host: the headlines on al jazeera, gulf leaders signed a declaration to restore full d-up o-matic ties with -- full diplomatic ties with qatar. it was agreed at a summit in saudi arabia attended by the amir of qatar. at least 23 pro-democracy politicians have been arrested in hong kong for violating the national security law. they are cues of subversion for taking part in unofficial election primaries in july. china declared the polls illegal and warned hundreds of thousands broke the law.

reporter: we have confirmation that 23 activists have been arrested. but there are also reports on local media yet to be independently confirmed that up to 50 activists may well have been detained in a swoop by hong kong police on wednesday morning. these detentions come interestingly just a day after the retiring chief justice of hong kong spoke to the media. to categorically insist that he has never come under pressure from either beijing or the hong kong governments to rule a certain way in certain cases. host: the polls have closed in a runoff election in the u.s. state of georgia that could have a crucial impact on joe biden's powers as president. voting has been extended in some places. the vote to choose the state's two senate members will decide the balance of power in congress for the entire country. a police officer who shot a

black man in the u.s. state of wisconsin in august will not face come in all charges. he fired on jacob blake in the back, leaving him paralyzed from the waist down. the incident led to deadly protests across the u.s. last year. the u.k. has reported more than 60,000 coronavirus cases in a day for the first time. on monday the government announced a new national lockdown in england. in some parts of the country an estimated one in 50 people now have covid-19. venezuela's president nicolas maduro has tightened his grip on power with the swearing in of a national assembly controlled by his socialist party. it marks the end of control by the opposition who boycotted less month's election because he said it was neither free nor fair. opposition leader juan guaido is recognized by several nations as the country's interim leader, and instead lead a virtual opposition congress session. those are the headlines. coming up next, it is inside story. please stay with us. ♪

>> the president of central african republic wednesday -- wins a second term. but the opposition says the election was not free or fair. can the president unite a country invited by a civil war, and a humanitarian crisis? this is "inside story." ♪ host: hello and welcome to the program. the central african republic's president has been reelected in a vote marred by violence and

intimidation. the electoral commission says faustin-archange touadera won 53 % of the balance last sunday. he avoids a second round runoff with opposition candidates, who say the vote was flawed. many polling stations did not open on election day. rebels are reported to have attacked voters and staff. and groups allied with the former president seized a town 20 kilometers from the capital. prosecutors are investigating whether he tried to disrupt the ballots. >> people don't need weapons to take power. we have suffered so much. the president has done his best to bring the country forward in five years. that is why central africa is voting for him. >> i support another party. i am with the opposition group. but if the president won, it is because he deserves it. he has fought for this. host: we have been following the latest developments. reporter: in a press conference, the archrival says that the president has not won the

popular vote, adding to the eight other candidates who have launched a complaint, saying there were not enough people came out to vote. only half of the electorates came out to vote. 900,000 people. only 2000 stations were open because most of the country is not in the hands of armed groups just 20 kilometers away from the capital. they call themselves the coalition for patriotic change. they say that president touadera is not respecting the peace agreement and they want more of a say in the country's future, and more money. in the capital there are russian fighters who are trying to secure the capital, adding to that, rwandan troops sent by president to support the u.n. peacekeeping force of 12,000 people. despite all of these troops on the ground, the armed groups are continuing to make their advances towards the capital.

caught in all of this are the central african republic, who live in a country the size of french -- france, rich in minerals, and yet most live on dire poverty. most living on $2 a day. yet this has become a battleground between russia and the west. this election is supposed to resolve all of this, but so far it has failed to do so. host: first, let's take a closer look at the country's background. it's been struggling with violence since 2013, when a predominantly muslim group seized power and ousted the president. since then, subsequent waves of violence have worsened, leading to the deployment of about 12,000 u.n. peacekeepers to support the african union and french troops a year later. in 2019, a peace deal was signed between the government and 14 armed groups. but the violence did not end, and only intensified. the conflict has killed

thousands and displaced millions. ♪ let's bring in our guest. in brussels, a fellow at the institute for justice and reconciliation, a south africa based think tank and a former diplomat. a senior visiting fellow at the center for africa at the london school of economics. welcome to the program. it had been reported that definitive results from the selection were not expected before january 18, but we've already heard from the electoral commission announced that president touadera got 53% of the vote. is this is a prize? and if so, -- is this a surprise? and if so, what changed? >> it is not a surprise. there were not that many votes to count. only 910,000 registered voters,

so that is not much account. also perhaps there is not too much fuss about any potential, or allegedly electoral malpractice. so, you would imagine it was a pretty straightforward thing to do. it is not a surprise at all. host: did unrest keep voters from going to the polls? >> yes. in quite in number of places. -- quite a number of places, it was not secure and it was not safe. there's unrest. there's been at least 14 other, i think it was 18 different regions. there was no possibility for people to go and vote. so, yes. host: the opposition ed tried to delay the selection. -- had tried to delay this election. what happens next?

>> i think the opposition initially complained that perhaps there was electoral fraud. however, that has not been investigated. it's not so much of a big deal for this particular election. if you actually compare what happened in the central african republic -- some 700 polling stations could not operate and some 4000 polled at -- [indiscernible] if you compare that, you can say central african republic did much better. i think what happens next, really, is now that the election is over in the state is firmly in place, the government is settled, and you have a legitimately recognized

government in place, the main thing to happen next is to have a plan to go after the rebel movements, and all the other rebel factions. because the central african republic really has quite a large swathe of territory under government control, harboring rebel groups. if you don't deal with these rebel groups, they are going to cause havoc from time to time. it's a good thing a lot of international actors are in play. french, russian, all kind of contributing. the next thing is all these troops and really -- and reinforcements to really concentrate on a long-term plan to actually deal with rebel factions.

and work on what to do about the thick, unregulated forest areas. host: if i could ask you to expand on that point. first, can we talk about these armed groups? who are the groups that comprise these 14 groups? >> there is a whole range. but there are two major categories. one of them, roughly speaking, are the muslim groups from north, northeast, and northwest. the other are the groups that are christian. in these groups, they are more saudi central. they came into existence as a response mechanism to the others that marched in some six, seven

years ago. but within those two pillars, there's a variety of different groups that compete between each other, that compete over territory, that have their confrontations between each other. but also have their combined territories where they rule and are a major player. now, it's the accomplishment of touadera that needs to be recognized for that, that he's brought all these 14 players to the table and has signed a peace agreement that initially the international community and many others were downing would hold. but i -- were doubting that it would hold. but it did for a long time, until this year. the elections played a very important part in disrupting the

important peace deal. host: i saw you nodding to what some of peter was saying. did you want to jump in? >> yes. we could add that if the current peace deal is going to expand this year, then obviously we are looking at another reunification. it's quite important to note, though, that the peace deal signed in the past, 2012, 2019, in central african republic, never, ever satisfies all parties. partly because the rebel factions are under control. so in a long-term, if you want a peace deal that will hold long-term, you want to have a scenario where you actually have the rebel groups to deal with them.

someone has to be able to tell these rebel groups -- it's not a game that can be played any longer. so, between now and the next deal perhaps, really what interested parties want to think about is how best to plan effectively that they really want to deal with the rebel groups. interrupting the governance and -- host: a few moments ago you were talking about the fact that president touadera you believed deserved some recognition for his efforts. do you believe he is going to be able to unite a very divided central african republic? >> i'm extremely concerned. extremely concerned. try to imagine what happened. in early 2019, these 14 groups

signed the peace agreement. part of the peace agreement was they took up government positions. now, the next things you know, there's elections. these people knew from the very start that they would not stand a chance in the elections. so, to keep their positions that they were offered in the peace deal, they needed to do something. none of them participated in the elections as a candidate. so they needed to do something to make sure that they will keep some of the powers, some of the positions that they have. so they took up arms. and i'm not sure if touadera will have the position and the mandate to bring these people back to the negotiation table and offer them a position again.

this is going to be the challenge. are these people going to be guaranteed the compense that they can take up positions in the new government that will be formed? host: what do you think? will president touadera be able to unite the country going forward? >> i think the broader mandate for bringing the party together came under the auspicious -- all specimens of the -- i think that template will be used going forward. the current president will remain as the president. however, i think -- [indiscernible] i think perhaps at the table is when we start to see whether it is feasible, and how much political room is given to the

rebel factions. at the very least, if there's going to be room for them at the table, we have to think about disarmament as a precondition for that. host: let me interrupt you and just ask a quick follow-up. how much of the country is actually under control of these armed groups? >> let's just say that perhaps about at least 70% of the country is not under government control. let's put it that way. precisely how much is under rubble control, that is relevant to the central african republic, is debatable. because some of these areas are operated by rebel factions. that's really targeting uganda. we have rebel factions in this same territory targeting south sudan. we have rebel factions also playing games.

so basically cameron, drc, south sudan, the few countries around the central african republic, have rebel groups all stationed in the central african republic. at least 70% of the country is not under government control, but then not all the rebel factions are operating against the central african republic. a kind of a safe haven. not just for central african republic, but for the sake of all the other countries around. something really needs to be done about the unregulated forest regions in central african republic. host: the constitutional court rejected former president's presidential candidacy. they said that he did not satisfy the good morality requirement because of an arrest warrant and u.n. sanctions against him for allegedly ordering assassinations, torture, and other crimes when he was president. what is going to happen with

these investigations against the former president? are prosecutions going to be carried out? >> that is the idea, yes. will they be able to do it? it's difficult to say. but the idea is to bring him to justice. i think the constitutional courts could prove otherwise. of course the course they took was the only course they could take. it was obviously a starting point of many of the conflicts that are still in. now, on the point of the territory under control of the government, the interesting thing is when the 2019 peace agreement was signed, all of sudden, suddenly, the bigger, much bigger territory was under

control of the government, because the government changed the composition. the 14 rebel groups joined the government, then by definition, control of the territory was much bigger. what the elections did is disturbed that process. what's w -- that's what. so today, suddenly the government has no control of the territory, because the rebel groups are no longer a part of the government. so the big issue now will be, will the rebel groups rejoin the government, yes or no. and that is a very delicate situation and process that we will be seeing over the next couple months. host: how much of a disrupter candy former president be? how powerful does he remain? >> well, not too powerful, but

that's only because he has now joined up with the rebels. in 2021for example,these same patriots coalitions have changed. the current rebel coalition. in 2012, we're against him. they had another name then called coalition patriots, some other name. and he was against them and they were not going to agree on something else, and then the coup took place. so now he has joined the rebel factions, if you like. that has kind of empowered him to a certain extent. the power will depend on whether rebel factions want to incorporate him in as part of the chess game going forward.

but now that he has some specific allegations leveled against him, he's going to be isolated in the proceedings. there will be seats around the table to negotiate another peace deal and he will not be a candidate to sit around the table. and i think the rebel factions will be aware of that. one of the difficulties really is that in any peace deal, whether in 2019 or in the fut ure, one of the things the rebels are asking for is not just a hand in government, but also that their troops will be merged into the national army. that is a very difficult thing to actually achieve. because -- [indiscernible] it's something that is difficult

to work out. but we have to watch the space for that. host:@ i want to take a look at the humanitarian crisis enveloping the country. the u.n. says over half the population in the central african republic is in need of some form of humanitarian assistance. how worried are you that the already dire humanitarian circumstances there are only going to worsen because of the instability? >> well, the chances of that happening is extremely high. the political process will be delicate, but the humanitarian needs will be even more delicate. because don't forget, the rebels do not necessarily represent the people. they represent their own interests, not much more than the interests of the people. so the people have suffered in the hands of the rebels. and they will continue to suffer as long as the political process

does not come to a proper and positive outcome. all through 2019, and the first bits of 2020, the violence came down. the number of incidents came down. as a result of the peace agreement. the people were relieved. there was some form of going back to normal. and as our colleague just said, ddr and reconciliation was supposed to be part of the peace agreement. the ddr, the disarmament and reintegration of most of the rebels, is a process that has started. there is also a feeling among the people that that is giving a price, a bonus for being a rebel. so, the population also wanted to profit from these

reconciliations, it hasn't started. partly because of covid, partly because some of these processes are slow processes. so, my honest opinion is that the elections were too early in terms of timing. and the general population is going to suffer. host: if the situation continues to worsen, if the violence continues, i want to ask you a similar question. how much worse does it get for civilians? because violence against civilians and humanitarian workers in central african republic is still quite high, isn't it? >> yes, it is still quite high. and that adds more to the insecurity of the civilians. it does not bring confidence in government.

it does not help civilians to live in peace. one of the things which needs to happen is perhaps amending the mandate there. usually the general peacekeeping mandates is basically just to keep the peace. butif we -- but if we look at the role the u.n. troops played before the elections, it was more like enforcement. the rebels were advancing towards the capital and positioning themselves in advantage point. that is more like peace enforcement. that is the sort of activity you expect the troops to also be playing. so perhaps a revision of the mandate.

if the country is going to be able to deal with rebel factions and other security problems. host: we just have about one minute left. let me just ask you quickly, i know it is a big question, but what are the regional implications of continued violence and insecurity in central african republic? >> that's a huge question. don't forget, as my colleague just said, some of the regional powers are playing their own game in central african republic . so, there' s a lot at play. this new insecurity, new violence, is giving an opportunity to some neighboring states to regain their position snad -- and really take their position, it will be

tremendously, how do you say, bad. for not just central african republic, but the whole region. host: thank you so much to our guests. and thank you too for watching. you can see the program again any time by going to our website or our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter, @ajins idestory. bye for now. ♪

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