♪ >> this is al jazeera. 120 six people have been confirmed dead and more 1000 are still missing and the floods that ravaged western europe. mudslides devastated entire communities, washing away houses and destroying businesses. south africa's president says the week of violence and looting in which 200 people were killed were coordinated and planned. security forces identified individuals. >> it is clear now the

events of the past week were nothing less than a deliberate, coordinated, and well-planned planned attack on our democracy. the constitutional order of our country is under threat. the current instability and i'm going incitement to violence constitutes a direct contravention of the constitution of our country and the rule of law. >> the king has called demonstrators satanic and accused them of taking the country backwards. his remarks came as protesters continued together in the second largest city. dozens of people have been killed and injured since june. swaziland is the last absolute monarchy in africa. security forces and belarus have rated another 25 homes and offices of activists and independent journalists.

it's the third day in a row of search -- of searches. afghan forces have launched an offensive to retake a key border crossing with pakistan. the town fell to the taliban on wednesday. a major supply route into the province in pakistan. doctors have been treating fighters wounded in the latest fighting. the tele-been made significant gains in recent weeks as foreign drops withdrew -- foreign troops withdraw from the country. there were close to 52,000 new infections on friday, coming days before the government relies this -- the government relaxes restrictions. i will have more news for you after "inside story." do stay with us. ♪

mohammed: back to square one. lebanon's prime minister designate resigns again after failing to form a new government. who's to blame for this latest setback, and is there political will to pull lebanon out of this crisis? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. lebanon is sinking deeper into political and economic turmoil. prime minister designate hariri has stepped down again after the latest failure to form a new

government. he and president michel aoun are blaming each other. many lebanese vented their anger on the streets of beirut. the country hasn't had a government in nine months. its currency has lost nearly all its value, pushing many into poverty. food, medicine, and fuel are in short supply. france has called another international aid conference for lebanon on august 4, a year after the beirut port explosion destroyed much of the capital. we'll bring in our guests in a moment. first, this report from zainab. reporter: a long political struggle has just become more difficult to resolve. lebanon's prime minister designate, saad hariri, who has been locked in a nine-month power struggle with president michel aoun, has failed to form his fourth government. >> i met with the president, and he demanded what i deem as substantial change to the formation of the government. i suggested to the president, if he needed more time to consider my proposal, but he saw no

prospect for agreement. for these reasons, i stepped down. reporter: the political paralysis is expected to accelerate the country's economic collapse. lights are out most of the day, the cash-strapped state barely has money to buy fuel, and there is a shortage of medicine, making life a daily struggle, as more lebanese are pushed into poverty. the local currency, which already lost 95% of its value in recent months, has depreciated further in the hours following hariri's announcement. lebanon needs a government to put in place an economic recovery plan, but that government has to be able and willing to carry out reforms in state institutions. that's the condition set by the international community, which is refusing to issue blank checks after decades of corruption. but there's also the regional dynamic. lebanon is entangled in the power struggle between mainly

shia iran and saudi arabia, which used to be an influential player here, and the financial supporter to the mainly sunday -- suni muslim pro-western camp. it, too, has stepped aside. >> saudi arabia is deeply concerned about the growing power and role of hezbollah. in a lebanese political arrangement, it would look forward for any kind of solution that will curtail hezbollah's role in the country. reporter: the anger among lebanon sunnis spilled onto the streets. they have long complained their power as a community is being taken away, and any attempt to name a new prime minister without the support of the sunni leadership headed by hariri won't solve the crisis. the previous prime minister was chosen by the president and his muslim shia allies. >> they believe that since the arrival of general aoun to the presidency, he is trying to confiscate or to restore part of the lost christian authorities.

the shia are actually -- they have no problem whatever. the situation is for their benefit, and they know that any changes in this political system, it's going to be for their benefit and for the sunni benefit, because from 50 50 we're gonna move to one third part. reporter: today, the state is deadlocked. the power sharing agreement between religious communities, which ended lebanon's civil war in 1990, no longer seems to be working. al jazeera, beirut. ♪ mohammed: all right, let's bring in our guests. in beirut, rana khoury, a political activist and campaigner for gender equality. in istanbul bachar el-halabi, -- in istanbul, bachar el-halabi, middle east and north africa senior geopolitical analyst for clipperdata. and also in beirut, christophe abi-nassif, director of the lebanon program at the middle east institute. a warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining "inside story" today. rana, i want to start by talking

about the human toll of this political deadlock. the lira has lost 90% of its value. more than half of the population has slipped into poverty. there are fuel shortages and medicine shortages. how much are people in lebanon struggling right now? >> first, hello. i don't know if you're hearing me correctly, because part of the total collapse of lebanon is also electricity, and the internet. now, it's definitely a very severe humanitarian crisis, when it comes to access to basic needs, food, medication, the health care system is collapsing day after day. however, this is not a typical humanitarian crisis, so it's not something that was -- not that we couldn't prevent this. it's a systematic murder of the lebanese people and people living in in lebanon. -- and people living in lebanon. everything that you're seeing here has the effect of a violent war or an embargo without actually having a violent war on

embargo. it's actually the acts and the years of the ruling, of this political class, that led to -- that led to here. here we are in a very, very difficult situation. i think the label of that people used to put on the lebanese people of resilience has totally vanished. we are in a very, very severe situation, when it comes to basic access. access to basic needs. and i think what's the most dangerous now, if you want to talk purely from humanitarian level is a total collapse or the day by day collapse of the health care system, which means people don't have access to medication but also don't have access to health care and hospitals. while the ruling mafia is watching, i don't call it a humanitarian crisis. i would like to call it a systematic murder of the lebanese people, because all of this could've been prevented if we weren't ruled by the people who were ruling us today. mohammed: christophe, did his

resignation come as a complete surprise? was there any expectation there might be some last-minute political deal, or was nobody expecting that? >> i highly doubt that a lot of people were actually surprised by this resignation yesterday. at the end of the day, it's just a pure continuation of the episodes that we've been seeing over the past month, really decade or two, of incapacity and unwillingness on behalf of the political establishment. and he is part of that establishment to, really be able to push forward the reforms and revert at some point from the collapse. nine months have elapsed. 266 days to be exact. the status quo has been maintained politically. which is a total impasse. but we've seen the depreciation of the currency, the reserves at

the central bank that are essential for any recovery effort being depleted without any purposeful depletion. it's not being used for any particular sake. therefore it's not a surprise a political stalemate continues. if there's one thing people in lebanon and observers and fellow countries outside of the country, if there's one thing they haven't realized by now is that hopefully they do, that this establishment's days are pretty much over and they are absolutely incapable of handling, managing, and one day resolving the crisis. mohammed: political impasse continues in lebanon. i'm curious for your -- from your vantage point, how much has his resignation complicated this already intractable political crisis? >> first of all, it definitely complicated the situation even more in the country, because there was some sort of a consensus over hariri leading

the government formation process, whether on the international level or locally. on the regional level, we know that there's a veto, some so-called veto by saudi arabia on hariri, particularly which complicated his drive in order to form a negotiation with the different lebanese stakeholders in terms of funding a government -- forming a government. this is something hariri mentioned last night with an interview in a local tv station. he said that he will not be naming any candidate to replace him as prime minister designate and he might not even give the vote of confidence to this minister if he manages to form a government. this means that any new government that might be formed

that probably the other political stakeholders in the country agree on will lack the confidence of one of the major constituencies in the country, which makes it hopping on one foot instead of two or three. in terms of applying for much-needed reforms come on oprah minister will dare touch the very explosive files on the country in terms of free reforms without having the full support of all the different factions in the country. this is why hariri yesterday raised the stakes by announcing that in addition to the fact that he hinted at the role of hezbollah basically in not pressuring enough the current sitting president in terms of -- to drive actually the government formation process which would also kind of exasperate tension between the different constituencies in the country. mohammed: rana, with this

delicate, sectarian power-sharing system in place in lebanon, is there any hope that a technocratic and reform minded government can ever really become a reality in the country? >> i think it's almost two years after the revolution, the voices that were actually questioning whether an alternative could work, i think what we are sure about is that the current status of total failure, and the people currently ruling us are a total failure and not only because they are incompetent, but also because they are criminals. the 4th of august is the biggest proof of that. i -- now, would you tell me the system as a functional system and if we get clean people and people that are not criminals it will work? i don't think we will be in the situation, but i don't think that it would work. i think there is an essential problem in the system today. in our political system, in this power-sharing system. if we want to have a brighter

look on lebanon, we would know that only a secular democratic state would work, especially in today's world, especially with the generation of the revolution and especially after the systematic failure of the system. this doesn't mean that we don't need an emergency plan today. and that we need people to handle what we have been left with. what these people have actually destroyed in this country. and even any sound mind today that remembers beirut or thinks of lebanon would never have imagined they would lead us down this route today. so yes we need an emergency plan. but there is a profound routing problem within the system we live in. and i don't think it is possible to have a long-term surviving lebanon with the current system. it is also delusional to think that the problem is a community problem and that people hate each other because of their sex. we need to make it clear that it is a regime problem and it is a

ruling mafia that has the arms, the militias, the corruption, the money that led people to where they are today. it's kind of when you say, oh, but between israel and palestine it's a religious issue. it's not. it's a colony occupying people. the same thing in lebanon. the system is a sectarian system that is completely dysfunctional but the the basic problem are these criminals that led the country to where it is today. yes, with the change of system but also with an emergency plan because today is that also makes problem, but also a big political problem. it's impossible the same day of the resignation that the lira jumps from 19,000 to 24,000. this means that of course we have an economic problem but it is deeply -- and the root of it is a political problem. we are not any real estate crisis, we are in a regime crisis. mohammed: christophe, how

difficult is it going to be to find somebody to fill the post vacated by hariri? will he back a replacement? >> when it comes to skills and qualifications definitely not -- it is terribly complicated. we do not find a replacement. what that ends up doing is just creating and cementing this political vacuum that we are now living in. president aoun mentioned he will call on consultations with parliament. we don't know if that will happen anytime soon. if that does end up happening, we will see a reactivation of pretty much the defunct diab caretaker government we have today. that is option one. until total explosion or we end up going towards elections. but elections are nine months away on a lot of things can

happen then. option two is playing the democracy part which is becoming tougher to implement. which is where hariri ends up under international pressure by discussing with allies domestically to try to potentially float a name that could be accepted by the fbm, by hezbollah, and the coalition. then what we'll end producing really sadly is just another government that has absolutely no capacity to deal with the crisis and hopefully that's one of the lessons learned from the french initiative, that any establishment-linked government is going to be totally incapacitated and unable to do anything on the ground. the only way forward is to actually be able to manage this transitional government with exceptional judge slade of powers, which has been floated months. more than two years ago probably buy a lot of the alternative political parties that will effectively transition us toward a secular civil state and the able to adequately unfairly

managed and allocate the systemic things in the crisis. what hasn't been tried before simply -- what has been tried before is simply no longer working. the good things were never implemented and what we are living now is just the remnants of a failed system that needs to be renounced. mohammed: the european union has said it wants to agree by the end of july on a legal framework for a package of sanctions targeting lebanese leaders. do you think the eu will actually do that, and if they do, what would those sanctions look like? >> i think the eu is definitely heading in that direction after almost a year of throwing a lifeline for the lebanese sectarian ruling elite, which symbolized the french initiative by president emmanuel macron. who arrived in beirut right after the august 4

explosion that dropped the heart of the city. the french were heavily involved in the process of trying to form a government in lebanon and they have experience on how difficult and complex that process is and who are the disruptive factors in forming a government that can actually start implementing certain reforms to try and save what is left of the country. and the french have basically worked relentlessly over the past few months in trying to achieve a consensus with the european union in order to officially announce their intention of trying to implement sanctions on lebanese politicians. what will those sanctions be? i think they are mostly going to target tier one or tier two politicians as a first step. maybe their advisors. their bank accounts. trying to strip them of their visas.

we know many of the members of the sectarian ruling elite in lebanon kind of have other passports so they might be banned from travel and we know that many of the lebanese politicians actually withdrew their money over the past two years or even more or they transferred their money abroad, and they are relying on those bank accounts outside in order to reestablish themselves in the coming phase in lebanon. especially when election times come. so this is something that might complicate their plans the fans of the lebanese, but am i to hopeful that this will drive the country and the different lebanese constituents in order to achieve some sort of an agreement over a new government? i'm not that hopeful. because previously, when the u.s. state department targeted gibran basil, who was the son of -- the son-in-law of the current sitting president, the head of the largest elementary block in the parliament, nothing happened.

he did not back down. the actually leveraged that in order to tighten his relationship with hezbollah and in order to demand more and more from hezbollah, which kind of gave him the cushion and in the previous negotiations at were happening with prime minister designates, in order to refuse or turn down any of the propositions by hariri or even turn down the international pressure by the egyptians were the french or the americans. so this is definitely something that should happen. it is something that also reflects on the europeans in general and their talk about principles and upholding these principles, but will it solve the problem in lebanon? i'm really skeptical. and we will see by the end of this month. mohammed: rana, do you think from your vantage point that eu sanctions trading lebanese leaders would be in any way effective in putting enough

pressure on them to release or train between act reforms and potentially start to turn the situation around? >> i don't think this is sufficient, especially where we've had it now. the french initiative and even other foreign powers as well -- their initiative to try to solve the problem was always being dealt with in the same circle of the ruling class. our back is against the will. i think extreme measures should also be taken. yes, these are people who stole our money and put their money outside. those are people who kept the nitrate in the port. they should be in jail. for me these are reasonable and legal measures to take a what i don't think unfortunately they are sufficient. let's take the u.s. sanctions on hezbollah. obviously the major ruling party in lebanon. they were mostly targeted on the

banking sector. there were no actual sanctions that could actually limit the power and take over even more parts of -- more power shares in the country. for me they might be necessary. they are legal today if you understand that in the eu or outside the eu, that some people have stolen money, laundering money, something that's totally illegal. obviously you have to take it by the rule of law and stop it. it's not a big favor. it's actually applying the law and international law. but i don't think today it's sufficient. i think we have to have a total breakup with the current regime and stop pushing for a solution within the the actual cast if you want or the actual system that we have, because as we've seen, it's not working. mohammed: big picture here for a moment, christophe, does the

political will from your vantage point exist right now to pull lebanon out of this current crisis? >> it does not would and i think at this stage it's no longer a matter of political will. it's a matter of things being enforced and things -- the balance of power changing and the cost benefit analysis that political parties in the main political players in lebanon are thinking through and reconsidering and reassessing in light of regional dynamics. some rapprochement, the potential deal or lack thereof between the u.s. and iran. people are still at this stage in a way lacking agency to conduct any real reform and to make any real politician decision -- political decision making. lebanon is a tiny country. what needs to be done has been clear for years now. we know where the problems are. it's a matter of having the right sticks and carrots but also the right institutional setup in place where regional powers and international powers, but more importantly people in lebanon can step up to the stage and take matters into their own hands and away, not necessarily

by violence, but by pure political organizing so that balance of power, it still to this stage on the side of establishment parties, and zip switching and then realities will then be different and that in itself, with the support of things such as potential sanctions, which are tools rather than policy, and with an entire revamping of the political system which once again is pretty much dead at this stage could impose and that's why it's not a well, it's more of an imposition, of new realities on the ground that will help us hopefully unclog these issues. mohammed: regional and international mediation has failed to bridge differences between lebanese leaders. is there any international actor at this point who can play a more effective mediating role? >> it's not an effective meeting room -- mediating role as much as pushing things forward. i think the only player, regional player that can do that is actually iran. surprisingly or not.

because the main powerhouse in lebanon at the moment is hezbollah. and hezbollah can dictate things almost entirely on the different constituencies of the country, and hezbollah is the closest ally of the president and has very good relations with all the constituencies. no one wants to fight against hezbollah in lebanon. so hezbollah holds the key if it wants to drive the situation forward. but i don't think it has intentions to do that. in the trade-off or the cost-benefit approach which christoph mentioned is still not ripe enough for it to move forward from the current regime in its form and the current balances which favors its influence over the country. mohammed: we have run out of time. we are going to have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to our guests, rana khoury, bachar el-halabi, and christophe abi-nassif. thank you, too, for watching. you can see alwats watch this program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the

conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, mohammed jamjoom, and the whole team here, thank you very much for watching. bye for now. ♪

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