>> joe biden ahead in pennsylvania just over 5000 votes, the 10th of a percentage point, still very close race. ballots are continuing to be counted. particularly here in philadelphia where biden has been winning 7% of the vote. that lead is expected to expand. as it does, president trump has been attacking the poll workers and the credibility of the count and launching legal challenges. >> house speaker nancy pelosi has already called joe biden president-elect. >> it appears the trump administration will use its final moments in office in a desperate last step to destroy every possible action for american health and well-being. so many people have said to me, what damage do you think trump will do between losing the

election and this -- the inauguration of joe biden? maybe didn't praise it quite that way but that is how i heard it. we knew he would be up to mischief. separate and apart from trying to destroy the credibility of our elections, which we criticize other nations for doing and now families for an and domestic and now we have one domestic. >> those are the headlines. the nurse continues after inside story. -- the news continues after inside story. ♪

>> is ethiopia headed for civil war. this is "inside story." hello and welcome to the program. leaders have dominated the coalition. after the prime minister in 2018, they refused to join this single party alliance. in september, he went ahead with local elections to suspend holes is a coronavirus. he now says his patients has room out he has ordered a military operation after accusing the tpl of of attacking federal groups.

it is feared the feud could lead to the breakup of ethiopia and the u.n. is calling for the escalation of tensions. we have a report. emily: it was business as usual in the yield bain capital but many are on alert. conflict simmers in the north of the country. >> we are not people who fight and kill each other, therefore i feel that the federal governments should solve their differences through dialogue and negotiations and prioritize the interests of our nation area -- nation. >> increased the perfect opportunity for robbery. our country needs peace. we are in a very disgusting time. i am telling you the truth. >> the prime minister lots of military offensive in the region accusing the opposition led local government of attacking federal troops and looting their assets. the regions will by the people's

liberation fund. >> today the if the open has dad -- has stabbed ethiopia. rplf is viewing them as a foreign army. i declare that we ethiopians will do all we can to shame and destroy this force. >> he declared a six-month state of emergency and shut off electricity, phone, and internet services there. in a statement aired on television, a regional government spokesman accuses the nobel prime winning prime minister of halloween the people -- of cowing the people into integration by force. they postponed the polls citing the pandemic but the tplf says

it was to stay in power. he says they were squeezed out a power in 2018. analyst warned the conflict could turn into a civil war. >> this can lead to the destabilization in the fracturing of the military because officers thought that may not be loyal to the federal government in terms of its efforts to remove the tplf leadership a this could lead to a broader problem in ethiopia and could spread to the border of africa. >> the yuan has been called on both sides to de-escalate tensions and find a peaceful solution. secretary-general underlined the importance of stability for ethiopia and africa, a region with a long history of border conflict. ♪ >> let's bring in our guest from

london. a senior lecturer and a horn of africa analyst. in the minister in charge of democratization and from london is martin, a senior research fellow at the institute of commonwealth studies. thank you for joining us. prime minister abe said the federal military rations in the north have clear, limited, and achievable objectives. where do things stand now and what are those objectives? >> the objects are loud and clear. as you may be aware of, the base has been invaded tplf, and things have been looted.

we are there to make sure that rule and the law of the land is restricted. -- is respected. our second object is to make sure that our citizens living there are living free without a military junta. as the prime minister has stated, the millie -- military operation is meant for these two major objectives. >> just how close is ethiopia to civil war right now? >> i think ethiopia is in a state of war already. we have an armed confrontation between government forces and

forces that are loyal to the regional government and the territory of government with resources. this is a civil war. two address the point that it was making earlier that the government was forced into this confrontation. to be quite honest, we know the writing is on the wall of what is coming in terms of a confrontation between the two forces. it is now an extension of what has been in other places. the only reason were talking about the confrontation is because tplf has resources that extend itself. the evidence very clearly showed they have already been provocative deployment on the border.

if tplf tries to loot from the resources, it is probably because there has been types of force against them. >> what are the reasons for the conflict and why has it escalated so much? was the tipping point the holding of the election? martin: i think that was the immediate cause. in a sense, you can't hold an election in an area where part of your country where the federal government says you can't hold that election, that it is illegitimate and if you go ahead as it -- had with it, it is direct challenge to the state and perhaps when the federal government attempts to send the military commander to the north take control of the army, they basically told him to go home and that he wasn't to be allowed. if you go further back from

that, you see the integration of the system of government that was brought about in 1991, when the tigreans rock about federalism that -- brought about federalism that left them going through a series of proxies all the various regions and peoples of ethiopia. that gradually fell away until you get the election of prime minister abe. it opened a pandora's box and all sorts of ethnic tensions exploded. >> i know you are eager to come in here please go ahead. >> the way i would characterize the ongoing operation in tigre is long. one is to call it a civil war, the citizens carry the weight of the war between people, among

people. this is a conflict between the federal government trying to uphold the law in tigre and a military junta that is trying to keep the good people of tigre away from the rest of the country by way of looting and so on. this is not close to civil war and not an extension of what is happening somewhere else. we are trying to uphold democracy against all hollows -- against all. the good for possible democratic governments, we know with this rings about. so what is happening, this is a normal challenge. the way we are responding to the challenge is we believe the right way to do.

there is not this kind of attack against military bases in the south. this is an extension of what is happening and is not in any way a civil war. this is simply the people of tigre against a move by the tplf and whenever an army makes its way in some part of the region now, people are coming up in mass and we are coming around. it shows the people of tigre are now in the northern base. >> it is interesting to hear them saying said. the prime minister dissolved the

former governing party and created a new party that does not reflect existing social or predominant organization or mobilization in the country. he changed it in a very rest -- rushed way. by may, he realized there is no way the party could win. the prime mr. used -- the prime minister used covid for the situation. now after eliminating every powerful or formidable adversary , which is the most significant region, after eliminating and jailing everybody, the prime minister saying now we can move forward with elections, when the covid hasn't been dealt with. the numbers are going up and more people are dying. you can see the difference

between these two forces is political and idle logical. we have a prime minister that is determined to import his own vision of the future on the people. ideas that are opposed by a significant majority in that country, and you also have other people that are opposed to it. the tplf, mismanaged and dishonored the project. he was a member of that party for a long time. he knows the situation. it is not so much that tplf is some kind of -- that is a reflection of ideological differences. it cannot have morphed into a

confrontation of this sort. >> i want to take a step back for a moment. i will get back to you as soon as i asked martin another question. i know you wanted to respond. just ask martin this question. i want to take a step back. the tigrayan haves held power. since he has come to power, has he sidelined the tplf or has he just attempted to redistribute power among tv of his various ethnic groups? -- among various ethnic groups? martin: there was a good point made by one of my colleagues and he said that the government's argument that it is a just war consent to a very -- significant

play that there has been violence of 2018 and has occurred because the tplf have planned and executed it. when this argument, concrete evidence will have to be made public and that is really at the heart of what they are having to show it if they believe and if prime minister abe believes there is direct evidence that the tigrayans are responsible for every problem, let him show it. one more challenge, let the field bins in the tigrayans allow independent reporters both from ethiopia and the international community to go to the front lines and witness what is going on with themselves and and the cutting off of telecommunications. let information flow, then we will begin to know what is really going on. >> please go ahead.

i know you wanted to respond. >> if i was saying the newly established party is established by the prime minister, this is part and parcel of the effort to change into prosperity. it is not only the prime minister's vision, but a shared vision in the party. the difference between tplf and the prosperity party is ideological. it is an ideological difference. it is simply an attempt to the terrorist group to impose its will on our military base, which rejected a call to join a resistance. the prosperity party is

established in a way that big names the problems in the country -- that aggregates the problems in the country. the way the program is designed in a way that will solve the long-standing problems. what we are seeing is it has simply worsened or postponed to another time. the election was postponed for the wrong reasons. 50 countries have postponed elections due to covid-19. it was not a will and we wanted to go out and be open. but the board failed -- felt good to covid, we postponed it.

we had members of the party who opposed. milliken -- the credibility. >> now covid has become a way of life. you don't have proof it will go away someday. and of the has proved you will get a vaccine anytime soon. so we cannot postponed the right to vote for an undetermined amount of time. even now, the travel port him up dissolution -- came up with a solution that because we have come to live with covid, we can go a lead -- i had with the election.

>> i want to tackle what he said. >> we are starting to run out of time. let me get back to another question. i want to go to him that he wanted to comment. >> it is astonishing that the leader would tell us that the prime minister was a minister and was responsible for where the security agencies in that country. it is easy to now say that it

was not committed to democratization. but what reason to we have to believe that the people are committed to democratization on we see on the ground the complete opposite of what they say? they say the election board is independent. there is no evidence to prove the election board is independent. most of the things happening in the country are happening because he mismanaged. why he was given very specific mandate when he came to power. it is important to understand he was not elected. he was elected by the party after a protest forced the prime minister to resign. when he was selected by his party he was given unlimited mandate, lead the country to

democracy and promoting national consolation. that is the mandate was given. instead of doing that, the prime minister started making -- he wanted to push it into a different direction. that is the core problem we see now. in terms of the violence that is being blamed on the tplf and other forces, while one cannot rule out that the tplf may have investigated -- instigated violence, at the same time there are reasons to believe that the government might be behind some of what was seen. a significant number of people were killed and security forces were standing and watching and

said we have not been instructed to intervene. some who grow up in ethiopia, security forces would want to enforce law and order even when they are not on duty. when you look at the way in which the recent violence in the region has been spun by the government, there are reasons to suspect the government may be behind some of it. when they accuse forces, they are expected to come forth with evidence so that people would be able to judge. there are also reasons to suspect the government may be -- >> sorry to interrupt, i know he wanted to respond to something martin said it please go ahead, but we don't have much time left and i would like to try to get martin's thoughts on what you have to say about the response. >> one thing i want to get

straight and corrected is we are not the ones who interrupted the telecommunications in tigray. the government has no problem subscribing itself to an independent review. we have been availing for that. i also want to respond to what has been said. we are part of the region, but the prime minister and other officials, including myself, ask our people for an apology and we are given the chance to get it straight. difference between us and the tpl f is they chose not to subscribe themselves to a fair share of power.

>> i'm sorry to interrupt. we are almost out of time and i want to ask martin as well a last question. i want to know from your perspective, how likely is it that the military gets pulled into this now? >> i think that is a real danger. we have seen some reports that people in airtran's have been found on the battlefield in a uniform that cannot be corroborated yet. there are also suggestions of mobilizations that cannot be corroborated. let me put 1.2 you, which is there has been a warning from the united states institute of peace, including former secretary of state for africa, both warned of the danger of a collapse of the ethiopian state,

the largest state collapse in modern history. that is what they are saying is possible. this is a really dangerous position. the idea that it could reach across the region makes it even more serious. people have to be very concerned about what is going on. >> we have run out of time. thank you to all of our guests. thank you for watching you can see the program anytime by visiting our website. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for me and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪

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