updating your top stories, counting is a well underway in egypt -- in ethiopia's election. abiy ahmed is expected to hold onto power. ballot shortages left hundreds of thousands of people without a chance to vote. mohammed jamjoom reports from a polling station. >> there are cues in several

cities across the country -- queues in several cities across the country. these are crucial elections. they are seen as the first step to democratizing the country and they want the entire world to see it as just that, a work in progress. host: armenians are celebrating a victory in sunday's snap parliamentary election. after a divisive campaign, the winner has called for national reconciliation. almost 20 palestinians have been injured after attacks by israeli settlers, who through rocks and -- threw rocks and chairs. mexico and argentina have recalled their ambassadors from nicaragua. there is an increasing crackdown on the opposition there.

more than a dozen opposition figures have been arrested this month. president ortega is expected to seek a fourth term in elections in november. in colombia, fighting between antigovernment protesters and police of the capital. demonstrators confronted riot police in bogota. there have been daily demonstrations against rising poverty, inequality, and police brutality. you are up to date with all the top stories so far. we will have more news for you in 30 minutes. between now and then, it's "inside story." ♪ >> it is the first multiparty

election in ethiopia in more than 16 years. prime minister abiy ahmed is facing the electric for the first time since taking office. will democracy work even as some regions are left out of the vote? this is "inside story." ♪ mohammed: hello, and welcome to the program. prime minister abiy ahmed rose to power, and the nation's first election in 16 years was held on monday after being delayed twice because of the pandemic. the vote is his first test at the ballot since his appointment. some opposition groups have boycotted the vote in protest against jailing other leaders a

, and others are not taking part for logistical or security reasons. thousands are facing famine like conditions. will abiy ahmed survive his first test at the ballot box? we put that to our guests. first, this report. >> the long lines outside almost every polling station, people have been lining up hours before voting began. one for the assembly, one for the house of representatives, and a third for members of the house of federation, which is the upper house of ethiopia's bicameral parliament. these elections have had logistical issues in the past. the military does electoral

commissions. but with the military now engaged in the war in tigray, they are not available, which is one of the reasons they asked for a delay. it was the second time the elections were postponed. last year they were put off because of covid-19. there are also legitimacy issues surrounding the selection -- this election. will it have the desired effect of a democratic ethiopia? the jury is still out on that. there are a number of issues, one of them being the participation in some parts of the country. opponents have been put in prison and killed. the conflict is casting a long shadow. when he came into power, the

prime minister was a democrat. he was a leader who swore he would usher in a new era of democracy in ethiopia. and now with the first election, there are all of these issues, including observers from the european union canceling at the last minute. many people feel the legitimacy issues will linger postelection. al jazeera, ethiopia. mohammed: so, let's have a look at what is at stake in this election. the northern region of tigay remains -- tigray remains in conflict. at least 300 50,000 people face famine. thousands have been displaced. there are allegations of rights abuses.

the u.n. imposed sanctions in response to the crisis. ethnic divisions have been growing, particularly between ethiopia's two largest ethnic groups, and ethiopia is in a dispute with sudan and egypt over its hydroelectric dam. let's bring in r guests. adem abebe's program officer at the international institute for democracy. a warm welcome to you all. samuel, let me start with you. how have people in ethiopia viewed this election? do they actually see this as the beginning of a real transition to democracy? samuel: i woke up just after 5:00 to get to the polls. the line was supposed to start at 6:00. my polling station -- i can't

vote because i don't have ethiopianitizenship, but the line was long. people were excited. it's not going to be the most perfect election, but ethiopia has never known an election that is perfect. people want to express ideas. they wan to highlight issues they care about. i saw excitement among the many people i met today and throughout the day. mohammed: adem, you wrote a piece recently that many saw elections as a harbinger of success of the transition. do you feel the same? adem: for a lot of people, there is still hope that elections will usher in better political dispensation. at the same time, they were not as they were hoped to be, primarily for two reasons. one, the unfolding tragedy in

tigray, which will not be participating in the elections. and he parties are not participating. -- key parties are not participating. that means the election will not be a genuine reflection of the political divides in the region. overall in the country, there is a sense of euphoria that these are important elections and there is better political dispensation in the country. mohammed: william, how big of a test is this for abiy ahmed? he has never really face the electorate before. how much pressure is on him? nagorno-karabakh -- william: for the reasons stated by adam, there is not that much pressure on him.

the prime minister was expected to face major electoral tests in his own region. the major opposition party has boycotted the election. the prime minister's prosperity party will likely win by default. there are outstanding questions. it will be interesting to see what share of the votes and the seats the prosperity party wins in order to gauge its popularity. it will be interesting to see the outcome of the election results, whether a number of opposition parties are still challenging the ruling party. but overall, this election is a real test of the prime minister and his agenda. -- as a real test of the prime minister is not as it should be because of the lack of participation in areas where he

faces the most challenge. mohammed: i want to pick up a point. he mentioned the conflict going on in tigray. how much of a shadow is that casting on the election? adem: i am not trying to discount what is happening in tigray. it is really sad. but the fact is it is not just in tigray, it is all across the country. there are many parts of the country we can't even access because of security issues. the government cannot even provide basic security for ethiopian citizens. so, tigray is overshadowing. that's a fact. many people are being impacted. what we have seen, we can't even call them allegations anymore, they are facts. the ethiopian human rights

commission, the u.n. have endorsed them. what is happening in tigray is something that needs our attention, not just the epo theon -- not just the ethiopian governments. there needs to be a real conversation about citizenship. i think this election needs to move forward. there are some questions about how legitimate it will be, b ethiopians need to move forward so that we do not become what we have seen in other countries. mohammed: elections are not being held in around 1/5 of the country's 547 constituencies. that includes all of tigray and 64 other regions across the country. what is the reason they either

will not be held or will be delayed? adem: one is security. in other places, it is principally logistics and allegations of electoral mishaps , particularly in somalia, the fourth largest region in ethiopia. it is a combination of security, logistical challenge, and electoral mishaps. it is important to know that except for tigray, elections and the remaining parts are planned for september. if everything goes well, that will be before the next parliament is supposed to start. the ladies -- the delays are unfortunate but do not necessarily undermine the legitimacy of the elections. but the fact that tigray will be out of the election and we don't

know how long, there has to be a way to ensure that their interests will be represented. there has to be a mechanism for that to happen. mohammed: william, why was the decision made to go ahead with elections when there are so many areas of the country where polls have been delayed for various reasons? is this more about the fact that it would look like a failure after the elections prior to this day or is this more about the prime minister attempting to consolidate power? william: it's a combination of a number of things. the ruling was that there would be elections nine-12 months after the pandemic was considered to be under control. there was a window to hold elections. there are opposition elements who have been excluded,

including in aramaic, the aramaean army has grown in popularity and capabilities, it seems, since the opposition party boycotted the election. now they are essentially trying to disrupt this process that they say is illegitimate and conducted by illegitimate authorities. so, to cancel the election on the basis of that threat would be a submission to that kind of activity, so it really does make sense to go ahead from the federal authorities perspective. of course, the ruling party sees a chance to win a mandate, a formal democratic mandate, even if it lacks legitimacy. those are the core reasons for pushing ahead. i want to return to something samuel said. he was talking about the need to feel -- he'll ethnic divides. when we talk about -- heal

ethnic divides. when we talk about oppositions, they are promoting an f no nationalist agenda, and they are being excluded from this election, so rather than this election bringing any sort of healing or answers to these divisions, instead, it could quite possibly exacerbate them because the parties that are participating in the election generally are the opponents of those more ethnic nationalist forces. so that is the overarching concern that the crisis group and others have. mohammed: samuel, let me ask you about what william was just mentioning? is there a reason to worry that destabile ethiopia?l further samuel: sure. there might as well be, but the reality is this election was delayed so many times, twice at

this is going to be a partial election unless the government moves beyond this election. we just have to move on. there are so many needs across the country. there are many areas across the country where we have become citizens forced to reside in or among our ethnic groups. i highlight what william said. i know there are issues with the selection. it is not the most per fee -- with this election. it is not the most perfect election. the prime minister should have included some opposition groups. now they aresking for it to be delayed once again. the reality is, ethiopians really want security. they need their basic needs to be met. for this election to somehow

produce results, needs to be held. mohammed: there are some who say if tensions and conflicts around the country, if that is already caused a rollback of reforms, that those rollbacks would continue. what would you say? adem: there is always that chance. my sense is that once the elections are over and, as we expect, the ruling party secures victory, they might feel more secure. their calculations might change. they might be ready to make concessions with the opposition. and perhaps with the international challenges the country is facing. it's very difficult for the government to make decisions, particularly on some of the

popular measures. i think there is a chance that electoral outcomes may provide the government with some security, with some confidence, and also relieve it of electoral calculations. as you say, the parties out of this process, unfortunately, the elections will not solve some of these issues. there is hope that after the elections -- and it is certainly my hope that after the elections the government will feel more secure to engage with these forces which would require dialogue, reconciliation, and overall mutual legitimacy between the ruling party and the opposition.

mohammed: we have seen outside actors continue to try to push abiy ahmed into some kind of conciliatory position, to try to start a dialogue to de-escalate tensions in the country and we have seen abiy ahmed continue to dig in his heels and rebuff those overtures. do you think there is reason to be optimistic right now that if the election goes the way many pele think it will and if abiy ahmed continues to be prime minister and locks his hold on power, will there be a level of comfort to be able to be more conciliatory? are there any chances that there will be an effort made to deal with crises around the country? william: i think there are grounds to be optimistic, but that does not mean i am dismissing the views or the suggestion along the lines of ad

em's. it is sensible and worthwhile to wait and see what the prime minister's reaction is in the event of securing a comfortable majority here. is there going to be some recognition that the war in tigray is essentially unwinnable and will continually lead to human suffering with no prospect of anything sustainable? without amnesty or some effort at political reconciliation, are the political problems going to get worse, which means more violent? i'm not optimistic about it, and those concerns are based around a number of things. recently, we have seen the ruling party classified as a terrorist organization. an armed insurgents is fighting for their return.

it looks like we will see more conflict there. more generally, this is a process of the authorities and those allied with them describing who are legitimate actors and who are not. when you have an election, it will enhance those divisions. those who participate will continue -- will consider it legitimate. those who engage in armed activity will be classed as illegitimate. but is there possibility for reconciliation and a change in direction? i am not optimistic about that occurring. mohammed: abiy ahmed's standing outside ethiopia has been greatly diminished since the war began. what about inside ethiopia? adem: adem: -- samuel: he has been prime minister for three years. he has a record. when you have a record past the

political honeymoon, you become a wedge issue. there are those who support him blindly sometimes. and there are those that really despise what is happening across the country. conflict has taken over all across the country. there are issues of unemployment . there used to be a high interest in foreign investment. some are packing up and going back. there are ny issues. if i may, today i woke up at 5:00 and i was looking at long lines of people. it reminded me of 1993, 1984. i just hope ethiopia will have a true democracy where people can have confidence in the system. so we can see that kind of hope in ethiopia.

i'm going to be helpful and i hope this election will produce results, for something for ethiopia to move forward. when we can't secure the country, that really diminishes our citizenship. mohammed: how much of a challenge to issues like the border dispute with sudan and others pose for abiy ahmed and the government? adem: i think the contestation -- the border dispute with sudan is quite new. it was always lurking in the background, but it has escalated significantly since the war started. my sense is that at the moment, any negotiation was always connected to the electoral calculations of the ruling party. so even if they believe

reconciliation is important, they will be hesitant because they do not want to disappoint their supporters. it's an extremely emotional issue in ethiopia, same with the border dispute. and the disposal -- and other disputes. these are sensitive issues for any ruling party. my sense and my hope is that the elections will be over soon and that can give them some breathing space to make gestures, important concessions and gestures. very popular issues, and i hope it can be beneficial for the country. mohammed: if prime minister abiy ahmed -- prime minister abe is

increasingly alienated from the international community, is that -- how much is that going to affect what goes on in ethiopia? william: the big question is how much financing, international financing ethiopia will receive in the months and years to come. the tide is turning so fast against this government because of the horrors of the war in tigray that there is considerable momentum tilting up in both the u.s. and europe for continued action unless the government changes worse and, as i described, unfortunately, although i am hope will show hopeful -- although i am hope, i cannot be optimistic. mohammed: we have run out of time so we are going to have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to all of our guest, and thank you for

watching. you can watch this program at any time on our website. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. on behalf of the whole team here, goodbye for now. ♪ ■■■■■■■■■÷=÷=÷tñññvvvvvrrzozozoo

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