♪ dareen: millions of iranians again go to the polls, this time to choose a new president. that is as iran faces crises at home and abroad. but in a country run by a

powerful supreme leader, can a new president make a difference? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i am dareen abughaida. iranians have voted in an election to decide the fate of four candidates competing to succeed president rouhani. nearly 60 million voters are eligible, but there are concerns of a low turnout in a race widely expected to be won by the former judge, ebrahim raisi. if he wins, it would put hard-liners in control, as a -- as the government tries to salvage the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement. the votes, also seen as a referendum othe current leadership's handling of iran's economic crisis, brought on by crippling u.s. sanctions and worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.

we have reports from tehran. reporter: a test of support for iran's political system. the first person to vote, the highest authority, supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei. shortly after, almost 67,000 polling stations opened across the country, with nearly 60 million people eligible to vote. but it is clear, this time around, the presidential elections are different. >> compared to previous elections, where the results were very much unknown, and the people elected candidates such as even rouhani, all underdogs during those elections. in the current election, i think many people, as well as many analysts already predicted ebrahim raisi is going to win the election. reporter: the 60-year-old conservative candidate, ebrahim raisi is the head of iran's judiciary. he has been under eu sanctions since 2011 and u.s. sanctions

since 2019 for alleged human rights violations. here, none of these things seem to matter to these voters. the only issue for them is the economy. >> i'm voting for raisi to improve the conditions in our country. our problems are many, but mainly that our youth do not have jobs, and inflation is very high. i think he can do something for us. reporter: his only main rival has been this man, abdolnaser hemmati, the only moderate left in the race. the former head of iran's central bank has been using his background in finance to try and convince voters he's the right man for the job. >> i have come to defend the very last piece of democracy left that remains. i am voting for hemmati. the most important issue right now is our economy. i hope he can fix it, so we can retain our democracy. reporter: the unemployment rate

is at an all-time high in iran, and inflation at more than 40%. in vienna, members of president hassan rouhani's team are in talks with the united states and other members of the un security council, to get the u.s. back into the nuclear deal, known as the joint conference of plan of action, or jcpoa. -- comprehensive plan of action, or jcpoa. and they are hoping a positive outcome will deliver the results that people want. voter turnout is a major issue for officials here, who hope they can rally the electorate. but compared to when hassan rouhani was elected eight years ago, the next president may prove not so popular when he takes office in august. al jazeera, tehran. dareen: we will bring in our panel shortly, but first, let's take a look at who controls power within iran's political system pivot so candidates are -- within iran's political system. so candidates are approved by the guardian council, a 12 member body of conservative clerics and jurists that report to the head of state, ayatollah ali khamenei. the supreme leader is appointed for life by an elected body, known as the assembly of

experts. the head of government can serve up to two four-year terms. the current president, hassan rouhani, beat current candidate ebrahim raisi four years ago. they are considered hard-line conservative candidates. the former central bank governor, hemmati, is seen as a reformist. the irgc is a powerful voice in parliament, but officially it stays out of the presidential race, not supporting any candidate. ♪ let's now bring in our guests. joining us from tehran is mohammad marandi, he's the head of the north american studies graduate program at the university of tehran. joining us from berlin is ali fathollah nejad, who is an affiliated scholar with freie universitat's center for middle eastern and north african politics. and also from tehran is mostafa khoshchesm, a journalist and iran affairs analyst. thank you so much for joining us on "inside story." mohammad marandi, we don't want to speculate as to who the winner will be of this presidential race. so first, set the scene up for

us. tell us what the mood is like in tehran, as this election unfolds and voting takes place. >> well, despite the fact that the coronavirus in iran is still a problem, we have to keep in mind that thanks to u.s. sanctions, it's been very difficult for the government to keep it under control. but despite that, it seems that voting across the country is pretty brisk, the turnout seems to be above 50%, 55%, and it would seem that the front runner, mr. raisi, will easily win the election. that's what polls seem to indicate. so at the moment, that is how things stand, from my understanding. dareen: mostafa khoshchesm, how important is the selection for -- is this election for iran? >> well, it is pretty much important, because for the past

eight years, iran, under president rouhani, has been trying hard to resolve the problems, with a solutions approach, with the detente with the united states, and because of the u.s. hostility and continued defiance of the nuclear deal, rouhani's only agenda failed, and now the opposition camp, the revolutionaries, the principal lists who have been critical of -- the principalists who have been critical of rouhani's total dependence under the jcpoa, they proved to be true, and now the country's policy is being shifted towards the revolutionary camp. as my colleague said earlier, mr. raisi is expected to win this election, easily, actually, you can feel it in the streets, also all the polls show that from 50% to 55% of the turnout

that we expect today, saturday also confirms that, most of them are out for raisi. and he is going to shift the foreign policy to some extent also. he plans to reinvigorate the iranian economy through strengthening domestic capabilities, as well as expanding ties with the regional states, especially friendly countries in the region, and also a pivot to the east policy, he is going to reinvigorate ties with china, latin america, russia, and africa. therefore, we are going to witness a shift in foreign policy and economic policies in the country, and this is pretty important. dareen: we are going to look at the domestic policy as well as the foreign policies in just a moment, but on the issue of turnout, ali fathollah nejad, turnout is critical for the

selection, is it not? -- for this election, is it not? my two guests from tehran seem to suggest that turnout could be at 55%. there are other projections that say turnout could in fact be lower than previous elections, and they are putting a turnout of perhaps 44%. would you say the electorate is excited about this particular election in iran? >> well, of course not, there is widespread voter apathy that's been seen in iran during the last years'parliamentary -- during the last years' parliamentary elections. we saw the lowest voter turnout since the revolution. so the same is expected for today. and the figures that my colleagues in tehran said are quite opposite to what i have been hearing, also from inside iran. so there's eight affiliated news agencies who report voter turnout of 23%. of course, those are official figures, which have to be taken always with a grain of salt.

but there is widespread disillusionment. so low voter turnout has been very much feared by state authorities, hence their encouragement for people to take to the polls. but given the experiences that most iranians did have, with not only the rouhani administration, as the former speaker mentioned, that there's a lot of frustration with his performance, because he did not deliver on the social and political promises that he had made, but there's also frustration with other centers of power in the republic, most notably the supreme leader and the irgc. and because of this widespread disillusionment, i think this time around, there's not really a vote. also, the guardian council's decision to avoid any kind of competitive race, as we seen -- as we have seen over the last

few years, is also adding to this kind of disillusionment. but we should not forget, in the islamic republic, we don't have neither free nor fair elections. dareen: mohammad marandi, should raisi win, as the projections seem to suggest? he is backed by the supreme leader. does that mean we could expect any political appointees from his future administration to come from the most conservative sections of iranian society, like the irgc, for example? >> i think at first i have to respond to a couple of points your previous guest made. there are no official figures that have said that the turnout is going to be 23% or 24%. i think that is perhaps wishful thinking on his part. on the other hand, i think he forgets to mention that the previous parliament reelections, they took place literally 40 -- literally 48 hours after the first case of the coronavirus

was publicly announced, which caused a huge drop in the turnout, including people from my own extended family. with regards to mr. raisi, the leader has not said anything in his support. mr. raisi, for months before the election, in multiple polls, carried out institutions both close to the government and critical of the government, he was well ahead of his rivals, especially in the reformist or the moderate camp. and i think it is obvious why the current administration, dr. rouhani has not been seen as successful, he's been dealt a poor hand obviously by fate, he had to deal with trump, with the coronavirus. but in any case, his administration is not seen as popular, whereas mr. raisi, because he seems to be pursuing leftist policies, he is talking about expanding the support net for the more disenfranchised, that goes down well with people, especially in these hard times of economic difficulty and the

coronavirus. and also, he's been seen as a person who has been anticorruption-oriented. dareen: right, but correct me if i am wrong here, mohammad marandi, once again, let me rephrase the question, perhaps, should raisi win, then he would have the judiciary, the parliament, and the president all coming from a conservative political sphere. what does this mean for iran? and the space any others from -- space for any others from other political camps? >> well, first of all, i think it's obvious that mr. raisi is a very different politician from the speaker of parliament. the speaker of parliament, both of them are from the so-called conservative camp, where of course, i have to point out, that in iran, the conservative camp is more culturally conservative, but when it comes to economics, it's more left-leaning than the reformist or the so-called moderates, which are more market oriented. and we don't know who is going to be the head of the judiciary.

so it's not as if it is one monolithic entity. but the fact is, eight years of, just like in the past, the election of the president was a reaction to his liberal economic policies. then another reaction to liberal economic policies. then mr. rouhani, he was elected based upon a reaction towards those policies. now raisi, the reason why he has become so popular partially is because the reformist, moderate camp has not performed well in government, so it's not really his fault that the united states does not lift the sanctions and that the government is not doing well. dareen: mostafa khoshchesm, there are reports also that raisi is perhaps tipped to succeed the supreme leader, who of course now is 82 years old.

the president is the only second most powerful man, the supreme leader is the most powerful, as we know. is there a question regarding succession here, and is the supreme leader looking at raisi as that man and perhaps once him -- wants him in the presidential position to see how he will do? >> no, based on the constitution, the assembly of experts is responsible for picking a leader of the country. the iranian supreme leader has been telling the assembly of experts that they need to have five nominees all the time to replace him any time, if anything happens to him. he has been telling them this for the past one or two decades. so there are always options. it depends on whether the

country needs a new leader. but let me correct something, my colleague from germany said 23%, well, according to the interior ministry, the ballot papers they have used before 3:00 p.m. has been over 23%. and considering that the polls close normally seven or eight hours from now, normally in iran's elections, polls close at around midnight or 10:00, so we have several more hours. but let's remember something, which is very important. for the first two or three hours today, some 70% to 80% of the polling stations experienced problems, malfunctions, internet problems, and there were so many problems, in many polling stations, polling slowed down or stopped for the first 2-3 hours.

dareen: understood. i would rather not talk about the turnout right now, until we wait for the official figures, but your point is taken. your point is taken. i will have to bring in ali from berlin to talk about the domestic issues. ali, he wrote this recently, -- ali, you wrote this recently, that although the socioeconomic situation in the country has deteriorated dramatically during rouhani's presidency, the iranian elite continues to sideline the question of social justice. so with a new president, is the social question, as you call it, going to be high on the agenda in iran? >> at least rhetorically speaking. what professor marandi alluded to is more or less what i also have been arguing over the past few years, that we have this kind of vicious cycle between, on one hand, a reformist were -- a reformist or moderates administration, who tend to very much sideline the social question, and are not very much focus on social justice. but they are focused on the urban middle-class and some kind

of political liberalization. so their performance always paves the way for right wing populism to reemerge. or it to emerge with raisi now. raisi four years ago was also very much trying to portray himself as a prosocial justice kind of candidate. he was talking about the immense number of slum dwellers in iran, about 60 million during the televised debates with president rouhani. and this time around, he has also been saying a lot of -- actually what i would call not leftist politics, but economic populist proposals. so whether he will deliver on any of that, i would very much doubt, because on paper, he has the privilege to have access to the political economic power centers of the islam republic. so theoretically, he could actually alleviate some of the

socioeconomic grievances of the iranian people by offering fair distributional wealth. -- alleviate some of the socioeconomic grievances of the iranian people by offering fair distribution of wealth. that is quite monopolized in their own hands. but whether this is going to be the case remains to be seen. so i am not very optimistic about the ability or the willingness of a new administration, in tandem with other centers of power, to really bring about a marked amelioration of the socioeconomic problems at the country faces. -- that the country faces. after all, a considerable portion of the population lives in poverty, or around the poverty line. we can also see, as i said, a dramatic increase of poverty within the middle class. dareen: ok. let's bring in mohammad marandi. it is the economy, is it not, that is one of the most pressing issues for iranians right now? >> yes, but i think we also have to remember that iran is under

maximum pressure with sanctions. biden is continuing with trump's sanctions and is targeting women and children. and i think in germany, the country of course that gave saddam hussein chemical weapons to use against iran, in germany, if the central bank was sanctioned by the u.s., you would see an economic crisis within 24 hours in that day. i ran, under the most severe -- so iran, under the most severe economic sanctions and with the coronavirus, the u.s. through sanctions have weaponized the virus against iranians by preventing iran from importing masks, by preventing them from importing test kits, as well as vaccines, and the equipment to make their own vaccines. the united states has effectively weaponized it. but despite that, the iranian slums that i've seen outside of paris, you will not see in

tehran. so the government, the administration in iran, despite these sanctions, is facing great difficulty, but it has been able to keep the country afloat. but in my opinion, the problem with his current administration, despite the fact that it's been given a poor hand by fate, but liberal economics do not work. they are not working. they are not working in the west and they are not going to work in iran. mr. raisi, i think his objective is not populist. he wants to reform the system in a way in which it works better for the more disenfranchised, and i don't see how that could be necessarily called populist. but you have to keep in mind that the united states and europe are also suffering greatly at the hands of the global economic crisis. the only difference is we have bbc persian, deutsche welle persian, tons of tv channels -- dareen: for the sake of time, let me jump in there.

mostafa khoshchesm, on the subject of the iranian nuclear deal, these elections coincide with the latest round of talks taking place in vienna, as you know. do you expect significant change to tehran's policy when it comes to the jcpoa? >> yes, definitely. if the united states and the west arrived at a deal with iran under president rouhani, it would be respected by the next government. but if not, then they would have a tough job ahead. this doesn't mean that negotiations would not continue. as a matter of fact, i ran's top -- iran's top nuclear negotiator and deputy foreign minister praised raisi for his realistic "pragmatic and realistic foreign policy strategy." dareen: he hasn't elaborated much on his foreign-policy strategy, though, has he? in the first two presidential debates, nor when addressing his

supporters. >> i have seen the strategy for the nuclear deal and foreign policy of the revolutionary camp. it's based on, you know, for rouhani, it was just negotiations with the u.s. and the west. for raisi and other revolutionaries, it comes in a much more complicated form. negotiation is also an instrument, but not as important as it is for president rouhani. at the same time, it would go for reinvigorating the iranian economy, establishing ties with regional states, countries outside the western block, willing to work with iran, and expand cooperation on equal footing in order to lower the impacts of the sanctions at the same time that they negotiate with the west. also, they will try to increase the leverages against the u.s. not only in the area of technology, military technology,

but also iran has a wide range of options. dareen: let me just bring in ali for a final word. appreciate that. thank you so much. ali, the final 30 seconds to you. what you think will happen with the jcpoa going forward and this new government, the western powers, as well as the u.s.? >> first of all, the presidency is not the center of power in the islamic republic. it's never been the case. it's the supreme leader and the so-called office, which is a quasi-government, plus the irgc, which has a lot of power and influence. so those are the main centers. so this is part of the voter apathy by iranians who do not believe that any kind of president, be it moderate or reformist or hard-line, can bring about real change. nothing dramatic is going to change, iran's foreign policy, regional policies under nuclear

issue are decided by the aforementioned centers of power, plus the supreme national security council, so there's not much change to be expected with the presidency in iran. and the call is going to be -- the shot is going to be called still by the supreme leader. and the irgc top commanders. dareen: right. >> and let me say a last word, there's a tendency which is like simplified to externalize problems. that u.s. crippling sections -- sanctions have had a dramatic effect on the iranian population, there's no doubt about that. but when it comes to violence, and other problems and shortcomings, i would appreciate some comments from them, which are critical, of the domestic situation. dareen: i'm afraid we have to leave it there. they get so much to my guests, -- thank you so much to my guests, mohammad marandi, ali fathollah nejad, and mostafa khoshchesm, thanks for joining us. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. for further discussion, you can go to our facebook page, that's

facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter, our handle is @ajinsidestory. from myself and the whole team here in doha, thanks for watching. bye, bye for now. ♪

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