anchor: alexey navalny has been sent back to jail where he will spend one or two years in prison for violating terms of his parole, by traveling to germany for life-saving treatment after he was poisoned. his lawyers will appeal his conviction. hundreds of supporters were detained as they gathered to protest against the ruling. the u.s., germany and the eu are all calling for his immediate release. there have been public displays of anger against the military coup in myanmar.

the biggest city, banging pots. she has moved into house arrest. scientists aa covid-19 variant found in u.k. has further mutated in a way that could help in data vaccines. tests show it is similar to south africa and brazil. the uk's tightening measures to control the spread of new strains. the government is also working with pharmaceutical companies to identify whether vaccines need to be modified to tackle the variants. the u.s. has rejected a call from iran to revive the nuclear deal, a spokesman said it is too early, in toronto must come back into full compliance. the foreign minister proposed. the u.s. left the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimpose sanctions.

since then, iran has enriched uranium enrichment levels beyond the limits set out in the agreement. joe biden has signed a series of executive orders aimed at reversing donald trump's hard-line immigration policies, including the creation of a task force to reunite hundreds of children separated from their families under trump's zero-tolerance policy. there will also be a review of the asylum process at the border with mexico. those were the headlines. the news continues here on al jazeera with inside story. a reminder you can keep up with all the news on our website, al jazeera.com. stay tuned. ♪ >> condemnation by world leaders

and growing calls for action. military leaders may have seized full control of myanmar, but they are facing mounting pressure to handed back. what can the internatial community do to restore democracy? this is inside story. ♪ anchor: welcome to the program. you have been criticized as a serious blow to democracy. world leaders have been swift in condemning the coup. the international community is demanding democracy be restored, and is calling for the release of the defective leader and other senior leaders. the national league of democracy wants its landslide victory recognized. power is now in the hands of a

general, who has appointed his own cabinet. the coup leaders say the takeover is temporary, they have promised elections in one year. but that has not stepped -- stop threats of sanctions by the u.s. and the un security council. >> the primary concern is the people of myanmar, or obviously in a state of shock,. afraid of what is going on. this is actually an outrageous, unacceptable action by the military. the people of myanmar need to know that we are with them, we stand with them, and will act for them, and put them, to address this catastrophe. they are not alone. there should be strong responses from all countries. there needs to be put on the table, a series of specific actions that can and should be taken. then we have to move as strongly as we can to see that the

international community takes those actions. is it going to be a challenge? yes. kim: u.s. president joe biden has threatened to reimpose sanctions on myanmar, formerly known as burma. and a statement he says the international should come together in one voice, release the activists and officials detained. the united states removed sanctions on burma over the last decade based on progress toward democracy. the reversal of that progress will necessitate an immediate review of our sanctions. followed by appropriate action. let's hava look at other countries reactions. the eu councile president has condemned the military seizure of power and called for release of those arrested. boris johnson also criticized the coup, saying the vote of the people must be respected, and civilian leaders released. china only said it noted the events and called on all sides to respect the constitution.

thailand's deputy prime minister, who has close ties with the military, described the coup as a domestic issue. in india, the prime minister said his country was steadfast in supporting myanmar's democratic transition. ♪ kim: let's bring in our guests in london. michael, professor and chair of asian and military history. author of a history of modern burma. are the guest is amy and mark historian at the center for asian studies at northern illinois university. in washington dc, paul, emr campaign leader and global witness. big welcome to you all. thank you for joining us. the west is roundly condemned the good -- the coup. u.s. president biden is

threatening to impose sanctions. how much leverage the u.s. really have? >> this is only day two of the coup. the leverage is the highest at the very beginning. i would say that the international powers, stay hard at the beginning, because the situation is very confusing. the military is confused and scared. that is why they have to convince the international that they are acting according to the constitution, that they will hand over the power in one year. but history again and again shows us that they never honor their word. i think at the very beginning, deliver it -- the leverage is the highest. kim: what is your take? do you think biden has leverage right now? his first big international challenge, first big foreign

policy challenge. how do you think he is likely to respond? given all of joe biden's talk about leaning on america's allies. >> i think the u.s. does have some leverage. to make it clear, the u.s. does not have the unilateral level it once had. whatever pressure the u.s. puts on, the prc was complemented. with the u.s. does have leverage his other partners. you will possibly have some stepping back to the military, whatever pressure the u.s. can put on its allies to put pressure on myanmar. kim: we will talk a little later about that. i would like to bring in paul. what about the european union? the european parliament president saying europeans are united in condemning the coup. but beyond words of condemnation, what can or should the european union be doing?

>> things rapidly. -- thanks for having me. that you should be moving quickly to reimpose sanctions on the military and make clear that if they do not return power, they will move forward with actions. i think it is important that the u.s. move forward in concert with their partners in the eu, u.k., and as the professor said, in ozzie on. the u.s. does have limited leverage economically, there is madrid u.s. businesses in myanmar. but there is power in considered action. kim: as you said, this is only day to. from what we have seen so far, how the generals are acting, how likely do you think it is that they are going to listen to these international calls for a return to democracy? >> it will be a combination of

the inside pressure and international pressure. international pressure never works on its own, because as mike and paul already stated, there are conflicted interests. i would say that the biggest pressure will come domestically. people already rally today. the doctors from mandalay started civil disobedience movements. they are not going to go to work. for departments, different government offices will put on similar pressures. i would like to emphasize, we talk about the nld, taking power by the military, but this is not the nld on its own. there are different parties. nld one the landslide.

we have to keep in mind that this is also democratic elections, even though the military declared that this is unfair, that is why they stage the coup, that all different democratic forces, not just the nld, but democratic forces that were sidelined since 2011. they will come rally behind this, antimilitary, anti-coup movement. this is not just nld versus military. this is all of the democratic forces now united, against the coup. the domestic forces will be the power, the power will be highest. a combination of internal and external pressures could work. kim: if we look broadly at the impact this will have on the whole region, there are complex on the border of china and that will --. how is what we are seeing now

-- >> right now this is going to be bad for the peace process dealing with the ethnic minorities. i think mentioned about military having lied in the past, the idea that the country would return to the same type of leadership, means they can expect fewer concessions, more aggression from the government. this will be very destabilizing for ethnic minorities. it means we will not move very far with any resolutions. i don't think there is an issue with regional powers reacting, because within asia, japan is trying to out maneuver china, they are not going to take the side of the military. china is not going to take sides against the military. bag with us can't really do much

-- bangladesh can't really do much. i do not expect he will have a lot of regional change, i think it will make the situation worse. kim: talking there about ethnic minorities. paul, what concerns you have about the further erosion of human rights, freedom of speech, potential ethnic violence in the country, now that the military is fully empower them since it will be for the next year? >> gravely concerned that the conflict will increase. there is concern that the military will take control of communications channels. they did that after the coup, cutting off communications. there is concern that the military will crackdown, that ethic groups will resist that,

antimilitary will try and make advances. there is concern this will lead to more violence and more human rights abuses, and stoke at the conflict. kim: from talk about geopolitics and the reverberations of this coup, we cannot be got china, myanmar's neighbor. it has invested billions of thousand myanmar. how do you see china responding as international calls for the release of the leader, restoration of democracy? >> china has as much interest as the rest of the world. china is the first country to visit right after the elections. in january, the chinese foreign minister came to talk to the leader and they outlined -- the relationship between the nld government and china has been warmed. china has as much interest as the rest of the world to resort democracy.

-- restore democracy. we cannot isolate china and said they could derail the process, if it is in the un security council, they could walk behind the doors. they could talk to the armed forces, the minority forces as well. china has a lot of leverage inside the country. kim: do you agree with that? is china as interested as the rest of the world and the restoration of democracy? what is china's relationship with the military? >> china has interest in irma being stable. i would say she is right. they would be better off if there was a return to the nld government, so they would have an investment in that. on the other hand, china has a cautious approach, less aggressive and pushy than the

united states. it already appears to be the case they were involved in negotiations between the nld and the military for a couple days before the event happened. china is interested, concerned, it will not push too hard, but it should be on the side of restoring the status quo. kim: what is your take on the role of china? >> i agree with both of our guests. china has a big role to play, a very complex and historical, economic relationship, they have a lot invested in myanmar. it is a big risk for china to side with the military. there is already a lot of anti-china sentiment in myanmar amongst civil society, and if they are seen as taking the side of the military, i think it is going to make the initiative much more challenging if there is a return to democracy. kim: we touched on earlier, i

want to talk about bengal -- -- bangladesh. what is this going to mean for repatriation efforts, in are those who are still in myanmar at heightened risk? >> i would like to say that the coup is the violence that minorities face at side of the city. there is a violence that reaches the cities in the name of code. all of the minorities have experienced violence since the quasi-civilian government came to power in 2011. i want to emphasize that when we talk about restoring democracy, we also talk about the mechanism that is safeguarding this, the

2008 constitution. that infrastructure has been built on the quagmire. unless we address that very issue, where the international community rallies behind, a we address that 2008 constitution, unless we abolish it, ethnic minorities will stay in danger or threatened. the minorities are the same, the same constitution centered the power of the military. kim: what might this mean for the international pressure to prosecute or hold to account me in mars military for the atrocity committed against them? >> i think we can all agree that the military and the constitution is the problem.

i think we might also agree that that whole issue has hurt credibility, whether they agree with her or not. it has hurt her reputation as an international human rights icon, regarding her support of democracy. i think it won't be quite as strong as it might have been in the 1990's, early 2000s. kim: beyond economic sanctions, what else could the international community be doing? arms embargo? but that make a difference? >> that would be a good first step. the un security council is meeting today to discuss myanmar. we are deafly supporting an arms embargo.

there are other things. one is speaking in one voice to say that this is not acceptable, the military need to release the political detainees, need to restore the parliament, needs to reinstate the rule of law. otherwise, there are things that the international community could do in terms of the business community, in terms of social media, ensuring that facebook does not allow the military to use its platform to promote its self and its activities. there have been calls for that as well. kim: just following on from that. according to the world bank, singapore was the largest investor in myanmar. how, second. -- hong kong was second. who standso lose the most? >> like paul was saying, there are two things.

technology has a very quick repercussions. it is one thing that international communities can pressure right away, after 2017 crisis, facebook banned a lot of military accounts and they had to migrate to russian service. also, a lot of people inside are worried that this information campaign will start by the military. to instigate violence and also to trash the disobedience movement. this needs to be quick action. sanctions are very limited. for me, i cannot stay open a bank account, because of my

citizenship status. they stay in effect. they are not lifted. in that sense, that will be limited. kim: the u.n. special repertoire was on this program yesterday, saying the military needs to hear the international community will not set are the by. what can it do, particular in the context of the un security council? will china and russia look to shield the generals? >> i don't think you will see action from the security council. the russian and prc boycott will veto any collective action. the biggest leverage, the biggest thing the international community can do is do things like freeze the bank accounts of generals and the families, put pressure on companies.

targeted sanctions against individuals. these kinds of things work. the underlying rules of this game, generals want to secure futures of their families. china has a lot of investment. whatever you can do to influence ends directly hit the policymakers. that is going to have the biggest effect. kim: what is the association of southeast asian nations likely to do here? what are the regional calculations? >> they have been saying that this is an internal affair. we have to remember that thailand itself headache who in 2014, the biden administration said they share the interests in the end of pacific, so they offered to cooperate.

as time goes on, it has been normalized. that is what i am are about. making sure that civil movements will not be crushed. i am really worried that there will be real blood on the streets. the tanks have been circulating in front of my mom's house, everywhere. this is a real physical threat. kim: the military's power, even as the country was moving towards democracy, it has been on display for a very long time. its power was enshrined in the 2008 constitution, crafted by the military, which provided a legal channel for the military to reimpose direct military role. is it fair for all this outrage to be happening now from the international community, when one could say the writing has been on the wall for a very long time? >> that's true that the

constitution does give an avenue for this action. that being said, this is an action against the will of the people, over 83% of people who voted for the nld in the last election. i don't think that we can say that this is a purely legal move by the military. i do have to say, i want to emphasize that the grave threat that civil society and the people of myanmar on the right now, we have colleagues who are in hiding. there are tanks on the streets. they just called for people to come out and to resist the military. there is a real danger that based on past experiences, we could see bloodshed and violence. i think there is a responsibility on the part of the international community, on the part of china and other neighbors to call for the

military to exercise restraint, to abide by the rule of law. kim: we are nearing the end of the program. i want to end with putting that same question to you michael. was the writing on the wall? >> we have a disagreement about this, i do think the writing was on the wall. i think the nld has some response ability -- responsibility for accepting the constitution. the thing that worries me the most is banning flights in and out of the country for the next four or five months, until the end of may. we do not know what is going to happen to civil society groups and leaders on the ground. that is what worries me most. kim: a big thank you to all of our guests. we appreciate it. thank you, too for watching.

for further discussion you can go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter, for me, and the whole team here, goodbye for now. ♪ ♪ >> make a change. upturned the status quote and fight injustice. witness personal documentaries.

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