well as oppose interference by external forces. ♪ >> this is "al jazeera." the u.s. senate has voted to go ahead with the second impeachment trial of former president donald trump. how's impeachment managers rejected the defense's argument it is unconstitutional to try a former president. we have the latest now from capitol hill. reporter: this is really an appetizer for what is going to come in the next couple of days. both sides out their arguments. ashen silly -- essentially saying you can't hold them or sponsor. the democrats are not saying would have the generous six --

january 6 was appalling. >> myanmar's national league for democracy says police have rated it headquarters. it is a political movement led by the leader. nearly 60 hours after the flooding of a tunnel in the indian state, rescue teams have managed to clear enough debris to enter the structure. 35 workmen are trapped. 30 people have died. a court in poland has ordered two prominent holocaust researchers to apologize for suggesting a polish man helped kill jews during the second world war. the family argue he saved jews during the german occupation and reject the testimony connecting him to the death of 18 people. the authors plan to appeal. they say the ruling jeopardizes independent research.

rival factions have strengthened their commitment to holding the first elections for palestinians in 15 years. they agreed to respective results of parliamentary and residential -- and presidential votes made in july. the palestinian government has been divided in hamas and gaza. a humanitarian crisis is unfolding in chile, where thousands of mostly been his will and migrants have entered through the border with bolivia. locals say they have been overwhelmed by people seeking food, shelter, and warm clothes. you are up-to-date with the headlines. we have more news coming up after "inside story." my for now -- bye for now.

mohammed: who is in charge in somalia? the president's term has expired. opposition groups won't recognize his authority. and no one knows when elections will take place. so, what happens if this political deadlock drags on? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, welcome to the program. i am mohammed jamjoom. somalia is facing a power vacuum. elections were supposed to take place before the president's four-year term expired on monday. but mohamed abdullahi farmaajo is in dispute with regional leaders over how to hold the vote. talks between the central government and mogadishu and somalia's five federal states collapsed on friday.

farmajo says the leaders are scuttling a deal to hold indirect parliamentary elections. but they accuse farmajo of trying to remove power from them. opposition parties say a counsel of politicians and civil society groups should govern for now. our diplomatic editor, james b., has more. reporter: it was supposed to be presidential election day and somalia. -- in somalia. but following a dispute over the way the poll was to be organized, it has not happened. instead, a coalition of opposition candidates have now declared the government of president farmajo illegitimate. in an interview to be broadcast on talk to al jazeera, the foreign minister told me that is wrong, the government will stay in office until an election can be held. well, after that time, after that four years, he's no longer legitimately president. >> no, there cannot be a vacuum. the federal parliament in both chambers have signed, voted for,

by a majority of 215 in the lower house and 40 senators, to have a law that would allow for the parliament, with its full authority, to continue with its mandate, and for all the institutns of the federal government to continue. reporter: the u.n. is urging all sides to get back to the negotiation table, but it will not rule on the constitutional position. >> it is not for the united nations, in any setting, to anoint a government declared a legitimate or not legitimate. -- declared legitimate or not legitite. they are institutions that are in place, that have been agreed to, that have been negotiated. we believe that somali political leaders need to come together. reporter: whether you think the government is legitimate or illegitimate, somalia now finds itself in a constitutional gray zone. this, in what was supposed to be a pivotal year for the troubled country. this year, the african union

force is supposed to hand over its responsibilities to the somalia national army, but most experts believe it is not yet equipped to take the lead role. the group most likely to benefit from the current political crisis is al-shabab, which continues to fight the african union force and the somali government. james b., al jazeera, the united nations. mohammed: somalia has had a long struggle to restore stability. its civil war led to the collapse of the governmeal authority, the armed group, al-shabab, controlled large areas of the country, and many other regions declared autonomy. in 2012, government and african union forces recaptured the capital, mogadishu, and successfully pushed back al-shabab. a parliament was sworn in and voted in a new president, but the government has struggled to assert its authority beyond mogadishu, and efforts to hold direct elections have failed. ♪ let's bring in our guests, in nairobi, kenya, matt bryden, strategic adviser at sahan research and former coordinator of the united nations monitoring

group on somalia and eritrea. in the somali capital, mogadishu, hodan ali, development and humanitarian expert and co-founder of leadnow, a somali women's political pressure group. and in doha, afyare elmi, professor of international relations at qatar university. a warm welcome to you all. hodan, let me start with you today. what sparked this election impasse and political crisis? what are the issues at play here? hodan: thank you for having me on the show. that is really an important question. for ite some time now, we have been back-and-forth around finding political solutions around the elections, the pending elections. unfortunately, today, we don't have a consensus on a political election model that all stakeholders are happy with. as you know, we have had multiple meetings between the

federal member state presidents and president farmajo that have ended without any political agreement. on september 17, however, there was an agreement that was signed by fms and the president and parliament that charted a way forward on an election model. everyone agreed on that, but the implementation of that has been quite contentious. there are a few key items that have been outstanding that the leadership has not found a way forward on. one is the election itself and the personnel that constituted. two, issues around the ghetto region and what the electoral process should look like. number three, the delegates from somalian participation in the selection of future mp's for

that region. those are the main contentious issues we have not been able to come to consensus and really has brought the country into an unprecedented spot that we are currently, as you mentioned earlier, trying to find a way forward. mohammed: what makes this political crisis different from political crises in the past? how much worse is it? of course, there have been political deadlocks numerous times in the past and somalia. -- in somalia. there been timelines to agreements that have not been adhered to. why is this different, and is it much worse? afyare: thank you. and actually, hodan explained it well. but this is different, simply because we have never been in a situation where we do not have election, selection, whatever you call it, or a political agreement. normally, i mean, almost all of the previous administrations missed it, or could not deliver proper elections.

i'm talking directly about one person, one vote elections. but what they did was, they were able to negotiate with either a term extension for some sort of indirect elections. -- or some sort of indirect elections. and here, we have neither, and the term ended. the term ended completely, and neither the parliament nor the president can actually extend themselves, because parliament itself has expired in december. so we are in a very actually precarious situation at the moment, and it is because of the government's failure. because it has been given this task since the beginning, and they knew it. so they failed to deliver elections, sections, whatever you call it, or some sort of political agreement. so this is a unique situation that has not happened for the past 20 years.

mohammed: matt, there are those who are blaming this crisis on the president, saying that he is trying to grab more power, that he is trying to create a stronger federal state. then there are those who blame the leaders of the parliament, because they refuse to sign the pact introducing the new electoral model. from your vantage point, who is more to blame, is it both, or one side or the other? matt: i would have to agree with afyare elmi. i think really, the balance of the responsibility lies with the federal government. first of all, there has been a pattern since president farmajo took office of trying to diminish, and then eventually to subjugate the federal member states, not just those two. so there used to be a top-level political forum under the previous government, where the federal president and the state

presidents would meet. president farmajo disbanded that counsel when he took office. he set up a national security council, which was only able to meet a couple of times before it became too acrimonious and was not convened again. agreements on, or let's say, agreements in principle on federal architecture were discarded by the federal government, especially as far as security, natural resources, and revenues were concerned. so the federal member states have really felt as though mogadishu, president farmajo, in particular, have been trying to dismantle the essence of federalism, establish a monopoly on resources, and sideline. i should just add, the federal government aggressively interfered in elections in three federal member states to have its own loyalists appointed. so there's a great deal of mistrust and suspicion from the way the federal government has

behaved. and now, this argument that parliament has extended its own term of office, the president has extended until an indefinite period in the future, when elections may be held. i think it just deepens the divide even further. and makes it harder to bring all the stakeholders back to the table. mohammed: the u.n. and african union have warned against any attempt of holding partial elections for any process that -- or any process that does not have broad consensus and somalia. -- in somalia. is there a risk that could happen going forward, and what would be ramifications be? hodan: i think we have to look at the recent history of somalia, right? so we have had a pretty successful transfer -- a pretty peaceful transfer of power for the last couple election cycles. somalia really hails within africa as a model for footprints of democracy.

and i think in terms of the context of the cracks of the problem now, this could have been foreseen. this is not an issue or misunderstanding that came about in the last month or two. i think part of the blame, or the fault, lies not just with the federal government, but also the international community has a role to play. starting from the challenges that arose in 2018. this could have been foreshadowed. the relationships have been ruined, or have been nonexistent for quite some time. the lack of clarity and interventions, one opportunity missed after the other, i think speaks loud of the failure on their part.

it is a political mission that is supposed to support somalia, build its political processes, right? it is a country that has n finalized its constitution. which has been a challenge that we have every time there is an election. there are always challenges, because we don't have the institutions or government structures to sort these issues ahead of time. so i think with this idea that the ic community now are concerned about volatility or really a severe political fallout is, i think, disingenuous. we need clarity, we need leadership, and call out for -- call out what is unjust. not dance around issues. we know there are real challenges and personal politics involved in the current impasse. we need to address it and move

this country forward. we have made significant progress in the last decade or so. and i think afyare mentioned, who is winning in this impasse is al-shabab. and somalia has internal and external enemies that will see this as an opportunity to attack. so therefore, i think the community has an obligation to make sure there's clarity, but also make sure that -- i mean, yes, there's challenges -- mohammed: i'm sorry to interrupt. but let me pick up on that point and send the question over to afyare. because hodan was talking about the security vacuum in somalia right now. and al-shabab, perhaps being able to take advantage of that. what are your thoughts on that? afyare: well, this is actually a reality. obviously, it is not only al-shabab. whenever there is a political problem, all kinds of actors take advantage. whether they are ariminal

group, some political group, or al-shabab, you name it. this is a reality. i think that is why many are warning about this eventuality. this has been foreseen earlier. it was very unfortunate that we ended up in a situation where we do not know what to do, and everybody's just -- interpreting this provisional constitution. i am one of the people who believe this extension business is neither politically acceptable nor legally correct. i am one of those people who believe that, simply because you cannot -- the primacy of the law is usually with the constitution. the constitution is clear, it is four years.

there's modality for what they call amendments, and that has not been followed. in my view, this whole business lacks competency or capacity and the will of the politicians mostly. and i blame the federal government, simply because they have the bigger responsibility. they have been given this task. they knew that we are technically beyond the transition, but in reality, we are facing all kind of transitions, whether it is security, the constitution, whether it is elections, all kind of things. and unfortunately, here, after four years, we have nothing. i think the price has to be paid by those who led the country into the situation. mohammed: matt, i saw you nodding along to a lot of what afyare was saying there. if you would like to jump in, please go ahead. matt: i completely agree.

there are three core tasks that the somali government has to complete. because, as afyare said, the constitution is incomplete, it is a provisional constitution. and actually, that means we have a provisional government of sorts. these three tasks are to review and amend the constitution, to make it final, to elaborate and complete federal architecture, so all the legislation and the political agreements required between the center and the regions, and finalize a democratic system of representation and election that will help the country to unify rather than pull it apart, when it is finally used. this government really made no effort along those lines. if anything, the federation is weaker, security has backtracked over the last four years, and al-shabab is benefiting from the situation.

but i would go further and say that al-shabab has actually benefited under the government of president farmajo, building a shadow state that is more deeply rooted now in somali society than perhaps anytime before. mohammed: what are the implications at play here for the region, for the horn of africa? hodan: if i could just make a comment around the delay in the extension. this is not the first time the government has run out of mandates. in the past, there have been political agreements to get to and through an election by previous governments, as well. one president had six months. one had one year. so this is not new. what we have not seen before is this lack of political agreement on an extension to implement the election model. in terms of regional

consequence, i think we all know somalia is strategically located in the horn of africa, where security implications are possible, and all other sort of fallouts can happen. but i think it is important that the doom and gloom that has been foreshadowed because we have not agreed on an election process is worrisome, in the sense that it is creating unrest in ways that are not helping productively in the things we have made. yes, there needs to be consensus coming to the table. figure it out and let's move on with an election process that everyone is happy with. however, the statements of delegitimizing the current government, the current president, i think, really sets back somalia's progress somewhat. yes, there are challenges that we need to address, but overall,

i think what we need to do is to be solution oriented and figure out a way to get this country on track to an election process that everyone is content with, and that in the end, the legitimacy of the outcome is not questioned. that will be the actual doom and gloom that we are asking for, is, in the end, an election process happens, and there is not an agreement or a consensus around the outcome. mohammed: afyare, is there anybody amongst the opposition in somalia who poses a real threat politically to the president right now? does he have a rival who is a real viable challenger for leadership? afyare: in somalia, it is extremely difficult to actually say anything or even predict what is going to happen or who can politically challenge. the reality here is that two former presidents and some

former prime ministers, a number of former ministers, who are all trying to challenge the president, when the parliament is elected. at the moment, we don't know who stands where, who is ahead of who, or any polling thing that we can actually point out. so what we have is people who are saying, we want a run for president, and that is all. when we have a parliament in place, then we will be able to predict somewhat how one is ranked over another. i couldn't say much on that. what i want to just point out here is that i agree with hodan and matt that we go for a solution, what are the ways to go to get out of this stalemate? i will say what i am thinking. mohammed: matt, we have talked already about the political dimensions, the security aspect when it comes to all of this and what is going on in somalia.

but i want to look for a moment towards a humanitarian situation in somalia. -- towards the humanitarian situation in somalia. there are so many in somalia who are in need of aid, there have been floods, locust infestations, the pandemic, conflict. how dire is the humanitarian situation right now, and is there a chance that this political stalemate, this crisis could make things worse? matt: the humanitarian situation is precarious. it often is in somalia, just given the climate and the demographics, and the fact that it has not really had a functioning central government for so long. although it has made progress in recent years. i think that these sort of political wrangles are well above affecting the daily lives of ordinary somalis. much of somalia is either without administration or is administered by local government

-- local governments under the auspices of federal member states. the federal government itself is essentially combined to mogadishu and has some influence in neighboring districts. so i think the real danger in terms of the humanitarian situation is, if this political and constitutional crisis is not resolved, that we could see a return to armed conflict in some parts of the country. as you may have heard, on midnight, on the last day of president farmajo's term of office, on the night of the seventh, mogadishu erupted in a display of celebratory gunfire, that i personally have not seen since the dictator was chased from the country in 2002. so tensions are really running high. the opposition, many of them mogadishu-based, have said clearly they do not recognize this government.

and i think the need for a solution is not just to help move things forward politically, but it is to avoid things spiraling into an even worse situation. so i would agree with the other two speakers. i think we need to focus on the fastest and most effective way forward. to rescue, to salvage the situation. mohammed: hodan, i'm going to ask you to keep your answer brief, what are you hearing from people in mogadishu about all this? are they paying attention, are they concerned? what do you hear from people on the ground? hodan: i respectfully disagree with matt. i think the people in mogadishu are going around about their business. yes, the political elite are very involved in moving around this issue, but the average citizen in the city is going about their way. in terms of actual tensions, yes, there was some gunfire at midnight on the seventh,

technically the eighth, but it is not at a level where people are fearing that it is going to lead to violence. ultimately, i think what we need to sort of understand is this will also pass. i don't think somalia is going to retract into violence. but what we really need to stay clear of is the rhetoric that is heating up and making the country more unstable than it actually is. yes, we need to come up with solutions and pass an electoral model that everyone is satisfied with, but not to the detriment or the backtracking of the state of affairs for this country. mohammed: we've run out of time. we will have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to all of our guests, matt bryden, hodan ali, and afyare elmi. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the

conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, mohammed jamjoom, and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪

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