>> this is al jazeera and these are your top stories. prince philip, queen elizabeth's husband has died at the age of 99. he was married to the green for 73 years. the royal family has now entered an official period of mourning. tributes have been pouring in from around the world. prince philip was praised for helping to modernize the british monarchy, but he was occasionally prone to g affes and suddenly impromptu

remarks. in other news, the medical examiner who performed the early autopsy on george floyd said he died from neck restraint, not drugs. he said floyd did have underlying health issues and evidence of drug use, but neither directly caused his death. >> those events will cause stress hormones to pour out of your body like adrenaline. it is going to ask your heart to be faster. it will ask your body for more oxygen so that you can get through that altercation. and, in my opinion, the law enforcement some dual restraint of the neck was more than mr. floyd could take by virtue of those heart conditions. mr. floyd's use of fentanyl did not cause the neck restraint. his heart disease did not cause the neck restraint. anchor: 19 people have been sentenced to death in myanmar over the death of an army officer's associate as a military crackdown continues

after february's cool. rescue workers say four people have been killed, but it is thought that the true number could be higher. about 200 trouble fighters have been reportedly killed by security forces in the central african republic. witnesses told al jazeera that government troops and forces surrounded the town and attacked rebel bases. a veteran greek crime journalist has been shot dead outside his home in athens. police say that georges karaivaz was killed by gunmen on a motorbike. he is. he was one of the best crime reporters. is "inside story." more news in about 30 minutes. you then. -- see you then. ♪

>> facing an isil threat in northern mozambique, leaders in southern africa are considered in deployment. but is military intervention the answer? and does isil have a new foothold in southern africa? this is "inside story." ♪ >> hello and welcome to the program. mozambique has seen a rise in attacks across its northern region in recent months. dozens of people were killed when iso linked fighters rated a hotel in the northern town of palma last month. now it has emerged 12 of the victims, possibly foreigners, were beheaded during the siege.

southern african leaders are trying to come up with a response to the growing crisis. we will bring in our guest shortly. first, this report. reporter: the struggle was evident. when islamic state fighters invaded the town of palma in march, this hotel was rated too. they police officers that he found the reception overturned and rooms littered with victim'' clothing. >> this is a hotel that hosted many foreigners at the time of the attack. many foreigners but it was the best place to find protection, so they ran here. they had security butothe insurgents were stronger. they took 12 citizens of different nationalities, tied them up and beheaded them. reporter: he points to a patch of earth. he said he buried the bodies here himself. this is only the latest offensive by iso-linked groups in mozambique and what has

become an especially violent month. in a coordinated attack, insurgents seized this coastal town that lies close to a multibillion-dollar liquid natural gas project that is crucial for the mozambique economy. the assault claimed dozens of lives. the un says more than 11,000 were forced to flee. the northern province of cabo delgado has seen an increase in fighting since 2015. some believe iso-fighters are trying to establish a caliphate here, that regional leaders say they will not let it happen. >> the recent attacks in the town of palma have demonstrated the magnitude of the problem at our doorsteps. reporter: on thursday, a delegation of 16 southern african countries met to discuss the latest violence in mozambique. the southern african development community is charged with finding a solution to the unrest. in eight-week, the president of zimbabwe said the summit agreed that the sadc force should be

resuscitated and capacity to immediately so they can intervene. the violent escalation of an insurgency in the north of the country has sparked fresh concerns about security in southern africa, a region that has enjoyed relative stability in recent decades, but with these recurring attacks, hope is scattered. leah harding, al jazeera. hashem: let's take a closer look at a possible resurgence of iso. the large group was defeated in iraq and syria, but 10,000 fighters remained active in the region. iso has found a new lifeline in parts of africa by forging alliances with local armed groups. according to the u.s. defense department, violence associated with those groups rose by 43% last year, and the number of attacks led by axel across africa has grown by more than one third. ♪

for more on this, i am joined by our guest in london, joseph is a visiting fellow at the london school of economics and author of several books on mozambique, including a decade of mozambique latex, economy and society, 2004-2013. and also the executive director of the northern center for conflict transformation. and a research fellow from george washington university program. welcome to the program. joseph, do we know who these people are locally known as the terrorists at the center of the insurgency in northern mozambique? >> they are local people. in the recent attack on palma, they were identified in some cases as being local people. the war started in 2017.

it is about inequality, it is about an exclusion and about not benefiting from the resource wealth, from the rubies, from the gas. and people feeling like they are marginalized, and especially young people feel like they have no future. so they initially became part of an islamist-separatist sect that simply wanted to separate out locally. but then what happened was, the government and other muslim leaders wanted to attack. so they felt they had to attack the government. so they began an insurgency against the government. what was interesting is over the next couple of years, they got huge local support. sadly we had quite a large war.

hashem: are they likely to expand their grievances to an ideology and say we want to establish a caliphate of our own in this part of the work? >> yes. the case for mozambique, it has to be linked to the historical circumstances of the country. however, there are a few indications that say it is not only about the inequality and the socioeconomic issues that the locals are living in, but also that the mozambican government is unlikely to sustain military presence in a few areas, for example, the cabo delgado, where the extremists are established. and also the land, now with conflict in it, is almost going to be declared as no man's land.

that is very favorable to terrorist organizations, and the locals. the second thing is that there will be some grievances even within this conflict ongoing because of the excessive retaliation of the government on the people. hashem: before we go into more detail into exactly what happened in cabo delgado and palmer, i want to include ayman. do we know what links these people have with the islamic state? are they an affiliate? is that a genuine umbrella organization that is affiliated to them, or is it blown out of proportion by other people? >> that is a good question. the fact that he islamic state officially advertises on a regular basis the operations by

these insurgents in mozambique, shows there is some kind of link. it does not necessarily mean there is a command and control of what you might call the united states central like in iraq and syria where they might give guidance on conducting the insurgency. but the fact is the operations of these insurgents in mozambique appearing in the newsletter of the islamic state, in the news outlet of islamic state. so there is some kind of communication going on. also, these insurgents in mozambique come to the islamic state central african progress. the fact that they have been allocated as an additional province, as it is so-called, of the, shows there is an ideological link.

so i would redirect with the previous test said about the local grievances, and they do need to be taken account. on the other hand, there is a very clear ideological link to the islamic state. this did not emerge in a vacuum, have been underground for years with al-shabab, fundamentalists, and so forth. hashem: you spoke earlier about the disenfranchisement of the people there. this is an area particularly, cabo delgado, where with the ruby deposits and the liquefied natural gas, it is going to be able to transform the country into a new basis of wealth. that did not happen. could it be that the insurgents, the armed groups government andr demands are legitimate because

we have been abandoned to our own elite? >> oh, yes. that is the whole point. but i want to go back to the previous statement. basis has not had any contact with al-shabab for almost a year. if you go back and look, there was a link that in may or june of last week, was broken -- of last year, was broken. isis had stopped making claims about the victories. if you look at the recent claim on palma, it is fairly fake news. the pictures and videos that they used were from a summit last year. so the isis claim was totally fake. what it indicates is the lack of contact. they couldn't get current information on what the

insurgents were doing because the insurgents were not talking to them. it is because one of the changes that took place, again, last year, is that the first thing they do when they go into an area is they cut the telephone links. this is very simple stuff, it is moshe -- machetes going through fiber-optic cables. the raid started at 4 p.m. and by 4:30 p.m., a the telephone links were down. there have not been telephone links except by satellite phones, which the insurgents don't appear to have. and so what happened is that isis literally had to fake that report. i think the very nature of that claim shows that isis is not involved anymore and we shouldn't be seeing this as a province of isis. this is local insurgents who have said we are not interested in isis anymore, they did not do

us any good. hashem: noufal, what would isis or the islamic state gain from a franchise in southern africa. isis has historically been established in its own safe havens in the middle east, particularly syria and iraq, with a total set of narratives about who they are and what they would like to achieve. when you see that message itself is blurred when it comes to africa in particular? >> exactly. we know how isil operates. it operates through what i call vacuums. either the media vacuum or the government vacuum or a security vacuum. in terms of the media vacuum, everyone was focusing on covid-19. the mozambique news was not out there. and we have been seeing movements from highs will --

from isil trying to become someone else. now they are trying to come into mozambique. some analysts share the same opinion, that there is some kind of a marriage of convenience. a marriage of convenience between the locals in terms of al-shabab, and some isil members. isil are not looking for gains in wasn't big, what they are looking for is perception. we have been defeated in iraq and syria, but we are growing and going somewhere else. it is very important -- the point they might use is that they are not going to an islamic country, they are going to a democratic country, and also a coastal country. it is very symbolic that they are trying to hold on and claim that they are controlling a port. so it is a marriage of convenience.

hashem: aymenn, we have reached a point where it has become almost impossible to identify the groups operating in africa, those affiliated with al qaeda and those affiliated with the islamic state. there is all this talk about islamic state in west africa, in the sahara, in east africa and in south africa, but when you look at the chain of command, it doesn't make sense. because when you see the way isil has been operating in syria and iraq, it was a different mindset and mechanism. >> that is true, the islamic state really is indigenous to iraq, so to speak, and to a lesser extent in syria, where it achieved marginal success in 2013-2014, establishing control of administration of land. they never really achieved -- they have never really been able to achieve that level of success

they had in iraq and syria in any of the distant provinces, libya only briefly for time in 2015 or 2016. but in all these other places like mozambique, the congo, west africa, it is not the same level of success. but i would stress the ideological angle that it clearly does exist. hashem: joseph, with three big energy companies operating there, exxon mobil and t total, do you see the potential for greater intervention from now onwards? >> i think so. but i think it is the isis or isil link that becomes important, because if you believe the united states, if you believe there is an isil

link, that will encourage countries to send troops. if you treat this as simply a local insurgency then who cares? it is just a local civil war. so that is part of it. the other thing is that exxon mobil has already said it is not interested. gas is a failing resource everywhere in the world, and -- and it has a small project which will start next year. total was going to produce some gas probably in five years. i think the attacks raise questions about whether anymore of this project will go ahead at all. so i think what is on the table is perhaps that is not going to happen. i think total will want for an military on the ground to protect them. but whether that will happen and whether mozambique will accept that, i don't know.

hashem: whatever happens next will be an externally delicate task for the international community because if they are to deploy troops, they might be seen as foreigners operating in a different territory. if you are to bring about other formulas, it might backfire the same way it backfired in places like the sahel region, with the massive weaponry that was put in place, yet armed groups are still operating there. >> yes, when we see terrorist organizations operating somewhere, we had seen a decrease in the sahel, for instance. that indicates there is coordination between some groups in the sahel and groups in mozambique. mozambique was very good in ending war and violent

conflicts. the problem was actually to sustain peace. this time the indication for it will be exactly in relation to the grievances at the micro level with locals. it will be very interesting to observe what is going on in this hell and what is going on -- in the sahel and what is going on it was a big -- what is going on in wasn't big. hashem: the main political party is widely seen as corrupt and disconnected. even with all the force it can bring about, it will not make a difference to the local people who see themselves abandoned by their own government. >> i agree with that. so as long as the local grievances are there, it will help to fuel the insurgency and

breed a recruitment ground for it. irregardless of the ideology, which as i said before, should not be downplayed. but as long as you have this issue of corruption and the fact that cabo delgado is such a marginalized province, in the context of mozambique, it will help to provide fuel for the insurgencies to continue in the future even if you have for large-scale intervention to help the mozambique military forces. hashem: ok. joseph, this is what will happen in the near future, total, exxon mobil and others are saying they will only operate if cabo delgado becomes a green zone with a corridor which is in the buffer zone, that there is sophisticated weaponry to prevent further attacks

by the group. if that does not happen, they will pull out. if they pull out, the billions of dollars oered to the government will not be there, which will bring the country to a disaster. >> it will not bring the country to disaster because the whole point of the insurgency is none of the benefit of the gas was going to the ordinary people anyway. the other point is that the benefits promised were based on producing literally 100 million tons a year of liquefied natural gas. the most we are likely to get at the moment is 16 million tons a year. so there has been a huge reduction. it is not going to be great amounts of money and that will be siphoned of by the elite. so mozambique is already not going to benefit very much from the gas. and that will not solve the war. exxon mobil is not worrying about security at the moment,

they are worrying about global markets. they have said that in their gas projects, mozambique is very low in the queue. we only have total left and, so far total is only committed to one piece, so you are not going to get a gas bonanza. it will not happen. hashem: right, noufal, could africa become the new frontier for groups like al qaeda and isil after losing their ground in yemen and syria and iraq, and potentially using energy as their next platform to further expand their political influence? >> very good question. i just want to add that gas is not the only resource. there are still natural resources up for grabs if they are not secured. secondly, what is going on in africa shows that for every country, there should be organic solutions to it.

from the security perspective, it could be a reaction, but every country needs to find organic solutions to their own problems, and i think the mozambique one is where we should start from. hashem: aymenn, do you see the african union stepping in and trying to clean up the mess in the continent? certainly it has to do with huge problems in different parts of the continent right, we have seen the same problems in somalia and also in the sahel. attempts to coordinate more interventions to try to help local governments maintain security. but i don't really see significant net gains in the long-term, and i think there is a risk of overreach in the same way that is happening in the mozambique. i would actually add, i don't see africa are necessarily as a

new center of jihad is -- jihadism. islamic state is still very much in iraq,. , yemen, those areas, and also throughout the sahel region. hashem: joseph, with focus on highs will and what is happening in mozambique, we need to ask a question about the political establishment in power in mozambique for almost 60 years. don't you think the top priority should be now genuine political reforms for the country to be immune from such problems in the northern parts? >> i would support that entirely. the question is, how do you do it? the international community only wants to invest in mozambique to make profit from the gas.

all the international community has dropped governance from their list of priority, they want investment. so there is no pressure on the mozambique elite to change. they figure they can tap it out and keep with the resources and they don't see a reason to change either. hashem: yes, because when you go to the african union summit they are talking about the need to combat extremism and poverty and tackle issues of the environment and cycles of drought. however, when it comes to tackling the persistent issue of corruption, and mismanagement of public funds, that is where they have been lagging far behind. joseph hanlon, aymenn jawad al-tamimi , and noufal abboud, thank you so much. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @aj.

for me and the entire team, goodbye for now. ♪

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