tensions between sudan's military and civilian factions, a coup. the prime minister says that a state of emergency has been imsed and the sovereign counsel and government restored. what does the road ahead look like for sudan? this is inside story. welcome to the program.

many people in sudan have been expecting a transition to democracy. it was promised by the country's generals and civilian leaders. perhaps shared power for too many years. sudan's army declared a state of emergency and arrested many political leaders. the prime minister has had them detained. they are setting the stage for a possible showdown with the armed forces. the internet and phone services were shut down and the airport closed. they are fighting for the military intervention. they have pledged to hold elections in 2023. >> we dissolved the sovereign counsel and cabinet and put an end to the mayor's jobs and under secretaries.

we will revise everything and take decisions toward everything. we urge everyone to abide by the agreement of june of 2020. we are quite sure that justice and peace must prevail. we must work hard to reach lasting solutions or people. -- for our people. >> sudan has been governed by a joint civilian luke perry. al bashir was ousted in 2019. it was part of a deal that included elections and transitioning to civilian rule. tensions grew after a coup attempt after followers of bashir came out. protesters took to the streets

to ask the army to take back control. on saturday, tens of thousands of people held protests to show solidarity with the government. let's bring in our guests. president and founder of the sudan policy forum. and the leader of the international crisis group. and alex in scotland. executive director of the world peace foundation and research professor at the school of law and policy. thank you for joining us. by dissolving the ruling council and the divisional government declaring a state of emergency, what is this leader trying to

say? >> if we could scrutinize the speech of this man -- of mr. burhan. there was a new document. there are three articles that have to do with issuing decrees. there is another that has to do with -- he has done away with this and has tried to do with this meckling the state and corruption. he had done away with investigating the crime.

at which point, we all remember the protests that used lethal weapons. there are some that are still missing. if you look at him removing those two important are dickens -- important things, it seems that there was no room for compromise. it seems the officers fear an investigation of the crime. this will weaken the -- they wanted to stop anything that would weaken their position of power. >> usa and the military

prosecution is trying to prevent any thing in the future. >> absolutely. >> is it fair to say that all the power-sharing deals and all of the architecture that was started post-april of 2019 ours -- are now scrapped? >> i do think that necessarily has to be the case. up until now, there had been considerable effort from all sides to somehow stay within the norms of the constitutional declaration and the agreement. even though there was very little in the way of implementation. i would not say this is entirely over. there have been efforts even for today to broker peace and in

accord between the three components of this transition. armed groups came in after the agreement. there have been efforts to try to put together a deal that would allow everyone to have a little bit of what they want. what we are seeing this morning is the tearing asunder of that effort. i would not say these institutions are over but they have been rocked. >> alex, when you look at the announcement, they are saying that the sovereign counsel goes along with the transitional government. the transitional military counsel that started in 2019 remains in power. burhan will remain the authority in sudan. he said he will form a

legislative council and ensure that elections would be held in 2023. it could be a clear message that you have to deal with me from now onwards. >> it is a naked, brutal power grab. no language that comes out of general brown -- burhan's mouth can mask that he is trying to tear up the aspirations of the sudanese people as expressed in the 2019 agreement. the democrats were ready to compromise with the military and allow the military to retain a considerable share of power. also, they were unable to rollback the military control over many commanding sectors of the economy. when they tried to do that and the prospect of the head of the

sovereign counsel was rotated, -- the city basically wants to seize power. he wants to return sudan to the status quo before the revolution. >> do you think the cohabitation that would be the civilians and the army in sudan is over because of the decision made today? >> absolutely. except for some things here and there, i don't think any individual with some credibility among the sudanese would be willing to work with this military. to critique the tactic, no one

would have imagined we would adopt this drastic methodology. it was the rapid forces that secured the areas that were sensitive. they were the ones that made an attempt of significant importance to the government. they helped burhan succeed in this could he talk -- coup de tas. i think there will be some divisions within the army. at which point there will be some very bloody confrontation between the army and the

opposition. if this fails, there will be a confrontation that feels very much subsided. >> it seems the army and the civilians ask if the civilian establishment -- what power the civilians have. >> very few. people have come out very speedily onto the streets to express their opposition and the military's unilateral takeover of power. this all began with collective action. it is all about delivering the prehistoric removal of al bashir. those tactics have worked

before. they compounded the military in many ways. along with collective action and a return to the proven structures, there is also in need for real championing of the messaging and causes that the people on the streets are going to want to see. they also have quite clear leadership throughout the revolution. they may pursue this approach again. >> it was not a secret that the military takeover was just going to be a matter of time. you look at the statements made by the military ■following the attempted coup last month but

the question is why would burhan go for these drastic measures when he knows that no one in the international committee would back this? they reject military takeovers. >> that is the main part of the puzzle. the one legitimate criticism that he may have had of the civilian government is it failed to deliver on economic stabilization. economic crisis in sudan remains dire. that is largely the resort to bully of international donors who are very slow in providing necessary assistance to stabilize the area. we have had debt rescheduling, debt relief, the beginnings of economic normalization. that can be credited to the civilian leadership. there is no chance the united

states, european union, world bank and etc. are going to come and say we don't mind having the democratic transition torn up. the other option would be to get some cash in hand from the saudi's and the morales. -- saudis and emirates. this is not just call for dialogue but it called for a return to the constitutional agreement of 2019. i think it is not likely that the arab league would have gotten very much out of step with the egyptians. it is unclear to me where possible foreign financial support for general burhan's ap proach will come from. >> there are different key players from the eu denouncing the decisions made by burhan.

could this become sanctions? >> i think burhan would not have attempted this coup d'etat. this is a country trying to make a transition to democracy. this is a region dominated by autocrats. they don't like democracy but they do have space for islamists. it is not clear if burhan will in the absence of any clinical and social grounding, he may just go back to coalescing with the islamists.

if he does such a thing, that is two sides. let's pay her in mind that some of the european special envoys -- we don't know if they have given wuhan the green light or whether they stipulated some conditions here. the situation is worsening. conditions are bad. there is a need for them to come in. there is already $3 billion coming from the world bank but it is not clear if the civilians have the capacity needed to prepare for such a task.

>> burhan made it clear that he wants to preserve the agreement that was signed with the turkey factions operating their. d -- there. do you think these factions will be willing to be part of an establishment when we knew from the beginning we are always skeptical of the military -- they were always skeptical of the military? they said that -- do you think that if they said to hell with the civilians, sudan would be a different place to live in? >> what i found was a set of gentlemen who were in many ways much more concerned about ending up on the side of the winter -- winner. there was the concerns that the civilians may not have the strength and wherewithal to

deliver the transition. use of the finance mr. and head of the justice movement take off in their own direction. as densely in the direction of the military because they feel were they to be faced with elections and an open test of their popularity the transition is meant to create that they would lose very badly. they would not be competitive candidates. rather than standing behind the values that put them against the government, they decided to hew much more toward the military. they have had a much more sustained run at power.

>> it was quite obvious for some time in sudan that the military establishment is trying to bribe tribal leaders, to try to influence the decision makers. to what extent could that be helpful in the near future? we have been talking about a country that has been set for years. >> we call it the political marketplace. just buying off the tribal elders. i am sure that is what burhan is going to try to do. he faces the problem that he cannot buy off the international community.

the two most significant armed groups, the sudan liberation -- they had not yet bought into the agreement. there is a very real risk that the active armed conflict will not resume at scale. al burhan is not just risking the entire democratic transition but he is also jeopardizing the completion of an incomplete peace process. >> if you don't mind, those moderate civilians who hoped this could be conducive to a general democracy in sudan, when they saw what happened, what they described as a betrayal by

the army chief, do you think this could lead then to a more aggressive stance in the future? >> i believe that they are going to maintain peaceful tactics. however, my fear comes from the fact that the people are already out in the streets. they are adamantly against this coup d'etat. this could lead to some large head. -- this could lead to change. we are talking about a

nationwide protest. i just pray to god that things won't go to this extent. >> the army is not a cohesive entity in sudan. you have the professional soldiers, those who were loyal to the al bashir. you have many considered an outsider. do you think that they can move forward united under burhan? >> the events of the last few weeks have been incredibly shortsighted. they are all based on very short-term interests. windows short-term interests do not serve the state anymore, they will have to go look for new partners. i think those divisions are

destined to divide the military. i think one underappreciated component here was egypt's integral role in bringing the sudan armed forces back together. >> this is exactly the dream that burhan and the tmc were trying to sell to the people of sudan. if you go along with us for the transitional period, we will offer peace and stability and we will be a much stronger nation going into the future. do you feel that everything has been completely shattered and do you think the country is in total limbo? >> i think burhan's credibility is at an all-time low. he does not speak with the authority of a man who can be trusted or iman that commands the political landscape.

once help in the coming weeks is the military had shown its hand. -- one step in the coming weeks is the military has shown his hand. sunnis, grants from two years ago -- the revolution can be accomplished and the military can be reduced to its much smaller role. >> they were basically saying they hope to put an end to a long era of military coups. it seems we have to wait. it seems we have a long way to go before we will see more peaceful civilian government in that part of the world. thank you very much for your insight.

we look forward to hearing more from you in the future. you can see the program at any time. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for the entire team, by for now. -- bye bye for now. ççgççococqqqqqqqaaiiiayyykkkkkkk

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