen, sending the dollar sharply lower against the japanese currency. then three years ago, in 2011, the dollar reached a record low against the yen as european credit concerns escalated. but the trend took a turn in 2012 when prime minister shinzo abe took office for a second time. bold monetary easing measures by the bank of japan in april 2013 also helped to weaken the yen. then in august this year, federal reserve chair janet yellen hinted that the u.s. central bank may start raising interest rates sooner than expected. investors looking for higher returns took her comments as a trading cue, and stepped up

their dollar buying, and that further lifted the greenback. and for more analysis on the latest currency moves i spoke earlier with the chief japan foreign exchange strategist at merrill lynch. >> the japanese yen weakened 8% in the last quarter and as you said the u.s. economy's strength is a major reason. but then there are a few japanese reasons, as well. the economic recovery has been sluggish. and then, export recovery has lowered expectations. then there is a strong trend of portfolio rebalancing out of japan and into foreign securities. so i think these three reasons are pushing the yen weaker. >> okay, what about in terms of the trend. how long do you think we'll see this continue? give us your near-term and longer-term outlook, as well. >> so longer-term i think it depends on when the japanese economy will hit 2% inflation. which is the boj's price objective. we think it is possible to achieve 2% inflation, but probably not as soon as next

year. the boj currently expects. so i think the yen's long-term, you know, weak trend should continue until the second half of next year. however, short-term i will be a little cautious. two reasons, one, you know, the recent yen weakening has already loosened japan's financial conditions. and there is a scope for reprising. and then yen weakness from here, let's say in the next couple months, can become the subject to the currency diplomacy. >> okay let's talk a little bit more about the boj. how carefully does it need to weigh what's going on with the currency markets now in terms of, you know, imposing any other stimulus? >> that's a pretty good question, ron. i think the economy has been slower, so that that might put some pressure to the boj. however, weaker yen actually, you know, results in looser financial conditions. so the market reprising of more hawkish fomc has already made boj looking more dovish on the

relative term. so i would say that probably reduces probability of additional easing near-term. >> okay. all right, what do you think the impact of this is really going to be on the economy overall, though? >> so, there's been a lot of discussions. i think on net, over the long term, weaker yen should be positive on the economy. you know, you cannot just look at the wider trade deficit or higher inflation. you have to look at the positive impact on income balance, japan's external assets and corporate profitability. however, near-term, there's going to be a divergent effect between exporters who benefit most, but you know, the benefit of exporters might spill over, you know, with some lag into household sector and service sector. >> okay. and speaking of the exporters, where are they looking at the yen to be at the moment? and how do you think it's going to affect them? >> that's a pretty good question, because this morning tankan survey showed exporters are assuming dollar/yen at around 100. however, i think the weaker yen's trend is quite evident

now, so i would say, you know, they will be looking a little higher than what the, you know, this morning's tankan survey showed so higher than 100. but probably less than 110. >> all right. and to the markets now, slowing eurozone inflation figures on tuesday raised concerns about deflation risks, and the latest weak manufacturing data from the eurozone has added to the worries. the adjusted eurozone pmi figures slipped to 50.3 in september. major indexes in europe are now showing fairly mixed picture, london is down 0.4%. frankfurt is gaining, though, just under 0.2%. and paris's cac 40 still showing declines of nearly 0.4%. other markets in asia also showed a mixed performance today in what was a very quiet trading session with hong kong and shanghai closed for public holidays. the pro-democracy protests in hong kong continue. and that's really been curbing investors' appetite for risk. south korea's kospi fell down

1.4%. closer look at tokyo where the benchmark nikkei average closed at a two-dweek low of 16,082, a decline of half a percent. the weak yen did provide a bit of support for tokyo stocks in early trading but we saw profit taking capping the upside today. now there is something else that economists are following today, it's a key survey known as the tankan. the economists who study japan have been careful to track it to learn more about the effects of the consumption tax hike in april. every three months, bank of japan officials conduct the survey. they ask managers from about 10,000 japanese companies how they're feeling about the economy. now the last survey showed that managers were pessimistic immediately following that tax hike. and the survey that was released this morning shows that sentiment is a bit more mixed. the head line figure marks little improvement from the previous survey. it shows sentiment at large manufactures was at plus 13. that was a gain of just one point from the previous survey. but at nonmanufacture ofs sentiment actually worsened for two consecutive quarters now.

the index fell 6 points from the previous survey. numbers for restaurants, hotels and real estate dropped. retail sales also remained weak after the consumption tax hike. and the outlook for the october to december period, large manufacturers are predicting plus 13. that would be unchanged from this survey. nonmanufacturers also expecting very little improvement there. company officials worry that a weaker yen would push up the cost of raw materials which may end up affecting their profits. no doubt prime minister shinzo abe was hoping for a more positive response from the business community, as he does need to decide by the end of the year whether to further raise the consumption tax. but many business owners are finding the economic climate less than encouraging. nhk world's kyoko fujita has more on that. >> reporter: this company runs beer holes and restaurants all over japan. company executives had hoped that their sales would get a

boost once consumer sentiment recovered from the tax hike in april. but they're not happy with their numbers. bad weather over the summer has dragged down sales. clouds and rain kept customers away, and drove up the price of vegetables. and company executives say customers are not spending as much as they had hoped even after summer bonuses were given out. >> translator: i'm being a bit cautious, because i'm feeling the impact of the tax hike every time i go out. everything costs more. >> reporter: the company's president is worried that consumer confidence will remain weak. >> translator: i'm concerned that people will continue to spend less, even throughout the end of year party season in december. the season makes up a huge part of our business. so if things don't pick up, the impact could be severe. >> reporter: the auto industry is also suffering from a drop in spending. carmakers enjoyed a surge in demand before the tax hike went into effect.

as consumers rushed to buy big ticket items. now, the industry is in a slump. workers at this auto parts factory north of tokyo make drive shafts. executives say sales in the july to september quarter fell by about 7% compared to last year. they had been expecting a different result. they thought the tax hike would have only a temporary impact, and that this would bounce back over the summer. the slow recovery of the global economy has hurt exports. and the weaker yen has pushed up the cost of imported materials by nearly 10%. executives are worried about how long the downward trend will last. >> our october through december seems to be a little -- well it's not a little, you know, relatively lower than we

originally planned. so, i think overall our sentiment of this industry is it's not really as good as we originally thought. >> reporter: one economist warns that increases in the cost of materials could cause prices to go up further. and that could put the brakes on spending. company executives could refrain from paying higher wages and bonuses, if their sales continue to be sluggish. >> translator: if people do not see their winter bonuses increase as much as they'd hoped, price hikes will be a heavy burden for consumers. the nation's economy may fall into a negative spiral. >> reporter: abe has been struggling to revive the economy before deciding on the tax hikes. but disappointing summer sales have made his task more complicated. with less than three months until the deadline, businesses and consumers are keeping a close eye on what he does next.

kyoko fujita, nhk world. all right. well finally for biz this hour, tourists in japan have a new reason to shop. almost everything now on store shelves is tax free for visitors. the list of exempt items was expanded on wednesday to include food, cosmetics and medicine. staff at a department store in tokyo's posh ginza district marked the occasion. the outlet has tripled its space for processing tax exemption forms. it has also increased its foreign language staff. >> well, it's nice that we don't have to pay tax. i mean, that helps, because the tax is kind of high here in japan. so, it helps, gives you more money in your pocket to spend. >> other stores and supermarkets have launched similar services. these include tax free counters, and some railway shopping precincts are introducing special areas just for foreign buyers.

all right. that is going to do it for biz this hour. here's a check of the markets. japanese government officials say they're planning to send a delegation to north korea. they were invited by pyongyang for a briefing on the investigation into the fate of abductees. they say at least 17 nationals were kidnapped by north korean agents in the 1970 and '80s.

nhk world has more. >> reporter: japanese officials in charge of the abduction issue met with their north korean counterparts on monday in china to talk about the probe. prime minister shinzo abe says he was briefed by his chief delegate who attended the meeting. >> translator: ambassador song il-ho explained that the investigation into the abductees and missing japanese is being carried out in a scientific and objective manner. but he said it is still in the initial stage and is not ready to be released. song asked our chief delegate ihara to send japanese officials to pyongyang to talk directly with the members of the special investigation committee. and see how the probe is progressing. >> reporter: nhk conducted an exclusive interview on tuesday

with north korea's envoy for normalizing relations with japan. he stressed that the delay of the first report on the investigation was not intentional. >> translator: in early september, the committee was ready to explain how the officials were proceeding with their probe. if there had been a request from the japanese side. >> reporter: song also said it would be better for the japanese delegates to come to pyongyang to be briefed in person. >> translator: whenever the japanese side comes to pyongyang the committee is ready to report on the current state of its probe. >> reporter: abe's planning to send ihara and other officials in charge of the abduction issue to the north korean capital.

but some are concerned they may not get relevant information considering how the country has handled issues so far. japan partially eased sanctions when north korea launched the probe. song said he believes if there's trust, the remaining sanctions will gradually be lifted. nhk world, tokyo. and it's time for the world weather with our meteorologist jonathan oh. jonathan, i hear that phanfone has strengthened to a large tropical storm. what does that mean for us in japan? >> miki, it means we need to be keeping an eye on this particular system. not only is it strengthening and getting larger, but the track of the system is also focussed for japan. here's a look at the satellite imagery, and you can see, the mariana islands on the eastern side of the storm, they're still dealing with the effects of this

growing system. and now it's moving toward the north and west, and it continues to build strength. we're expecting it to become a strong typhoon at around midnight or so after midnight going into thursday local time. packing winds of 126 with gusts up to 162. this is going to continue to move toward the north and west. and notice the track shows the system turning toward the north and east. the reason why is because we're expecting a trough to develop and force the system toward the east. now notice the circle, the area of possibility with this particular storm is quite large going in to monday. so we will continue to keep an eye on this, because it looks like, at least for the moment, this track is focusing towards central japan by the time you go in to monday. already, over into the islands, waves of up to five meters have been reported. now, for the moment, as this system continues to move over water, the rain accumulation not a big deal. but the potential of all this moisture moving toward japan is

something that we will have to monitor. meanwhile, as we look further toward the north, in the larger perspective of east asia that high pressure system that's over china and also the one between korean peninsula and japan, that's creating -- usually when you see high pressure you see pleasant weather but a little bit of instability with the upper level air creating plenty of clouds for japan, and also into the korean peninsula. once these two features push toward the east, that's when we're looking at phanfone as it continues to move toward the north and west and that low that's located back toward the west, that development is going to likely be the pushing mechanism for the storm as we head toward the weekend. cloudy skies for tokyo and also into seoul coming up for thursday and again rain down toward the south because of the persistent rainy season front into hong kong and also into the indochina peninsula. here's a look at the forecast for north america. pretty clear for the eastern side of the united states, but we do have a low that is continuing to grow and move towards saskatchewan.

now associated with that is a cold front and we did have one tornado report coming out of the dakotas. but it looks like the system will continue to push toward the east. the focal point of rain located toward the upper midwest and also the wraparound moisture bringing some rain and instability into places like denver, so you will need to have the umbrella as you go throughout wednesday. temperatures topping off at only 18 degrees there in denver. 16 in winnipeg. and down towards houston, you're also going to see some instability, and also that stationary front that's consistently stayed down towards florida, means more rain for you and thunderstorms with a high of 31 in miami for wednesday. wrapping things up with a look at europe, you can see this whole track of clouds located toward the southern portions of the continent. we had this trough, this bend in the upper levels of the atmosphere that allowed moisture to come in and really cause problems for southern france. that focus now shifts toward the east, still seeing some more rain for northern italy into the portions of poland and also into northern portions of the balkan peninsula. that's going to be a focal point

for rain, maybe some storms. and then we have an oncoming frontal system into the scandinavian peninsula. that's going to bring some rain and clouds, also into portions of the british isles. 20 for the high for wednesday, 12 in stockholm. you'll see some more cloud cover coming up for thursday. hope you have a good day wherever you are. here's your extended outlook.

and one more story to share with you before we go. a hungarian scholar has struck gold. experts confirm that he's found part of the score of a famous mozart piano sonata handwritten by the composer. ♪

he was looking through a folder of unidentified music scores earlier this year. at the national library in budapest. he found four pages of the piano sonata number 11. experts believe mozart composed the piece in 1783. the third movement is known as the turkish march. it's one of mozart's most famous melodies. >> i said, this looks like mozart. and then very soon i realized this must be mozart because i started to read the piece and it happens to be one of the most famous mozart sonatas so i read a few bars and i said this is the handwriting of mozart. >> experts have confirmed the authenticity of the finding. there's some differences between the original score and the versions now in use. only one page of the original score had been preserved in mozart's birthplace of salzburg, austria. and that's all for this edition of "newsline."

i'm miki yamamoto from tokyo. we'll have more news for you at the top of the hour. thanks for watching nhk world. gç

but look him friends wave four. these are the headlight -- >> welcome to france 24. these are the headlines. protesters in hong kong are fighting for elections that are free from control from beijing in 2017. six civilians are killed in new shelling in the region of the eastern ukraine. our correspondent is standing by with more. and the first case of ebola is diagnosed in the united states will stop the search -- in the united sta