>> this is al jazeera. the u.s. president, joe biden, is promising to make every effort to evacuate all americans and afghan allies safely. biden says the evacuations have been among the most difficult airlifts in history. gunfire has been used to push back huge crowds gathering at kabul's airport. >> make no mistake, this evacuation mission is dangerous. it involves risks to our own forces and has been conducted under difficult circumstances. i cannot promise what the

final outcome will be. but as commander in chief, i can assure you that i will mobilize every resource necessary, and as an american, i offer my gratitude to the brave men and women of the u.s. armed forces for carrying out this mission, they are incredible. as we continue to work the logistics of your accusation, -- of evacuation, we are working to ensure civilians have safe passage to the airport. >> women are particularly at risk of taliban persecution. since they took power, two prominent fema journalists have been barred from their jobs -- female journalists have been barred from their jobs. the toll from saturday's earthquake in haiti has risen to nearly 2200 people. hospitals are struggling to treat the growing number of coronavirus patients. india's approved what it says is the world's first dna vaccine

against coronavirus for emergency use. a study claims the jab has a 67% efficacy to prevent covid-19 symptoms. it will be administered to people over 12 years old. malaysia's king has appointed the new prime minister, marking the return of the long ruling uno party. he replaces the ruler who resigned monday. the coalition fell apart after criticism he mishandled the coronavirus pandemic. those are the headlines. "inside story" is next. ♪ mohammed: billions of dollars of

afghanistan's financial reserves have been frozen. and international aid has been put on hold. could this affect the taliban's ability to keep the country running, or will it mostly in -- mostly impact the afghan people? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. afghanistan is the world's seventh poorest country and mostly relies on eight. -- on aid. now, its economic prospects look even more bleak. the united states has frozen more than $9 billion of afghanistan's international reserves, held in its central bank. and the international monetary fund has suspended payment of more than $460 million for afghanistan, as part of a coronavirus relief program. more financial measures are likely to be imposed by western capitals, as they put pressure on the taliban's leaders. they promised to form an

inclusive government and ensure the nation will not become a safe haven for other armed groups. the international community says it is waiting to see how this will be a momentum on the -- how this will be implemented on the ground. many warned that without international recognition and donations, the group might not be able to govern and pay salaries. imf spokesman jerry rice said in a statement that there is currently a lack of clarity within the international committee regarding recognition of an afghan government. as a consequence, it cannot access the special drawing rights or other imf resources. let's take a closer look at how the taliban support itself. the group is estimated to have an annual income of up to $1.6 billion. the u.n. says that includes external financial support, such as donations from wealthy individuals and charitable foundations. a well documented source of income for the taliban is the trade in opium and other drugs. but with the taliban controlling other country's major trade routes, the group makes more money from taxes on legal goods such as fuel, food, and other essentials, as they transit

border crossings. the world bank estimates more than 75% of afghanistan's public spending is funded by grants. halting aid is expected to accelerate poverty in the country. nearly half of the population were already living below the poverty line last year. unemployment is close to 12%. a quarter of those who work earn less than two dollars a day. the currency is set to further depreciate, and that could push up food prices. ♪ for more on this, i'm joined by our guests. in instanbul is haroun rahimi, assistant professor of law at the american university of afghanistan. in washington, d.c. is marvin weinbaum, director of afghanistan and pakistan studies at middle east institute in washington, d.c. and in london is klisman murati, founder and ceo of pangaea wire group, a geopolitical consultancy. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks for joining us today on "inside story."

haroun, let me start with you. you tweeted that stopping the flow of funds into afghanistan will punish millions, 99% of the population that can't or won't leave. we need to care for them, too. so i would like to get your thoughts on the kind of impact that all this will have on afghan citizens. >> absolutely. i mean, afghanistan has a huge trade deficit. we finance that trade deficit mostly through foreign aid. now the foreign aid is in jeopardy. the afghanistan government right now does not have access to its foreign reserves because the situation of governance, who is actually in charge, is right now being negotiated. as a result of that, afghanistan's currency is depreciating fast. and if we don't have enough usd injected into the market soon, the prices may continue to rise. right now, there are rumors that in kabul, the prices have already increased, twofold in many instances.

there's also psychology around this, that many people may fear, as the value of the currency depreciates and people are leaving, they may want to buy more usd, and it may become a vicious cycle. i think there is any for -- is a need for confidence building. the international committee should signal that they will not risk deteriorating the afghani economy any further. all eyes are on kabul airport, and they should be, because that's a very dire situation. but more than 99% of afghans still need to stay there and make a living and continue with many of their economic activities. that leads some interventionists to stabilize an economy that is in need of stabilization retina. -- stabilization right now. mohammed: just to put this in more perspective, these assets and funds that have been frozen, this is not the same as if the u.s. had put sanctions on the taliban-led government. right? in order to place sanctions on a

taliban-led government, that would need u.s. congressional approval, correct? >> that's right. that's right. i share the concerns of the last speaker. but it is undoubtedly the case, that the united states and other powers, including the international agencies, will use this lever of financial support as perhaps the only way which they have to influence the taliban at this point. and that's why it is unlikely that they are going to open up their coffers completely, the way it very well needs, in terms of people's difficulties. i think we are going to see this as something along recognition -- along with recognition, which is going to be described as, well, let's see how they perform and then we will decide what we are going to do.

mohammed: afghanistan's economy is already fragile. it has been for a long time. it's heavily dependent on international aid. klisman, how much does this now complicate the situation for the afghanistan economy? >> that's a good question. and i think it depends on who you are in the situation. if you are a better on wall street, what's been happening in afghanistan as a primary order effect probably won't affect you too much at all. the afghan economy isn't integrated at all into the wider economic architecture. but if you are an afghani living in afghanistan, the situation is very different. so the afghan economy is really based on two fundamental factors -- its aid that comes in, support from the imf, and for those on the taliban side, the illicit funds that come through, which the taliban tax. the taliban are going to be the status quo politically in the country now. they need to find a way in order to fund expenditure, paying people's salaries, and building

trust with the people. keeping the economy moving. the last part is difficult to do. they are both equally difficult. mohammed: you talked about the need for building trust among afghanistan's people. how difficult will that be for the taliban to do, or any kind of inclusive government or transitional government that forms, whenever that may be? >> it is going to be the most difficult task ahead. and it is all interlinked. i mean, the inclusivity of the government is going to determine the legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the people. that will also be linked to the issue of national legitimacy. i think we have to keep context in mind. the taliban have been running a brutal resurgence -- brutal resurgency. they have considered many afghans who work for the government. most of the educated class who work with ngos and help with the u.s. operation of afghanistan as targets.

they target them through assassinations, complex attacks. now they tell those people, do not worry, we will target you, -- we will not target you, stay and help us govern. it will take a lot more than those words for people to stand actually contribute. just controlling the borders or maybe making statements may not be enough. you need to build trust, as you said. and i really don't know how they can do it in the short term. but putting those words into action, holding those fighters that have reportedly got into -- reportedly abused the population and went into peoples houses demanding people hand over their cars, or some reported officials would be the first place to start, to make sure there is a sense of rule of law, to ensure people's property and personal safety are not going to be affected by this. that's going to be the floor. beyond that, you have to give people a place they want to live in. a lot of people are feeling this is not a place where they are going to be living in

anymore, because it will not be enjoying freedoms, and basic human freedoms that they came to expect in major urban centers. in terms of stabilizing the economy and stopping brain drain, they have to do a lot more, they have to do it fast, because the situation is already unfolding in a very catastrophically. mohammed: marvin, i saw you nodding along to some of what haroun was saying. if you had a reaction to his remarks, secondly, if you believe what the u.s. has done will give the u.s. any leverage over the taliban going forward. >> the u.s. is in a position now where it is focused on what is entirely the evacuation of those americans and others who have assisting. the u.s. is unlikely, given the political pressures in this country, to do very much conciliatory toward the afghans,

while certainly the reports that are coming in that the taliban have been not living up to what they are saying they are willing to do, in terms of not seeking retribution and other behavior. i think that we have to perceive this in a logic context. we have to ask, what kind of governance does the taliban really want? certainly, they would want to have as many of the civil servants staying on as possible. but a good portion of the civil service is women. there is an immediate issue. also, we have to understand that the taliban like the administrative -- lack the administrative skills themselves. they're forming a council of people who will essentially be the ministers. but these people individually have no administrator of

experience. the only experience the taliban have had, because there was virtually no administration, it was left ngos and international agencies -- left ngos and international strategies. they have to decide now, to what extent do they really want to govern in any fashion like the republic? and they just may not have the capacity to do that. mohammed: marvin was making an important distinction, klisman. trying to run a country is very different they and -- than battlefield wins. is this something the taliban is going to be struggling with? >> for the last 20 years, the taliban has played defense. they have played the underdog in terms of who gets to control and administer the country. now that they are the status

quo, no longer are they on the edges. their excuse for not being there where the americas. moving on into the future, there are two big threats for the taliban, one internally and when externally. engine, we will see how they put people in places of power inside the country. also diplomatically, who they send as investors to other parts of the world. will they be accepted with open arms? externally, we already see the northern alliance rebel against the taliban now. i will fight to make sure the tele-mental secure control. that is another focus point for

the tele-band if they are going to rule successfully, which many hope they don't do well. mohammed: obviously, right now it's really unknown what's going to happen, how long it might take for the government to form. if the taliban is ultimately isolated internationally, are they going to be able to draw enough skilled people, talented people from inside afghanistan to carry out the kind of projects that are necessary to develop infrastructure and to govern the country? >> i think given the signals, the countries in the region, russia for example, china, many countries have signaled that they are willing to accept taliban control. afghanistan, they have said they are working to form an inclusive government. what i hear from regional countries is the taliban are unlikely to become a private

state, even if they keep up appearances, they don't have to deliver on their promises, but if they try to keep up appearances and read some sort o -- status full in terms of what they are saying and actions, they will have legitimacy by some countries. but europe and the u.s. may be willing to hold the taliban accountable to higher standards. we will likely see it split like that. and that kind of context, can the taliban govern? will they be able to generate enough investments and funds to keep the basic level of livelihood in the country and supper revolts basically against them? i think that remains a question to be answered. right now what i observe, when i talk to people in many parts of the country, safford told to come back in most places

-- staff are told to come back in most places but they may be told their salary is uncertain or cut. many were employed in education, receiving government salaries. half a million people. those people's future are in danger. the taliban have to be selective in terms of who they keep and they are likely to put their people who are already illogically aligned with them in positions who would undermine the competency of some of those is the duchenne's. the question you ask in terms of whether they will be able to find enough educated people to man the government and mix for the basic services are delivered, as we speak, that is bein -- that has been a challenge. it is hard to get credit cards in kabul, to actually maintain communication. we can see how that could happen. a lot of engineers, people who you need to keep communications running, need to keep

electricity grids running and water grids effective, airlines running, all of that requires skilled technical engineers. often many of them international, not local. all those people are at -- are either in hiding or left. the tele-banner going to have hard time convincing them to come back they don't deliver on the promises he made. we haven't seen those bold actions yet. mohammed: let me ask you how you believe this might impact the flow of humanitarian aid to afghanistan. obviously it's a dire situation right now, with many aid groups, you and agencies trying to raise hundreds of millions of dollars to help the population. the freezing of these assets, the fact that it will get more complicated to get money into the country, how will that impact delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid going forward? >> that is a great concern of mine. especially since all eyes are on

kabul airport. and we are not enough attention to the entire country. half a million people are dependent on government salaries. if the government does not have money to pay the salaries, what do those people do? and people sending money back home. they said they're going to stop operating in afghanistan until the situation improves. afghanistan is facing a drought. covid-19 is still going on. if it becomes complicated, for international aid organizations to work there, and we don't see commitments of different countries in terms of aid, afghanistan was receiving a lot of help to function the way it was functioning weeks ago. now it will be hard for many countries to convince their citizens that they will be sending money if the tele-been filled to the liver under promises of respecting women's rights. it may worsen already unfolding

humanitarian crises to the point that the tele-band may actually become even more oppressive -- the taliban may become actually even more oppressive. that is grown for more fighting. that will be exacerbated if people do not see a dividend from the stability and peace driving a lot of support. a lot of people right now are optimistic about the taliban because there is some sort of peace and most of the country. -- -- in most of the country. people may change their opinion if they begin to suffer as to what the taliban victory meant for the country. mohammed: marvin, what do you believe has to happen in order for the u.s. to ultimately unfreeze the assets and reserves and to make them available once more to the afghan central bank? >> that's been suggested by the speakers.

we are all looking at the performance of the taliban. it's important to point out here that we have to understand that they have inherited a political system, an economic system which is something far greater than they had ever had to deal with in the 1990's. now they have a complex, much larger population, cities in the 1990's were largely depopulated. they have taken on a challenge here, which not only are they ill prepared for, but conceptually, although they say they want to replicate what was accomplished, in terms of basic governance, the fact is, when it comes to the priorities, i believe they will put their ideological priorities very high on the scale. they are likely to resist,

even those decisions that they have to make, in order to create a more efficient administrative system if they feel it is violating some of their basic principles. so we are dealing here with a new government here, which has conceivably a much narrower view of what governments is -- governance is. and we are judging them internally about what a nationstate has to do. their ultimate destination here is a true genuine islamic state. and in their mode of thinking, it is wonderful to have all this assistance, we need it, we welcome it, we welcome other forms of financial assistance, certainly, but the question is, what are they willing to pay to receive it?

mohammed: what else could the taliban do in order to get their hands on funds and revenue streams? what other countries do you believe are going to be stepping into support of guinness tan -- going to be stepping in to support afghanistan? >> when it comes down to that question, apart from the initial activity that they have been engaged in, to fund themselves, they need more legitimate and much more revenue-generating forms of income. aid from the west has for now been frozen or cut. if you can't look west, you must look east. i don't think any major player, either china or russia, are prepared yet to do business with the taliban. because they still don't know the shape and the nature of what that will look like. and certainly, that pivot will be necessary for them to

maintain any kind of economic equilibrium that will allow them to at least govern in the short term. if you ask the chinese what the biggest opportunities are in afghanistan, mining, road initiatives to afghanistan, the russians do not have any economic gain to make right now out of afghanistan, it's more a strategic play for them, i believe. they always act counter to the u.s. to see that across the world, from libya to syria. that's the role that they will continue to play. but for sure, over the short to midterm, income will be a big focal point for the taliban, because it probably is not going to be enough to keep them above water. mohammed: is the tele-been worried by these moves --taliban were read by these moves to freeze the assets? do you think they can convince the u.s. and the rest of the

world to allow money and assets back into afghanistan? >> i think they are very concerned. and you can see that in the rhetoric of the spokesperson and other pro-taliban accounts. they will decouple domestic policies from international recognition. they are saying they are willing to act as a responsible member of the international community, meaning they will have a civilized country. and they will not attack any other countries in the region. in exchange, they want international recognition. they are saying, we get to decide our systems come our values, what kind of government and policy we them from. we are going to deal with you under international law, that's what they say, but you are required to leave us alone in terms of how we govern internally. obvious he that is not something that at least the u.s. and european countries are going to go along with, because they

would have to convince the population that they are -- the money they are setting to afghanistan -- sending to afghanistan, that they are respecting human rights of women and citizens. that's the biggest challenge they are facing. so far, one of the contradictory things, they wanted to benefit from the west, the aid, at the same time establish their emirate. now they have to make serious come from isis and come to grips with the reality of what choices they make. but afghan people in addition to the movement just have to wait and see. mohammed: we have run out of time, so we will have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to all of our guests, haroun rahimi, marvin weinbaum, and klisman murati. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com, and for further discussion go to our facebook page -- that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, mohammed jamjoom, and

the whole team here, bye for now. ♪ x■ç■ç?ñç [captions made possiblet

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