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>> will the long run in venezuela come to an end? government and opposition expected to hold talks as the country reels from, crisis. what will it take to reach a deal? this is inside story. ♪ >> hello and welcome to the program. venezuela's political nightmare could soon be over. president nicolas maduro and his men rival juan guaido have agreed to hold talks in mexico to resolve differences. it wasn't long ago venezuela was considered one of latin america's most economically stable countries but the oil-producing nature -- nation

has seen eight years of session fueled by a political crisis since 2018, and attempts to overthrow the government. that is without the added competition of covid-19. stakes are high but will venezuela's leaders leave their rivalry to the side to save the country? will get to our guest soon but let's look at where venezuela got. in 2019, nicolas maduro was morning for a second term of presidency but the opposition refused to accept his win. the opposition leader juan guaido claimed to be president. he was considered by many as the legitimate president. maduro responded by cutting ties with the u.s. who he perceived as siding with guaido. the u.s. under former president

donald trump imposed crippling sanctions on venezuela and on their main lifeline oil exports. it led to food shortages, migration of up to 5 million venezuelans, thousands of whom were considered part of a skilled workforce. ♪ >> let's bring in our guest. joining us via skype from the venezuelan capital is a senior analyst at the international crisis group from new york, and from a political crisis firm, and an analyst. things were joining us on inside story. let's go to you first, previous attempts at negotiation between the government and the opposition have failed. recently in 2019. will these negotiations and

mexico differ from previous times? >> i think it is fair to say as you mentioned the previous talks have failed. when the opposition gave up on the talks, very similar talks, taking place in 2019, in september that year they declared this process facilitated by the norwegians was exhausted. there was no further point. they turned to an attempt to violently overthrow the government. it is not clear why they think, if they do, that this time around is likely to succeed. the opposition side is much weaker than it was in 2019. the two sides seem in some ways almost as far apart as they were then. there are been some minor adjustments to the position but they're are still very far apart. i think we have to be skeptical going into this first round. >> important points, we will get

into them. vanessa, to you in new york, weigh in on whether you think the talks this time around have any chance of succeeding. >> yes, well, i agree it is very challenging. i think the opposition, which was sort of official, is quite weak. they're trying to unite, they are still trying to present a united front but you still affections. the strong hand they do have to play is that the maduro regime has not been able to secure foreign assets in countries where juan guaido is recognized including the united states and most countries in europe. what maduro is trying to do is have conditions so that his local election will get international recognition so it can become -- for later

presidential elections, so he can again get access to that international money that has been held pending for elections. he wants the money, and of legitimacy to secure the money, which then goes into the regime. i want to correct you on one point. maduro did not break relations with the united states because of juan guaido. that was broken years ago. it has been years since the united states has had a properly functioning diplomatic relationship with venezuela. >> right. the point is the relationship really deteriorated between the units it's in venezuela since guaido. but paul dobson, over to you. i know you told our producer over the dust before the show that in your opinion the political crisis has already ended. what are you basing that on? >> into 2019 there was a clear

petition between two strong political groups, the government on one hand and the opposition on the other hand. this correlation has changed significantly over the last two years so now we can say there is no confrontation in the political arena, the guaido camp has been essentially removed from the political map, they lost most of their support base, they are losing the support base elsewhere as well. we look at the venezuela political map, we see a dominant government sector, a growing but still small right wing opposition sector, and the guaido camp basically in disaster and collapse. i think it is incorrect to describe the current political situation as a confrontation or crisis. that does not mean to say that

venezuela is going through a. period of growth, there's an economic crisis at the same time. but in 2019 when the last talks came about as phil mentioned. this needs to be taken into account, when there are possibilities of success, the bargaining chips in the equation are different from what they were in 2019. >> fell, -- phil, maduro has placed conditions on new talks and he is calling for lifting of the blockade and sanctions and the return of frozen and seized assets. is that a likely scenario going into these talks? >> no, it's not going to happen. the united states government has made it clear that in order for it to be a significant -- sanctions relieved, there has to be equally significant progress in terms of restoring democracy

to the country. that means that it looks very much as if we would need to go a very long way down the road in these negotiations, as i think it's going to be a very slow process. the idea as -- that as maduro wishes, sanctions would be lifted first and his government and all institutions be recognized as legitimate before anything else can happen, that is unrealistic. but it is also unrealistic for the opposition i think to demand that he bring forward presidential elections, that he reinstate and restore constitutional rule to venezuela . despite what paul says, this is an unpopular government. it is a government that knows well if it were exposed to the rigors of a fulsome mcgill -- full-scale democracy it would lose power. and not necessarily lose power

to those presently engaged in this negotiation, but maduro is unpopular, and he has been unpopular for the duration of his term and a half office so far. he's not going to sit down and talks and agreed to something that is going to lead to him losing power, especially because he is wanted internationally for allegations of drug trafficking, human rights abuses. there are two cases in the international criminal court, high-ranking officials included, so it is highly risky for him to agree to anything like that. >> paul, would you like to respond to claims that maduro is highly unpopular? >> i would agree with him in this, but we need to contextualize. there is a widespread disenchantment with political parties in venezuela which have been building over the last five

years, and they are being reflected internet and elections. turnout has been decreasing in the past six or seven years in every election. it would be fair to say venezuelan's on the streets are disenchanted with the political leader and the opposition political leaders. it's not unique to maduro, nor is it unique that he is massively unpopular. it is a growing power play in terms of leadership. >> vanessa, one of guaido's conditions was for free and fair electoral guarantees led by observers, but if you look at the opposition as a whole, besides agreeing on attending the upcoming talks, how united are they? >> as i mentioned before, they are trying to put together a united front, but as you know, we call it the cheese board, it is made of four parties, and the

negotiations was involved -- they were involved with two of the local parties and a member from each. i agree with the assessment from paul there is a growing disenchantment with the political party. from the citizens perspective, it is do they represent us? this is a challenge for the opposition. you also have internal mx in the politico parties -- dynamics in the political parties. some are saying we want a comprehensive agreement before anything happens, for be agree to anything, whereas the other three parties want a more -- approach.

what does also what norway is advocating. i agree the opposition has lost a lot of support mainly because it has taken so long to get maduro out of power and because of the infighting. however, only one side in this equation is accused of crimes against amenity and only one side has indictments and an investigation going back to at least 2008. so, you can't really compare the two sides. there is no moral equivalency. you do have social disenchantment with the political party, but the moral equivalency between the two sides is not there. it also can play in defectors and the negotiation in mexico, what is happening next week is setting up for further discussions and establishing the framework for the further discussions that will continue from september on. >> to what extent is the opposition coming to the negotiating table really weakened and as a means to

ensure its own survival, given what paul has been saying as well as vanessa? >> i think you're right but in a different way from what you are suggesting. there is of course still this phenomenon, this barrage if you like, -- mirage of the insular government just recognized by fewer governments than 2019 that it is still recognized by washington and the u.k.. that is not going to continue indefinitely. and the u.s. has told the guaido side that it is unrealistic to imagine their recognition of guaido in the interim government is going to go all in at the beginning of next year. there is kind of a perverse incentive on the part of the

guaido-lopez faction in particular. that will interfere with these talks with any kind of genuine negotiation outcome. i think they have decided to sit down with the government primarily to head off the alternative action within the mainstream opposition, led by a man who lives in a more gradual approach that vanessa was referring to. it believes in taking part in regional elections coming in november, which have been described by guaido as a sham. >> phil was talking about the acceptance of other countries of guaido at the time. why are the talks being held in mexico, which is not exactly a neutral country when it came to venezuela's opposition and guaido? the mexican president was one of

the region that did not recognize him in 2019. >> exactly. so mexico is a country where the -- where guaido has a representative there but it has not been recognized by the president of mexico, and he is very much in favor of maduro. so it is not really neutral ground. but this also parallels the negotiations that chavez helped broker that took place in cuba. there's a tendency to go to these rather leftist basis mexico is better for the opposition than cuba. to have it in this slightly leftist terrain that favors the maduro camp, it helps get them

to the table. don't forget mexico -- americans have a strong presence in mexico, it is just over the border, you have tremendous commercial ties between mexico and the united states, gas pipelines, automotive industry, etc. it is leftist enough to appeal to the maduro camp and still close enough to the united states that there can be a little bit of moderation about extreme leftism in terms of hosting these talks and it makes it convenient for washington, who will be sending some representatives to the talks. >> let me ask about the united states. recently the treasury department, last month, announced it would authorize venezuela to import liquefied petroleum gas from the united states and other sources. what is the region dust reason behind this move by the biden administration? is there a shift

in relations? >> not really. i agree with phil's assessment that maduro's demand of recognize me and give me all my money is unrealistic because it is an autocracy, terrorism, it's not going to happen. there would be nobleness -- no incentive to negotiate. but the biden administration is trying to head off a humanitarian issue and is signaling its willingness. petroleum gas is what venezuelans used to cook, so you have millions of venezuelans burning wood to try and cook their meals at home. it is to show there is support for the venezuelan people, opening windows to help venezuelan people. however, since oil is not a transaction that could happen it is difficult to see how maduro would do that because you have to spend cash which is

international reserves, which are at a low and at a premium for him, to do that. it slightly puts him -- it shows that biden is cautious of the difficulties of the everyday people in venezuela while also putting maduro on the back foot. you have the opportunity to help your people, will you or will you not do it? and if you don't, you own that. it is a fairly savvy diplomatic move on the biden administration's part. hopefully it will help venezuelan people. frankly, i don't see that happening due to maduro's position. >> let's find out from paul how do you feel the venezuelan government is feeling that moved by the writer administration? >> you have to remember the biden administration inherited the sanctions for mostly donald trump and predecessors but also barack obama and the predecessor

to trump. he is not done it many sanctions and came into office. but this kind of magnanimous -- i may agree with her down the line when we start seeing more measures, but we have seen biden failed to take action on a devastating and according to the united nations illegal embargo on diesel imports, which has affected venezuelans capacity to move food among cities and feed its population. we have seen the biden administration unwilling to take any significant steps on the oil embargo in venezuela, which is cutting off 99 percent of its -- 99% of its national income. it was a positive, i think it has to be classes that, but i see it as a preamble to these talks in mexico. a slight softening of the position from washington to try

to show there is room to negotiate, to convince caracas there is potential to have other measures should steps be taken. this is where we come to the crops -- crux. we are learning if there is political maturity for both parts. if -- there is a lack of maturity, the same could be said from the government and washington. >> back on the issue of the biden administration and the u.s., what you're saying is from the trump arrow through biden area, there hasn't been much change in your opinion -- era through to biden era, there hasn't been much change? >> no change, correct. >> i agree with his analysis. biden has inherited the

sanctions, they were under obama and they got stronger under trump. part of the reason i was personally involved part of that, the turning point was the hunger protests at the goldman sachs headquarters which they helped organize. in 2017, the protests were hot, and at that time goldman sachs had hundreds of millions of dollars to maduro. in that protest but the front page of every financial media in the world. it kicked the sanctions into high gear is people realize this is a murderous -- a regime murdering its citizens. there were standing up to that. i also published yesterday and energy advisor, and publication of the dialogue my views of how

this should happen. i do agree the first thing that should be negotiated in terms of lifting of oil sanctions should be -- that needs to be tied to the release of political prisoners and start setting up elections for november. if maduro shows he wants to help the people and have democracy -- >> we are running out of time, let me bring it will for a final word. -- in phil for final word. what you want to look for specifically on the do the meeting is held? -- the day the meeting is held? >> i think it is unlikely

especially in the middle of an election campaign we are going to get much progress. but if we can see the installation of what will have to be long-term talks from the two sides, they can sit at the table and really thresh things out, perhaps after the elections can see progress. i'm not optimistic that anything much is going to come out of the 13th of august meeting. >> we will have to live there, think is so much for joining us -- thank you so much for joining us. things are watching, you can see the program any time by visiting our website al jazeera.com, for from discussion go to our facebook page, join the conversation on twitter, our handle is @ajinsidestory. thanks for watching. bye for now. ♪

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